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    w w w

    Wwwwww.mhealthalliance.orgwww.mhealthalliance.orgww.w

    SizingtheBusinessPotentialofmHealthintheGlobalSouth:

    APracticalApproach

    ByVital

    Wave

    Consulting

    www.mHealthAllianc

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    mHealth in the Global South 2009

    Page 1

    TableofContents

    TableofContents......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

    Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2

    Part1 MarketSizingOverview................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

    Part2

    Definitions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................

    6

    eHealth,mHealth,andTelemedicine:DefinitionsandRelationships....................................................................................................................................... 6

    mHealthApplicationSegmentation.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7

    DevelopingCountriesandtheGlobalSouth............................................................................................................................................................................. 8

    Part3 MethodologiesOverview................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9

    Methodology1TopdownfromHealthBudgetswithNeedsbasedSegmentation..............................................................................................................9

    Methodology2TopdownfromHealthICToreHealthBudgets.......................................................................................................................................... 11

    Methodology3:BottomupfromCostandVolumeData....................................................................................................................................................... 12

    Part4 MethodologyComparison............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15

    Appendix:Available

    Data

    and

    Sources

    .......................................................................................................................................................................................

    16

    HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinSouthAfrica................................................................................................................................. 17

    HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinVietnam....................................................................................................................................... 19

    HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinTurkey..........................................................................................................................................19

    References.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21

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    Introduction

    AcrosstheGlobalSouth,lowerincomepopulationsneedqualityeducationandhealthcaretohelpmeetbasichumanneeds.Asthenumberofmobile

    servicesubscriberscontinuestoskyrocket,theinfrastructureandinstalledbasefordeliveringservicesviathemobilephonecontinuestoexpand.

    Meanwhile, thedwindlingnumberofnewsubscribersnecessitatesashiftoffocusbythemobilecommunicationsindustrytonewsourcesofrevenue.To

    justifytheinvestmentsneededforthedevelopmentandcommercializationofmobileservicessuchasmHealth(thedeliveryandmonitoringofhealthdata

    by

    mobile

    devices),

    it

    is

    necessary

    to

    gauge

    the

    market

    opportunity

    that

    exists

    for

    these

    services.

    Thisreportbuildsonapreviousreport,mHealthintheGlobalSouth:

    LandscapeAnalysis,preparedbyVitalWaveConsultingtoexaminethe

    currentmHealthlandscapeandprovideanoverviewofthescopeand

    impactofmobileinitiativesonhealthcareacrossdevelopingregions.The

    LandscapeAnalysisalsoanalyzescriticalsuccessfactorsformakingmHealth

    morewidelyavailablethroughsustainableimplementations.mHealth

    programsrequiretheparticipationofstakeholdersfromacrossinternational

    organizations,governments,NGOs,andprivatecompanies.

    Tostimulatecrosssectorparticipationandpartnership,itisnecessaryto

    sizeandlocatethemHealthmarketopportunitysothattheseorganizationscanprioritizetheirinvestments,alignmHealthinvestmentswithotherbusiness

    programs,and

    justify

    these

    expenditures

    to

    internal

    and

    external

    stakeholders.

    GiventhenascentcharacterofthemHealthindustry,competitiveindicatorsneededtodevelopamarketsizefromthebottomupareabsent,anddataon

    healthexpendituresfromthetopdownlackdetailformostdevelopingcountries.Therefore,determiningacrediblemarketsizerequiresapproachesthat

    maximizetheuseofimperfectsecondarydata,includingadditionalinputsfromexpertsinthehealthfieldinthedevelopingworld.Tomovetowardthe

    developmentofacrediblemarketsizing,thisreportidentifiestheavailablesecondarydataandprovidesthreepossibleapproachesforassessingthemarket

    size.

    Part1MarketSizingOverviewexaminestheneedforsizingthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsintheGlobalSouthandtheavailability of

    reliabledatatoexecutethesizing.Basedonanalysisofreadilyavailabledataonhealthcareexpendituresandhealthcareindicatorsinthreedeveloping

    countries(Turkey,Vietnam,andSouthAfrica),VitalWaveConsultingidentifiesthemissingpiecesneededtoassessthepotentialhealthcareexpenditure

    thatcouldbeshiftedtomHealth.

    Part2

    Definitions

    clarifies

    the

    main

    terms

    used

    in

    this

    paper.

    These

    definitions

    were

    originally

    proposed

    in

    Vital

    Wave

    Consultings

    report,

    mHealth

    in

    theGlobalSouth:LandscapeAnalysis,createdfortheUNFoundation.

    Part3MethodologyOverviewdescribesindetailthetopdownandbottomupapproachesforsizingthemHealthmarketsandthethreemethodologies

    proposedasthemostviableforthisexercise.AllproposedmethodologiesestimatethemarketopportunityforeachofthemHealthapplicationareasbut

    relyondifferentsetsofdata.

    Methodology1:Topdownfromhealthbudgetswithneedsbasedsegmentation

    Methodology2:TopdownfromhealthICToreHealthbudgets

    Methodology3:Bottomupfromhealthcareprogramcostandvolumepotentialdata

    Inadditiontodetailedstepbystepexplanations,eachofthemethodologiesisevaluatedforitsadvantagesanddisadvantages.

    Part4MethodologyComparisoncontraststhethreeproposedmethodologiesandcommentsonthequalityoftheirresults.

    TheAppendixprovidesanoverviewofthedataonhealthcareexpendituresandhealthcaresystemsofthethreecountriesresearchedindepthTurkey,

    SouthAfrica,andVietnamandevaluatesitsquality.

    ThisreportwasoriginallypreparedfortheMakingthe

    eHealthConnectionconferenceagatheringofmobile

    healthstakeholdersinBellagio,ItalyfromJuly31toAugust

    8,2008.ItwasrevisedfortheGlobalmHealthAllianceto

    formafoundationalbasefortheAlliancesthought

    leadershiplibrary.

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    ThisreportprovidesprofessionalsfromacrosssectorsandindustrieswithmethodologiesforsizingthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsinthe

    GlobalSouth.Asthesemethodologiesrelyonprimaryandsecondaryresearch,thisreportwaspreparedafterthoroughresearchforavailabledataand

    identifiesgapswheresubjectmatterexpertinputisneeded.

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    Part1 MarketSizingOverview

    Marketsizingisgenerallymeasuredattwolevels:totalmarketandaddressablemarket.Totalmarketistheleastgranularmeasureofmarketopportunity

    andusuallyrepresentsalargedemographicallyorcommerciallyidentifiablegroup.InthemHealthcontext,thetotalmarketcanbedefinedasgovernments

    andorganizationsaroundtheworldthatarecurrentlyprovidinghealthrelatedservicesandprograms.Insomecases,theenduser(patientormessage

    recipient)wouldalsopayformHealthservices,andmightbeconsideredpartofthetotalmarket.Thetotalmarketopportunityisthoughtofasthetotal

    amount

    of

    funds

    available

    from

    all

    customers

    for

    health

    care

    programs.

    Total

    market

    measures

    are

    normally

    a

    first

    step

    in

    market

    sizing,

    but

    they

    are

    rarely

    usedbyorganizationaldecisionmakersbecausethetotalmarketdoesnotreflectthenumberofcustomerswhoarelikelytobuy.Forthis,onecalculatesan

    addressablemarket.

    Theaddressablemarketisasubsetofthetotalmarket.Putsimply,itisthenumberofindividualcustomerswhoarerealisticallywillingandabletopurchase

    aproductorservice.Thewillingpartofthedefinitionconnotesthatthesolutionisappropriateforfulfillingacustomersneed,orsetofneeds.Theable

    partindicatesthatthecustomerhastheresourcesnecessarytoacquireandeffectivelyusethesolution.Inotherwords,theyhavetherequisitefinancial

    meanstopurchasethesolution,minimuminfrastructuretousethesolution,andtheycanacquirethesolutionthroughreasonablemeans.

    TomeasuretheaddressablemarketofmHealth,onehastounderstandthesubsetofwillingandablecustomers.Thewillingwillbebasedontheimpact

    ofmHealthprogramsandhowthatimpactcomparestootherpotentialinvestments.Thisisdifficulttomeasure,asmHealthiscurrentlyinitsinfancyand

    verylimiteddataisavailabletomeasureitsimpact.InvestorstodaymakejudgmentsaboutthevalueofmHealthbasedontheirownexperience.Thisisa

    validandnecessaryapproachforallnewindustriesortechnologyapplications,butitposeschallengestosizingthemarketonaglobalscale.

    MeasuringtheablepartofanaddressablemarketgroupisbasedondatathatindicatehowmanycustomershavethemeanstopurchasemHealth

    services.Thisisalsochallenging,asdatafordevelopingcountriesareoftenincomplete,unavailable,outdated,ortoolimitedtocapturethediversityand

    nuanceofthecountryenvironmentforaparticularsolution.CompoundingthatchallengeisthefactthatbotheHealthandmHealthareintheirinfancyin

    manydevelopingcountries,andestimatesofcurrentexpenditureonsuchsolutionsarenotsufficienttoextrapolatethemarketpotential.Inaddition,there

    arelimiteddataabouthealthspendingatthesubaccountleveltoillustratehowcountriesallocatebudgetsacrossspecificprograms.Ifavailable, suchdata

    couldbeusedasanindicatorofmHealthmarketpotential.

    Theexerciseofmarketsizingissimilarlycomplex,asthereisnoonesizefitsallapproach.Somemarketsizingapproachesfollowatopdown

    methodology,cuttingthemarketofalargerregionorindustryintosmallerpieces.Otherapproachesfollowabottomupmethodology,extrapolatinga

    marketsizeforthegeographyorindustrybasedoncountrylevelorcompetitivedatapoints.However,allapproachesrelyoncredibleandcurrentdata.

    ToinformanddevelopacrediblemethodologyformHealthmarketsizing,VitalWaveConsultingconductedathoroughsearchofavailabledatafromacross

    internationalorganizations,

    country

    health

    ministries,

    press

    and

    journal

    articles,

    and

    company

    and

    project

    papers

    and

    documents.

    The

    data

    search

    covered

    threedevelopingcountriesfromdifferentregionsoftheworld(SouthAfrica,Turkey,andVietnam)andincludeddocumentationofmHealthprojects

    implementedworldwide.Thefollowingisasummaryoftheavailableandunavailabledatafoundinthisinvestigation:

    Availabledata1

    Totalhealthexpenditure(totalandpercentfromprivate,public,andexternalsources)

    Healthworkforce(e.g.,thenumberandgeographicdistributionofnurses,physicians,dentists,pharmacists,beds,hospitals,healthcare

    posts,andhealthcarecenters)

    Healthserviceandcareindicators(e.g.,mortality,morbidity,disabilityadjustedlifeyearsperdisease,hospitaladmissions,HIVandTB

    prevalence)

    Drugexpenditure(totalandperdrugtype)

    1More information about the data found and the documented sources can be found in the Appendix.

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    Informationontheorganizationofthehealthcaresystemsaswellastrendsandthelatestdevelopmentsintheseparticularcountries

    Anecdotal,noncomprehensiveinformationaboutpotentialsavingsandimprovedoperationalefficiencyfromimplementedmHealth

    solutions,coveringseveralsolutionsacrossselectedcountries

    Limitedorunavailabledata

    Healthbudgets

    at

    the

    sub

    account

    level

    by

    function

    or

    activity

    (e.g.,

    ICT,

    preventive

    and

    primary

    health

    care

    service,

    health

    care

    education,

    andbehaviorchangecampaigns)

    Healthbudgetsandhealthcareindicatorsbrokendownbyarea(urbanversusrural)orbyareaunit(province)

    CrediblesystematicstudyofthepotentialimpactorcostsavingsfromimplementedmHealthsolutions

    Dataaboutthehealthcaresystemsandexpenditureinthecountriesresearchedisabundant,butveryhighlevel,inhibitingestimatesoftheportionof

    expendituresthatcouldbeshiftedtomHealth.Publiclyavailablesourcesofinformation(e.g.,theWorldHealthOrganizationandnationalministriesof

    health)andpaiddatabasesprovidereliableinformationonthosetopics,butmoreindepthknowledgefromsubjectmatterexpertsatthecountrylevelis

    needed.Forexample,inputfromthelatterwouldbecriticalwhenassessingthemHealthmarketopportunitiesforcountrieswithgreatdisparitiesin

    spendingandavailabilityofhealthcareserviceinurbanandruralareas.SuchdisparitiesdeterminedifferentneedsformHealthsolutionsandarenot

    alwaysreflectedinthereadilyavailabledata.

    AnotherimportantmissingpieceisacrediblestudyoftheimpactofmHealthsolutions.Informationaboutthebenefitscanbefoundinsomeproject

    reportsandonthewebsitesofmobilephoneoperatorsandcompaniesdevelopingsuchsolutions,butthisinformationdoesnotsubstantiateimpact

    beyondasinglesolutionorsmallgeographyortargetmarket,ifatall.Additionally,theimpactofaparticularsolutionwillnotnecessarilybethesamein

    twodifferentcountries.Forexample,theSATELLIFEprojectestimatesthatowningaPDAdevicesavesamedicalofficerinUganda9.37hoursperweekon

    average.iThesameproject,ifreplicatedinTurkey,couldhaveaverydifferentimpact.Untilcomprehensivestudiesaredone,onehastorelyonsubject

    matterexpertsorfieldinterviewstoestimatetheimpactofdifferentmHealthapplications.

    Below,VitalWaveConsultingproposesthreemethodologiesforassessingthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsintheGlobalSouthandits

    individualregionsandcountries.ThisreportdoesnotexhaustallpossiblemethodsforsizingthemHealthmarket,butinsteadprovidesanoverviewofthe

    threemethodologiesthatwouldgivethemostthoroughpictureofthemHealthinvestmentopportunities.

    Given

    the

    above

    mentioned

    data

    limitations

    and

    challenges,

    all

    three

    proposed

    methodologies

    rely,

    to

    different

    extents,

    on

    primary

    research

    in

    addition

    to

    secondaryresearch.Also,giventhenascentcharacterofthemHealthindustry,theproposedmethodologiesconcentrateonestimatingthefutureor

    potentialspendingonmHealth.

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    Part2 Definitions

    Thissectionincludesexplanationsoftheimportanttermsusedinthispaper:

    mHealthanditsdistinctionfromeHealthandtelemedicine

    mHealth

    application

    segmentation

    DevelopingcountriesandtheGlobalSouth

    ThesedefinitionswereoriginallyproposedinVitalWaveConsultingsreport,mHealthintheGlobalSouth:LandscapeAnalysis.

    eHealth,mHealth,andTelemedicine:DefinitionsandRelationships

    ManyanddiversedefinitionsofthetermseHealth,mHealthandtelemedicineexist.However,thereisgeneralagreementthateHealthrepresentsa

    supersetofmHealthandtelemedicine.eHealthistypicallyperceivedasencompassingtheuseofanyelectronictechnologiestoprovidehealthservices.Itis

    independentofpatient/providerproximityortheuseofspecifictechnology.

    Forthepurposesofthispaper,VitalWaveConsulting,relyingupontheinputofindustryexpertsandresearch,hasutilizedthefollowingdefinitions:

    eHealth:thedeliveryofhealthrelatedservicesviainformationandcommunicationtechnology.

    mHealth:asubsetofeHealthreferringtothedeliveryofhealthrelatedservicesviamobilecommunicationstechnology.

    Telemedicine:asubsetofeHealthreferringtohealthrelatedservicesdeliveredremotelywithclinicalparticipationviaelectronic

    communications.TelemedicinealsohasoverlapwithmHealthwhenmobilecommunicationstechnologiesareemployedinthedelivery

    process.(Telemedicineisoftenassociatedwiththeterm"telehealth,"whichmayencompassabroaderdefinitionofremotehealthcare

    thatdoesnotnecessarilyinvolveclinicalservices.)

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    Figure1presentsthetermsdescribedaboveinthecontextofthecorrespondinghealthcareapplicationsegments.Thesegmentsshownatthetopofthe

    tablereflectthegrowingsophisticationofapplicationandtechnologicalrequirementsastheymovefromeducationandpublicawareness, attheleft,to

    diagnosisandconsultationonthefarright.Itismobiletechnologysuniquecharacteristicsofportabilityandaccessthatprovidecompletelynewsolutions

    tohealthcareneedsacrossabroaderrangeofhealthcareapplications.

    Figure1:PositioningeHealth,mHealthandTelemedicine

    mHealthApplicationSegmentation

    BysurveyingabroadrangeofmHealthprograms,initiatives,andapplications,VitalWaveConsultingcreatedanapplicationsegmentationmodelbasedon

    targetedhealthcaregoals.Figure2liststhesesegments,withcorrespondingdescriptionsandexamplesofspecificmHealthprogramsintheGlobalSouth.

    Readingthelistfromtoptobottom,theapplicationsegmentshaveincreasingtechnologyrequirementsandcomplexityofimplementation.These

    applicationcharacteristicshaveaninverserelationshipwiththeirpotentialforscale.Therefore,educationandawarenessmHealthprogramshavethe

    simplesttechnologyrequirementsandimplementationmethodswiththehighestpotentialforscale.Analysis,diagnosisandconsultationapplicationsvia

    mobiletechnologyaremorecomplexanddifficulttoscale.

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    Figure2:mHealthApplications,Descriptions,andPotentialBenefitsandSavings

    Recognizingthedistinctionsbetweenthesesegmentsandunderstandingthecharacteristicsofrelatingtechnologiesisacriticalpartofbeingabletobuild

    applicationsthatpromisesustainabilityandscale.Forsomehealthcareapplications,mobiletechnologyprovidesameanstoaddressspecifictasksbetter

    andfaster.However,currentmobiletechnologyisnotidealforsomemHealthapplicationsthatrequiregreaterbandwidthorlowercosts.Mobile

    technologysappropriatenesstoanygivenapplicationdependsonabalanceoftechnicalperformance,cost,andefficacyconditionsthatwillcontinueto

    evolve.

    DevelopingCountries

    and

    the

    Global

    South

    Throughoutthispaper,thetermsdevelopingcountriesandGlobalSouthareusedinterchangeably.VitalWaveConsultingfollowsestablishedWorld

    BankeconomicbenchmarkstodefinedevelopingcountriesorGlobalSouthascountriesthathaveagrossnationalincome(GNI)of$10,725orlessper

    capita.Intheprivatesector,thetermemergingmarketsisfrequentlyusedinterchangeablywithdevelopingcountries.

    Withindevelopingcountries,VitalWaveConsultingdistinguishesbetweenthreesubgroupsaccordingtopopulationsizeandeconomicstatus.More

    informationaboutthesetermsandcategoriesmaybefoundintheInsightssectionoftheVitalWaveConsultingwebsite.

    Application Description Potential Benefits & Savings Examples

    Education &

    Awareness

    Primarily one-way communication programs to mobile subscribers via

    SMS/text messaging in support of public health, behavior change

    campaigns.

    Improved awareness

    Enhanced quality of care through education

    Saved time and travel cost from distant learning

    Decreased cost per impression

    Data, Health Record

    Access

    Applications designed to use mobile phones, PDAs, or laptops to enter

    and access patient data. Some projects may also be used by patients to

    access their own records.

    Improved data accuracy

    Saved office supplies Reduced time for collecting and transcribing data by

    medical personnel

    Increased productivity within health system

    Enhanced quality of care

    Monitoring/

    Medication

    Compliance

    One-way or two-way communication to patient to monitor health

    conditions, maintain care giver appointments, or ensure strict

    medication regimen adherence. Some applications may also include

    inpatient and outpatient monitoring sensors for monitoring of multipleconditions (such as diabetes, vital signs, or card iac.)

    Improved medication adherence and reduced DALYs,

    medication cost, general health care cost Improved service because of better monitoring

    Saved travel time (both doctors and patients)

    Reduced expense for hospital stays

    Saved time for doctors through access to automated

    medical history

    Saved resources from fewer missed appointments

    Disease/ Emergency

    Tracking

    Applications using mobile devices to send and receive data of disease

    incidence, outbreaks, geographic spread of public health emergencies,

    often in association with GPS systems and backend applications for

    visualization.

    Enhanced disease surveillance and control

    Health/

    Administrative

    Systems

    Applications developed for back office or central health care IT

    systems allowing for access by and integration with mHealth

    application. Such applications often tie in to regional, national, or

    global systems.

    Reduced IT/MIS cost

    Reduced cost from better IT integration, reduced

    compatibility problems, ease of upgrades

    Analysis, Diagnosis,

    and Consultation

    Applications developed to provide support for diagnostic and treatment

    activities of remote care givers through internet access to medical

    information data bases or to medical staff.

    Increased productivity within health system

    Enhanced quality of care

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    Market Opportunity(by application)

    Total HealthExpenditure

    % of Health

    Expenditures forApplication Area

    % of Health ApplicationSpending that can be

    converted to mHealth= x x

    Part3 MethodologiesOverview

    BasedonavailableinformationandextensiveresearchonhealthcaremarketsindevelopingcountriesperformedbyVitalWaveConsulting,bothtopdown

    andbottomupapproachesarefeasibleforestimatingthemarketsizeformHealthsolutions.Threepossiblemethodologiesaredescribedindetailbelow.

    Thetwotopdownapproachmethodologies(Methodology1andMethodology2)startfromthetotalhealthcareorHealthICT/eHealthexpendituresper

    country

    and

    estimate

    the

    portion

    of

    this

    expenditure

    that

    can

    be

    shifted

    to

    mHealth

    solutions.

    The

    bottom

    up

    approach

    (Methodology

    3)

    starts

    with

    the

    differentmHealthapplicationareasidentifiedinFigure2andestimatesthepotentialsavingsfromtheirimplementation.Allproposedmethodologies

    estimatethemarketopportunityforeachmHealthapplication.Theaddressablemarketsize,inthiscase,isthesumofthemarketsizesperapplication.

    Choosingthemostappropriatemethodologydependsonpreferencesforspecificapproaches,geographicareasofinterest,time,andbudget.

    Methodology1TopdownfromHealthBudgetswithNeedsbasedSegmentation

    Methodology1estimatesthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsasaportionoftotalhealthexpenditureforeachapplicationarea.Thetotalmarket

    sizeisequaltothesizeofallmarketsperapplicationcombined.

    Step1:DetermineTotalHealthExpenditure

    Collectinformationabouttotalhealthexpenditureineachcountry,accessibleviapublicsourcesofinformation,suchastheWorldHealthOrganization.

    Step2:EstablishGeographic SegmentsBasedonHealthNeed

    SegmentthedevelopingcountriesaccordingtotheirneedsforthesixmHealthapplicationareasusingavailablesecondarydata(e.g.,disabilityadjustedlife

    years,healthexpenditurespercapita,landarea,ruralandurbanpopulations,andnumberofdoctorsandhospitals).Determinecountrysegmentswith

    similarneedlevels(low,mediumandhigh)foreachapplication.Forinstance,countrieswithhighinstancesofinfectiousdiseasesandstressedhealth

    systeminfrastructure(e.g.,nationsinsubSaharanAfrica)mayhavegreaterneedsforeducationandawarenessandmonitoring/medicationcompliance

    applicationsthancountrieswithalowerincidenceofinfectiousdiseasesandmoreadvancedhealthsystems(e.g.,nationsinEasternEurope).

    Therequireddatacanbeobtainedfrompublicsourcesofinformation,suchasWHO,theUnitedNations,andtheWorldBank.Morespecificinformation

    canbefoundinpaiddatabasessuchasBusinessMonitorInternational.Availabledatawillbevalidatedthroughandaugmentedbyexpertopinion.Asample

    needsbasedsegmentationisshowninFigure3.

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    Figure3:NeedsbasedSegmentation(sampleoutput).Tableforillustrativepurposesonly.

    Step3:DetermineTotalHealthExpenditureperDetermineTotalHealthExpenditureperApplicationArea(asPercentageofTotalHealthExpenditure)

    UsinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrossthesixmHealthapplicationareascombinedwithanyanecdotaldatafoundforrepresentativecountries

    withinthesegmenttovalidatetheexpertsopinions,theportionoftotalhealthspendingallocatedtoeachapplicationareaforeachsegmentcanbe

    estimated.ThisprocessisdemonstratedinFigure4.

    Step4:ConvertTotalHealthExpenditureperApplicationAreatomHealthspecificExpenditures

    Usinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrosstheapplications,onecandeterminetheportionoftotalhealthspendingbyapplicationthatcouldbe

    transferredtomHealthinthedifferentgeographicsegments.Thisstepincorporatesacountrysneedandthepotentialimpactofaparticularsolution,as

    wellasthecosttradeoffbetweenthemHealthapplicationandtraditionalservices.Forinstance,mHealtheducationandawarenesscampaignsinsub

    SaharanAfricacouldcommandahigherpercentoftheoverallbudgetiftheydirectlyreplaceradio,print,andtelevisioncampaigns.Thepenetrationof

    mobileservicesacrossthepopulationandcoverageofdifferentgeographicareaswouldalsofigureintothiscalculation,takingintoconsiderationthe

    increasedimpactaprogramcouldhavewithexpandedmobilecoverage.Asamplecalculationofthepotentialimpactinanapplicationareaforvarying

    segments(suchascountriesorregions)isshowninFigure5.

    Figure5:PortionofHealthApplicationAreaSpendingthatisConvertibletomHealthTableforillustrativepurposesonly.

    Step5:CalculatetheMarketOpportunity

    mHealth Application Area Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3

    Education & Awareness

    Data Entry, Health Records Access

    Monitoring/ Medication Compliance

    Disease/ Emergency tracking

    Health/ Administrative System

    Analysis, Diagnosis, and Consultation

    High Need Medium Need Low Need

    mHealth Application Area Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3

    Education & Awareness 25% 10% 5%

    Data Entry, Health Records Access 10% 15% 18%

    Monitoring/ Medication Compliance 13% 7% 7%

    Disease/ Emergency tracking 13% 7% 5%

    Health/ Administrative System 5% 5% 8%

    Analysis, Diagnosis, and Consultation 3% 3% 5%

    High Need Medium Need Low Need

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    Total Health ICT/eHealthExpenditure

    % of Health Application Spendingthat can be converted to mHealth

    Market Opportunity(by application) = x

    Giventheoutcomesfromtheprevioussteps,onecancalculatethemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsforeachoftheapplicationareaspercountry

    andapplication.ThetotalmarketsizeformHealthinagivencountrywillbethesumoftheseapplicationspecificmarkets.

    AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofMethodology1

    Methodology2TopdownfromHealthICToreHealthBudgets

    SimilartoMethodology1,Methodology2estimatesthemarketopportunityperapplicationasaportionofexistingtechnologyexpenditures.

    Step1:TotalHealthICToreHealthExpenditure

    CollectallavailabledataforhealthICTandeHealthexpendituresforapproximately40to50countries.Suchdataisavailablethroughpublishedreports

    (suchasthosebyFrostandSullivan),pressreports,governmentpapersorspeeches,andstudiesbyacademicsandtheinternationaldevelopment

    community.TotalspendingforICTinhealthcareworldwideisestimatedat34%oftotalhealthcarespending.However,fortheGlobalSouth,this

    percentagewillbelower.

    Step2:EstablishGeographic SegmentsBasedonHealthCareInfrastructure

    Itispossibletosegmentcountriesbasedonhealthsysteminfrastructureandcoverageprofiles.However,comprehensiveresearchisneededforthis

    segmentationbecausecountriesvarygreatly,notonlyinthelevelofdevelopmentoftheirhealthsysteminfrastructure,butalsointheirbudgetsources.

    Forinstance,somecountriesallocatehigherportionsofthegovernmentbudgetandgrossdomesticproducttohealththanothers,andsomecountriesrely

    muchmoreheavilyonprivateentitiesforhealthcareprovision.Inaddition,countrieshavevaryinglevelsofwirelessinfrastructureandmobilecapacityfor

    mHealthservices.Countrieswithlimitedwirelessinfrastructureandlargepopulations(suchasEthiopiaandMyanmar)couldpresentalongtermmarket

    opportunitybut

    require

    additional

    reforms

    before

    widespread

    mHealth

    services

    can

    be

    offered.

    Step3:ConvertHealthICToreHealthExpendituretomHealthspecificExpenditure

    Advantages of Methodology 1 Disadvantages of Methodology 1

    Incorporates an evaluation of needs intothe analysis

    Spending data are directional becausethey are based on expert opinion

    Captures market opportunities beyond

    current/potential IT expenditure

    Requires primary research resources

    (subject matter experts) that areknowledgeable of health expenditures by

    application area and mHealth potential

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    Average spending per person formHealth-related applications

    Volume potential perapplication

    Market Opportunity(by application)

    = x

    UsinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrossthesixmHealthapplicationareasandanyavailableanecdotalevidence,identifytheportionoftotalhealth

    ICTandeHealthspendingthatcanbeconvertedtomHealthspendingacrossapplicationareasandsegments.CountriesthatareinvestinginICTforhealth

    andhavestrongmobilecoveragecouldbebettercandidatestoconvertbudgetallocationstomHealthintheshortterm.

    Step4:CalculateMarketOpportunity

    Onecancalculatethemarketopportunityperapplicationareaandpercountryforthosewherereliabledataareavailable.Thefinalstepistoextrapolate

    thisprocess

    to

    other

    countries

    using

    the

    same

    coefficients

    for

    countries

    in

    the

    same

    geographic

    segment.

    AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofMethodology2

    Methodology3:BottomupfromCostandVolumeData

    Methodology3followsabottomupapproachtocalculatethemarketopportunityperapplicationareaastheproductofaveragespendingperpersonand

    thevolumepotentialofanapplication.

    Step1:EstablishGeographicSegmentsBasedonHealthNeed

    AsinMethodology1,aneedsbasedsegmentationisrequired.OnecansegmentthedevelopingcountriesaccordingtotheirneedsforthesixmHealth

    applicationareasusingavailablesecondarydata(suchasdisabilityadjustedlifeyears,healthexpenditurespercapita,landarea,ruralandurban

    populations,andthenumberofdoctorsandhospitals).Then,determinecountrysegmentswithsimilarneedpatterns(low,mediumandhigh)foreach

    application.

    Further,onecanselect10to14representativecountriesacrossthesegmentsfordeeperinvestigation.Later,thefactorscalculatedforthesecountriescan

    beappliedtoallcountriesintheparticularsegment.IllustrativeoutputoftheneedbasedsegmentationisshowninFigure3,above.

    Step2:IdentifyPotentialCostSavingsfrommHealthApplicationsperArea

    UsinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrossthesixmHealthapplicationareasandanyapplicableanecdotaldatafromsecondarysources,onecan

    expand,refineandensuretheaccuracyandcomprehensivenessofthelistofpotentialbenefitsandsavingsoutlinedinFigure2.

    Step3:ConductCountryResearch

    Advantages of Methodology 1 Disadvantages of Methodology 1

    Incorporates an evaluation of needs into

    the analysis

    Spending data are directional because

    they are based on expert opinion

    Captures market opportunities beyondcurrent/potential IT expenditure

    Requires primary research resources(subject matter experts) that are

    knowledgeable of health expenditures by

    application area and mHealth potential

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    Usingsecondarydatafrom10to14countriesselectedfromacrossthesegments,aswellasexpertopinion,onecandeviseanaveragecostperunitforeach

    oftheapplicationareas(Figure6)ineachgeographicsegment.Additionally,onecancreatecoefficientstoadjustthoseaveragecostsfordifferentsegments

    containingcountrieswithvaryingincomelevelsandhealthinfrastructure.

    Forinstance,SouthAfricaandLesothocouldbeinthesamegeographicsegmentaccordingtotheirhealthneeds,butcostsforconductingepidemiological

    surveysinSouthAfrica,withitslargerrurallandarea,maybemoreexpensiveperfieldworkerthaninLesothobecauseoftheneedforadditionaltravel.

    Figure6:

    mHealth

    Per

    capita

    Unit

    Cost

    and

    Volume

    Potential

    by

    Segment

    Table

    for

    illustrative

    purposes

    only.

    Final

    variables

    to

    be

    adjusted

    based

    on

    precisedataavailability.

    Next,onecanidentifythevolumepotentialbyapplicationandbysegment(suchasthenumberoffieldsurveyorsneededperpopulationof1,000,the

    numberofrecipientsofbehaviorchangecampaignsperpopulationof1,000,andthenumberofimpressionsneededtoinvokebehaviorchangeineach

    person). Thestepsabovewilldemandbothsecondaryresearchandexpertopinion.

    Step4:CalculatetheMarketPotential

    Withthefindingsgeneratedfromstepsdescribedabove,onecancalculatethesumofthemarketopportunityperapplicationarea.Thebenefitofthis

    approachisthatitismorecomprehensiveacrossallmHealthsavingsareasbeyondtechnology.However,italsorequiresveryknowledgeableprimary

    sourcesandpresentsthemostchallengingdatarequirementsofthethreeapproaches.

    High Need Medium Need Low Need

    mHealth Per-capita Unit Cost Base Multiplied By Volume Potential Base

    Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3

    Education &Awareness

    Cost per

    impression;

    Costs per

    individual

    behaviorchange

    Cost per

    impression;

    Costs per

    individual

    behaviorchange

    Cost per

    impression;

    Costs per

    individual

    behaviorchange

    Number of

    impressions

    (per 100)

    Number of

    impressions

    (per 100)

    Cost per

    impression;

    Costs per

    individual

    behaviorchange

    Data Entry, Health

    Records AccessCosts per

    record accessCosts per

    record accessCosts per

    record access

    Volume of

    record access

    transactions(per 100)

    Volume of

    record access

    transactions(per 100)

    Number of

    impressions(per 100)

    Monitoring/

    Medication

    Compliance

    Cost per

    patient

    Cost per

    patient

    Cost per

    patient

    x

    Number of

    patients to be

    monitored (per100)

    Number of

    patients to be

    monitored (per100)

    Volume of

    record access

    transactions(per 100)

    Disease/ Emergencytracking

    Cost per survey Cost per survey Cost per surveyNumber of

    surveys (per100)

    Number of

    surveys (per100)

    Number of

    patients to be

    monitored (per

    100)

    Health/

    AdministrativeSystem

    Cost per 100population

    Cost per 100population

    Cost per 100population

    Population

    served (per

    100)

    Population

    served (per

    100)

    Number of

    surveys (per

    100)

    Analysis, Diagnosis,

    & ConsultationCost per

    interactionCost per

    interactionCost per

    interaction

    Number of

    interactions(per 100)

    Number of

    interactions(per 100)

    Population

    served (per100)

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    Advantagesand

    Disadvantages

    of

    Methodology

    3

    Average spending per person for

    mHealth-related applications

    Volume potential per

    application

    Market Opportunity

    (by application)= x

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    Part4 MethodologyComparison

    EachofthethreemethodologiespresentedinthispaperprovidesarealisticandcredibleapproachforestimatingthemarketopportunityformHealth

    solutionsintheGlobalSouth.Allofthemincludeprimaryresearchandinputfromsubjectmatterexpertsinthedatagatheringphase.Foreffective

    executionandresultsthataccuratelygaugethemarketopportunity,ateamofresearchersandanalystsworkingwithateamofexpertsoverseveral

    monthswillbeneeded.

    Eachmethodology,however,differsinitsapproachtowardtheexistingandreadilyavailabledata,asillustratedinFigure7.

    Figure7:MethodologiesComparison

    Methodology3withitsbottomupapproachprovidesthebestcombinationofcomprehensiveanddefinitiveresults.Thismethodologyis,however,the

    mosttime andlaborconsumingofthethree.Ingeneral,bottomupapproachesaretimeandresourceintensiveandthereforechallengingtoimplement

    globally.Butinamanageable setofcountries,itisacompellingapproach.

    Methodology1ismoredirectionalthandefinitiveinitsresultswhencomparedtoMethodology3.Itreliesonsubjectexpertopinionsratherthanondata

    fromglobalfieldsurveys,andislesstime andcostintensivetoimplement.

    Methodology2istheleasttimeandlaborconsumingamongallthreeapproaches.Theresultswillbemoredirectionalthanwiththeothermethodologies.

    ThisapproachestimatestheportionofHealthICTandeHealthbudgetsthatcouldbeshiftedtowardmHealthsolutionsandomitstheotherareaswhere

    mHealthwillhaveimpact(e.g.,augmentingorreplacingtraditionalmediainawarenessandbehaviorchangecampaigns).Thisapproachisbestusedin

    caseswithlimitedbudgetsandtheneedforaglobalestimateofthemarketsize.

    AllthreeproposedmethodologiesanalyzeeithercurrentexpendituresorthosethatcouldbeavailabletomHealthsolutionsthroughshiftingbudgetline

    items(justifiedbycostsavingsresultingfrommHealthservices).TwootherimportantaspectsofimplementingmHealthsolutionsaretheimproved

    efficiencyandimprovedservicethataremoredifficulttomeasureortoexpressinmonetaryterms.Undoubtedly,measuringtheoutcomesshouldbepart

    ofthemarketsizingaswell,butcredibleinformationforthisisnotyetavailable.Itisalsoimportanttonotethatameasurement oftheresultsofmHealth

    solutionswill

    draw

    additional

    investments

    in

    this

    field.

    Directional

    Comprehensive

    Narrow

    Methodology1

    Definitive

    Methodology2

    Methodology3

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    Appendix:AvailableDataandSources

    Theinformationbelowsummarizesavailabledata,illustratingthelevelofdetailandprovidingguidelinesforfurtherresearch.Itisnotacomprehensive

    overviewoftherespectivehealthcaremarkets.

    WorldHealthOrganization StatisticalInformationSystem

    ThemostimportantsourceofhighlevelstatisticaldataonhealthcarepercountryisthedatabaseoftheWorldHealthOrganization,theWHOStatistical

    InformationSystem(WHOSIS).WHOSIScontainshistoricalvaluesformanyindicators,allowingtheidentificationoftrendsandforecasting.Thedatabase

    containsdatafor164indicatorsinthefollowingsixcategories:

    Demographicandsocioeconomicstatistics

    Healthservicecoverage

    Healthsystemsresources

    Inequitiesinhealthcareandhealthoutcome

    Mortalityand

    burden

    of

    disease

    Riskfactors

    Fordevelopingcountries,however,andforthecountriessurveyedbyVitalWaveConsultinginparticular,dataformanyofthe164WHOSISindicatorsare

    notavailable.Themostrelevantandavailabledatacoverthefollowingindicators:

    Totalhealthcareexpenditureinabsolutevalue,asapercentageofGDP,percapita,inrealdollars,internationaldollars,andnational

    currencyunits.

    Breakdownofthetotalhealthcareexpenditureinto:

    Privatespendingsuchasoutofpocketpayment,prepaidandriskpoolingplans,andNGOs

    PublicspendingsuchasMinistryofHealth,socialsecurityfunds,andothergovernmentspending

    Externalsourcessuchasinternationaldonorprograms.

    Healthworkforceandresources(nurses,midwives,physicians,dentists,pharmacists,hospitals,hospitalbeds)inabsolutevalueandpera

    populationof1,000.

    SomeoftheWHOSISindicatorsthatwouldbehelpfulinthemarketassessmentandforwhichdatafortheresearchedcountriesarenotavailableare:

    Expenditureoninpatientcurativecare

    Expenditureonpreventionandpublichealthservices

    Expenditureonhospitals

    Expenditureonhumanhealthresources

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    AlthoughtheWHOSISdatabaseisprobablythebestsourceforhighlevelhealthcaredatapercountry,somenationalgovernmentsprovidedmuchmore

    detailedanduptodatedataonhealthcareintheircountry.

    HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinSouthAfrica

    SouthAfrica,forexample,hasawelldocumentedhealthcaresystemanddatabasewithcomprehensivestatisticalinformationoncountryandprovince

    levels.TheNationalDepartment ofHealth(www.doh.gov.za)issuesaDepartmentofHealthAnnualReportgivingdetailsonlegislativechanges,

    departmentalrevenueandexpenditure,strategichealthprograms,andprogressmadetowardachievingestablishedgoals.TheroleoftheNational

    Department ofHealthismainlystrategicanditsparticipationinSouthAfricashealthcareexpenditureislessthan1percent.

    MoredetaileddataabouthealthcarethanthatfoundthroughWHOSISandtheNationalDepartment ofHealthareavailableontheProvincialDepartments

    ofHealthwebsites(http://www.doh.gov.za/links/index.html).Thesedepartmentsareresponsiblefortheallocationofmorethan95percentofgovernment

    healthspending.Eachofthedepartmentsissuesanannualreportwithdetailsonitsfinancialspending,humanresources,andthefollowingprograms:

    Program1:HealthAdministration

    Program2:DistrictHealthServices

    Program3:EmergencyMedicalServices

    Program4:ProvincialHospitalServices

    Program5:HealthSciencesandTraining

    Program6:HealthCareSupport

    Program7:HealthFacilitiesManagement

    Besidespurelyquantitativeinformationonagreatnumberofhealthindicators,thesereportsincludethequalitativeinformationneededforabetter

    understandingofthelocalhealthcaresystemandanassessmentofthepotentialbenefitsofmHealthsolutionsanoverviewofthecurrentsituation,

    discussionsofproblems(suchasdisparitiesindifferentregionswithinaprovince)andprojectionsforthefuture.Thelevelofdetailsurpassesthedetailsin

    apubliccompanysannualreport.

    WhiletheNationalandProvincialDepartmentsofHealthsdocumentationcontaindatamainlyaboutpublichealthexpenditureandgovernmentprograms,

    theHealthSystemTrust(www.hst.org.za)andStatisticsSouthAfrica(www.statssa.gov.za)provideinformationonSouthAfricashealthcareasawhole.

    HealthSystemTrustsannualreportSouthAfricanHealthReview2007(http://www.hst.org.za/publications/711)focusesonbroadareaswithrespectto

    theroleoftheprivatehealthsector.Theseareasincludeoversight,poolingofresources,purchasingofhealthcare,deliveryofhealthcareservicesand

    healthrelatedindicators.Criticalissuescoveredinthe2007reviewinclude:

    Assessmentoftheroleofthegovernmentintheoveralltransformationprocessofthehealthsector.

    Policyandlegislativereviewontheprovisionandfundingofprivatehealthcare.

    Reviewandanalysisofhealthcarefinancingandexpenditureaswellasrecenttrendsinspendinginthepublicandprivatehealthsectors.

    Overviewofhealthinformationsystemsandtheroleplayedbyintermediariesinfacilitatingtheflowofpatientinformation.

    AnalysisofthehealthstatusoftheSouthAfricanworkforceandhealthcareprovisionintheworkplace.

    Analysisanddevelopmentsinthemarketandregulatoryenvironmentimpactingmedicinepricingandaccesstomedicines.

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    Reviewoftheimpactofpublicprivatepartnershipsonaccesstohealthcareandhealthoutcomes.

    Analysisoftheprivatehospitalindustrywithspecificfocusonstructure,ownership,andmarketsharepergeographicalregionandthe

    natureofrelationshipsbetweenprivatehospitalsandproviders.

    AnalysisoftheprivatesectorsresponseforHIV/AIDS,sexuallytransmittedinfections,andtuberculosis.

    Inbrief,

    the

    report

    summarizes

    the

    most

    relevant

    data

    from

    the

    sources

    described

    above,

    and

    compares

    the

    health

    care

    systems

    across

    provinces

    on

    both

    thepublicandprivatelevel.SeeReferencesforsourcedata.

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    HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinVietnam

    Whiledetaileddataonhealthcareexpenditure,allocation,andindicatorsforSouthAfricaareabundant,readilyavailableandeasilyaccessiblethrough

    governmentagenciesorpublicinstitutionswebsites,thisisnotthecaseformanyotherdevelopingcountries,suchasVietnam.ForVietnam,WHOSIS

    provestobethebestsourceforquantitativedata,eventhoughitgivesdatathataretoohighleveltobedirectlyusefulfordetermininghowmoniesare

    spent.

    TheEnglish

    version

    of

    the

    Vietnamese

    Ministry

    of

    Healths

    website

    (www.moh.gov.vn)

    contains

    little

    qualitative

    or

    quantitative

    information,

    while

    the

    HealthPolicyandStrategyInstitute(www.hspi.org.vn)referstodocumentspreparedbytheUnitedNationsandWHO.TheVietnameseversionofthe

    MinistryofHealthswebsitecontainssomequantitativedata,butinmuchlessdetailthanthedataavailableintheWHOStatisticalInformationSystem.

    UptodatequantitativedataonhealthcareindicatorsareavailableonthewebsiteoftheGeneralStatisticsOfficeofVietnam(www.gso.gov.vn).However,

    theindicatorscoveredlargelyoverlapwiththoseintheWHOSISandgivelittlenewinformation.Additionally,mostofthedataexcludetherapidlygrowing

    privatesectorandaresummarizedatthecountrylevel.

    TwoadditionalfactsmakefindingindepthinformationinVietnamdifficult:

    Vietnams64provinceshavesignificantbudgetandinvestmentautonomy.

    Privateoutofpocketspendingrepresentsasmuchas80percentoftotalspendingonhealthcareinVietnam.

    Inbrief,asystematicstudyonthehealthcareexpenditureinVietnamatalevelofdetailthatwouldaddtothemarketassessmenteffortsisnotavailable.

    Mostoftheexternaldatasources(suchastheUnitedNations,UnitedNationsPopulationFund,WHO,WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFund,andthe

    AsiaPacificActionAllianceonHumanResourcesforHealth)usethequantitativedataalreadyavailable.Thesesources,however,containqualitative

    descriptionsoftheorganizationofthehealthcaresysteminVietnam,whichprovidesusefulbackground.SeeReferencesforsourcedata.

    HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinTurkey

    WhileSouthAfricaandVietnamrepresenttheextremesofreadilyavailableandeasilyaccessiblehealthdata,Turkeyprovidesasatisfactory,ifnot

    thorough,quantityofdata.InformationabouttheTurkishhealthcaresystemisnotasstructuredascorrespondinginformationforSouthAfrica,butitisstill

    abundantandcontainsusefuldetails.

    RelevantandinformativedocumentationaboutthehealthcaresysteminTurkeyisavailableontheMinistryofHealthwebsite(www.saglik.gov.tr).The

    TurkeyHealthTransformationProgramdocumentdescribesthelatestdevelopments,ongoingprojectsandfuturegovernmentplanstoaddresstopics

    suchashealthcareorganizations,currentandfutureexpenditures,hospitalsandhospitalservices,humanresourcesavailabilityandtrainingand

    geographicaldisparities.TurkeysprofileontheWHOwebsite(www.euro.who.int/document/e79838.pdf)addstothesetopics,butdatainthedocument

    areoutdated.

    TurkeysprofileontheOECDwebsite(www.oecd.org/turkey)providesbasichealthcareindicatorsforTurkeyincomparisontoothermembers.OECDalso

    breaksdowndetailsofhealthcareexpenditures(http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/7/49/33696739.pdf)bymainfunction,financingagentandhealthcare

    provider.

    Someofthequantitativedatainthisdocumentisoutdated,butitstillgivesasolidstartingpointforfurtherexplorationofhealthcareexpendituresin

    Turkey.

    Inbrief,

    the

    public

    sources

    of

    information

    provide

    good

    documentation

    for

    one

    to

    get

    acquainted

    with

    the

    health

    care

    system

    and

    expenditure

    on

    acountry

    level.However,quantitativedataandprofilesofthe81provinces,oratleasttheregionswithgreatdisparitiesinhealthcarespendingandservices,will

    requireinputfromasubjectmatterexpert.SeeReferencesforsourcedata.

    PaidDatabasesforHealthcareData

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    Paiddatabases(e.g.,ISIEmergingMarketsandBusinessMonitorInternational)mainlyusehealthcareexpendituredataandcountryprofilesfromWHO,

    therespectivehealthministrywebsitesandstatisticsofficesandextrapolatethem.However,furtherbreakdownofhealthcareexpendituresatasub

    accountlevelisusuallymissing.

    AnimportantdatapointaboutdisabilityadjustedlifeyearsperdiseasecanbefoundintheBusinessMonitorInternationaldatabases.Asdescribedin

    Methodology1above,thisinformationisusefulinsegmentationofthecountriesintheGlobalSouth.

    Dataon

    the

    Impact

    from

    mHealth

    Solutions

    AcrediblestudyoftheimpactofmHealthsolutionsisnotavailable,andimpactisakeyindicatorindeterminingthemarketthatiswillingtopurchase.

    Informationaboutthebenefitscanbefoundinsomeprojectpapersandonsomewebsitesofmobilephoneoperatorsandcompaniesdevelopingsuch

    solutions,butthisinformationisanecdotalratherthancomprehensive.Subjectmatterexpertscanhelpaugmenttheanecdotaldatatoalevelthatis

    quantifiableandcredibleforthemarketsizingmodel.However,thiswouldnotbearigorousimpactstudy,butanestimationbasedonexpertopinion

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    References

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    SouthAfricanHealthReview,2007.(2007).Durban:HealthSystemsTrust.Retrievedon18May2008from:http://www.hst.org.za/publications/711

    Vietnamhealthexpenditureandhealthcareserviceindicators:

    AdamsSJ.VietnamsHealthCareSystem:AMacroeconomicPerspective,InternationalMonetaryFund.2005.Retrievedon19May2008from:

    http://imf.org/external/country/VNM/rr/sp/012105.pdf

    HuongP,HueV.VietnamHITCaseStudy.CenterforHealthandAgingHealthInformationTechnologyandPolicyLab,TheNationalBureauofAsianResearch.2007.RetrievedonMay18,2008from:http://pacifichealthsummit.org/downloads/HITCaseStudies/Economy/VietnamHIT.pdf

    NguyenT,LofgrenC,NguyenT,JanlertU,LindholmL.Householdoutofpocketpaymentsforillness:EvidencefromVietnam.BMCPublicHealth.

    2006;vol.6:p.283.RetrievedonMay12,2008fromhttp://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=1660562

    WHOCountryCooperationStrategy,Vietnam,20032006.WorldHealthOrganization,VienamCountryOffice.WorldHealthOrganization;2007.RetrievedonJune1,2008fromwww.un.org.vn/who/docs/whoccs.pdf

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    Mandil,S.TurkeyeHealthStrategyTowardsthestartofImplementation.RepublicofTurkey,MinistryofHealth.2007.Retrievedon10May2008

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