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Christopher Monckton, Editor ♦ www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

July 2010 | Volume 2 | Issue 7

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report

Indus River in Pakistan

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3 Did ‘global warming’ cause Russia’s drought and Pakistan’s floods?

T he author itative M onthly C O2 R epor t for J une 2010 explains that r ecent extr eme weather is of natur al or igin and that the influence of M an is too small to have played a significant par t. E ditor ial C omment: Page 3.

Mörner on sea level: The Professor says yet another suggestion that sea level will soon rise 23 feet is nonsense. Page 4.

Our revised graphs explained: An account of how we compile our authoritiative SPPI temperature and CO2 graphs. Page 5.

IPCC assumes CO2 concentration will reach 836 ppmv by 2100, but, on present trends, it will be well short. Pages 6-8.

Since 1980 global temperature has risen at only 2.7 °F (1.5 °C)/century, not 6 F° (3.4 C°) as IPCC predicts. Pages 9-12.

Sea level rose just 8 inches in the 20th century, and has been rising since 1993 at a very modest 1 ft/century. Page 13.

Arctic sea-ice extent is nearing its summer minimum. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent is now at its third-highest in the 30-year record. Global sea ice extent shows little trend for 30 years. Pages 14-18.

Hurricane and tropical-cyclone activity remains at its lowest since satellite measurement began. Pages 19-22.

Sunspot activity is back to low-normal: but, looking back it was a long – and cool – solar minimum. Pages 23-24.

The (very few) benefits and the (very large) costs of the Waxman/Markey Bill are illustrated at Pages 25-28.

There is no cause for alarm: Christopher Monckton of Brenchley says CO2 and warming are normal. Pages 29-32.

As always, there’s our “global warming” ready reckoner, the surest way to check policy costs against benefits. Pages 33-34.

and our selection of recent scientific papers of interest, compiled by Dr. Craig Idso of www.co2science.org. Pages 35-40.

The medieval warm period was real, global, and warmer than the present, as our global map shows. Page 41.

And finally ... a polar bear’s take on “global warming! Page 42.

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : July 2010 Accurate, Authoritative Analysis for Today’s Policymakers

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ARK TWAIN, with characteristic concision and vigor, once wrote: “Climate is what you expect: weather is what you get.”

Russia, Pakistan, and China have gotten more weather than they wanted in the past month. The usual suspects promptly swung the PR machine into action, moaning that the disasters were caused by manmade “global warming”. They were wrong.

First, as our Monthly CO2 Reports regularly show, there has not been much in the way of warming this millennium. Since there has been no warming, it cannot be blamed.

Secondly, it has all happened before. The Panj-Aub, or, as we write it, the Punjab, means “Five Rivers”. When the rains of the monsoon come, they sometimes come very heavily and swell the rivers. They last did so around 80 years ago, causing floods similar in extent to those of today. But that event occurred before television, and at a time when the population of the region was far smaller. Droughts and floods have long been a feature of life right across Asia, as historical accounts attest. Famines in both Russia and China used to occur with depressing regularity every time the weather was disobliging.

In Europe, too, extreme floods and droughts have been seen before. In the 18th century, the entire English county of Norfolk was under six inches of water – much as the Punjab is today – for six long months. It has not flooded since. In medieval times, the city center of Derby was flooded. It has not flooded since. In 1540 there was a drought so severe in France that the river Seine dried out and was used as a thoroughfare. It has not dried out since. As a Texan might put it, “Sh*t happens!”

In the United States, where 1934 was the hottest year in the 160-year instrumental temperature record, the droughts of the 1930s devastated the Great Plains. John Steinbeck’s novel The Grapes of Wrath gives some flavor of the effect on the farmers there. Since that time, no similar drought has occurred.

The third and most important reason why the mere fact of extreme weather events does not tell us their cause is rooted in the law of probability. Suppose there are 1000 micro-climates around the world, in each of which a dozen types of extreme-weather event can in principle occur. Then we should expect to see a once-in-1000-years extreme-weather event taking place somewhere on the planet just about every month, and a once-in-100-years event two or three times a week. Get used to it!

Weather, like cricket, is a mathematically-chaotic object that tends to generate records every day. That is why weather, like cricket, has long had almanacs published to record its diurnal vagaries. Even the UN’s climate panel, the IPCC, admits in its 2001 and 2007 climate assessment reports that one cannot ascribe individual extreme-weather events to manmade “global warming”.

Which brings us back to the weather-related suffering, disease, and death in Russia, Pakistan, and China. It would be best if the world stopped squandering billions on “global warming” that – if it is happening at all – is happening at a small fraction of the rate predicted by the IPCC. The same billions could and should be diverted at once towards creating and building a permanent organization – divorced from the irreformably corrupt UN – to bring swift help to the stricken. Let us aid today’s victims today, and tomorrow’s victims tomorrow. Monckton of Brenchley

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Editorial : : Droughts, Floods, and Man Don’t Blame ‘Global Warming’ For Climate Catastrophes

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L etting the r eal-wor ld data speak out EFORE we began producing the Monthly CO2 Reports, it was easy for “global warming” profiteers to pretend, and repeatedly to state, that “global warming” is “getting worse”,

and that the climate is changing “faster than expected”. Now they are unable to get away with such falsehoods as easily as before. The centerpieces of our monthly series of graphs showing what is happening in the real world are our CO2 and temperature graphs, now regarded as the definitive standard worldwide. Our CO2 concentration graphs show changes in real-world CO2 concentration as measured by monitoring stations worldwide and compiled by NOAA. We also calculate and display the least-squares linear-regression trend on the real-world data. Because this trend has been very close to a straight line since late 2001, it is a better guide to future CO2 concentration than the UN’s projections that we also display, based on its A2 “business as usual” scenario – the one that comes closest to reality at present. The one difference is that, for clarity, we zero the UN’s projections to the start-point of the linear regression trend on the real-world data. The UN predicts that, this century, CO2 concentration will rise exponentially – at an ever-increasing rate – towards 836 [730, 1020] parts per million by volume in 2100. In reality, however, for ten years CO2 concentration has been following an exponential curve towards just 618 ppmv by 2100. If this trend continues, the UN’s central estimate of CO2 concentration is excessive.

Our global-temperature graphs show changes in real-world temperature at or near the Earth’s surface. Each temperature graph represents the mean of two satellite datasets: the monthly lower-troposphere anomalies from the satellites of Remote Sensing Systems, Inc., and of the University of Alabama at Huntsville. We do not use the Hadley/CRU or NCDC/GISS datasets: the Climate-gate scandal has shown these to be unreliable. On each graph, the anomalies are zeroed to the least element in the dataset. For clarity, the IPCC’s range of predictions is zeroed to the start-point of the least-squares linear-regression trend on the real-world data. Since late 2001, global temperature has been falling. To preserve consistency with the IPCC’s published formulae for evaluating climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, the IPCC’s projections are evaluated directly from its projected exponential growth in CO2 concentration using the IPCC’s own logarithmic formula for equilibrium temperature change adjusted for transient warming, yielding a net near-linear range of projections. Equilibrium change – final temperature response when the climate has settled down after an external perturbation – is greater than the transient change predicted by the UN. However, on the A2 scenario that we use, the difference by 2100 is just 0.5 C° (0.9 F°). Therefore, when the UN and other scientists say that global warming “in the pipeline” will go on for “thousands of years”, just 0.5 C° of additional warming is all that they are talking about.

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SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Our Graphs Your Monthly Update On What Is Really Happening With The Climate

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C O2 concentr ation r ises, but not at the pr edicted ever -incr easing r ate

CO2 is rising in a near-straight line, well below the IPCC’s projected range (pale blue region). The deseasonalized real-world data are shown as a thick, dark-blue line overlaid on the least-squares linear-regression trend, heading for 570 ppmv by 2100. The trend also fits an exponential curve reaching 618 ppmv by 2100. Either way, the rate of CO2 growth has been declining for more than a decade, and – on present trends – will not reach even the minimum 2100 value of 730 ppmv projected on the IPCC’s A2 scenario. Data source: NOAA.

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IPCC predicts rapid, exponential CO2 growth that is not occurring

Observed CO2 growth is near-linear, and is nothing like as steeply exponential as predicted by the UN’s climate panel. If CO2 concentration does not rise as rapidly as the IPCC predicts, nor will temperature. Data source: NOAA.

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Projecting the past decade’s CO2 trend to 2100 cuts IPCC forecasts

The dark-blue line shows CO2’s actual path, well below the exponential-growth curves (bounding the pale blue region) predicted by the IPCC in its 2007 report. Note that our graphs use true exponential curves, not the supra-exponential curves of the IPCC (which nevertheless says its A2 projections for CO2 are exponential). If CO2 continues on its present path, the IPCC’s central temperature projection for the year 2100 must be considerably reduced. Data source: NOAA.

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The 30-year global warming trend is just 2.7 °F (1.5 °C) per century

Global temperature for the past 30 years has been undershooting the IPCC’s currently-predicted warming rates (pink region). The warming trend (thick red line) has been rising at well below half of the IPCC’s central estimate. Data source: SPPI index, compiled as the arithmetic mean of the monthly global lower-troposphere temperature anomalies of Remote Sensing Systems Inc. and the University of Alabama at Huntsville. SPPI no longer uses any terrestrial-temperature datasets, because they have become discredited as unreliable.

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Hardly any ‘global warming’ since the turn of the millennium

For nine and a half years since the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001, the trend in global temperatures has been negligible. The IPCC’s predicted equilibrium warming path (pink region) bears no relation to the far lesser rate of “global warming” that has been observed in the 21st century to date. Note the very sharp peak in global temperature in early 2010, caused by a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation. Earlier Monthly CO2 Reports showed global cooling since 1 January 2001: the change has occurred because the University of Alabama at Huntsville has recently altered its dataset. Source: SPPI global temperature index, the mean of the RSS and UAH datasets.

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RSS satellite global temperature record since 1 January 2001

Remote Sensing Systems’ satellite record since the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001 shows a minuscule warming trend in global temperatures over the present decade. Source: RSS Inc.

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UAH satellite global temperature record since 1 January 2001

The University of Alabama at Huntsville’s recently-revised satellite record since the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001, in contrast to the RSS dataset, shows a slight warming trend in global temperatures over the decade. However, this warming trend, at just 0.6 C° per century, is not statistically significant. The contrast between the RSS and UAH graphs exemplifies data uncertainties. Source: UAH.

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Sea level continues to r ise mor e slowly than the UN pr edicts

Sea level (anomaly in millimetres) is rising at just 1 ft/century: The average rise in sea level over the past 10,000 years was 4 feet/century. During the 20th century it was 8 inches. As recently as 2001, the IPCC had predicted that sea level might rise as much as 3 ft in the 21st century. However, this maximum was cut by more than one-third to less than 2 feet in the IPCC’s 2007 report, with a central estimate of 1 ft 5 in. Mörner (2004) says sea level will rise about 8 inches in the 21st century. Mr. Justice Burton, in the UK High Court, bluntly commented on Al Gore’s predicted 20ft sea-level rise as follows: “The Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view.” A fortiori, James Hansen’s prediction of a 246ft sea-level rise, made in an article in The Guardian in 2009 is mere rodomontade. Source: University of Colorado, 2010, release 3.

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Arctic sea-ice extent approaches the late-summer ice minimum

Arctic sea ice extent (millions of square kilometers: left scale): The red curve for this year shows that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic has fallen from above the 10-year mean a few months ago to track the 2008 curve. In 2005, 2007, and 2008, sea-ice extent during the September low season was below the 30-year minimum. Arctic summer sea ice covered its least extent in 30 years during the late summer of 2007. However, NASA has attributed that sudden decline to unusual poleward movements of heat transported by currents and winds: the Arctic climate has long been known to be volatile. The decline cannot have been caused by “global warming”, because, as the SPPI Global Temperature Index shows, there has been very little warming globally during the past decade. At almost the same moment as summer sea-ice extent reached its 30-year minimum in the Arctic, sea-ice extent in the Antarctic reached its 30-year maximum, though the latter event was very much less widely reported in the media than the former. Source: IARC JAXA, Japan, August 2010.

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... and the same graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute

Recovering to the mean: The Danish Meteorological Institute’s graph of Arctic sea-ice extent (millions of square km on left scale: 2010 in black) shows Northern-Hemisphere sea ice returning to what has been normal in the past decade. Short-run fluctuations either side of the decadal mean are to be expected, and do not indicate long-run changes. Note that the sea ice extent seems to be bottoming out this season earlier than the extent shown by the IARC/JAXA graph, indicating the difficulties in precise measurement of sea-ice extent even with the advantage of satellites.

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... and summer minimum sea-ice extent has grown 24% in 2 years

Arctic summer sea-ice extent (purple) has increased in each of the past two years, and is very close to the mean for the past decade. Since there has been no statistically-significant “global warming” since 1995, and since the decline in summer sea-ice extent has occurred only in the past five years, the decline that occurred in 2007 cannot be attributed to “global warming”. A paper by NASA in 2008 attributed the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum to unusual poleward winds and currents bringing warm weather up from the tropics. A few weeks after the Arctic sea-ice minimum, there extent of Antarctic sea ice reached a 30-year maximum. The Arctic was in fact 2-3 F° warmer in the 1930s and early 1940s than it is today.

A recent paper suggesting that the Arctic is now warmer than at any time for 2000 years is based on the same defective data, and is by the same authors, as the UN’s attempt to abolish the medieval warm period in its 2001 report. In fact, for most of the past 10,000 years the world – and by implication the Arctic – was appreciably warmer than it is today. One of the authors of that report had previously told a fellow-researcher, “We have to abolish the medieval warm period.” However, papers by almost 800 scientists from more than 450 institutions in more than 40 countries over more than 20 years establish that the medieval warm period was real, was global, and was warmer than the present. Source: University of Illinois, 15 September 2009.

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Antarctic sea-ice extent is now at its third-highest in 30 years

Antarctic sea-ice extent (anomaly from 1979-2000 mean, millions of km2: left scale) is now close to its third-highest in 30 years. This fact has scarcely been reported in any mainstream news medium. The peak extent, which occurred late in 2007, followed shortly after the decline in Arctic sea ice in late summer that year. In the summer of 2009, less Antarctic sea-ice melted than since records began 30 years previously, confirming that whatever warming is occurring is not global. Source: University of Illinois, August 2010.

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The regular “heartbeat” of global sea-ice extent: steady for 30 years

Planetary cardiogram showing global sea-ice area (millions of square kilometers: left scale): There has been a very slight decline in the trend (red) of global sea-ice extent over the decades, chiefly attributable to loss of sea ice in the Arctic during the summer, which was well below the mean in 2007, with some recovery in 2008 and a further recovery in 2009. However, the 2008 peak Arctic sea-ice extent was exactly on the 1979-2000 mean, and current sea-ice extent is close to the 1979-2000 mean. The decline in summer sea-ice extent in the Arctic, reflected in the global sea-ice anomalies over most of the past decade, runs counter to the increase in Antarctic sea-ice extent over the period, suggesting that the cause of the regional sea-ice loss may not have been “global warming”. Source: University of Illinois, August 2010.

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Hurricane, typhoon, and tropical-cyclone activity is at a 30-year low

Global and northern-hemisphere tr0pical-cyclone accumulated cyclone energy index, 1979-2010 (ACE units: 104 kts2): Global tropical-cyclone, typhoon, and hurricane activity remains at 30-year lows at least. The last 24-months of the Accumulated Cyclone-Energy Index, at 1090, represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009. Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive-years’ global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, and the 2009 hurricane season in the North Atlantic was only half as active as normal, the other 90% of worldwide tropical-cyclone activity has also been significantly depressed since 2007. The graph shows the 24-month running sum of tropical-cyclone energy for the entire globe (blue: top) and the Northern Hemisphere only (green). The difference between the two time series is the Southern Hemisphere total. Data are shown from January 1979. Intensity estimates of southern-hemisphere cyclones are often missing before the graph’s start-date. Source: Ryan Maue, Florida State University, August 2010.

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Global hurricane days are at their lowest in 30 years

Hurricane activity in decline: The 24-month running sum of hurricane days around the globe has been at its lowest level in 30 years during the 2009 season, confirming the findings of hurricane experts such as Dr. Chris Landsea to the effect that a warming world need not expect hurricanes to become more frequent, longer, or more severe. Source: Ryan Maue, Florida State University, April 2010.

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Global major hurricane days are almost at their lowest in 30 years

Extreme hurricanes are not common at present: The 24-month running sum of major hurricane days around the globe is not far above its lowest level in the 30-year record, confirming that mere warming of the planet does not necessarily entail more intense hurricanes. Source: Ryan Maue, Florida State University, March 2010.

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Almost no trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity for 60 years

North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE: left scale), 1950-2010: The ACE is a 24-month running sum that represents the combined frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. Historically, the North Atlantic hurricane activity is usually characterized as a feast or a famine, making definitions of what is normal difficult. In "active" periods (such as 1995-present), a "normal" season sees much hurricane activity compared to inactive periods (such as 1970-1994). In the above figure, the light blue line indicates the linear trend of North Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy from 1950-2009 – a 60-year period of decent records – and the line is almost flat: no trend since 1950. When seasonal forecasters like Gray & Klotzbach at CSU and Tropical Storms Risk announce their upcoming seasonal forecast, they represent an entire season's worth of activity in an integrated sense either by predicting counts/frequency or ACE. However, there is no reason to assume that the entire hurricane season between June and November will experience uniform favorable or unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions for tropical-cyclone formation. Indeed, the North Atlantic tends to spurt activity. For instance, one storm after another may form from African Easterly Waves and trek across the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes during the peak of the season. Source: Ryan Maue, Florida State University, April 2010.

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Solar activity is heading for what may be a small 2013 maximum

Monthly solar sunspot numbers (black curve, smoothed in blue, and predicted in red) since January 2000: Sunspot activity had been less than for 100 years, but is now recovering as the new solar cycle gets under way. Note that the currently-predicted solar maximum for 2013-14 is considerably less intense than the previous solar maximum in 2000-01. However, the solar flux reaching the top of the atmosphere typically varies by only 0.15% between the minimum and the maximum of the ~11-year solar cycle. Source: ISES/NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO, USA, March 2010.

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The minima of solar cycles 23 and 24 compared

Number of days without any visible sunspots during the previous solar minimum (blue) and the present solar minimum (red). During the last ~11-year solar minimum, in September/October 1996, the longest period without sunspots was 37 days, compared with 44 days in March/April 2009 and 51 days in July/August 2009. Source: Jan Alvestad, February 2010.

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The stupefying cost of the Waxman/Markey Climate Bill

This postcard has all the key figures on the Waxman/Markey climate Bill in one place. Bottom line: to prevent the 3.4 C warming projected by the UN for this century under the A2 carbon emissions scenario would take 1360 years even if the Bill were fully implemented, and would cost $250 trillion. Source: SPPI calculations.

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Why cap-and-trade will not change the global climate one iota

A pointless Bill: The Waxman/Markey Bill will cost billions to implement, but will reduce US carbon emissions hardly at all, unless the numerous exceptions in the Bill are implemented, in which event it will not reduce US carbon emissions at all. Source: www.breakthrough.org.

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The Waxman/Markey Climate Bill will scarcely affect temperatures

Temperature change predicted by the UN, and (dotted line) adjusted to reflect the negligible impact of the Waxman/Markey Climate Bill, which might cut temperatures by 0.2-0.02 F by 2100, at a cost of $18 trillion. Source: Chip Knappenberger: cost estimates $180 bn/year from the White House.

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The Waxman/Markey Climate Bill will scarcely affect sea level

Sea-level change predicted by the UN, and (dotted line) adjusted to reflect the negligible impact of the Waxman/Markey Climate Bill, which might cut sea-level by less than half an in by 2100, at a cost of $18 trillion. Source: Chip Knappenberger: cost estimates $180 bn/year from the White House.

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Why current trends are not alarming Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

The widely-circulated and vigorously-debated Monthly CO2 Report, published by SPPI, includes graphs showing changes in CO2 concentration and in global mean surface temperature since 1980, when the satellites went on weather watch and the NOAA first published its global CO2 concentration series. Since some commenters have queried some of our findings, we have prepared this short briefing note, which has already appeared at www.wattsupwiththat.com by the kindness of Anthony Watts. We were among the first to show that CO2 concentration is not rising at the fast, exponential rate that current anthropogenic emissions would lead the IPCC to expect, and that global temperature has scarcely changed since the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001. CO2 concentration: On emissions reduction, the international community has talked the talk, but – not least because China, India, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa are growing so quickly – it has not walked the walk. Accordingly, carbon emissions are at the high end of the IPCC’s projections, close to the A2 (“business as usual”) emissions scenario, which projects that atmospheric CO2 will grow at an exponential rate between now and 2100 in the absence of global cuts in emissions:

Exponential increase in CO2 concentration from 2000-2100 is projected by the IPCC on its A2 emissions scenario, which comes closest to today’s emissions. On the SPPI CO2-concentration graph, this projection is made via an exponential function that generates the projection zone. This IPCC graph has been enlarged, its ordinate and abscissa labeled, and its aspect ratio altered to provide a comparison with the landscape format of the SPPI graph. On the A2 emissions scenario, the IPCC foresees CO2 rising from a measured 368 ppmv in 2000 (NOAA global CO2 dataset) to a projected 836[730, 1020] ppmv by 2100. However, reality is not obliging. The rate of increase in CO2 concentration has been slowing in recent years: an exponential curve cannot

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Science Focus CO2 And Warming Are Well Below Prediction

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behave thus. In fact, the NOAA’s deseasonalized CO2 concentration curve is close to linear:

CO2 concentration change from 2000-2010 (upper panel) and projected to 2100 (lower panel). The least-squares linear-regression trend on the data shows CO2 concentration rising to just 570 ppmv by 2000, well below the IPCC’s least estimate of 730 ppmv on the A2 emissions scenario.

The IPCC projection zone on the SPPI graphs has its origin at the left-hand end of the linear-regression trend on the NOAA data, and the exponential curves are calculated from that point so that they reach the IPCC’s projected concentrations in 2100. We present the graph thus to show the crucial point: that the CO2 concentration trend is well below the least IPCC estimate. Some have criticized our approach on the ground that over a short enough distance a linear and an exponential trend may be near-coincident. This objection is more theoretical than real. First, the fit of the dark-blue deseasonalized NOAA data to the underlying linear-regression trend line (light blue) is very much closer than it is even to the IPCC’s least projection on scenario A2. If CO2 were now in fact rising at a merely linear rate, and if that rate were to continue, concentration would reach only 570 ppmv by 2100. Secondly, the exponential curve most closely fitting the NOAA data would be barely supra-linear, reaching just 614 ppmv by 2100, rather than the linear 570 ppmv. In practice, the substantial shortfall between prediction and outturn is important, as we now demonstrate. The equation for the IPCC’s central estimate of equilibrium warming from a given rise in CO2 concentration is

∆T = 4.7 ln(C/C0) K,

where the bracketed term represents a proportionate increase in CO2 concentration. Thus, at CO2 doubling, the IPCC would expect 4.7 ln 2 = 3.26 K warming, or around 5.9 F° (IPCC, 2007, ch.10, p.798, box 10.2). On the A2 scenario, CO2 is projected to increase by more than double: equilibrium warming would be 3.86 K, and transient warming would be <0.5 K less, at 3.4 K. But if we were to take the best-fit exponential trend on the CO2 data over the past decade, equilibrium warming from 2000-

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2100 would be 4.7 ln(614/368) = 2.41 K, comfortably below the IPCC’s least estimate and a hefty 26% below its central estimate. Combining the IPCC’s apparent overestimate of CO2 concentration growth with the fact that use of the IPCC’s methods for determining climate sensitivity to observed increases in the concentration of CO2 and five other climate-relevant greenhouse gases over the 55 years 1950-2005 would project a transient warming 2.3 times greater than the observed 0.65 K, anthropogenic warming over the 21st century could be as little as 1 K (less than 2 F°), which would be harmless and beneficial.

Some have expressed doubts about whether atmospheric CO2 concentration is decaying from the A2 scenario’s predicted exponential growth as indicated in our CO2 graph. We have determined the successive decadal least-squares linear-regression trends on the monthly NOAA global deseasonalized CO2 concentration data, for the ten successive periods 1990-2000 to 1999-2009.

The trend values are 149, 160, 170, 178, 184, 187, 191, 195, 194, and 198 ppmv/century respectively. The differences, which, in an exponential curve, would of course increase successively, in fact largely decline successively: 11, 10, 8, 6, 3, 4, 4, -1, and 4 ppmv/century respectively. In recent years, as I have said, the curve has been decaying from the exponential pattern that would be expected given that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are closer to the IPCC’s A2 scenario than to any lesser scenario.

As always, one should be cautious enough not to put too much weight on a short run of data. However, we have also determined the best-fit exponential curve for the data over the past ten years, and it is a curve heading for 618 ppmv by 2100, considerably below the lower-bound curve running up to 730 ppmv by 2100 that the IPCC projects on the A2 scenario.

That is the elephant in the room: even though CO2 emissions are rising rapidly, CO2 concentration is – to borrow a sporting term – falling behind (or, rather, below) the (exponential) curve. That will significantly reduce 21st-century anthropogenic warming compared with the IPCC’s projections, if the current trend continues.

We have not yet investigated the relationship between the slowing (and occasional reversal) of the rate of increase in CO2 concentration and the increase over recent years in estimated global anthropogenic emissions.

Temperature: How, then, has observed, real-world global temperature responded?

The UAH satellite temperature record shows warming at a rate equivalent to 1.4 K/century over the past 30 years. However, the least-squared linear-regression trend is well below the lower bound of the IPCC projection zone, even after the zone has been adjusted to allow for the lesser transient warming that the IPCC projects.

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The SPPI’s graph of the University of Alabama at Huntsville’s monthly global-temperature anomalies over the 30 years since 1 January 1980 shows warming at a rate equivalent to 1.4 K/century – almost double the rate for the 20th-century as a whole. However, most of the warming was attributable to a naturally-occurring reduction in cloud cover that allowed some 2.6 Watts per square meter of additional solar radiance to reach the Earth’s surface between 1981 and 2003 (Pinker et al., 2005; Wild et al., 2006; Boston, 2010, personal communication). Even with this natural warming, the least-squares linear-regression trend on the UAH monthly global mean surface temperature anomalies is below the lower bound of the IPCC projection zone. Some have said that the IPCC projection zone on our graphs should show exactly the values that the IPCC actually projects for the A2 scenario. However, as will soon become apparent, the IPCC’s “global-warming” projections for the early part of the present century appear to have been, in effect, artificially detuned to conform more closely to observation. In compiling our graphs, we decided not merely to accept the IPCC’s projections as being a true representation of the warming that using the IPCC’s own methods for determining climate sensitivity would lead us to expect, but to establish just how much warming the use of the IPCC’s methods would predict, and to take that warming as the basis for the definition of the IPCC projection zone. Let us illustrate the problem with a concrete example. On the A2 scenario, the IPCC projects a warming of 0.2 K/decade for 2000-2020. However, given the IPCC’s projection that CO2 concentration will grow exponentially from 368 ppmv in 2000 towards 836 ppmv by 2100, CO2 concentration should have been 368e(10/100) ln(836/368) = 399.5 ppmv in 2010. Equilibrium warming should thus have been 4.7 ln(399.5/368) = 0.39 K, which we reduce by one-fifth to yield transient warming of 0.31

K, more than half as much again as the IPCC’s 0.2 K. Of course, CO2 concentration in 2010 was only 388 ppmv, and, as the SPPI’s temperature graph shows (this time using the RSS satellite dataset), warming occurred at only 0.3 K/century: about a tenth of the transient warming that use of the IPCC’s methods would lead us to expect.

Barely significant warming: The RSS satellite data for the first decade of the 21st century show only a tenth of the warming that use of the IPCC’s methods would lead us to expect. We make no apology, therefore, for labelling as “IPCC” a projection zone that is calculated on the basis of the methods described by the IPCC itself. Our intention in publishing these graphs is to provide a visual illustration of the extent to which the methods relied upon by the IPCC itself in determining climate sensitivity are reliable. Our CO2 graph shows the failure of CO2 concentration over the past decade to follow the high trajectory projected by the IPCC. And the 20-year warming trend does not even reach the lower bound of the IPCC prediction zone. It ain’t happenin’.

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decide.”

Y our ‘ global-war ming’ r eady r eckoner Here is a step-by-step, do-it-yourself ready-reckoner which will let you use a pocket calculator to make your own instant estimate of global temperature change in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

STEP 1: Decide how far into the future you want your forecast to go, and estimate how much CO2 will be in the atmosphere at that date. Example: Let us do a forecast to 2100. The Monthly CO2 Report charts show CO2 rising to C = 575 parts per million by the end of the century, compared with B = 385 parts per million in late 2008.

STEP 2: Next, work out the proportionate increase C/B in CO2 concentration. In our example, C/B = 575/385 = 1.49.

STEP 3: Take the natural logarithm ln(C/B) of the proportionate increase. If you have a scientific calculator, find the natural logarithm directly using the “ln” button. If not, look up the logarithm in the table below. In our example, ln 1.49 = 0.40.

n 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00 ln 0.05 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.30 0.34 0.37 0.41 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.56 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.67 0.69 n 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 ln 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.92 0/94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.10

STEP 4: Choose a climate sensitivity coefficient c from the table below – Coefficient c ... SPPI minimum SPPI central SPPI maximum IPCC minimum IPCC central IPCC maximum

... for C° 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.7 6.5

... for F° 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.25 8.5 11.75

STEP 5: Find the temperature change ΔT by multiplying the natural logarithm of the proportionate increase in CO2 concentration by your climate sensitivity coefficient. In our example we’ll choose the SPPI central estimate c = 2.50 F. Then –

ΔT = c ln(C/B) = 2.50 x 0.40 = 1.0 F°, your predicted manmade warming to 2100. It’s as simple as that!

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Your Zone How to calculate the effect of CO2 on temperature for yourself

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Why cutting carbon emissions can never be cost-effective

A very simple calculation demonstrates definitively and conclusively that any attempt to address the imagined (and imaginary) “problem” of “global warming” is doomed not to be cost-effective. NOAA’s global CO2 concentration record shows 388 parts per million by volume in the atmosphere in 2009/10. Throughout this millennium CO2 concentration has been rising in a straight line at 2ppmv/year, as our CO2 concentration graphs show every month. How much warming will this 2 ppmv/year increase cause? Using the formula for the UN’s implicit central estimate of CO2’s warming effect, taken from our Ready Reckoner, we can work this out thus: the warming, in Celsius degrees, is 4.7 times the Naperian logarithm of [(388+2)/388], which works out as 0.024 C° per year, or less than one-fortieth of a Celsius degree. So we should have to shut down the entire global carbon economy for 41 years, without any right to use an auto, train, or plane, to prevent just 1 Celsius degree of warming. However, the UN has exaggerated CO2’s warming effect at least fourfold, so make that 160 years. Closing the entire carbon economy would in effect close the entire global economy. And all this for the sake of a non-solution to a non-problem.

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The Monthly CO2 Report summarizes key recent scientific papers, selected from those featured weekly at www.co2science.org, that significantly add to our understanding of the climate question. This month we review papers about the carbon sequestration power of the Earth's plants, coral calcification, European heat waves of the future, and atmospheric CO2 growth stimulation of plant roots. Our final paper gives evidence that the Middle Ages were warmer than today.

Thirty-Second Summary

As the air's CO2 content continues to rise, so also is the planet's terrestrial vegetation becoming ever more productive. The dominant reef-building corals of the tropical Atlantic Ocean grow more readily in warmer waters. Previously neglected vegetation-induced feedbacks in state-of-the-art climate models, when finally included, substantially reduces

the undesirable characteristics of projected heat waves. Atmospheric CO2 enrichment appears to give roots – especially those of trees – what it takes to grow ever deeper to acquire more

of what they need to maintain their elevated-CO2-provided potential to grow ever more abundantly. Was there a Medieval Warm Period? YES, according to data published by 857 individual scientists from 511 separate research

institutions in 43 different countries in the CO2Science Medieval Warm Period Project database ... and counting! View an interactive map here: http://www.co2science.org/data/timemap/mwpmap.html.

Greening of the Earth thanks to increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

Tans, P. 2009. An accounting of the observed increase in oceanic and atmospheric CO2 and an outlook for the future. Oceanography 22: 26-35. Periodically, even in some of the world's most prestigious scientific journals, it is said that the natural sinks of earth's carbon cycle are becoming ever less effective in removing from the atmosphere the CO2 that we routinely release to it as a result of our energy-intensive activities (Canadell et al., 2007; LeQuere et al., 2007). Now, however, that scientific myth appears to have been put to rest by a new analysis of real-world data.

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : New Science BREAKING NEWS IN THE JOURNALS, FROM www.co2science.org

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In a study published in the December 2009 issue of Oceanography that considered a number of related topics, NOAA's Pieter Tans employed measurements of atmospheric and oceanic carbon contents, along with reasonably constrained estimates of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, to calculate the residual fluxes of carbon (in the form of CO2) from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere (+) or from the atmosphere to the terrestrial biosphere (-), obtaining the results depicted in the figure below.

Figure 1. Five-year smoothed rates of carbon transfer from land to air (+) or from air to land (–) vs. time. Adapted from Tans (2009).

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As can be seen from this figure, the Earth's land surfaces were a net source of CO2-carbon to the atmosphere until about 1940, primarily owing to the felling of forests and the plowing of grasslands to make way for expanded agricultural activities. From 1940 onward, however, the terrestrial biosphere has become, in the mean, an increasingly greater sink for CO2-carbon; and it has done so even in the face of massive global deforestation, for which it has more than compensated. In light of these findings, and because they do “not depend on models” but “only on the observed atmospheric increase and estimates of fossil fuel emissions”, Tans concluded that “suggestions that the carbon cycle is becoming less effective in removing CO2 from the atmosphere (e.g., LeQuere et al., 2007; Canadell et al., 2007) can perhaps be true locally, but they do not apply globally, not over the 50-year atmospheric record, and not in recent years”. He adds: “To the contrary, … despite global fossil fuel emissions increasing from 6.57 billion tons of carbon in 1999 to 8.23 in 2006, the five-year smoothed global atmospheric growth rate has not increased during that time, which requires more effective uptake [of CO2] either by the ocean or by the terrestrial biosphere, or both, to satisfy atmospheric observations.” The results portrayed in the figure we have adapted from Tans' paper clearly indicate that this “more effective uptake” of CO2-carbon has occurred primarily over land. This observation-based analysis of real-world data substantially verifies both the reality and the tremendous strength of the CO2-induced greening of the Earth, which has been observed in numerous independent studies conducted throughout the world. In addition, it refutes the unfounded arguments of climate-extremists, who contend that various environmental stresses and resource limitations will not allow the full potential of the well-documented aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment to be manifest in nature. Indeed, this phenomenon is itself a "force of nature" that can be neither hindered nor halted, as it bestows its blessings upon wild and domesticated plants alike, without regard for artificial boundaries drawn on maps or the political persuasions of Man. Additional references from this review can be found at http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N30/EDIT.php. Temperature dependence of Cuban coral calcification rates

Carricart-Ganivet, J.P. and Gonzalez-Diaz, P. 2009. Growth characteristics of skeletons of Montastraea annularis (Cnidaria: Scleractinia) from the northwest coast of Cuba. Ciencias Marinas 35: 237-243.

Climate-extremists and the IPCC continue to contend that rising temperatures are harmful to earth's corals, and that in concert with ocean “acidification” (caused by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations) they are gradually reducing their rates of calcification. But is this really so? Working at two reef sites on the northwest coast of Cuba – one in the Guanahacabibes Gulf just off the Pinar del Rio Province and the other north of Havana Bay – Carricart-Ganivet and Gonzalez-Diaz (2009) measured yearly coral extension rates and densities of the dominant Caribbean reef-building coral Montastraea annularis for the period 1991 to 2003, from which data they calculated annual coral calcification

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rates. They then plotted their results against mean annual sea surface temperature from the UK's Hadley Centre and compared their results with those of Carricart-Ganivet (2004), who had developed a similar relationship between coral calcification rate and annual average sea-surface temperatures based on data collected from colonies of the same coral species at several localities in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The results of the two investigations are presented in the figure below, where it can be seen that they are totally compatible with each other.

Figure 1. Mean yearly calcification rate of Montastraea annularis vs. mean annual sea surface temperature for the several sites studied by Carricart-Ganivet (2004: blue circles) and the two sites studied by the authors (red circles). The line fitted to the data is described by: Calcification Rate = 0.51 x sea-surface temperature – 12.85, such that r2 = 0.82, and p < 0.002. Adapted from Carricart-Ganivet and Gonzalez-Diaz (2009).

In addition, when Carricart-Ganivet (2004) had earlier pooled his data with those of M. annularis and M. faveolata growing at Carrie Bow Cay, Belize, those from reefs at St. Croix in the US Virgin Islands, and those of M. faveolata at Curacao, Antilles, he also obtained a mean increase in calcification rate of ~0.5 g cm–2 yr–1 for each 1 C° increase in annual average sea-surface temperatures. Despite the bad-mouthing of CO2-induced “global warming” and ocean “acidification” by the world's climate-extremists, the dominant reef-building corals of the tropical Atlantic Ocean seem not only to do fine, but actually to do better, whenever the waters within which they grow periodically warm. The additional reference from this review of the paper can be found at http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N28/C2.php.

Future European heat-waves may not be as bad as had been predicted

Jeong, S.-J., Ho, C.-H., Kim, K.-Y., Kim, J., Jeong, J.-H. and Park, T.-W. 2010. Potential impact of vegetation feedback on European heat waves in a 2 x CO2 climate. Climatic Change 99: 625-635.

Jeong et al. (2010) state that modeling studies in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report suggest that future heat waves over Europe will be more severe, longer lasting and more frequent than those of the recent past, largely owing to an

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intensification of quasi-stationary anticyclone anomalies accompanying future warming, citing in support of this statement the publications of Meehl and Tebaldi (2004) and Della-Marta et al. (2007). However, in conducting their own analysis on the subject, Jeong et al. investigated “the impact of vegetation-climate feedback on the changes in temperature and the frequency and duration of heat waves in Europe under the condition of doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration in a series of global climate model experiments”, where land surface processes are calculated by the Community Land Model (version 3) described by Oleson et al. (2004), which includes a modified version of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena scheme for computing vegetation establishment and phenology for specified climate variables. So what did they find? The six scientists say their calculations indicate that “the projected warming of 4 C° over most of Europe with static vegetation has been reduced by 1 C° as the dynamic vegetation feedback effects are included”, adding that “examination of the simulated surface energy fluxes suggests that additional greening in the presence of vegetation feedback effects enhances evapotranspiration and precipitation, thereby limiting the warming, particularly in the daily maximum temperature”. They add: “The greening also tends to reduce the frequency and duration of heat-waves.” Although Jeong et al.'s findings by no means constitute the final word on the subject of the ultimate climatic consequences of a doubling of the air's CO2 content, they indicate just how easily the incorporation of a new suite of knowledge, in even the best climate models of the day, can dramatically alter what the IPCC and other climate-extremist organizations and individuals present as though it were reality. The world of nature is so extremely complex that it is the height of arrogance – or depth of ignorance – to believe that the world's climate modelers are anywhere near being able to represent mathematically all that needs to be mathematically represented in a model of sufficient complexity faithfully to reproduce what actually happens in the real world of nature, and over the many orders of magnitude that they are reluctant to acknowledge are absolutely essential to obtain the answers we all seek. The correct answers are obviously still a long ways off. Additional references from this review can be found at http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N27/C1.php. The depths to which some roots will go

Iversen, C.M. 2010. Digging deeper: Fine-root responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration in forested ecosystems. New Phytologist 186: 346-357.

Colleen Iversen of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, reviewed the scientific literature “to examine the potential mechanisms for, and consequences of, deeper rooting distributions under elevated CO2 as they relate to ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycling”, focusing primarily on forests (Iversen, 2010). According to her findings, “experimental evidence from a diverse set of forested ecosystems indicates that fine roots of trees exposed to elevated CO2 are distributed more deeply in the soil profile relative to trees grown under ambient CO2

” . As an example, she reports that “in a FACE experiment in a sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) plantation, Iversen et al.

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(2008) found that, over nine years, there was a 220% stimulation in cumulative carbon inputs from fine roots under elevated CO2 at 45-60 cm soil depth, compared with a 30% stimulation of root carbon inputs at 0-15 cm depth … Pritchard et al. (2008a) found a similar response in a CO2-enriched loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) plantation”. She finds that "of those experiments that examined rooting depth responses to elevated CO2, 73% found deeper rooting distributions”. She adds: "Increased proliferation at depth in the soil has not been limited to fine roots: increased production of mycorrhizas (Pritchard et al., 2008b) and coarse roots (Liberloo et al., 2006) also occurred deeper in the soil under CO2 enrichment.” Speaking of what many have called the progressive nitrogen limitation hypothesis, Iversen says: A disconnect between observed root dynamics and modeled nutrient availability has confounded projections of forest responses to elevated CO2 … while models predict that soil nitrogen availability will limit forest responses to elevated CO2 (Thornton et al., 2007), many of the forested FACE experiments found a sustained increase in nitrogen uptake from the soil in response to CO2 enrichment (Finzi et al., 2007) … There has been much speculation on the source of this ‘extra’ nitrogen (Johnson, 2006), and a greater cumulative amount of nitrogen available at depth in the soil may be the answer (i.e. a ‘bigger box’ of nitrogen when deeper soil depths are considered)”. Additional references from this review can be found at http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N28/B1.php. The Middle Ages were warmer than today: Grotta Savi, Southeast Italian Alps

Frisia, S., Borsato, A., Spotl, C., Villa, I.M. and Cucchi, F. 2005. Climate variability in the SE Alps of Italy over the past 17,000 years reconstructed from a stalagmite record. Boreas 34: 445-455.

Working with stalagmite SV1 from Grotta Savi, a cave located at the southeast margin of the European Alps in Italy (45°37'05" N, 13°53'10" E), the authors developed a 17,000-year history of speleothem calcite δ18OC data, which they calibrated against measured air temperatures of the past 500 years. Based on the results presented in their Figure 6c and the δ18OC temperature relationship presented in their paper, it can be concluded that the peak warmth of the Medieval Warm Period (~900 AD) was slightly warmer than the mean temperature from 1950-2000.

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Middle Ages: real, global, warmer than today

The Climategate emails reveal some of the tricks the IPCC’s leading “scientists” used in an attempt falsely to abolish the Medieval Warm Period, so that they could pretend that today’s temperatures are warmer than at any time in the past 1300 years. However, this graph from www.science-skeptical.de, a German website, shows graphs from scientific papers that examined proxy temperature data from all parts of the world. Visit the ScienceSkeptical.de website for an interactive version of the graph.

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