sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku kedua tahun 2019 · 2019-09-17 · ppt contribution to gdp....
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Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Kedua Tahun 2019
Gabenor
Bank Negara Malaysia
16 Ogos 2019
Sidang Akhbar
2
Sidang akhbar akan meliputi
Perkembangan ekonomi global dan serantau
Prestasi ekonomi Malaysia pada suku kedua 2019
Keadaan monetari dan kewangan
Challenging global economic environment
3
Slower growth across advanced and emerging market economies 1
2
3
Weak external demand amid ongoing trade tensions
Heightened global uncertainty
Global growth to moderate in 2019
4
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, CEIC
…as reflected in slower manufacturing activity Global growth is on a moderating trend…
Global GDP Growth Forecast Global Manufacturing PMI
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
Feb
-17
Apr-
17
Jun-1
7
Aug-1
7
Oct-
17
De
c-1
7
Feb
-18
Apr-
18
Jun-1
8
Aug-1
8
Oct-
18
De
c-1
8
Feb
-19
Apr-
19
Jun-1
9
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market Economies
Index
3.6
2.2
4.5
3.2
1.9
4.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Global AdvancedEconomies
EmergingMarket
Economies
2017 2018 2019f
yoy, %
Contraction <50
Weak external demand amid ongoing trade tensions
5
Source: CEIC, Ahir, Bloom and Furceri (2012), “The World Uncertainty Index”
…amid heightened global trade uncertaintySluggish global export growth…
Export Volume Growth World Trade Uncertainty Index
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-1
8
Oct-
18
Jan-1
9
Apr-
19
World
Advanced Economies
Emerging Market Economies
% yoy
0
1
2
3
4
5
2Q-13 2Q-15 2Q-17 2Q-19
Start of trade
tensions
Index
Strength in private sector expenditure, recovery in commodity output and higher net exports
offset weak public investment activity
Higher net exports • Export growth amid decline in imports
Resilient private sector
expenditure
• Faster expansion in household spending
• Slightly higher private investment growth
6
Malaysia’s growth accelerated in 2Q 2019 despite global headwinds
Recovery in commodity
output
• Rebound in natural gas production
• Continued improvement in palm oil yields
Weak public investment• Continued contraction in public
corporations’ capital spending
The Malaysian economy recorded a stronger growth of 4.9% in the
second quarter
7
Growth supported by continued expansion across all economic sectors
Annual change, %
4.5
4.9
3
4
5
6
7
1Q-17 2Q-17 3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19
Real GDP Growth
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Expansion across all economic sectors
-2.1
2.9
1Q-19 2Q-19
0.3 0.5
1Q-19 2Q-19
4.2 4.3
1Q-19 2Q-19
5.6
4.2
1Q-19 2Q-19
Annual change, %
Growth supported by the recovery from commodity supply disruptions and improved performance in
the manufacturing and construction sectors
MiningManufacturing Agriculture ConstructionServices
Recovery in natural gas
output from supply
disruptions in 2018
Better performance of
the domestic-oriented
industries
Decline in fishing and
forestry segment and
weaker natural rubber
output partially offset
by continued recovery
in palm oil yields
Improvements in the
residential and special
trade sub-sectors
Sustained growth in the
wholesale and retail
trade sub-sector
8
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
6.4 6.1
1Q-19 2Q-19
Continued private sector expenditure underpinned by both private consumption and investment
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Private sector spending remained the key driver of growth
Firm private sector expenditure
• Stronger expansion in household spending
amid slight improvement in private investment
Weak public investment
• Continued contraction in capital outlays by
public corporations
Annual change, % /
Ppt contribution to GDP
Quarterly GDP growth
4.9
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19
Public consumption Change in stocks
Private consumption Private investment
Public investment Net exports
GDP growth
4.4 4.7 4.5
9
Higher net exports
• Import growth contracted while export growth
was sustained
5.3 4.5
Private consumption growth remained firm
10
* Real private sector wages are derived from the nominal salaries and wages data, published in the Monthly Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services Statistics by
the Department of Statistics, Malaysia (covering 62.9% of total employment). The nominal private sector wages are then deflated by the consumer price index (CPI).
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Household spending lifted by above-average real wage growth
and several Government measures
7.6
7.8
5
6
7
8
9
10
2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19
Going forward, consumer
spending to remain
supported by:
Real Private Consumption Growth
Continued income and
employment growth
Supportive Government
policies
5.2
3.6
0
2
4
6
2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19
Annual change, %
Real Private Sector Wage Growth*
Annual change, %
2015-2018 average: 3.1%
11
0.4
1.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
2Q 17 4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, RAM BCI, Bank Negara Malaysia
Annual change, %
Slight rebound in private investment…
Real Private Investment Growth
…but, downside risks remain
Persistent weakness in the
property segment
Heightened global uncertainty
and slower global growth
Private investment growth improved
Malaysia’s Exports by Product
Slight recovery in exports and smaller decline in import growth
12
Marginal turnaround in
export growth
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bloomberg
0.2
-10
0
10
20
30
2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19
Annual change, %
Export Growth
-1.2
-10
0
10
20
30
2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19
Annual change, %
Import Growth
Diversified exports helped
mitigate impact of weaker
E&E export growth…
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19
Korea
Singapore (non-oil)
C. Taipei
Thailand
Malaysia
…as reflected by Malaysia’s
exports compared to regional
economies
Annual change, %
Regional Economies Export
Performance in USD Terms
-0.7
0.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19
E&E Non-E&E
Agriculture Mineral
Overall
Ppt contr./Annual change, %
Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19
Box Article: Unresolved trade tensions pose a multitude of challenges,
risks and opportunities
Source: National authorities, newsflows
Protracted trade disputes may have significant
structural implications
Vacillation of trade developments in the past year
have generated major uncertainties
Summary of Key Developments
Rest of the World
Delay
automobile
tariff
Tariff on
Mexico
suspended
Remove steel & alum. tariff
from Mexico and Canada
G20: Tariff truce US delay
tariff on
USD200bn
Increase tariff on USD200bn
and impose trade
restrictions on Huawei
PR China
retaliates
Tariff truce
Threaten tariff
on Mexico
Canada impose tariff on US
Steel tariff on
Turkey; Turkey
retaliates
US impose
tariff on India
India
retaliates
Tariff on
Vietnam
EU, Canada and Mexico
US files dispute with WTO
PR China file
dispute with WTO
Subdued global growth1
Ongoing growth moderation dragged
lower by trade disputes
Reconfiguration of
Global Value Chains3
Short- and long-term opportunities for
Malaysia
High financial volatility and
investor uncertainty2
Uncertainty over trade policies at an
all-time high
13
US announce
10% on
USD300 bn of
imports and
designate PR
China as
currency
manipulator
Es
ca
lati
ng
te
ns
ion
sD
e-e
sc
ala
tio
no
f te
ns
ion
s
PR China
Further escalation of trade tensions will weigh on growth outlook
Lower downside risks in latest assessment due mainly to delay in implementation of selected tariffs
Ppt. contribution, %
Summary of Downside Risk Estimates for 2019
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Malaysia GDP
-0.9 to -1.1 ppt
Global GDP
-0.6 to -0.8 ppt
Malaysia Exports
-1.2 to -1.7 ppt
Global Trade
-1.0 to -1.5 ppt
Global GDP
~ -0.1 ppt
Global Trade
~ -0.1 ppt
3Q 2018 Quarterly Bulletin Current
Malaysia Exports
~ -0.2 ppt
Malaysia GDP
~ -0.1 ppt
14
15
Current account of the balance of payments registered a surplus of
RM14.3 billion or 3.9% of GNI
0.9
3.0
4.7
3.9
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19
% of GNIRM billion
Secondary Income
Primary Income
Services
Goods
Current Account Balance, % of GNI (RHS)
Current account surplus remained sizeable
Current account balance (CA)
Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
Continued goods surplus
• Demand from key trade
partners to expand, albeit
more moderately
Services and income accounts
to remain in deficit
• Reliance on foreign service
providers
• Substantial income accrued to
foreign investors
Current account to remain in surplus
16
Note: Numbers do not add up due to rounding
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
RM billion2018 2019
1H 1Q 2Q 1H
Direct Investment 8.7 16.3 -8.2 8.0
Direct Investment Abroad -6.7 -5.5 -12.6 -18.1
Foreign Direct Investment 15.5 21.7 4.4 26.1
Portfolio Investment -39.4 2.1 -10.2 -8.1
Resident -10.3 -11.4 -5.0 -16.5
Non-resident -29.1 13.5 -5.1 8.4
Financial Derivatives 1.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7
Other Investments 51.5 -31.9 0.3 -31.6
Financial Account
Balance22.4 -13.8 -18.6 -32.4
Financial Account by Components
Financial account recorded a net outflow
The financial account registered a net outflow amounting
to RM18.6 billion
Higher DIA
Reversal of non-resident
portfolio investments
Continued, albeit lower, FDI
Monetary and Financial Developments
17
Headline inflation increased to 1.5% in June 2019
18
1Core inflation is computed by excluding price-volatile and price-administered items. It also excludes the estimated direct impact of consumption tax policy changes.2Others include price-volatile items and other price-administered items
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Annual change, % /
Ppt contribution to headline inflation
1.5
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oct-
18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Core inflation¹(ppt)
Fuel (ppt)
Net impact of consumption tax policy changes (ppt)
Others² (ppt)
Headline inflation (%)
Core inflation¹ (%)
Contribution to Headline Inflation by Component
• Headline inflation is expected to
average higher in 2H 2019
following the lapse in the impact
of consumption tax policy
changes
• Underlying inflation is expected to
remain stable2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019
1.3 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.6Headline inflation
Domestic financial markets have been moving in tandem with regional
markets, reflecting global developments
*YTD as at 15 August 2019
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Movement of Ringgit and Regional Currencies against the
US Dollar
Movement of domestic financial markets during the quarter has been driven mainly by
external factors
19
-8.4
-2.7
-2.2
-2.0
-1.7
-1.3
0.02
1.3
5.7
-4.7
-1.3
-2.2
-3.3
-2.5
-1.2
-2.5
-1.0
-0.2
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
KRW
TWD
CNY
INR
SGD
MYR
PHP
IDR
THB
Since July YTD*
%
Movement Range of 5-Year Sovereign Bond Yields and
Equity Prices of Regional Markets since July*
*Movement change from 1 July to 14 August 2019. Regional countries include
Indonesia, the Philippines, PR China, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand
Source: Bloomberg, Bank Negara Malaysia
(-92.8)
(-0.6)
(-16.8)
(-9.0)
(-1.4)
(-4.3)
(Regional min/max change) (Malaysia change)
Equity price
(%)
5Y Bond
(bps)
Non-residents registered net inflows into bonds since June 2019
20
Malaysian bond yields edged lower in line with
global bond yields
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia and Bloomberg
NR holdings of Malaysian Govt bonds stood at
22.2% as at end-July 2019…
Regional Government 10-yr Bond Yields (Normalised)
As at
14/08/2019
Regional 10-year Bond Yields
Malaysia US Thailand Indonesia
Change in
yields (bps)-66 -111 -102 -55
Current yield
(%)3.42 1.58 1.47 7.43
Volatility 0.16 0.30 0.25 0.28
Index
Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of Government
Bonds as at end-June 2019.
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
0
100
200
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
NR holdings of Govt Bond (LHS)
% NR of Govt (RHS)
41.5%29.4%
19.2%7.1%
1.6% 1.2%0
20
40
60
80
AssetMgmt.
CentralBanks/Govts.
PensionFunds
Banks InsuranceCompanies
Others
Non-resident Holdings of Malaysian Government Bonds
RM billion % NR
Holdings
RM billion
…with long term stable investors remained as
key holders of Malaysian government bonds
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
US 10-yr Malaysia 10-yr
Indonesia 10-yr Thailand 10-yr
External debt remains manageable
21
1 Changes in individual debt instruments exclude exchange rate revaluation effects2 Comprise trade credits, IMF allocation of SDRs and other debt liabilities
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
External debt increased to 61.3% of GDP
(1Q 2019: 59.5%)Banks’ external assets rose in tandem
with their external debt
Changes in External Debt1
2Q 2019: +RM27.4 billion
-6.3
-2.8-1.5 -0.9
0.1
5.1
13.0
20.7
NRholdingsof dom.
debtsecurities
NRdeposits
Loans Others² Bonds ¬es
Inter-company
loans
ERval.
effects
Interbankborrowings
RM billion
Corresponding increase in banks’ external assets
2Q 2019: +RM22.8 billion
25.2
22.8
External debt External assets
Increase in Banks’ External Assets and Liabilities
(RM billion)
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Further deepening of Malaysia’s onshore financial market following
measures to enhance market accessibility and liquidity
22
Foreign Exchange (FX) Volume and MYR FX Forward
Volume
A deep and liquid financial market is
fundamental to preserve market stability:
• A well-defined legal framework, robust
market infrastructure and sound
macroeconomic fundamentals remain key
to Malaysia’s attractiveness to investors.
• Initiatives to meet the diversified needs of
investors:
Appointed Overseas Offices (AOOs)
as a gateway to invest in Malaysia
Dynamic hedging programme for
institutional investors’ risk
management
USD bnUSD bn
Malaysia's onshore FX market continues to
grow in support of economic activity
0
4
8
12
16
0
50
100
150
200
2016 2017 2018 1H-2019
Total MYR FX Forward Volume
Average daily FX volume (RHS)
Initiatives to further enhance market accessibility and liquidity
23
Greater flexibility (longer tenor limit and wider range of repo securities) proposed under
revised repo guidelines
Principal Dealers will quote all off-the-run bonds available under the Bank’s Securities
Operations, in addition to their existing commitment to provide quotes for benchmark bonds
Standard documentation guide for FX transactions made available for convenient reference by
market participants
Improved ringgit accessibility after onshore trading hours via Appointed Overseas Offices
(AOOs) for non-resident investors and corporates
Foreign exchange administration (FEA) liberalisation measures to
support business efficiency
Enhancing hedging flexibility to promote sound risk management
Flexibility to hedge up
to underlying tenure1 2 3
Flexibility to hedge on
anticipatory basis
• Residents are free to hedge
foreign currency current
account obligations up to
underlying tenure
(previously up to 12 months)
• Resident treasury centres in
Malaysia are free to hedge on
behalf of their related entities
with a licensed onshore bank
• Non-resident treasury centres
registered with the Bank are
free to hedge on behalf of their
related entities with a licensed
onshore bank or AOO
(previously required approval)
• Non-residents are free to
hedge on an anticipatory
basis via AOO for
settlement of trade in
goods and services
(previously required approval)
Flexibility to hedge
via treasury centres
Revised definition of domestic ringgit borrowing
Ringgit credit facilities which are used by corporates for miscellaneous expenses such as
sundry and employees’ travel expenses are excluded from domestic ringgit borrowing
4
24
25
Financial institutions are well-capitalised, with strong liquidity buffers
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Total Capital Ratio Capital Adequacy
(%) Ratio (%)
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and
Total High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA)
Domestic financial stability continues to be supported by resilient
financial institutions
2Q 191Q 19
Insurance/ Takaful SectorBanking System
Stress tests continue to affirm financial institutions’ resilience to severe shocks under adverse
macroeconomic and financial conditions
236.8230.0
18.0
17.4
RM billion LCR (%)
613.0
153.0
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
500
600
700
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
4Q
18
1Q
19
2Q
19
Total High Quality Liquid Asset Liquidity Coverage Ratio (RHS)
Financing continues to facilitate economic activity
Higher loan disbursements to households and
businesses, but higher repayments led to
lower outstanding loan growth
*Loans from the banking system and DFIs
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
**Banking system only
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Demand for financing showing some signs of
improvement given higher loan applications
during the quarter
Loans Disbursed*
162
359
225133183
391
239152
Households Businesses Non-SMEs SMEs
Average Jan - Jun (2014 - 2018) 2019 Jan - Jun
-4.3
-10.2
2.3 3.8
Households Businesses
1Q19 2Q19
Loans Repaid*
RM billion
RM billion
Growth in Loan Applications**
Annual Change, %
1Q 2019
4.4%
2Q 2019
4.6%153
353224
129183
393
239153
Households Businesses Non-SMEs SMEs
Average Jan - Jun (2014 - 2018) 2019 Jan - Jun
Domestic Demand
Annual Change, %
26
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
2Q
-19
Credit to Private Sector
Real GDP
Important to ensure credit growth is consistent with economic expansion
Current pace of credit expansion in
Malaysia is in line with economic activity
Credit to Private Sector and GDP
Note: Includes outstanding loans from the banking system and DFIs, and corporate bonds
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Vulnerabilities can develop from a
misalignment between credit and
economic activity
GFC
Annual Change, %
These vulnerabilities, if not properly
managed, can pose risks to economic
sustainability
27
Monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable growth
amid price stability
28
• Overnight Policy Rate was kept
unchanged at 3.00% at the July 2019
MPC meeting
• The MPC will continue to assess the
balance of risks surrounding the outlook
for domestic growth and inflation
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
%
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
3.00%
The Malaysian economy is expected to grow within 4.3 - 4.8% in 2019,
downside risks prevail
29
6.0
5.1
4.4
5.7
4.7
4.8
4.3
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019f
Upside
Risks
Downside
Risks
• Weaker global growth
• Escalation of trade tensions
• Lower commodity production
• Domestic policy uncertainties
• Positive outcomes from trade
negotiations
• Lower-than-expected inflation
lifting private consumption activity
Annual GDP Growth
Annual Change (%)
Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
Additional Information
30
The Malaysian economy grew at faster pace in the second quarter
31
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties
component
Annual growth of GDP components
Add. Info
1
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2018)
2018 2019
2Q 1Q 2Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)94.1 5.5 4.4 4.6
Private Sector 74.2 7.3 5.9 6.2
Consumption 57.0 7.9 7.6 7.8
Investment 17.3 5.5 0.4 1.8
Public Sector 19.8 -1.6 -1.4 -2.8
Consumption 12.5 3.1 6.3 0.3
Investment 7.4 -9.9 -13.2 -9.0
Net exports of goods
and services7.0 -6.0 10.9 22.9
Exports 67.6 2.6 0.1 0.1
Imports 60.6 3.6 -1.4 -2.1
Change in stocks
(RM billion)-1.1 -2.2 -5.1 -4.6
Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9
Real GDP (q-o-q growth,
seasonally adjusted)- 0.6 1.1 1.0
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Share1, %
(2018)
2018 2019
2Q 1Q 2Q
Services 56.7 6.5 6.4 6.1
Manufacturing 22.4 4.9 4.2 4.3
Mining and
Quarrying7.6 -3.4 -2.1 2.9
Agriculture 7.3 -1.7 5.6 4.2
Construction 4.9 4.8 0.3 0.5
Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9
32
Note: Numbers do not add up due to rounding
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth by components
Add. Info
2The Malaysian economy grew at faster pace in the second quarter
Real GDP
(Contribution, ppt)
Share, %
(2018)
2018 2019
2Q 1Q 2Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)94.1 5.2 4.1 4.3
Private Sector 74.2 5.5 4.4 4.8
Consumption 57.0 4.4 4.3 4.4
Investment 17.3 1.1 0.1 0.4
Public Sector 19.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5
Consumption 12.5 0.4 0.7 0.0
Investment 7.4 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5
Net exports of goods
and services7.0 -0.4 0.9 1.4
Exports 67.6 1.8 0.0 0.0
Imports 60.6 2.2 -0.9 -1.3
Change in stocks
(RM billion)-1.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7
Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9
Real GDP
(Contribution, ppt)
Share1, %
(2018)
2018 2019
2Q 1Q 2Q
Services 56.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
Manufacturing 22.4 1.1 0.9 1.0
Mining and
Quarrying7.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.2
Agriculture 7.3 -0.1 0.4 0.3
Construction 4.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9
Import duties 1.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0
-0.2
0.2
-2.1
2.9
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
1Q 18 2Q 18 3Q 18 4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19
Positive turnaround in the mining sector
33
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Ppt contribution to headline GDP
…as natural gas production recovered from
last year’s supply disruption
The mining sector recorded the first positive growth
following six consecutive quarters of decline
Mining: Contribution to GDP and growth (% yoy)
0.3
-4.8
-8.4
0.4
-1.2
8.8
1Q 18 2Q 18 3Q 18 4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19
Natural Gas Industrial Production Index (% yoy)
%yoy
Mining
(% yoy, RHS)
Mining
(Cont. to GDP, LHS)
Add. Info
3
-39.8
-15.5-19.1
-28.6
-17.5
-38.1
-5.3 -6.7
-38.7
-8.1
-15.9
-8.5 -9.7
-29.6
-6.7
1.6
6.0 4.7 5.4 4.5
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
GFC(24 Apr 08 - 2 Mar 09)
European Debt Crisis(28 Jul - 4 Oct 11)
Taper Tantrum(22 May - 28 Aug 13)
Oil Price Decline(29 Aug 14 - 29 Sept 15)
Global Risk-off(April 18 - December 18)
Malaysia’s flexible exchange rate policy will continue to allow us
to withstand external shocks
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Non-Resident (NR) Portfolio Flows, Reserves, Ringgit Performance and GDP Growth During Outflow PeriodsUSD billion / %
Average GDP Growth (%)
Change
in MYR/USD
(%)
NR
Portfolio
Flows
(USD bn)
• While exchange rate adjustments are necessary, any excessive volatility will be managed
through targeted foreign exchange intervention.
• The Bank will continue its efforts in deepening the domestic financial markets, especially in
enhancing hedging flexibilities and instruments.
Change in
reserves
(USD bn)
Add. Info
4
34
a
Continued efforts to enhance access to financing, capacity building
and advisory
Financial guarantees by CGC
Assisted 452,000 SMEs obtain RM68 billion financing
Capacity to guarantee a further RM11.3 billion financing
Financing and debt resolution schemes e.g. Skim
Pembiayaan Mikro, Small Debt Resolution Scheme,
Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee
Ecosystem infrastructure e.g. Digital SME Financing
Referral Platform (imSME)
Kaunter Informasi PKS and dedicated hotline at
BNMLINK and BNM Offices nationwide and
dedicated SME contact points at banks
Lower lending rates under First-time Home
Buyers Scheme
Rumahku Financial Education
Skim Rumah Pertamaku and Skim
Perumahan Belia by Cagamas
Capacity to guarantee a further RM218 million
Purchase of home financing portfolio by
Cagamas from financing institutions to provide
liquidity to lenders to further finance home loans
Total Allocation under BNM’s Funds: RM10.1 billion, Available funds: RM4.4 billion
BNM’s Funds for SMEs BNM’s Funds for Affordable Homes
Allocation: RM9.1 billion Allocation: RM1 billion
Approved: RM31.5 billion* Approved: RM24.3 million
Available funds: RM3.4 billion Available funds: RM969.6 million
*Revolving fund
Flexibility for Rescheduling and Restructuring
(R&R) of financing
35
Add. Info
3
Add. Info
5