state of the cloud report 7.28.2015
TRANSCRIPT
State of the Cloud Report
2015Byron Deeter
www.bvp.com/cloud @bdeeter
AGENDA
• State of the Cloud Industry: Where are we today?
• Metrics that matter: How are we doing?
• The outlook ahead: What does it mean for me as a cloud CEO?
2
WE’VE HAD SOME SKEPTICS ABOUT CLOUD COMPUTING THROUGH THE YEARS…
“Mice Nuts”
Vacation time
=
The Innovator’s Dilemma
“Water Vapor” & “Nonsense” “It will be gone in two years”
3
BVP’s CLOUD INVESTMENTS
1997 2000 2010
ASP Delivery+
Recurring Rev
Cloud Computing
(SaaS + PaaS)
SaaS
2015 4
5
THEN…
<$25bn Total Cloud Market Cap
2008 - Top 10 Public Cloud Companies($ in mm)Count Company MarketCap1 Salesforce $7,4042 Netsuite $2,3323 Concur $1,5904 DealerTrack $1,3175 blackbaud $1,2476 AthenaHealth $1,1617 Ariba $8058 The Ultimate Software $7779 Taleo $74910 Constant Contact $594
Source: Public company data per CapIQ. 2008 as of 1/1/2008. Today as of 5/29/2015
…NOW!Today - Top 10 Public Cloud Companies
($ in mm)Count Company MarketCap1 Salesforce $50,5372 LinkedIn $26,2853 Workday $16,9154 ServiceNow $13,5175 NetSuite $7,7286 The Ultimate Software Group $4,9247 Athenahealth $4,8198 Veeva $4,1869 Medidata Solutions $3,30210 Proofpoint $2,847
6
THEN…
Source: Public company data per CapIQ. 2008 as of 1/1/2008. Today as of 5/29/2015
<$25bn Total Cloud Market Cap
~$180bn Total Cloud Market Cap
2008 - Top 10 Public Cloud Companies($ in mm)Count Company MarketCap1 Salesforce $7,4042 Netsuite $2,3323 Concur $1,5904 DealerTrack $1,3175 blackbaud $1,2476 AthenaHealth $1,1617 Ariba $8058 The Ultimate Software $7779 Taleo $74910 Constant Contact $594
CLOUD REVENUE
Source: Market size IDC, 2014. Public company data per CapIQ. Legacy software cloud revenue per AppsRunTheCloud survey on 2013 revenue and assumed growth cut in half for 2014. Private cloud unicorn data assuming average 20x rev multiple. 2008 market size from Forrester.
20087
$5.6bn
CLOUD REVENUE UP 10X IN LAST SIX YEARS
Source: Market size IDC, 2014. Public company data per CapIQ. Legacy software cloud revenue per AppsRunTheCloud survey on 2013 revenue and assumed half’d growth for 2014. Private cloud unicorn data assuming average 20x rev multiple. 2008 market size from Forrester.
8
$18bn
$9bn $3bn
$26bn
$56.6bn
Public Pure Play Cloud
Legacy Software Cloud Revenue
Private Cloud Unicorns
Private Cloud
2008 2014
$5.6bn
CAGR 35.8%
CLOUD REVENUE UP 10X IN LAST SIX YEARSPROJECTED TO GROW OVER 2X IN NEXT
FOUR
$18bn
$9bn $3bn
$26bn
$56.6bnCAGR 22.8%
% of Total
Number ofCompanies
47%
5%17%
32%
thousands
2811
42
Source: Market size IDC, 2014. Public company data per CapIQ. Legacy software cloud revenue per AppsRunTheCloud survey on 2013 revenue and assumed half’d growth for 2014. Private cloud unicorn data assuming average 20x rev multiple. 2008 market size from Forrester.
Public Pure Play Cloud
Legacy Software Cloud Revenue
Private Cloud Unicorns
Private Cloud
2008 20182014
$5.6bn
CAGR 35.8%
$127.5bn
9
SAAS APPROACHING 30% OF APPLICATION SPEND
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20180%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
On Prem SaaS
Source: IDC, Worldwide Enterprise Application Spend by SaaS and On-Prem, 2013-2018.
2013 -2018 CAGR
(2.8%)
17.6%
SaaS vs On Prem Penetration into Total Application Spend
10
THE FIRST CATEGORY HAS FALLEN: CLOUD CRM IS AT A TIPPING POINT
2013 -2018CAGR
19.6%
(3.9%)
2013 2016 20180%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
65%50% 38%
35%50% 62%
On-Prem Cloud
Source: IDC, Worldwide Enterprise Application Spend by SaaS and On-Prem, 2013-2018. Gartner Worldwide CRM Spending By Vendor, 2013.
16%
13%
10%7%4%
50%
Salesforce SAP OracleMicrosoft IBM Other
Source: IDC, Worldwide Enterprise Application Spend by SaaS and On-Prem, 2013-2018. Gartner Worldwide CRM Spending By Vendor, 2013.
Over 50% of CRM revenue will be cloud In 2016… …and Salesforce is already the market share leader!
11
2015 CRM BATTLE - CLOUD 1 : ON PREM 0
WE’RE JUST SEEING THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG!
42 Public Pure PlayCloud Companies
28 Private CloudUnicorns
thousands Existing Private Cloud Companies
? New Cloud Companies Yet To Be Formed!
Only 3 % Penetrated in IT Spend
Source: Gartner, estimates per 2013. Cloud spend of $39bn includes SaaS, PaaS and IaaS. Overall IT spend of $1.428tn includes Data Center Systems, Enterprise Software and IT Services
300 UP AND COMERS IDENTIFIED IN THE CLOUDSCAPE…
14Originally published in 2014. Updated versions will be available at www.bvp.com/cloud
...28 OF WHICH HAVE GROWN INTOPRIVATE CLOUD $1B+ BUSINESSES …
DropboxStr
ipe
Zenefits
Cloudera
Atlassi
an
Pure Storage
DocuSig
nSla
ck
NutanixDomo
Surve
yMonke
y
Mongo DB
InsideSa
les.com
MuleSoft
Jasper
AppNexus
Sprin
klrTwilio
AppDynamics
Actifio
Cloudflare
Evernote
Good Technology
Eventbrit
e
Looko
ut
Qualtrics
PluralSight
Marklogic
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0 $10
$5 $5 $4$3 $3 $3 $3
$2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $2 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
Private CloudCompanies Valued
at$1bn
$ in bn
15Source: Valuation estimates based on publically reported press releases.
THE CLOUD INDUSTRY HAS OUTPERFORMED
Growth
~160%69% above the Nasdaq in
same time period
Exits
32
IPOs in BVP Cloud Index
Market Cap
+$140bnOf new market cap: from
$40bn to ~$180bn9
Public cloud acquisitions totaling$18.8bn in value
10
Cloud IPOs
Public Cloud Market Cap
~$40bnRepresenting
BVP Cloud Index Performance In the Last 3 Years
BVP Has Funded…
16Of the 42 Public Cloud
Companies
~1 /4Representing
Source: BVP Cloud Index and Capital IQ.
STRONG BVP CLOUD INDEX PERFORMANCE IN THE LAST YEAR
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Legacy software includes Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, SAP, HP, EMC, Adobe, Citrix, ADP
Welcome Shopify to the BVP Cloud Index!
42 Pure Play Public Cloud companies
100%
260%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
BVP Cloud Computing Index42 Publicly Traded Cloud CompaniesIndexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 5/29/15
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones
17
BVP CLOUD INDEX EXPECTED TO 3X IN 5 YEARS
Public Cloud Market Cap
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
6/2/2010 10/15/2011 2/26/2013 7/11/2014 11/23/2015 4/6/2017 8/19/2018 1/1/2020
~$1tn
~$500bn
~$300bn
We predict the BVP Cloud Index will Hit $500bn market cap by
2020
18Source: BVP Cloud Index and Capital IQ.
AGENDA
• State of the Cloud Industry: Where are we today?
• Metrics that matter: How are we doing?
• The outlook ahead: What does it mean for me as a cloud CEO?
19
PROFITS & CASH FLOW ARE ULTIMATELY KING
For All Types of Businesses…
Oil Producer Retailer Cloud Company
20
SIX KEY CLOUD VALUATION METRICS
ARR % ARR Growth Retention / Upsell
CAC Payback % Gross Margin Burn Rate / FCF
21
ARR AND ARR GROWTH ARE BEST LEADING INDICATORS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
T-4 T-2 T+0 T+2 T+4 T+6 T+8 T+10 T+12
$201
$253
$124
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
T-4 T-2 T+0 T+2 T+4 T+6 T+8 T+10 T+12
Pre IPO Post IPO1 Yr IPO 1 Yr 2 Yrs 3 Yrs
Top Quartile 91% 61% 42% 36% 33%Median 72% 47% 35% 34% 24%Bottom Quartile 42% 34% 26% 28% 22%
Inevitably growth decelerates with scale
Public Cloud Company Runrate Revenue Public Cloud Company YoY Growth
(Starting From Four Quarters Prior to IPO, $ in m) (Starting From Four Quarters Prior to IPO)
Source: SEC fillings. BVP Cloud Index public companies. T = Quarter 22
23Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
$10 $15 $23
$34 $51
($16)($24)
($36)
($54)
($81)
($8) ($12) ($18)($27)
($41)
CAC PAYBACKResulting P&L for 3 companies growing at 50% new bookings with different CAC paybacks
Total cash burn: $106MNew BookingsS&M CostsCash Flows (Gross Profit – S&M)
1 Yr CAC Payback 1.5 Yr CAC Payback 2 Yr CAC Payback
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
$10 $15 $23 $34
$51
($8) ($12) ($18)($27)
($41)
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
$10 $15 $23
$34 $51
($12) ($18)($27)
($41)
($61)
($4) ($6) ($9) ($14) ($20)
Total cash burn: $0M Total cash burn: $53M
Note: Assumed 50% growth in new bookings every year, 80% gross margin, and no other expenses. 23
RETENTION / UPSELL1% churn results in ~$20m ARR loss after 4 years
~$20m ARR delta
between 1% and 2%
monthly churn
1% net upsell churn
drives additional
$35mm ARR
Note: Assumes monthly new bookings increases by $10k per month.
3% monthly churn
1% net upsell monthly churn
1% monthly churn
2% monthly churn
24
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
$10 $10 $10 $10
$0
$8
$16
$24
-8
CAC PAYBACKCAC payback and retention are inter-related - strong upsell can counteract high churn
RevenueS&M CostsCash Flows (Gross Profit – S&M)
1 Yr CAC Payback, 100% Retention 2 Yr CAC Payback, 115% Retention
Note: Assumed 80% gross margin, and no other expenses.
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4
$10 $12 $13 $15
($8)
$1
$12
$24
-16
Results in same cash flow after 4 years
25
ARR % ARR Growth Retention / Upsell
CAC Payback % Gross Margin Burn Rate / FCF
CLOUD METRICS THAT PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INVESTORS ARE VALUING TODAY
26
GROWTH IS THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF CLOUD VALUATION
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0x
2x
4x
6x
8x
10x
12x
14x
16x
18x
f(x) = 15.8903499312364 x + 1.75600623498971R² = 0.394499390045924
'14-'15 Rev Growth vs 2015 Rev Mult
% '14-'15 Revenue Growth
2015
Rev
enue
Mul
tiple
0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 500%0x
5x
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
35x
40x
45x
f(x) = 6.61235045668493 x + 3.03456487451253R² = 0.450231422304107
1 Yr Forward Growth vs ARR Mult
% 1 Yr Forward Growth
ARR
Mul
tiple
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ Source: 55 private company transactions
Private Cloud CompaniesPublic Cloud Companies
+10% Growth Results in +1.5x Rev Mult +10% Growth Results in +0.6x Rev Mult
27
RETENTION IS TYPICALLY THE 2ND MAJOR DRIVER ON
VALUATION
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ
2015 - Public Cloud Companies
y = 5.8057x1.5288
R² = 0.1819
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
18.0x
50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%
% Retention vs 2015 Rev Mult
28
PRIVATE MARKETS ARE LESS FOCUSED ON RETENTION RATES IN CURRENT ENVIRONMENT
2015 – Private Cloud Companies2013 – Private Cloud Companies
y = 5.9847x + 2.185R² = 0.1954
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
ARR
Mul
tiple
Retention
Retention vs ARR Multiple
Source: 17 private company transactions
y = 1.4953x + 11.845R² = 0.0019
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
30.0x
35.0x
40.0x
45.0x
0% 50% 100% 150% 200%
ARR
Mul
tiple
Retention
Retention vs ARR Multiple
Source: 55 private company transactions29
STRONG BVP CLOUD INDEX PERFORMANCE IN THE LAST YEAR
100%
260%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
BVP Cloud Computing Index42 Publicly Traded Cloud CompaniesIndexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 5/29/15
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones
BVP Cloud Index up ~40% in the last year…
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Legacy software includes Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, SAP, HP, EMC, Adobe, Citrix, ADP. NTM represents next twelve months.
30
BVP CLOUD INDEX GROWTH DRIVEN FROM ORGANIC GROWTH NOT MULTIPLE EXPANSION
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Legacy software includes Microsoft, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, SAP, HP, EMC, Adobe, Citrix, ADP. NTM represents next twelve months.
5.7x
3.4x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
NTM Multiples Over Time
BVP Cloud Index Legacy Software
Peak - Jan 20149.5x
…Cloud multiples back down to historical averagesBVP Cloud Index up ~40% in the last year…
100%
260%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
220%
240%
260%
280%
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
BVP Cloud Computing Index42 Publicly Traded Cloud CompaniesIndexed as of Jan. 2011 | @ 5/29/15
BVP Cloud Index Nasdaq Index S&P Index Dow Jones 31
PRIVATE CLOUD MULTIPLES ARE TRADING AT A PREMIUM TO PUBLIC CLOUD MULTIPLES
5.7x
3.4x
0.0x
2.0x
4.0x
6.0x
8.0x
10.0x
12.0x
14.0x
16.0x
1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/2014 1/1/2015
NTM Multiples Over Time
BVP Cloud Index Legacy Software
11.8x
Private Cloud Transactions
Source: 42 companies in BVP Cloud Index as of 5/29/2015. CapIQ. Note: Private cloud transactions based on 55 private transactions in the last 6 months where 11.8x is average ARR run rate multiple. BVP Cloud Index multiple and Legacy software multiples are both NTM GAAP revenue.
32
Valuation Gap
Revenue Multiples
TAKEAWAY: GUARDRAILS FOR VALUATIONRepresentative SaaS Business ($20mm ARR)
50% 50-100% 100%+
85% 85-95% 95%+
24 mos 12-24mos <12 mos
minimal 100-125% 125%+
50-60% 60-75% 75%+
Key Factors
1 Yr Fwd Growth
CAC Payback
Gross $ Retention
Upsell Retention
Gross Margin
Team Product Competitive DynamicsTAM
Good Better Best
33
AGENDA
• State of the Cloud Industry: Where are we today?
• Metrics that matter: How are we doing?
• The outlook ahead: What does it mean for me as a cloud CEO?
34
THE OUTLOOK AHEAD
• The Cloud Wins– First category (CRM) goes over 50% cloud in 2016– Now at 42 public cloud companies in BVP Cloud Index – Welcome Shopify!– BVP Cloud Index crosses $500bn by 2020
• Major Trends & Coming Disruptions– Industry cloud comes of age– Cyber security a threat and an opportunity– B2D opportunity for developers and entrepreneurs– Further commoditization of IaaS– Cornered animals: More M&A from legacy vendors ahead– The dawn of enterprise mobile
35
INDUSTRY CLOUD ON THE RISE
1
2
3
Software adoption moved from “nice to have” to “table stakes”
Winner take most dynamic – can win 50% of a market
Mobile expands the non-desk workforce by 80%
2005 2010 2015$0$5
$10$15$20$25
$0.0 $1.5
$23.2
Market Cap ($ in bn)
# of Companies 0 2 12
Source: Capital IQNote: Public vertical SaaS companies include 2U, Athenahealth, Benefitfocus, Dealertrack Technologies, Fleetmatics Group, RealPage, Textura, Veeva, Q2 Holdings, Opower, Guidewire, Shopify
Public Industry Cloud Companies
Notable Private Industry Cloud Companies
Drivers of Industry Cloud
36
CYBER SECURITY: A HOT MARKET AND A KEY THREAT
37
B2D MARKET TAKING OFF
38
FURTHER GROWTH OF IAAS - GREAT FOR SAAS
2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$2.8$4.3
$6.0
$8.2
$11.2AWS Revenue ($ bn)
Source: Robert Baird & Co, 2015. Monthly uniques per Comscore, Feb 2015. 39
~80mm unique visitors a month 50 billion "pins" on Pinterest
MORE M&A AHEAD
40
• Classic Innovator’s Dilemma allowed cloud entrants to thrive
• Too late to build
• Too expensive to buy
• Will be fatal to many
Legacy Software vendors are cornered animals today
MOBILE IS A GAME CHANGER FOR THE ENTERPRISE
85%Americans between 18-29
50%Internet usage on mobile vs desktop
80%Workforce are non-desk workers
EVERYONE IN ENTERPRISE B2B NOW HAS A SMARTPHONE
INTERNET USAGE TIPPED TO MOBILE
REACHES AN UNTOUCHED WORKFORCE
Source: Pew Research Center, April, 2015, “The Smartphone Difference”. Source: eMarketer 9/14 (2008-2010), eMarketer 4/15 (2011-2015). Note: Other connected devices include OTT and game consoles. Mobile includes smartphone and tablet. Usage includes bothhome and work. Ages 18+; time spent with each medium includes all time spent with that medium, regardless of multitasking. KPCB Internet trends, 2015
Global Mobile Penetration 1995 - 2014
GLOBAL PENETRATION
1 –> 73%
41
THE MOST EXPENSIVE REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD
$ / Sq Ft $5k $10k $20kThe Penthouse @ One
Hyde Park, London $15k
17 Upper Phillimore Gardens $6k
Buckingham Palace $6kKennsington Palace $4k
$2mm+
Note: Assume each mobile icon is ½” (so 1 sq ft is equal to 576 mobile icons). Assume MAU is equal to mobile app installs. Uber - 450k WAU, 900k MAU (assume WAU x 2 = MAU) as of 12/2013. Valuation of $3.5bn as of 08/2013 Snapchat – 30m MAU at $10bn valuation as of 08/2014Whatsapp – 450m MAU at $19bn valuation as of 02/2014 Instagram – 30m MAU at $1bn valuation as of 04/2014
42
THE MOST EXPENSIVE REAL ESTATE IN THE WORLD
$ / Sq Ft $5k $10k $20kThe Penthouse @ One
Hyde Park, London $15k
17 Upper Phillimore Gardens $6k
Buckingham Palace $6kKennsington Palace $4k
$2mm+
$2.2m
$192k
$24k
$19k
Note: Assume each mobile icon is ½” (so 1 sq ft is equal to 576 mobile icons). Assume MAU is equal to mobile app installs. Uber - 450k WAU, 900k MAU (assume WAU x 2 = MAU) as of 12/2013. Valuation of $3.5bn as of 08/2013 Snapchat – 30m MAU at $10bn valuation as of 08/2014Whatsapp – 450m MAU at $19bn valuation as of 02/2014 Instagram – 30m MAU at $1bn valuation as of 04/2014
43
ENTERPRISE MOBILE HAS MORE MONETIZATION POTENTIAL THAN
CONSUMER MOBILE
…but enterprise apps are exploding # of enterprise mobile apps growing over 210% in 2014
20% of all developers globally are targeting enterprises, up from 16% just six months ago
1
2
Consumer Enterprise
1,258
142
# of Apps in IOS (units in 000s)
Enterprise 10% of IOS apps
Source: Appfigures, Statista (May 2015), Vision Mobile
…and enterprise apps have higher monetization potential
3
Enterprise
Consumer
31%
56%
26%
25%
25%
12%
9%
4%
9%
3%
$0-$1k $1-$10k $10k-$100k$100k-$500k $500K+
43% of enterprise apps make >$10k / mo vs 19% for consumer
apps
44
There are 10x more consumer apps than enterprise…
ENTERPRISE MOBILE WILL DISRUPT CLOUD
45
Become great on mobile, or your next challenger will!
A SPECIAL THANK YOU TO…
• Kristina Shen - great effort and insights in building this report
• Peter, Umair, Adam, Alex, Bob, Brian, Cecilia, David, Ethan, Felda, Jeff, Jeremy, Kent, Mark, Steve, Sunil & Sunil, Thea, Tiffany, Trevor, Vishal, and the rest of Bessemer’s cloud team
• The amazing cloud founders and executive teams we’ve had the privilege of working with and learning from
• Our awesome partners @ Bessemer Venture Partners, Salesforce Ventures, & Salesforce.com
• To download BVP content: www.bvp.com/cloud– BVP Cloud Industry Report www.bvp.com/cloudreport – BVP Cloud Index @ www.bvp.com/cloud/comps– BVP Cloudscape @ www.bvp.com/cloud– BVP Industry Software Revolution @ www.bvp.com/cloud – BVP Security for Startups – 10 Step Cybersecurity Plan @ www.bvp.com/cyber 46
Presented at Bessemer Venture Partners & Salesforce VenturesCloud CEO Summit, June 2015
For more information visit www.bvp.com/cloud @bdeeter @kshenster & @ bessemervp©2015 Bessemer Venture Partners