state of the community 2011

4th Annual State of the Community Report

Aaron NelsonChapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce

Foundation for a Sustainable Community

A Word From Our Sponsors

Triangle Community Foundation

- Dr. Phail Wynn - Interim Executive Director


www.OurLocalDeal.com◦Driving Business Local◦Connecting Businesses with New Customers

◦Saving Local People MoneyBig Discounts with Local Merchants

9,700 deals in 20 weeks valued at more than $420,000


Table Sponsors- Durham Technical Community College

- Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau

- UNC Health Care

A bit about Chamber and our FoundationThe Chamber

◦ Serve and advance the business interests of our 1,100 member employers- Improve members’ bottom line- Grow members’ professional network- Give members access to timely information and decision

makers- Advocate for member business interests and help build a

sustainable community where business can thrive Our Economic and Community Development Foundation

◦ Raised and invested more that $1 million to the community since 2004

◦ Launched Green Plus national small business education and certification program

◦ Accelerating Fourth Sector Enterprises

Background on this ReportOur Fourth State of the Community

ReportBorn out of graduate student research

at UNCSocial, Environmental and Economic

IndicatorsObjective: deliver relevant information

to community and business leadersThank you to Kristen Smith, director of

public policy and member engagment

PopulationJurisdiction 2000 2010 Growth Rate

Orange County 116,016 133,801

+17,785 (15.3%)

Hillsborough 5,513 6,087+574

(10.4%)

Carrboro 17,668 19,582+1,914 (10.8%)

Chapel Hill 48,038 57,233+9,195 (19.1%)

North Carolina 8,078,824 9,535,483

+1,456,659 (18.0%)

U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Census Bureau

Population Growth

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

116,016

133,801

17,668 19,582

48,038 57,233

5,513 6,087

Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough

Population Projections

County 2015 2020 Growth Rate

2025 Growth Rate

ALAMANCE 163,982 176,216+24,471 (13.9%) 188,451 +36,706

(23.8%)

CHATHAM 71,053 78,237+14,376 (18.4%) 85,422 +21,552

(33.0%)

DURHAM 296,200 323,474+54,549 (16.9%) 350,749 +81,824

(29.8%)

JOHNSTON 195,372 220,591+50,440 (22.9%) 245,811 +75,660

(43.1%)

ORANGE 144,885 155,442+21,117 (13.6%) 166,001 +31,767

(24.0%)

WAKE 1,034,069 1,160,823

+253,509 (21.8%) 1,287,579 +380,265

(40.8%)NC Office of State Budget and Management

5.1% of 627,683 in projected 6-county growth

1.4% of projected state growth

Major Employers 2009-1014

NC Dept of Commerce EDIS

Construction

Manufacturing

Retail Trade

Information

Prof/Scientific/Tech Services

Educational Services

Health Care/Social Services

Accommodation/Food Services

Other Services (excl Pub Adm)

Public Administration

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

3,7512,776

4,8152,249

6,30517,295

13,5745,137

2,4852,420

2014 2009

New Job Growth 2009-2014

NC Dept of Commerce EDIS

Construction

Information

Prof/Scientific/Tech Services

Admin/Supp/Waste Mgmt Services

Educational Services

Health Care/Social Services

Arts/Entertainment/Rec

Accommodation/Food Services

Public Administration

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

153

266

736

259

1,845

2,045

124

481

185

Orange County Employment

2007 2008 2009 2010 4072562,500

63,000

63,500

64,000

64,500

65,000

65,500

66,000

66,500

67,000

67,500

65,610

66,956

64,275

65,062

64,526

NC Employment Security Commission

Chapel Hill Employment

2007 2008 2009 2010 40725 24,800

25,000

25,200

25,400

25,600

25,800

26,000

26,200

26,400

26,600

25,882

26,413

25,355

25,686

25,453


Per Capita Income by County

Alam

ance

Anson

Beauf

ort

Bruns

wick

Cabar

rus

Carte

ret

Chath

am

Clay

Crave

n

Dare

Duplin

Fors

yth

Gates

Green

e

Harne

tt

Hertfo

rd

Irede

ll

Jone

s

Linco

ln

Madiso

n

Mitche

ll

Nash

Onslo

w

Pasq

uota

nk

Pers

on

Rando

lph

Rocki

ngha

m

Sam

pson

Stok

es

Tran

sylv

ania

Vance

Was

hing

ton

Wilk

es

Yanc

ey

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

ChathamCumberland

DurhamMecklenburg

Orange

Wake

US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis

Per Capita Income Change 2007-2009

North Carolina

Alamance

Chatham

Durham

Johnston

Mecklenburg

Orange

Person

Randolph

Wake

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC (MSA)

-0.3%

-2.4%

-2.0%

-0.8%

-3.1%

-7.5%

3.6%

3.7%

0.7%

-5.6%

0.6%

US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis

Orange Co Income Levels by Household

NC Department of Commerce

Less than $10,000

11%

$10,000 to $34,999

25%

$35,000 to $74,999

26%

$75,000 to $99,999

11%

$100,000 to $149,999

13%

$150,000 to $199,999

7%

$200,000+8%

% Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -v- ‘09

US Census Bureau

Less than $10,000

$10,000 to $14,999

$15,000 to $24,999

$25,000 to $34,999

$35,000 to $49,999

$50,000 to $74,999

$75,000 to $99,999

$100,000 to $149,999

$150,000 to $199,999

$200,000 or more

-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%

12.9%15.0%

-6.5%

-6.2%4.0%

-4.3%3.0%

-7.6%6.5%

-2.4%

2010 Orange County Population by Race

U.S. Census Bureau

White

African American

Latino/Hispanic

Asian

Native American

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

74.4%

11.9%

8.2%

6.7%

0.4%

2010 Orange County Population by Race

U.S. Census Bureau

1990 2000 20100%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

80.1% 77.4% 74.4%

15.7%13.7% 11.9%

0.3% 4.4%

8.2%2.5% 4.1%

6.7%

White African AmericanLatino/Hispanic Asian

Minority Race/Ethnicity

Carrboro Hillsborough Chapel Hill Orange County

NC0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

10.1%

29.5%

9.7%11.9%

21.5%

13.8%

6.6% 6.4%8.2% 8.4%8.2%

1.7%

11.9%

6.7%

2.2%

African American Hispanic or Latino Asian

U.S. Census Bureau

Educational Attainment

U.S. Census Bureau

High School Graduate (or higher)

Bachelors Degree (or higher)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

89.6%

55.4%

82.9%

25.6%

84.5%

27.4%

Orange County North Carolina United States

High School Graduation Rates

N.C. Dept of Public Instruction2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

88.3%

93.0%

82.8%84.4%

77.7%77.7%

CHCCS 4-year CHCCS 5-year OCS 4-yearOCS 5-year NC 4-year NC 5-year

N.C Dept of Public Instruction

Carrb

oro

Elem

enta

ry

Carrb

oro

High

Scho

ol

Chape

l Hill

High

C And

L M

cdou

gle

Mid

Eliza

beth

Sea

wel

l Ele

m

Ephe

sus Roa

d El

emen

tary

Este

s Hills

Ele

men

tary

East

Cha

pel H

ill Hig

h

Fran

k P

Graha

m E

lem

enta

ry

Glenw

ood

Elem

enta

ry

Grey

Culbr

eth

Mid

dle

Guy P

hillip

s Mid

dle

C And

L M

cdou

gle

Elem

Mar

y Sc

rogg

s El

emen

tary

Mor

ris G

rove

Ele

men

tary

Mel

And

Zor

a Ras

hkis

Elem

R D A

nd E

uzel

le S

mith

Mid

dle

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

47%

23%17%23%25%39%

23%13%

48%

27%21%22%

47%35%

26%22%22%

Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced Price Lunch by School (Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools)

Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced Price Lunch by School (Orange County Schools)


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

39%34%20%

89%

34%

66%

42%40%

20%

57%

33%

94%

46%

Percent of Students Receiving Free or Reduced Lunch

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

32.6%

39.0%

21.7%

25.6%

Orange County CHCCS


Location of Orange County Housing Units

9258; 17%

2593; 5%

22254; 40%

21492; 39%

Carrboro HillsboroughChapel Hill Rest of County

US Census Bureau

Percent Renter-Occupied

Carrboro

Hillsborough

Chapel Hill

Rest of Orange County

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

61.5%

35.9%

52.4%

18.1%

US Census Bureau

Number of Homes Sold in Orange County

Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

15431686

1859188617971749

127111401142

Orange County Average Housing Prices


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$262,920

$280,592

$298,883

$320,489

$318,899

$342,740$321,326$317,847$329,918

2010 Average Home Price

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$190,985

$255,525

$307,292$329,918


2010 Average Home Price

Durham Wake Chatham Orange$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$190,985

$255,525

$307,292$329,918


Building Permits

Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange Chatham

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

41

45

135

CarrboroChapel HillOrange County (incl. Hillsborough)

Community Home TrustUnits Under Management

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

0

50

100

150

200

250 193

233Chart Title

Community Home Trust

- $20.2M in assessed value- $314K in property tax

Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Hotel Occupancy

69.9%

67.1%

65.0%

58.9% 59.5%

63.8%

52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD (Jun)

Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau

Chapel Hill/ Orange Co Average Daily Rate

108

$116.37 $114.77

$107.35

$101.94 $102.00

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD (Jun)


Chapel Hill/Orange County Lodging Statistics (2011 YTD)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Occupancy Room Rate Room Demand Room Revenue

Chapel Hill

NC

U.S.


2010 Taxes Generated by Tourists (in Millions)

2.92

8.45

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Local State

2010 • In 2010, visitors to Orange County generated 11.3 million in State and Local Taxes (including sales, lodging, food & beverage, gas and other)


Tourism Spending in Orange County(in millions)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


Orange County Tourism Impact Tourism in Orange County produced

$144 million in 2010, a 5.7% increase from 2009

Orange County ranked 24th in travel impact among North

Carolinas' 100 counties

Tourism was responsible for 1610 jobs

Travel generated a $27.17 million in payroll in 2010

Total Funding for UNC Research

Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Economic Development

$0

$100,000,000

$200,000,000

$300,000,000

$400,000,000

$500,000,000

$600,000,000

$700,000,000

$800,000,000

$900,000,000

$248,997,990

$803,390,675

UNC Cumulative New Company Creation

UNC Office of Technology Development

FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

5

1619 22

25 2632

3340 41

46

UNC Patent Application and Awards

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 125

28

U.S. Patent Applications U.S. Patents Issued

UNC Office of Technology Development

Property Crime Rate (per 100,000)

U.S. Dept of Justice

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Alamance Chatham DurhamOrange Wake

Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000)

U.S. Dept of Justice2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Orange County Pregnancy Rates (per 1000 girls age 15-17)

NC State Center for Health Statistics

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

White Minority Total

Orange County Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Orange County County: White County: Minority

Infant Mortality Rate Comparison (per 1,000 live births)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Orange County State


Percent of Adults Obese (2010)


Orange

Durham

Wake

North Carolina

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

17.9%

26.4%

24.4%

28.6%

Percent of Adults Smoking (2010)

Orange

Durham

Wake

North Carolina

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

13.3%

14.7%

16.2%

19.8%


Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people)

N.C State Center for Health Statistics

NORTH CAROLINA

Alamance

Chatham

Durham

Orange

Person

Wake

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

149.6

134.1

160.6

156.5

181.2

131.2

163.7


NORTH CAROLINA

Alamance

Chatham

Durham

Orange

Person

Wake

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

153.8

153.0

177.7

186.8

158.3

159.7

171.8

Prostate Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people)

NORTH CAROLINA

Alamance

Chatham

Durham

Orange

Person

Wake

45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

75.8

76.9

65.0

72.7

65.1

85.7

61.2

Lung Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people)


Asthma in Hospital Discharges (Orange Co., per 100,000)


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

50.9 48 50.9 50

72.7

57.350.3 55.2

92.3 97.4 92.3

69.5

135.7

90.1

65.7

90.1

All Ages Ages (0-14)

Orange County Dept of Social Services

Orange County Families Receiving Food Stamps

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

3941

7

3978

3

4014

8

4051

3

4072

50

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1390

1684

2987

5854

FISCAL YEAR

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Num

ber o

f Cus

tom

er A

ccou

nts

Aver

age

Ann

ual S

ales

(m

illio

n ga

llons

per

day

)

Actual Water Sales Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts

Drought 2001/02

Drought 2007/08

Reclaimed Water to UNC begins 2009

Water Sales and Accounts

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Average Bill Projected Average BillRate Increase Projected Rate Increase

Monthly Water & Sewer Bills

Rate

IncreaseA

ve

rag

e m

on

thly

bil

l b

as

ed

on

5,0

00

ga

llo

ns

pe

r m

on

th u

se

Commuting Patterns


Ala-mance

Chatham Durham Guilford Other Person Wake0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Out To In From

Orange County Commuting Patterns

NC Employment Security Commission-2006

UNC Employees Living Locally

2000 2005 20090

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

3865

4451

705 907

361 445

14472259

Chapel Hill CarrboroHillsborough Durham

Chapel Hill Data Book 2010

Percent of UNC employees living locally

2000 2005 20090%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

39.7%36.5%

7.2% 7.4%

3.7% 3.6%

14.9% 18.5%

Chapel Hill CarrboroHillsborough Durham


UNC Students Living Locally

FY 02 FY05 FY090

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1800016,544

13,189

2587

16931936

2125

Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham


Percent of UNC Students Living Locally

2002 2005 20090%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%65.3%

45.6%

10.2%

5.9%7.6%7.3%

Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham


Percent of Town of Chapel Hill Employees Living in Chapel Hill

1995 2004 2008 20100%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

41%

30%27%

22%

Chart Title


Modes of Transportation (2010)

US Census Bureau

0%20%40%60%80% 64.0%

6.5% 8.2% 12.0%

69.3%

10.7% 6.2% 5.5%

75.8%

10.4% 5.0% 2.9%

Chapel Hill Orange CountyUnited States

Transit Ridership (millions)

Chapel Hill Data Book - 2010FY 01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

3.013.46

4.675.16 5.47 5.72 5.62

6.4

7.296.84

Orange County Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

Orange County State of the Environment Report

Trans-portation;

49%

Residential; 19%

Commercial/Institutional;

29%

Solid Waste; 1% Industrial ; 2%

Unemployment Rate


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 407250

2

4

6

8

10

12

5.4%

6.8%

6.5% 7.1%

10.9% 10.3%Chapel Hill Orange County State

Unemployed

2007 2008 2009 2010 40725 -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

772

1,867 2,200

4,972

Chapel Hill Orange County


2009 County Retail Data

Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Person $0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

$1,3

55,1

49,9

27

$674,6

45,0

69

$2,8

87,4

22,3

37

$1,5

32,9

58,1

31

$328,1

89,0

79

$1,8

63,0

25,9

18

$258,7

24,3

06

$2,7

42,5

24,9

73

$1,2

01,0

13,5

63

$264,7

25,8

66

Retail Demand Retail Sales

NC Department of Commerce

Orange Co. Taxable Sales (millions)

NC Department of Revenue2006 2007 2008 2009 2010$860

$880

$900

$920

$940

$960

$980

$1,000

$936.5

$971.6

$952.2

$912.1

$985.3

Q1+Q2 Orange Co. Taxable Sales (millions)

NC Department of Revenue

Jan-June 2006

Jan-June 2007

Jan-June 2008

Jan-June 2009

Jan-June 2010

Jan-June 2011

$400

$420

$440

$460

$480

$500

$520

$540

$462.7$474.5 $474.5

$449.0

$483.1

$515.1

Percent Change Q1+Q2 Orange Co. Taxable Sales

NC Department of Revenue

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2.6%

0.0%

-5.4%

7.6%6.6%

Some takeaways…We have a strong, well-educated work force

and increasingly diverse population.Local municipalities share attributes but

have key demographic differences.We are growing and will grow, but slower

than our neighbors as we take a small portion of regional growth and state population growth.

We have a large disparity in wealth and have seen increases in children in poverty and food stamp recipients.

Some takeaways…Growth in retail sales is one of our

greatest economic opportunities.While we have enough water for the next

50 years, price continues to increase and a permanent emergency supply must be secured.

Housing prices, while holding steady, remain high compared in other counties in the region

Some takeaways…Our two school districts continue to out

perform their peers.Tourism and visitor spending are strong

and growing.Orange County employee income is the

highest and unemployment is one of the lowest in the state, but per capita retails sales lags substantially.

Some takeaways…

Our residents are healthy and trending healthier (other than breast cancer frequency).

UNC research funding remains strong and with a large economic multiplier will help mitigate the impact of state workforce reductions.

Per capita income growth is outpacing our neighbors and retail sales are on the rise.

PARTICIPATE AND SUPPORT-Campaign for Jobs and Schools

- Early Voting October 20-Orange County Development Briefing

-Sept 20-Leadership Chapel Hill-Carrboro XXVI

-Sept 26

Connect With UsFacebook.com/

ChapelHillCarrboroChamberTwitter: @CarolinaChamber

Flickr.com/photos/carolinachamberLinkedIn: Chapel Hill-Carrboro

Chamber groupwww.carolinachamber.org

http://www.carolinachamber.org/

state of the community 2011

News & Politics

durhamchapel hill

orange county employment67

asustainable community

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nc department of commerce

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income change