spendtrend - first data · beverage stores, where consumers tend to utilize pin debit cards,...

SpendTrend®

Please read “How to Read SpendTrend®” on page 5.

About this analytics tool: First Data SpendTrend® is a macro-economic indicator that reports aggregated year-over-year same store sales activity for card based payments. First Data SpendTrend® does not represent First Data’s financial performance.

©2012 First Data Corporation. All Rights Reserved.SpendTrend® | Edition: September 2012 | Version 100912 1

What this spendtrend Means. Fundamentals are supporting spending growth, with employment and income growing slowly, the stock market rising and the housing market firming. While consumer fundamentals are improving, they are doing so slowly. The slow pace of job and income growth is the most significant weight holding back consumers. However, an upcoming presidential election, rising food costs as well as ongoing job fears could cause consumers to tighten their spending.

SEPTEMBER YEAR-OVER-YEAR DOLLAR VOLUME GROWTH WAS 5.8% September’s overall year-over-year dollar volume growth was 5.8%, compared to last month’s growth of 7.2%. Despite the overall slowdown, dollar volume growth at Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers and Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores held stable as the housing market turnaround continued to drive shoppers to spend in these segments. More so, Food and Beverage Stores dollar volume growth of 5.5% marked a three month high.

Total

Food/Beverage Stores (Supermarket / Grocery)

Food Service/Drinking Places(incl. Restaurants/QSR)

Gasoline Stations

Hotel

Leisure

Services

Retail

Travel

Building Materials/Garden Equip./Supply Dealers

Clothing/Acc. Stores

Electronic/Appliances

Furniture/Home Furnishings

Gen’l Merch Stores (incl. Value Retail)

Health/Personal Care Stores

Misc. Store Retailers

Non Store Retailers (Mail/Tel. Orders)

Sporting Goods/Hobby/Book/Music Stores

5% 10%0%

0% 5%

-0.1%

3.4%

3.1%

5.7%

4.5%

6.0%

-1.3%

1.0%

4.6%

10%-5%

9.4%

7.0%

3.7%

2.6%

0.6%

9.1%

9.3%

5.5%

5.8%

same store dollar Volume Growth by industry

All Data is First Data Proprietary Transaction Data and includes only Actual Card-Based forms of Payment

Key InsIghts

Consumer Spending Growth Slower In September

Dollar Volume, transaction growth Remained healthy But slowed From August. Dollar volume growth was 5.8%, down from August’s 7.2% growth. The moderation of growth can be attributed to tough comparables as September 2011 was a strong month with dollar volume growth of 9.5%. Transaction growth dipped slightly to 6.3% from 6.5% last month.

Retail Dollar Volume growth hits twelve Month Low. Retail dollar volume growth slowed to 3.7% from 7.4% in August due to tough comparables, the end of back-to-school shopping and restricted consumer spending in light of the upcoming holiday season. However, the housing market turnaround continued to drive shoppers to spend at Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supply Dealers and Furniture & Home Furnishing Stores.

PIn Debit Continued to Lead All Other Payment Methods. For the eleventh consecutive month, PIN debit transaction growth led all other payment types. PIN debit transaction growth was 8.9% as segments such as Food and Beverage Stores, where consumers tend to utilize PIN debit cards, performed well. Meanwhile, credit transaction growth dropped to 2.4% as consumer cut back on spending in discretionary categories, where consumers tend to use credit cards more heavily.

Average ticket growth slipped. Average ticket growth was -0.5%, down from August’s 0.6% growth. Although consumers have shown a willingness to spend, they continue to be price-conscious and look for bargains. Retailers have struggled to reduce promotional activity as shoppers grow increasingly accustomed to markdowns.

Edition: September 2012 | Published: October 9, 2012, 9:00 am EST

Industry View

2

First Data SpendTrend®, a macro-economic indicator, is based on aggregate same store sales activity in the First Data Point of Sale Network. First Data SpendTrend® does not represent First Data’s financial performance.

©2012 First Data Corporation. All Rights Reserved.SpendTrend® | Edition: September 2012 | Version 100912

Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 sep 12

total 8.6% 7.8% 8.2% 6.3% 5.8%

Total Excl. Gasoline Stations 7.3% 7.2% 7.8% 6.7% 5.5%

Total Excl. Motor Vehicles/Parts Dealers 8.6% 7.8% 8.3% 6.4% 5.9%

Total Excl. Motor Vehicles, Gasoline Stations 7.4% 7.3% 7.8% 6.8% 5.6%

Total Excl. Motor Vehicles, Gasoline Stations, Food/Beverage Stores (Supermarket/Grocery) 7.9% 7.5% 8.4% 7.3% 5.6%

Retail/Food Services Total 9.1% 7.3% 8.1% 5.2% 5.4%

Food/Beverage Stores (Supermarket/Grocery) 5.6% 6.5% 6.3% 5.1% 5.5%

Food Services/Drinking Places (incl. Restaurants/QSR) 8.2% 9.7% 10.1% 8.4% 9.3%

Gasoline Stations 28.1% 17.1% 14.4% 1.6% 9.1%

Hotel 8.2% 6.6% 7.4% 7.8% 0.6%

Leisure 7.6% 4.7% 6.5% 5.6% 2.6%

Motor Vehicles/Parts Dealers 6.2% 6.5% 7.0% 4.3% 2.4%

Retail 8.3% 5.8% 7.7% 5.4% 3.7%

Building Materials/Garden Equip./Supply Dealers 6.8% 6.8% 11.1% 5.9% 4.6%

Clothing/Acc. Stores 5.9% 4.6% 8.4% 4.1% 1.0%

Electronic/Appliances -3.6% -1.2% -1.8% 0.4% -1.3%

Furniture/Home Furnishings 5.6% 5.7% 5.1% 4.5% 6.0%

Gen’l Merch Stores (incl. Value Retail) 9.1% 5.9% 9.4% 7.4% 5.7%

Health/Personal Care Stores 3.9% 3.0% 4.6% 4.8% 3.1%

Misc. Store Retailers 17.5% 10.0% 7.9% 4.6% 4.5%

Non Store Retailers (Mail/Tel. Orders) 2.3% 4.2% 6.6% 4.9% -0.1%

Sporting Goods/Hobby/Book/Music Stores 3.1% 1.9% 5.4% 4.4% 3.4%

Services 7.4% 9.7% 9.8% 9.5% 7.0%

Travel 5.1% 9.3% 9.7% 11.5% 9.4%

RETAIL DOLLAR VOLUME SLOWED CONSIDERABLY IN SEPTEMBERDollar volume growth at Retailers was 3.7%, a significant slowdown from August’s 7.4% growth as consumers monitored and restricted their spending in light of the upcoming holiday season. General Merchandise Stores (incl. Value Retail) and Clothing & Accessories Stores dollar volume growth of 5.7% and 1.0% marked a distinct slowdown from August’s growth of 11.0% and 6.4% as back-to-school spending wrapped up in the middle of the month. However, dollar volume growth at Food Services and Drinking Places jumped to 9.3%, compared to 8.0% last month.

same store dollar Volume Growth by industry

––– Travel––– Food Services/

Drinking Places (incl. Restaurants/QSR)

––– Gasoline Stations––– Services......Total––– Food/Beverage Stores

(Supermarket/Grocery)––– Retail––– Leisure––– Hotel

Items highlighted in blue are represented in line graph.All Data is First Data Proprietary Transaction Data and includes only Actual Card-Based forms of Payment

Jan AprFeb MarDecNovOct May June July Aug Sep 12Sep 11

15%

5%

-5%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30% Travel

Services

Retail

Leisure

Hotel

Gasoline Stations

Food Services/Drinking Places (incl. Restaurants & QSR)

Food/Beverage Stores (incl. Grocery)

TotalJan AprFeb MarDecNovOct May June July Aug Sep 12Sep 11

15%

5%

-5%

25%

0%

10%

20%

30% Travel

Services

Retail

Leisure

Hotel

Gasoline Stations



Total

9.4%

5.5%

9.1%

0.6%

9.3%

3.7%

5.8%

2.6%

7.0%

20%

0%

10%

Industry View

3



OVERALL SAME STORE TRANSACTION GROWTH SLOWED SLIGHTLY TO 6.3%Overall year-over-year transaction growth was 6.3% in September compared to August’s 6.5% growth. Food and Beverage Store transaction growth of 5.7% marked a six month high and was a healthy increase compared to last month’s growth of 4.3%. However, most Retailers saw slower sequential transaction growth in September.

AVERAGE TICKET GROWTH FALTEREDOverall average ticket growth was -0.5%, a significant slowdown from August’s growth of 0.6% as retailers remained aggressive with promotions. Average ticket growth at Retailers was 0.6%, a substantial slowdown from last month’s growth of 1.9%. This marked the slowest growth since March 2012. However, average ticket growth at Food Services / Drinking Places returned to positive territory in September with growth of 0.8%, compared to last month’s growth of -1.7%.


10%

15%

5%

0%

-5%

––– Travel––– Services––– Food Services/ Drinking

Places (incl. Restaurants/QSR)

––– Gasoline Stations......Total––– Food/Beverage Stores

(Supermarket/Grocery)––– Retail––– Leisure––– Hotel

same store transaction Growth by industry

5.7%

3.1%

17.4%

-1.2%

8.4%

6.3%

-0.1%

7.1%

9.7%

Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 sep 12

total 6.8% 6.9% 8.2% 6.0% 6.3%

Food/Beverage Stores (Supermarket/Grocery) 4.0% 5.4% 5.6% 4.7% 5.7%

Food Services/Drinking Places (incl. Restaurants/QSR) 9.9% 11.3% 12.6% 9.7% 8.4%

Gasoline Stations 8.4% 6.3% 9.5% 4.6% 7.1%

Hotel 4.4% 4.0% 4.8% 5.1% -1.2%

Leisure 10.4% 1.2% 8.2% 2.0% -0.1%

Retail 7.6% 5.4% 6.7% 4.0% 3.1%

Services 6.1% 10.5% 10.3% 9.7% 9.7%

Travel 3.2% 5.5% 10.4% 17.4% 17.4%

––– Leisure––– Gasoline Stations––– Hotel––– Food Services/

Drinking Places (incl. Restaurants/QSR)

––– Retail––– Food/Beverage Stores

(Supermarket/Grocery)......Total––– Services––– Travel

same store average ticket Growth by industry

0%

-5%

-10%

5%

15%

10%


Travel

Services

Retail

Leisure

Hotel

Gasoline Stations

Food Services & Drinking Places (incl Restaurants & QSR)

Food & Beverage Stores (incl. Grocery)

Total

20%

0%

-5%

-10%

5%

15%

10%


Travel

Services

Retail

Leisure

Hotel

Gasoline Stations

Food Services & Drinking Places (incl Restaurants & QSR)

Food & Beverage Stores (incl. Grocery)

Total

20%

5%

10%

0%

-10%

-5%

0.8%

2.7%

-0.5%

-0.1%

1.9%

0.6%

-2.5%

1.8%

-6.8%

Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 sep 12

total 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.3% -0.5%

Food/Beverage Stores (Supermarket/Grocery) 1.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% -0.1%

Food Services/Drinking Places (incl. Restaurants/QSR) -1.5% -1.4% -2.3% -1.2% 0.8%

Gasoline Stations 18.2% 10.1% 4.5% -2.8% 1.9%

Hotel 3.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6% 1.8%

Leisure -2.5% 3.5% -1.6% 3.5% 2.7%

Retail 0.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6%

Services 1.2% -0.7% -0.4% -0.2% -2.5%

Travel 1.8% 3.5% -0.6% -5.0% -6.8%

Travel

Services

Retail

Leisure

Hotel

Gasoline Stations



Total

15%

20%

5%

0%

-5%

10%


25%

Travel

Services

Retail

Leisure

Hotel

Gasoline Stations



Total

15%

20%

5%

0%

-5%

10%


25%

Regional View

4



-6.4 %

ALL REGIONS POSTED WEAKER DOLLAR VOLUME GROWTH IN SEPTEMBER

The entire nation saw a slowdown in dollar volume growth as the upcoming election and holiday season weighed on shoppers’ minds. Dollar volume growth of 2.5% in New England was a strong slowdown compared to August. Meanwhile, the Midwest continued to lead all regions in dollar volume growth and has done so since February 2012.

same store dollar Volume Growth by region and state

––– Below 3%––– 3% to 5%––– 5% to 7%––– Over 7%

sep Largest state sep 2012 in Region 2012

New England 2.5% Massachusetts 3.1%

Mid Atlantic 4.1% New York 2.1%

South 5.9% Florida 5.9%

Midwest 8.5% Illinois 7.8%

Southwest 4.8% Texas 4.2%

West 6.3% California 6.3%

Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 sep 12

New England 9.7% 7.0% 7.2% 3.8% 2.5%

Mid Atlantic 8.6% 8.2% 7.8% 4.4% 4.1%

South 7.9% 6.7% 8.8% 5.5% 5.9%

Midwest 12.0% 9.5% 10.3% 8.3% 8.5%

Southwest 8.5% 10.1% 6.8% 6.0% 4.8%

West 7.0% 6.6% 7.4% 6.4% 6.3%

0%

-10%

-20%

10%

20%

PIN Debit

Credit

Check

Signature Debt

CL Prepaid

Mar June July Aug Sep 12Apr MayFebJanDecNovSep 11 Oct

PIN DEBIT CONTINUED TO BE FASTEST-GROWING PAYMENT TYPE

• PINdebittransactiongrowthwas8.9%inSeptemberassegmentssuchasFoodandBeverageStores,whereconsumerstend to use PIN debit cards more heavily, performed well in September. Meanwhile, credit transaction growth of 2.4% in September marked the slowest growth in the past twelve months as consumers continued to limit their discretionary spending.

• Intermsofdollarvolume,PINdebitledallothermethodsofpaymentbyconsumerswith9.7%growthinSeptember.Thisalso marked the highest growth seen since March 2012. Signature debit and credit posted growth rates of 8.9% and 2.3% respectively.

transaction Growth by payment type

dollar Volume Growth by payment type

All data is First Data Proprietary Transaction Data and includes only Actual Card-Based and Check forms of payment. Check forms of payment do not appear in any other section of this analysis. Closed Loop Prepaid data shown above reports activity related to activations and is not included in other sections of this analysis.

10%

0%

0%

10%

20%

-10%

-10%

sep 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12

Credit 2.4% 9.3% 6.9% 6.6% 5.3%

Sig. Debit 7.5% 6.5% 6.6% 7.8% 5.2%

PIN Debit 8.9% 5.5% 7.7% 10.9% 8.1%

Check -11.9% -10.7% -10.6% -5.8% -11.2%

CL Prepaid 6.9% 7.7% 5.7% 9.4% 3.6%

sep 12 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12

Credit 2.3% 10.6% 8.0% 7.2% 6.3%

Sig. Debit 8.9% 5.9% 7.0% 7.5% 5.3%

PIN Debit 9.7% 7.9% 8.4% 11.3% 8.0%

Check -6.4% -9.5% -8.5% -4.0% -6.1%

CL Prepaid 6.4% 12.5% 8.9% 9.5% -0.8%

0%

-10%

-20%

10%

20%

PIN Debit

Credit

Check

Signature Debt

CL Prepaid


10%

0%

-10%

20%

-20%

Signature DebtPIN Debit Credit

Check


––– Check ––– Credit ––– PIN Debit ––– Signature Debit ––– Closed Loop Prepaid

10%

0%

-10%

20%

-20%

Signature DebtPIN Debit Credit

Check


9.7%

8.9%

2.3%

6.4%

7.5%

2.4%

-11.9%

8.9%

6.9%

Payment Type View

Further Information / Coming Soon

5



The following terms and conditions (“Terms of Use”) comprise the Subscriber Agreement between First Data Corp. (“First Data”) and you (“Subscriber”), and govern Subscriber’s use of the SpendTrend® reports (including any portions thereof) and any articles, text, data, information, and other materials and services related thereto (collectively, “SpendTrend™ reports”). Subscriber agrees to be bound by, and to use the SpendTrend™ reports in compliance with, the Terms of Use and all applicable laws, regulations, and rules. These Terms of Use may be amended from time to time and it is the Subscriber’s responsibility to review the Terms of Use for any updates. If you have any questions regarding the Terms of Use or the SpendTrend® reports, please contact First Data SpendTrend®, Phone 1-800-430-0169, email: [email protected]

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DEFINITIONS AND DISCLAIMERSSame Store figures include activity (amount of USD sales volumes or transactions) for merchant locations that are open and have activity in both comparison time periods. They are not reflective of overall First Data activity.

Same Store Dollar Volume growth reflects the percent change in the USD amount of same store sales (net of returns) in the current period compared to the same period in the prior year.

Same Store Transaction growth reflects the percent change in the number of same store transactions (net of returns) in the current period compared to the same period in the prior year.

Same Store Average Ticket is derived by dividing the total USD amount of Same Store Sales for a specified period by the total number of Same Store Transactions for that same period.

U.S. Regions are defined as follows: New England: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT Mid Atlantic: DE, DC, MD, NJ, NY, PA South: AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, MO, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV Midwest: IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, NE, ND, OH, SD, WI Southwest: AZ, NM, OK, TX West: AK, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NV, OR, UT, WA, WY

Same Store Sales Data does not include the Salem platforms, Bank of America proprietary platform, or Bank of America TSYS platform activity.

All data contains Credit, Debit and EBT transactions. Check and Closed Loop Prepaid transactions are included in the Payment Type View separately.

All charts show year-over-year (YoY) growth rate for same time period in previous year.

Growth rates are not seasonally adjusted.

HOW TO READ SPENDTREND • Allgrowthratescomparecurrentmonthtothesamemonthprioryear.Growthrates

are not based on prior sequential month but always reflect year-over-year growth. We believe year-over-year growth better reflects organic spending patterns.

• Wedonotadjustforseasonality.Webelievethatseasonalityadjustmentsarebestmade by the users of our reports.

• OuranalysisisbasedonnormalizedPOSactivityfromFirstData’sproprietarysystems.Our data includes only card based payments and checks where appropriate. We do not use estimates or rely on surveys and we do not include cash or checks.

Key differences between SpendTrend and other available reports:

• Governmentandnetworkassociationreportsareoftenbasedonsurveysandestimates not actual POS activity.

• Governmentandnetworkassociationreportsoftenmakesequentialgrowthcomparisons (i.e. April 2010 to May 2010 instead of April 2009 to April 2010).

• Governmentandnetworkassociationreportsmakeadjustmentsforassumptions and seasonality which we believe distorts the reported growth rates.

ABOUT FIRST DATAAround the world, every second of every day, First Data makes payment transactions secure, fast and easy for merchants, financial institutions and their customers. First Data leverages its vast product portfolio and expertise to drive customer revenue and profitability. Whether the choice of payment is by debit or credit card, gift card, check or mobile phone, online or at the checkout counter. First Data takes every opportunity to go beyond the transaction. For more information, visit www.firstdata.com

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