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TRANSCRIPT
3 × 2 × 3
18× 17
0.900.85 0.83
0.73
0.56
0.41
0.32
0.250.20
0.12
0.90
0.800.74
0.71
0.61
0.42
0.29
0.17
0.110.08
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Prob
abilit
y of
Opt
ion
1
Decision
Original probabilityAdjusted probablity
i j
Uij Vij
ϵij
Vij
Xj
i
Si
i j
Uij = U(Xj, Si) = V (Xj, Si) + ϵij
A B i
j ∈ {A,B} ≡ J Uij Uik(k ̸= j, k ∈ J)
i j
Pi(j) = Pr(Uij > Uik, k ̸= j, k ∈ J)
= Pr(Vij + ϵij > Vik + ϵik, k ̸= j, k ∈ J)
= Pr(ϵij − ϵik > Vik − Vij, k ̸= j, k ∈ J)
Pr(·)
Pi(j) =eVij
eVij + eVik
Xj Si
V (Xj, Si) = V (x11, ..., xhl, ..., si1, ..., siq, ...)
hl h l
j iq q i
V (Xj, Si) =!
h
(βhlxhl +!
q
γhlqxhl × siq)
xhl
βhl γhlq
V (Xj , Si) = β11LCF public+ β12LCF dividends+ β21RS pension
+ β31RL physical + β32RL dividends
+ γ11qLCF partial × siq + γ12qLCF dividends× siq + γ21qRS pension× siq
+ γ31qRL physical × siq + γ32qRL dividends× siq
×
×
× × ×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗
×
×
× × ×∗
∗∗
∗∗∗∗
×∗
∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗
×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗
× × ×∗
∗
N d.f.
∗p<
0.10
∗∗p<
0.05
∗∗∗p<
0.01
0.227 0.199 0.2900.055
0.411
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends
A: Politial Trust in Local Goverment
0.770 0.794
0.235
-0.240
0.735
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends
B: Politial Distrust in Local Goverment
-0.0030.200 0.118
-0.159-0.203
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends
C: Politial Trust in Village
-0.349 -0.250
0.259
-0.403
-1.174
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends
D: Politial Distrust in Village
-0.413 -0.360
0.227
-0.193-0.692
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends
E: Risk Averse
-0.505 -0.541
-0.0740.013 -0.304
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
LCF_public LCF_dividends RS_pension RL_physical RL_dividends
F: Risk Seeking
LCF public×Risk seeking LCF dividends×Risk seeking
RL dividends× Income
Trust LG × RS pension
Distrust village × RL dividends
Trust village× LCF dividends
× ∗∗ ∗
× ∗ ∗∗ ∗
× ∗ ∗∗
× ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗
× ∗∗ ∗∗
× ∗∗∗ ∗∗
× ∗∗ ∗
× ∗
× ∗∗
N
d.f.
∗ p < 0.10 ∗∗ p < 0.05 ∗∗∗ p < 0.01
LCF public LCF dividends
×
×
× × ×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗
×
×
× × ×∗
∗∗∗
∗∗
×∗
∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗
×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗
× × ×
N d.f.
∗p<
0.10
∗∗p<
0.05
∗∗∗p<
0.01
×
×
× × ×∗
∗∗
∗∗∗
×∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗
×∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗
×∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗
× ×
×∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
×
× × × ×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗∗
N d.f.
∗p<
0.10
∗∗p<
0.05
∗∗∗p<
0.01
∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗
∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗
×
×∗∗
× × ×
×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗
×∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗
× ×∗
×
×
×∗∗
∗∗∗∗
∗∗∗
∗
× ×∗
∗
×