stat - global pulses conclave
TRANSCRIPT
Global Pulses Conclave — 2014
BRIAN CLANCEYWWW.STATPUB.COM
www.statpub.com
Price Influences• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
www.statpub.com
Bulk vs. Container Freight
Graph prepared by the USDA. Bulk rates are based on data from O’Neil Commodity Consulting, Inc.Container rates are based on data from Drewry Shipping Consulting
www.statpub.com
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
AllPeasWheatCanola
Canada Bulk Exports to Feb 9(million metric tons)
www.statpub.com
Price Influences• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
Major Pulse Currencies(2004 = 100)
www.statpub.com
Rupee weakens faster
Canadian Red Lentils(per metric ton track Vancouver)
www.statpub.com
Weak Rupee
Canada Yellow Peas(per metric ton delivered Vancouver)
www.statpub.com
Weak Rupee
Canadian Yellow Pea Price(grower versus export price)
www.statpub.com
Weak Dollar
www.statpub.com
Outside Influences• Transportation
• Currency volatility
• Competition for acres
• Weather
Competition For Acres(2004 = 100)
www.statpub.com
Pulses Less Competitive
Pulse Index as % of Grains(2004 = 100)
www.statpub.com
World pulse area jumped 15% in
2010
Pulse Index as % of Oilseeds(2004 = 100)
www.statpub.com
Pulse area fell 21% in export countries in
2011
www.statpub.com
2014 Outlook• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
www.statpub.com
World Pulse Production(million metric tons)
Exporters India Other2014-15 9.9 18.6 22.02009-13 9.9 17.3 22.42006-10 9.1 14.9 21.92001-05 8.5 12.9 20.71996-2000 8.7 13.8 18.01991-95 7.1 13.4 20.7
www.statpub.com
World Pulse Production(percent share of total)
Exporters India Other2014-15 20% 40% 40%2010-14 20% 37% 43%2005-09 20% 32% 48%2000-04 21% 31% 48%1995-99 20% 35% 45%1990-94 16% 31% 53%
www.statpub.com
2014 Outlook• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
www.statpub.com
World Pea Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013 2014
Canada 3,217,800 3,849,000 3,301,000Russia 1,580,400 1,684,000 2,197,000France 686,600 533,000 575,000United States 578,000 709,000 729,000Australia 356,400 342,000 334,000World 10,268,000 11,162,000 11,164,000The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
World Pea Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 6,600,000 7,020,000 7,170,000 Production 10,490,000 11,162,000 11,164,000 Carry-in 680,000 370,000 820,000 Supply 11,180,000 11,532,000 11,984,000
Trade 4,030,000 4,420,000 4,580,000 Inferred Use 10,440,000 10,712,000 11,304,000 Ending Stock 730,000 820,000 680,000 Stock-Use Ratio 7% 8% 6%
www.statpub.com
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
www.statpub.com
World Lentil Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013 2014
Australia 256,600 253,000 264,000Canada 1,705,600 1,881,000 1,766,000United States 268,000 228,000 193,000Turkey 378,400 300,000 463,000Other 1,696,200 1,149,000 1,371,000World 4,304,800 3,811,000 4,057,000
The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
World Lentil Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 4,090,000 3,808,000 3,725,000 Production 4,300,000 3,811,000 4,057,000 Carry-in 580,000 373,000 245,000 Supply 4,880,000 4,184,000 4,302,000
Trade 2,170,000 2,438,000 2,246,000 Inferred Use 4,280,000 3,939,000 4,009,000 Ending Stock 600,000 245,000 293,000 Stock-Use Ratio 14% 6% 7%
www.statpub.com
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
www.statpub.com
2014 Outlook• Shifting production
• Peas and Lentils
• Beans and Chickpeas
www.statpub.com
World Dry Bean Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013 2014
China 1,437,000 1,312,000 1,736,000Argentina 264,600 96,000 294,000Brazil 3,263,400 3,311,000 3,180,000Mexico 2,418,000 2,537,000 2,583,000United States 4,550,200 4,800,000 4,627,000World 23,247,800 23,107,000 23,773,000The 5-year average covers 2009 to 2013
World Bean Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 29,250,000 29,074,000 29,652,000 Production 23,250,000 23,107,000 23,773,000 Carry-in 820,000 505,000 612,000 Supply 24,070,000 23,612,000 24,385,000
Trade 4,260,000 3,913,000 4,386,000 Inferred Use 23,280,000 23,000,000 23,583,000 Ending Stock 790,000 612,000 802,000 Stock-Use Ratio 4% 2% 3%
www.statpub.com
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
www.statpub.com
World Chickpea Production(metric tons)
5-Year Average
2013-14 2014-15
Kabuli
India 502,000
515,000 438,000
Turkey 563,000 325,000 390,000Mexico 132,000 195,000 135,000All Kabuli 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000
Desi
9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000The 5-year average covers 200-09 to 2012-13
World Kabuli Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 1,943,000 1,878,000 1,826,000 Production 1,973,000 1,887,000 1,858,000 Carry-in 193,000 361,000 369,000 Supply 2,165,000 2,248,000 2,227,000
Trade 420,000 504,000 465,000 Inferred Use 1,928,000 1,879,000 1,976,000 Ending Stock 238,000 369,000 251,000 Stock-Use Ratio 12% 20% 13%
www.statpub.com
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
World Desi Supply-Demand(metric tons)
5-year average 2013-14 2014-15
Area (hectares) 10,666,000 11,410,000 12,218,000 Production 9,500,000 10,804,000 11,475,000 Carry-in 76,000 4,000 56,000 Supply 9,576,000 10,808,000 11,531,000
Trade 868,000 392,000 224,000 Inferred Use 9,514,000 10,752,000 11,472,000 Ending Stock 62,000 56,000 59,000 Stock-Use Ratio 1% 1% 1%
www.statpub.com
The 5-year average covers 2009-10 to 2013-14
www.statpub.com
Conclusions• General increase in pulse area
• Stronger weather events
• India leading increase in output