state of the planet “executive summary”

State of the PlanetState of the Planet“Executive Summary”“Executive Summary”

James G. HarrisJames G. Harris

Professor, EE Department and CPE ProgramProfessor, EE Department and CPE Program

EE 563 Graduate SeminarEE 563 Graduate Seminar

October 22, 2004October 22, 2004

“The Blue Marble” Apollo 17 photograph (NASA)

OutlineOutline

BackgroundBackground Overview of State of the PlanetOverview of State of the Planet Summary of each of the eight papersSummary of each of the eight papers ConclusionsConclusions Reference websitesReference websites

Background – Special SeriesBackground – Special Series

Special report commissioned by Science to Special report commissioned by Science to assess state of planet now, and to give an assess state of planet now, and to give an estimate for 2050 estimate for 2050

Two articles per issue for four consecutive weeks Two articles per issue for four consecutive weeks 14 Nov. – 5 Dec. 2003 14 Nov. – 5 Dec. 2003

Followed in 12 Dec. 2003 with special issue on the Followed in 12 Dec. 2003 with special issue on the publishing in Science of “Tragedy of the publishing in Science of “Tragedy of the Commons” by Garret Hardin 35 years agoCommons” by Garret Hardin 35 years ago

This presentation is a brief summary of the eight This presentation is a brief summary of the eight articlesarticles

Background – The Eight PapersBackground – The Eight Papers

““Human Population: The Next Half Century” Human Population: The Next Half Century” by Joel E. Cohenby Joel E. Cohen

““Prospects for Biodiversity” by Martin Prospects for Biodiversity” by Martin JenkinsJenkins

““Tropical Soils and Food Security” by Tropical Soils and Food Security” by Michael StockingMichael Stocking

““The Future for Fisheries” by Daniel Pauly The Future for Fisheries” by Daniel Pauly et et alal

Background – The Eight PapersBackground – The Eight Papers

““Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21Solutions for the 21stst Century” by Peter Century” by Peter GleickGleick

““Energy Resources and Global Energy Resources and Global Development” by Raymond J. Chow Development” by Raymond J. Chow et alet al

““Global Air Quality and Pollution” Hajime Global Air Quality and Pollution” Hajime AkimotoAkimoto

““Modern Global Climate Change” by Modern Global Climate Change” by Thomas R. Karl and Kevin E. TrenberthThomas R. Karl and Kevin E. Trenberth

Overview of SOTPOverview of SOTP

Eight areas represent the state of the planetEight areas represent the state of the planet Five common resources:Five common resources:

– AirAir– Fresh WaterFresh Water– FisheriesFisheries– Food and SoilFood and Soil– EnergyEnergy

Three key trends:Three key trends:– Human populationHuman population– BiodiversityBiodiversity– ClimateClimate

Overview of SOTPOverview of SOTP

Personal observationsPersonal observations– Helps establish a defining set of variables for a Helps establish a defining set of variables for a

very complex system using scientific very complex system using scientific perspective perspective

– Engineering via computers, observation Engineering via computers, observation systems (space and senor electronics), and systems (space and senor electronics), and communications make SOTP possiblecommunications make SOTP possible

– Span of consideration 2000-2050 covers the Span of consideration 2000-2050 covers the expected span of your careers expected span of your careers

““Human Population: The Next Half Human Population: The Next Half Century”Century”

Earth’s population grew from 600 M in 1700 to 6.3 Earth’s population grew from 600 M in 1700 to 6.3 B in 2003B in 2003– Order of magnitude growth in 300 yearsOrder of magnitude growth in 300 years

1965-70 global population growth rate reached its 1965-70 global population growth rate reached its all-time high of 2.1% per yearall-time high of 2.1% per year– 1.2% in 20021.2% in 2002

Demographics predictions for 2050 based upon Demographics predictions for 2050 based upon two UN sources:two UN sources:– UN Population Division’s urbanization forecastsUN Population Division’s urbanization forecasts– World Population Prospects: The 2002 RevisionWorld Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision


UN alternative projections include: low, UN alternative projections include: low, median, high, and constant-fertility variantsmedian, high, and constant-fertility variants

Analysis based upon median variantAnalysis based upon median variant– Growth from 6.3B to 8.9B in 2050Growth from 6.3B to 8.9B in 2050– Comparison with historical growth rate:Comparison with historical growth rate:

Beginning to 1800 for 1B growth in populationBeginning to 1800 for 1B growth in population 13-14 years from now 1B growth 13-14 years from now 1B growth


Demographic uncertaintiesDemographic uncertainties– Migration and FamiliesMigration and Families

MigrationMigration– From less to more developed countriesFrom less to more developed countries– 2.6M now declining to 2.0M in 2025-30 and remaining 2.6M now declining to 2.0M in 2025-30 and remaining

constant constant FamiliesFamilies

– Falling fertilityFalling fertility– Increasing longevityIncreasing longevity– Changing mores of marriage, cohabitation, and divorceChanging mores of marriage, cohabitation, and divorce

““Prospects for Biodiversity”Prospects for Biodiversity”

Consideration for biodiversity:Consideration for biodiversity:– Tropical forest Tropical forest – Temperate forestTemperate forest– MarineMarine– FreshwaterFreshwater

Assumptions:Assumptions:– UN median population estimates for 2050: 6B to 9B by UN median population estimates for 2050: 6B to 9B by

20502050– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario:

average surface temperature increases ~1-2average surface temperature increases ~1-2º C and º C and COCO22 increases ~100-200 ppm increases ~100-200 ppm

– Humanity conducts affairs as a whole as currently Humanity conducts affairs as a whole as currently


Considerable number of species extinctions will Considerable number of species extinctions will take placetake place

Existing large blocks of tropical forests reduced Existing large blocks of tropical forests reduced and fragmentedand fragmented

Temperate, and some tropical, forests will be Temperate, and some tropical, forests will be stable or increasing in areastable or increasing in area

Marine ecosystems very different with few large Marine ecosystems very different with few large marine predatorsmarine predators

Freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced Freshwater biodiversity will be severely reduced almost everywherealmost everywhere


How much does it matter to human existence?How much does it matter to human existence?– Growing consensus humans directly or indirectly Growing consensus humans directly or indirectly

responsible for extinction of all or most of large responsible for extinction of all or most of large terrestrial animal speciesterrestrial animal species

– Case of New Zealand: 38 species of flightless avifauna Case of New Zealand: 38 species of flightless avifauna reduced to 9 with few signs overall of terminal crisis to reduced to 9 with few signs overall of terminal crisis to humanshumans

– Some point a threshold may be crossed, but likely Some point a threshold may be crossed, but likely consequences from other factors such as abrupt climate consequences from other factors such as abrupt climate shift shift

““Tropical Soils and Food Security”Tropical Soils and Food Security”

UN Food and Agriculture Organization definition of UN Food and Agriculture Organization definition of food security: “when all people, at all times, have food security: “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient safe physical and economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”food preferences for an active and healthy life”

Currently,1B people without food security (1 in 6) Currently,1B people without food security (1 in 6) 60% of rural communities in tropics and subtropics 60% of rural communities in tropics and subtropics

are persistently affected by decline in household are persistently affected by decline in household food productionfood production


Soil quality defined by Soil Science Society of Soil quality defined by Soil Science Society of America: “the capacity of a soil to function within America: “the capacity of a soil to function within land use and ecosystem boundaries, to sustain land use and ecosystem boundaries, to sustain biological productivity, maintain environmental biological productivity, maintain environmental quality and promote plant, animal and human quality and promote plant, animal and human health”health”

Issue is ascribing decline in food production Issue is ascribing decline in food production unambiguously to soil qualityunambiguously to soil quality– Evidence of impact of soil quality on food production Evidence of impact of soil quality on food production

growing growing


Future in managing soil quality rests in Future in managing soil quality rests in working with local communitiesworking with local communities

Evidence of adaptability, flexibility, and Evidence of adaptability, flexibility, and responsiveness to techniques that bring responsiveness to techniques that bring private benefits to smallholdersprivate benefits to smallholders

Providing simple provisions such as Providing simple provisions such as adequately resourced extension services adequately resourced extension services and access to technology to smallholders and access to technology to smallholders can transform food productioncan transform food production

““The Future for Fisheries”The Future for Fisheries”

Fisheries commonly perceived as local affairs Fisheries commonly perceived as local affairs requiring annual reassessments of species-requiring annual reassessments of species-specific catch quotaspecific catch quota

Past decade established fisheries components of Past decade established fisheries components of global enterprise on its way to undermining its global enterprise on its way to undermining its supporting ecosystemssupporting ecosystems

Future of fisheriesFuture of fisheries– Identification and extrapolation of fundamental trendsIdentification and extrapolation of fundamental trends– Development and exploration with and without computer Development and exploration with and without computer

simulation of possible futuressimulation of possible futures


Global fisheries landing declined about Global fisheries landing declined about 500,000 metric ton per year from a peak of 500,000 metric ton per year from a peak of 80-85 million tons in the late 1980s80-85 million tons in the late 1980s

Geographic and depth expansion of Geographic and depth expansion of fisheries easier to extrapolatefisheries easier to extrapolate

Over past 50 yearsOver past 50 years– Bottom fishing went from 200 m to 1000 mBottom fishing went from 200 m to 1000 m– Oceanic tuna, billfishes and relatives covered Oceanic tuna, billfishes and relatives covered

the world ocean by the early 1980sthe world ocean by the early 1980s


Four future scenarios proposed by UN Environmental Four future scenarios proposed by UN Environmental ProgrammeProgramme– Market first: market considerations shape environmental policyMarket first: market considerations shape environmental policy– Security first: conflicts and inequality lead to strong socioeconomic Security first: conflicts and inequality lead to strong socioeconomic

boundaries between rich and poolboundaries between rich and pool– Policy first: governments balance social equity and environmental Policy first: governments balance social equity and environmental

concernsconcerns– Sustainability first: value system change favoring environmental Sustainability first: value system change favoring environmental

sustainabilitysustainability 20-30% decrease and redistribution of current fishing effort20-30% decrease and redistribution of current fishing effort

Scenarios describe what might happen, not what will Scenarios describe what might happen, not what will happenhappen– Tragedy of the CommonsTragedy of the Commons

““Global Freshwater Resources:Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21Soft-Path Solutions for the 21stst Century” Century”

2020thth century water policies relied on massive century water policies relied on massive infrastructure (dams, aqueducts, pipelines, infrastructure (dams, aqueducts, pipelines, centralized treatment plants) to meet human centralized treatment plants) to meet human demandsdemands– Hard-Path solutionHard-Path solution

Serious unresolved water problems remainSerious unresolved water problems remain– 1B people lack safe drinking water1B people lack safe drinking water– 2.4B people lack access to adequate sanitation services2.4B people lack access to adequate sanitation services


Soft-Path approach:Soft-Path approach:– Improve the productivity of waterImprove the productivity of water– Delivers water services and quality matched to users’ Delivers water services and quality matched to users’

needsneeds– Applies economic tools with goal to encourage efficient Applies economic tools with goal to encourage efficient

use and equitable distributionuse and equitable distribution– Includes local communities in decisions about water Includes local communities in decisions about water

management, allocation, and usemanagement, allocation, and use A fallacy of hard-path approach: using less water, A fallacy of hard-path approach: using less water,

or failing to use more water, leads to loss of well-or failing to use more water, leads to loss of well-beingbeing


Transition to soft-path already startedTransition to soft-path already started Examples in US:Examples in US:

– Last two decades amount of water for toilets declined by Last two decades amount of water for toilets declined by 75%75%

– Proposed 67% reduction water use in California urban Proposed 67% reduction water use in California urban areas without reduction in serviceareas without reduction in service

– Agriculture – farmers want to grow food and fiber, not Agriculture – farmers want to grow food and fiber, not use water: use of drip irrigationuse water: use of drip irrigation

– Industry – semiconductor wafer water use went from 30 Industry – semiconductor wafer water use went from 30 gal/ingal/in22 in 1970 to 6gal/in in 1970 to 6gal/in22 in 2003 in 2003

Conclusion: can’t follow both paths, must choose Conclusion: can’t follow both paths, must choose

““Energy Resources and Global Energy Resources and Global Development”Development”

■ ■ Availability of global energy resources and their use Availability of global energy resources and their use


Current rate of consumption (year 2000)Current rate of consumption (year 2000)– Coal: .5% of reservesCoal: .5% of reserves– Natural gas: 1.6% of reservesNatural gas: 1.6% of reserves– Oil: 3% of reservesOil: 3% of reserves– Nuclear: 2% of reservesNuclear: 2% of reserves

World not running out of mineral fuelsWorld not running out of mineral fuels– But still finite amountsBut still finite amounts

Possession of reserves not essential for developmentPossession of reserves not essential for development– Japan: very little energy resources, but highly developedJapan: very little energy resources, but highly developed– Nigeria: large oil reserves, but developing statusNigeria: large oil reserves, but developing status


95% of annual energy consumption from fossil fuels95% of annual energy consumption from fossil fuels– 44% petroleum44% petroleum– 26% natural gas26% natural gas– 25% coal25% coal– 2.5% hydroelectric2.5% hydroelectric– 2.4% nuclear2.4% nuclear– 0.2% nonhydro renewable energy0.2% nonhydro renewable energy

Higher GNP per capita generally implies higher efficiency Higher GNP per capita generally implies higher efficiency of energy useof energy use

Cost of renewable energy not competitive at this timeCost of renewable energy not competitive at this time

Growing concern for fossil fuel emission of Growing concern for fossil fuel emission of greenhouse gassesgreenhouse gasses

Given growing environmental concerns, future use Given growing environmental concerns, future use of fossil resources will change:of fossil resources will change:– Processes with increased efficiencyProcesses with increased efficiency– Lower localized air pollutionLower localized air pollution– Carbon capture and sequestrationCarbon capture and sequestration

Electricity generation will remain most important Electricity generation will remain most important useuse– Generation flexibilityGeneration flexibility– Flexibility in useFlexibility in use



Will world make transition to renewables?Will world make transition to renewables?– Simple answer – yes, when fossil costs riseSimple answer – yes, when fossil costs rise– Next 25-50 years, little transition expectedNext 25-50 years, little transition expected

If fossil fuel depletion occurs more rapidlyIf fossil fuel depletion occurs more rapidly– Renewables and alternatives may come online more Renewables and alternatives may come online more

quicklyquickly Requisite political will and financial support Requisite political will and financial support

requiredrequired– Benefits of fossil fuels do not make up for negative Benefits of fossil fuels do not make up for negative

effects on environmental health and human welfareeffects on environmental health and human welfare

““Global Air Quality and Pollution”Global Air Quality and Pollution”

1986 report using MAPS satellite data established 1986 report using MAPS satellite data established that air pollution was an international issuethat air pollution was an international issue– Affected regional and global air qualityAffected regional and global air quality– Industrial fossil fuel burning from developed countriesIndustrial fossil fuel burning from developed countries– Biomass burning emissions from developing countriesBiomass burning emissions from developing countries

Recent satellite data confirms: GOME, Recent satellite data confirms: GOME, SCHIAMACHY, MOPITT, TOMS, TERRASCHIAMACHY, MOPITT, TOMS, TERRA

Aerosol distribution also global in extentAerosol distribution also global in extent Surface ozone increasingSurface ozone increasing


Pollutant atmospheric lifetimes long enough Pollutant atmospheric lifetimes long enough to transport to other continentsto transport to other continents– Order of 1 week for intercontinental transportOrder of 1 week for intercontinental transport– Ozone: 1-2 weeks summer, 1-2 months winterOzone: 1-2 weeks summer, 1-2 months winter– CO 1-2 monthsCO 1-2 months– Aerosols impact climate: 1-2 weeksAerosols impact climate: 1-2 weeks


Megacities of greater than 10M people are Megacities of greater than 10M people are sources of regional and global pollutionsources of regional and global pollution– In 2001, 17 megacities according to UNIn 2001, 17 megacities according to UN– Population growth and urbanization in futurePopulation growth and urbanization in future

Local, regional, and global air-quality issues Local, regional, and global air-quality issues should be viewed in integrated mannershould be viewed in integrated manner– Regional and global environmental impactsRegional and global environmental impacts– Climate changeClimate change

““Modern Global Climate Change”Modern Global Climate Change”

Planet Earth habitable becausePlanet Earth habitable because– relative location to sunrelative location to sun– Natural greenhouse effect of its atmosphereNatural greenhouse effect of its atmosphere

Energy flow from sun Energy flow from sun – Average energy at top of atmosphere 175 PWAverage energy at top of atmosphere 175 PW– ~31% reflected from clouds and surface~31% reflected from clouds and surface– 120 PW absorbed by atmosphere, land, or ocean120 PW absorbed by atmosphere, land, or ocean

Ultimately emitted back to space as infrared radiationUltimately emitted back to space as infrared radiation

– Infrequent volcanic eruptions have perturbed flowInfrequent volcanic eruptions have perturbed flow– Inferred changes in total solar irradiance are small (0.2Inferred changes in total solar irradiance are small (0.2oo

C in first half of 20C in first half of 20thth century; smaller later part) century; smaller later part)


Human influences on climate dominate Human influences on climate dominate detectable influence for past 50 yearsdetectable influence for past 50 years– Main impact on changes in atmospheric Main impact on changes in atmospheric

composition (not actual heat generation)composition (not actual heat generation)– Estimated 1% change in energy flow to date Estimated 1% change in energy flow to date

dominates all other human influencesdominates all other human influences 1 PW = 1million 1000 MW power stations1 PW = 1million 1000 MW power stations

– Atmospheric composition changes due to Atmospheric composition changes due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gasesanthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases


Absence of climate mitigation policies, 1.7Absence of climate mitigation policies, 1.7oo to 4.9 to 4.9oo C is 90% probability interval for warming from C is 90% probability interval for warming from 1990 to 21001990 to 2100– More frequent heat waves, droughts, extreme More frequent heat waves, droughts, extreme

precipitation eventsprecipitation events– Related regional impacts: wild fires, vegetation changes, Related regional impacts: wild fires, vegetation changes,

sea level risesea level rise Rate of human-induced climate change projected Rate of human-induced climate change projected

to be faster than natural processes, e.g., 10,000 to be faster than natural processes, e.g., 10,000 year cycle ice agesyear cycle ice ages– Irreversible thresholds likely existIrreversible thresholds likely exist

Climate change guaranteed in futureClimate change guaranteed in future

ConclusionsConclusions

Five common resources:Five common resources:– Air: pollution is global, not local, problemAir: pollution is global, not local, problem– Fresh Water: efficient use of water, not produce more waterFresh Water: efficient use of water, not produce more water– Fisheries: tragedy of the commons problemFisheries: tragedy of the commons problem– Food and Soil: local solutions to efficiently produce food and fiberFood and Soil: local solutions to efficiently produce food and fiber– Energy: market forces will most likely cause change from fossil fuel Energy: market forces will most likely cause change from fossil fuel

dependencydependency Three key trends:Three key trends:

– Human population: ~50% more people by 2050 (6B to 9B)Human population: ~50% more people by 2050 (6B to 9B)– Biodiversity: less diversity, but impact to human life on the planet Biodiversity: less diversity, but impact to human life on the planet

less than other factorsless than other factors– Climate: human impact on atmosphere growing in significance with Climate: human impact on atmosphere growing in significance with

unknown consequencesunknown consequences

URL for “State of the PlanetURL for “State of the Planet

Web site available for all articles comprising Web site available for all articles comprising the “State of the Planet”, and the “Tragedy the “State of the Planet”, and the “Tragedy of the Commons” of the Commons” – http://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/sotp/http://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/sotp/– Not complete access (AAAS members)Not complete access (AAAS members)

EE 563 student PowerPoint presentations EE 563 student PowerPoint presentations for the eight articles are available:for the eight articles are available:– http://www.calpoly.edu/~jharris/courseshttp://www.calpoly.edu/~jharris/courses under under

EE 563 Winter 2003EE 563 Winter 2003

http://www.sciencemag.org/sciext/sotp/

http://www.calpoly.edu/~jharris/courses

Tropical Soils and Food SecurityTropical Soils and Food Security

The Future for FisheriesThe Future for Fisheries

Use UN Environmental Programme four Use UN Environmental Programme four scenarios to investigate future of fisheriesscenarios to investigate future of fisheries– Market firstMarket first– Security firstSecurity first– Policy firstPolicy first– Sustainability firstSustainability first


Consequences of the global distribution and Consequences of the global distribution and use of energy resourcesuse of energy resources

Estimate of futureEstimate of future

state of the planet “executive summary”

Documents

median population

b growth human population

revisionhuman population

papershuman population

half centuryhuman population

half centuryearths population

global population growth

careers human population