1. Potential for increasing the role of renewables in Mekong power supply (MK14) CPWF Mekong Forum Session 12, 20 November 2013Solar PV in Vietnam: Power sector benefits, costs and policy Nguyen Quoc Khanh26.11.13Seite 1 1 Page

2. Content 1. Solar PV for commercial buildings: power sector benefits 2. Potential of solar PV development in commercial buildings 3. Economics of building solar PV and the proposed supporting mechanism 4. Volatility of solar PV 5. Prospect for solar PV applications 6. Summary of policy options for solar PV26.11.13Seite 2 2 Page 3. Solar PV in commercial buildings: Power sector benefits26.11.13Seite 3 3 Page 4. Correlation between solar PV output and building load demand High correlation between solar PV and building load demand which is characterized by cooling demandThe difference happens after 5:00 pm when solar PV stops generating power while the building is still in operation Solar PV could be installed on building rooftop to meet its demand Highly relevant for the south where solar radiation is quite stable throughout the year26.11.13Seite 4 4 Page 5. Benefits to the power sector Save transmission and distribution cost Reduce transmission and distribution losses Avoid the need for high cost power generationPower can be produced at the users using e.g., solar PV26.11.13Seite 5 5 Page 6. National load curve in Viet Nam National: 2 peaks Morning peak: 10-11am Evening peak: 18-19 pmThe South: 2 peaks Morning peak: 10 am Afternoon peak: 15 pm140001200010000MW800060004000The South load curve contributes 50-55% to the national load.20002009 Trung Ngy LV2009 Nam Ngy LV23:0022:0021:0020:0019:0018:0017:0016:0015:0014:0013:0012:0011:0010:009:008:007:006:005:004:003:002:001:000:0002009 Bc Ngy LV26.11.13Seite 6 6 Page 7. Potential of solar PV development in commercial buildings in Viet Nam26.11.13Seite 7 7 Page 8. Potential of solar PV development for hotels in Ho Chi Minh city (demand side) Overlay typical solar PV production curve to typical load curve of HotelsAdjust solar PV electrical generation capacity so that the peak load section of the hotels load curve is minimised.MW 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0Typical load curve of hotels in HCM city30.0Installable capacity of solar PV in hotels in HCM city25.0 20.0Load curve of hotels in HCM city with solar PV15.0Solar PV potential (demand side): 47 MW10.0 5.0 0.0 1357911 13 15 17 19 21 2326.11.13Seite 8 8 Page 9. Potential of solar PV development for office buildings in Ho Chi Minh city (demand side) Overlay typical solar PV production curve to typical load curve of office buildingsAdjust solar PV electrical generation capacity so that the peak load section of the office buildings load curve is minimised.60.0 50.0 Typical load curve of office building in HCM city40.0 30.0Installable capacity of solar PV in office buildings in HCM city20.0Solar PV potential (demand side): 66 MWLoad curve of office buildings in HCM city with solar PV10.0 0.0 135791113151719212326.11.13Seite 9 9 Page 10. Available rooftop area for installing solar PV system sufficient? Total floor area: 29,000 m2 Roof area: ~ 2000 m2-> able to accommodate 250 kWp solar PV system Less than optimal solar PV capacity: 1.5 MWpDevelop ground mounted Develop ground mounted solar PV solar PV Note: Metropolitan building, TP HCM Figure: ground mounted solar PV at Bangchak, Attuthaya, Thailand 26.11.13Seite 1010 Page 11. Potential of ground mounted solar PV Selection criteria Solar radiation: 5 kWh/m2/day Suitable areas: Waste land with flat topography and with road and grid, close to load centers Distance from road: 2 km Distance from electrical grid: 5 km Land slope: 5o GIS assisted approach Mainly concentrate in the southern regionTotal suitable area identified: 441 km2 , able to accommodate 22,000 MWp Ninh Thuan has the greatest potential of approx 4,600 MWp 26.11.13Seite 1111 Page 12. Economics of solar PV and the proposed supporting mechanism26.11.13Seite 1212 Page 13. Economics of solar PV Economics of solar PV are largely determined by 2 main variables: Investment cost Power output26.11.13Seite 1313 Page 14. Specific investment costSource: http://www.solarserver.com/service/pvx-spotmarket-price-index-solar-pv-modules.htmlSource: http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/preisindex Specific investment cost: 2,0 $/Wp Solar module: 0,7 $/Wp Inverter: 0,3 $/Wp Others: 1,0 $/Wp 26.11.13Seite 1414 Page 15. Power output and the levelized cost Power output depends on solar radiation, solar PV types and the tilted angle and direction of the solar panel installation Reference values Full load hours: 1500 hours/year, or Capacity factor: 17%Cost: 17,65 $ cent/kWh or 3.795 /kWh26.11.13Seite 1515 Page 16. Value of solar PV: power system avoided cost versus user avoided cost Electrical selling price for commercial customers in 2012 (/kWh)Avoided cost tariff in 2012 Dry seasonWet seasonPeak hourNorm al hourOff peakPeak hourNor mal hourOff peakLeftov er power619 589 638596 583 629554 551 596596 549 583557 538 574538 533 559269 267 279Energy cost (/kWh) Northern region Central region Southern region Capacity cost (/kWh)+ Peak3,715+ Normal2,177+ Off-peak1,3431,805Source: Decision No.06/Q-TL dated 19/01/2012 Electricity Regulatory Authority of VietnamWet Season: from July 1st to October 31st Dry season: from Nov 1st to June 31stAverage buying price: 928 /kWh