sizing business potential
TRANSCRIPT
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w w w
Wwwwww.mhealthalliance.orgwww.mhealthalliance.orgww.w
SizingtheBusinessPotentialofmHealthintheGlobalSouth:
APracticalApproach
ByVital
Wave
Consulting
www.mHealthAllianc
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Page 1
TableofContents
TableofContents......................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2
Part1 MarketSizingOverview................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4
Part2
Definitions........................................................................................................................................................................................................................
6
eHealth,mHealth,andTelemedicine:DefinitionsandRelationships....................................................................................................................................... 6
mHealthApplicationSegmentation.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 7
DevelopingCountriesandtheGlobalSouth............................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Part3 MethodologiesOverview................................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Methodology1TopdownfromHealthBudgetswithNeedsbasedSegmentation..............................................................................................................9
Methodology2TopdownfromHealthICToreHealthBudgets.......................................................................................................................................... 11
Methodology3:BottomupfromCostandVolumeData....................................................................................................................................................... 12
Part4 MethodologyComparison............................................................................................................................................................................................. 15
Appendix:Available
Data
and
Sources
.......................................................................................................................................................................................
16
HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinSouthAfrica................................................................................................................................. 17
HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinVietnam....................................................................................................................................... 19
HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinTurkey..........................................................................................................................................19
References.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21
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Introduction
AcrosstheGlobalSouth,lowerincomepopulationsneedqualityeducationandhealthcaretohelpmeetbasichumanneeds.Asthenumberofmobile
servicesubscriberscontinuestoskyrocket,theinfrastructureandinstalledbasefordeliveringservicesviathemobilephonecontinuestoexpand.
Meanwhile, thedwindlingnumberofnewsubscribersnecessitatesashiftoffocusbythemobilecommunicationsindustrytonewsourcesofrevenue.To
justifytheinvestmentsneededforthedevelopmentandcommercializationofmobileservicessuchasmHealth(thedeliveryandmonitoringofhealthdata
by
mobile
devices),
it
is
necessary
to
gauge
the
market
opportunity
that
exists
for
these
services.
Thisreportbuildsonapreviousreport,mHealthintheGlobalSouth:
LandscapeAnalysis,preparedbyVitalWaveConsultingtoexaminethe
currentmHealthlandscapeandprovideanoverviewofthescopeand
impactofmobileinitiativesonhealthcareacrossdevelopingregions.The
LandscapeAnalysisalsoanalyzescriticalsuccessfactorsformakingmHealth
morewidelyavailablethroughsustainableimplementations.mHealth
programsrequiretheparticipationofstakeholdersfromacrossinternational
organizations,governments,NGOs,andprivatecompanies.
Tostimulatecrosssectorparticipationandpartnership,itisnecessaryto
sizeandlocatethemHealthmarketopportunitysothattheseorganizationscanprioritizetheirinvestments,alignmHealthinvestmentswithotherbusiness
programs,and
justify
these
expenditures
to
internal
and
external
stakeholders.
GiventhenascentcharacterofthemHealthindustry,competitiveindicatorsneededtodevelopamarketsizefromthebottomupareabsent,anddataon
healthexpendituresfromthetopdownlackdetailformostdevelopingcountries.Therefore,determiningacrediblemarketsizerequiresapproachesthat
maximizetheuseofimperfectsecondarydata,includingadditionalinputsfromexpertsinthehealthfieldinthedevelopingworld.Tomovetowardthe
developmentofacrediblemarketsizing,thisreportidentifiestheavailablesecondarydataandprovidesthreepossibleapproachesforassessingthemarket
size.
Part1MarketSizingOverviewexaminestheneedforsizingthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsintheGlobalSouthandtheavailability of
reliabledatatoexecutethesizing.Basedonanalysisofreadilyavailabledataonhealthcareexpendituresandhealthcareindicatorsinthreedeveloping
countries(Turkey,Vietnam,andSouthAfrica),VitalWaveConsultingidentifiesthemissingpiecesneededtoassessthepotentialhealthcareexpenditure
thatcouldbeshiftedtomHealth.
Part2
Definitions
clarifies
the
main
terms
used
in
this
paper.
These
definitions
were
originally
proposed
in
Vital
Wave
Consultings
report,
mHealth
in
theGlobalSouth:LandscapeAnalysis,createdfortheUNFoundation.
Part3MethodologyOverviewdescribesindetailthetopdownandbottomupapproachesforsizingthemHealthmarketsandthethreemethodologies
proposedasthemostviableforthisexercise.AllproposedmethodologiesestimatethemarketopportunityforeachofthemHealthapplicationareasbut
relyondifferentsetsofdata.
Methodology1:Topdownfromhealthbudgetswithneedsbasedsegmentation
Methodology2:TopdownfromhealthICToreHealthbudgets
Methodology3:Bottomupfromhealthcareprogramcostandvolumepotentialdata
Inadditiontodetailedstepbystepexplanations,eachofthemethodologiesisevaluatedforitsadvantagesanddisadvantages.
Part4MethodologyComparisoncontraststhethreeproposedmethodologiesandcommentsonthequalityoftheirresults.
TheAppendixprovidesanoverviewofthedataonhealthcareexpendituresandhealthcaresystemsofthethreecountriesresearchedindepthTurkey,
SouthAfrica,andVietnamandevaluatesitsquality.
ThisreportwasoriginallypreparedfortheMakingthe
eHealthConnectionconferenceagatheringofmobile
healthstakeholdersinBellagio,ItalyfromJuly31toAugust
8,2008.ItwasrevisedfortheGlobalmHealthAllianceto
formafoundationalbasefortheAlliancesthought
leadershiplibrary.
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ThisreportprovidesprofessionalsfromacrosssectorsandindustrieswithmethodologiesforsizingthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsinthe
GlobalSouth.Asthesemethodologiesrelyonprimaryandsecondaryresearch,thisreportwaspreparedafterthoroughresearchforavailabledataand
identifiesgapswheresubjectmatterexpertinputisneeded.
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Part1 MarketSizingOverview
Marketsizingisgenerallymeasuredattwolevels:totalmarketandaddressablemarket.Totalmarketistheleastgranularmeasureofmarketopportunity
andusuallyrepresentsalargedemographicallyorcommerciallyidentifiablegroup.InthemHealthcontext,thetotalmarketcanbedefinedasgovernments
andorganizationsaroundtheworldthatarecurrentlyprovidinghealthrelatedservicesandprograms.Insomecases,theenduser(patientormessage
recipient)wouldalsopayformHealthservices,andmightbeconsideredpartofthetotalmarket.Thetotalmarketopportunityisthoughtofasthetotal
amount
of
funds
available
from
all
customers
for
health
care
programs.
Total
market
measures
are
normally
a
first
step
in
market
sizing,
but
they
are
rarely
usedbyorganizationaldecisionmakersbecausethetotalmarketdoesnotreflectthenumberofcustomerswhoarelikelytobuy.Forthis,onecalculatesan
addressablemarket.
Theaddressablemarketisasubsetofthetotalmarket.Putsimply,itisthenumberofindividualcustomerswhoarerealisticallywillingandabletopurchase
aproductorservice.Thewillingpartofthedefinitionconnotesthatthesolutionisappropriateforfulfillingacustomersneed,orsetofneeds.Theable
partindicatesthatthecustomerhastheresourcesnecessarytoacquireandeffectivelyusethesolution.Inotherwords,theyhavetherequisitefinancial
meanstopurchasethesolution,minimuminfrastructuretousethesolution,andtheycanacquirethesolutionthroughreasonablemeans.
TomeasuretheaddressablemarketofmHealth,onehastounderstandthesubsetofwillingandablecustomers.Thewillingwillbebasedontheimpact
ofmHealthprogramsandhowthatimpactcomparestootherpotentialinvestments.Thisisdifficulttomeasure,asmHealthiscurrentlyinitsinfancyand
verylimiteddataisavailabletomeasureitsimpact.InvestorstodaymakejudgmentsaboutthevalueofmHealthbasedontheirownexperience.Thisisa
validandnecessaryapproachforallnewindustriesortechnologyapplications,butitposeschallengestosizingthemarketonaglobalscale.
MeasuringtheablepartofanaddressablemarketgroupisbasedondatathatindicatehowmanycustomershavethemeanstopurchasemHealth
services.Thisisalsochallenging,asdatafordevelopingcountriesareoftenincomplete,unavailable,outdated,ortoolimitedtocapturethediversityand
nuanceofthecountryenvironmentforaparticularsolution.CompoundingthatchallengeisthefactthatbotheHealthandmHealthareintheirinfancyin
manydevelopingcountries,andestimatesofcurrentexpenditureonsuchsolutionsarenotsufficienttoextrapolatethemarketpotential.Inaddition,there
arelimiteddataabouthealthspendingatthesubaccountleveltoillustratehowcountriesallocatebudgetsacrossspecificprograms.Ifavailable, suchdata
couldbeusedasanindicatorofmHealthmarketpotential.
Theexerciseofmarketsizingissimilarlycomplex,asthereisnoonesizefitsallapproach.Somemarketsizingapproachesfollowatopdown
methodology,cuttingthemarketofalargerregionorindustryintosmallerpieces.Otherapproachesfollowabottomupmethodology,extrapolatinga
marketsizeforthegeographyorindustrybasedoncountrylevelorcompetitivedatapoints.However,allapproachesrelyoncredibleandcurrentdata.
ToinformanddevelopacrediblemethodologyformHealthmarketsizing,VitalWaveConsultingconductedathoroughsearchofavailabledatafromacross
internationalorganizations,
country
health
ministries,
press
and
journal
articles,
and
company
and
project
papers
and
documents.
The
data
search
covered
threedevelopingcountriesfromdifferentregionsoftheworld(SouthAfrica,Turkey,andVietnam)andincludeddocumentationofmHealthprojects
implementedworldwide.Thefollowingisasummaryoftheavailableandunavailabledatafoundinthisinvestigation:
Availabledata1
Totalhealthexpenditure(totalandpercentfromprivate,public,andexternalsources)
Healthworkforce(e.g.,thenumberandgeographicdistributionofnurses,physicians,dentists,pharmacists,beds,hospitals,healthcare
posts,andhealthcarecenters)
Healthserviceandcareindicators(e.g.,mortality,morbidity,disabilityadjustedlifeyearsperdisease,hospitaladmissions,HIVandTB
prevalence)
Drugexpenditure(totalandperdrugtype)
1More information about the data found and the documented sources can be found in the Appendix.
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Informationontheorganizationofthehealthcaresystemsaswellastrendsandthelatestdevelopmentsintheseparticularcountries
Anecdotal,noncomprehensiveinformationaboutpotentialsavingsandimprovedoperationalefficiencyfromimplementedmHealth
solutions,coveringseveralsolutionsacrossselectedcountries
Limitedorunavailabledata
Healthbudgets
at
the
sub
account
level
by
function
or
activity
(e.g.,
ICT,
preventive
and
primary
health
care
service,
health
care
education,
andbehaviorchangecampaigns)
Healthbudgetsandhealthcareindicatorsbrokendownbyarea(urbanversusrural)orbyareaunit(province)
CrediblesystematicstudyofthepotentialimpactorcostsavingsfromimplementedmHealthsolutions
Dataaboutthehealthcaresystemsandexpenditureinthecountriesresearchedisabundant,butveryhighlevel,inhibitingestimatesoftheportionof
expendituresthatcouldbeshiftedtomHealth.Publiclyavailablesourcesofinformation(e.g.,theWorldHealthOrganizationandnationalministriesof
health)andpaiddatabasesprovidereliableinformationonthosetopics,butmoreindepthknowledgefromsubjectmatterexpertsatthecountrylevelis
needed.Forexample,inputfromthelatterwouldbecriticalwhenassessingthemHealthmarketopportunitiesforcountrieswithgreatdisparitiesin
spendingandavailabilityofhealthcareserviceinurbanandruralareas.SuchdisparitiesdeterminedifferentneedsformHealthsolutionsandarenot
alwaysreflectedinthereadilyavailabledata.
AnotherimportantmissingpieceisacrediblestudyoftheimpactofmHealthsolutions.Informationaboutthebenefitscanbefoundinsomeproject
reportsandonthewebsitesofmobilephoneoperatorsandcompaniesdevelopingsuchsolutions,butthisinformationdoesnotsubstantiateimpact
beyondasinglesolutionorsmallgeographyortargetmarket,ifatall.Additionally,theimpactofaparticularsolutionwillnotnecessarilybethesamein
twodifferentcountries.Forexample,theSATELLIFEprojectestimatesthatowningaPDAdevicesavesamedicalofficerinUganda9.37hoursperweekon
average.iThesameproject,ifreplicatedinTurkey,couldhaveaverydifferentimpact.Untilcomprehensivestudiesaredone,onehastorelyonsubject
matterexpertsorfieldinterviewstoestimatetheimpactofdifferentmHealthapplications.
Below,VitalWaveConsultingproposesthreemethodologiesforassessingthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsintheGlobalSouthandits
individualregionsandcountries.ThisreportdoesnotexhaustallpossiblemethodsforsizingthemHealthmarket,butinsteadprovidesanoverviewofthe
threemethodologiesthatwouldgivethemostthoroughpictureofthemHealthinvestmentopportunities.
Given
the
above
mentioned
data
limitations
and
challenges,
all
three
proposed
methodologies
rely,
to
different
extents,
on
primary
research
in
addition
to
secondaryresearch.Also,giventhenascentcharacterofthemHealthindustry,theproposedmethodologiesconcentrateonestimatingthefutureor
potentialspendingonmHealth.
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Part2 Definitions
Thissectionincludesexplanationsoftheimportanttermsusedinthispaper:
mHealthanditsdistinctionfromeHealthandtelemedicine
mHealth
application
segmentation
DevelopingcountriesandtheGlobalSouth
ThesedefinitionswereoriginallyproposedinVitalWaveConsultingsreport,mHealthintheGlobalSouth:LandscapeAnalysis.
eHealth,mHealth,andTelemedicine:DefinitionsandRelationships
ManyanddiversedefinitionsofthetermseHealth,mHealthandtelemedicineexist.However,thereisgeneralagreementthateHealthrepresentsa
supersetofmHealthandtelemedicine.eHealthistypicallyperceivedasencompassingtheuseofanyelectronictechnologiestoprovidehealthservices.Itis
independentofpatient/providerproximityortheuseofspecifictechnology.
Forthepurposesofthispaper,VitalWaveConsulting,relyingupontheinputofindustryexpertsandresearch,hasutilizedthefollowingdefinitions:
eHealth:thedeliveryofhealthrelatedservicesviainformationandcommunicationtechnology.
mHealth:asubsetofeHealthreferringtothedeliveryofhealthrelatedservicesviamobilecommunicationstechnology.
Telemedicine:asubsetofeHealthreferringtohealthrelatedservicesdeliveredremotelywithclinicalparticipationviaelectronic
communications.TelemedicinealsohasoverlapwithmHealthwhenmobilecommunicationstechnologiesareemployedinthedelivery
process.(Telemedicineisoftenassociatedwiththeterm"telehealth,"whichmayencompassabroaderdefinitionofremotehealthcare
thatdoesnotnecessarilyinvolveclinicalservices.)
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Figure1presentsthetermsdescribedaboveinthecontextofthecorrespondinghealthcareapplicationsegments.Thesegmentsshownatthetopofthe
tablereflectthegrowingsophisticationofapplicationandtechnologicalrequirementsastheymovefromeducationandpublicawareness, attheleft,to
diagnosisandconsultationonthefarright.Itismobiletechnologysuniquecharacteristicsofportabilityandaccessthatprovidecompletelynewsolutions
tohealthcareneedsacrossabroaderrangeofhealthcareapplications.
Figure1:PositioningeHealth,mHealthandTelemedicine
mHealthApplicationSegmentation
BysurveyingabroadrangeofmHealthprograms,initiatives,andapplications,VitalWaveConsultingcreatedanapplicationsegmentationmodelbasedon
targetedhealthcaregoals.Figure2liststhesesegments,withcorrespondingdescriptionsandexamplesofspecificmHealthprogramsintheGlobalSouth.
Readingthelistfromtoptobottom,theapplicationsegmentshaveincreasingtechnologyrequirementsandcomplexityofimplementation.These
applicationcharacteristicshaveaninverserelationshipwiththeirpotentialforscale.Therefore,educationandawarenessmHealthprogramshavethe
simplesttechnologyrequirementsandimplementationmethodswiththehighestpotentialforscale.Analysis,diagnosisandconsultationapplicationsvia
mobiletechnologyaremorecomplexanddifficulttoscale.
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Figure2:mHealthApplications,Descriptions,andPotentialBenefitsandSavings
Recognizingthedistinctionsbetweenthesesegmentsandunderstandingthecharacteristicsofrelatingtechnologiesisacriticalpartofbeingabletobuild
applicationsthatpromisesustainabilityandscale.Forsomehealthcareapplications,mobiletechnologyprovidesameanstoaddressspecifictasksbetter
andfaster.However,currentmobiletechnologyisnotidealforsomemHealthapplicationsthatrequiregreaterbandwidthorlowercosts.Mobile
technologysappropriatenesstoanygivenapplicationdependsonabalanceoftechnicalperformance,cost,andefficacyconditionsthatwillcontinueto
evolve.
DevelopingCountries
and
the
Global
South
Throughoutthispaper,thetermsdevelopingcountriesandGlobalSouthareusedinterchangeably.VitalWaveConsultingfollowsestablishedWorld
BankeconomicbenchmarkstodefinedevelopingcountriesorGlobalSouthascountriesthathaveagrossnationalincome(GNI)of$10,725orlessper
capita.Intheprivatesector,thetermemergingmarketsisfrequentlyusedinterchangeablywithdevelopingcountries.
Withindevelopingcountries,VitalWaveConsultingdistinguishesbetweenthreesubgroupsaccordingtopopulationsizeandeconomicstatus.More
informationaboutthesetermsandcategoriesmaybefoundintheInsightssectionoftheVitalWaveConsultingwebsite.
Application Description Potential Benefits & Savings Examples
Education &
Awareness
Primarily one-way communication programs to mobile subscribers via
SMS/text messaging in support of public health, behavior change
campaigns.
Improved awareness
Enhanced quality of care through education
Saved time and travel cost from distant learning
Decreased cost per impression
Data, Health Record
Access
Applications designed to use mobile phones, PDAs, or laptops to enter
and access patient data. Some projects may also be used by patients to
access their own records.
Improved data accuracy
Saved office supplies Reduced time for collecting and transcribing data by
medical personnel
Increased productivity within health system
Enhanced quality of care
Monitoring/
Medication
Compliance
One-way or two-way communication to patient to monitor health
conditions, maintain care giver appointments, or ensure strict
medication regimen adherence. Some applications may also include
inpatient and outpatient monitoring sensors for monitoring of multipleconditions (such as diabetes, vital signs, or card iac.)
Improved medication adherence and reduced DALYs,
medication cost, general health care cost Improved service because of better monitoring
Saved travel time (both doctors and patients)
Reduced expense for hospital stays
Saved time for doctors through access to automated
medical history
Saved resources from fewer missed appointments
Disease/ Emergency
Tracking
Applications using mobile devices to send and receive data of disease
incidence, outbreaks, geographic spread of public health emergencies,
often in association with GPS systems and backend applications for
visualization.
Enhanced disease surveillance and control
Health/
Administrative
Systems
Applications developed for back office or central health care IT
systems allowing for access by and integration with mHealth
application. Such applications often tie in to regional, national, or
global systems.
Reduced IT/MIS cost
Reduced cost from better IT integration, reduced
compatibility problems, ease of upgrades
Analysis, Diagnosis,
and Consultation
Applications developed to provide support for diagnostic and treatment
activities of remote care givers through internet access to medical
information data bases or to medical staff.
Increased productivity within health system
Enhanced quality of care
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Market Opportunity(by application)
Total HealthExpenditure
% of Health
Expenditures forApplication Area
% of Health ApplicationSpending that can be
converted to mHealth= x x
Part3 MethodologiesOverview
BasedonavailableinformationandextensiveresearchonhealthcaremarketsindevelopingcountriesperformedbyVitalWaveConsulting,bothtopdown
andbottomupapproachesarefeasibleforestimatingthemarketsizeformHealthsolutions.Threepossiblemethodologiesaredescribedindetailbelow.
Thetwotopdownapproachmethodologies(Methodology1andMethodology2)startfromthetotalhealthcareorHealthICT/eHealthexpendituresper
country
and
estimate
the
portion
of
this
expenditure
that
can
be
shifted
to
mHealth
solutions.
The
bottom
up
approach
(Methodology
3)
starts
with
the
differentmHealthapplicationareasidentifiedinFigure2andestimatesthepotentialsavingsfromtheirimplementation.Allproposedmethodologies
estimatethemarketopportunityforeachmHealthapplication.Theaddressablemarketsize,inthiscase,isthesumofthemarketsizesperapplication.
Choosingthemostappropriatemethodologydependsonpreferencesforspecificapproaches,geographicareasofinterest,time,andbudget.
Methodology1TopdownfromHealthBudgetswithNeedsbasedSegmentation
Methodology1estimatesthemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsasaportionoftotalhealthexpenditureforeachapplicationarea.Thetotalmarket
sizeisequaltothesizeofallmarketsperapplicationcombined.
Step1:DetermineTotalHealthExpenditure
Collectinformationabouttotalhealthexpenditureineachcountry,accessibleviapublicsourcesofinformation,suchastheWorldHealthOrganization.
Step2:EstablishGeographic SegmentsBasedonHealthNeed
SegmentthedevelopingcountriesaccordingtotheirneedsforthesixmHealthapplicationareasusingavailablesecondarydata(e.g.,disabilityadjustedlife
years,healthexpenditurespercapita,landarea,ruralandurbanpopulations,andnumberofdoctorsandhospitals).Determinecountrysegmentswith
similarneedlevels(low,mediumandhigh)foreachapplication.Forinstance,countrieswithhighinstancesofinfectiousdiseasesandstressedhealth
systeminfrastructure(e.g.,nationsinsubSaharanAfrica)mayhavegreaterneedsforeducationandawarenessandmonitoring/medicationcompliance
applicationsthancountrieswithalowerincidenceofinfectiousdiseasesandmoreadvancedhealthsystems(e.g.,nationsinEasternEurope).
Therequireddatacanbeobtainedfrompublicsourcesofinformation,suchasWHO,theUnitedNations,andtheWorldBank.Morespecificinformation
canbefoundinpaiddatabasessuchasBusinessMonitorInternational.Availabledatawillbevalidatedthroughandaugmentedbyexpertopinion.Asample
needsbasedsegmentationisshowninFigure3.
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Figure3:NeedsbasedSegmentation(sampleoutput).Tableforillustrativepurposesonly.
Step3:DetermineTotalHealthExpenditureperDetermineTotalHealthExpenditureperApplicationArea(asPercentageofTotalHealthExpenditure)
UsinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrossthesixmHealthapplicationareascombinedwithanyanecdotaldatafoundforrepresentativecountries
withinthesegmenttovalidatetheexpertsopinions,theportionoftotalhealthspendingallocatedtoeachapplicationareaforeachsegmentcanbe
estimated.ThisprocessisdemonstratedinFigure4.
Step4:ConvertTotalHealthExpenditureperApplicationAreatomHealthspecificExpenditures
Usinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrosstheapplications,onecandeterminetheportionoftotalhealthspendingbyapplicationthatcouldbe
transferredtomHealthinthedifferentgeographicsegments.Thisstepincorporatesacountrysneedandthepotentialimpactofaparticularsolution,as
wellasthecosttradeoffbetweenthemHealthapplicationandtraditionalservices.Forinstance,mHealtheducationandawarenesscampaignsinsub
SaharanAfricacouldcommandahigherpercentoftheoverallbudgetiftheydirectlyreplaceradio,print,andtelevisioncampaigns.Thepenetrationof
mobileservicesacrossthepopulationandcoverageofdifferentgeographicareaswouldalsofigureintothiscalculation,takingintoconsiderationthe
increasedimpactaprogramcouldhavewithexpandedmobilecoverage.Asamplecalculationofthepotentialimpactinanapplicationareaforvarying
segments(suchascountriesorregions)isshowninFigure5.
Figure5:PortionofHealthApplicationAreaSpendingthatisConvertibletomHealthTableforillustrativepurposesonly.
Step5:CalculatetheMarketOpportunity
mHealth Application Area Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
Education & Awareness
Data Entry, Health Records Access
Monitoring/ Medication Compliance
Disease/ Emergency tracking
Health/ Administrative System
Analysis, Diagnosis, and Consultation
High Need Medium Need Low Need
mHealth Application Area Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
Education & Awareness 25% 10% 5%
Data Entry, Health Records Access 10% 15% 18%
Monitoring/ Medication Compliance 13% 7% 7%
Disease/ Emergency tracking 13% 7% 5%
Health/ Administrative System 5% 5% 8%
Analysis, Diagnosis, and Consultation 3% 3% 5%
High Need Medium Need Low Need
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Total Health ICT/eHealthExpenditure
% of Health Application Spendingthat can be converted to mHealth
Market Opportunity(by application) = x
Giventheoutcomesfromtheprevioussteps,onecancalculatethemarketopportunityformHealthsolutionsforeachoftheapplicationareaspercountry
andapplication.ThetotalmarketsizeformHealthinagivencountrywillbethesumoftheseapplicationspecificmarkets.
AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofMethodology1
Methodology2TopdownfromHealthICToreHealthBudgets
SimilartoMethodology1,Methodology2estimatesthemarketopportunityperapplicationasaportionofexistingtechnologyexpenditures.
Step1:TotalHealthICToreHealthExpenditure
CollectallavailabledataforhealthICTandeHealthexpendituresforapproximately40to50countries.Suchdataisavailablethroughpublishedreports
(suchasthosebyFrostandSullivan),pressreports,governmentpapersorspeeches,andstudiesbyacademicsandtheinternationaldevelopment
community.TotalspendingforICTinhealthcareworldwideisestimatedat34%oftotalhealthcarespending.However,fortheGlobalSouth,this
percentagewillbelower.
Step2:EstablishGeographic SegmentsBasedonHealthCareInfrastructure
Itispossibletosegmentcountriesbasedonhealthsysteminfrastructureandcoverageprofiles.However,comprehensiveresearchisneededforthis
segmentationbecausecountriesvarygreatly,notonlyinthelevelofdevelopmentoftheirhealthsysteminfrastructure,butalsointheirbudgetsources.
Forinstance,somecountriesallocatehigherportionsofthegovernmentbudgetandgrossdomesticproducttohealththanothers,andsomecountriesrely
muchmoreheavilyonprivateentitiesforhealthcareprovision.Inaddition,countrieshavevaryinglevelsofwirelessinfrastructureandmobilecapacityfor
mHealthservices.Countrieswithlimitedwirelessinfrastructureandlargepopulations(suchasEthiopiaandMyanmar)couldpresentalongtermmarket
opportunitybut
require
additional
reforms
before
widespread
mHealth
services
can
be
offered.
Step3:ConvertHealthICToreHealthExpendituretomHealthspecificExpenditure
Advantages of Methodology 1 Disadvantages of Methodology 1
Incorporates an evaluation of needs intothe analysis
Spending data are directional becausethey are based on expert opinion
Captures market opportunities beyond
current/potential IT expenditure
Requires primary research resources
(subject matter experts) that areknowledgeable of health expenditures by
application area and mHealth potential
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Average spending per person formHealth-related applications
Volume potential perapplication
Market Opportunity(by application)
= x
UsinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrossthesixmHealthapplicationareasandanyavailableanecdotalevidence,identifytheportionoftotalhealth
ICTandeHealthspendingthatcanbeconvertedtomHealthspendingacrossapplicationareasandsegments.CountriesthatareinvestinginICTforhealth
andhavestrongmobilecoveragecouldbebettercandidatestoconvertbudgetallocationstomHealthintheshortterm.
Step4:CalculateMarketOpportunity
Onecancalculatethemarketopportunityperapplicationareaandpercountryforthosewherereliabledataareavailable.Thefinalstepistoextrapolate
thisprocess
to
other
countries
using
the
same
coefficients
for
countries
in
the
same
geographic
segment.
AdvantagesandDisadvantagesofMethodology2
Methodology3:BottomupfromCostandVolumeData
Methodology3followsabottomupapproachtocalculatethemarketopportunityperapplicationareaastheproductofaveragespendingperpersonand
thevolumepotentialofanapplication.
Step1:EstablishGeographicSegmentsBasedonHealthNeed
AsinMethodology1,aneedsbasedsegmentationisrequired.OnecansegmentthedevelopingcountriesaccordingtotheirneedsforthesixmHealth
applicationareasusingavailablesecondarydata(suchasdisabilityadjustedlifeyears,healthexpenditurespercapita,landarea,ruralandurban
populations,andthenumberofdoctorsandhospitals).Then,determinecountrysegmentswithsimilarneedpatterns(low,mediumandhigh)foreach
application.
Further,onecanselect10to14representativecountriesacrossthesegmentsfordeeperinvestigation.Later,thefactorscalculatedforthesecountriescan
beappliedtoallcountriesintheparticularsegment.IllustrativeoutputoftheneedbasedsegmentationisshowninFigure3,above.
Step2:IdentifyPotentialCostSavingsfrommHealthApplicationsperArea
UsinginputsfromsubjectmatterexpertsacrossthesixmHealthapplicationareasandanyapplicableanecdotaldatafromsecondarysources,onecan
expand,refineandensuretheaccuracyandcomprehensivenessofthelistofpotentialbenefitsandsavingsoutlinedinFigure2.
Step3:ConductCountryResearch
Advantages of Methodology 1 Disadvantages of Methodology 1
Incorporates an evaluation of needs into
the analysis
Spending data are directional because
they are based on expert opinion
Captures market opportunities beyondcurrent/potential IT expenditure
Requires primary research resources(subject matter experts) that are
knowledgeable of health expenditures by
application area and mHealth potential
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Usingsecondarydatafrom10to14countriesselectedfromacrossthesegments,aswellasexpertopinion,onecandeviseanaveragecostperunitforeach
oftheapplicationareas(Figure6)ineachgeographicsegment.Additionally,onecancreatecoefficientstoadjustthoseaveragecostsfordifferentsegments
containingcountrieswithvaryingincomelevelsandhealthinfrastructure.
Forinstance,SouthAfricaandLesothocouldbeinthesamegeographicsegmentaccordingtotheirhealthneeds,butcostsforconductingepidemiological
surveysinSouthAfrica,withitslargerrurallandarea,maybemoreexpensiveperfieldworkerthaninLesothobecauseoftheneedforadditionaltravel.
Figure6:
mHealth
Per
capita
Unit
Cost
and
Volume
Potential
by
Segment
Table
for
illustrative
purposes
only.
Final
variables
to
be
adjusted
based
on
precisedataavailability.
Next,onecanidentifythevolumepotentialbyapplicationandbysegment(suchasthenumberoffieldsurveyorsneededperpopulationof1,000,the
numberofrecipientsofbehaviorchangecampaignsperpopulationof1,000,andthenumberofimpressionsneededtoinvokebehaviorchangeineach
person). Thestepsabovewilldemandbothsecondaryresearchandexpertopinion.
Step4:CalculatetheMarketPotential
Withthefindingsgeneratedfromstepsdescribedabove,onecancalculatethesumofthemarketopportunityperapplicationarea.Thebenefitofthis
approachisthatitismorecomprehensiveacrossallmHealthsavingsareasbeyondtechnology.However,italsorequiresveryknowledgeableprimary
sourcesandpresentsthemostchallengingdatarequirementsofthethreeapproaches.
High Need Medium Need Low Need
mHealth Per-capita Unit Cost Base Multiplied By Volume Potential Base
Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3 Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
Education &Awareness
Cost per
impression;
Costs per
individual
behaviorchange
Cost per
impression;
Costs per
individual
behaviorchange
Cost per
impression;
Costs per
individual
behaviorchange
Number of
impressions
(per 100)
Number of
impressions
(per 100)
Cost per
impression;
Costs per
individual
behaviorchange
Data Entry, Health
Records AccessCosts per
record accessCosts per
record accessCosts per
record access
Volume of
record access
transactions(per 100)
Volume of
record access
transactions(per 100)
Number of
impressions(per 100)
Monitoring/
Medication
Compliance
Cost per
patient
Cost per
patient
Cost per
patient
x
Number of
patients to be
monitored (per100)
Number of
patients to be
monitored (per100)
Volume of
record access
transactions(per 100)
Disease/ Emergencytracking
Cost per survey Cost per survey Cost per surveyNumber of
surveys (per100)
Number of
surveys (per100)
Number of
patients to be
monitored (per
100)
Health/
AdministrativeSystem
Cost per 100population
Cost per 100population
Cost per 100population
Population
served (per
100)
Population
served (per
100)
Number of
surveys (per
100)
Analysis, Diagnosis,
& ConsultationCost per
interactionCost per
interactionCost per
interaction
Number of
interactions(per 100)
Number of
interactions(per 100)
Population
served (per100)
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Advantagesand
Disadvantages
of
Methodology
3
Average spending per person for
mHealth-related applications
Volume potential per
application
Market Opportunity
(by application)= x
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Part4 MethodologyComparison
EachofthethreemethodologiespresentedinthispaperprovidesarealisticandcredibleapproachforestimatingthemarketopportunityformHealth
solutionsintheGlobalSouth.Allofthemincludeprimaryresearchandinputfromsubjectmatterexpertsinthedatagatheringphase.Foreffective
executionandresultsthataccuratelygaugethemarketopportunity,ateamofresearchersandanalystsworkingwithateamofexpertsoverseveral
monthswillbeneeded.
Eachmethodology,however,differsinitsapproachtowardtheexistingandreadilyavailabledata,asillustratedinFigure7.
Figure7:MethodologiesComparison
Methodology3withitsbottomupapproachprovidesthebestcombinationofcomprehensiveanddefinitiveresults.Thismethodologyis,however,the
mosttime andlaborconsumingofthethree.Ingeneral,bottomupapproachesaretimeandresourceintensiveandthereforechallengingtoimplement
globally.Butinamanageable setofcountries,itisacompellingapproach.
Methodology1ismoredirectionalthandefinitiveinitsresultswhencomparedtoMethodology3.Itreliesonsubjectexpertopinionsratherthanondata
fromglobalfieldsurveys,andislesstime andcostintensivetoimplement.
Methodology2istheleasttimeandlaborconsumingamongallthreeapproaches.Theresultswillbemoredirectionalthanwiththeothermethodologies.
ThisapproachestimatestheportionofHealthICTandeHealthbudgetsthatcouldbeshiftedtowardmHealthsolutionsandomitstheotherareaswhere
mHealthwillhaveimpact(e.g.,augmentingorreplacingtraditionalmediainawarenessandbehaviorchangecampaigns).Thisapproachisbestusedin
caseswithlimitedbudgetsandtheneedforaglobalestimateofthemarketsize.
AllthreeproposedmethodologiesanalyzeeithercurrentexpendituresorthosethatcouldbeavailabletomHealthsolutionsthroughshiftingbudgetline
items(justifiedbycostsavingsresultingfrommHealthservices).TwootherimportantaspectsofimplementingmHealthsolutionsaretheimproved
efficiencyandimprovedservicethataremoredifficulttomeasureortoexpressinmonetaryterms.Undoubtedly,measuringtheoutcomesshouldbepart
ofthemarketsizingaswell,butcredibleinformationforthisisnotyetavailable.Itisalsoimportanttonotethatameasurement oftheresultsofmHealth
solutionswill
draw
additional
investments
in
this
field.
Directional
Comprehensive
Narrow
Methodology1
Definitive
Methodology2
Methodology3
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Appendix:AvailableDataandSources
Theinformationbelowsummarizesavailabledata,illustratingthelevelofdetailandprovidingguidelinesforfurtherresearch.Itisnotacomprehensive
overviewoftherespectivehealthcaremarkets.
WorldHealthOrganization StatisticalInformationSystem
ThemostimportantsourceofhighlevelstatisticaldataonhealthcarepercountryisthedatabaseoftheWorldHealthOrganization,theWHOStatistical
InformationSystem(WHOSIS).WHOSIScontainshistoricalvaluesformanyindicators,allowingtheidentificationoftrendsandforecasting.Thedatabase
containsdatafor164indicatorsinthefollowingsixcategories:
Demographicandsocioeconomicstatistics
Healthservicecoverage
Healthsystemsresources
Inequitiesinhealthcareandhealthoutcome
Mortalityand
burden
of
disease
Riskfactors
Fordevelopingcountries,however,andforthecountriessurveyedbyVitalWaveConsultinginparticular,dataformanyofthe164WHOSISindicatorsare
notavailable.Themostrelevantandavailabledatacoverthefollowingindicators:
Totalhealthcareexpenditureinabsolutevalue,asapercentageofGDP,percapita,inrealdollars,internationaldollars,andnational
currencyunits.
Breakdownofthetotalhealthcareexpenditureinto:
Privatespendingsuchasoutofpocketpayment,prepaidandriskpoolingplans,andNGOs
PublicspendingsuchasMinistryofHealth,socialsecurityfunds,andothergovernmentspending
Externalsourcessuchasinternationaldonorprograms.
Healthworkforceandresources(nurses,midwives,physicians,dentists,pharmacists,hospitals,hospitalbeds)inabsolutevalueandpera
populationof1,000.
SomeoftheWHOSISindicatorsthatwouldbehelpfulinthemarketassessmentandforwhichdatafortheresearchedcountriesarenotavailableare:
Expenditureoninpatientcurativecare
Expenditureonpreventionandpublichealthservices
Expenditureonhospitals
Expenditureonhumanhealthresources
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AlthoughtheWHOSISdatabaseisprobablythebestsourceforhighlevelhealthcaredatapercountry,somenationalgovernmentsprovidedmuchmore
detailedanduptodatedataonhealthcareintheircountry.
HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinSouthAfrica
SouthAfrica,forexample,hasawelldocumentedhealthcaresystemanddatabasewithcomprehensivestatisticalinformationoncountryandprovince
levels.TheNationalDepartment ofHealth(www.doh.gov.za)issuesaDepartmentofHealthAnnualReportgivingdetailsonlegislativechanges,
departmentalrevenueandexpenditure,strategichealthprograms,andprogressmadetowardachievingestablishedgoals.TheroleoftheNational
Department ofHealthismainlystrategicanditsparticipationinSouthAfricashealthcareexpenditureislessthan1percent.
MoredetaileddataabouthealthcarethanthatfoundthroughWHOSISandtheNationalDepartment ofHealthareavailableontheProvincialDepartments
ofHealthwebsites(http://www.doh.gov.za/links/index.html).Thesedepartmentsareresponsiblefortheallocationofmorethan95percentofgovernment
healthspending.Eachofthedepartmentsissuesanannualreportwithdetailsonitsfinancialspending,humanresources,andthefollowingprograms:
Program1:HealthAdministration
Program2:DistrictHealthServices
Program3:EmergencyMedicalServices
Program4:ProvincialHospitalServices
Program5:HealthSciencesandTraining
Program6:HealthCareSupport
Program7:HealthFacilitiesManagement
Besidespurelyquantitativeinformationonagreatnumberofhealthindicators,thesereportsincludethequalitativeinformationneededforabetter
understandingofthelocalhealthcaresystemandanassessmentofthepotentialbenefitsofmHealthsolutionsanoverviewofthecurrentsituation,
discussionsofproblems(suchasdisparitiesindifferentregionswithinaprovince)andprojectionsforthefuture.Thelevelofdetailsurpassesthedetailsin
apubliccompanysannualreport.
WhiletheNationalandProvincialDepartmentsofHealthsdocumentationcontaindatamainlyaboutpublichealthexpenditureandgovernmentprograms,
theHealthSystemTrust(www.hst.org.za)andStatisticsSouthAfrica(www.statssa.gov.za)provideinformationonSouthAfricashealthcareasawhole.
HealthSystemTrustsannualreportSouthAfricanHealthReview2007(http://www.hst.org.za/publications/711)focusesonbroadareaswithrespectto
theroleoftheprivatehealthsector.Theseareasincludeoversight,poolingofresources,purchasingofhealthcare,deliveryofhealthcareservicesand
healthrelatedindicators.Criticalissuescoveredinthe2007reviewinclude:
Assessmentoftheroleofthegovernmentintheoveralltransformationprocessofthehealthsector.
Policyandlegislativereviewontheprovisionandfundingofprivatehealthcare.
Reviewandanalysisofhealthcarefinancingandexpenditureaswellasrecenttrendsinspendinginthepublicandprivatehealthsectors.
Overviewofhealthinformationsystemsandtheroleplayedbyintermediariesinfacilitatingtheflowofpatientinformation.
AnalysisofthehealthstatusoftheSouthAfricanworkforceandhealthcareprovisionintheworkplace.
Analysisanddevelopmentsinthemarketandregulatoryenvironmentimpactingmedicinepricingandaccesstomedicines.
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Reviewoftheimpactofpublicprivatepartnershipsonaccesstohealthcareandhealthoutcomes.
Analysisoftheprivatehospitalindustrywithspecificfocusonstructure,ownership,andmarketsharepergeographicalregionandthe
natureofrelationshipsbetweenprivatehospitalsandproviders.
AnalysisoftheprivatesectorsresponseforHIV/AIDS,sexuallytransmittedinfections,andtuberculosis.
Inbrief,
the
report
summarizes
the
most
relevant
data
from
the
sources
described
above,
and
compares
the
health
care
systems
across
provinces
on
both
thepublicandprivatelevel.SeeReferencesforsourcedata.
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HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinVietnam
Whiledetaileddataonhealthcareexpenditure,allocation,andindicatorsforSouthAfricaareabundant,readilyavailableandeasilyaccessiblethrough
governmentagenciesorpublicinstitutionswebsites,thisisnotthecaseformanyotherdevelopingcountries,suchasVietnam.ForVietnam,WHOSIS
provestobethebestsourceforquantitativedata,eventhoughitgivesdatathataretoohighleveltobedirectlyusefulfordetermininghowmoniesare
spent.
TheEnglish
version
of
the
Vietnamese
Ministry
of
Healths
website
(www.moh.gov.vn)
contains
little
qualitative
or
quantitative
information,
while
the
HealthPolicyandStrategyInstitute(www.hspi.org.vn)referstodocumentspreparedbytheUnitedNationsandWHO.TheVietnameseversionofthe
MinistryofHealthswebsitecontainssomequantitativedata,butinmuchlessdetailthanthedataavailableintheWHOStatisticalInformationSystem.
UptodatequantitativedataonhealthcareindicatorsareavailableonthewebsiteoftheGeneralStatisticsOfficeofVietnam(www.gso.gov.vn).However,
theindicatorscoveredlargelyoverlapwiththoseintheWHOSISandgivelittlenewinformation.Additionally,mostofthedataexcludetherapidlygrowing
privatesectorandaresummarizedatthecountrylevel.
TwoadditionalfactsmakefindingindepthinformationinVietnamdifficult:
Vietnams64provinceshavesignificantbudgetandinvestmentautonomy.
Privateoutofpocketspendingrepresentsasmuchas80percentoftotalspendingonhealthcareinVietnam.
Inbrief,asystematicstudyonthehealthcareexpenditureinVietnamatalevelofdetailthatwouldaddtothemarketassessmenteffortsisnotavailable.
Mostoftheexternaldatasources(suchastheUnitedNations,UnitedNationsPopulationFund,WHO,WorldBank,InternationalMonetaryFund,andthe
AsiaPacificActionAllianceonHumanResourcesforHealth)usethequantitativedataalreadyavailable.Thesesources,however,containqualitative
descriptionsoftheorganizationofthehealthcaresysteminVietnam,whichprovidesusefulbackground.SeeReferencesforsourcedata.
HealthExpenditureandHealthCareServiceIndicatorsinTurkey
WhileSouthAfricaandVietnamrepresenttheextremesofreadilyavailableandeasilyaccessiblehealthdata,Turkeyprovidesasatisfactory,ifnot
thorough,quantityofdata.InformationabouttheTurkishhealthcaresystemisnotasstructuredascorrespondinginformationforSouthAfrica,butitisstill
abundantandcontainsusefuldetails.
RelevantandinformativedocumentationaboutthehealthcaresysteminTurkeyisavailableontheMinistryofHealthwebsite(www.saglik.gov.tr).The
TurkeyHealthTransformationProgramdocumentdescribesthelatestdevelopments,ongoingprojectsandfuturegovernmentplanstoaddresstopics
suchashealthcareorganizations,currentandfutureexpenditures,hospitalsandhospitalservices,humanresourcesavailabilityandtrainingand
geographicaldisparities.TurkeysprofileontheWHOwebsite(www.euro.who.int/document/e79838.pdf)addstothesetopics,butdatainthedocument
areoutdated.
TurkeysprofileontheOECDwebsite(www.oecd.org/turkey)providesbasichealthcareindicatorsforTurkeyincomparisontoothermembers.OECDalso
breaksdowndetailsofhealthcareexpenditures(http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/7/49/33696739.pdf)bymainfunction,financingagentandhealthcare
provider.
Someofthequantitativedatainthisdocumentisoutdated,butitstillgivesasolidstartingpointforfurtherexplorationofhealthcareexpendituresin
Turkey.
Inbrief,
the
public
sources
of
information
provide
good
documentation
for
one
to
get
acquainted
with
the
health
care
system
and
expenditure
on
acountry
level.However,quantitativedataandprofilesofthe81provinces,oratleasttheregionswithgreatdisparitiesinhealthcarespendingandservices,will
requireinputfromasubjectmatterexpert.SeeReferencesforsourcedata.
PaidDatabasesforHealthcareData
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Paiddatabases(e.g.,ISIEmergingMarketsandBusinessMonitorInternational)mainlyusehealthcareexpendituredataandcountryprofilesfromWHO,
therespectivehealthministrywebsitesandstatisticsofficesandextrapolatethem.However,furtherbreakdownofhealthcareexpendituresatasub
accountlevelisusuallymissing.
AnimportantdatapointaboutdisabilityadjustedlifeyearsperdiseasecanbefoundintheBusinessMonitorInternationaldatabases.Asdescribedin
Methodology1above,thisinformationisusefulinsegmentationofthecountriesintheGlobalSouth.
Dataon
the
Impact
from
mHealth
Solutions
AcrediblestudyoftheimpactofmHealthsolutionsisnotavailable,andimpactisakeyindicatorindeterminingthemarketthatiswillingtopurchase.
Informationaboutthebenefitscanbefoundinsomeprojectpapersandonsomewebsitesofmobilephoneoperatorsandcompaniesdevelopingsuch
solutions,butthisinformationisanecdotalratherthancomprehensive.Subjectmatterexpertscanhelpaugmenttheanecdotaldatatoalevelthatis
quantifiableandcredibleforthemarketsizingmodel.However,thiswouldnotbearigorousimpactstudy,butanestimationbasedonexpertopinion
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(March2005).
bridges.org.
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on
14
May
2008
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SouthAfricanHealthReview,2007.(2007).Durban:HealthSystemsTrust.Retrievedon18May2008from:http://www.hst.org.za/publications/711
Vietnamhealthexpenditureandhealthcareserviceindicators:
AdamsSJ.VietnamsHealthCareSystem:AMacroeconomicPerspective,InternationalMonetaryFund.2005.Retrievedon19May2008from:
http://imf.org/external/country/VNM/rr/sp/012105.pdf
HuongP,HueV.VietnamHITCaseStudy.CenterforHealthandAgingHealthInformationTechnologyandPolicyLab,TheNationalBureauofAsianResearch.2007.RetrievedonMay18,2008from:http://pacifichealthsummit.org/downloads/HITCaseStudies/Economy/VietnamHIT.pdf
NguyenT,LofgrenC,NguyenT,JanlertU,LindholmL.Householdoutofpocketpaymentsforillness:EvidencefromVietnam.BMCPublicHealth.
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WHOCountryCooperationStrategy,Vietnam,20032006.WorldHealthOrganization,VienamCountryOffice.WorldHealthOrganization;2007.RetrievedonJune1,2008fromwww.un.org.vn/who/docs/whoccs.pdf
Turkey
health
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health
care
service
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HealthCareandHealthCareEquipments.TurkishUSBusinessCouncil,2007.RetrievedonMay12,2008from:http://www.turkeynow.org/db/Docs/A%20Healthcare%20May%202006.pdf
Mandil,S.TurkeyeHealthStrategyTowardsthestartofImplementation.RepublicofTurkey,MinistryofHealth.2007.Retrievedon10May2008
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