small businesses and the employed in the inland …...in the inland empire, very small and small...

Small Businesses and the Self-Employed in the Inland Empire

August 2019

Economy White Paper Series

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Introduction

To understand what contributes to a region’s economic dynamism and vitality, it is important to study the

structure of the economy and its key levers. This is the second of two white papers that go beyond headline job

numbers and assess the Inland Empire economy in terms of business establishments as well as employment. This

research improves our understanding of the regional economy’s structure by examining firm behavior “on the

ground.” In turn, it allows local leaders to fashion more effective economic and workforce development policies

in order to nurture long-run growth.

The first white paper examined business activity in the Inland Empire as represented by establishment and em-

ployment trends by industry. This white paper, the second in the series, examines business activity trends across

industries by firm size. It also studies the prevalence of self-employed persons across the region’s industries, and

evaluates the extent to which the “gig economy” has a growing presence in the region. This paper uses the most

recent data available, which currently runs through 2016 (please see Data Sources below).

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The Inland Empire has experienced the fastest job growth among all of Southern California’s regional economies for several

years running, and has outpaced the overall state in job growth for seven consecutive years. This has led to a dramatic im-

provement in the local unemployment rate, now in record territory at near 4%, and lower than the unemployment rate in

California as a whole. While the Transportation and Warehousing/Logistics industry have been frequently touted for their

job growth in recent years, Health Care, Food and Hotel Services, Construction, and even Retail Trade have also made sig-

nificant contributions to the Inland Empire’s job growth.

Figure 1 - IE Outpaces CA in Job Gains 7 Years in a Row

Source: California EDD, Analysis by UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development

6.0%

-2.0%

2.0%

-6.0%

4.0%

-4.0%

0.0%

-8.0%2006 20112008 2013 20162007 20122009 2014 20172010 2015 2018

IE

CA

Figure 2 - IE Employment Rate

Source: California EDD, Analysis by UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development

16.0%

8.0%

12.0%

4.0%

14.0%

6.0%

10.0%

2.0%

0.0%2006 20112008 2013 20162007 20122009 2014 20172010 2015 2018

IE

CA

Executive Summary

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But what is happening at a deeper level within the

economy? Are new businesses emerging in re-

sponse to the underlying growth trends? To what

extent is small business participating in recent busi-

ness trends within the Inland Empire economy? And

how prevalent are self-employed business owners

in the regional economy?

The health of the small business sector has long

been viewed as a key indicator of a region’s eco-

nomic dynamism and vitality. One way to measure

small business is to track the extent to which busi-

ness and job growth in the region have emanated

from small firms as opposed to medium and large

sized firms. This paper examines the Inland Empire

economy from two angles. First, it reports on trends

in the numbers of establishments by industry and

by size of establishment in an effort to evaluate

the contribution small businesses make to the In-

land Empire economy. Second, it looks at trends in

self-employed workers and assesses their contribu-

tion to the region’s job and business growth.

Key Highlights/Findings:There were 71,807 business establishments in the Inland Empire in 2016, an increase of 7,182 or 11.1% over 2011. 1

Compared to the state as a whole, the mix of estab-lishments by size in the Inland Empire in 2016 was characterized by a smaller concentration of Small firms and a somewhat larger share of Medium sized and Large establishments.

While Very Small establishments accounted for over half (52.9%) of the growth in new establishments statewide between 2011 and 2016, they accounted for just 45.1% of the gains in the Inland Empire. On the other hand, the region had the edge over the state in growth of Small businesses (31.0% versus 25.5% statewide) and Medium businesses (19.7% versus 17.2%).

51.8% of all establishments




Very Small (1 to 4 employees):

Small (5 to 19 employees):

Medium (20 to 99 employees):

Large (100 to more employees):

Despite accounting for 86.1% of establishment growth in the Inland Empire, Very Small and Small businesses together accounted for just 17.7% of the job growth that occurred in the region from 2011 through 2016. By contrast, Large firms account for just 4.2% of es-tablishment growth but nearly half (48.9%) of employ-ment gains.

Nearly 85% of the establishments in the Inland Empire are Very Small or Small:

1 The first report in this series describes establishment growth trends for the Inland Empire in more detail.

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Five industries accounted for 57% of the 54,971 Very Small and Small businesses in the Inland Empire in 2016: Retail Trade, Health Care, Construction, Pro-fessional, Scientific, and Technical Services, and Other Services.

Combining Very Small businesses and Small business-es, Construction added the largest number of estab-lishments (694), followed by Health Care (639). These two industries were followed somewhat distantly by Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (550), Real Estate Rental and Leasing (548), and Transporta-tion and Warehousing (541). Each of these industries is known anecdotally to have large numbers of small, independent business enterprises.

Analysis of self-employed workers in the region re-veals that there were 308,401 self-employed workers in the Inland Empire in 2016, 27% of the total num-ber of wage and salary workers. Real Estate and Oth-er Services were the only two industries with more self-employed workers than wage and salary workers in 2016.

The total number of self-employed in the Inland Em-pire increased by 9% from 2011 to 2016, somewhat slower than the 11.1% growth rate for business es-tablishments with wage and salary workers.

Transportation and Warehousing experienced the biggest increase in the number of self-employed workers from 2011 to 2016 – a 70% jump. This is partly because of increases in truckers and warehouse workers, but also because of increases in on-demand shared ride services such as Uber and Lyft.

Most other industries experienced smaller gains in the number of self-employed, with notable exceptions being Health Care, which has seen industry consoli-dation in recent years, Mining, which was adversely affected by decreases in energy and commodity pric-es earlier this decade, and Agriculture, which may be encroached upon by population growth in the region.

In general, industries that experienced the largest increase in small business establishment counts and self-employed tend to favor smaller firm size, whether because of low entry costs that make it easy to start up a business, or because the type of business itself is difficult to operate at large scale.

Understanding these nuances will be valuable to develop-

ing effective economic development policies and support

programs. Because economic development resources are

scarce, programs should be evaluated a priori to ensure

that they complement each other and don’t compete

with goals of other programs or squander resources. This

means that local leaders must be able to recognize which

businesses and industries are more likely to meet a par-

ticular policy goal and which are not. In turn, this requires

an understanding of which industries have characteristics

that are conducive to a given goal, the trends within a

given industry that may influence attainment of that goal,

and finally, external forces (for example, global competi-

tion) that play a role over which local government has no

control.

Data SourcesThe primary data source for this analysis is County Business Patterns (CBP), which is released annual-ly by the U.S. Census Bureau. The most recent re-lease, for the 2016 calendar year, came out in the second quarter of 2018. CBP provides subnational economic data by detailed industry. It reports on the number of establishments and employment during the week of March 12 each year, and also includes data on quarterly and annual payroll.

A second, less well-known Census Bureau product is the Nonemployer Statistics (NES) survey, also released in the second quarter of 2018 and con-taining information on establishments that have no employees. The NES is also an annual series, providing subnational economic data for business-es that have no paid employees and are subject to federal income tax. This series includes number of businesses and total receipts by industry.

This analysis examines business activity in the In-land Empire between the year 2011 and the latest available year, 2016. This corresponds to the peri-od following the ‘Great Recession’ when the region made significant progress in recovering from the downturn and then embarking on its current re-cord-setting expansion.

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Trends in Business Establishments By Size

Small businesses are generally touted as significant contributors to the vitality of any regional economy—and the

State of California is viewed as a hotbed of entrepreneurial activity. The following section examines business growth

trends in the Inland Empire by establishment size with particular focus on small business growth.

For the purpose of this white paper, ‘Small’ businesses are defined as having fewer than 20 employees. This is considerably

smaller than the threshold used by the U.S. Small Business Administration, which, as a general rule of thumb, considers

establishments with fewer than 500 employees to be ‘Small’ businesses. However, this study’s definition makes it possible

to focus on small sized firms where early signs of growth should be evident.

County Business Patterns data from the U.S. Census Bureau describes establishments by size, using a total of nine

categories. In this analysis, those categories are reduced to the following four:

• Very Small (1 to 4 employees):

• Small (5 to 19 employees):

• Medium (20 to 99 employees):

• Large (100 to more employees):

Overall Trends

Like the state and the nation, the Inland Empire has a very large number of smaller sized business establishments. Very

Small establishments account for more than half of all establishments in the region, while Small establishments account

for about 30%; this is also true in California overall. The Inland Empire does have a slightly larger share of Medium and

Large establishments compared to the state as a whole. The biggest difference between the region and state may be found

among Very Small establishments, which account for 51.8% of total establishments in the Inland Empire, 4.4% less than

in the state.

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Table 1 - Establishments by Size, Inland Empire and State

Table 2 - Structure & Sources of Growth by Size of Firm

Number of Establishments in IE

Share of EstablishmentsBy Size, 2016

IE Share of

Share of Growth by Size, 2011-16

Share of Growth by...

Size of Establishment

Size of Establishment

2016 IE

Estabs. Estabs.

IECA

Jobs Jobs

CA

All establishments

Very Small-1 to 4 employees

Small-5 to 19 employees

Medium-20 to 99 employees

Large-100 or more

All establishments

Very Small-1 to 4 employees

Small-5 to 19 employees

Medium-20 to 99 employees

Large-100 or more

71,807

37,172

23,267

9,582

1,786

100.0%

51.8%

32.4%

13.3%

2.5%

100.0%

51.8%

32.4%

13.3%

2.5%

100.0%

45.1%

31.0%

19.7%

4.2%

100.0%

45.1%

31.0%

19.7%

4.2%

100.0%

56.1%

29.8%

11.8%

2.3%

100.0%

6.7%

16.9%

30.5%

45.9%

100.0%

52.9%

25.5%

17.2%

4.4%

100.0%

4.6%

13.1%

33.3%

48.9%

Source: County Business Patterns, Analysis by UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development


However, the Inland Empire and the state as a whole differ considerably in terms of establishment growth from 2011 to

2016. Very Small firms accounted for less than half (45.1%) of the establishment growth in the region compared to 52.9%

in California overall. Small and Medium firms accounted for a larger share of growth in the Inland Empire than in the state,

while Large firms accounted for a comparatively smaller share of growth (despite accounting for a larger share of estab-

lishments).

But to what extent are small businesses contributing to job growth in the Inland Empire? Also, which industries are en-

joying most of that growth? The answer is that while a majority of firms in the region are Very Small, they account for the

smallest share of jobs among all the firm size categories. Moreover, from 2011 to 2016 these firms made the smallest

contribution to total job gains. In fact, most of the job growth over the 5-year study period occurred among Medium and

Large establishments.

These observations shed light on the role played by Very Small and Small businesses in the Inland Empire’s recent eco-

nomic expansion. Small businesses are frequently perceived to be a key source of growth in a local economy. That may be

true in terms of establishment formation, but this segment of the Inland Empire’s overall business sector has made smaller

contributions to job gains than Medium or Large establishments.

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Five industries accounted for 57% of the 54,971 Very Small and Small businesses in the Inland Empire in 2016:

• Retail Trade: 7,959 establishments (14% of all Very Small and Small establishments)

• Health Care: 6,865 (12%)

• Construction: 5,991 (11%)

• Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services2: 5,301 (10%)

• Other Services3: 5,262 (10%)

Industries such as Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Health Care, and Management have roughly the same shares of Very Small

and Small businesses. Very Small businesses are particularly prominent within Agriculture, Real Estate Rental and Leasing,

and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services where they account for 70% or more of all establishments in those

industries in the region. Very Small businesses are considerably less prevalent in Mining, Utilities, and Food and Hotel

industries where they account for less than one-third of all establishments. On the other hand, Mining, Food and Hotel,

and Retail Trade have the largest shares of Small businesses, where they account for 40% or more of all establishments in

those industries in the Inland Empire.

Table 3 - Number of Establishments by Size across IE Industries, 2016

Very Small1 to 4

Small5 to 19

Medium20 to 99

Large100+

Total Establishments Employment

Total Nonfarm

Agriculture

Mining

Utilities

Construction

Mfg

Wholesale Tr.

Retail Tr.

Trans. and Whsg.

Information

Fin. and Ins.

R.E. Rental

Pro. Sci. Tech.

Mgmt.

Admin Svcs.

Ed. Svcs.

Health Care

Arts. Ent. Rec.

Food and Hotel

Other

33,933

67

18

42

4,187

1,163

2,114

4,028

1,329

396

2,000

2,521

3,960

105

1,908

349

3,832

392

1,825

3,564

8,170

3

13

36

604

722

518

1,401

353

126

250

113

279

68

434

125

714

197

1,878

336

64,625

90

57

141

6,673

3,136

4,141

9,674

2,436

794

3,282

3,419

5,606

290

3,435

740

7,791

814

6,329

5,636

21,038

15

24

47

1,804

1,047

1,428

3,931

636

235

1,016

775

1,341

99

932

232

3,033

186

2,551

1,698

1,484

5

2

16

78

204

81

314

118

37

16

10

26

18

161

34

212

39

75

38

980,475

1,176

1,360

5,960

61,365

91,041

55,975

159,955

64,469

16,519

26,754

16,515

33,409

9,649

79,690

22,044

144,542

26,041

120,919

42,928


2 This industry includes engineers, lawyers, IT consultants, management consultants, and other service professionals that often have relatively small offices with a handful of employees.3 This industry includes personal services such as hair and nail salons, auto mechanic firms and similar activities.

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Table 4 - Share of Establishments by Size across IE Industries, 2016

Very Small1 to 4

Small5 to 19

Medium20 to 99

Large100+

Total Establishments

Total Nonfarm

Agriculture

Mining

Utilities

Construction

Mfg

Wholesale Tr.

Retail Tr.

Trans. and Whsg.

Information

Fin. and Ins.

R.E. Rental

Pro. Sci. Tech.

Mgmt.

Admin Svcs.

Ed. Svcs.

Health Care

Arts. Ent. Rec.

Food and Hotel

Other

52.5%

74.4%

31.6%

29.8%

62.7%

37.1%

51.1%

41.6%

54.6%

49.9%

60.9%

73.7%

70.6%

36.2%

55.5%

47.2%

49.2%

48.2%

28.8%

63.2%

12.6%

3.3%

22.8%

25.5%

9.1%

23.0%

12.5%

14.5%

14.5%

15.9%

7.6%

3.3%

5.0%

23.4%

12.6%

16.9%

9.2%

24.2%

29.7%

6.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

100.0%

32.6%

16.7%

42.1%

33.3%

27.0%

33.4%

34.5%

40.6%

26.1%

29.6%

31.0%

22.7%

23.9%

34.1%

27.1%

31.4%

38.9%

22.9%

40.3%

30.1%

2.3%

5.6%

3.5%

11.3%

1.2%

6.5%

2.0%

3.2%

4.8%

4.7%

0.5%

0.3%

0.5%

6.2%

4.7%

4.6%

2.7%

4.8%

1.2%

0.7%


From 2011 to 2016, across all Inland Empire industries and firm sizes, Health Care experienced the largest increase in

overall number of establishments (914), followed by Food and Hotel (876), and Construction (858). Only Agriculture lost

establishments during this period.

Breaking down overall changes in the number of establishments by industry, Table 5 shows that much of the growth in

Very Small business establishments in the Inland Empire occurred in service industries that may be characterized by a large

number of smaller sized businesses. Between 2011 and 2016, the largest increase in Very Small establishments occurred

in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (457), a key sector that includes engineers, lawyers, IT consultants, man-

agement consultants, and other service professionals who often have relatively small offices with a handful of employees.

This was followed by Real Estate and Rental Services (443), another industry often characterized by a large number of

smaller sized businesses.

With the overall growth that has been occurring in the Inland Empire’s Transportation and Warehousing (411) and Con-

struction sectors (382), it’s no surprise to see a significant jump in Very Small businesses within these industries. At the

other end of the spectrum, there has been relatively little growth in Very Small businesses in industries that tend to have

large capital-intensive operations such as Manufacturing, and land- as well as capital-intensive activities such as Agricul-

ture.

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Table 5 - Change in Numbers of Establishments 2011-16

Total Nonfarm

Pro. Sci. Tech.

R.E. Rental

Trans. and Whsg.

Construction

Wholesale Tr.

Admin Svcs.

Other

Health Care

Information

Fin. and Ins.

Food and Hotel

Ed. Svcs.

Arts. Ent. Rec.

Mgmt.

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Mfg

Retail Tr.

155,509

4,676

2,282

23,696

25,609

10,569

-2,571

2,463

24,555

-53

150

27,980

1,061

2,301

1,927

-380

-528

-5

4,551

27,174

2,229

93

105

130

312

178

3

186

369

63

126

249

43

64

6

6

-5

2

62

236

302

10

0

40

52

22

14

-4

22

-10

6

32

-2

13

2

-1

-1

-1

30

78

7,182

619

571

661

858

579

373

520

914

190

183

876

77

137

31

24

0

-6

121

462

3,239

457

443

411

382

332

319

304

270

116

108

54

32

32

25

13

7

-11

-22

-23

1,412

59

23

80

112

47

37

34

253

21

-57

541

4

28

-2

6

-1

4

51

171


Change In Establishments by Size of Establishment

Industry Change in Empl11-16

Very Small1 to 6

Small5 to 19

Medium20 to 99

Total ChgEstablishments

Large 100 +

Somewhat surprisingly, the number of Very Small Retail Trade establishments declined from 2011 to 2016 (-23), although

the economic expansion over this period likely drove retailers to grow larger, something that is evident by the increase in

these establishments in other size categories. The expansion also triggered growth in Construction and Food and Hotel

establishments, with increases occurring across the range of firm sizes. Health Care also saw large increases across the

board as that industry expanded in response to demographic changes and greater demand for health care services.

Among Small businesses (5 to 19 employees), Health Care saw the largest increase in the number of establishments (369

Small establishments), far outpacing Construction (312) and Food and Hotel (249), which had the second- and third-larg-

est gains, respectively. Only Mining saw a decrease in the number of establishments over this period.

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The Inland Empire’s top eight (out of 18 total) industries account for more than 85% of all self-employed workers in the

region. Other Services comes in at number one with just over 55,000 self-employed workers. This is not surprising given

the array of personal services that comprise that industry, including hair and nail salons, auto mechanic firms, and similar

activities. Following Other Services are a number of industries that were identified in the previous section as having large

numbers of Very Small establishments, including Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Transportation and Ware-

housing, Construction, and Health Care (a number of sub-sectors that have relatively modest capital requirements and

lend themselves to small-scale operations also have significant numbers of the self-employed). These stand in contrast

to industries such as Agriculture, Utilities, and Mining, where capital (and land) requirements tend to be more significant.

Self-Employed in the Inland Empire

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Nonemployer Statistics (NES) survey provides high level information about establish-

ments that have no employees, henceforth referred to in this paper as ‘self-employed’. Examples of work arrange-

ments for the self-employed include:

• an attorney or other professional who works on his/her own and has a steady stream of business

• a performer in the arts and entertainment industry

• a contingent worker in any number of industries in the so-called gig economy, which includes Uber and Lyft drivers

• an independent truck driver who owns and operates a rig to move containers from one point to another

• a handyman in the construction sector

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Table 6 - Self Employed Workers by Industry

Other Services

Prof. Sci. and Technical Svcs

Administrative

Transportation and Warehousing

Retail Trade

Health Care

Construction

Real Estate, Rental, Leasing

Arts, Entertainment, and Rec.

Finance and Insurance

Educational Services

Wholesale Trade

Manufacturing

Hotel and Food Services

Information

Agriculture

Utilities

Mining

Total

55,040

35,429

30,425

28,934

28,229

28,073

27,891

27,854

12,181

7,834

6,676

6,274

4,951

4,221

3,125

889

259

116

308,401

45,391

38,085

77,119

88,165

187,129

169,097

86,974

18,797

28,342

26,904

23,105

66,544

95,592

148,899

16,466

1,171

5,580

832

1,135,984

17.8%

11.5%

9.9%

9.4%

9.2%

9.1%

9.0%

9.0%

3.9%

2.5%

2.2%

2.0%

1.6%

1.4%

1.0%

0.3%

0.1%

0.0%

100.0%

1.21

0.93

0.39

0.33

0.15

0.17

0.32

1.48

0.43

0.29

0.29

0.09

0.05

0.03

0.19

0.76

0.05

0.14

0.27

Source: Nonemployer Statistics, Analysis by UCR Center for Economic Forecasting and Development

Industry # of Self-Employed (NES)

Share of All Self Employment

# of Employees (CBP)

Ratio NES to CBP

It is worth noting that industries display considerable variation in terms of the presence of self-employed workers among

their ranks. This can be illustrated by comparing the number of self-employed workers in an industry to the number of

wage and salary workers, who are employees. In the Inland Empire, only Real Estate Services and Other Services have a

larger share of self-employed than employees. The Professional, Scientific and Technical Services industry has near parity

between the two, but the remaining industries are principally characterized by large numbers of employees. This includes

certain industries that are commonly thought of as having a high number of self-employed workers, notably Arts and En-

tertainment, Construction, and Transportation and Warehousing.

Trends over time in the number of self-employed workers vary greatly across the Inland Empire’s industries. Figures 3 and

4 illustrate changes in the number of self-employed workers in the region from 2011 through 2016, indexed to the year

2011. The first figure includes industries that exhibited above average growth over the period. While the total number of

self-employed workers increased by a modest 9%, Transportation and Warehousing saw a 70% increase in the self-em-

ployed. This is due in part to the explosive growth of the goods movement sector in the Inland Empire, but also because of

the relatively recent surge in on-demand rideshare workers for Uber and Lyft. Other industries in the region experienced

more modest growth in self-employed workers, albeit at a faster rate than the industry-wide average.

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Figure 3 - Indexed Self-Employment in Fastest Growing Industries (2011=100)



180

140

160

120

100

170

130

150

110

902011 2013 20162012 2014 2015

Trans & Whsg

Food & Hotel

Utilities

Wholesale Trade

Ed Svcs

Retail Trade

Arts, Ent., & Recr

Pro., Sci. & Tech

Total-All Sectors

Some industries have experienced little growth in the number of self-employed workers in recent years, or outright de-

clines. Mining experienced the most severe contraction as energy prices fell sharply in the middle of the 2011-2016 study

period. The decrease in self-employed workers in Health Care and Social Assistance appears to be driven by a broad trend

of consolidation in the aftermath of the Affordable Care Act a few years ago. In Information, recent volatility in the num-

ber of self-employed workers may be due to a transformation within this broad sector from one dominated by traditional

media to one that is increasingly digital and high tech in nature.

Figure 4 - Indexed Self-Employment in Slowest Growing Industries (2011=100)

110

70

90

100

60

80

2011 2013 20162012 2014 2015

Total-All Sectors

Finance and Insurance

Real Est. & Rental

Construction

Information

Other Services

Manufacturing

Admin. Svcs

Agriculture

Health Care

Mining

ECO

NO

MY

WH

ITE

PAPE

R S

ERIE

S

14

Understanding these nuances will be valuable to local leaders in developing effective economic development policies

and support programs. Because economic development resources are scarce, programs should be evaluated a priori

to ensure that they complement each other and don’t compete with goals of other programs or squander resources.

For example, broad policies that support the small business community somewhat loosely or imprecisely may sound

appealing and may preserve, if not increase, the number of home-grown establishments in the Inland Empire, but as

this analysis has demonstrated, only a handful of industries can be targeted if the goal is to promote small business and

foster local job opportunities.

It’s not enough to simply understand the number of small businesses in the region and the industries in which they op-

erate. Local leaders must also recognize which businesses and industries are more likely to meet a particular policy goal

and which are not. In turn, this requires an understanding of which industries have characteristics that are conducive to

a given goal, the trends within a given industry that may influence attainment of that goal, and finally, external forces

(for example, global competition) that play a role over which local government has no control.

Conclusion

This analysis clearly illustrates that businesses were being established in the Inland Empire at a rate close to that of

business establishment in California during the period of analysis from 2011 to 2016. While Small and Very Small

businesses accounted for the vast majority of growth in establishments in the region, their contributions to job

growth were small relative to Medium and Large businesses. That said, the industries that experienced the largest

increases in Small business establishments, as well as self-employed workers, tend to generally favor smaller sized

firms. This may be due to inherent characteristics in certain industries such as low entry costs that make it easy to

start up a business, minimal requirements for capital and land, and possibly organizational and efficiency hurdles

that make it difficult to operate at a large scale.

The UC Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Fore-

casting and Development opened its doors in October 2015 and

represents a major economic research initiative in one of California’s

most vital growth regions. The Center produces a wide variety of

research both independently and in collaboration with academic,

business, and government partners. Research products include

monthly employment analyses, quarterly regional economic fore-

casts, a quarterly business activity index, a white paper series, and a

major regional economic forecast conference, hosted annually.

About the Author

Robert Kleinhenz is Economist and Executive Director of Research at the UC Riverside School of Business Cen-

ter for Economic Forecasting and Development and one of California’s leading economists. Dr. Kleinhenz is a

much sought-after specialist for his deep knowledge of the California and U.S. economies and their industries.

Tapping nearly 30 years of experience in analyzing the national and state economies, as well as the economies

of California’s many diverse regions, he oversees economic research and public policy analysis at the Center.

He is also Executive Director of Research at Beacon Economics LLC.Robert Kleinhenz

About the Center forEconomic Forecastingand Development

www.UCREconomicForecast.org | [email protected]

small businesses and the employed in the inland …...in the inland empire, very small and small...

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