shortland waters-proposal

Synergy Business Centre

PO Box 5335, Wollongong NSW 2520

Level 1, 1 Burelli Street, Wollongong NSW 2500

P: 02 4254 1054

F: 02 4254 1001

W: www.chamberdevelopments.com.au

“The Waters” Retirement Living Development Proposal

CHAMBER DEVELOPMENTS 210 March 2010

Contents

Location 4

Access 5• By Car 5

• By Bus 5

• By Train 5

• By Plane 5

Capacity 6

Council Support 8

Local Services and Activities 9• Hospitals 9

• Shopping Centres 9

• The University of Newcastle 9

• Shortland Waters Golf Club 10

• The Forum Sport and Aquatic Centre 10

• Volunteering 11

• The Hunter Valley 11

Demographics 12• Current Demographics 12

• Projected Population Growth 12

Retirement Living in Newcastle 13

Real Estate Sales History – Newcastle 15• Median House and Unit Sales 16

• Recent Sales in Newcastle 16

Construction Schedule 17

Resources 17

Reports 17

Qualifier 17

Appendices 18• Appendix A 18

• Appendix B 21

• Appendix C 49

• Appendix D 59


Chamber Developments is proud to propose “The Waters” Retirement Living Project for your consideration. We believe this project has the opportunity to provide a financially viable, sustainable and, most importantly, engaging retirement community for the population of Newcastle and its surrounding suburbs.

“The Waters” (our working title) will be the latest in resort-style retirement living for discerning retirees who wish to pursue their interests and hobbies in a modern, sophisticated environment.

“The Waters” is perfectly positioned on the grounds of a popular golfing facility. As part of the development of the site, Chamber Developments will be constructing a new Golf Clubhouse which will feature a bistro, gaming rooms, bar and conference facilities as well as upgrading the golf course. In addition, a motel will be built, serving not only golfing tourists and visitors to the conference centre, but also the families and friends of the residents of “The Waters” who will be able to visit in ease and comfort.

10 March 2010

Location

“The Waters” in relation to NSW

“The Waters” in relation to Newcastle

CHAMBER DEVELOPMENTS 4

“The Waters” in relation to Newcastle

The proposed “The Waters” Retirement Living Project is situated on approximately seven hectares of land which fronts the Shortland Waters Golf Club and adjoins the University of Newcastle and “The Forum” Health and Aquatic Centre. “The Waters”’ prominent location between the University, Golf Club and Health and Aquatic Centre

ensures residents will have access to a broad range of activities outside of the environs of the retirement precinct itself. Chamber Developments believe this unique location will ensure the Village will garner much interest from potential residents interested in pursuing active and fulfi lling lives in retirement.

“The Waters”

“The Waters”


Access

By CarThe proposed project is 12 kilometres from Newcastle CBD and two hours from Sydney on the F3. The site is adjacent to the F3 Sydney to Newcastle extension, ensuring ease of access for families located in either city. In addition, the thriving communities of Hunter Valley and Port Stephens are also within easy distance of the project.

By BusResidents of “The Waters” Retirement Living Project will enjoy ease of travel thanks to the well-serviced University of Newcastle campus. The university is serviced by regular buses to Newcastle and the surrounding suburbs, including:

• Newcastle City

• Charlestown

• Lake Macquarie

• Glendale

• Cessnock / Kurri Kurri

• Raymond Terrace

• Medowie / Stockton

• Port Stephens

• North Coast.

By TrainThe site is easily accessible by public transport with the University / Warabrook Station only 500 metres away. This station is fully disabled accessible. Trains leave regularly from this station for:

• Newcastle City

• Maitland

• Lake Macquarie

• Central Coast / Sydney

• Taree / Dungog

• Upper Hunter Valley

• Brisbane.

By PlaneFor inter-state and international families, Newcastle Williamtown Airport is located approximately 25 kilometres from the proposed site. It is the fastest growing regional airport in Australia with over one million people travelling via the airport in 2009.


Capacity “The Waters” Retirement Living Project is capable of providing the full range of accommodation options. Potential residents will enjoy the fl exibility of choice and can be assured there will be an accommodation type to suit their needs.

New Site Plan


Chamber Development’s concept design is for:

Precinct B – Existing Club Site (to be demolished)

• Commercial 1500m²

• Independent Living Units 90 units

- 22% – 3 bed

- 56% – 2 bed

- 22% – 1 bed

• Golf Course Villas 22 units

- 10% – 3 bed

- 90% – 2 bed

Precinct C – Seniors Living• Low/Highcare 130 single room units (30m²/room) 3900m²

• Community/Admin Facility 1500m²

• Commercial/Lifestyle/Health 500m²

• Independent Living Units 180 units

- 22% – 3 bed

- 56% – 2 bed

- 22% – 1 bed

• Golf Course Villas 54 units

- 10% – 3 bed

- 90% – 2 bed

Precinct A – New Club Site• Golf club 1500m²

• Proshop and Storage 500m²

• Recreation and Lifestyle 800m²

• Multipurpose Function Centre 1200m²

• Motel 60 rooms 2000m²

These plans are a Concept Design and have been developed by BHI Architects in response to Chamber Development’s studies of the site and market. However, should you wish to proceed with the project, we look forward to the opportunity to further develop these plans jointly with you in order to ensure final plans are suitable to your needs prior to submission of the Development Application.


Council SupportThe site currently has Development Approval for the construction of tourist and residential units. However, Chamber Developments believes that these plans are unsuitable and have therefore proposed layout which will require a new Development Application.

Consultation with town planners Worley Parsons indicate that the proposed plan is within the purpose of the Newcastle Environmental Plan 2003 (NLEP 2003) and the State Environmental Planning Policy Local Housing for Seniors or People with a Disability, 2004 (Housing for Seniors SEPP). In initial discussions with Newcastle City Council, their Town Planners advise that the proposed plan is much more sustainable than the previously approved plan (See Appendix A).

View to Clubhouse


Local Services and Activities

HospitalsThe Hunter region is serviced by a robust Hunter New England Health Service which is currently investing $1.18 billion of State Government funds in the delivery of capital works projects across the region. The Calvary Mater Hospital is just 5.2 kilometres from “The Waters” and the John Hunter Hospital is just 6.4 kilometres, in addition to a number of day and private hospitals within a fi ve-kilometre radius of the project. “The Waters”’ location near excellent, recently upgraded local hospitals will be very desirable to potential residents.

Shopping CentresResidents of “The Waters” will have excellent access to four local shopping precincts and centres within an eight-kilometre radius of the site. These centres are:

• Shortland Shops – 400 metres away

• Stockland Jesmond Shopping Centre –2.1 kilometres away

• Stockland Wallsend Shopping Centre – 4.4 kilometres away

• Westfi eld Kotara Shopping Centre –8 kilometres away.

The University of NewcastleThe location of “The Waters” adjacent to the University of Newcastle offers residents the opportunity for further learning and personal development on their doorstep.

The university is recognised as the leading tertiary education provider in the Hunter Region. It prides itself on its diverse demographic, with over half the enrolled students being mature age. There is a thriving support network for mature age students to ensure they get the most out of their studies and university life.

Liaison between the Shortland Waters Golf Club and the University in the preparation of the existing Development Approval show that the university is extremely supportive of the development of the course precinct. The University foresees positive additional patronage of the University facilities by residents as well as additional facilities for the University attendees to utilise. At the time of writing, Chamber Developments is awaiting a meeting with the University to discuss the proposed plan.

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Location of Local Hospitals in relation to “The Waters” Retirement Living Project

Key

A Newcastle Private Hospital

B William Lane Day Hospital

C John Hunter Public Hospital

D Calvary Mater Hospital

E Lindgard Private Hospital

F Christo Road Private Hospital

“The Waters”

A

C

BF

E

D


Recreational Activities

Shortland Waters Golf ClubShortland Waters Golf Club is a privately owned club with an 18-hole, par 71, 5,931-metre golf course. Established in 1935, the course has a strong local history and was the social mecca for nearby steelworkers.

In association with the development of the “The Waters” Retirement Living Project, the Golf Clubhouse will be completely rebuilt. In addition, the course itself will be upgraded. The brand new facilities will draw golfing enthusiasts to the area, and golfing retirees to the “The Waters”.

The Clubhouse will provide residents of “The Waters” with excellent services, including a bistro, bar and gaming facilities. In addition there will be conference rooms which residents can hire for events and functions. A motel will be constructed with the new clubhouse, providing families and friends and the residents with superb short-term accommodation close to the “The Waters”.

The Forum Sport and Aquatic Centre“The Waters” is located just 200 metres from “The Forum” Sport and Aquatic Centre. The centre is on the grounds of the University of Newcastle and services the fitness needs of students and residents of surrounding suburbs.

The Centre has:

• An Olympic standard eight-lane, 50-metre swimming pool which is heated in the winter

• Aerobics studios

• 90 group fitness classes a week in the pool and studios

• Regular health and wellness seminars

• Private training studios

• Tennis centre

• Squash complex

• Five sport ovals.

Residents of “The Waters” will enjoy access to this facility, with improved health and wellbeing through fitness and physical activities.


VolunteeringChamber Developments recognises that giving something back to the community will be important to many of the residents of “The Waters”. Located in the immediate area is the extremely popular Hunter Wetlands Centre, where many local residents volunteer.

“The Hunter Wetlands Centre Australia is a vibrant wetland ecosystem bursting with life. The site is regarded as a wetland of national and international importance and the centre enjoys a growing reputation for excellence in wetland conservation, education and ecotourism.” (Source: The Hunter Wetlands Centre website.) The centre actively encourages volunteering and has an extremely professional and robust volunteering network for people wishing to contribute both indoors and outdoors.

The Hunter Valley“The Waters” is located 45 kilometres from the famous Hunter Valley region – one of Australia’s oldest and one of its most well-known wine regions. The Hunter is a popular tourist and holiday location which features over 60 restaurants, 120 wineries, 160 accommodation venues and a vast range of activities, including visiting cellar doors, antique stores or visiting historic towns and indigenous sites.

In addition to being famous for food and wine, the Hunter Valley has also made a name for producing some of the most spectacular events. There are festivals celebrating the local produce, such as Lovedale Long Lunch and Semillon and Seafood and concerts featuring the world’s top musicians, including Jazz in the Vines and Opera in the Vineyards.


DemographicsCurrent demographicsThe total population of Newcastle and Hunter Region is, according to figures released by Global PDC Demographics and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, growing significantly year on year, with an average growth rate of 0.6%. The most significant increase is in the pre-retirement

years of 55–64, with 2.6%, as shown in the table below. (These figures are current to the last census in 2006.)

These figures indicate there will be a strong on-going market for retirement living as the pre-retirement segment of the population moves into the retirement bracket.

Newcastle 1996 2001 2006Average Annual

Change 1996-2006

0–14 years 23,684 24,336 24,320 0.3%

15–24 years 21,614 20,545 21,757 0.1%

25–39 years 30,435 29,960 29,725 -0.2%

40–54 years 24,059 27,083 28,922 1.9%

55–64 years 11,339 12,342 14,623 2.6%

65+ years 22,458 22,355 22,405 0.0%

Total 133,589 136,621 141,752 0.6%

Projected population growthThe population of the Hunter Region is predicted to grow in the coming decades, with the older population (ages 60 years and over) expected to increase from 21.4% of the total population in 2006 to 27.9% of the total population

by 2026. This will create a pressure on housing availability in the retirement sector in particular and on organisations providing aged care.

Demographics in the Region of Newcastle. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics 1996 and 2006

The demographics of the Hunter region as a whole is recognised to be aging. The ratio of the number of people aged 65 years and over to the number of working age people aged 15–64 years is higher in the Hunter Region than anywhere else in NSW with 25 per cent compared with 21 per cent respectively. It has been recognised that the “major challenges of the future … are the need to provide the infrastructure and services required for the aging population” (“Newcastle and the Hunter Region 2008–2009”, Hunter Valley Research Foundation, pg. 9, attached as Appendix B).The Hunter Region has a higher percentage of over 55s compared with NSW as a whole – 27.4% to 24.4%. As

can be seen in the table below, there are significant percentage differences between the Hunter Region and NSW, suggesting that there will be a greater demand for retirement living in the Hunter than elsewhere in the state.

It is also worth noting that, according to the Hunter Valley Research Foundation, there was an increase in the male population in the older years over the last decade, suggesting a substantial improvement in men’s health and there is the expectancy that men’s health in the region will continue to improve, placing an even higher demand on retirement housing.

Hunter NSW

Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Proportion of Total

Population

Total Change ‘96–‘06

Proportion of Total

Population

Total Change ‘96—‘06

55—59 years 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 51.9% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 45.8%

60–64 years 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 38.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 32.7%

65–69 years 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 5.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 6.8%

70–74 years 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 31.0% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 26.3%

75–79 years 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 31.0% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 26.3%

80–84 years 2.1% 2.9% 2.5% 52.5% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% 43.5%

85+ years 1.2% 2.6% 1.9% 71.6% 1.1% 2.3% 1.7% 61.6%

Total % of population

22.8% 29.1% 27.4% 23.1% 25.8% 24.4%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census for Population and Housing, 1996 and 2006


Retirement Living in NewcastleChamber Developments completed a survey of retirement villages in Newcastle and to confi rm it’s fi ndings commissioned Robden Property Services to conduct a survey and report on its fi ndings (See Appendix C – Robden Property Services and Capability Statement). The report indicates there is currently a range of retirement villages within a 25-kilometre radius of the proposed “The Waters” Retirement Living Project. The vast majority are villages that are 10 to 15 years old.

There appears to be seven main retirement villages within the specifi ed radius of “The Waters”. These villages are both privately run and not-for-profi ts and offer varying standards of living for residents.

Greenleaf Belmont NorthThis village is within 10 kilometres of “The Waters” and is currently selling units in Stage 2 of the project. There are currently 44 completed units in Stages 1 and 2 with a planned total of 97 units when all stages have been completed. This village is approximately fi ve years old and has seen reasonably strong sales with two-bedroom units selling for an average of $415,000 and three-bedroom units selling for an average of $435,000.

The units are average 90–100 square metres for a two-bedroom unit with a single lock-up garage. In addition, some units also have a parking bay or carport.

The site could be considered to have distant ocean views from some spots, although the terrain is reasonably hilly and while construction is ongoing, the landscaping is minimal. It is located close to a moderate sized shopping centre.

Greenleaf Ashton Gardens, East Maitland This village is approximately 20 kilometres from Shortland and was opened in 2003. Ashton Gardens consists of 57 two- and three-bedroom units. The prices of the units are comparable to Belmont North. The village is located adjacent to the New England Highway and is close to a large shopping centre. The site does not have any advantageous outlooks but does have a private hospital nearby.

Greenleaf Terrace Gardens, Raymond TerraceTerrace Gardens is approximately 20 kilometres from Shortland and was opened in 2005. It is smaller than the other Greenleaf facilities with only 20 units on site and no more construction is planned.

Bayside, Bonnells BayBayside opened in 1997 and is located approximately 15 kilometres from “The Waters”. The village is operated by Lend Lease Prime Life, who have a large portfolio of villages scattered up the eastern sea board.

It has 237 two- and three-bedroom units, with the two-bedroom units currently selling for $300,000. Bayside is located close to Lake Macquarie with many onsite facilities including 24-hour call assistance, landscaped gardens and a village bus. It is located fi ve kilometres from a major shopping area.

Key

A Greenleaf Belmont North

B Greenleaf Ashton Gardens, East Maitland

C Greenleaf Terrace Gardens, Raymond Terrace

D Bayside, Bonnells Bay

E Maroba, Waratah

F Bolton Point RSL Care

G C A Brown Booragul

A

B C

D

E

FG

“The Waters”


Maroba, WaratahMaroba is operated by a not-for-profit organisation and is the only retirement living development within a 25-kilometre radius that has both low care and high care facilities co-existing with independent living units on the same site. Waratah is an inner suburb of Newcastle and the village has views across Newcastle to the coast.

The independent living village first opened 10 years ago and a second stage was completed in the last five years. Maroba consists mostly of two-bedroom units with a few one- and three-bedroom units. There are a total of 40 units in the facility with two-bedroom units selling for $325,000. There is a planned addition to the village of a five-storey serviced apartment block with extensive city and coastal views. These apartments will be two- and three-bedrooms and up to 110 square metres. The operator is hoping to achieve a yield in the vicinity of another 40 units, subject to Council approvals.

Bolton Point RSL CareAmong the other villages in the area, the largest is Bolton Point RSL Care with around 60 units on site. These units have extensive views of Lake Macquarie and are approximately 15 kilometres from Shortland. The village underwent refurbishment approximately six years ago. Sales of two-bedroom units is believed to be in the mid-$300,000s, however the operator was not in a position to reveal current prices due to the licence agreement arrangement which sees prices matched to clients’ wealth.

C A Brown BooragulThis is also a not-for-profit complex run by the Anglican Church and has a high- and low-care facility attached. Many of the units are more than 20 years old, however a number were refurbished approximately eight years ago. The village does not have any significant views and is located close to the main northern rail line and is subject to constant train noise. Prices in this village range from the mid-$100,000s for an older one-bedroom unit to $300,000 for newer two- and three-bedroom units.

Market observations indicate that prospective buyers are requiring two-bedroom units as a minimum, with three-bedroom units becoming increasingly popular as this allows family and, more frequently, grandchildren to visit and stay with ease and comfort. The not-for-profit sector is struggling to find a ready market with ageing units. Yet some prospective residents regard the Church organisations as providing continuity of care from independent living units through to higher care as they age.

The result is a split in the Newcastle market – Church organisations which are operating retirement living as complete campuses (including low and high care) and private organisations which supply the market as “Over 55” villages. The majority of these “over 55s” villages offer a lifestyle to retirees, rather than aged care. Prospective residents can be enticed from their suburban homes to units providing the complex offers an open and active lifestyle, with facilities that appeals to an active and interested group of retirees.

A sample of brochures for these villages can be found in Appendix D.


Real Estate Sale History – Newcastle

Median sale prices in Newcastle

Median House Price

Median Unit Price

2001

$500K

$400K

$300K

$0K2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010

Supply and Demand for properties in Newcastle

Advertised properties (Supply) People looking (Demand)

1,500

500

0

1,000

Sep 09 Oct 09 Nov 09 Dec 09 Jan 10

150

100

50

0

Median house and unit prices in Newcastle have enjoyed steady gains in the last ten years, with the median house price rising from $357,000 in 2001 to $600,000 in 2009. Units have also seen gains, rising from $309,000 in 2001

to $410,000 in 2009. In addition, as can be seen from the graph below (with the exception of a traditional pre-Christmas dip), demand for the property in Newcastle is meeting or outstripping supply.

10 March 2010

Median House and Unit Sales

Recent Sales in Newcastle

YearMedian House

PriceHouse Price % Change (YoY)

Median Unit PriceUnit Price % Change (YoY)

2001 $357,000 35.4% $309,000 -13.0%

2002 $370,000 3.6% $369,000 19.4%

2003 $365,900 -1.1% $449,000 21.7%

2004 $535,000 46.2% $510,000 13.6%

2005 $346,750 -35.2% $450,000 -11.8%

2006 $545,000 57.2% $552,521 22.8%

2007 $555,000 1.8% $445,000 19.5%

2008 $640,000 15.3% $416,000 -6.5%

2009 $600,000 -6.3% $410,000 -1.4%

Address Type Price Sale Type Beds Sale Date

12 Perkins Street House $495,000 Normal Sale - 23/12/09

307/4 Honeysuckle Dr Unit $440,000 Normal Sale 2 09/12/09

38 Wolfe St House $650,000 Normal Sale - 15/12/09

307/4 Honeysuckle Dr Unit $440,000 Normal Sale 2 09/12/09

36 Wolfe St House $650,000 Normal Sale 3 30/11/09

38 Wolfe St House $650,000 Normal Sale - 15/12/09

37 Perkins St House $440,000 Normal Sale 2 29/10/09

35 Perkins St House $400,000 Normal Sale 2 07/10/09

Source: MyRPData.com

Source: MyRPData.com

CHAMBER DEVELOPMENTS 16


Construction ScheduleIt is envisaged that “The Waters” project would be constructed in stages. As Chamber Developments will be required to rebuild the clubhouse and those golf holes that will be consumed by the project, it will be necessary to integrate construction schedules to allow the uninterrupted operation of the golf club and course.

ResourcesIn the preparation of its projects, Chamber Developments has an association with, and draws on the resources of:

• BHI – Architects

• Coffey Projects – Project Managers

• Dean Dransfield – Hotel and Resort Consultants

• HWL Ebsworth – Solicitors

• JBA – Urban Planning

• Miller & Miller Strategic Communications Consultants

• Mitchell Brandtman – Quantity Surveyors

• Richard Chamberlain – Golf Course Architect

• Robden Property Services – Retirement Living Consultant

• Whelans Insites – Surveyors and Development Consultants

• Worley Parsons – Urban and Town Planning

ReportsThe following reports were completed as part of two Development Applications which were approved for Tourism at Shortland Waters Golf Club. These reports are to be updated as a requirement for the new Development Applications for the redevelopment of the club house, golfing facilities and The Waters Retirement Village. These reports may be used to gain knowledge of the site and will be made available on request.

• Bushfire Threat Assessment by Harper Sommer O’Sullivan, dated July 2005

• Contamination Testing Report by Douglas Partners, dated July 2005

• Drainage Plan & Report by Geoff Craig & Associates

• Ecological Assessment by Warren Brown, dated 11 July 2005

• Geotechnical Investigation by Douglas Partners, dated July 2005

• Landscape Design Report by Verge Landscape Architects

• Noise Impact Assessment by Hunter Land Holdings Pty Ltd, dated July 2005

• Traffic Assessment Report by LB Dowling & Associates Pty Ltd, dated 14 July 2005

Qualifier This Development Proposal has been prepared solely for information purposes and to assist the purchaser in evaluating the offer proposed recognising that it may not contain all the required information. Neither Chamber Developments or its advisers have independently verified all of the information or data contained in this Development Proposal. Certain information contained in this Development Proposal has been supplied by Shortland Waters Golf Club and consultants engaged by it. These consultants are not presently engaged by Chamber Developments. It is anticipated that the purchaser will make its own investigations and analysis of the offer and the contents of this Development Proposal.


Appendix A –

Worley Parsons Report


Shortland Waters meeting notes 2 Mar 2010.doc

Incorporating

Planning Workshop Australia

Proposed Shortland Waters Development

Meeting with Newcastle City Council Officers 2 March 2010

In attendance:

[DJ]- Damian Jaegar, Senior Development Officer/ Town Planner, Newcastle City Council (NCC)

[DR]- David Reiner, Senior Development Officer (Acting Development Building Coordinator), NCC

[BB]- Brian Brown, Director, Chamber Developments

[MS]- Mark Stone, Director, Chamber Developments

[KT]- Kevin Taylor, Director, Chamber Developments

[GF]- Garry Fielding, NSW Manager Planning & Approvals, WorleyParsons

GF provided an outline of the development proposal for the Shortland Waters site,

referring to the Preliminary Masterplan prepared by bhi Architecture. He indicated the

intention to develop a new clubhouse, function centre and restaurant in the portion of the

site the subject of Council’s consent for tourist accommodation near the western boundary

of the site, immediately to the south-west of the Chichester pipeline; the development of

approximately 250 seniors’ housing Self-Contained Dwellings adjacent to the southern

and south-western boundary of the site; a nursing home within the south-eastern corner of

the site; and a medical centre and convenience shops, either adjacent to the proposed

nursing home or in the south-western corner of the site. It was also indicated that the two

fairways displaced by the proposed development adjacent to the south-eastern boundary

of the site, would be relocated to the Council owned land (former garbage tip) immediately

to the north-east of the site.

GF indicated that the proposed development was permissible under the Newcastle Local

Environmental Plan 2003 (NLEP 2003) and the State Environmental Planning Policy

(Housing for Seniors or People with a Disability) 2004 (Housing for Seniors SEPP),

referring particularly to the provisions of the SEPP concerning seniors’ housing on land

used for the purposes of an existing registered club.

GF outlined the locational advantages the site offered for seniors’ housing development,

noting its close proximity to the facilities at the University of Newcastle, including the

Forum indoor sports centre and pool and the University library. He also referred to the

potential for the site to utilise the nearby Warabrook train station.

DJ responded by confirming the permissibility of the proposed development under NLEP

2003 and the SEPP. He indicated the need to address bushfire protection measures,

noise impacts associated with the railway line and overall traffic management. He

particularly noted the need to avoid road links to the University road system that would

encourage ‘rat runs’ from the University to the bridge access across Jesmond Bypass

Road.


Shortland Waters meeting notes 2 Mar 2010.doc 2 4 March 2010

Incorporating

Planning Workshop Australia

BB and KT advised that the development could be undertaken in stages, with the first

stage comprising the new clubhouse/ function centre and the relocation of the two

fairways onto the land currently owned by NCC. They also indicated they had received

support for the proposal through discussions with University officials.

GF advised that the next step in the planning process was to lodge an application for a

Site Compatibility Certificate with the Department of Planning (DoP). Assuming this would

be granted by DoP, a further meeting with Council officers would then be arranged to

discuss in detail the development proposed for the site.

Notes prepared by GF.


Appendix B –

“Newcastle and the Hunter Region 2008–2009”, Hunter Valley Research Foundation Report


Newcastle and the Hunter Region 2008 – 2009 1

Population and demography

The growth of the regional population is considered according to major sub-regions in the Hunter (the Lower Hunter, Upper Hunter and Other Hunter), followed by a summary for the Region as a whole. The population of the Lower Hunter totalled 493,462 persons in 2006. The most populous local government areas (LGAs) were Lake Macquarie (183,139) and Newcastle (141,752). Over the 10 years between 1996 and 2006: • The population of the sub-Region grew at an average annual rate of 0.9

per cent, slightly higher than the rate for the whole of the Hunter Region (0.8 per cent) and equivalent to the average rate of growth for the State.

• The fastest growing LGAs were Maitland and Port Stephens, increasing

at an average annual rate of 2.1 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively. • The slowest growing LGAs were Cessnock, where the population

increased at an average rate of 0.3 per cent per annum, followed by Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, each with an average rate of growth of 0.6 per cent per annum.

The chart below compares growth rates in each of the Lower Hunter LGAs, the sub-Region in total, the Hunter and State. Details of the age distribution in the Lower Hunter are provided in the table over.

Age distribution and growth 1996 – 2006 Lower Hunter

Average annual rate of population change, Lower Hunter, 1996 - 2006

2.1%

1.7%

0.6% 0.6%

0.3%

0.9% 0.8% 0.9%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Maitland PortStephens

Newcastle LakeMacquarie

Cessnock LowerHunter total

Hunter NSW

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing , 1996 and 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0


2 Newcastle and the Hunter Region 2008 – 2009

1996 2001 2006

Average annual change '96–'06 1996 2001 2006

Average annual change '96–'06

Cessnock Lake Macquarie

0-14 years 10,553 10,218 10,043 -0.5% 38,099 37,809 35,872 -0.6%

15-24 years 6,167 5,880 5,875 -0.5% 22,955 22,684 23,158 0.1%

25-39 years 9,744 8,999 8,707 -1.1% 35,613 34,004 31,326 -1.3%

40-54 years 8,951 9,820 9,725 0.8% 35,846 38,992 39,066 0.9%

55-64 years 3,557 4,354 5,575 4.6% 15,989 19,147 22,969 3.7%

65+ years 5,763 6,106 6,281 0.9% 24,223 27,679 30,748 2.4%

Total 44,735 45,377 46,206 0.3% 172,725 180,315 183,139 0.6%

Maitland Newcastle

0-14 years 12,520 12,983 14,208 1.3% 23,684 24,336 24,320 0.3%

15-24 years 7,362 7,626 8,430 1.4% 21,614 20,545 21,757 0.1%

25-39 years 11,351 11,290 12,553 1.0% 30,435 29,960 29,725 -0.2%

40-54 years 10,111 11,664 12,960 2.5% 24,059 27,083 28,922 1.9%

55-64 years 3,628 4,717 6,495 6.0% 11,339 12,342 14,623 2.6%

65+ years 5,352 6,110 7,235 3.1% 22,458 22,355 22,405 0.0%

Total 50,324 54,390 61,881 2.1% 133,589 136,621 141,752 0.6%

Port Stephens Lower Hunter total

0-14 years 12,258 12,791 12,585 0.3% 97,114 98,137 97,028 0.0%

15-24 years 6,220 6,501 7,101 1.3% 64,318 63,236 66,321 0.3%

25-39 years 11,157 11,026 10,056 -1.0% 98,300 95,279 92,367 -0.6%

40-54 years 9,679 11,654 12,577 2.7% 88,646 99,213 103,250 1.5%

55-64 years 4,868 6,361 7,933 5.0% 39,381 46,921 57,595 3.9%

65+ years 6,964 8,438 10,232 3.9% 64,760 70,688 76,901 1.7%

Total 51,146 56,771 60,484 1.7% 452,519 473,474 493,462 0.9%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 1996 and 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0 The age distribution shown in the table above illustrates the ageing of the Lower Hunter population. Between 1996 and 2006: • In the sub-Region overall, the population aged 40 and over increased (at

an average rate of 2.1 per cent per annum), while the population aged below 40 declined (by 0.2 per cent per annum on average).

• Maitland was the only LGA in which the population aged below 40

increased (at an average annual rate of 1.2 per cent). Despite this growth, the increase in the older population (3.4 per cent per annum on average) substantially out-stripped that of the younger cohort.

• The size of the younger population (below 40) remained relatively stable

in Port Stephens and Newcastle, while it declined in both Cessnock and Lake Macquarie at an average rate of 0.7 per cent per annum.

Age distribution and change, Lower Hunter, 1996 - 2006



• Among the under 40s, the age group with the greatest rate of decline (or slowest rate of increase) was the 25 to 39 year olds, the age range in which most women have children.

The chart below compares rates of growth of the under 40 and 40 and over age cohorts in each of the Lower Hunter LGAs.

The population of the Upper Hunter totalled 50,152 persons in 2006, with Singleton the most populous of the three LGA (21,940). Over the 10 years between 1996 and 2006: • The population of the sub-Region grew at an average annual rate of 0.2

per cent, substantially lower than the rate for the whole of the Hunter Region (0.8 per cent) and the State (0.9 per cent).

• The fastest growing LGA was Singleton, the population of which

increased at an average annual rate of 1.1 per cent. • The population declined in both Muswellbrook and the Upper Hunter

Shire, at an average annual rate of 0.1 per cent and 0.8 per cent respectively.

The chart over compares growth rates in each of the Upper Hunter LGAs, the sub-Region in total, the Hunter and State. Details of the age distribution in the Upper Hunter are provided in the table following.

1.2%

0.04% 0.01%

-0.7% -0.7%

-0.2%

3.4%3.6%

1.3%

2.0%1.7%

2.1%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

Maitland Port Stephens Newcastle Lake Macquarie Cessnock Lower Huntertotal

Under 40 40+


Average annual rate of change of the 'younger' and 'older' population cohorts, Lower Hunter, 1996 - 2006

Upper Hunter



1996 2001 2006



Muswellbrook Singleton

0-14 years 4,038 3,664 3,695 -0.9% 5,311 5,119 5,366 0.1%

15-24 years 2,208 1,926 2,059 -0.7% 2,690 2,788 2,911 0.8%

25-39 years 3,716 3,339 3,171 -1.6% 4,793 4,504 4,575 -0.5%

40-54 years 3,030 3,105 3,209 0.6% 4,027 4,598 4,826 1.8%

55-64 years 1,108 1,273 1,560 3.5% 1,327 1,625 2,187 5.1%

65+ years 1,264 1,396 1,542 2.0% 1,609 1,875 2,075 2.6%

Total 15,364 14,703 15,236 -0.1% 19,757 20,509 21,940 1.1%

Upper Hunter Shire Upper Hunter total

0-14 years 3,339 2,625 2,635 -2.3% 12,688 11,408 11,696 -0.8%

15-24 years 1,658 1,468 1,639 -0.1% 6,556 6,182 6,609 0.1%

25-39 years 3,005 2,266 2,279 -2.7% 11,514 10,109 10,025 -1.4%

40-54 years 2,940 2,635 2,815 -0.4% 9,997 10,338 10,850 0.8%

55-64 years 1,312 1,261 1,598 2.0% 3,747 4,159 5,345 3.6%

65+ years 1,817 1,589 2,010 1.0% 4,690 4,860 5,627 1.8%

Total 14,071 11,844 12,976 -0.8% 49,192 47,056 50,152 0.2%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 1996 and 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0

Age distribution and change, Upper Hunter, 1996 - 2006

Average annual rate of population change, Upper Hunter, 1996 - 2006

1.1%

-0.1%

-0.8%

0.2%

0.8% 0.9%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Singleton Muswellbrook Upper HunterShire

Upper Huntertotal

Hunter NSW




The age distribution shown in the table above illustrates the ageing of the Upper Hunter population. Between 1996 and 2006: • In the sub-Region overall, the population aged 40 and over increased (at


• The size of the younger population (below 40) remained relatively stable

in Singleton, while it declined in both Muswellbrook and the Upper Hunter Shire at an average annual rate of 1.1 per cent and 2.0 per cent respectively.

• Among the under 40s, the age group with the greatest rate of decline

was the 25 to 39 year olds, the age range in which most women have children.

The chart below compares rates of growth of the under 40 and 40 and over age cohorts in each of the Upper Hunter LGAs.

The population of the Other Hunter area totalled 45,626 persons in 2006, with Great Lakes the most populous LGA (32,764). Over the 10 years between 1996 and 2006: • The population of the sub-Region area grew at an average annual rate of

1.2 per cent, higher than the rate for the whole of the Hunter Region (0.8 per cent) and the State (0.9 per cent).

• Great Lakes was the fastest growing LGA, increasing at an average

annual rate of 1.6 per cent. The population in Dungog rose at a substantially lower rate of 0.4 per cent per annum on average.

Average annual rate of change of the 'younger' and 'older' population cohorts, Upper Hunter, 1996 - 2006

Other Hunter

0.05%

-1.1%

-2.0%

-0.8%

2.7%

1.6%

0.6%

1.7%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Singleton Muswellbrook Upper Hunter Shire Upper Hunter total

Under 40 40+




• In Gloucester the population declined at an average annual rate of 0.2 per cent.

The chart below compares growth rates in each of the Other Hunter LGAs, the sub-Region in total, the Hunter and State. Details of the age distribution in the Other Hunter follow in the table.

1996 2001 2006



Dungog Gloucester

0-14 years 1,834 1,813 1,701 -0.8% 1,113 987 874 -2.4%

15-24 years 854 864 873 0.2% 508 438 422 -1.8%

25-39 years 1,643 1,455 1,266 -2.6% 901 753 625 -3.6%

40-54 years 1,554 1,843 1,884 1.9% 958 1,016 1,029 0.7%

55-64 years 803 952 1,081 3.0% 577 621 786 3.1%

65+ years 1,032 1,110 1,257 2.0% 829 936 1,064 2.5%

Total 7,720 8,037 8,062 0.4% 4,886 4,751 4,800 -0.2%

Great Lakes Other Hunter total

0-14 years 5,518 5,513 5,263 -0.5% 8,465 8,313 7,838 -0.8%

15-24 years 2,381 2,653 2,869 1.9% 3,743 3,955 4,164 1.1%

25-39 years 4,652 4,372 4,004 -1.5% 7,196 6,580 5,895 -2.0%

40-54 years 5,091 6,115 6,393 2.3% 7,603 8,974 9,306 2.0%

55-64 years 3,673 4,726 5,139 3.4% 5,053 6,299 7,006 3.3%

65+ years 6,771 7,822 9,096 3.0% 8,632 9,868 11,417 2.8%

Total 28,086 31,201 32,764 1.6% 40,692 43,989 45,626 1.2%


Average annual rate of population change, Other Hunter, 1996 - 2006

Age distribution and change, Other Hunter, 1996 - 2006

1.6%

0.4%

-0.2%

1.2%

0.8% 0.9%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

Great Lakes Dungog Gloucester Other Huntertotal

Hunter NSW




The age distribution shown in the table above illustrates the ageing of the Other Hunter population. Between 1996 and 2006: • In the sub-Region overall, the population aged 40 and over increased (at


• The size of the younger population (below 40) declined in all LGAs, with

the rate of decline lowest in Great Lakes (0.3 per cent per annum on average) and highest in Gloucester (2.7 per cent).

• Among the under 40s, the age group with the greatest rate of decline

was the 25 to 39 year olds, the age range in which most women have children.

The chart below compares the rates of growth of the under 40 and 40 and over age cohorts in each of the Other Hunter LGAs.

In 2006 the population of the Hunter Region was 589,240 persons, approximately 9 per cent of the State total of 6.5 million. The charts over present population growth rates for all Hunter Region LGAs over the decade from 1996 to 2006: • The fastest growing, at rates above the regional and State averages,

were: Maitland (at an average annual rate of 2.1 per cent), Port Stephens (1.7 per cent), Great Lakes (1.6 per cent) and Singleton (1.1 per cent). In all other LGAs the population increased at a relatively slow rate, or it declined. There were declines in Muswellbrook (at an average annual rate of 0.1 per cent), Gloucester (0.2 per cent) and the Upper Hunter Shire (0.8 per cent).

Average annual rate of change of the 'younger' and 'older' population cohorts, Other Hunter, 1996 - 2006

-0.3%

-1.2%

-2.7%

-0.8%

2.9%

2.2%2.0%

2.7%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Great Lakes Dungog Gloucester Other Hunter total

Under 40 40+


The Hunter Region



• Maitland is the only LGA in the Hunter in which the population aged under 40 increased, though the rate of increase of this group was substantially lower than for the over 40s (1.2 per cent per annum on average compared with 3.4 per cent respectively).

• The younger population was relatively stable in Singleton, Port Stephens

and Newcastle, and it declined in all other Hunter LGAs. Rates of decline in the under 40 age cohort were greatest in Muswellbrook (1.1 per cent per annum on average), Dungog (1.2 per cent), Upper Hunter Shire (2.0 per cent) and Gloucester (2.7 per cent).

2.1%

1.7% 1.6%

1.1%

0.6% 0.6%0.4% 0.3%

-0.1% -0.2%

-0.8%

1.2%0.9%

0.2%

0.8% 0.9%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Maitlan

d

PortStep

hens

Great L

akes

Singlet

on

Newca

stle

Lake

Mac

quari

e

Dungo

g

Cessn

ock

Muswell

brook

Glouce

ster

Upper

Hunter

Shire

Other H

unter

total

Lower

Hunter

total

Upper

Hunter

total

Hunter

NSW


Average annual rate of population change, Hunter Region, 1996 - 2006

Average annual rate of change of the 'younger' and 'older' population cohorts, Hunter Region, 1996 - 2006

1.2%

-0.3%-0.7% -0.7%

-1.1% -1.2%

-2.0%-2.7%

3.4%2.7%

3.6%

1.3%

2.9%

2.0%1.7% 1.6%

2.2%

0.6%

2.0%

0.01%0.04%0.05%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Maitlan

d

Singlet

on

PortStep

hens

Newca

stle

Great L

akes

Lake

Macqu

arie

Cessn

ock

Muswell

brook

Dungo

g

Upper

Hunter

Shire

Glouce

ster

Under 40 40+




The following table presents population totals and annual average rates of growth for specified age groups in the Region and the State between 1996 and 2006: • Rates of growth were similar in the Region and State although, on

balance, there was a small decline in the regional population aged under 40 (by an average of 0.3 per cent per annum), while there was a very slight increase in this cohort in the State (by an average of 0.01 per cent per annum).

• In the both the Region and the State there was a decline in the

population of 25 to 39 year olds, the age range in which most women have children. The decline in the Hunter was greater than in the State.

• The rate of increase in the older population (aged 40 and above) was

slightly higher in the Hunter (2.1 per cent per annum on average) than in the State (2.0 per cent).

The old-age dependency ratio is the ratio of the number of people aged 65 and over to the number of working age people between 15 and 64. This ratio has been increasing over the past decade in both the Region and the State, meaning that there are proportionally fewer working age people to support the older, generally retired population. Moreover, the ratio is higher in the Hunter than in the State: 25 per cent compared with 21 per cent respectively in 2006. Major challenges for the future, now well recognised, are the need to provide the infrastructure and services required for the ageing population, and incentives to keep young people in regional areas. See also the population projections at the end of this chapter.

Hunter NSW

1996 2001 2006



0-14 years 118,267 117,858 116,560 -0.1% 1,286,689 1,314,456 1,298,916 0.1%

15-24 years 74,617 73,373 77,103 0.3% 849,575 845,964 871,716 0.3%

25-39 years 117,010 111,968 108,281 -0.8% 1,397,074 1,400,152 1,365,729 -0.2%

40-54 years 106,246 118,525 123,402 1.5% 1,193,472 1,336,523 1,387,494 1.5%

55-64 years 48,181 57,379 69,948 3.8% 515,152 597,588 719,547 3.4%

65+ years 78,082 85,416 93,946 1.9% 764,244 831,896 905,777 1.7%

Total 542,403 564,519 589,240 0.8% 6,006,206 6,326,579 6,549,179 0.9%


Population age distribution and change, Hunter and NSW, 1996 - 2006



In the years between the Census the Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes limited, estimated resident population (ERP) data, with the estimates in respect of June each year. The table below shows ERP data for 2006 and 2007. Note that the Census and ERP data are not strictly comparable. In 2007, ERP data indicates that: • The population of the Hunter Region increased by 1.1 per cent from the

previous year, a faster rise than the long-term average of 0.8 per cent per annum indicated by the Census (between 1996 and 2006).

• The faster short-term population rise was the result of higher growth in

the Lower Hunter (1.2 per cent between 2006 and 2007 compared with the decade average of 0.9 per cent per annum) and Upper Hunter (0.6 per cent compared with the decade average of 0.2 per cent), and lower growth in the Other Hunter (0.7 per cent compared with the decade average of 1.2 per cent)

• In 2007 population density was highest, by far, in Newcastle, at 822

persons per sq. km. The next most densely populated LGAs were Lake Macquarie (300) and Maitland (170).

• LGAs in the Upper Hunter and Other Hunter were much less densely

populated than those in the Lower Hunter. The least dense were the Upper Hunter Shire and Gloucester (each with 1.7 persons per sq. km).

Estimated resident population growth and density, Hunter and NSW, 2007

2006 No.

2007 No.

Change 2006–2007

%

Prop'n of total 2007

%Area

Sq. km

Population density

Persons/ sq. km

Lower Hunter Cessnock 48,265 48,985 1.5% 7.8% 1,966 24.9 Lake Macquarie 191,955 193,092 0.6% 30.9% 644 299.8 Maitland 64,793 66,530 2.7% 10.7% 392 169.7 Newcastle 149,075 150,357 0.9% 24.1% 183 821.6 Port Stephens 63,408 64,698 2.0% 10.4% 858 75.4 Lower Hunter total 517,496 523,662 1.2% 83.9% 4,043 129.5 Upper Hunter Muswellbrook 15,944 16,039 0.6% 2.6% 3,406 4.7 Singleton 23,005 23,258 1.1% 3.7% 4,896 4.8 Upper Hunter Shire 13,609 13,594 -0.1% 2.2% 8,071 1.7 Upper Hunter total 52,558 52,891 0.6% 8.5% 16,373 3.2 Other HunterDungog 8,432 8,413 -0.2% 1.3% 2,251 3.7 Gloucester 4,985 4,971 -0.3% 0.8% 2,952 1.7 Great Lakes 33,982 34,359 1.1% 5.5% 3,376 10.2 Other Hunter total 47,399 47,743 0.7% 7.6% 8,579 5.6 Hunter total 617,453 624,296 1.1% 100.0% 28,995 21.5 NSW 6,817,182 6,889,072 1.1% 801,349 8.6

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Regional Population Growth, Australia, Cat. No. 3218.0

Estimated resident population 2007



The table below shows the proportion of the total of all males, females and persons in the Hunter and NSW in each of the specified age groups. The final column for both the Region and the State indicates the change in the total population for each age group between 1996 and 2006. In 2006: • Of the total of 589,240 persons in the Hunter, approximately 49 per cent

were male (289,812) and 51 per cent were female (299,248). Between 1996 and 2006 the male population increased by 8 per cent, while the female population rose by 9.3 per cent; the total population increased by 8.6 per cent. In the State the male population rose by 8.8 per cent, while the female population increased at the same rate as in the Hunter. The larger increase for males resulted in a slightly higher rate of overall population growth in the State (9 per cent) than in the Region.

• In both the Region and the State the proportion of males exceeded the

proportion of females in all age categories below 30 years. Proportions did not vary greatly between the genders for the 30-69 age ranges, but thereafter there was a higher proportion of females than males in all groups.

• Very high rates of growth are evident in both the State and the Region

for in the 'pre-retirement' age groups (between 45 and 64 years) and the oldest age cohorts (75 years and over).

Hunter NSW Males Females Persons Males Females Persons

Proportion of total population Total

change '96–06

Proportion of total population Total

change '96–06

0-4 years 6.5% 5.9% 6.2% -5.8% 6.7% 6.1% 6.4% -1.8%

5-9 years 6.9% 6.3% 6.6% -2.9% 6.9% 6.3% 6.6% 0.3%

10-14 years 7.3% 6.7% 7.0% 4.2% 7.1% 6.5% 6.8% 4.3%

15-19 years 7.1% 6.6% 6.8% 8.9% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 6.5%

20-24 years 6.5% 6.0% 6.2% -2.2% 6.8% 6.4% 6.6% -1.1%

25-29 years 5.6% 5.4% 5.5% -11.0% 6.5% 6.4% 6.5% -5.5%

30-34 years 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% -6.0% 7.1% 7.2% 7.1% -0.9%

35-39 years 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% -5.8% 7.2% 7.3% 7.2% -0.5%

40-44 years 7.0% 7.0% 7.0% 5.1% 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 9.8%

45-49 years 7.2% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3%

50-54 years 6.8% 6.6% 6.7% 31.4% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 28.4%

55-59 years 6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 51.9% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 45.8%

60-64 years 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 38.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 32.7%

65-69 years 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 5.3% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 6.8%

70-74 years 3.6% 3.9% 3.7% 0.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 0.5%

75-79 years 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 31.0% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9% 26.3%

80-84 years 2.1% 2.9% 2.5% 52.5% 1.8% 2.5% 2.1% 43.5%

85+ years 1.2% 2.6% 1.9% 71.6% 1.1% 2.3% 1.7% 61.6% Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 8.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 9.0%


Gender distribution

Population gender distribution and change, Hunter and NSW, 2006



• While it is not shown in the table above, it is noteworthy that for these older groups the male population in both the Region and State increased at a significantly greater rate than the female population. This suggests a substantial improvement in men’s health over the past decade.

The tables below show the ethnic distribution of the Hunter and State population, first in terms of residents’ country of birth and next in terms of the language spoken at home. Both tables indicate a relatively low level of ethnic diversity in the Hunter, as well as a changing ethnic profile in the State and the Region. In 2006: • Approximately 85 per cent of the regional population was born in

Australia, compared with 69 per cent of the State population. • In both the Region and the State the largest proportion of non-Australian

born residents was from the United Kingdom, and a relatively high proportion was from New Zealand.

• In the Hunter the bulk of the remaining non-Australian born residents

were from Europe, predominately Germany, Italy and The Netherlands. The majority of former European nationals arrived in Australia prior to 1991.

• In the State a relatively high proportion of immigrants were from East

Asian countries (particularly China, Viet Nam, The Philippines, Hong Kong and South Korea), Europe (Italy, Greece and counties in the former Yugoslavia), as well as India and Lebanon.

Over the decade between 1996 and 2006 there were large increases in the proportion of non-Australian born residents in the State from Iraq, India, China, Thailand, South Africa, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and South Korea. These increases have generally been reflected at the regional level, but from a very small base number in 1996. In 2006: • Approximately 92 per cent of Hunter residents spoke only English at

home compared with 74 per cent in the State. • The most frequently spoken non-English languages in the Hunter were

Chinese (mainly Cantonese) and Italian, followed by Macedonian and Greek, and then German and Polish. The proportion of Chinese, Italian and Greek speakers in the State was significantly higher than in the Region.

• A high proportion of languages other than those shown in the table were

spoken at home in the State, though not in the Region. These include Hindi, Korean and Turkish.

Ethnicity Country of birth

Language spoken at home



Hunter NSW No. % total % total

2006 Change '96–'06 2006

Change '96–'06

Australia 500,577 84.95% 5.5% 69.03% 2.7%

United Kingdom (1) 19,251 3.27% -3.9% 4.06% -7.8%

New Zealand 6,018 1.02% 16.8% 1.63% 20.9%

Germany 2,672 0.45% -6.7% 0.47% -4.4%

Italy 1,588 0.27% -12.7% 0.84% -16.6%

Netherlands 1,581 0.27% -2.9% 0.29% -12.3%

Philippines 1,456 0.25% 16.2% 0.88% 22.1%

South Africa 1,186 0.20% 102.0% 0.50% 57.2%

United States of America 1,142 0.19% 46.8% 0.33% 24.0%

China (excl. SARs and Taiwan Province) (2) 1,068 0.18% 33.8% 1.74% 74.0%

Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 1,067 0.18% -5.8% 0.27% -4.8%

Poland 976 0.17% -29.0% 0.23% -19.8%

Malaysia 824 0.14% -7.1% 0.36% 14.4%

India 822 0.14% 45.7% 0.87% 99.2%

Ireland 779 0.13% 22.1% 0.26% -1.9%

Greece 777 0.13% -11.0% 0.54% -14.8%

Canada 649 0.11% 38.7% 0.16% 19.6%South Eastern Europe, nfd (3) 551 0.09% 0.18%

Croatia 509 0.09% 3.5% 0.28% 7.2%

Korea, Republic of (South) 413 0.07% 18.3% 0.51% 51.6%

Hong Kong (SAR of China) (2) 393 0.07% -15.1% 0.59% -1.5%

Papua New Guinea 383 0.06% 16.8% 0.08% -10.3%

Malta 355 0.06% 18.7% 0.26% -16.0%

Thailand 344 0.06% 81.1% 0.19% 62.6%

Fiji 343 0.06% 18.3% 0.44% 26.6%

Viet Nam 310 0.05% -11.4% 0.97% 4.3%

Sri Lanka 307 0.05% 17.2% 0.29% 33.7%

Indonesia (4) 306 0.05% 19.1% 0.33% 24.5%

Singapore 237 0.04% -16.8% 0.15% 32.6%

Egypt 218 0.04% 9.5% 0.26% -2.9%

Japan 210 0.04% 19.3% 0.17% 9.8%

Bosnia and Herzegovina 205 0.03% 22.8% 0.11% 58.7%

Lebanon 118 0.02% -21.3% 0.85% 6.6%

Turkey 104 0.02% 44.4% 0.19% 6.0%

Iraq 63 0.01% 186.4% 0.31% 117.5% Born elsewhere (5) 6,729 1.14% 21.9% 4.16% 20.1%Country of birth not stated 34,709 5.89% 113.4% 7.21% 121.4%

Total 589,240 100.00% 8.6% 100.00% 9.0% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 1996 and 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0…See notes over

Birthplace of residents of the Hunter and NSW, 2006



(1) Comprises 'United Kingdom, nfd', 'Channel Islands', 'England', 'Isle of Man', 'Northern Ireland', 'Scotland' and 'Wales'.

(2) Special Administrative Regions (SARs) comprise 'Hong Kong (SAR of China)' and 'Macau (SAR of China)'. (3) In 1996 was known as 'Yugoslavia, Former not further defined'. In 2001 was known as 'Yugoslavia, federal

Republic of'. In 2006, includes persons who stated their birthplace as Yugoslavia. (4) In 1996 only, Indonesia included East Timor. (5) Includes countries not identified individually, 'Australian External Territories', 'Inadequately described', 'At sea'

and 'Not elsewhere classified'. Between 1996 and 2006: • The increase in the number of people who spoke only English at home

was substantially higher in the Region (6.7 per cent) than in the State (2.4 per cent).

• In both the Region and State the proportion of residents who spoke

Croatian, German, Greek, Italian, Macedonian and Polish declined while, in respect of other European languages, the proportion speaking French, Serbian and Spanish rose. The proportion speaking Arabic and Asian languages (especially Chinese, Tagalog/Filipino and Vietnamese) increased, at a faster rate in the State than in the Hunter.

Hunter NSW

No. % total Change '96–'06 No. % total

Change '96–'06

Speaks English only 542,185 92.0% 6.7% 4,846,670 74.0% 2.4%

Speaks other language

Arabic (includes Lebanese) 626 0.1% 63.0% 164,986 2.5% 31.3% Australian Indigenous

Languages 77 0.0% 32.8% 1,945 0.0% 68.0%

Chinese languages 2,218 0.4% 7.3% 243,574 3.7% 44.4%

Croatian 575 0.1% -8.6% 23,605 0.4% -10.0%

Dutch 585 0.1% 0.5% 8,716 0.1% -11.4%

French 501 0.1% 16.5% 15,183 0.2% 4.3%

German 1,355 0.2% -34.2% 22,108 0.3% -24.7%

Greek 1,497 0.3% -3.7% 86,158 1.3% -7.3%

Italian 2,067 0.4% -5.7% 87,296 1.3% -15.1%

Macedonian 1,867 0.3% -11.1% 28,940 0.4% -3.3%

Polish 1,012 0.2% -28.2% 15,497 0.2% -15.2%

Samoan 405 0.1% -1.0% 12,908 0.2% 48.0%

Serbian 414 0.1% 20.3% 21,612 0.3% 31.5%

Spanish 694 0.1% 9.6% 49,557 0.8% 2.0%

Tagalog (includes Filipino) 810 0.1% 20.5% 47,477 0.7% 23.6%

Vietnamese 397 0.1% 5.6% 74,588 1.1% 32.3%

Other 4,134 0.7% 16.0% 158,966 2.4% 32.1%

Total 21,747 3.7% 1.5% 1,314,557 20.1% 20.4%

Language not stated 25,307 4.3% 98.3% 387,952 5.9% 111.8%

Total 589,239 100.0% 8.6% 6,549,179 100.0% 9.0%


Language spoken at home by residents of the Hunter and NSW, 2006

Language spoken at home (continued)



The table over presents the indigenous/non-indigenous composition of each local government area (LGA) in the Hunter, and the Region and State in total, in 1996 and 2006. In 2006: • In both the Region and the State indigenous people comprised a small

proportion of the total population (the final column in the table). • The proportion of indigenous people in the Hunter was slightly higher

than in the State (2.6 per cent compared with 2.1 per cent respectively). • Within the Hunter the highest concentration of indigenous people was in

the Upper Hunter sub-Region (3.4 per cent of the sub-regional total). Muswellbrook had the highest concentration among all LGAs (4.8 per cent of the LGA total).

• In the Other Hunter sub-Region indigenous people comprised 3.0 per

cent of the population, and 3.6 per cent of the Gloucester LGA total. In this area there are significant Aboriginal communities in the towns of Forster and Karuah.

• In the more densely populated Lower Hunter sub-Region the indigenous

population comprised 2.5 per cent of the total, though it was more concentrated in Cessnock (3.5 per cent), the least urbanised LGA in the sub-Region.

• In numerical terms the indigenous population was highest in the Lake

Macquarie (4,297) and Newcastle (3,021) LGAs. Over the decade from 1996 to 2006: • There was a very large rise in the Hunter’s indigenous population,

possibly partially related to more people identifying their indigenous status. The number of indigenous residents increased from 9,295 in 1996 to 15,336, a rise of 65 per cent. The non-indigenous population increased by 5.4 per cent, and the total population (including those who did not indicate their indigenous status) rose by 8.6 per cent.

• The indigenous increases exceeded 85 per cent in the Muswellbrook,

Maitland and Cessnock LGAs, and 70 per cent in Port Stephens. • In NSW there was a 36 per cent increase in the number of indigenous

people, a 5.1 per cent increase in the non-indigenous population and a 9.0 per cent increase overall.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics expects the Aboriginal population to continue to increase at a substantially faster rate than the non-indigenous population (see Australian Bureau of Statistics, Experimental Estimates and Projections, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians, 2001–2009 Cat. No. 3238.0.55.002).

Indigenous status Growth 1996 – 2006



Indigenous Non-indigenous Not stated Total

Year No. Change

'96–'06 No. Change '96–'06 No. Change

'96–'06 No. Change '96–'06

Indig-enous prop-

ortion of Hunter

Lower Hunter 1996 865 42,701 1,170 44,736 1.9%

Cessnock 2006 1,602 85.2% 42,686 0.0% 1,918 63.9% 46,206 3.3% 3.5%

1996 2,763 166,400 3,562 172,725 1.6%LakeMacquarie 2006 4,297 55.5% 171,787 3.2% 7,054 98.0% 183,138 6.0% 2.3%

1996 866 48,569 890 50,325 1.7%Maitland 2006 1,622 87.3% 57,728 18.9% 2,529 184.2% 61,879 23.0% 2.6%

1996 1,861 128,223 3,505 133,589 1.4%Newcastle 2006 3,021 62.3% 131,496 2.6% 7,237 106.5% 141,754 6.1% 2.1%

1996 1,001 48,815 1,330 51,146 2.0%Port Stephens 2006 1,742 74.0% 55,938 14.6% 2,804 110.8% 60,484 18.3% 2.9%

1996 7,356 434,708 10,457 452,521 1.6%Lower Hunter total 2006 12,284 67.0% 459,635 5.7% 21,542 106.0% 493,461 9.0% 2.5%Upper Hunter

1996 383 14,363 615 15,361 2.5%Muswellbrook 2006 725 89.3% 13,727 -4.4% 784 27.5% 15,236 -0.8% 4.8%

1996 380 18,686 691 19,757 1.9%Singleton 2006 581 52.9% 20,326 8.8% 1,030 49.1% 21,937 11.0% 2.6%

1996 261 13,441 369 14,071 1.9%Upper Hunter Shire 2006 401 53.6% 12,074 -10.2% 500 35.5% 12,975 -7.8% 3.1%

1996 1,024 46,490 1,675 49,189 2.1%Upper Hunter total 2006 1,707 66.7% 46,127 -0.8% 2,314 38.1% 50,148 1.9% 3.4%Other HunterDungog 1996 138 7,396 191 7,725 1.8%

2006 173 25.4% 7,453 0.8% 436 128.3% 8,062 4.4% 2.1%

Gloucester 1996 101 4,637 149 4,887 2.1%

2006 171 69.3% 4,452 -4.0% 175 17.4% 4,798 -1.8% 3.6%

1996 678 26,552 856 28,086 2.4%Great Lakes 2006 1,003 47.9% 30,339 14.3% 1,423 66.2% 32,765 16.7% 3.1%

1996 917 38,585 1,196 40,698 2.3%Other Hunter total 2006 1,347 46.9% 42,244 9.5% 2,034 70.1% 45,625 12.1% 3.0%

1996 9,295 519,783 13,325 542,403 1.7%Hunter 2006 15,336 65.0% 548,004 5.4% 25,900 94.4% 589,240 8.6% 2.6%

1996 101,636 5,726,496 178,074 6,006,206 1.7%NSW 2006 138,506 36.3% 6,019,399 5.1% 391,273 119.7% 6,549,178 9.0% 2.1%


Indigenous status in the Hunter and NSW, 1996 and 2006



The table below shows the age distribution of the indigenous and non-indigenous population in the Hunter Region in 2006. It is evident that: • The ageing of the overall population in the Region is not apparent in the

indigenous population. In 2006 more than three-quarters of the indigenous population was aged under 40, compared with 51 per cent of the non-indigenous and total population.

• The relative youth of indigenous residents is most evident for the 0-14

years cohort, which comprised 38 per cent of the total compared with 20 per cent of the total for non-indigenous residents, as well as the 15-24 years cohort (19 per cent compared with 13 per cent respectively).

• At the older end of the range, residents aged 55 and over comprised 9

per cent of the indigenous population, substantially lower than the 28 per cent for non-indigenous residents.

Indigenous Non-indigenous Not stated Total

No. % No. % No. % No. %

0-14 years 5,865 38.2% 105,311 19.2% 5,384 20.8% 116,560 19.8%

15-24 years 2,972 19.4% 70,630 12.9% 3,497 13.5% 77,099 13.1%

25-39 years 2,822 18.4% 101,246 18.5% 4,214 16.3% 108,282 18.4%

40-54 years 2,365 15.4% 116,258 21.2% 4,779 18.5% 123,402 20.9%

55-64 years 766 5.0% 66,370 12.1% 2,812 10.9% 69,948 11.9%

64+ years 546 3.6% 88,189 16.1% 5,214 20.1% 93,949 15.9%

Total 15,336 100.0% 548,004 100.0% 25,900 100.0% 589,240 100.0%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0 In November 2006, the NSW Department of Aboriginal Affairs published ten Regional Reports about Aboriginal people and the government services for each of the Regional Coordination Management Group regions of NSW. The reports form part of the regional implementation of the Two Ways Together program, and their purpose is to provide a snapshot of demographic and service information about Aboriginal communities in each region. This information will assist in service delivery, planning and monitoring under Two Ways Together, and it will be used to inform the development of regional action plans. The Hunter Regional Report can be found at www.daa.nsw.gov.au/policies/RegReport.html. Following are some brief excerpts from this report: • The Hunter Region is the traditional country of six Aboriginal peoples:

Awabakal, Birpai, Gaddhang, Gwaegal, Wonnarua, and Worimi. The Region includes six main language groups: Awabakal, Birpai, Dainggati, Darkinjung, Gwaegal and Kamilaroi.

• All local government councils in NSW are required to have social plans

that make specific mention of local Aboriginal communities and issues of concern to them. Some councils also have management plans that cite issues of significance for Aboriginal people under their jurisdiction, such as places of cultural heritage significance.

Indigenous status Age distribution

Age distribution of the indigenous and non-indigenous population, Hunter, 2006

Aboriginal cultural groups and local planning



• One of the most comprehensive local planning documents dealing with Aboriginal issues in the Region is Muswellbrook Shire Council’s Social Plan 2005–2010 (2004). Within each of the target groups identified in the plan there is a section on the specific needs and service delivery gaps for Aboriginal people, and an action plan identifying objectives, strategies, outcomes, timeframes, responsible officers, possible partners and additional resources.

• Cessnock Shire Council’s Social and Community Plan 2004–2009 has

identified Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people as one of its target groups for service delivery. The Council has constituted a Local Area Planning Team (LAPT) of 24 members, which includes two identified Aboriginal positions, and has compiled a comprehensive list of issues of concern to Aboriginal people in the area, including transport, access to services, domestic violence, health, education, housing, etc. The LAPT has also compiled a range of actions and strategies to work with other levels of government to help resolve these issues, however, the ongoing status of this group is not clear.

• In its Community Plan 2003–2008 (2004), Gloucester Shire Council has

recommended that it helps facilitate an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Strategic Plan aimed at building on existing training and employment programs in the LGA, and increasing the awareness and uptake of members of this group.

Overall, the structure of household relationships in the Hunter closely mirrors the State and the nation. As the table over shows, marriage was still the most common household relationship in the Region in 2006, with 39.9 per cent of Hunter residents in a registered marriage. However, its popularity has declined a little in the Region since the previous Census year, with the proportion of married residents falling from 40.3 per cent in 2001. In the State and nation the proportion of married residents increased marginally over the period. In contrast, the proportion of residents in the Hunter in alternative household relationships has increased. Between 2001 and 2006 the proportion of partners in de facto marriages rose from 5.4 per cent to 6.7 per cent, the proportion of lone parents increased from 4.7 per cent to 5 per cent, and the proportion of people living alone rose from 9.6 per cent to 10.1 per cent. There were similar rises over the period in the relative sizes of these groups in the State and nation, however in 2006 the groups were all proportionally larger in the Hunter. Conversely, the proportions of dependent students (15-24 years) living at home, other related individuals living under the same roof, and group households in the Region were lower than in the State or nation.

Household and family structure

Household relationships



Household relationships in the Hunter (2001 and 2006), and NSW and Australia (2006)

Hunter

No. (a) % % NSW

%Australia

%

2006 2001 2006 Husband or wife in registered marriage 218,915 39.9% 40.3% 39.7% 39.2% Partner inde facto marriage (b) 36,783 6.7% 5.4% 6.1% 6.8%

Lone parent 27,493 5.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%

Child under 15 110,225 20.1% 21.0% 20.2% 20.2% Dependent student (aged 15-24 years) 24,137 4.4% 4.4% 5.0% 5.0%

Non-dependent child 35,474 6.5% 6.1% 6.9% 6.3%

Other related individual 9,480 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.1% Unrelated individual living in family household 3,862 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9%

Group household member 14,484 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2%

Lone person 55,656 10.1% 9.6% 9.5% 9.7% Visitor (c) (from within Australia) 12,310 2.2% 3.3% 2.0% 2.1%

Total 548,819 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2001 and 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0

(a) No. persons in occupied private dwellings. Excludes persons in 'visitors only' and 'other not classifiable' households.

(b) Includes same sex couples.

(c) Persons who were not at home on census night and stated their relationship in another household as 'visitor'.

In the decade between 1996 and 2006 the number of lone parent households in the Hunter rose by approximately 24 per cent, from 22,155 to 27,493. In 2006 the total number of lone parent households headed by women (22,743) was almost five times greater than the number headed by males (4,750). This difference peaks in the 35 to 44 years age bracket, with 6,824 female-headed, lone parent households compared with 1,289 lone parent households headed by a male. This ratio reflects the fact that children of parents who have separated or divorced tend to live with their mother. See the chapter on Population and Demography. Between 1996 and 2006 the number of lone person households in the Hunter rose by more than 21 per cent, from 45,813 to 55,656. In 2006 a greater number of lone person households in the Hunter were also headed by females (30,311) than males (25,345). Unlike lone parent households that are dominated by females throughout the life cycle, lone person households are dominated by males in the 25 to 44 years age group. It is not until the older age groups (55 years and over) that dominance shifts to females when, due to ageing and mortality factors, women begin to form the majority of persons in single occupant households.



In 2006 there were 160,439 families living in the Hunter, an increase of 4.7 per cent from 153,296 in 2001. Of these families, the two largest groups were couples without children (39.2 per cent) and couples with dependent children (33.9 per cent).

Family structure in the Hunter (2001 and 2006), and NSW and Australia (2006)

Hunter

No. (a) % % NSW

%Australia

%

2006 2001 2006

Couple without children 62,834 39.2% 37.7% 36.0% 37.2% Couple with dependent children (b) 54,419 33.9% 36.0% 37.3% 37.0% Couple with non-dependent children only 13,532 8.4% 8.3% 8.9% 8.3%

One parent family 27,493 17.1% 16.6% 16.1% 15.8%

Other family 2,161 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7%

Total 160,439 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2001 and 2006, Cat. No. 2068.0

(a) Families in occupied private dwellings. Includes same sex couples.

(b) Couple families with children under 15 and dependent students. While the proportion of couple families without children in the Hunter has been rising (from 35.9 per cent of all families in 1996), the proportion of couple families with dependent children has been declining (from 38.1 per cent in 1996). In 2006 the proportion of Hunter families without children was higher than in the State and nation, and the proportion with dependent children was lower. These differences are likely to be partly due to the older age profile of the regional population. There has also been an increase in the proportion of one parent families in the Hunter, from 15.1 per cent in 1996 to 17.1 per cent in 2006, with the current proportion higher in the Hunter than in the State and nation.

Types of families



Population change is determined by: • Natural increase and decrease – the difference between the number of

births and deaths • Migration – the movement of people into and out of an area. At the national level population change will primarily be due to natural increase and decrease, and broad projections of this component can be reasonably made using historical trends. With stable or declining fertility trends, any projections showing a large increase in the Australian population will be based on large increases in the number of migrants moving to Australia. This migration is under the direct control of the Federal Government. Projections are more difficult at the local government are (LGA) level since they can be significantly influenced by developments in the area and migration from one LGA to another. For example, small coastal communities may have little natural increase (the number of births and deaths may be approximately equal), but a large number of retirees may move into the area from larger metropolitan regions. Similarly, small rural communities could suffer significant population loss as a result of out-migration, particularly if a major industry in the area closes. While local governments may have some influence on the rate of in-migration based on the amount of land zoned for residential expansion, this will only be the case if there is a shortage of residential land. The interaction of natural population increase/decrease, local migration and the change in housing stock is reflected in changes in household size. For example, a number of new houses may be built in an area indicating the influx of new people. However, if an ageing population is resulting in smaller households, the overall impact could actually be a declining population in the area. The model developed by the Hunter Valley Research Foundation provides projections for the total population of each LGA in the Hunter Region, as well as the age distribution of these totals. The projections are based on the following data and assumptions: • Baseline population – the actual population 'usually resident' in each of

the Hunter LGAs on the night of the Census in 2006. • Birth rates for each age group – for women aged between 15 and 49.

Because birth rates are not available at the LGA level, the rate for the Hunter Statistical District has been used.

• Death rates for each age group – increase significantly after 75 years of

age. Because death rates are not available at the LGA level, the rate for NSW has been used.

• The number of deaths in an area before a house becomes vacant and,

therefore, available for new residents. In the Hunter Region the 2006 Census indicates that, on average, there were 2.5 people in each household. Therefore, two deaths have been assumed in this model.

Population projections

Determinants of population growth

The HVRF population projection model

Assumptions



• The proportion of occupied private dwellings in an area – this varies between LGAs, with holiday areas having a higher proportion of non-occupied houses, which is then reflected in household size.

• The number of new dwellings built in the LGA – this is a major indicator

of in-migration at the local level. The model uses the average number of new dwellings (houses and other residential) approved between 2001–2002 and 2005–2006. However, these figures were arbitrarily reduced in the model because in their unadjusted form they suggested an increase in housing stock that was not supported by the count of dwellings reported in the 2006 Census. The likely reason for the difference between building approval data and the number of dwellings reported in the 2006 Census was due to existing houses being knocked-down for a rebuild. A 'knock-down and rebuild' would count as a building approval but would not add to the housing stock as measured by the Census.

The model has also been adjusted for the redistribution of LGA boundaries in 2004. The 2001 population of the newly formed Upper Hunter Shire was calculated using the available Census collector districts to match the boundaries of the new LGA. Building approvals data for the new LGA was only published by the ABS from 2004-05 onward. Prior to this time, building approvals of the three original LGAs (of Scone, Merriwa and Murrurundi) were amalgamated to approximate those of the new Upper Hunter Shire. The projections presented below utilise the latest available data at February 2008. Annual adjustments are made to the projections as additional data relating to birth and death rates, as well as building approvals, becomes available each year. Output from the model shown in the table over indicates that the regional population is projected to rise from approximately 589,000 persons in 2006 to just under 709,000 by 2026, representing an average annual growth rate of 0.93 per cent over the two decades. This rate is higher than the average of 0.8 per cent per annum which prevailed over the decade between 1996 and 2006. Over the next 20 years, of the five LGAs which comprise the Lower Hunter (Cessnock, Lake Macquarie, Maitland, Newcastle, Maitland and Port Stephens), Maitland (2.04 per cent) and Port Stephens (1.68 per cent) are projected to have the highest average annual rates of growth. These rates are approximately equivalent to the actual population growth between 1996 and 2006. Of the remaining LGAs, Great Lakes (1.69 per cent), Singleton (1.19 per cent) and Muswellbrook (0.81 per cent) are projected to have the highest increases. LGAs with the lowest growth rates include Dungog (-0.28 per cent) and the Upper Hunter Shire (0.21 per cent). The projections represent a slight increase from historical rates for Singleton and Great Lakes, and a reversal of the population declines recorded between 1996 and 2006 in both Muswellbrook and the Upper Hunter Shire. For Dungog, however, the small increase in population between 1996 and 2006 is set to turn into a decline.

Medium growth projections



Medium growth population projections, Hunter local government areas, 2011 – 2026

Actual Projections

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Average annual growth rate 2006–2026

Lower Hunter

Cessnock 46,206 47,726 49,108 50,410 51,710 0.56%

Lake Macquarie 183,139 187,054 190,941 195,145 199,744 0.43%

Maitland 61,881 69,720 77,487 85,139 92,656 2.04%

Newcastle 141,752 147,143 152,380 157,428 162,332 0.68%

Port Stephens 60,484 66,360 72,212 78,212 84,369 1.68%

Lower Hunter total 493,462 518,003 542,128 566,332 590,812 0.90%

Upper Hunter

Muswellbrook 15,236 15,893 16,549 17,215 17,888 0.81%

Singleton 21,940 23,538 25,003 26,420 27,822 1.19%

Upper Hunter Shire 12,976 13,045 13,185 13,363 13,528 0.21%

Upper Hunter total 50,152 52,476 54,736 56,998 59,239 0.84%

Other Hunter

Dungog 8,062 7,964 7,831 7,713 7,621 -0.28%

Gloucester 4,800 4,876 4,966 5,086 5,205 0.41%

Great Lakes 32,764 36,016 39,277 42,558 45,809 1.69%

Other Hunter total 45,626 48,856 52,073 55,357 58,634 1.26%

Hunter total 589,240 619,335 648,937 678,688 708,685 0.93%

Source: Hunter Valley Research Foundation The model allows for two other projection scenarios based on the level of building approvals. High growth projections are based on an increase in approvals 10 per cent above the calculated average for the period. A low growth projection scenario is based upon dwelling approvals at a rate 10 per cent below the calculated period average. Under the low growth scenario the regional population will rise by an average of 0.82 per cent per annum to approximately 694,000 in 2026. Under the high growth scenario, the annual average growth rate will be 1.03 per cent, with the population increasing to 724,000 in 2026. The 2006 Census year was also the year in which the first of the 'baby boom’ generation turned 60 years of age. This generation, predicted to live longer than the preceding generation and reflected in increasing numbers in Census figures, is projected to represent an increasing proportion of the population over the next 20 years. For the Hunter Region, the figure over shows the older population (aged 60 and over) increasing as a proportion of the total Hunter population, from 21.4 per cent in 2006 to 27.9 per cent by 2026. Conversely, the proportion of people under 29 years of age is projected to fall from 38.4 per cent to 35.0 per cent by 2026.

Other projection scenarios

Age distribution



These changes have implications for policy. It will be necessary to ensure that limited resources and understanding of the needs of the older generation do not detract from their quality of life. For example, the need to reconsider the 'artificiality' of the retirement age has recently been argued, in a population that is fundamentally healthy and living longer. Lifting the pension age would allow people to be productive and remain in the workforce longer. The merits of this argument will need to be balanced against the desires of people who wish to retire. In respect of the younger age cohort, the proportional decline in this group represents a reduction in the population base from which the future workers of Australia must come. Declining fertility rates may lead to changes to government migration policy to maintain the workforce as the baby boomers continue to retire over the next two decades. Population projections can be particularly difficult at the local level because the main determinant of growth is not the birth or death rate, but rather the decline or increase in residential development allowing for internal migration within the Hunter Region and external migration into and out of the Region. Two recent developments at the LGA level scheduled to commence in 2008 have the capacity to influence the regional population growth over the next two decades and beyond. • Huntlee – the first major new town in the Hunter for over 80 years.

Situated between Branxton and North Rothbury in the north-east of the Cessnock LGA, the Huntlee development will see 7,200 residential dwellings built between 2008 and 2025, and will cater for a population of 20,000. In addition, 160 ha of employment lands are expected to accommodate over 50,000 sq. m of retail bulky goods. For further information on Huntlee see www.beyondtheplan.com.au/huntlee.

Regional developments

38.4% 37.4% 36.4% 35.6% 35.0%

40.3% 39.2% 38.5% 37.6% 37.0%

21.4% 23.4% 25.2% 26.8% 27.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 (actual) 2011 2016 2021 2026

Young (0 to 29) Middle (30 to 59) Older (60+)

Source: Hunter Valley Research Foundation

Age distribution for medium growth population projections, Hunter Region, 2006 - 2026



• North Cooranbong – situated near Morisset at the southern end of the Lake Macquarie LGA, the $650 million North Cooranbong housing project is a joint agreement between Avondale College and the Johnson Property group. The project is scheduled to commence in September 2008, with some 2,500 new homes expected to be built over the next 15 years to accommodate between 4,500 and 6,000 people. For further information see www.johnsonpropertygroup.com.au.

See also the Construction and Property chapter. The table on the following page presents SEIFA indexes compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Each index summarises a different aspect of the socio-economic conditions of the respective LGAs. All indexes have been constructed so that relatively advantaged areas (for example, those with many high income earners) have high index values. The indexes are 'ordinal measures', not 'interval measures'. That is, they can be used to order areas in terms of disadvantage, but any other arithmetic relationships between index values may not be meaningful. For example, an area with an index value of 1,200 does not have twice the wellbeing of an area with an index value of 600. Similarly, the socio-economic difference between two areas with index values of 800 and 900 is not necessarily the same as the difference between two areas with index values of 1,050 and 1,150. Details on compilation of the index numbers are available at: Information Paper: An Introduction to Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), 2006, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat. No. 2039.0 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Latestproducts/2039.0Main%20Features12006?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=2039.0&issue=2006&num=&view= Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) – Technical Paper, 2006, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cat. No. 2039.0.55.001 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/2039.0.55.0012006?OpenDocument

This index is derived from attributes such as low income, low educational attainment, high unemployment, jobs in relatively unskilled occupations and other variables that reflect disadvantage. Relatively disadvantaged areas have lower index numbers; a high score reflects lack of disadvantage (rather than high advantage). A higher score on this index indicates that an area has attributes such as a relatively high proportion of people with high incomes or a skilled workforce.

Socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA)

Socio-economic disadvantage Socio-economic advantage/ disadvantage



This index reflects the profile of the economic resources of families within the areas and includes variables that reflect the wealth and expenditure of families, such as income, rent and dwelling size. Education and occupation variables are excluded because they are not direct measures of economic resources. A higher score on this index indicates that the area has a higher proportion of families on high income, a lower proportion of low income families, and more households living in large houses (four or more bedrooms). This index is designed to reflect the educational and occupational structure of communities. The education variables included show either the level of qualification achieved or whether further education is being undertaken. The occupation variables classify the workforce into the major groups of the Australian Standard Classification of Occupations (ASCO) and the unemployed. No income variables are included. An area with a high score on this index would have a high concentration of people with higher education qualifications or undergoing further education, with a high percentage of people employed in more skilled occupations. In the table below, indexes for the Hunter Region and sub-Regions have been calculated by the HVRF as population-weighted averages of indexes for the component LGAs.

Socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA), Hunter Region local government areas, 2006

Index of relative socio-economic…

Population Advantage/

disadvantage Disadvantage Economic resources

Education & occupation

Lower Hunter

Cessnock 46,206 915 939 957 878

Lake Macquarie 183,139 984 996 993 954

Maitland 61,881 975 992 997 939

Newcastle 141,752 989 983 961 997

Port Stephens 60,484 970 986 991 936

Lower Hunter total 493,462 976 985 981 955

Hunter Balance

Dungog 8,062 968 1,001 1,014 969

Gloucester 4,800 928 963 973 935

Great Lakes 32,764 930 952 961 917

Upper Hunter Shire 12,976 946 978 992 932

Muswellbrook 15,236 951 973 987 905

Singleton 21,940 995 1,017 1,041 936

Hunter Balance total 95,778 953 978 993 927

Hunter Region 589,240 972 984 983 951 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing, 2006 and Hunter Valley Research Foundation

Economic resources Education and occupation



Major points of note are that in 2006: • The Lower Hunter tended to be slightly more 'advantaged' (in socio-

economic terms) than the Hunter Balance, particularly in respect of education and occupation.

• In the Lower Hunter advantage was highest in Newcastle and Lake

Macquarie, and lowest in Cessnock. The disparity between these LGAs was highest in respect of education and occupation.

• In the Hunter Balance advantage was highest in Singleton. Singleton

was the most advantaged of all LGAs in the Hunter in terms of economic resources. In general, Great Lakes tended to be the most disadvantaged LGA.


Appendix C –

Robden Property Services Report and Capabilities Statement


ROBDEN PROPERTY SERVICES ABN 12 837 089 625

10 Eleonora Close

Whitebridge NSW 2290 Ph: 02 4943 6563

Mob: 0417 694146

Email: [email protected]

22nd February 2010. Mr. B Brown REVIEW OF INDEPENDANT LIVING UNITS NEWCASTLE. Dear Brian, Scope of Works: Robden Property Services has been requested to survey the Independent Living facilities within the Newcastle area that are considered close to the proposed project at Shortland Waters. Within the survey it has been requested to concentrate on the new and or upcoming IL Projects based on unit sizes and where possible the cost of purchase (or buy in). Robden Property Services has twenty years of experience working in the pensioner housing and Independent Living sphere and has provided advice to a wide range of operators. Survey Findings: The survey concentrated on those villages within a 25 kilometre radius of the Shortland Waters Project. Within that area there are a large number of operators of villages however the vast majority are villages that are at least 10-15 years old or older. The majority of operators are of the “Not for Profit” type and most operate unit sales on a “Licence” agreement. From information able to be gathered from Web sites and other registered Independent Living organisations there appears to be 7 main competitors of the proposed project.

Greenleaf- Is a privately run organisation that has three villages within the required radius and has a further large complex on the drawing boards at Fullerton Cove. This project has seen some ground works completed and a


marketing campaign to sell off the plan has been running for some time. However it is understood that the principle of the company is not well and the project is somewhat doubtful at this time.

Greenleaf- Belmont North

• This village is within 10km of the Shortland Project, it is currently selling Stage 2 units with 44 units on the ground in Stage 1 & 2 and a planned total on site of 97 when all stages are completed. This village commenced about 5 years ago and has sold reasonably strongly with 2B/R units at $415,000 average and 3 B/R units at $435,000.

• The units are reasonably generous in size being on average about 90-100sqm per 2 BR unit with a single lock up garage. Some units also have a parking bay/car port.

• The site could be considered to have distant ocean views from some spots, the terrain is reasonably hilly and whilst construction is ongoing landscaping is minimal. It is located close to a moderate sized shopping centre which has a Chemist and Doctors surgery.

Greenleaf- Ashton Gardens East Maitland • This village is approximately 20km from Shortland, it was opened in 2003

and has 57 units on site of 2&3 BR configuration. • Sale prices are similar to the Belmont North site. The village is located

adjacent to the New England Highway and is close to a large shopping centre with all services. The site does not have any advantageous outlooks but does have a private hospital nearby.

Greenleaf at Terrace Gardens Raymond Terrace

• As with the above complexes this village has a similar configuration of units but being smaller in size at only 20 units on site.

• It is about 20km from Shortland, it was opened in 2005 and does not have any more units planned. On site facilities

Bayside Bonnells Bay

• This village was opened in 1997 and has 237 units on site, once again it has a spread of 2&3 BR units with the 2br units having a sale price of $300,000.

• It is close to Lake Macquarie and has all onsite facilities such as 24 hr. Call assistance landscaped gardens a village bus etc.

• It is about 15km from Shortland on the western side of Lake Macquarie, the largest shopping centres are located at Toronto 5km and Glendale 10km.

• The operator is Lend Lease Prime Life who have a large portfolio of villages scattered up the eastern sea board

Maroba- Waratah

• This is a Not for Profit operator and is the only campus from the above list that has both a Low Care and High Care facility on site with Independent Living Units.


• The “IL” village was opened some ten years ago with a second stage within the last five years. It has a majority of 2br units on site and a few 1&3 BR units.

• There are 40 units on site with the 2BR units selling at $325,000. • Waratah is an inner suburb of Newcastle, the village has nice grounds and

provides 24hr call, a village bus, subsidised meals and views across Newcastle to the coast.

• There is a planned addition to the village in the form of a 5 story Serviced Apartment block which will command extensive city and coastal views. These apartments will be of 2 & 3 BR configuration up to 110sqm, the operator is hoping to achieve a yield in the vicinity of another 40 units dependent upon Council approvals.

Other Complexes

• There are several other perceived competitors within the area, the largest being Bolton Point RSL Care with around 60 units on site.

• These units have extensive views of Lake Macquarie and are approximately 15km from Shortland. The village has been in existence for some time and underwent a refurbishment of units about 6 years ago.

• Unit sales for 2BR units is believed to be in the mid $300,000 mark, the operator was not in a position to reveal current prices due to the Licence agreement arrangement which sees prices matched to clients wealth.

C A Brown Booragul

• This is also a “Not for Profit” complex run by the Anglicans, it has a High & Low Care facility attached.

• Many units on site are over twenty years old with a large refurbishment program undertaken about 8 years ago.

• The village is close to the main northern rail line and is subject to train noise constantly, it does not have any significant views.

• Prices range from the mid $100,000 for the older 1BR units up to $300,000 for the newer 2 & 3Br units.

Summary: As stated earlier the Newcastle market is dominated by the “Not for Profit” sector with Uniting Care, Catholic Care and the Anglicans being the main players. The vast majority of the units held by these organisations are more than 20 years old and hold large numbers of 1 BR units which are increasingly hard to sell. Market observations indicate that clients are requiring 2Br units as a minimum with 3 BR being quite popular, this allows family and more frequently grand children to visit and stay occasionally. The “Not for Profit” sector is struggling with its ageing stock and where to position itself in the general market. Prospective clients see the Church organisations as providing an umbrella of care from Independent Units through to higher care as a real positive and are generally willing to overlook the older style and less well finished units in the belief that they will be looked after as they age.


This has now seen the Newcastle market split into two distinctive fields, on the one hand the Church Organisations operating as complete campuses (includes Low & High Care) and the private organisations that have marketed themselves as the “Over 55’s” villages. The majority of these villages are offering an alternate life style to the so called early retirees, who are conceivably cashed up “Baby Boomers”. This phenomenon has not completely materialised as yet due to the setbacks of the “GFC” However it is still believed that clients can be enticed from there large suburban homes into downsizing in units providing the complex offers an open and active life style. The preponderance of village type constructions around golf courses is a recent occurrence. Some of these operations have struggled to break even in the early years of operation due to the upfront capital costs of establishing a golf course and associated amenities, which has resulted in high buy in costs for residents. Shortland Waters

• This project offers an advantage in as far as the golf course is already established with a club infrastructure around it. Therefore course establishment costs apart from some upgrades will not have a heavy impact on the cost of unit sale to recover such cost.

• The project is ideally located adjacent to major roads and the nearby wetlands which attract many visitors per year.

• It is also adjacent to a major university and within 5 minutes of a very large shopping complex with doctors and chemists.

• The proposed unit sizes are generous and within market expectations. • Subject to the size and quality of the proposed units pricing could be as

high as the low to mid $400,000 (as with Greenleaf) and average around the mid $300,000 mark. These prices would allow the project to be competitive in the local market, particularly if the interior design is clever in providing for disabled care discreetly.

Robert Mayo Director Robden Property Services. Disclaimer: Robden Property Services is not a qualified valuer and therefore suggested pricing is based only upon both historical knowledge and active participation with numerous clients in the Independent Living field.


Robden Property Services ABN: 12 837 089 625

10 Eleonora Close Whitebridge NSW 2290 Phone: 02 4943 6563 Mobile: 0417 694146 Email: [email protected]

CURRICULUM VITEA

Robden Property Services was established in 2005 and specialises in the

following disciplines

1. Aged Care Services Facility Planning–

Master planning for aged care facility development and upgrading of

existing services

Preparation of design briefs for new facilities and or upgrading of

existing to ensure the architectural plans meet the clients’

requirements

Coordinating the planning process through the preparation of briefs for

the engagement of design consultants

Review of the design processes to ensure compliance with the clients’

requirements

Project Management



2. Asset Mapping-

Mapping of assets within a facility for use with a Facility Management

Program

Condition assessments for the implementation of Preventative

Maintenance programs

Review of maintenance management and planned maintenance

systems procedures

3. Aged Care Certification-

Review of Certification results and implementation of compliance

programs

Robert Mayo-

Is the principle of Robden Property Services and has over thirty years combined

experience in the property management and aged care fields.

Educational Qualifications-

Post Graduate Certificate in Housing Management (Swinburne 1996)

Aged Care Quality Assessor- ETRS 2000

LEADR Professional Mediator 1994

Short Courses-

Risk Management CMS Risk Management Services 2002

Computerised Maintenance MEX 2001, 2007

Rehabilitation Coordination – Workcover 1999

Commonwealth Government Certification Review of Guidelines 1998

Workcover Construction Induction Certificate 2006



Experience-

Robert initially gained experience in maintenance services whilst working for the

Department of Housing NSW for almost twenty two years in the Estates

Management field, and later in Senior Management where he was responsible

for the

Assessment of maintenance on houses and buildings and the

implementation of rectification programs

Consultation in the design of new accommodation for the elderly

Review of large estate planning and Master Planning new programs

Crime prevention planning

Robert gained a further nine years experience as the Director of Asset

Development in the Hunter with Uniting Care Ageing, where he was responsible

for the development of successive Strategic Property Plans and project delivery.

This is demonstrated through

Review and implementation of maintenance programs

Coordination of building projects

Preparation of design briefs

Consultant to Uniting Care Ageing in the development of the Aged

Care Building Design Guideline

Adviser to the wider Aged care community on building design and

certification

Projects Delivered-

1996/7- additions to Irwin Hall Hostel $1.8 million

1997- upgrade of Narla Nursing Home $600,000

1997- upgrade of Narla Hostel $700,000

1998/9- upgrade and additions Garden Suburb N/H $3.5 million



2000- new administration office $500,000

2001/02 new 60 bed hostel Salamander Bay $8 million

2002/04 new 48 bed hostel Singleton $7 million

2002/04 additions to 38 bed Nursing Home Singleton $3 million

Certification works Hunter area $800,000

2005 Gerringong Nursing Home Master Plan

2006/07 Project Manager for Lake Rd. Aged Care Facility $20 million

Preparing a design brief to Maroba Aged Care Services

for a new 94 bed Ageing in Place facility. $16 million

Project Manager Jesmond Park Uniting Church

Redevelopment $1.5 million

Asset Mapping and implementation of computerised

maintenance systems - Sydney Region of Uniting Care

(28 facilities)

Asset Mapping and Condition Reports for Uniting Care

North Sydney (32 facilities)

Master Planning – Nambucca Valley Aged Care Services

Asset Mapping Nambucca Valley Care and review of maintenance

management systems & facilities ( 5 facilities)

Asset mapping and maintenance scheduling of Belmont Golf Club

Currently-

Asset mapping Maroba Aged Care facilities (3 facilities)

Project Coordinator for Catholic Care of the Aged Hunter, 30 bed

addition to Tanilba Bay Hostel & Lochinvar projects $25 miliion

combined.

Master Planning Adelene Retirement Village Wyoming

Project Manager Tea Gardens Aged Care Facility 130 beds $27 million



Project Coordinator Gosford RSL LeisureLiving Planning &

Construction of 27 new Beds $6.5 million

Implementation of Mex maintenance system to Gosford RSL Leisure

Living.


Appendix D –

A Sample of Brochures for Villages in the Study Area

shortland waters-proposal

Documents