Space Science and the Space Science and the Engines of ChangeEngines of Change

Keith Mason

CEO

UK Science & Technology Facilities Council

Astronomy as a change engineAstronomy as a change engine

• Human kind is instinctively curious about the world and their place in it

• Astronomy, the oldest science, is accessible to all– Discoveries change people’s perceptions of their place in the

Universe and their relationship to each other– Generally a ‘non-threatening’ science– Astronomy as ‘entertainment’!

• Astronomy Inspires!– People who are inspired can achieve things otherwise beyond

them!

• Drives technological capability– Wider benefit to society

• Drivers not dissimilar to ‘exploration’!

Way forwardWay forward

• Best way to look forward is to extrapolate from the past

• So how far have we come in the last 50 years?

• What are the plans for the immediate future?

• Where might that lead?

Astronomy in 1957Astronomy in 1957

• Confined to ‘visible’ wavelengths and radio– Largest telescope 200in (5m) at Mt Palomar– Photographic plates rule!– Radio astronomy in its infancy – 250 ft fully-steerable Lovell

telescope just completed

• Debate between ‘big bang’ and ‘steady state’ cosmology

• Origin of lunar craters – volcanic or impact?• Speculation about life on Mars, oceans on Venus

Take care with ‘experts’Take care with ‘experts’

“Space Travel is bunk”

Sir Harold Spencer Jones, British Astronomer Royal, 1957,

2 weeks before launch of Sputnik 1

Lesson: History has a way of overturning even the most cherished paradigms!

1957-2007: some highlights1957-2007: some highlights• Travel to the Moon and initial exploration of major planets, comets,

asteroids• Understanding the Sun and its effect on the Earth’s environment• Detection of extra-solar planets• Discovery of super compact stars

– importance of gravitational accretion as a source of energy

• Discovery of quasars – prodigious energy understood as due to accretion onto supermassive

black hole at the centre of galaxies

• Seeing the birth of black holes• Mapping evolutionary history of stars & galaxies• Cosmic microwave background ‘Big Bang’ cosmology• Measuring the geometry of the Universe• Discovery of ‘Dark Energy’

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

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Astronomy 2007Astronomy 2007

• Discoveries in past 50 years fuelled by – access to space, – development of electronics and detector systems, – computers.

• Subject transformed compared to 1957• No let up in the pace of discovery • Even if rate of discovery lessens, still likely that

subject will take many twists and turns before 2057!

• So what is to come?

Future plansFuture plans• Consider ESA’s space science programme • Organised in decadal plans

– Horizon 2000, Horizon 2000+, Cosmic Visions 2015-2025

• Illustrative - Other nations have similar plans, and many missions likely to be realised by international collaboration to make them affordable

• So what are the prospects for the next few years?

ESA ScienceESA Science

TheThe Herschel Mission Herschel MissionTHE MISSION:ESA’s Herschel Space Observatory has the largest mirror ever built for a space telescope. At 3.5-metres in diameter the mirror will collect long-wavelength radiation from some of the coldest and most distant objects in the Universe. In addition, Herschel will be the only space observatory to cover a spectral range from the far infrared to sub-millimetre. Located at L2 (lagrangian point).

OBJECTIVES: - Study the formation of galaxies in the early universe and their subsequent evolution- Investigate the creation of stars and their interaction with the interstellar medium - Observe the chemical composition of the atmospheres and surfaces of comets, planets and satellites - Examine the molecular chemistry of the universe

2008

James Webb Space TelescopeJames Webb Space Telescope(NASA, ESA, Canadian Space Agency)(NASA, ESA, Canadian Space Agency)

• Infrared optimised successor to Hubble Space Telescope

• Mirror diameter 6.5m. Will be located at L2 (operating temperature < 50K)

• Themes:– The End of the Dark Ages:

First light and re-ionisation– Assembly of Galaxies– Birth of stars & protoplanetary

systems– Planetary Systems & the

origin of life

2013

TheThe Planck Mission Planck MissionTHE MISSION:Planck will help provide answers to one of the most

important set of questions asked in modern science - how did the Universe begin, how did it evolve to the state we observe today, and how will it continue to evolve in the future? Planck's objective is to analyse, with the highest accuracy ever achieved, the remnants of the radiation that filled the Universe immediately after the Big Bang, which we observe today as the Cosmic Microwave Background.

OBJECTIVES: - Mapping of Cosmic Microwave Background

anisotropies with improved sensitivity and angular resolution

- Determination of Hubble constant- Testing inflationary models of the early universe - Measuring amplitude of structures in Cosmic

Microwave Background

2008

GAIA: Galactic ArchaeologyGAIA: Galactic Archaeology

• Apparent shift of star position wrt background viewed from opposite sides of Earth’s orbit

– Parallax– Measure of distance

• GAIA precision 20arcsec– Measure distances at Galactic

centre to 20%– ~1 billion stars!

• Also measure velocity in 3D• Brightness, luminosity and

chemical composition• Create a 3-D structural map of the

Galaxy!Earth Orbit about Sun

2011

GAIA ObjectivesGAIA Objectives

• Trace formation history of Milky Way through galaxy mergers

• Find planets around stars out to 50 pc (10,000-50,000 planets)

• Search for brown dwarf stars

• Detect 10,000+ asteroids (including NEOs), comets etc in Solar System

• Detect 105 supernovae in distant galaxies

• Discover 5 x 105 quasars

• Test General Relativity

Gravitational Wave AstronomyGravitational Wave Astronomy

• General relativity predicts that gravitational waves propagate at the speed of light

• Ripples from distant binary stars should be detectable as minute distortions in the separations of two appropriately spaced test masses

• New field of astronomy!

The LISA MissionThe LISA Mission

THE MISSION:LISA is an ESA-NASA mission involving three spacecraft flying approximately 5 million kilometres apart in an equilateral triangle formation. Together, they act as a Michelson interferometer to measure the distortion of space caused by passing gravitational waves. Lasers in each spacecraft will be used to measure minute changes in the separation distances of free-floating masses within each spacecraft.

OBJECTIVES:

To be the first spacecraft to detect gravitational waves

Measure the properties of binary star systems in the Galaxy and beyond

Test General Relativity under extreme conditions

Search for gravitational signature of the Big Bang

2017

LISA ConceptLISA Concept

• LISA will consist of three spacecraft arranged in a triangle with sides 5m km

• Separation will be measured by interferometry of laser beams shining between the three spacecraft

• Change in separation due to gravitational waves tiny – typically 10-10 m from a Galactic binary

• Reference point (test mass) must be shielded from external buffeting by, for example, the solar wind

TheThe LISA Pathfinder Mission LISA Pathfinder Mission

THE MISSION:LISA Pathfinder will pave the way for the LISA mission by testing in flight the very concept of the gravitational wave detection: it will put two test masses in a near-perfect gravitational free-fall and control and measure their motion with unprecedented accuracy. This is achieved through state-of-the-art technology comprising the inertial sensors, the laser metrology system, the drag-free control system and an ultra-precise micro-propulsion system.

OBJECTIVES: LISA Pathfinder is to demonstrate the key technologies to be used in the future LISA mission.

2009

• Images from the X-ray Telescope on the Japan/UK/US Hinode satellite (launch Nov 2006) show turbulent solar atmosphere

• Coronal mass ejections can result in dangerous radiation levels for humans and instrumentation– Particularly if outside the

protection of the Earth’s magnetic field (e.g. Moon)

Solar StormsSolar Storms

Solar Orbiter SentinelsSolar Orbiter Sentinels

• Need to understand and predict these outbursts, and how they propagate out from the Sun

• Require data from much closer to the Sun

• Combination of ESA Solar Orbiter and NASA Sentinels to probe to 0.2 AU (i.e. inside the orbit of Mercury)

• Very hostile environment!

2015

TheThe BepiColombo Mission BepiColombo Mission

THE MISSION:BepiColombo will set off in 2013 on a journey lasting approximately 6 years. When it arrives at Mercury in August 2019, it will endure temperatures as high as 350 °C and gather data during its 1 year nominal mission from September 2019 until September 2020, with a possible 1-year extension to September 2021.

OBJECTIVES: - Origin and evolution of a planet close to the parent star - Mercury as a planet: form, interior, structure, geology, composition and craters - Mercury's vestigial atmosphere (exosphere): composition and dynamics- Mercury's magnetized envelope (magnetosphere): structure and dynamics- Origin of Mercury's magnetic field - Test of Einstein's theory of general relativity

2013

TheThe EXOMARS Mission EXOMARS Mission

• First mission in Aurora programme

• Launch in 2013

• To explore Mars in three dimensions to understand habitability, life potential and hazards to future exploration

• High mobility

• Drill for sub-surface sampling to 2m depth

• Suite of Exobiology instruments

2013

Distant TravellersDistant Travellers

• Rosetta (ESA)– Launch 2004

– Encounter with Comet 67 P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko 2014

• New Horizons (NASA)– Launch 2006

– Encounter with Pluto/Charon 2015

New Horizons

Rosetta

Io/EuropaNew Horizons

Rosetta Mars Encounter

So what about the future?So what about the future?

• 50 years is a long time in the current rapidly developing field of space science/astronomy

• Progress and direction will certainly be hijacked by ‘unknown unknowns’!– As it should be since that’s what makes it exciting!!

• However many existing/planned missions and facilities have a longevity measured in decades

• So interesting to look at people’s current aspirations as a guide to what might be done in the next decades

Aspirations for the FutureAspirations for the Future(some ideas for ESA Cosmic Visions)(some ideas for ESA Cosmic Visions)

• Early Universe & Evolution– 2nd generation gravitational wave

observatory focussed on residual radiation from the big bang – Universe at <1s

– High precision measurements of cosmic microwave background polarisation to test big bang models, inflation

– Large area, high spectral resolution X-ray observatory for studying earliest black holes and role in galaxy formation

• Dark Energy– High sensitivity surveys for distant

supernovae, gravitational lensing – distinguish Dark Energy models

• Planetary and Stellar Evolution– Infrared Interferometer: high-

resolution spectroscopy at 0.01arcsec spatial resolution, capable of resolving nearby protoplanetary disks.

– Survey of 100,000 stars for Earth-like and smaller planets, plus stellar evolution studies.

– Environments of Earth-like planets

– Molecular hydrogen explorer

• High-Energy Universe– First large-area focussing -ray

telescope: Gamma-ray bursts, supernovae, AGN, accretion disks, Galactic centre

Aspirations for the Future Aspirations for the Future (cont)(cont)

• Fundamental Physics– Accurate measurement of G and

limits on change, equivalence principle, link General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics, search for evidence of superstrings

• Magnetic Reconnection & Solar Activity

– Measure processes in Earth’s magnetosphere with fleet of 12 spacecraft at proton to electron interaction scales.

– Sample Solar wind environment very close to Sun

• Planetary Exploration– Lunar exploration & characterise

interior and cosmochemistry, sample return.

– Mars networks and sample return

– Venus Entry Probe: long-term balloon-bourne investigation plus surface samples

– Europa Exploration: characterise ice thickness and surface/interior characteristics leading to search for life in liquid subsurface oceans

– Asteroid sample return: 50-100g from surface/subsurface regolith of primitive body.

Example: Extra-Solar PlanetsExample: Extra-Solar Planets

• Over 200 planets known around other stars

• Most discovered by dynamical studies

– Wobble in parent caused by unseen companion

– Favours massive planets close to star (hot Jupiters)

• Can also be detected when they transit in front of parent star

– Need high sensitivity to detect tiny reduction in stellar light

– French-led CoRoT mission launched in 2006

– NASA Kepler 2008– Capable of detecting earth-like

rocky planets in habitable zone

Search for Life-bearing Search for Life-bearing planetsplanets

• Ultimate aim is to determine whether Earth-like planets harbour conditions for life

• Aim of Darwin/Terrestrial Planet Finder missions

• Array of spacecraft working together as one– Use Nulling interferometer

or coronograph to block out light from parent star

– Determine composition of planet’s atmosphere

Possible Headlines from 2007-2057Possible Headlines from 2007-2057• Scientists find birthplace of the first stars• Water found in Young Planetary System• Antimatter explorer prepares for launch• Astronomers find missing matter!• Astronomers find every galaxy in the Universe• Astronomers seek the first black holes• Scientists see the beginning of time• Einstein was wrong!• The road to unification finally revealed!• Spacecraft flies into the eye of a Solar hurricane• We are not alone! • When life began!• Doomed worlds• Scientists find biological activity on another Earth!• Earth’s evil twin shows us a glimpse of our future• Life, but not as we know it!

What do we need for a healthy future?What do we need for a healthy future?

Smaller, Faster, Cheaper used to be the watchwords

Smarter

With change, still makes sense, so long as we also use Faster in the sense of ‘higher velocity’

• Tendency for greater challenges to drive more complex missions– Greater cost, more extended timescales, less risk

• Harder to inspire when time between and idea and fruition measured in decades!

• Mitigation: reduce cost of access to space– Encourage turnover, accept higher risk, encourage

innovative solutions

• Positive developments:– Investment in infrastructure, for exploration– Commercial launch companies driven by private investors– Innovation & Low-cost platforms (e.g. SSTL)

Need to maintain momentumNeed to maintain momentum

Faster travelFaster travel

• Current travel time to outer planets, and even Mercury, limits progress

• Voyager 1 currently at 100 AU after 30+ years– ~0.5 lt days

• Need more efficient propulsion to effectively explore outer planets, Kuiper belt and even interstellar space– E.g. ion drive as used

recently on SMART-1

More dataMore data

• Increasingly accustomed to a high data-rate environment in science

• We have smart, capable instruments that can tackle complex problems

• But, ability to get data back from instruments in remote locations an increasing limitation– E.g. Solar Orbiter, where telemetry rate does not permit

continuous use of high speed measurements

• Need high bandwidth communications infrastructure for entire solar system– E.g. laser comms

Astronomy Access/ProtectionAstronomy Access/Protection

• Favoured sites– L2: deep space, cryogenic– L1: solar– Lunar far side: future large

infrastructure

• Need to protect environment from the outset

– Particularly crucial in radio regime– Mobile phone in the Moon would

be one of the brightest astronomical sources seen from Earth!

• More robust & available transportation infrastructure

– Maintenance & repair at L1, L2 from Lunar space ?

– Need efficient transport

Solar Deep Space

Large infrastructure

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