sfdc’s first annual business resource summit
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SFDC’s First Annual Business Resource Summit. The Shape of the Economic Recovery. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy, George Mason University. November 17, 2009. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SFDC’s First Annual BusinessResource Summit
November 17, 2009
The Shape of the Economic Recovery
Stephen S. Fuller, PhDDwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Public Policy, George Mason University
U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2011
%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Global Insight
Forecast > > > > > > > >
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices
Non-Mfg
Mfg
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs - USTHOUSANDS
Oct 09 =- 5.5 Mil
Source: BLS Establishment Survey
000s
US Job ChangeMonth-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted
Oct
Source: BLS
Initial Unemployment Claims000s
(4-week moving average)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Seasonally Adjusted
Oct = 10.2 %
Housing Trends:New & Existing Home Sales
Existing(left scale)
New
(Right Scale)
(000s) (000s)
Interest Rates2001 - 2014
Forecast > > > > > >
Consumer Confidence
100
Present Situation
Expectations
Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Leading Index
2006 2007 2008 2009
The Washington Economy
%
Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
GDP/GRP 2000 - 2014
Washington
U.S.
Thousands
Annual Change in JobsWashington Metro Area
1991 - 2008
Avg. = 45,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Sep 08 – Sep 09
(000s)
Washington – 37,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA
000s
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2008 2009
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorSep 2008 – Sep 2009
Washington MSA(000s)
Total - 37,000
Source: BLS March 2009 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Unemployment Rate
%
Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted
U.S.
Washington
9.5
6.2
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment Rate
September 2009%
US 9.5
Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted
6.2
Total Active Listings Per SaleOctober Each Year
LDN
PW
FFX
ARLDC
MONT
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern Virginia
All Housing Types%
Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2007 2008 2009
Economic Forecast
Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
D.C.D.C. 5.35.3 4.2 4.2 3.03.0 4.84.8 6.86.8 6.46.4 7.07.0 7.57.5
Sub. MDSub. MD 4.84.8 3.43.4 -8.5-8.5 7.27.2 8.78.7 10.610.6 13.013.0 15.115.1
No. VANo. VA 13.2 9.0 -15.5 12.9 19.4 25.4 27.6 30.7
REGION 23.323.3 16.616.6 -21.0-21.0 23.923.9 34.934.9 42.442.4 47.647.6 53.353.3
Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 45,000
Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2014Washington Area and Sub-state Portions
(Annual % Change)%
DCSMMSANV
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
www.cra-gmu.org
Cardinal Bank & George Mason University 18th Annual Economic Conference
Friday, January 15, 2010