state financing of higher education · state financing of higher education new america foundation...
TRANSCRIPT
State Financing of
Higher Education
New America
Foundation
March 1, 2012
Paul Lingenfelter, SHEEO
Composition of Total State Expenditures by Function,
Fiscal 1987 - 2009
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, 2009 State Expenditure Report
State General Fund Expenditures, FY 1990 & 2009
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers, 1990 & 2009 State Expenditure Report
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Elementaryand Secondary
Education
All Other Medicaid HigherEducation
Corrections PublicAssistance
Transportation
1990
2009
-0.5 -1
.0
-1.0 -1
.6 -2.1
-2.3 -2
.8
-2.9
-3.0 -3
.3 -3.8
-3.9 -4
.2
-4.2
-4.3
-4.3
-4.4
-4.4 -4
.8
-4.8
-4.8 -5
.1
-5.2
-5.2
-5.3 -5
.6
-5.6
-5.7
-5.7
-5.8
-5.8
-5.9 -6
.2
-6.3
-6.5
-6.7
-6.8
-6.9
-7.0
-7.0 -7
.4 -8.0
-8.2
-8.9 -9
.3-9
.3 -9.8
-10
.5
-10
.7
-5.7
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
Utah
Montana
New
Ham
pshireDelaw
areNew
JerseyMaine
Maryland
Massachusetts
WisconsinVerm
ontOhio
North D
akotaConnecticut
Kansas
ArkansasVirginia
Nebraska
Oklahom
aMinnesotaColorado
West V
irginiaKentucky
MichiganArizona
New
York
GeorgiaHaw
aiiIllinois
Pennsylvania
Alaska
Rhode Island
United S
tates
New
Mexico
California
Iowa
IndianaNorth C
arolinaFloridaIdaho
South C
arolinaSouth D
akotaMissouri
WashingtonOregonTexas
Nevada
TennesseeMississippiLouisianaAlabam
a
Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2005.
Projected state and local budget deficits as a percent of revenues, 2013
$7,4
79
$7,8
55
$7,9
93
$7,9
88
$7,8
69
$7,8
25
$7,6
07
$7,1
71
$6,9
12
$6,9
94
$7,2
27
$7,3
11
$7,5
47
$7,7
70
$7,9
61
$8,0
35
$8,0
76
$7,7
75
$7,2
11
$6,7
40
$6,6
62
$6,9
86
$7,1
95
$7,3
25
$6,9
51
$6,4
51
$2,2
74
$2,3
71
$2,4
34
$2,5
01
$2,5
50
$2,6
08
$2,6
91
$2,9
03
$3,0
82
$3,1
86
$3,2
71
$3,3
87
$3,4
19
$3,4
31
$3,4
28
$3,3
37
$3,3
48
$3,3
56
$3,4
31
$3,6
11
$3,7
60
$3,9
35
$4,0
68
$4,1
16
$4,1
78
$4,3
21
$-
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.019
85
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
Do
llar
s p
er F
TE
Pu
bli
c F
TE
En
roll
men
t (M
illi
on
s)
Public FTE Enrollment and Educational Appropriations per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1985-2010
Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment (millions)
Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service are included in the above figures.Constant 2010 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA).
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
Educational Appropriations per FTE by State, FY 2010, Adjusted by COLA and EMI
Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service are included in the above figures.
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
Cal
ifo
rnia
Was
hin
gto
n
Flo
rid
a
Mo
nta
na
Uta
h
Ore
go
n
Co
lora
do
Geo
rgia
New
Mex
ico
Kan
sas
Oh
io
Lo
uis
ian
a
Mis
sou
ri
Ind
ian
a
New
Ham
psh
ire
Haw
aii
Wis
con
sin
Idah
o
Nev
ada
US
Min
nes
ota
Neb
rask
a
Mas
sach
use
tts
Vir
gin
ia
Iow
a
Ari
zon
a
So
uth
Dak
ota
No
rth
Car
oli
na
New
Yo
rk
Ten
nes
see
Ark
ansa
s
So
uth
Car
oli
na
Illi
no
is
Ala
bam
a
Ok
lah
om
a
Wes
t V
irg
inia
No
rth
Dak
ota
Mic
hig
an
Ken
tuck
y
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Tex
as
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
Mar
ylan
d
Mai
ne
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
New
Jer
sey
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Ver
mo
nt
Wyo
min
g
Del
awar
e
Ala
ska
Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (adjusted by COLA and EMI)
Educational Approriations per FTE (adjusted by COLA and EMI)
-27.4%
-3.2%
26.6%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
New
Mex
ico
Mic
hig
an
Flo
rid
a
Kan
sas
New
Jer
sey
Ind
ian
a
So
uth
Car
oli
na
Geo
rgia
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
Oh
io
New
Ham
psh
ire
Nev
ada
Idah
o
Mis
sou
ri
Ore
go
n
Ver
mo
nt
Vir
gin
ia
Mas
sach
use
tts
Cal
ifo
rnia
Was
hin
gto
n
Uta
h
Mai
ne
So
uth
Dak
ota
Ten
nes
see
Min
nes
ota US
Iow
a
Wis
con
sin
Del
awar
e
Wes
t V
irg
inia
Ken
tuck
y
Ari
zon
a
Ala
bam
a
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Ark
ansa
s
Wyo
min
g
New
Yo
rk
Mar
ylan
d
Neb
rask
a
Illi
no
is
Haw
aii
No
rth
Car
oli
na
Lo
uis
ian
a
Mo
nta
na
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Ala
ska
Co
lora
do
Tex
as
Ok
lah
om
a
No
rth
Dak
ota
Educational Appropriations per FTE Percent Change by State, Fiscal 2005-2010
Note: Dollars adjusted by 2010 HECA, Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix Index.
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
23.3%
29.3%
34.7%40.3%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
Net Tuition as a Percent of Public Higher Education Total Educational RevenueU.S., Fiscal 1985-2010
Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service is included in net tuition revenue, but excluded from total educational revenue in calculating the above figures.
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
Recession
5 year
10 year
25 year
12.4%
40.3%
83.7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Wyo
min
g
New
Mex
ico
No
rth
Car
oli
na
Geo
rgia
Cal
ifo
rnia
Ala
ska
Idah
o
Nev
ada
Lo
uis
ian
a
Was
hin
gto
n
Haw
aii
Flo
rid
a
New
Yo
rk
Illi
no
is
Ok
lah
om
a
Tex
as
Ten
nes
see
Wis
con
sin
Neb
rask
a
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Mis
sou
ri
US
Uta
h
Co
nn
ecti
cut
Ken
tuck
y
Ark
ansa
s
Ari
zon
a
Kan
sas
Mas
sach
use
tts
Min
nes
ota
Mar
ylan
d
No
rth
Dak
ota
New
Jer
sey
Mo
nta
na
Ore
go
n
Ala
bam
a
Iow
a
Vir
gin
ia
Wes
t V
irg
inia
Oh
io
Mai
ne
So
uth
Car
oli
na
Ind
ian
a
Co
lora
do
So
uth
Dak
ota
Mic
hig
an
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
Del
awar
e
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
New
Ham
psh
ire
Ver
mo
nt
Net Tuition as a Percent of Public Higher Education Total Educational Revenue by State, Fiscal 2010
Note: Dollars adjusted by 2010 HECA, Cost of Living Adjustment, and Enrollment Mix.
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09
State Need-Based and Nonneed-Based Grants for Undergraduate StudentsConstant 2009 Dollars
Need-based Grants Nonneed-based Grants
Source: 40th Annual Survey Report on State-Sponsored Student Financial Aid, NASSGAP
Constant 2009 dollars adjusted using CPI
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000A
rizo
na
New
Ham
psh
ire
Iow
a
Haw
aii
Kan
sas
Mic
hig
an
So
uth
Dak
ota
Uta
h
Idah
o
Oh
io
Mo
nta
na
Mis
siss
ipp
i
Ala
bam
a
Mai
ne
No
rth
Dak
ota
New
Mex
ico
Rh
od
e Is
lan
d
Mis
sou
ri
Ore
go
n
Tex
as
Ark
ansa
s
Mar
ylan
d
Wis
con
sin
Ver
mo
nt
Del
awar
e
Cal
ifo
rnia
Vir
gin
ia
Mas
sach
use
tts
Min
nes
ota US
Co
lora
do
Pen
nsy
lvan
ia
Illi
no
is
Ind
ian
a
Ok
lah
om
a
No
rth
Car
oli
na
Was
hin
gto
n
Lo
uis
ian
a
Ken
tuck
y
Flo
rid
a
New
Yo
rk
Wes
t V
irg
inia
New
Jer
sey
Wyo
min
g
Ten
nes
see
So
uth
Car
oli
na
Geo
rgia
State Aid to Students Attending Public Institutions per FTEFY 2010
Source: SHEEO SSDB
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Public and Non-Public Aid per $100 of State SupportConstant 2010 Dollars
Public Aid per $100 of State Support Non-Public Aid per $100 of State SupportSource: SHEEO SSDB
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000
99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
Federal Student Aid per FTEConstant 2009 Dollars
Education Tax Benefits Federal Loans Pell Grants Other Federal Programs
Source: Trends in College Pricing, The College Board, 2010
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Pell Grant Trends 1977-2010
Total Pell Expenditures (in Millions) Maximum Pell Grant
Average Pell Grant per Recipient Number of Pell Recipients (in Thousands)
Source: The Federal Pell Grant Program End of Year Report, 2008-09 and projections from U.S. Department of Education, Office of Postsecondary Education.
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1976
-77
1977
-78
1978
-79
1979
-80
198
0-8
1
198
1-8
2
198
2-8
3
198
3-8
4
198
4-8
5
198
5-8
6
198
6-8
7
198
7-8
8
198
8-8
9
198
9-9
0
199
0-9
1
199
1-9
2
199
2-9
3
199
3-9
4
199
4-9
5
199
5-9
6
199
6-9
7
199
7-9
8
199
8-9
9
199
9-0
0
200
0-0
1
200
1-0
2
200
2-0
3
200
3-0
4
200
4-0
5
200
5-0
6
200
6-0
7
200
7-0
8
200
8-0
9
200
9-1
0
Pell Grant Recipients and Fall Headcount Enrollment
Fall Enrollment Number of Pell Recipients Pell Recipients as a Percentage of Fall Enrollment
Source: The Federal Pell Grant Program End of Year Report, 2008-09 and projections from U.S. Department of Education, Office of Postsecondary Education and the Digest of Education Statistics,
2010.
Degree attainment by SAT scores and
socioeconomic status
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
1200-1600 1100-1199 1000-1099 800-999 400-799
SAT Score
BA
+ A
ttain
ment R
ate
Top SES
2nd SES
3rd SES
Bottom SES
Source: Anthony Carnevale, Liberal Education, Fall 2008, p. 58.
FY 2011 – what will SHEF show?
State support (with ARRA help) essentially flat, while enrollments continue to grow, except in a few places
Tuition continues to grow
Support per student drops again
FY 2012 – what will SHEF show?
State support down 7.6 percent, with ARRA exhausted
Enrollments ?
Tuition continues to grow?
Support per student drops by X%?
Three Wrong Ideas
The right formula will provide all the amounts and incentives needed to yield great performance.
The only way to get improved performance is to spend more money.
We can get the results we need without spending more money.
Three “Right” Questions
What does the public need from higher education?
What can higher education do better with the money we have now?
Where can strategic investments help us get the results we need?
THANK YOU!