solar pv · 2017. 11. 28. · solar photovoltaics global market overview fastest growing...
TRANSCRIPT
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Renewable Energy Market Perspectives:
Solar PV
Dr Jeremy Leggett Chairman, Solarcentury
REVISION 2012
9 March, Tokyo
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Slough, UK
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Slough, UK
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Slough, UK
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MA
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Solar Photovoltaics Global Market Overview
Fastest growing power-generation technology, up 72% in 2110 (c. 17GW)
2010 capacity 7x up on 2005 capacity
Solar PV, existing world capacity 1996 -2010
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6
PV MARKET 2000-2011 - EU SHARE
1,500 1,800 2,300 2,800 4,000
5,400 7,000
9,500
15,700
22,900
39,700
67,500
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10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
PV cumulative capacity
EU ROW
27.2
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PV MARKET 2011 (data mid february 2012)
2011 added 2011 Cumulative
Italy 9,300 12,800
Germany 7,500 24,700
China 2,200 3,100
USA 1,600 4,200
France 1,600 2,600
Japan 1,300 4,900
UK 860 970
Australia 770 1300
Belgium 600 1,600
Spain 400 4,200
RoE + RoW 2,670 8,230
Total MW 28,800 68,600
Italian market boomed, in an unsustainable way. Behind Italy and Germany, no large sustainable market exist so far in Europe France and Spain are constrained Outside EU, China has taken the first place, with US and JP following. More and more new markets but not mature yet.
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Cambridgeshire, UK
Cornwall, UK
Oxfordshire, UK
Bari, Italy
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P&G, Germany
Birmingham
Eden Centre, Cornwall, UK
Gazeley, Spain
Berlin
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EnergyRoof for pitched roofs
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UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA Yorkshire, UK
Yorkshire
Pyrenees
London
Maidenhead
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CGI of Blackfriars, London: world’s largest solar bridge
Eden Centre, Cornwall
CIS Tower, Manchester
Derby Quad, Derby
London Borough of Hackney
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Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
The technical potential of renewable energy technologies
to supply energy services exceeds current demands.
The technical potential of RE technologies to supply energy
services greatly exceeds current demands
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Essex, UK
35% 140 South-facing roofs only
116% 460 All building-mounted
% UK
electricity
TWh per
year
Resource potential for UK solar electricity generation on buildings
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4.6 TW solar
40%
5.8 TW wind
51%
1.3 TW
water
9%
5.8 TW
The potential in principle in the 11.5 TW world of 2030
3.8 m turbines (@ 5MW)
720,000 wave converters (@ 750 kW)
490,000 tidal turbines (@ 1MW)
5,350 geothermal plants (@ 100 MW)
900 HEP plants (@1.3 GW ….70% existing)
49,000 CSP plants (@ 300 MW)
40,000 PV plants (@300 MW)
1.7 bn PV rooftops (@ 3 kW)
Source: Jacobson & Delucchi, Scientific American, October 2009
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RE growth has been increasing rapidly in recent years.
140 GW of new RE power
plant capacity was built in
2008-2009.
This equals 47% of all
power plants built during
that period.
RE capacity has been speeding up in recent years
140 GW of new RE
plant built 2008-2009
= 47% of all new
power capacity in that
period
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
…especially PV
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17
New installed and decommissioned capacity in 2011 (EU)
Source: EPIA / EWEA
21,500
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Business as usual is out of the question
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
RE costs have mostly been declining over time and this trend can be expected to continue
RE costs have declined in the past and further declines
can be expected in the future.
Source: IPCC SRREN 2011
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Business as usual is out of the question
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Demand for energy services is increasing.
GHG emissions resulting from the provision of energy services contribute
significantly to the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Source: IPCC SRREN 2011
RE costs are still higher than existing energy prices,
but in various settings RE is already competitive.RE levelized costs are still higher than most conventional energy but in various settings RE is already competitive
Source: IPCC SRREN 2011
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“The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well. …..Our message to government and businesses is clear. Act. …..Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did.”
5 Chairmen and CEOs from a cross section of UK industry
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www.jeremyleggett.net
Twitter: @JeremyLeggett
www.solarcentury.com
www.SolarAid.org
www.peakoiltaskforce.net
Thank you
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.jeremyleggett.nethttp://www.solarcentury.comhttp://www.SolarAid.orghttp://www.peakoiltaskforce.net