special election poll: georgia cd-06 -...

SPECIAL ELECTION POLL:GEORGIA CD-06

OVERVIEWLess than a week out from the Special Election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Revily surveyed likely voters to breakdown political sentiment and candidate support. Taking place in a traditionally strong Republican district, this race swiftly became a high profile race to watch as Democrat Jon Ossoff entered the race with heavy financial backing. After a closer than expected race to replace Mike Pompeo in Kansas’s 4th Congressional District, this special election takes center stage as just the second in Donald Trump’s first one hundred days as President. The result could potentially be a preview of what the 2018 midterm elections have in store.

RED DISTRICT IN DANGERRepublicans have been elected to Georgia’s 6th Congressional District by double digit margins since the seat was flipped by, current US Senator, Johnny Isakson in 2000. When asked a generic ballot question, voters indicated that they would prefer the next representative from their district to be a Republican, with that quorum hovering around 50%.

Generic Ballot: In general, would you prefer that the next representative from your congressional district be a Republican or a Democrat?

Answer Percent

Republican Candidate 50.14%

Democrat Candidate 44.06%

Depends 4.83%

Not Sure 0.97%

Total 100%

However, when breaking down the head-to-head candidate support, Democrat Jon Ossoff easily leads the pack of those vying for the seat with 44.7% of the vote. Republicans Karen Handel 16.82% and Bob Gray 15.96% make up the second and third place share of the vote, while Dan Moody trails with 9%.

GA CD 06: If the special election for Congressional District 6 was being held today and the candidates were Republican Bob Gray, Republican Karen Handel, Republican Judson Hill, Republican Amy Kremer, Democrat Jon Ossof, Republican Dan Moody and Democrat Ron Slotin - for which candidate would you vote? If you are still undecided on who to vote for, then please select undecided.

Answer Percent

Bob Gray 15.96%

Karen Handel 16.82%

Judson Hill 6.54%

Amy Kremer 0%

Jon Ossoff 44.7%

Dan Moody 9%

Ron Slotin 0.47%

Another Candidate 0.84%

Undecided 5.66%

Total 100%

A further notable insight is the breakdown of those who have already voted. 63% of those who voted early said that they voted for Jon Ossoff. This statistic is particularly powerful when placed in the context of a special election, where voter turnout can be very difficult to predict.

Q1: Voter Likelihood Crossed With Q5: GA CD 06

Q1: Voter Likelihood

Q5: GA CD 06

Bob Gray

Karen Handel

Judson Hill

Amy Kremer

Jon Ossoff

Dan Moody

Ron Slotin

Another Candidate

Undecided

Already Voted 10% 15% 4% 0% 63% 5% 0% 1% 1%

ROAD TO A RUNOFFUnless a candidate can pull over 50% of the vote on April 18th, this race will head to a runoff election between the top two candidates on June 20th. An early hypothetical matchup between Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff, as well as a matchup between Bob Gray and Jon Ossoff resulted in statistical deadlocks in both cases. Our analysis reveals that in both hypothetical matchups support throughout the large field of Republican candidates will shift to the eventual Republican in the runoff, whether it be Gray or Handel.

Handel v Ossoff: If the special election for Congressional District 6 were to result in a runoff election and the candidates were Republican Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff - for which candidate would you vote? If you are still undecided on who to vote for, then please select undecided.

Answer Percent

Karen Handel 46.06%

Jon Ossoff 47.27%

Undecided 6.68%

Total 100%

Gray v Ossoff: If the special election for Congressional District 6 were to result in a runoff election and the candidates were Republican Bob Gray and Democrat Jon Ossoff - for which candidate would you vote? If you are still undecided on who to vote for, then please select undecided.

Answer Percent

Bob Gray 48.3%

Jon Ossoff 47.27%

Undecided 4.43%

Total 100%

KEY TAKEAWAYS• Jon Ossoff leads the field with 44.7% of the vote; Handel and Gray trail with 16.82% and 15.96%

respectively. 5.66% of the population is undecided.• Generic Ballot question revealed that 50.14% of District 6 voters would prefer for their next US

Congressman to be a Republican candidate; 44.06% preferred a Democratic candidate, 4.83% said it would depend on the candidate and .97% were undecided

• Hypothetical runoff between Karen Handel and Jon Ossoff yields (Handel 46.06% / Ossoff 47.27% / Undecided 6.68%), Hypothetical runoff between Bob Gray and Jon Ossoff yields (Gray 48.3% / Ossoff 47.2% / Undecided 4.43%)

• Jon Ossoff’s image assessment resulted in just 5.07% of the population who were either unaware or had not formed an opinion on him (47.97% Favorable/ 46.96% Unfavorable), Handel and Gray have significantly larger portions of the population who are either have never heard of them or haven’t formed an opinion

WANT TO KNOW MORE?Interested in leaning more about our survey? Revily’s full report includes responses by political geography, question by question breakdowns among demographics such as income ranges, education level and more. For more information or a more exhaustive report on this research Contact Us.

FOR PRESS INQUIRIES:Janey Burrell | Dir. of Research Servicese: [email protected]: 770.855.0737

GA CD 06 Special Election

04/10/2017 - 04/12/2017

Performed by Revily

TOPLINE REPORT

Methodology: The GA CD 06 Poll was performed by Revily, Inc. The poll was conducted byIVR Interviews from April 10 - April 12 among a random sample of 485 likely voters. The pollhas a margin error of plus or minus 4.45 percentage points. Results are weighted. Somepercentages in crosstab reports for this poll may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Q1: Voter Likelihood: Have you voted or how likely would you say you are to vote in the special election forCongressional District 6 on April 18th:

Answer Percent

Already Voted 33.44%

Extremely Likely 61.49%

Very Likely 3.97%

Somewhat Likely 1.11%

Not Very Likely 0%

Not Likely at All 0%

Total 100%

Q2: Presidential Approval: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

Answer Percent

Approve 47.48%

Disapprove 47.79%

Undecided 4.73%

Total 100%

GA CD 06 Special Election 04/10/2017 - 04/12/2017

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Q3: Price Approval: Do you approve of the job Tom Price has done as a US Congressman?

Answer Percent

Approve 46.47%

Disapprove 42.1%

Undecided 11.43%

Total 100%

Q4: Generic Ballot: In general, would you prefer that the next representative from your congressional district be aRepublican or a Democrat?

Answer Percent

Republican Candidate 50.14%

Democrat Candidate 44.06%

Depends 4.83%

Not Sure 0.97%

Total 100%


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Q5: GA CD 06: If the special election for Congressional District 6 was being held today and the candidates wereRepublican Bob Gray, Republican Karen Handel, Republican Judson Hill, Republican Amy Kremer, Democrat JonOssof , Republican Dan Moody and Democrat Ron Slotin - for which candidate would you vote? If you are stillundecided on who to vote for, then please select undecided.

Answer Percent

Bob Gray 15.96%

Karen Handel 16.82%

Judson Hill 6.54%

Amy Kremer 0%

Jon Ossoff 44.7%

Dan Moody 9%

Ron Slotin 0.47%

Another Candidate 0.84%

Undecided 5.66%

Total 100%


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Q6: Handel v Ossoff: If the special election for Congressional District 6 were to result in a runoff election and thecandidates were Republican Karen Handel and Democrat Jon Ossoff - for which candidate would you vote? If youare still undecided on who to vote for, then please select undecided.

Answer Percent

Karen Handel 46.06%

Jon Ossoff 47.27%

Undecided 6.68%

Total 100%

Q7: Gray v Ossoff: If the special election for Congressional District 6 were to result in a runoff election and thecandidates were Republican Bob Gray and Democrat Jon Ossoff - for which candidate would you vote? If you arestill undecided on who to vote for, then please select undecided.

Answer Percent

Bob Gray 48.3%

Jon Ossoff 47.27%

Undecided 4.43%

Total 100%


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Q8: Gray Image: Now I would like to read you a list of names and have you select the choice, for each name, thatbest describes your opinion of that person. If you don\u2019t know enough of the person to state your opinion, justsay so. For Congressional Candidate Bob Gray:

Answer Percent

Favorable 33.74%

Unfavorable 28.37%

Not Formed Opinion 37.89%

Total 100%

Q9: Handel Image: For Congressional Candidate Karen Handel:

Answer Percent

Favorable 35.59%

Unfavorable 50.39%


Total 100%


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Q10: Ossoff Image: For Congressional Candidate John Ossoff:

Answer Percent

Favorable 47.97%

Unfavorable 46.96%


Total 100%

Q11: Syrian Air Strikes: Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. launching airstrikes against Syrian military targetsin response to the Syrian governments use of chemical weapons on civilians?

Answer Percent

Approve 59.93%

Disapprove 22.27%


Total 100%


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Q12: Ideology: Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, somewhatliberal or very liberal?

Answer Percent

Very Conservative 22.94%

SW Conservative 23.95%

Moderate 25.27%

SW Liberal 17.61%

Very Liberal 10.23%

Total 100%

Q13: Party: In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Answer Percent

Republican 34%

Democrat 33%

Independent or Other 33%

Total 100%


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Q14: Ethnicity: What is your ethnicity?

Answer Percent

Caucasian 82.88%

African American 8.98%

Hispanic 1.38%

Other 6.75%

Total 100%

Q15: Gender: Are you male or are you female?

Answer Percent

Male 44%

Female 56%

Total 100%


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Q16: Age: Which of the following choices is your age range?

Answer Percent

18-34 8%

35-54 20%

55-64 20%

65+ 52%

Total 100%

Q17: Marital Status: Which of the following choices describes your current marital status?

Answer Percent

Single and Never Married 11.77%

Married 69.32%

Separated 0%

Divorced 10.21%

Widowed 8.7%

Total 100%


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