8/3/2019 Spearhead Research Analysis: ALLY vs ALLY - Continued

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Spearhead Analysis 29.11.11

ALLY vs ALLY Continued

Post event developments continue the event being the 26/11 attack by US/NATO

on Pakistani check posts in Salala, Mohmand Agency of FATA. From recent reports it

seems that the attack was not a quick retaliatory or preemptive strike but that it

continued for hours one and a half hours according to a Washington Post article

to six hours as described by an injured survivor. A safe bet would be two to three

hours enough to dispel the accidental or unintended or mistaken scenario andshift focus to deliberate, pre-meditated, maximum kill type of attack. This should

make the investigation by NATO simpler and quicker.

Several questions have now surfaced and each in its own way explains this attack

that without a doubt is being seen as a land mark game changing event. The first

question being asked is why there was no response by the Pakistan military if the

attack was continued over a prolonged period especially when there seem to have

been urgent messages from Pakistan asking for a cessation of the attack? Was it

because there is no satisfactory night time response capability or some other

reason? Similar questions were asked after the US raid to take out Osama. This

question is also being used to indicate that the attack was deliberate and intended

to highlight the helplessness of the Pakistan military against US incursions so as to

bring it under criticism from Pakistanis part of the get Pakistan military and ISI

series. Raymond Davis, OBL, and memo-gate are all slotted into the same category.

There is also confusion on the status of the base Shamsi Base that the US has

been asked to vacate.

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8/3/2019 Spearhead Research Analysis: ALLY vs ALLY - Continued

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The next scenario being tossed around is based on the fact that the attack was from

Afghanistans Nangarhar province the scene of a recent transition of security

responsibility to Afghan Security Forces. The idea apparently was to demonstrate

US support capability to panicky Afghan National Security Forces. These forces are

said to have asked for close support during some kind of operation in the area and

panicked when a flare was allegedly fired by the Pakistanis to see what was going

on. Also to indicate to the Pakistanis the type of post withdrawal operations that

could be conducted against them if they were to try and exploit the situation. Ascollateral it helps secure the US-Afghan Strategic Agreement and the Pentagons

future plans.

A variant of this scenario has the Taliban masterminding the event by engaging the

Afghan Security Forces in the vicinity of the Pakistani post thereby triggering their

reaction and US/NATO response. The Taliban have had a long standing desire to see

the Afghan Government Forces fighting with the Pakistan military. Yet another

variant is the desire of the Northern Alliance backed Afghan Government to see the

US attacking Pakistan whom they have repeatedly identified as the real enemy. The

Taliban are seen by some as riddled with all sorts of intelligence operatives and

therefore amenable to outside influences at a price.

These debates and speculations will continue. The usual pattern is that the event

reaches conclusion as per the plan of the stronger side and is followed by regret

and concern by the perpetrator and much chest thumping and threats by the other

side. The next phase is the speculation and analysis phase this is where we are

right now, and finally comes the post event investigation and action phase to bring

some sort of conclusion. This particular event is being seen as far too serious and

damaging to smoothly move through these transitions unless there is genuine

resolve to do this. The enduring perception is that this was a planned premeditated

attack specifically for the purpose of killing Pakistani soldiers. On the US side the

response so far is that the action to stop logistics through Pakistan will have no

impact on operations and that the drone attacks will continue. Going by postings on

the internet it seems that there is satisfaction in the US that their military has

kicked ass and the Pakistanis have got what was coming to them this is most

unfortunate and will ramp up the anti US feelings in Pakistan from anti US policy

to anti-American. Both sides need to sit back and decide on the end result they

want in the relationship it will then be easier to plan and orchestrate movement

to that end result. Allowing the media and public opinion on both sides to take over

as they muddle through will be messier and downright dangerous.

(Spearhead Analyses are collaborative efforts and not attributable to a single individual).

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