southern lakes wildfire threat assessment model november 2014

Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

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Southern LakesWildfire Threat

Assessment Model

November 2014

Wildfire Threat Assessment Model? Determine the potential impact of fires on a community. Account for the effect of management actions on that threat. Identify high risk landscape units. Present options to reduce the probability of large, intense wildfires. Assist in pre-suppression planning. Help create informative, educational products for mitigation programs.

Wildfire Threat Assessment Model

McGregor Model Forest

Model Inputs1. Risk of Ignition

lightning-caused fire occurrence human-caused fire occurrence

2. Values at Risk population density Other infrastructure

3. Suppression Capability driving time from IA base Distance from air tanker base Distance from road Steepness of slope

4. Fire Behaviour Potential Head fire intensity Rate of spread Crown fraction burned

(Fuel Type)

1. Risk of Ignition lightning-caused fire occurrence human-caused fire occurrence

2. Values at Risk population density Other infrastructure

3. Suppression Capability driving time from IA base Distance from air tanker base Distance from road Steepness of slope

4. Fire Behaviour Potential Head fire intensity Rate of spread Crown fraction burned

Page 5: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Study Area

• Greater Whitehorse – Southern Lakes

• 4800 km2 or 480,000 ha

Includes:• Deep Creek• Takhini River• Fish Lake• Lorne Mtn/Goldenhorn• Annie Lake Road• Carcross• Tagish subdn’s• Jakes Corner• Marsh Lake subdn’s

Page 6: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Risk of Ignition

• Ignition patterns and densities• Not enough lightning?

Page 7: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

FBP Fuels

Page 8: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

FBP Fuels(Fire behaviour potential)

• proxy for Head Fire Intensity

Page 9: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Elevation• Above 1400m = non-fuel • Above 1250m = D1/D2 (shrub)

Page 10: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Elevation• 1200m mask

Page 11: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

• Suppression Capability Input• Primary and secondary roads• Tertiary 2 wheel drive

Proximity to roads

Page 12: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Driving time from attack base

• EMS response model• 3 minutes and 9 minutes

• Suppression Capability input• Using Network Analysis

Page 13: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

• Suppression Capability input• Distance from air attack

base in kilometres

Air Attack Response Time

Page 14: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Slope• Suppression Capability input• Flat = green• Steep = red

Page 15: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Slope – detailGrey Mountain

• Flat = green• Steep = red

Page 16: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

• Population density as a proxy for Values at Risk

• Lot parcels used to determine population

Population Density

Page 17: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Population Density• Higher population density= more

values at risk

Page 18: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Ground Response• Further away from Hanger D = more risk

RoadClass SpeedLimit (km/h)

Expressway / Highway 90

Arterial 70

Alleyway / Lane 20

All Others 50

Hanger D

Page 19: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Ground Response• Further away from Hanger D = more risk

Page 20: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Ground Response – can we combine?

Page 21: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Other Inputs

• Weather: Percentile scenarios based upon historical data

• Values at Risk: Critical Infrastructure and other significant values

• Burn P-3 as the Fire Behaviour Potential input

Page 22: Southern Lakes Wildfire Threat Assessment Model November 2014

Key Components of Wildfire Risk Assessment

Wildfire Risk

(LOC)

Wildfire Risk

(LOC)

Fire Effects Index

Probability of Fire

Occurrence

Fire Behaviour

Fire Suppression Effectiveness

Values Impacted

Rating

Suppression Difficulty

Rating

Fire Occurrence

Areas

Surface Fuels

Topography

Canopy Closure

Historic Fire Sizes

Historic Protection

Organization

Transportation and

Infrastructure

Wildland Urban

Interface

Production Forests

Fuel Type

Topography

Historic Fire Locations

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