solar in the uk an update
TRANSCRIPT
Solar in the UK – An update
October 2013 for Rushlight
What I will cover
• Who we are
• Solar becoming reality
• UK Solar market Size
• UK large scale solar
• UK Solar forecast
Availability of Solar Energy
Solar – Mainstream? • Sir David King – the former UK
Government Chief Scientist and Economist
Lord Richard Layard calling for all Countries
to now back Solar. Their “Sunpower step
change” initiative would see 25% of the
Worlds energy from Solar by 2025.
• Solar will be cheaper than any fossil fuel
by 2025
• Now Big Oil, Shell, says Solar will
dominate the Global energy industry by
2100 (37.7% of the market) in their “New
Lens” Report, Oceans Scenario
• Secondary Finance market has a large
appetite for solar revenue streams. In
particular pension funds
PV is : • A reliable source of energy generation
• Has ample natural resource
• Proven components – 25 years or more field proven generation
• Crystalline Silicon is the mainstream technology choice
• Supporting EU and UK incentives are driving demand
• As volumes are rising, prices are falling – 80% over 3 yrs
• Solar has now become a global industry
• Investment returns are attractive (if you have enough sunshine)
• Professional PV projects and developers have ready access to finance
• Has reached 100GW world-wide
• Can achieve scale very quickly
• Despite reductions in subsidy IRR’s remain attractive across most segments
Market Size UK
Small
Large
From 26MW installed by April 2010 the UK
has installed 2,500MW (2.5GW) a 100 fold
increase.
The breakdown of this total is 1.9GW of
“small” (less than 50kW projects) and
0.6GW of “large” (generally Large
Buildings and Solar Parks)
Government support from:
Feed in Tariff for systems less than 5MW
Renewable Obligation for systems over
5MW
Objective 22GW installed by 2020
Residential Market Size
The residential segment has
recovered following the
boom and bust phase
caused by FIT adjustments
following strong market
growth.
The residential market is
now showing signs of
stabilizing at the 400 MW
annual level.
This is being driven by
individual home-owners,
social housing and new
builds.
Small Scale Market Size
400k homes
15.4p
16p EPC D
21p
Large Scale Market Size - Historic
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Q1'10 Q1'11 Q1'12 Q1'13
GW
Cumulative UK PV Demand(Quarters are Calendar Year Periods)
Rooftop Ground Mount
© NPD Solarbuzz, April 2013Adapted from European PV Markets Quarterly, April 2013Notes: Graphic shows Cumulative PV Demand. Quarters are Calendar Year periods. Includes forecast to end Q2’13 (30 June 2013)
Large-scale PV in the UK was driven
initially by FITs until mid-2012.
Since late-2012 and especially during
Q1’13, ROCs now providing
attractive ROIs.
The UK has just passed through the
2.5 GW mark for cumulative PV,
stimulated by large-scale.
ROCs are providing a stable (known)
low-risk funding mechanism to 2017.
Large-scale PV will drive UK to a
cumulative PV installed base of 3.5-
4 GW over the next 3-4 quarters.
Large Scale Market Size - Pipeline
The large-scale ground-
mount pipeline (projects at
application stage, consented
or under construction) has
grown considerably,
following the shift from FITs
to ROCs.
Over 2.7 GW of projects are
seeking to build-out over the
next 18 months.
A further GW+ of projects
are at site-screening, pre-
application status.
2%
7%
20%
13%
25%
12%
21%
UK Solar PV Large-Scale GM Pipeline
6 Oct. 2013: Total 2.7 GW
< 2.5 MW
2.5 - 5 MW
5 - 7.5 MW
7.5 - 10 MW
10 - 15 MW
15 - 20 MW
>20 MW
Source: NPD Solarbuzz UK Deal Tracker, Oct. 2013
Large Scale Market Size - Forecast
UK PV demand reached 1.9 GW
at 31 Dec. 2012.
1.04 GW of new PV was added
during the first 9 months of 2013.
Strong growth is forecast during
Q4’13 (370 MW) and Q1’14 (740
MW), with a rush to complete
large-scale projects under 1.6
ROCs/MWh.
Many of the ground-mount
projects will shift to after 1 April
2014, with project developers still
confident of adequate IRRs under
1.4 ROCs/MWh.
Source: NPD Solarbuzz European PV Market Quarterly, October 2013
0
1
2
3
4
5
Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14
UK Solar PV Demand Forecast
Cumulative GW: 31 Dec 2012 New GW: Q1'13 to Q3'13
New GW: Q4'13 New GW: Q1'14
GW
Market Projections 2013 Utility Segment
Based on current pipelines the UK can deploy 1 – 1.5GW in the next three
quarters Source Large Scale Solar UK Conference April 2013
Variables – Grid (15GW theoretical cap), Public perception (anti-wind),
Investment appetite (increased in first quarter)
Commercial Segment
On course to deliver 220MW in 2013. Driven by increased energy hedging
demands and large scale roofs (i.e. 5MW Bentley factory, Sainsbury’s roll out)
Variables – Counter party bankability, grid connections
Residential Segment
400MW in 2013 based on current run rate and accounting for seasonality of
installations. Projection based on DECC and STA figures
Variables – Green Deal connection (flagship energy saving policy), Cost of
finance (Free PV still 50% of market), Public awareness (82% in favour in
DECC poll), Social Housing (10% discounted tariff. Repealed?)
The biggest challenge
Despite 86% public approval there are forces at work to
slow down or completely stop the deployment of solar
energy in the UK.
Daily Mail headline on Solar park at Fawley
An idyll blighted by 18,000 solar panels: Seen from
the sky, the reality of alternative energy
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
2403265/An-idyll-blighted-18-000-solar-panels-Seen-sky-
reality-alternative-energy.html#ixzz2iRX0TbVu
30 acre Solar park – 5MW
3250 acre oil refinery
Can’t be seen from the ground
Key Stakeholders – further Information
Further intelligence – www.solarpowerportal.co.uk leading
web portal for news, announcements and projects
(audience 45k per month), industry’s main event Solar
Energy UK Exhibition http://uk.solarenergyevents.com/
(5,000 visitors, 160 exhibitors).
Market data – NPD Solar Buzz
Get Involved – Come to our next UK event “Large Scale
Solar UK” in April 2014.
http://largescale.solarenergyevents.com/
Thank you and special thanks to
the NPD Solar Buzz
David Owen
CEO
Solar Media Ltd
+44 (0) 20 7871 0122
Follow me @solarchampion subscribe to news at www.solarpowerportal.co.uk