space research institute short-term space weather forecast a.a. petrukovich space research...

Space Research InstituteSpace Research Institute

Short-term space weather forecast

A.A. Petrukovich

Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences

with contributions from G.N.Zastenker, V.M.Linkin, N.A.Eismont

What is space weather ?

Why is it important ?

Short-term forecast- concept - quality- real-time system


Sun is a very stable starSun is a very stable star

Total solar energy fluxTotal solar energy flux - - SOLAR CONSTANTSOLAR CONSTANT 1.5 1.5 kWkW per per 1 1 sqsq. . mm..


active sunactive sun: : ~0.1% solar ~0.1% solar constantconstant

cycle cycle with 11 (22) yearswith 11 (22) years

energy from heat is accumulatedenergy from heat is accumulated

in extra magnetic field and releasedin extra magnetic field and released

sun spotssun spots

solar flaressolar flares

coronal mass ejectionscoronal mass ejections

geomagnetic stormsgeomagnetic storms


3. Subsequent coronal mass ejection:

1. Sunspot – signature of extra magnetic energy

2. Solar flare in soft X rays – explosive release of energy


Summary of solar emissions

1. Solar UV - variable

2. Solar X-ray - sporadic from solar flares

3. Solar cosmic rays - sporadic from solar flares

4. Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field

- permanent flow thermal expansion of solar plasma

- magnetic clouds sporadic from solar flares


Solar wind & interplanetary magnetic field interactwith Earth magnetic field

Steady solar wind flow create magnetosphere from the pure dipole

Everyday interplanetary variations create geomagnetic activityenergy from solar wind powers up magnetospheric dynamics

Magnetic clouds – anomalously intense solar wind and IMF create geomagnetic storms


Earth is inside an electromagnetic system:energy of geomagnetic storm is measured by megatons of TNT

All sorts of radiation andElectromagnetic influence:

Radio, satellites, …, humans


Spacecraft effects

Electrostatic discharge on spacecraft surface

Radiation damage to electronics

Radiation threat to crews,Especially future interplanetary flights


Telecommunications

In XIX cent. space weather effects were observed in wire telegraph lines

short wave telecom

radars

space telecom

GPS/GLONASS


Effects on climate and biosphere ?Effects on climate and biosphere ?


Summary of space weather

Space weather is due to solar activityand plasma environment of Earth

Sporadic intensifications “storms” are due to solar flares and magnetic clouds in solar wind affecting Earth

Space weather is basically “one for all” – storms are global

Monitoring and forecast are important for many technical systems in space and on ground


Summary of forecast

long term (months and years) – cycle progression time-series analysis no hurry

mid term (weeks) – variability due to rotation (27 days) “recurrence”no hurry

flare warning (days & hours) – probability of a flare in given sunspot complexity analysis real time

short term (days & hours) – probability of magnetic storm after flare registration

propagation analysis real time

short term (hours) – storm development based on near Earth solar wind time series analysis real time

Physics-based models (requiring HPC) are not competitive currentlybut will be ?

Our interest


Monitoring of interplanetary medium in front of the Earth is currently the only tool to provide reliable quantitative, but short-term, space weather forecast.

A L1 Sun-Earth libration point, 1.5 mln km from the Earth, is a convenient place with the lead time of a forecast of about 1 hour.

1 hour forecast >90% reliability

Solar light: 300 000 km/s: 8 min 3-day forecast 50% reliability

Solar stormSolar wind: 400-1000 km/s: 1.5-3 days Geomagnetic

storm

Libration point 1.5 mln km

150 mln km

solar wind-based short-term forecast: IKI studies


reliability of the L1 monitor due to natural variability of solar wind

measurements of

solar wind and IMF

(1996-1999)

Wind (distant)

and

Interball (near-Earth)


probability of different (by 15%) measurements of energy input ~VB2 to the magnetosphere

Petrukovich et al, JASTP, 2001.

magnetic storm (> 1016 J)

predictions are reliable,

while

substorm predictions

are uncertain.

! role of small variations

and discontinuities


Geomagnetic indices AL and Kp (measures of magnetic fluctuations) are used as general indicators

Future or current indices might be estimated with real-time solar wind.

the main problem:significant scatter of

index(uncertainty of

magnetospheric dynamics)

with respect to solar wind input

solar wind driving function

~ VBns


ACE L1 monitoring

available in INTERNET


Unreliable measurements (marked by team)

error codes ACE in 2001

IMF 5.5% SW 20%

intervals > 20 min long

IMF 3.9%SW 3.9%IMF & SW 2.1%

major reserve: accept data even if it is flagged

ACE L1 monitoring

Internet availability errors add less than 1 %


ACE data physical quality: real-time and final data compared

IMF clock anglewrong by 20-50o

in 1997-2004!

30% error in Bns!

ACE L1 monitoring

2001

corrected only in 2004


NOAA/SEC

download& check

Activity estimates

Indexmodels

Space Research Institute

Format &delivery

Consumer Blocks

Inte

rne

t

• download• data quality check and filling gaps• advection time to Earth

IKI solar wind forecast system

• activity estimates• specific predictions• product delivery


Overview plots for “now” and +1 hour

Examples of general products

IKI solar wind forecast system

http://www.iki.rssi.ru/forecastsince 1999


1 hour forecast >90% reliability

solar stormsolar wind: 400-1000 km/s: 1.5-3 days geomagnetic

storm

Libration point 1.5 mln km

3 mln km from Earth

2 hour forecast

Earth gravity larger than

solar gravity

solar gravity in balance with

Earth gravity

solar gravity in balance with Earth gravity +light pressure

future solar wind monitors

using micro satellites placing monitor further away from the Earth

Not so far to preserve forecast quality Solar sail is the only solution to keep spacecraft with Earth


hardware

instruments:Magnetometersolar wind sensorCosmic ray sensor

total data flow ~100 bits/sec. Total scientific payload weight 2 kg

future solar wind monitors

"standing point" at 3 mln km

requires a spacecraft ~ 25 kg with solar sail ~1000 sq m or ~ 150 kg with solar sail ~6000 sq m

sails are made with thin polymer films

initial Solar sail deployment tests are underway world wide.


Solar min in 2007

A 2004 forecast

What about a new solar cycle ?

A 2007 forecast

Solar min In 2008

A 2009 forecast

a very deepsolar minin 2009

Solar wind now on minimum

level in 50 years of observations

Grand solar minima


Earth as space ecosystem

Life depends on Space:Earth climate driven by constant solar energy



Solar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactions



Galaxy climate: local interstellar medium and galactic cosmic rays


Solar system climate: solar activity, solar evolution, orbit interactions



Short-term forecast is an important part of space weather services and is relatively novel technology

Real-time data analysis tools (image and time series processing)are necessary

Internet technologies are vital to create and use such forecast

•Proper data conditioning is an important task

CONCLUSIONS

Thank you !

space research institute short-term space weather forecast a.a. petrukovich space research...

Documents

solar activity

space research institute

solar wind powers

intense solar wind

earth space weather

solar constant cycle

space weather effects

solar xray