state of the community for chapel hill 2020
DESCRIPTION
Chapel Hill 2020 offered the special topic presentation "State of the Community" by Aaron Nelson, president and CEO of the Chapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce, at noon Monday, Feb. 6, in the Council Chamber of Chapel Hill Town Hall.The public was invited to attend or may view the presentation on Chapel Hill Government TV-18 or by streaming video on the Town of Chapel Hill website at http://www.townofchapelhill.org/index.aspx?page=1850.TRANSCRIPT
4th Annual State of the Community Report
Aaron NelsonChapel Hill-Carrboro Chamber of Commerce
Partnership for a Sustainable Community
A bit about Chamber and our FoundationThe Chamber
◦ Serve and advance the business interests of our 1,100 member employers Improve members’ bottom line Grow members’ professional network Access members access to timely information and decision
makers Advocate for member business interests and help build a
sustainable community where business can thrive Our Economic and Community Development Partnership
◦ Raised and invested more that $1 million to the community since 2004
◦ Launched Green Plus national small business education and certification program
◦ Accelerating Fourth Sector Enterprises
Background on this ReportOur Fourth State of the Community
ReportBorn out of graduate student research
at UNCSocial, Environmental and Economic
IndicatorsObjective: deliver relevant information
to community and business leadersThank you to Kristen Smith, director of
public policy and member engagment
PopulationJurisdiction 2000 2010 Growth Rate
Orange County 116,016 133,801
+17,785 (15.3%)
Hillsborough 5,513 6,087 +574 (10.4%)
Carrboro 17,668 19,582+1,914 (10.8%)
Chapel Hill 48,038 57,233+9,195 (19.1%)
North Carolina 8,078,824 9,535,483
+1,456,659 (18.0%)
U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Census Bureau
Population Growth
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
116,016
133,801
17,668 19,582
48,038 57,233
5,513 6,087
Orange County Carrboro Chapel Hill Hillsborough
Population Projections
County 2015 2020 Growth Rate
2025 Growth Rate
ALAMANCE 163,982 176,216+24,471 (13.9%) 188,451 +36,706
(23.8%)
CHATHAM 71,053 78,237+14,376 (18.4%) 85,422 +21,552
(33.0%)
DURHAM 296,200 323,474+54,549 (16.9%) 350,749 +81,824
(29.8%)
JOHNSTON 195,372 220,591+50,440 (22.9%) 245,811 +75,660
(43.1%)
ORANGE 144,885 155,442+21,117 (13.6%) 166,001 +31,767
(24.0%)
WAKE 1,034,069 1,160,823
+253,509 (21.8%) 1,287,579 +380,265
(40.8%)NC Office of State Budget and Management
5.1% of 627,683 in projected 6-county growth
1.4% of projected state growth
2010 Orange County Population by Race
U.S. Census Bureau
White
African American
Latino/Hispanic
Asian
Native American
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
74.4%
11.9%
8.2%
6.7%
0.4%
2010 Orange County Population by Race
U.S. Census Bureau
1990 2000 20100%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
80.1% 77.4% 74.4%
15.7%13.7% 11.9%
0.3% 4.4%
8.2%2.5% 4.1%
6.7%
White African AmericanLatino/Hispanic Asian
Minority Race/Ethnicity
Carrboro Hillsborough Chapel Hill Orange County
NC0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
10.1%
29.5%
9.7%11.9%
21.5%
13.8%
6.6% 6.4%8.2% 8.4%8.2%
1.7%
11.9%
6.7%
2.2%
African American Hispanic or Latino Asian
U.S. Census Bureau
Educational Attainment
U.S. Census Bureau
High School Graduate (or higher)
Bachelors Degree (or higher)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
89.6%
55.4%
82.9%
25.6%
84.5%
27.4%
Orange County North Carolina United States
Major Employers 2009-1014
NC Dept of Commerce EDIS
Construction
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
Information
Prof/Scientific/Tech Services
Educational Services
Health Care/Social Services
Accommodation/Food Services
Other Services (excl Pub Adm)
Public Administration
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000
3,751
2,776
4,815
2,249
6,305
17,295
13,574
5,137
2,485
2,420
2014 2009
New Job Growth 2009-2014
NC Dept of Commerce EDIS
Construction
Information
Prof/Scientific/Tech Services
Admin/Supp/Waste Mgmt Services
Educational Services
Health Care/Social Services
Arts/Entertainment/Rec
Accommodation/Food Services
Public Administration
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
153
266
736
259
1,845
2,045
124
481
185
Orange County Employment
2007 2008 2009 2010 4088863,000
63,500
64,000
64,500
65,000
65,500
66,000
66,500
67,000
67,500
65,997
67,031
65,119
64,498 64,450
NC Employment Security Commission
Chapel Hill Employment
2007 2008 2009 2010 40725 24,800
25,000
25,200
25,400
25,600
25,800
26,000
26,200
26,400
26,600
25,882
26,413
25,355
25,686
25,453
NC Employment Security Commission
Unemployment Rate
NC Employment Security Commission
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4072540878 -
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
5.4
6.8 5.3
6.5
7.1
6.1
10.610.4
9.8
Chapel Hill Orange County State
Unemployed
2007 2008 2009 2010 40878 -
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
772
1,433
2,200
4,211
Chapel Hill Orange County
NC Employment Security Commission
Per Capita Income by County
Alam
ance
Anson
Beauf
ort
Bruns
wick
Cabar
rus
Carte
ret
Chath
am
Clay
Crave
n
Dare
Duplin
Fors
yth
Gates
Green
e
Harne
tt
Hertfo
rd
Irede
ll
Jone
s
Linco
ln
Madiso
n
Mitche
ll
Nash
Onslo
w
Pasq
uota
nk
Pers
on
Rando
lph
Rocki
ngha
m
Sam
pson
Stok
es
Tran
sylv
ania
Vance
Was
hing
ton
Wilk
es
Yanc
ey
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
ChathamCumberland
DurhamMecklenburg
Orange
Wake
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
Per Capita Income Change 2007-2009
North Carolina
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Johnston
Mecklenburg
Orange
Person
Randolph
Wake
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC (MSA)
-0.3%
-2.4%
-2.0%
-0.8%
-3.1%
-7.5%
3.6%
3.7%
0.7%
-5.6%
0.6%
US Dept of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis
Orange Co Income Levels by Household
NC Department of Commerce
Less than $10,00011%
$10,000 to $34,999
25%
$35,000 to $74,99926%
$75,000 to $99,999
11%
$100,000 to $149,999
13%
$150,000 to $199,999
7%
$200,000+8%
% Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -v- ‘09
US Census Bureau
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000 or more
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
12.9%
15.0%
-6.5%
-6.2%
4.0%
-4.3%
3.0%
-7.6%
6.5%
-2.4%
% Change in Orange Co Income ‘08 -v- ‘09
US Census Bureau
Less than $10,000
$10,000 to $14,999
$15,000 to $24,999
$25,000 to $34,999
$35,000 to $49,999
$50,000 to $74,999
$75,000 to $99,999
$100,000 to $149,999
$150,000 to $199,999
$200,000 or more
-10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
12.9%
15.0%
-6.5%
-6.2%
4.0%
-4.3%
3.0%
-7.6%
6.5%
-2.4%
Orange County Dept of Social Services
Orange County Families Receiving Food Stamps
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
3941
7
3978
3
4014
8
4051
3
4072
50
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1390
1684
2987
5854
FISCAL YEAR10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Num
ber o
f Cus
tom
er A
ccou
nts
Aver
age
Ann
ual S
ales
(m
illio
n ga
llons
per
day
)
Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts
Water Sales and Accounts
FISCAL YEAR10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Num
ber o
f Cus
tom
er A
ccou
nts
Aver
age
Ann
ual S
ales
(m
illio
n ga
llons
per
day
)
Actual Water Sales Projected Water Sales Actual Customer Accounts
Drought 2001/02
Drought 2007/08
Reclaimed Water to UNC begins 2009
Water Sales and Accounts
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
$44
$92
6%
10%
17%
10%9%
2%
Average Bill Projected Average BillRate Increase Projected Rate Increase
Monthly Water & Sewer Bills
Rate
IncreaseA
ve
rag
e m
on
thly
bil
l b
as
ed
on
5,0
00
ga
llo
ns
pe
r m
on
th u
se
2009 County Retail Data
Alamance Chatham Durham Orange Person $0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$1,3
55,1
49,9
27
$674,6
45,0
69
$2,8
87,4
22,3
37
$1,5
32,9
58,1
31
$328,1
89,0
79
$1,8
63,0
25,9
18
$258,7
24,3
06
$2,7
42,5
24,9
73
$1,2
01,0
13,5
63
$264,7
25,8
66
Retail Demand Retail Sales
NC Department of Commerce
Orange Co. Taxable Sales (millions)
NC Department of Revenue2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
$850.0
$900.0
$950.0
$1,000.0
$1,050.0
$936.5
$971.6
$952.2
$912.1
$985.3
$1,035.4
High School Graduation Rates
N.C. Dept of Public Instruction2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
88.3%
93.0%
82.8%84.4%
77.7%77.7%
CHCCS 4-year CHCCS 5-year OCS 4-yearOCS 5-year NC 4-year NC 5-year
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
Carrb
oro
Elem
enta
ry
Carrb
oro
High
Scho
ol
Chape
l Hill
High
C And
L M
cdou
gle
Mid
Eliza
beth
Sea
wel
l Ele
m
Ephe
sus Roa
d El
emen
tary
Este
s Hills
Ele
men
tary
East
Cha
pel H
ill Hig
h
Fran
k P
Graha
m E
lem
enta
ry
Glenw
ood
Elem
enta
ry
Grey
Culbr
eth
Mid
dle
Guy P
hillip
s Mid
dle
C And
L M
cdou
gle
Elem
Mar
y Sc
rogg
s El
emen
tary
Mor
ris G
rove
Ele
men
tary
Mel
And
Zor
a Ras
hkis
Elem
R D A
nd E
uzel
le S
mith
Mid
dle
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
47%
23%17%
23%25%
39%
23%13%
48%
27%21%22%
47%35%
26%22%22%
Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced Price Lunch by School (Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools)
Percent of Children Receiving Free or Reduced Price Lunch by School (Orange County Schools)
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
39% 34%
20%
89%
34%
66%
42% 40%
20%
57%
33%
94%
46%
Percent of Students Receiving Free or Reduced Lunch
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
32.6%
39.0%
21.7%
25.6%
Orange County CHCCS
N.C Dept of Public Instruction
Chapel Hill/Orange Co. Hotel Occupancy
69.9%
67.1%
65.0%
58.9% 59.5%
63.8%
52%54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%72%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD (Jun)
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
2010 Taxes Generated by Tourists (in Millions)
2.92
8.45
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Local State
2010 • In 2010, visitors to Orange County generated 11.3 million in State and Local Taxes (including sales, lodging, food & beverage, gas and other)
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
Tourism Spending in Orange County(in millions)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Chapel Hill Orange County Visitors Bureau
Orange County Tourism Impact
Total Funding for UNC Research
Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Economic Development
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
$700,000,000
$800,000,000
$900,000,000
$248,997,990
$803,390,675
UNC Cumulative New Company Creation
UNC Office of Technology Development
FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
1619 22
25 2632
3340 41
46
UNC Patent Application and Awards
FY00
FY01
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140 125
28
U.S. Patent Applications U.S. Patents Issued
UNC Office of Technology Development
Property Crime Rate (per 100,000)
U.S. Dept of Justice
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Alamance Chatham DurhamOrange Wake
Violent Crime Rate (per 100,000)
U.S. Dept of Justice2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Orange County Pregnancy Rates (per 1000 girls age 15-17)
NC State Center for Health Statistics
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
10
20
30
40
50
60
White Minority Total
Orange County Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 live births)
NC State Center for Health Statistics
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Orange County County: White County: Minority
Infant Mortality Rate Comparison (per 1,000 live births)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Orange County State
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Percent of Adults Obese (2010)
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Orange
Durham
Wake
North Carolina
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
17.9%
26.4%
24.4%
28.6%
Percent of Adults Smoking (2010)
Orange
Durham
Wake
North Carolina
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
13.3%
14.7%
16.2%
19.8%
NC State Center for Health Statistics
Female Breast Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people)
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
NORTH CAROLINA
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
Person
Wake
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190
149.6
134.1
160.6
156.5
181.2
131.2
163.7
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
NORTH CAROLINA
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
Person
Wake
100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200
153.8
153.0
177.7
186.8
158.3
159.7
171.8
Prostate Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people)
NORTH CAROLINA
Alamance
Chatham
Durham
Orange
Person
Wake
45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
75.8
76.9
65.0
72.7
65.1
85.7
61.2
Lung Cancer Incidence Rate (‘03-’07, per 1,000 people)
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
Asthma in Hospital Discharges (Orange Co., per 100,000)
N.C State Center for Health Statistics
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
50.9 48 50.9 50
72.7
57.350.3 55.2
92.3 97.4 92.3
69.5
135.7
90.1
65.7
90.1
All Ages Ages (0-14)
Location of Orange County Housing Units
9258; 17%
2593; 5%
22254; 40%
21492; 39%
Carrboro HillsboroughChapel Hill Rest of County
US Census Bureau
Percent Renter-Occupied
Carrboro
Hillsborough
Chapel Hill
Rest of Orange County
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
61.5%
35.9%
52.4%
18.1%
US Census Bureau
Number of Homes Sold in Orange County
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
15431686
1859 18861797 1749
12711146 1143 1128
Orange County Average Housing Prices
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$262,920
$280,592
$298,883
$320,489
$318,899
$342,740
$321,326
$317,847
$331,400
$325,020
2010 Average Home Price
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$190,985
$255,525
$307,292$329,918
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
2010 Average Home Price
Durham Wake Chatham Orange$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$190,985
$255,525
$307,292$329,918
Greater Chapel Hill Association of REALTORS
Building Permits
Home Builders Association of Durham, Orange Chatham
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
41
45
135
CarrboroChapel HillOrange County (incl. Hillsborough)
Community Home TrustUnits Under Management
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
0
50
100
150
200
250 193
233Chart Title
Community Home Trust
- $20.2M in assessed value- $314K in property tax
Commuting Patterns
NC Employment Security Commission
Ala-mance
Chatham Durham Guilford Other Person Wake0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Out To In From
Orange County Commuting Patterns
NC Employment Security Commission-2006
UNC Employees Living Locally
2000 2005 20090
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
3865
4451
705 907
361 445
14472259
Chapel Hill CarrboroHillsborough Durham
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Percent of UNC employees living locally
2000 2005 20090%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
39.7%36.5%
7.2% 7.4%
3.7% 3.6%
14.9% 18.5%
Chapel Hill CarrboroHillsborough Durham
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
UNC Students Living Locally
FY 02 FY05 FY090
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1800016,544
13,189
2587
16931936
2125
Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Percent of UNC Students Living Locally
2002 2005 20090%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%65.3%
45.6%
10.2%
5.9%7.6%7.3%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Durham
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Percent of Town of Chapel Hill Employees Living in Chapel Hill
1995 2004 2008 20100%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
41%
30%27%
22%
Chart Title
Chapel Hill Data Book 2010
Modes of Transportation (2010)
US Census Bureau
0%20%40%60%80% 64.0%
6.5% 8.2% 12.0%
69.3%
10.7% 6.2% 5.5%
75.8%
10.4% 5.0% 2.9%
Chapel Hill Orange CountyUnited States
Transit Ridership (millions)
Chapel Hill Data Book - 2010FY 01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
3.013.46
4.675.16 5.47 5.72 5.62
6.4
7.296.84
Orange County Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
Orange County State of the Environment Report
Transportation; 49%
Residential; 19%
Commercial/In-stitutional; 29%
Solid Waste; 1% Industrial ; 2%
Some takeaways…We have a strong, well-educated work force
and increasingly diverse population.Local municipalities share attributes but
have key demographic differences.We are growing and will grow, but slower
than our neighbors as we take a small portion of regional growth and state population growth.
We have a large disparity in wealth and have seen increases in children in poverty and food stamp recipients.
Some takeaways…Growth in retail sales is one of our
greatest economic opportunities.While we have enough water for the next
50 years, price continues to increase and a permanent emergency supply must be secured.
Housing prices, while holding steady, remain high compared in other counties in the region
Some takeaways…Our two school districts continue to out
perform their peers.Tourism and visitor spending are strong
and growing.Orange County employee income is the
highest and unemployment is one of the lowest in the state, but per capita retails sales lags substantially.
Some takeaways…
Our residents are healthy and trending healthier (other than breast cancer frequency).
UNC research funding remains strong and with a large economic multiplier will help mitigate the impact of state workforce reductions.
Per capita income growth is outpacing our neighbors and retail sales are on the rise.
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