sifting our way to generational insights
TRANSCRIPT
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Generational ForesightSifting our way to generational insights
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What Makes People Tick?
Genetic differences
Spatial differences
Temporal differences
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Generations = Cohort Effects
Period EffectsChanges that affect all generations similarly
Life Cycle EffectsDifferences due to aging and life cycle
Cohort EffectsChanges that affect
generations differently
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Strauss & Howe’s Saeculum
Theory
Social and Economic wave theories• Kondratiev, Elliot, Kuznet waves• Carlota Perez’ techno-economic paradigms
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GENERATIONS ARE FORMED
BY EVENTS THAT HAPPEN
DURING THEIR FORMATIVE YEARS
Black swans can cause generational change
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10% 30% 50% 70%
THE EFFECTSCOME IN
AT LEAST FIFTY SHADES
OF GREY
But generational shifts are rarely absolute
Aren’t coefficients sexy enough?
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Good Generational Insights are Based on Quantitative Statistics
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How Else Do We
even try to
Genera(tiona)lize
Billions of People?
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Key:Representative, Longitudinal Data Sets
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The MTV/Chevrolet survey:
“75% of Millennials would rather give up social media
for a day than their car ,and 72% said they would rather
give up texting for a week than their car."
Be selective and ambiguous. Then spread the news!
How to win the internet
Give up my car forever
or for a day?
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Common survey problemsConfirmation bias: Getting results that support the stakeholder’s mission. Often results are ambiguous. Conveniently lends itself to “Internet truthiness”.
Biased generational narrative: Larger generations typically get more press.
Sampling bias: More research done on affluent members of all generations. Purchasing power and easier to reach.
Leading questions: “Would you rather save the world or make lots of money?” Better: Look for documented behavioral change.
Past focus: Fact tanks and market researchers are often too late to the game.
Psychometric assessment: How we perceive extreme values could vary with generation. E.g. younger gens favoring extreme values (vernacular “totally, “epic”+ grade inflation) Metrics like the Likert scale could create generationally skewed results.
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From Baby Center’s “Millennial Moms” survey (2014) N= 1633, Millennials (18-32): 804 , GenX (33-44): 829
Find Five Faults1 Millennials both more
involved and relaxed than X’ers?
2 Age-related perception of extreme values
3 Self-assessment ≠ objective - generationally skewed?
4 Absence of longitudinal data - moms in different phases of parenting
5 Wouldn’t it be nice to know the distributions within each category?
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Data-Mine User Generated Content?Facebook users’ word frequency based on age
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Sentiment Analyze Emoticons?
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
1
2
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4
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Or Big IoT Data?
But who owns it?
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IN THE ENDDATA WILL NEVER BE PERFECT,
WE CAN ONLY APPLY OUR B.S. FILTERS
“We're all just a bunch of sinners, but we do the best we can.”
Dolly Parton
Photo: Yahoo Images
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Thank You!
To learn more please visit
Afterthemillennials.com@aftermillennial512-568-4941