socio-economic reference scenarios: introduction and scenario software (polestar and weap) thomas e....
TRANSCRIPT
Socio-economic reference scenarios:
Introduction and scenario software (PoleStar and
WEAP)Thomas E. Downing
Stockholm Environment Institute
Oxford
Overview
• Oh Scenario, oh scenario, what are you trying to tell us?
• Flexible scaling: PoleStar
• Water catchments: WEAP
• What is a benchmark study?
Scenarios: thinking about the future
• Why use a scenario?– Everyone else is doing it (or, we need to be
consistent)– My stakeholders told me to (or, they have
reference scenarios that are part of existing decision making)
– To gain insight into indeterminate futures (or, to examine the interactions between local resource management and global climate change)
Top down
• Lots of options:– SRES– World Water– Business and trade councils– Second World Food Council– WHO projections
• Useful if:– Coping is a boundary condition imposed by external
structures– Local decision makers use them– You don’t have time to do anything else
Bottom up
• Also, lots of options:– Local development plans– Local Agenda 21– Environment action plans– Participatory visions (e.g., WRI 2020 project)
• Useful if:– Coping is an emergent property of a multi-actor
system– Stakeholders are keen– You want to explore specific, local issues
Scenario software
• Integrated assessment models– Large, more feedbacks, aggregate regions
• Image, Targets
• Scenario accounting database– Varied scales, some consistency checks, user
input of key variables• Polestar, WEAP
• SEI Global Scenario Group• www.seib.org• System manual, tutorials, project reports
Polestar
Polestar Main Menu* Multiple sectors* Current vs scenario* Indicators tracking targets
•Regional disaggregation—world, country, regions…•Household types—urban, rural…•Sectoral detail—crops, energy sources…
WEAPWEAP
What is a benchmark study?
• International consistency with IPCC: choose one SRES benchmark
• International sectoral scenarios: Global Water Forum?
• National development planning: is there a reference scenario?
• DIY: build one or two with stakeholders– Seed with a general storyline– Stakeholders– Indicators– Consistency