solar pv success of germany and chances for vietnam

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EEnergy

Solar energy in the past decade

A German success story and chances for Vietnam

www.renewables-made-in-germany.com


OutlineOutline

Part one: Technical options and potentialp pSolar energy systemsPotential and current utilization of of solar technology

P S l i GPart two: Solar energy usage in GermanyBy which mean did Germany rapidly increase solar energy use?

Part three: Solar energ sage in VietnamPart three: Solar energy usage in VietnamSuccess stories for implementing ‚solar home systems‘ Role of additional funding such as CDM revenuesRole of additional funding such as CDM revenues

Part four: Examples of solar installations


The physical potential of renewable energiesThe physical potential of renewable energies


Average Annual Global Solar InsolationAverage Annual Global Solar Insolation

kWh/m2/day

NASA, 2010Germany Vietnam


Main terrestrial solar electricity market segmentsMain terrestrial solar electricity market segments

ConsumerOff-Grid Industrial

On-GridOff-Grid Residential

Source: RWE SHOTT Solar 2004


Grid connected PV systemGrid connected PV system

Energetic performanceApproximate electricity generation cost


Solar Home PV system (SHS)Solar Home PV system (SHS)

Schematic view of a Solar Home System

r1

Folie 7

r1 Graphs to be replaced by Conergy systemSebastian Randig; 23.02.2010


Cumulative installed PV capactiy in EU27 and the worldCumulative installed PV capactiy in EU27 and the world


PV module price experience curve since 1976 ($/W)PV module price experience curve since 1976 ($/W)

Historical Price Experience Curve:Doubling of cumulative production reduces prices by 22%reduces prices by 22%


PV competitivenessPV competitiveness

Electricity€/kWh

ElectricityGeneratingCost for PV 0,8

1,0900 h/a:

0,60 €/kWh

and utilityprices 0,6

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

Photovoltaics

0,4

Utility peak power

Bulk power 0,0

0,2

p ,1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Source: RWE SHOTT Solar 2004


Part two: Solar energy usage in Germany


Energy in GermanyEnergy in Germany

Electricity generation in Germany TWh

German

600,00

700,00TWh energy

market isdominatedby thermal

400,00

500,00Other (TWh)

Renewables (TWh)

energysources.Renewableenergy

200,00

300,00Nuclear (TWh)

Gas (TWh)

Oil (TWh)

energygenerationslowlyincreasingits market

0,00

100,00Coal (TWh)

its marketshare.

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

European Comission, 2009


Development of Renewables in GermanyDevelopment of Renewables in Germany

Photovoltaics makes up 1.7% of renewable energy source.Solar thermal energy makes up 1.8% renewable energy source.Policies have a significant effect on renewable energy development.New EEG policy (2004) has had the biggest impact on the solar energy development.

BMU, 2009

gy p


Feed in TariffsFeed-in Tariffs

A feed-in tariff is a policy mechanism designed to encourage the adoption of renewable energy sourcesof renewable energy sources.1990- Electricity Feed Act (StrEG) : Law requiring utilities providers to

purchase electricity generated from renewable sources for a set rate.2000- Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) : Reworked law, which set

individual rates based on energy source and project size. Gave 20 year guarantees but rates decline over timeyear guarantees, but rates decline over time.

2004- new EEG : Increase in the rates available within the EEG law.

BMU, 2009


Solar PV installations since since 1990 in GermanySolar PV installations since since 1990 in Germany

Installed capacity & energy supply from photovoltaic installations in Germany

BMU, 2009


Solar Energy Situation in GermanySolar Energy Situation in Germany

Photovoltaics:4TWh produced in 2008 (29% increase from 2007)

Solar Collectors210,000 plants with 1.9 million m2 of collectors i t ll d (d bl 2007)installed (double 2007)


Effect of Feed in TariffsEffect of Feed-in Tariffs

Feed-in and payment under the StrEG & EEG

Strong correlation between fees and renewable energy production.EEG li f l h S EG liEEG policy more sucessful than StrEG policy.

BMU, 2009


Market IndicatorsMarket Indicators

300000

Jobs in Renewable Energy Sectors in Germany Renewable jobs increased 73%.Solar jobs increased 196%

150000

200000

250000

Renewables

Solar jobs increased 196%.74400 jobs in solar in 2008 (25100 in 2004)

0

50000

100000

150000 Renewables

Solar

Hydropower

Biomass electricity

Turnover from the Construction of Renewable Energy Powered Installations in Germany, 2008

0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

y p

Wind energy

Geothermal

Biomass heat

T t l l h d t f €7650 illSolar thermal

Photovoltaics

Total solar had turnover of €7650mill in 2008.58.4% of renewable market.

BMU, 2009


Part three: Solar energy usage in Vietnam


Electricity Use in VietnamElectricity Use in Vietnam

Total Electricity Net Generation in Vietnam (GWh)

Vietnam:Production around 30

40

50

60

60GWhProduction is growingrapidly.

0

10

20

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008rapidly.Vietnam’s per capita energy consumption is one of the lowest in Asia

Total Electricity Net Consumption per Capita (MWh/Capita)

one of the lowest in Asia and only about one 10th of the consumption in Germany. 3

4567

China

GermanyGermany.

EIA, 2010012

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Thailand

Vietnam


Electricity Mix in VietnamElectricity Mix in Vietnam

ElectricityElectricity Generation by Fuel Type (GWh)generationdominated byhydro andth lthermal generation.Very little so

ll d “called „new“ renewableelectricity

d dproduced.

EIA, 2010Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro


Solar Potential in VietnamSolar Potential in Vietnam

a.com

7

Average Solar Radiation, kWh/m2/day

.terragalleria

5

6

7

www.

2

3

4Da Nang

Ha Noi

Nha Trang

Ho Chi Minh City

0

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Ho Chi Minh City

Month

Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau und Stadtentwicklung, 2010


Solar Use in VietnamSolar Use in Vietnam

Solar Electricity:yTotal installed Photovoltaics is around 2MWp.Solar photovoltaics has been expanding since 1994.

Solar Heating:Solar water heating has been developing since 1990.Increased growth since 1998, especially in Ho Chi Minh City.Competition within the industry is growingCompetition within the industry is growing.Many parts of hot water systems are imported, mostly from China.

Hiep, 2009


Case study Solar Home System Example from BangladeshCase study Solar Home System- Example from Bangladesh

• Bangladesh receives an average daily solar radiation of 4–6.5 kWh/m2

• ‘Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Development (RERED) Programme Government encouraging the use ofRural Electrification and Renewable Energy Development (RERED) Programme. Government encouraging the use of off‐grid renewable energy technologies, such as solar home systems.

• The project envisages installing 929,169 SHSs all across Bangladesh between 2007 and 2015.

• Solar Home Systems (SHSs) are highly decentralized and particularly suitable for remote, inaccessible areas.

• Since 1996, penetration of SHSs increased rapidly, mainly due to the efforts of Grameen Shakti, which sells PV systems on credit to rural households through its extensive network. Several other NGOs such as a CMES and BRAC are also engaged in promoting PV technology.

Average Solar Radiation kWh/m2/day

5

6

7

Average Solar Radiation, kWh/m2/day

Coo

pera

tion

k

1

2

3

4 Ha Noi

Ho Chi Minh City

Bangladesh (low)

Bangladesh (high)–B

angl

ades

h C

ickl

ungs

bank

0

1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Bangladesh (high)

Ger

man

–kf

w-e

ntw


Solar home systemsSolar home systems

zept

solk

onz

ptso

lkon

zep


The Clean Development MechanismThe Clean Development Mechanism

18 solar projects registered to date.p j g2518 kCERs expected by 2010 in the CDM pipeline equilivent to 2 518 000 tonnes CO2pipeline, equilivent to 2,518,000 tonnes CO2

…. But from economic perspective the profit contribution of CERs generated by Solar PV g yremains marginal

CDM Pipeline


Estimated Range of CDM Transaction CostsEstimated Range of CDM Transaction Costs

Stage Low HighStage Low High

Pre-development 5,000 15,000

PDD 15 000 50 000PDD 15,000 50,000

DNA Approval 0 5,000

Validation 10 000 40 000Validation 10,000 40,000

Legal/Contracting 10,000 20,000

T t l 40 000 130 000Total 40,000 130,000

Source: UNEP 2006


Impact of Transaction Costs on Ren Energy Projects Impact of Transaction Costs on Ren. Energy Projects

Source: UNEP 2006

Source: UNEP 2006


Part four: Examples of solar installations


Roof top installationsRoof top installationsS

chüc

o

rG

ehrli

che


Building integratedBuilding integrated

her

Geh

rlich


Greenfield installation Greenfield installation

rG

ehrli

che


PV SoundlessPV Soundless

rG

ehrli

che


Monocrystaline SystemMonocrystaline System

a AG

Sol

ea

Mudule Efficiency of up to25% has been reached.System Efficiency of above10% is realistically reachedEnergy payback period 1-2 years. (Science Daily 2009)


1 axis solar tracker 1-axis solar tracker

40% more energy yieldGm

bH

40% more energy yieldcompared to fixedinstallationsLow power consumption ~tri

x S

olar

GLow power consumption ~ 1.5kWh/year

Con

cent

renz

Lor


2 axis solar tracker2-axis solar tracker

BSW

Ger

man

yse

arch

in G

Res


Thin film installations Thin-film installations

mki

ngal

pha.

com

Commercial installations canhave efficiency

Seek have efficiency

around 11%.

obal

.net

Gre

enis

glo


Solar concentratorSolar concentrator

openfarmtech

olar

conc

entri

x-so

ntrix

-sol

ar

c

ent

conc

en

met

aeffi

cie


Solar towersSolar towers

ikr

Fl

ges

Am

t

ost

Aus

wär

tig

shin

gton

Po

Was


Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Sebastian RandigGerman section of International Solar Energy Societygy yDeutsche Gesellschaft für Sonnenenergie e.V. [email protected]. www.dgs.de/www. www.dgs.de/

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