sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku ... - bank negara malaysia
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Sidang Akhbar
Prestasi Ekonomi Suku
11 Mei 2021
Pertama Tahun 2021
Global growth improved further in 1Q 2021
Source: CEIC, national authorities
Global Growth Developments
• Labour market improvement
supporting private consumption
• Continued recovery in manufacturing
activity
• Goods trade improved, particularly
regional exports
• However, reintroduction of
containment measures in some
economies weighed on services
activity, contributing to an uneven
pace of global recovery
1
-4.9
-2.4 -2.4 -2.2-1.2
5.16.5
-1.8
0.2 0.4
-0.7
1.8
8.2
18.3
Euro area Singapore US Indonesia Korea Chinese Taipei PRChina
4Q20 1Q21
Real GDP Growth
Annual change (%)
Malaysia’s GDP recorded a better-than-expected performance of -0.5% in 1Q 2021, despite
imposition of MCO 2.0 during the quarter
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
4.7 5.0 4.5 3.7
0.7
-17.2
-2.7 -3.4
-0.5
1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 1Q-20 2Q-20 3Q-20 4Q-20 1Q-21
Real GDP Growth (Quarterly)
Annual change (%)
Annual growth
2020: -5.6%
2019: 4.4%
Key Factors:
Less stringent
containment measures
2
Better external
demand
weighed by…
Growth supported by expansion in exports and improvement in domestic demand
-3.5 -3.6
6.0
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Real GDP Growth (Monthly)
Annual change (%)
Dec-20
-2.1%
Labour shortages and
site shutdowns due to
COVID-19 outbreaks
Improvement in all economic sectors, led by manufacturing
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
3
3.0
6.6
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
-1.0
0.4
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
-4.8
-2.3
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
-10.4
-5.0
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
Manufacturing AgricultureServices Mining Construction
Continued robust
external demand for
E&E production
Expansion in livestock,
forestry & logging, and
other agriculture
subsectors
Improved consumer-
related activities despite
containment measures
Crude oil and natural gas
production improved
Ramp up in commercial
projects nearing completion
and implementation of small-
scale projects
Updated
-13.9
-10.4
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
2.4
5.9
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
Private Consumption
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Private Investment Public Investment Public Consumption Net exports
Household spending
affected by movement
restrictions albeit to a
smaller extent
Higher capital
expenditure particularly in
the services and
manufacturing sectors
Higher spending on fixed
assets by Federal
Government
Higher spending on
emoluments and supplies
and services
Strong exports and
imports driven by higher
external and domestic
demand
4
-3.5
-1.5
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
-6.6
1.3
4Q-21 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
-20.4-18.6
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
10.0
0.8
4Q-20 1Q-21
GDP, Annual change (%)
Updated
Improvement in domestic demand, particularly private sector expenditure
Current account of the balance of payments registered a surplus of RM12.3 billion or
3.3% of GDP
Goods
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Services Primary Income Secondary Income
5
Updated
42.636.6
4Q-20 1Q-21
-7.2-5.7
4Q-20 1Q-21
-14.0 -15.0
4Q-21 1Q-21
-2.7 -3.6
4Q-20 1Q-21
Lower Goods Surplus
Larger Secondary
Income Deficit
• Larger improvement in
in imports amid
pick-up in domestic
demand
• Higher outward
remittances by foreign
workers
RM billon RM billon RM billon RM billon
Larger Services Deficit
• Larger imports of
transport and
construction services
Continued targeted policy support(e.g. PENJANA, 2021 Budget, PERMAI and PEMERKASA)
Stronger external demand driving
improvement in production activities
Malaysia’s economy to continue to benefit from strong external demand and recovery in
domestic conditions
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
6
Continuation of large infrastructure projects (e.g. ECRL, LRT3, Pan-Borneo Highway and JENDELA)
Recovery in labour market conditions
…supported by stronger external demand and recovery in
domestic conditions
Malaysia remains on track to achieve projected growth of
6.0% – 7.5% in 2021…
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2018 2019 2020 2021f
Malaysia’s Real GDP Growth
6.04.3
-5.6
4.8
7.5
Annual change (%)
Pick-up in economic activity, as most sectors
are allowed to operate
Expansion of gross exports is expected to support the overall recovery
The recovery in gross exports growth is
expected to persist…
… in line with the rebound in major trade
partners’ growth…
* Share of 2020 Malaysia’s exports
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Semiconductor Trade Statistics, IC Insights, Department of Statistics Malaysia
… and rising demand for semiconductors
for work-from-home & medical devices
-0.4
-15.1
4.4 5.1
18.2
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21
Gross Exports Growth
%yoy
NEW
7
6.8
13.0
10.9
19.0
WSTS SemiconductorSales
IC Insights Integrated CircuitSales
2020 2021f%yoy
Industry Forecasts for Global Semiconductor Sales
2.3
-5.4
-3.5
8.4
5.2
6.4
PR China(16.2%* of Malaysia's
exports)
Singapore(14.5%* of Malaysia's
exports)
US(11.1%* of Malaysia's
exports)
2020 2021f
Growth in Malaysia’s Key Trade Partners
%yoy
5
10
11
17
18
Personal computing
Medical devices
Automotive
Other industrialelectronicsapplications
Communication &consumer electronics
Stronger production activity in the manufacturing industry
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
NEW
8
Higher overall manufacturing production,
driven by the E&E subsector
Malaysia’s E&E subsector is plugged into
key products* in the global value chain
* Non-exhaustive list
Source: AMCHAM survey
4.0
15.0
81.0
Lower
Same
Higher
E&E exports outlook for 2H 2021 versus 2H 2020% of respondents
Survey: Demand for E&E products to
remain robust throughout 2021
Note: Survey of major E&E firms in Malaysia in March – April 2021
Source: BNM RES
E&E products made in Malaysia% breakdown
Industrial production index (IPI)%yoy
2.4 2.0
4.13.5
4.5
12.7
8.1 8.37.6 7.9
10.3
13.8
Oct-
20
Nov-2
0
Dec-2
0
Ja
n-2
1
Fe
b-2
1
Mar-
21
E&E subsector IPI
Manufacturing IPI
Similar MCO 2.0 and 3.0 restrictions allow most economic activity to continue
* The list of prohibited activities is not exhaustive.
Note: Available information as at 10 May 2021.
Source: MKN
9
MCO 2.0 MCO 3.0
Economic activity
Most economic sectors allowed to operate with
the exception of*:
• Spas, reflexology and gyms
• Classes (e.g. tuition, music, dance)
• Pubs and nightclubs
• Theme parks, karaoke and cinemas
Most economic sectors allowed to operate with
the exception of*:
• Spas, reflexology and massage centres
• Sports facilities (e.g. gyms)
• Pubs and nightclubs
• Theme parks, karaoke and cinemas
Labour restrictions 30% capacity for managerial and supervisory positions
Movement restrictionsInterstate and interdistrict travel prohibited with
limits of 2 passengers per car
Interstate and interdistrict travel prohibited with
limits of 3 passengers per car
Operating hours• Restaurants and food stalls: 6am – 8pm
• Convenience stores and pharmacies:
6am – 8pm
• Restaurants and food stalls: 6am – 10pm
• Convenience stores: 6am – 12am
• Pharmacies: 6am – 10pm
Dine-ins Prohibited
Social activities (weddings,
reunions, kenduri)Prohibited
Most economic activity allowed to continue during MCO 3.0, similar with MCO 2.0
Actual data indicates impact due to imposition of MCO 2.0 was much less significant
compared to the MCO 1.0 in 2020
Similar factors are in place in MCO 3.0 to
cushion the impact to economic activities
1 MCO 2.0 data for GDP, IOWRT and Manufacturing IPI refers to the Jan-Feb 2021 average, and 13 Jan – 4 Mar 2021 for Google Mobility. MCO 1.0 data for GDP, IOWRT and Manufacturing IPI refers to the Mar-Apr 2020
average, and 18 Mar – 3 May 2020 for Google Mobility
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Google Mobility Community Reports
Most economic sectors allowed to
operate, subject to SOPs
10
-17-22 -21
-59 -61
-4 -2
4
-20
-26
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Average monthlyGDP
Index of Wholesale &Retail Trade Manufacturing IPI
Google Mobility*(Retail & Grocery)
Google Mobility*(Workplaces)
MCO 1.0
MCO 2.0
Economic and Mobility Indicators during Containment Measures1
% yoy, % change from pre-COVID baseline*
Continued economic activities
through online platforms
The nation is more accustomed
to SOPs
Early signs of recovery in the labour market despite imposition of containment measures
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
* Tourism-related industries include wholesale retail, administrative and support services,
accommodation and F&B, transportation and storage, entertainment and recreation
Source: Employment Insurance System, Social Security Organisation
Continued decline in jobless claims and increase in job
placement rate indicate better employment conditions
5.0
5.3
4.9
4.7 4.74.6
4.74.8 4.8
4.94.8
4.7
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Unemployment rate
3.0 4.88.2 7.5
3.6 2.8 2.8 4.6 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.5 1.8
3.2
5.2
10.49.2
5.64.6 4.6
4.53.5 5.2
3.5 3.3 3.2
Apr-20 May-20Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Tourism-related*
Non tourism-related
Jobless claims
Thousands of persons
20
8 6 11
25
43
55
3740
30 3337 40
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
Placement rates
40 new job placements
for every 100 jobs lost
11
Employment and unemployment rate improved despite
temporary disruption caused by MCO 2.0 in Jan-21
Share of labour force (%) Number of new job placements for every 100 job losses
14,93314,888
14,990
15,073
15,15415,193 15,207 15,196 15,215 15,237
15,27115,329
Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Employment levels
Thousands of persons
Households
Fiscal and financial measures mainly benefitting households and businesses in 2021
Targeted policy support remains in place for affected segments to alleviate the economic
impact of the pandemic
BNM’s Fund for SMEs
Danajamin PRIHATIN Guarantee SchemeRM39 bnavailable8
Businesses
Additional Prihatin Special Grant (GKP) RM 0.9 bndisbursed7
1 As at 16 April 2021 (Source: 52nd LAKSANA report)2 As at 4 May 2021 (Source: 52nd LAKSANA report)3 Cumulative up to end-March 2021
(Source: 48th LAKSANA report)4 Total beneficiaries and applications as at 30 April 2021
(Source: EIS, SOCSO)
12
95%approval rate5
1.6 mnapplications5
Targeted Repayment Assistance (TRA) Targeted Repayment Assistance (TRA)
EPF Account 1 Withdrawal (i-Sinar) RM 55.9 bnapproved1
Bantuan Prihatin Rakyat (BPR) RM 4.68 bnallocation2
137,290persons3
Skills & Talent Enhancement
RM 5.2 bnavailable6
5 From 7 August 2020 to 26 March 2021 (Source: BNM)6 As at 23 April (Source: BNM)7 As at February 2021 (Source: 52nd LAKSANA report) 8 As at 6 May 2021 (Source: Danajamin)9 Since inception in 2019
12
2,857,644employees4Wage Subsidy
345,965employers4 Wage Subsidy
Repayment assistance, debt advisory & resolution
> 20,000 SMEs advised9
MyDigital (e.g. RM21 billion under JENDELA)
• RM70.0 billion
• Duration: 2021-2030
• Microsoft: US$1 billion investment over the next five years in
Malaysia to set up data centres (The Edge, 19 Apr 2021)
Investment activity will be supported by key strategic projects
Source: Newsflows
Progress based on work doneKey infrastructure projects
• Infineon Technologies: RM3.25 billion investment in the country
over a span of 10 years until 2029. (NST, 19 Sep 2020)
• Western Digital: Higher investments by RM2.3 billion to
upgrade the hard disc drive manufacturer's production capacity.
(Channel News Asia, 5 Nov 2020)
• SK Nexilis: RM2.3 billion investment to set up its first overseas
production base in Malaysia. (The Star, 26 Jan 2021)
Recent announcements by MNCs to invest in Malaysia
13
ECRL
• RM50.0 billion
• Duration: 2018-2027
LRT3
• RM16.6 billion
• Duration: 2018-2024
MRT2
• RM30.5 billion
• Duration: 2016-2023
51%
89%
21%
Manufacturing: E&E
Manufacturing: Resource-based
Services: Digital-related sector
2021 and beyond: Continued capital spending in major infrastructure projects and investment
intentions by the private sector
Digitalisation continues to gain traction to support the growth of the digital economy
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia,
Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation
14
Updated
Online banking1
transaction volume
1 Financial and non-financial transactions2 Network-based e-money3 Non-exhaustive4 Investment Promotion Agencies
Merchants adopting
e-commerce
E-wallet2
transaction volume
Merchant registrations
for QR payments
209
million
773k
490k
Q1’ 21
3.9
billion
+56%
142
million+48%
293k+164%
244k+101%
Q1’ 20
20202019
...with roll-out of strategic initiatives to catalyse the nation’s
digitalisation agenda3
National
E-Commerce
Strategic
Roadmap 2.0
Digital
Investment
Office
• Targets 875k MSMEs adopting e-
commerce and 84k SMEs exporting
overseas by 2025 (2020: 490k, 27k)
• Fully-digital platform to strengthen
coordination across all IPAs4
• Facilitate digital investments to position
Malaysia as a Digital Hub for ASEAN
Malaysia
Digital Economy
Blueprint
• A strategic roadmap of policy priorities
and initiatives to advance the nation’s
digital economy
Jalinan Digital
Negara
• Upgrades to fixed and mobile broadband
on track and exceeded quarterly targets
• 5G planning and implementation to begin
in 2021 instead of 2023 previously
6.1
billion
Greater adoption of digital solutions by individuals and
businesses…
Source: Economic Planning Unit, Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission,
Malaysia Digital Economy Corporation
Risk to 2021 growth remains tilted to the downside, arising primarily from
pandemic-related challenges
▼ Escalation in COVID-19 cases leading to stricter containment measures globally and domestically
▼ Slower-than-expected rollout of vaccines
▼ Uncertainty arising from global oil and commodity price developments
▼ Slower-than-expected progress of major infrastructure projects
▼ Greater financial market volatility
▲ Higher-than-expected global growth
▲ Higher-than-expected production from existing and new manufacturing facilities
▲ Stronger-than-expected impact from policy support
15
Downside
risks
Upside
risks
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
4Q 2020 1Q 2021
Other price-administered items (ppt)
Fuel (ppt)
Price-volatile items (ppt)
Core inflation¹ (ppt)
Annual change in inflation and contribution to headline inflation
Contribution to headline inflation (ppt)
Headline inflation turned positive in 1Q 2021 and is expected to average 2.5% – 4.0% for the year
Higher headline inflation in 2021 due to the cost-push factor of
higher global oil prices, while core inflation to remain subdued
1Core inflation is computed by excluding price-volatile and price-administered items. It also excludes the
estimated direct impact of consumption tax policy changes.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Temporary spike in 2Q 2021 due to the base effect
from domestic retail fuel prices, and expected to
moderate thereafter as this base effect dissipates
Core inflation to remain subdued, averaging 0.5% -
1.5%, amid continued spare capacity in the economy
Headline inflation increased to 0.5% in 1Q 2021, mainly due to
base effect from fuel prices and lapse in impact from electricity
tariff rebates
0.9
-2.6
-1.4 -1.5
0.5
1.3 1.21.0
0.80.7
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1Q2020
2Q2020
3Q2020
4Q2020
1Q2021
Headline inflation (%)
Core inflation¹ (%)
Annual change (%)
16
Assessments for 2021
2
1
Apr-May
~6.5% – 7.0%e
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
June
Below 5%e
e Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Updated
Monetary policy remains accommodative
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
• Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) was
maintained at 1.75% at the May MPC
meeting
• Monetary policy in 2021 will remain
accommodative to support the economic
recovery, while ensuring price pressures
remain manageable. The Bank also
remains vigilant against a build-up of
financial imbalances
• Given ongoing uncertainties surrounding
pandemic, monetary policy going forward
will continue to be determined by new
data and information
May-21 1.75%
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)
%
17
Domestic financial markets were affected by external and domestic factors
*Change in exchange rate against the US dollar from 1 April to 7 May 2021
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Reuters
*Regional countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, PR China, Singapore, South Korea and
Thailand. YTD as at 7 May 2021.
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bloomberg
Broad USD strengthening amid the rise in US Treasury yields MGS yields increased amid the rise in US Treasury yields,
while equities declined due mainly to domestic uncertainties
surrounding COVID-19 developments
-66.2
61.9
-18.9-60.8
70.3
-17.5
-100.0
-40.0
20.0
80.0
2020 1Q21 Since 1 April
Malaysia Regional Avg
Movement of 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields
bps
2.4
-3.3
0.91.82.8
0.2
-5
5
2020 1Q21 Since 1 April
Malaysia Regional Avg
Movement of Equity Prices
%
18
Updated
Movement of Exchange Rate against the US dollar
0.5
1.0
2.0
1.0
1.1
2.2
1.3
1.6
-4.6
-4.1
-3.5
-3.5
-1.9
-1.6
-1.1
-0.5
-6.0 -3.0 0.0 3.0
THB
KRW
IDR
MYR
SGD
TWD
PHP
CNY
1Q 21 Since 1 April*
Continued expansion in net financing
Net financing expanded by 4.7% during
the quarter, supported mainly by loans
Higher business loan disbursements
and repayments, including in the SME
segment
Note: Data refers to loans from banking system and development financial institutions (DFIs), *Excludes issuances by Cagamas and non-residents
Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Demand for household loan demand
remained forthcoming
2.73.2
1.71.5
4.44.7
4Q 2020 1Q 2021
Outstanding corporate bonds*
Outstanding loans
Net financing
Net Financing*
Annual change, % / Cont. to growth, ppt
Household Loan Application for Residential
Property and Passenger Car
RM bn
19
197 204228
196 207221
2017 - 19Quarterly average
4Q 2020 1Q 2021
Disbursements Repayments
Business Loan Disbursements and Repayments
RM bn
SME Loan Disbursements and Repayments
52
42
87
80 81
16
10
2422 21
1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021
Passenger Car
2017-19 quarterly average: RM60bn
2017-19 quarterly average: RM17bn
Residential Property
75 7378
74 72 74
2017 - 19Quarterly average
4Q 2020 1Q 2021
Disbursements Repayments
Financing to SME expanded by 10%1, complemented by other schemes and a supportive
financing ecosystem
SME financing disbursements remained conducive in 1Q
2021, with steady repayments
Comprehensive financing ecosystem will continue to provide
support to SMEs in all economic sectors
1 Refers to the annual growth of outstanding loans in 1Q 2021
Note: Banking system and development financial institutions (DFI)
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
2 As at 28 April 20213 Since inception in 20184 Since inception in 2019
RM bn
20
RM5.2 bil2 available BNM’s Fund
for SMEs
Guarantee schemes
Financing referral
Repayment assistance,
debt advisory &
resolution
Capacity building
& advisory
Financing schemes
RM340 mil approved
for 3.5k SMEs3
CGC o/s guarantee
+25% in 2020
> 20k SMEs advised
by MyKNP4
RM1.0 bil disbursed in 1Q21
SME Financing Indicators
77.6(+22% yoy) 73.7
(+12% yoy)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Disbursements Repayments
3Q 2020 4Q 2020 1Q 2021 2017-19 Qtrly Average
Banks continue to build up loan loss
provisions albeit at a slower pace…
Provisions(RM billion)
1.6
2.4
3.5
2.1
1.41.5
1.71.8
0
2
3
5
6
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21
QoQ Change Total (as % of total loans)
Banking system remains resilient and well-positioned to support ongoing economic
recovery
…amid higher impairments and elevated
loans with increased credit risk…
Note:
1. Refers to loans that have exhibited deterioration in credit risk, for which banks are required to set aside provisions based on lifetime expected losses
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Healthy capital and liquidity buffers will
continue to support financial
intermediation activities
Gross Impaired Loans and Stage 2 Loans1 Ratios (%)
Total Capital Ratio and Liquidity Coverage Ratio (%)
1.44
1.37
1.561.588.4 7.9
10.2 10.0
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21
Impaired Loans MFRS 9* Stage 2 Loans
* MFRS 9 - Malaysian Financial Reporting Standard 9
Total Capital Ratio
Dec-20: 18.8
Sep-20: 18.5
18.1
Liquidity Coverage Ratio
Dec-20: 148.2
Sep-20: 151.5
145.1
21
Malaysia’s GDP recorded better growth in 1Q 2021, with a smaller
decline of 0.5%
Most economic activity allowed to continue during MCO 3.0, similar with MCO 2.0
Targeted policy support and continuation of large public projects to mitigate impact of
re-imposition of containment measures
Strong external demand to provide main support to growth, amidst improving
domestic conditions
In a nutshell…
22
UpdatedUpdated
Malaysia remains on track to register growth within the range of 6.0 – 7.5% for 2021
End of Presentation
Additional Information
Malaysian GDP growth improved to -0.5% in 1Q 2021
Annual change in GDP growth by component
1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Add. Info
Real GDP
(% YoY)
Share1 %
(2020)
2020 2021
1Q 4Q 1Q
Services 57.7 3.1 -4.8 -2.3
Manufacturing 22.9 1.4 3.0 6.6
Agriculture 7.4 -8.6 -1.0 0.4
Mining and Quarrying 6.8 -2.9 -10.4 -5.0
Construction 4.0 -7.9 -13.9 -10.4
Real GDP 100.0 0.7 -3.4 -0.5
Real GDP
(% YoY)
Share, %
(2020)
2020 2021
1Q 4Q 1Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)93.8 3.7 -4.5 -1.0
Private Sector 75.1 4.9 -4.0 -0.9
Consumption 59.5 6.7 -3.5 -1.5
Investment 15.7 -1.1 -6.6 1.3
Public Sector 18.6 -1.8 -5.7 -1.5
Consumption 13.4 4.9 2.4 5.9
Investment 5.2 -14.4 -20.4 -18.6
Net exports of goods and
services6.5 -36.8 10.0 0.8
Exports 61.5 -7.2 -2.1 11.9
Imports 55.0 -2.7 -3.3 13.0
Change in stocks, RM bn -0.3 -3.0 -0.9 -1.6
Real GDP 100.0 0.7 -3.4 -0.5
23
Malaysian GDP growth improved to -0.5% in 1Q 2021
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth by component
1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Add. Info
Real GDP
(Ppt contribution, %)
Share1 %
(2020)
2020 2021
1Q 4Q 1Q
Services 57.7 1.8 -2.8 -1.3
Manufacturing 22.9 0.3 0.7 1.5
Agriculture 7.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0
Mining and Quarrying 6.8 -0.2 -0.7 -0.4
Construction 4.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5
Real GDP 100.0 0.7 -3.4 -0.5
24
Real GDP
(Ppt contribution, %)
Share, %
(2020)
2020 2021
1Q 4Q 1Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)93.8 3.4 -4.2 -0.9
Private Sector 75.1 3.7 -2.9 -0.7
Consumption 59.5 3.9 -2.0 -0.9
Investment 15.7 -0.2 -0.9 0.2
Public Sector 18.6 -0.3 -1.3 -0.2
Consumption 13.4 0.6 0.4 0.7
Investment 5.2 -0.9 -1.7 -0.9
Net exports of goods and
services6.5 -3.2 0.6 0.0
Exports 61.5 -4.7 -1.3 7.2
Imports 55.0 -1.5 -1.9 7.1
Change in stocks -0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4
Real GDP 100.0 0.7 -3.4 -0.5
Add. Info
25
Financial account registered a net inflow in 1Q 2021
This was driven by inflows in all major accounts
*As per the IMF’s BPM5 classifications (i.e. directional basis)
Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia; and Bank Negara Malaysia
RM billion
2019 2020 2021
Year 3Q 4Q Year 1Q
Direct Investment 6.6 -2.2 1.6 2.8 1.4
Direct Investment Abroad (DIA)* -25.8 -1.8 -5.2 -11.9 -7.8
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)* 32.4 -0.3 6.8 14.6 9.1
Portfolio Investment -32.4 -20.3 -7.1 -48.2 0.4
Residents -46.9 -20.8 -19.9 -59.3 -14.2
Non-residents 14.5 0.5 12.8 11.1 14.6
Financial Derivatives -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 0.4 0.3
Other Investment -11.7 -8.1 -3.7 -31.1 13.9
Financial Account Balance -38.0 -31.1 -10.2 -76.2 16.0
Higher FDI inflows amid larger DIA
outflows
Turnaround in portfolio investment
Significant other investment inflows
Financial Account by Component
Add. Info
26
Higher FDI net inflows in 1Q 2021
This was driven by larger reinvestment of earnings and sustained equity injections into Malaysia
Larger reinvestment of earnings
+RM4.1 billion in 1Q-21 (4Q-20: -RM1.9 billion)
Continued equity injections
+RM4.4 billion in 1Q-21 (4Q-20: +RM4.3 billion)
Lower debt inflows
+RM0.7 billion in 1Q-21 (4Q-20: +RM4.3 billion)
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia
3.82.7
6.4 5.7
2.5
-0.3
6.89.1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 1Q-20 2Q-20 3Q-20 4Q-20 1Q-21
Equity and investment fund shares Reinvestment of earnings
Debt instruments FDI
Quarterly Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
RM billion
Malaysia’s external debt remains manageable
* Consist of currency and deposit placements, and portfolio investments
** Consist of short-term financial institutions’ deposits, interbank borrowings and loans from unrelated counterparties
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Banks are resilient to face potential
external shocks…
…while corporates’ external debt is
mainly subject to prudential requirements
64.0
111.0
125.9
60.2
19.6
13.0
Corporate External Debt Breakdown by Instrument
(as at end-1Q 2021)
RM billion
Total: RM393.8 billion
Bonds and
notes
Loans
Other debt liabilities
Intragroup
loans
Trade
credits
On
concessionary
and flexible
terms
Subject to
prudential
requirements
NR holdings of domestic
debt securities
Backed by
export earnings
140.8
74.2
Liquid externalassets
Externaldebt-at-risk
Banks’ Liquid External Assets* and External Debt-
at-Risk**
RM billion
4.6
3.5
0
2
4
6
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2020 2021
FX USD
Banks’ FX and USD Net Open Positions as
Percentage of Capital
% of total capital
Add. Info
…and Government’s external debt mainly
in ringgit
23.4
222.2
Government External Debt Breakdown by
Currency (as at end-1Q 2021)RM billion
Total: RM245.6 billion
Foreign currency-denominated
Ringgit-denominated
Not affected by ringgit exchange rate
fluctuations
Comprise medium- and long-term loans and
bonds and notes, suggesting limited rollover risks
27
Banks continue to extend support to borrowers in need of repayment assistance
While impact of MCO 2.0 is less severe, distressed borrowers
continue to approach banks for repayment assistance albeit at
a more moderate pace
Note:
1. Data from April 2020 to 11 April 2021
2. Refers to individual repayments excluding credit cards
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Repayments remained close to 1Q 2020
levels, indicating most borrowers able to
sustain resumption of payments
1.6 millionR&R applications received
to date
with 95% approval rate
101,326
29,250for AKPK’s Debt
Management
Programme
Applications for AKPK
counselling
Loan Repayments
(RM billion)
Households2
18.3
19.0
1Q20monthlyaverage
Mar-21 104%Of levels seen in
1Q 2020
Statistics on Assistance Measures1
(Year-to-date)
Loans under Repayment Assistance
(%)
SMEs
21.5
26.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0
1Q20monthlyaverage
Mar-21 121%Of levels seen in
1Q 2020
8.911.4
Dec-20 Mar-21
9.5 10.5
Dec-20 Mar-21
11.113.9
1
6
11
16
21
Dec-20 Mar-21
16.8 16.6
Dec-20 Mar-21
Share of accounts
Share of loan value
Households Businesses
Add. Info
28