statistical analysis of sucker rod pumping a thesis in

170
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING FAILURES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN by ZHANYU GE, B.S.E., M.S.E. A THESIS IN PETROLEUM ENGINEERING Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN PETROLEUM ENGINEERING /-N Approved ^ May, 1998

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Page 1: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING

FAILURES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN

by

ZHANYU GE, B.S.E., M.S.E.

A THESIS

IN

PETROLEUM ENGINEERING

Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Texas Tech University in

Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for

the Degree of

MASTER OF SCIENCE

IN

PETROLEUM ENGINEERING

/ -N Approved ^

May, 1998

Page 2: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

AC /IlG3'/

T 3 ACKNOWLEGDEMENTS

/"^O ' I First I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Lloyd R. Heinze for his

^ ^f' encouragement, guidance, advice, and financial support to me throughout the whole

process of my writing the thesis and my stay in the Department of Petroleum

Engineering. Without Dr. Heinze's help, I could not have accomplished my study. Dr.

Heinze is the sponsor of the research project of ALEOC. I learned a lot from his attitude

toward academic study, and shared his expertise in drilling, production, and computer

science. I also enjoyed his attitude toward students.

I would like to thank Dr. John J. Day for having been a member of the committee, for

his guidance and advice for my study in all areas, and for his patience to spend time to

correct my thesis.

My deep thanks go to Dr. Herald W. Winkler, Dr. Scott M. Frailey, Dr. Marion D.

Arnold, and Dr. Lome A. Davis for their generosity to let me share their knowledge and

expertise, and for all their warm help during my study.

I am indebted to Mrs. Johnita G. Greer, Mrs. Michelle Doss, Mrs. Ronda Brewer, and

Mr. Joe Mclnerney for all their warm help and support throughout my study in this

department. I thank all the related officers in the Graduate School, especialh' Mrs. Barbi

Dickensheet, for their kind help .

I want to express my gratitude to my classmates Mr. Kenneth Dang, Mr. Anthony

Pol, Mrs. Silvana C. Runyan, Mr. Paulus Adisoemarta and other Big and Small brothers

and sisters in this department for their generous help.

I thank my teachers and colleagues at the University of Petroleum, China for all their

encouragement, help and sacrifice for me. I would like to express deep thanks to my

parents for their efforts to give me life, cultivate me and let me grow up.

I would like to thank my dearest friend, my wife, Huifang Liu for her support to my

study and care for my daily life. My two sons, Wenqi (John) Ge and Wencan (Shawn)

Ge, gave me infinite courage and energy to work hard.

ii

Page 3: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii

ABSTRACT vi

LIST OF TABLES ix

LIST OF FIGURES xi

CHAPTER

1. INTRODUCTION 1

2. LITERATURE REVIEW OF DENVER CITY UNIT 6

2.1 Formation Characteristics 10

2.2 Denver Unit History 13

2.2.1 1964-1980 13

2.2.1.1 Project Pattern Evolution 13

2.2.1.2 Production Technology Practices 19

2.2.2 1980-present 30

2.2.2.1 Project Pattern Evolution 30

2.2.2.2 Continuous Area EOR Performance 32

2.2.2.2.1 Injector-To-Producer Conversions 33

2.2.2.2.2 Injection Performance 34

2.2.2.2.3 Gas-Oil-Ratio Trend 35

2.2.2.2.4 CO2 Production 35

2.2.2.2.5 Flowing Wells 37

2.2.2.3 WACO2 Area EOR Performance 37

2.2.2.4 Denver Unit WAG Development 38

2.2.2.5 Recent COj Flood Performance 40

2.2.2.5.1 Continuous Area 40

2.2.2.5.2 WACO2 Area 41

2.2.2.5.3 Final Injection Area 41

2.3 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Pumping Failures 42

111

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2.4 Summary 44

3. DATA FROM COMPANIES 45

3.1 Pretreatment of Primary Databases 45

3.1.1 From Access File to Excel File 45

3.1.2 Data Sorting 45

3.1.3 Pretreated Data 46

3.2 Failure Frequencies 46

3.3 Failure Frequency Graphs 80

3.4 Some Observations of the Tables and Graphs 106

3.5 Summary 107 4. APPLICATION OF FAULT TREE ANALYSIS TO

SUCKER ROD PUMPING SYSTEM 108

4.1 Introduction 108

4.2 Definition of Failures 108

4.3 Understanding the System 109

4.4 Construction of the Fault Tree 109

4.5 Evaluation of the Fault Tree 110

4.6 Control of Failures 124

4.7 Summary 125 5. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE SUCKER ROD

PUMPING FAILURES IN THE PERMIAN BASIN 126

5.1 Introduction 126

5.2 Statistical Mathematics 127

5.2.1 Some Nomenclatures Used in Statistical Analysis 127

5.2.2 Normal Distribution 128

5.2.2.1 Normal Distribution 128

5.2.2.2 Fitting a Normal Distribufion to Observed Data... 130

5.2.3 Sampling Distribution 130

5.2.3.1 Sampling Distribufion of the Mean 131

5.2.3.2 Sampling Distribution of the Variance 132

IV

Page 5: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

5.2.4 x^-Distribution 133

5.2.5 t-Distribufion 135

5.2.6 Regression Analysis 136

5.2.6.1 Simple Linear Regression 137

5.2.6.2 Polynomial Regression 138

5.3 Statistical Analysis of the Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 139

5.4 Summary 151

6. CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS 152

REFERENCES 155

Page 6: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

ABSTRACT

This thesis serves the research project. The Artificial Lift Energy Optimization

Consortium (ALEOC), which is supported by 11 oil companies in the Permian Basin.

The objectives of ALEOC are to share successes and failures in production operations

between consortium members, thereby reducing present operating costs, increasing lift

efficiency, extending lower-rate well producing life and increasing oil well profitability.

The first step toward the goal is to analyze the recorded databases to find out the

production operation history and direct the future operations, and hence this thesis. The

Permian Basin is one of the largest oil production areas in the world and sucker rod

pumping is the main kind of artificial lift in that area. Wasson San Andres field is one of

the top old fields and among the most complex in the Permian Basin. Denver City Unit is

the largest of all the units in Wasson field. This thesis has just concentrated on tracing the

history of this unit.

Denver City Unit is operated by Shell Oil Company, it mainly produces oil from the

San Andres formation (4700 to 7300 ft. deep, averaging 5200 ft.). The productive portion

of the San Andres at Denver City Unit is subdivided into First Porosity and Main Pay.

Main Pay possesses the most favorable reservoirs and porosity development. The

discovery well was completed on September 28, 1935. Water flood began just after its

foundafion in 1964, and resulted in the peak production, 150,000 BOPD, in 1975. COj

injection began in mid-1984, and maintained the steady production thereafter. Denver

City Unit Water-Alternating-Gas injection process has the advantages over both

continuous CO2 injection and WAG process. Experience shown that in Denver City Unit

7-in. casing has higher artificial lift efficiency. During the 1980s, the beam pumping units

were mainly API 640's and 456's. The average run time between failures was

approximately 15 months. In recent years sucker rod pumping failures have decreased

gradually.

The data provided by 11 oil companies came from about 25,000 sucker rod pumping

wells, a quarter of the total sucker rod lifted well numbers in the Permian Basin. This is a

VI

Page 7: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

big and reliable sample group from the population of sucker rod pumping wells in the

Permian Basin. The databases were first pretreated from Access files or Excel files to the

generalized Excel data file; with data sorting, the data were reorganized according to their

company, field, location, formafion and depth. Failure frequencies for total, pump, rod,

and tubing were calculated to make them more comparable. According to the sorted

failure frequencies, failure frequency plots were made to make them more

straightforward. Observafions of the failure data and plots revealed that different

companies have very different failure frequencies, which is an index of field operation

efficiency, facility manipulation, underground working conditions of the sucker rod

pumping equipment; there is a trend of failure frequency decrease year after year among

the participated companies with a few exceptions.

In this thesis Fault Tree Techniques have been successfully applied to the analysis of

the sucker rod pumping system. After the system was fully understood, a big fault tree

was built from top event to bottom events. The evaluation of the fault tree is in the

reverse direction, from bottom to top. The statistical probability of occurrence of the

events at different levels were calculated. From the analysis of the fault tree structure and

Company A's data, the conclusions are: because of its OR-gate structure, sucker rod

pumping system is liable to suffer failure, any component may result in complete failure

of the whole system; the downhole pump has the highest probability to fail: the weakest

portions of the sucker rod string are polished rod, VA rod body, and 7/8 rod box and pin.

Suggestions are to get deep into the working theories of the whole system; make the

whole system equal-strength during design; find out the failure causes related to

operation, manufacturer, equipment working conditions, and so on.

Traditional statistical techniques are applicable to all kinds of observed data. In this

thesis, the necessary tools have been presented, and used the data for all the companies'

total as an example to show the analysis methods. To do the complete analysis here,

normal distribution, x"-distribution, and t-distribution are needed to compute their means,

variances, and standard deviations. By fitfing the normal (or x'- or t-) distribution to

observed data, we may convert the discrete system to continuous system, and do the

Vll

Page 8: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

sampling distribution analysis. Regression analysis is used to relate the dependent

variable to the independent variable(s), and to predict the future occurrence on a

statistical basis. According to the sampling analysis of the failure data from the Permian

Basin, a rough idea about the failure frequencies are: total is 0.66 per well per year,

pump is 0.25 per well per year, rod is 0.22 per well per year, and tubing is 0.16 per well

per year. Due to the incompleteness of the failure data, the main purpose of this part is to

provide the necessary methodology.

Vll l

Page 9: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

LIST OF TABLES

1 -1 San Andres Units Data 5

2-1 Summary of the Denver Project Data 16

2-2 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Pumping Failures 43

2-3 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequency 43

3-1 Company A Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 47

3-2 Company B Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 48

3-3 Company C Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 49

3-4 Company D Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 50

3-5 Company E Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 51

3-6 Company F Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 52

3-7 Company G Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 53

3-8 Company H Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 54

3-9 Company I Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 57

3-10 Company J Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 58

3-11 Company K Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin 58

3-12 Company A Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 59

3-13 Company B Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 60

3-14 Company C Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 61

3-15 Company D Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 62

3-16 Company E Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 63

3-17 Company F Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 64

3-18 Company G Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 65

3-19 Company H Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 66

3-20 Company I Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 68

3-21 Company J Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 69

3-22 Company K Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin 69

IX

Page 10: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

3-23 Failure Frequency Of Every Compan> In The Permian Basin 70

3-24 Failure Frequency In Andrews 71

3-25 Failure Frequency In Midland 72

3-26 Failure Frequency In New Mexico 73

3-27 Failure Frequency In Denver 74

3-28 Failure Frequency In Levelland 75

3-29 Failure Frequency In Wasson 76

3-30 Failure Frequency In Monahans 77

3-31 Failure Frequency In MSAU-ANDREWS 78

3-32 Failure Frequency In Sundown 79

4-1 Failure Data Sheet 119

4-2 Failure Frequency Data Sheet 120

4-3 Total Failure Data Sheet 121

5-1 The Cumulative Distribution Function of Standardized Normal Distribution 129

5-2 Average Yearly Failure Frequencies 143

5-3 Coefficients of the Polynomial Regression Matrix 148

5-4 Coefficients of the Polynomial Regression Constant Vector 148

5-5 The Regression Coefficients 149

5-6 Results of Regression Analysis 150

Page 11: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

LIST OF FIGURES

1 -1 The Permian Basin 2

I -2 Permian Basin Geological Composition 3

2-1 Location of Wasson Field 6

2-2 Wasson San Andres Field 7

2-3 Wasson Clear Fork Field 8

2-4 Denver Unit Project Pattern 9

2-5 Denver Unit Structure 11

2-6 Subdivision of the San Andres Reservoir 12

2-7 Denver Unit Oil Production 14

2-8 Denver Unit Producfion and EOR History 14

2-9 1964-1980 Project Performance 17

2-10 Original Peripheral Waterflood Patterns 18

2-11 Waterflood Project Status in 1979 19

2-12 CO2 Injection Areas 31

2-13 Denver Unit Production and Injection History 32

2-14 Denver Unit Continuous Area Production Performance History 33

2-15 Denver Unit Continuous Area Oil Cut versus Cumulative Oil Production 34

2-16 Denver Unit Continuous Area Injection History 35

2-17 Denver Unit Continuous Area Hydrocarbon Gas-Oil-Ratio 36

2-18 Denver Unit WACO2 Area Oil Producfion History 39

2-19 Denver Unit WACO2 Area Project Patterns 39

2-20 Recent Injection Status 41

2-21 Recent Oil Production Response for the WACO2 Area 42

2-22 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Failure Frequencies 43

3-1 All Companies Total Failure Frequencies 80

3-2 All Companies Pump Failure Frequencies 81

3-3 All Companies Rod Failure Frequencies 81

3-4 All Companies Tubing Failure Frequencies 82

XI

Page 12: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

3-5 Andrews Total Failure Frequencies 82

3-6 Andrews Pump Failure Frequencies 83

3-7 Andrews Rod Failure Frequencies 84

3-8 Andrews Tubing Failure Frequencies 84

3-9 Midland Total Failure Frequencies 85

3-10 Midland Pump Failure Frequencies 85

3-11 Midland Rod Failure Frequencies 86

3-12 Midland Tubing Failure Frequencies 87

3-13 New Mexico Total Failure Frequencies 88

3-14 New Mexico Pump Failure Frequencies 88

3-15 New Mexico Rod Failure Frequencies 89

3-16 New Mexico Tubing Failure Frequencies 89

3-17 Denver Total Failure Frequencies 90

3-18 Denver Pump Failure Frequencies 90

3-19 Denver Rod Failure Frequencies 91

3-20 Denver Tubing Failure Frequencies 91

3-21 Levelland Total Failure Frequencies 92

3-22 Levelland Pump Failure Frequencies 92

3-23 Levelland Rod Failure Frequencies 93

3-24 Levelland Tubing Failure Frequencies 93

3-25 Wasson Total Failure Frequencies 94

3-26 Wasson Pump Failure Frequencies 94

3-27 Wasson Rod Failure Frequencies 95

3-28 Wasson Tubing Failure Frequencies 95

3-29 Monahans Total Failure Frequencies 96

3-30 Monahans Pump Failure Frequencies 96

3-31 Monahans Rod Failure Frequencies 97

3-32 Monahans Tubing Failure Frequencies 97

3-33 MSAU-ANDREWS Total Failure Frequencies 98

3-34 MSAU-ANDREWS Pump Failure Frequencies 98

XII

Page 13: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

3-35 MSAU-ANDREWS Rod Failure Frequencies 99

3-36 MSAU-ANDREWS Tubing Failure Frequencies 99

3-37 Sundown Total Failure Frequencies 100

3-38 Sundown Pump Failure Frequencies 100

3-39 Sundown Rod Failure Frequencies 101

3-40 Sundown Tubing Failure Frequencies 101

3-41 Company A Failure Frequencies 102

3-42 Company B Failure Frequencies 102

3-43 Company C Failure Frequencies 103

3-44 Company D Failure Frequencies 103

3-45 Company E Failure Frequencies 104

3-46 Company F Failure Frequencies 104

3-47 Company G Failure Frequencies 105

3-48 Company H Failure Frequencies 105

3-49 Company K Failure Frequencies 106

4-1 Pumping Well Failure Comprehensive Tree 110

4-2 Pumping Unit Failure Tree 111

4-3 Tubing Failure Tree 112

4-4 Sucker Rod Failure Tree 113

4-5 Downhole Pump Failure Tree 114

4-6 Casing Failure Tree 115

4-7 Wellhead Failure Tree and Notes 116

4-8 Sucker Rod Pumping System Stoppage Tree 118

4-9 Total Failure Frequency (Probability) 121

4-10 Andrews Failure Frequency (Probability) 122

4-11 Denver Failure Frequency (Probability) 123

4-12 Wasson Failure Frequency (Probability) 123

5-1 The Total Failure Frequency Distribution For All Companies 144

5-2 The Pump Failure Frequency Distribution For All Companies 145

5-3 The Rod Failure Frequency Distribution For All Companies 146

5-4 The Tubing Failure Frequency Distribufion For All Companies 147

5-5. Regression Curves of Failure Frequencies 150

XUl

Page 14: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

This thesis serves the research project. The Artificial Lift Energy Optimization

Consortium (ALEOC), which is funded by eleven oil companies in the Permian Basin.'*'

Today, as operators continually strive to cut operating costs and extend economic limits

of wells, proper equipment selection and efficient operating practices are becoming more

and more important. The ALEOC was formed to create a central informational database

including operating costs for lift systems, selection guidelines for proper lift methods,

correct lift-equipment sizing and operating procedure utilization for optimizing

production and decreasing lifting costs. The objectives of ALEOC are to share successes

and failures in production operations between consortium members, thereby reducing

present operating costs, increasing lift efficiency, extending lower-rate well producing

life and increasing oil well profitability. ALEOC will provide factual information to

producers that will ensure lower operating costs based on analysis of previous

experiences and implementations of existing technology. An important contribution by

the consortium will be to reduce the number of trials and evaluate new products,

recommended practices and services.

The Permian Basin of West Texas and Southeast comer of New Mexico is one of

the largest mature petroleum production bases in the world'"'' '"*'• ''*'• ' '' ' '. The oil

production is about a quarter of that in the United states. Estimates of petroleum

resources in the Permian Basin suggest that there are about 100 billion barrels of original

oil in place in known fields. The name "Permian Basin" derives from the city and

province of Perm, west of the Ural Mountains in the former Soviet Union. Other places in

the earth where such sedimentary beds occur have likewise received the designation of

Permian, since they were all formed during the same geological age. The producing area

of the Permian Basin is almost square, measuring about 260 miles on each axis (Fig 1-1).

The Texas portion of the Basin extends from Lubbock County and its neighbors on the

Page 15: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Roswell

LUBBOCK

HOCKLEY

Levelland Lubbock

LYNN

BORDEN

HOWARD

GLASSCOCK

KING

Colorado City • NOLAN

MITCHELL -L .

COKE

STERLING ,1

IRION

CROCKETT

San Angelo

TOM GREEN

SCHLEICHER

SUTTON

VAL VERDE EDWARDS

Fig. 1-1 The Permian Basin (From Walter Rundell, Jr., 1982, p.2)

Page 16: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Shallow-water platform reservoirs

Fig. 1-2 Permian Basin Geological Composition

(From West Geological Society, 1996, p.8)

north to Crockett County on the south. The east-west boundaries go from Tom Green to

Culberson County.

The New Mexico section of the Basin consists of Lea County and portions of Eddy,

Chaves, and Roosevelt counties. The Permian Basin is mainly composed of Delaware

Basin, Shefield Chanel, Southern Shelf, Central Basin Platform, Midland Basin, Eastern

Shelf, Northern Shelf and Northwestern Shelf (Fig. 1-2). There are more than 53 kinds of

Page 17: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

production formation rocks in the Permian Basin. Net pay depths var\' from 350 ft. in the

Seven Rivers formafion in Empire Field to 15,565 ft. in the Devonian formation in

Maljamar Field. At present, reservoirs in the Permian Basin are undergoing mainl\- water

flooding and CO, flooding.

At the present stage, different companies have different administration systems and

different methods to manipulate producfion and production databases. Producfion

companies are seeking optimal management for their own units. Despite the complexity

of the reservoir formafions and production fluids, there should be something in common

among all the companies. The cooperative companies are scattered in the Permian Basin.

Their production units cover most of the major producing formations. The research

results from data of these companies should be typical and applicable to all the units in

the Permian Basin. To best understand the data, reservoir and production history should

be traced. In Chapter 2, a relatively detailed description of Denver City Unit in Wasson

San Andres Field will be presented. Wasson San Andres field is one of the top old fields

in the Permian Basin. The San Andres reservoirs are among the most complex in the

Basin. Besides, there are a lot confusions among the provided data by companies, so

there is a need to clarify the names in the lists. Denver City Unit works as an example for

this purpose. There are 21 main San Andres units (Table 1-1) in West Texas.''^' Ten of

the San Andres units are located in Central Basin Platform; and the other eleven units in

North Shelf.

Sucker rod pumping is the most popular artificial lift method in Permian Basin and the

world. The ALEOC has mainly focused its endeavors on the sucker rod pumping

systems. The data provided by different companies are in different formats. To make the

data comparable, they should be pretreated, which is the main content of Chapter 3. The

yielded data are failure frequencies and graphs which are more straightforward to see.

Chapter 4 deals with the application of Fault Tree Analysis technique to the sucker rod

pumping system, which will sort out some facts behind the data provided by oil

companies. Chapter 5 will use the statistical method to analyze the pretreated data, which

Page 18: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

will present a rough picture of the sucker rod pumping failures in the Permian Basin. The

thesis will be concluded in Chapter 6 with some conclusions and suggestions.

Table l-l San Andres Units Data (From G.F. Lu, 1993. SPE 26503)

NAME OF FIELD/UNIT

ADAIR "SA"

FUHRMAN MASCHO/BLIO "GBSA"

FUHRMAN MASCH0/BL9 "GBSA"

JOHNSON/ "GB""SA"

JOHNSON/ "AB""SA"

LEVELLAND/N CEN UN "SA"

MABEE/JE MABEE/ 'A' "SA"

MEANS "SA"

OWNBY "SA"

OWNBY/BL GILSTRAP "SA"

SABLE"SA"

SEMINOLE/ "SA"

SHAFTER "SA"

SLAUGHTER/IGOE SMITH "SA"

TRIPLE-N "GB"

WASSON/BENNET "SA"

WASSON/CORNELL "SA"

WASSON/DENVER "SA"

WASSON/ROBERTS "SA"

WASSON/WILLARD "SA"

WASSON/SEMINOLE "SA"

PWS" 49.00

57.00

51.00

45.00

56.00

42.00

45.00

48.00

60.00

40.00

36.00

48.00

43.00

51.00

89.00

33.00

27.00

66.00

70.00

60.00

56.00

PR 15.63

10.37

11.63

12.33

8.17

14.51

9.48

14.70

14.60

12.44

19.81

18.82

13.98

14.83

10.14

8.23

12.06

12.40

13.46

7.30

7.39

WWS 41.00

52.00

29.00

32.00

22.00

31.00

22.00

36.00

50.00

32.00

21.00

30.00

34.00

26.00

51.00

24.00

21.00

43.00

36.00

44.00

39.00

WR 25.57

11.94

14.46

17.68

18.96

22.53

19.66

32.00

27.32

35.43

36.76

42.57

20.62

40.01

22.08

21.02

33.44

35.40

29.08

18.41

18.61

IWS 30.00

46.00

25.00

25.00

9.00

23.00

21.00

19.00

41.00

20.00

19.00

26.00

30.00

22.00

28.00

15.00

15.00

18.00

32.00

29.00

24.00

IR 37.30

13.02

18.06

20.73

28.11

40.60

22.07

37.79

30.10

42.41

43.07

51.04

21.75

42.99

25.53

25.44

36.27

42.40

31.51

23.30

23.54

** PWS

PR

WWS

WR

IWS

I R -

-- Primary Well Spacing;

- Primary Recovery Efficiency;

- Initial Waterflood Well Spacing;

- Waterflood Recovery Efficiency;

- Infill Drilling Spacing;

- Infill Drilling Recovery Efficiency.

Page 19: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

CHAPTER 2

LITERATURE REVIEW OF DENVER CITY UNIT

The Denver City Unit is one of the production units in Wasson Field. ' Wasson field

straddles the border of Yoakum and Gaines counties (Fig. 2-1). Discovered by C. J.

Davidson, a veteran driller from Fort Worth, the Wasson field's first well (in Yoakum

County) showed oil at 5085 feet on September 28, 1935. The second well, financed by

Amon G. Carter, publisher of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, and the Continental Oil

Company (now the Shell Oil Co. and Altura in the future), which have absorbed Marland

and Texon Oil and Land, was A. L. Wasson No. 1, completed in June, 1937. In

November, 1939, the promoters transported buildings from Wasson to Denver City. From

then on, Denver City grew in an orderly fashion. This field was utilized in 1964. The

Wasson field produces oil mainly from two kinds of formations: San Andres and Clear

Fork. The San Andres formation is between 4700-5200 feet deep, and the Clear Fork

formation is between 6150 to 7300 feet deep.

< U A D A L XJ P E .,

M O U N T A I N S

Fig. 2-1 Locafion of Wasson Field (From W.K. Ghauri, 1980, SPE 8406)

Page 20: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Today, the Wasson San Andres Field (usually abbreviated as Wasson Field) comprises

seven production units'^': Denver Unit (Shell Western E&P Inc.). Cornell Unit (Exxon),

Roberts Unit (Texaco), Willard Unit (Arco), O.D.C. Unit (Amoco), Bennett Ranch Unit

(Shell Western E&P Inc.) and Mahoney Lease (Mobil) (Fig. 2-2). The Wasson Clear

Fork Field ^^ consists of South Wasson CLFK Unit, Gaines Wasson CLFK Unit, Yoakum

Wasson CLFK Unit, Gibson Unit and Wasson North CLFK Unit (Fig. 2-3). The Wasson

field is currently under COj flood and is the largest CO2 in the world.

01 o X, 5 UJ

ROBERTS UNIT

(TEXACO)

WILLARD UNIT (ARCO)v

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

CORNELL UNIT / - S ^ ^ ^ (EXXON) p p J ^ ^ 8 8 § »

BENNETT RANCH UNIT

(SWEPt) V

^mK%. V" '1 MAHONEY LEASE ^^tJ^'''/\ ^x^ (MOBIL)

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ r WASSON ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ f \ ODC UNIT ^ ^ ^ ^ S ^ (AMOCO)

XXXrtxSP YOAKUM ca

* DENVER UNIT (SWEPI)

a i SEMINOLE SA UNIT

(AMERADA HESS)

ACTIVE C02 FLOODS

r~^ \ PLANNED C02 FLOODS

Fig. 2-2 Wasson San Andres Field (From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

Page 21: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

UCF -UPPER CLEARFORK FORMATION LCF - L O W E R CLEARFORK FORMATION

Fig. 2-3 Wasson Clear Fork Field (From West Texas Geological Society, 1996, p. 128)

Page 22: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Among the Wasson San Andres units, Denver Unit is the largest.'^' ''°' It is located in

Yoakum and Gaines County, on the Northwestern Shelf of the Permian Basin. In 1964,

the previous Wasson Field was split into the above seven units. Currently, the Den\ er

Unit covers an area of 21,000 acres. Daily oil production was about 37,000 BOPD and

gas production was 36 MMSCFPD in 1995. Active well number was about 750 (Fig.2-4).

Water flooding began just after its foundation in 1964. Full-scale COj injection began in

the mid 1984. Now each day more than 500 million SCF of CO2 are injected in more

than 400 injection wells. Cumulative oil production is about 1 billion STBO. Original Oil

in Place in the Denver Unit is estimated to be in excess of 2 billion STBBL.

m

r^"

^ lA IU I l " I t t S •

^ ^ 4 AA 4- ••A A A if" ;

Fig. 2-4 Denver Unit Project Pattern

(From West Texas Geological Society, 1996, p. 200)

Page 23: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

2.1. Formation Characteristics

The San Andres is a highly stratified, multi-cyclic shallow water platform

dolomitized carbonate unit that is over 1300 feet thick at the Denver Unit.'^' Depositional

models for the facies observed at the Denver Unit include outer-ramp subtidal open

marine facies grading into inner-ramp intertidal restricted marine facies and capped by

over 400 feet of nonpermeable interbedded peritidal algal dolomudstines. wackestones

and anhydrites. These overlying peritidal mudstones and anhydrites form the seal of the

accumulafion. The oil accumulation at Wasson is structurally controlled for the most part:

however, the northern and western extent is controlled by deterioration of porosity and

permeability. The shape of the Wasson Field structure at San Andres level is roughh

triangular with approximately 700 feet of closure and is bounded on the southeast and

southwest by steep flanks with dips up to 400 feet per mile. The Denver Unit is located at

the highest structural position in the Wasson Field (Fig. 2-5).

The Wasson San Andres Field has a primary gas cap that reaches its maximum

thickness of 300 feet in the crestal area of the Denver Unit with 90% of its extent residing

within the western and southern portion of the Denver Unit. The gas-oil contact (GOC)

established (-1325 ft.) by the working interest owners was based on a detailed review of

well completion intervals and corresponding GOR histories. The review found this

contact to be fairly consistent field-wide ranging between -1320 and -1330 ft. subsea.

The nominal oil-water contact (OWC) was also estimated during utilization efforts by

reviewing diagnostic data from some 90 wells across the field. This contact represents

the base of water-free completions during primary recovery operations and should not be

confused with a free-water level. Dipping from southwest to northeast, the OWC varies

from -1400 ft. subsea at its shallowest position in the southern portion of the unit to over

-1640 ft. subsea in the northern portion. With this 240-foot irregularity in gross oil

column thickness combined with stratigraphic and structural variations across the unit,

volumes change significantly in both vertical and lateral directions. The Transition Zone

(or residual oil zone) is that interval of the San Andres oil column lying directly below

10

Page 24: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

the OWC and above a transition zone base. The Transifion Zone contains both mobile

and immobile (waterflood residual) oil saturation.

Fig. 2-5 Denver Unit Structure (From West Texas Geological Society, 1996, p. 201)

The productive portion of the San Andres at the Denver Unit has been

stratigraphically subdivided into two major intervals (Fig. 2-6): First Porosity and Main

Pay. The First Porosity interval, generally termed the Upper San Andres, has been

characterized as a generally tight non-reservoir zone containing permeable stringers. This

interval consists of dolomitized intertidal dolomudstones and wackestones with

permeable stringers of fine-grained peloidal packstones and grainstones. The most

II

Page 25: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

GAMMA RAY SONIC T/)n

• • • ' • ' • ' ' '

APPROX LOWEST STRATIGRAPHIC

LIMITOFGOC

REGIONAL MARKER

"FERSr POROSITY" MARKER

MAIN PAY" MARKER

M3 LOWER 'MAIN PAY" MARKER

LEGEND

I GENERALLY GOOD RESERVOIR DEVELOPMENT

1 OCCASIONALLY GOOD i RESERVOIR DEVELOPMENT

•RESERVOIR DEVELOPMENT POOR

SCALE 50 FEET

EXAMPLE LOG SHOWING ZONAL SUBDIVISION OF SAN ANDRES RESERVOIR Figure 3

Fig. 2-6 Subdivision of the San Andres Reservoir

(From West Texas Geological Society, 1996, p. 202)

12

Page 26: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

important rock type in the First Porosity from a reservoir perspective is the peloidal

grainstones usually found at the top of the interval. Cycles developed in the First Porosity

are generally thinner, have poorer porosity development and exhibit less continuity

between wells than cycles found in the Main Pay.

The deeper Main Pay interval, loosely termed the Middle and Lower San Andres,

consists primarily of dolomitized. commonly burrowed, open marine skeletal and

peloidal packstones and wackestones and occasional grainstones. The cycles observed in

Main Pay are generally thicker and better developed than those in the First Porosity, with

the flow unit or cycle being mud-dominated wackestones coarsening upward into grain-

dominated packstonesand bounded above and below by non-permeable dolomudstones or

wackestones. The Main Pay possesses the most favorable reservoir and porosity

development and is generally the more continuous and permeable interval. Interparticle

and intercrystalline porosity contribute the majority of the permeability in the Main Pay.

Moldic porosity is widely distributed and contributes to pore volume but is onh effective

when present in otherwise permeable rock. Moldic porosity observed in the Main Pay is

principally from leached fossils, however, leached pellets are also present.

2.2 Denver Unit History

Denver Unit production and EOR history can be illustrated by Fig. 2-7 and Fig. 2-8'^'.

Detailed description is as follows.

2.2.1 1964-1980

2.2.1.1 Project Pattern Evolution'^'' ' '

In Wasson Field, the bulk of primary development at 40-acre well spacing was

completed by the early 1940's. Supplemental recovery operations were initiated with

utilization and commencement of water injection in 1964 (Fig. 2-9). The gross oil pay

thickness in the producing horizon, the Permian San Andres dolomite, varies between

200 and 500 ft. Owing to the structure of an anticline capped by dense dolomite and

13

Page 27: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Denver Unit Oil Production

Q eu O

m

o

150

125

100

75 -

5 0 -

25 -

0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Fig. 2-7 Denver Unit Oil Production

(From West Texas Geological Society, 1996, p. 204)

600000 1

400000-

200000-

Doily Oil Production ( bbb) Doily V/'aler Injeclion ( bbis) Ooily CD2 Injection ( Mscf)

: V

I

*\t

W|

,..,pl,.l.,,., , I ,, I I ,. -p.^.^.f^.)M.,-y»,...pi^.|...n-p.,...).-^|-—T^-l-^-.-T^-T-^-'-r^T-'T"'" r"' I ' I ' I " I I T " I • I ' I ' I ' I ' I ' I 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

Fig. 2-8 Denver Unit Production and EOR History

(From West Texas Geological Society, 1996, p. 205)

14

Page 28: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

underlain by an essentially inactive aquifer, solution-gas was the primary producing

mechanism in the early days. Table 2-1 shows a summary of the basic project data.

Although some production occurred from the gas cap, primarily before utilization. Shell's

policy during the water flooding operations was to leave the gas cap unexploited to

conserve reservoir energy and prevent waste by the migration of oil into the gas cap.

When utilization was effected in 1964, the geologic concept of the reservoir was a

simplistic one and was markedly different from the rather complex model that has

evolved today. The original definition of the San Andres reservoir was based on gross

geologic correlations of the reservoir-quality rock and the assumption that this rock

largely was interconnected over the entire extent of the unit. The old geological concept

led to the original peripheral injection design (Fig. 2-10). Wherein existing producers

along the periphery of the unit were converted to injectors during 1964-66. As the

waterflood progressed, it became apparent that the peripheral flood design was not

effective; the water injection wells were located thousands of feet distant from the interior

producers, which have no backup injection.

An in-depth geological interpretation was made using detailed well log and core data

as well as the environmental conditions that controlled original rock deposition. This

investigation was focused on the rock continuity that can be expected between two

adjacent wells. This distance for the Denver Unit was about 1300 ft., i.e., 40-acre well

spacing. The study indicated that the San Andres rock sequences are well-bedded and

that impermeable barriers have relatively wide lateral extent. The permeable layers

showed discontinuities and exhibited the highly varying permeability commonly

associated with carbonates, but no ordered anisotropy was detected. These data

suggested that waterflooding in this carbonate reservoir should be highly efficient at the

proper producer/injector spacing and that, in view of pay discontinuities, unflooded oil

would be left behind in the reservoir at 40-acre well spacing. This type of work ga\ e rise

to the new geological concept of "continuous" and "discontinuous" pay. Continuous pay

Page 29: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 2-1 Summary of the Denver Project Data (From W.K. Ghauri, 1980, SPE 8406)

PARAMETERS DESCRIPTION & VALUES

Formation Permian San Andres dolomite Structure Anticline Average depth, ft (m) 5,200 (1585) Gas/oil contact, ft (m) - 1,325 ( - 404) Oil/water contact, f t (m) - 1,400 to - 1,650 ( - 427 to - 503) Average porosity, % 12 Average permeability, md ± 5 Average net oil pay thickness, ' ft <m) 137(41.8) Oil gravity, "API (g/cm^) 33 (0.86) Reservoir temperature, °F("C) 105(40.6) Total acres (m2) in entire reservoir 62,500(253x10® m^) Number of acres (m2) 27,848(113 x 10« m^) Number of productive acres (m^) 25,505 (103 x 10® m^) Date reservoir discovered April 15,1936 Date Texas Railroad Commission approved injection Oct. 14,1964 Date of first injection Nov. 1,1964 Date unitization effective Nov. 1,1964 Primary producing mechanism Solution gas (depletion) Flood pattern Inverted nine-spot and

peripheral Number of wells (at completion of 1978 Infill) 1,217

Producers 860 Injectors 3^3 Plugged and abandoned 14

Original reservoir pressure, psi(MPa) 1,805(12.45) Bubble-point pressure, psi (MPa) 1,805(12.45) Average pressure at start of secondary recovery,

psi (MPa) =fc800/=fc1,100(±5.5/=b7.6) Initial oil formation volume factor 1.312 Solutlon-gas/oil ratio at original pressure,

cu ft/bbi (m3/m3) - • • • 420(76) GOR at start of secondary recovery, cu ft/bbI (m^/m^) 4,060 (731) GOR at current conditions, cuft /bbl(m3/m3) ± 6 0 0 ( ± 1 0 8 ) Oil viscosity at 60*F(15.6*C) and ±1 ,100 psi

(0.76 MPa), c p ( P a s ) 1 . 1 8 ( 1 . 1 8 x 1 0 - 3 ) Original oil in place (Denver Unit Engmeering Committee) , - bbl(m3) S-:I2!'':1S9 S^^^^'^Ss Revised original oil in place,*• bbl (m^) 2.166 x 10^ (0.344 x lO^) ''Tt>H^^^. °'.^'.°''."':*.'°".^.'."!*'^'"'" °* ""''.' 185.643.000 (2.95 x 10®) Cumulative oil production since unitization as of

Sept 1 1978 bbl (m^) 421,748,000(6.7 x 10®) 1977 average dkily oil production rate, B/D(m3/d) . . . 137,200 (21.8x 10^) Cumulative gas production at initiation of unit, . n o ^ . n 9 / i i A^•^n9^

c u f t ( m 3 ) 4 0 Z X 1 U n i . ^ x i u ; Cumulative gas production since unitization to ^«9/^o « ^-•n9x

Seot 1 1 ^ 8 cu ft (m^) 442 x 10" (12.5 x 10") 1977 average dkily gas production rate, cu ft/D (m^/d) 85 x 10® (2.41 x 10®) Cumulative water production at initiation of unit,

bbl (m^) 3,163,000 (OOJ X i u ) ""Teot^V'To^l'b't^'jm^^f'^^ ' ' " ' ^ " . " * " ^ ' ' ° " 241.570,000 (3841 x 103) 1977 average dkily water production rate, B/D(m3/d) 153,000(24.3x103)

' ' " b ' E u m T ^^'^' '"^^''*'' '" ' ° ^^' ' ' ' '' '^^^' 1,382.190.000 (219.75 x 10®) 1977 averagedai iy water injection rate, B/D(m3/d) . . 457 ,300(72 .7x103) Source of iSjection water Ogallala and produced

•Does not include deeper Mg oil pay penetrated in one of the infill proorams; does not include gas-cap pay. ••Includes MQ pay.

16

Page 30: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

is that portion of the total net pay that is correlatable or connected between two adjacent

wellbores at the well spacing existing in a particular reservoir. Discontinuous pa\ is the

balance of the net pay not connected between two adjacent wellbores. In such a reservoir,

if one were to drill infill wells at a spacing closer than existed previously, some of the

discontinuous pay would become continuous in the sense that a larger percentage of the

total net pay would be correlatable between closer adjacent wellbores in the waterflood

development pattern. A qualification of pay continuity for the Denver Unit suggested

that if the well spacing were to be reduced from 40 to 20 acres per well, pay continuity

would be enhanced significantly and the reserves would be increased accordingly.

Additionally, in a pattern drive project with impermeable barriers extending over

distances of several well locations, the injected fluids in a permeable pay member will be

contained and will provide the drive within the pay member with a minimum of

crossflow occurring in the reservoir from one pay member to another. The present

subdivisions of the San Andres reservoir in the Denver Unit is shown in Fig. 2-6.

UMrr EFFcerivt •ArCKllUtCTIOH

CWMCMtO

I M n«AM II HUMMItt

fFFICTtVC tRAITID

NEVOIIK MtfOMM A l l O W M l f AILOWMIE

BRANTEO « I U I T f t

1.000.000 I U~ZM ?I0MI4-«*

I m 100.000

a ^ 10.000

1.000

I 1 ~ l - M

.

i

$-3-17 1 .1 -M

RESCRVOIR VOIOAQE

•^^'

t '

: t t

r\ V -

w"

k 1 1

«

A - - ' -

; -

' " ( •

/ ••/

v^.

r f

1 i i

>

m / 1

3

\ \

4

/ V

oK

v-x-r^ I ,'-»-»» WATCR INJf CTION HATE

OOR

f-*«C-

.

^ H J I * - — .

OtLP noouc

. / •"

j f ' \ . ^

:T to«

y^

••• -*-

HATE

^^"^

« WATER rROOUCriON NATE

» • • — * , - • "

> * * ^

d

-> '*

^

laooo

I 1.000 I

o

1M7 IMO ta 1070 1071 1072 1073 1974 H7B 1070 1077 107O 1070 \\ 100

Fig. 2-9 1964-1980 Project Performance (From W.K. Ghauri, 1980, SPE 8406)

17

Page 31: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

I .T i f •? A*

• NJECTIONWILL * • • PBOOOCTIOW Wf 11.

— DENVER UNIT BOUNDARY

iz, • •• • '

r^''::'r.':.:::\J~^ » • » »

Fig. 2-10 Original Peripheral Waterflood Patterns (From W.K. Ghauri, 1980, SPE 8406)

In association with an improved geological understanding of the pay continuity,

detailed reservoir engineering work was carried out by means of mathematical modeling

and reservoir simulation predictive techniques to determine: (1) how the flood design

could be modified to provide drive response in the total net continuous and discontinuous

floodable pay in the Wasson San Andres field, and (2) how the supplemental recovery

efficiency could be enhanced further in the Denver Unit waterflood project. Based on

this work, a pattern approximating 20-acre inverted nine-spot arrangement (theoretical

producer/injector ratio of 3:1) was judged to be economically the optimum flood design

for Denver Unit. Accordingly, in late 1969 Shell embarked on a 20-acre infill

development program that continued until the 1980s. In 1979 the project status with 20-

acre infill development is shown in Fig. 2-11. The modified pattern flood design has

improved the areal sweep efficiency greatly (approximately 90%). By the end of 1979.

the infill programs and pattern modifications included the drilling of 481 new producers

18

Page 32: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

and 42 new injectors, the purchase of 17 wellbores (15 producers and two injectors), and

the conversion of 135 existing producers to injectors, a total of 675 wells. In 1980. the

well count is 902 producers and 363 injectors, or a total 1265 wells.

trrrrr • •

• V» • • • f

• • • W

'- • » • • •

ff -i

. » - T .

- . - » • • • » f • T . • • - • • •

• • • • ' . . . » • f • T T T

T . . . V , " . ' , • •

t • • •

» • ? T , ^ . . . . - . .

• T f ^ • • • « • » • • • • , - • , I . • " ' . »

' » » » ?

• • -•

, • . ' • • • • » • ' ? I * I T ' T '

. • • • » • » T

T . • ' • • ' . * . T • » • • ?

• • • • ' • T . T « f « . . . « » • • » » • • • • > •

- - , V

• • T • • J , . . - T . - ^

• • • • • • , T

• « • • •

• • ? • • • . T

• » • • ? » • • • •

• •• • , I •» • »

¥ IMACTIoroVEl i • •>HU0(ICTIO<l»IMELl

DENVER UNIT HOUNOAHV

I . . . . » . , . I

Fig. 2-11 Waterflood Project Status in 1979 (From W.K. Ghauri, 1980, SPE 8406)

2.2.1.2 Production Technology Practices

2.2.1.2.1 Openhole versus Cased-Hole Completions. Of the approximately 700 active

wells in the Denver Unit in 1964 when water injection began, more than 90% have been

completed barefoot or openhole, with the casing string cemented at the top of the

productive San Andres zone. In view of the geological and reservoir concepts discussed

earlier, it became apparent that water injection must take place in correlative pay

members. With this in mind, all new infill producers and injectors have been cased

through the productive zone and have been perforated selectively in correlative pay

members. Flood response and profile conformance are substantially superior to openhole

completion in such a carbonate reservoir.

Page 33: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

2.2.1.2.2 Fiberglass versus Steel Liner Installations. In the early phase of the

waterflood project, selected existing production wells (which were openhole completions)

were converted to injectors by simply pulling out the downhole production equipment

and running in an injection string with packer set in the production casing immediately

above the openhole productive zone. Dictated by the new geological concepts and

relevant project performance, the decision was made to install liners in nearly all of these

injectors and to perforate selectively correlative pay intervals. The only exception was

the group of peripheral injectors along the limits of the accumulation where the rock

quality was poor, the injectivity was low, and the reservoir pressure have built up to near

formation-parting pressures. Hole deterioration and resulting fill or bridging problems

have been experienced in many openhole injectors. These hole problems were attributed

to fresh injection water leaching out anhydrite lentils in the interbedded San Andres

dolomite formation, causing the rock to slough into the hole. Concurrent with the hole

deterioration was the lack of desirable injection profiles. Permeability variations were

causing preferential drive in only the good-quality rock pay members. Injection water in

the Denver Unit project was either fresh water (200 ppm chloride and 8 ppm oxygen)

from a shallow sand formation or produced San Andres water with formation water

salinities ranging from 30,000 to 120,000 ppm chloride. Because of the corrosive nature

of the injection waters, an innovation was made wherein fiberglass strings rather than

steel strings were installed in these injectors. The use of fiberglass pipe in injectors was a

first in the industry for carbonate waterfloods of west Texas and New Mexico.

Experience with fiberglass strings has been exceptionally good. The fiberglass strings

were cemented opposite the productive zone either as a combination string in new

injection wells or as a liner installation in existing well conversions. These strings have

controlled formation fill, have provided injection profile control, and have been an

insurance against tubular corrosion. Injection tubing strings run in all of the injectors

were internally plastic-coated steel tubing with packers to isolate the crossover between

the steel and fiberglass casing. These have provided a protective system for corrosive

20

Page 34: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

waters. No problems have been encountered that were unique to using fiberglass tubulars

in these applications. Other than perforating with a hollow carrier gun and using

formation or cup-type packers inside the fiberglass, no special precautions ha\ e been

necessary. The liners have been set with conventional liner-setting techniques. Cements

used have been Class H saturated salt cement and Class C cement with 0.25 Ibm/sack

cellophane flakes. A friction-reducing additive also have been used to reduce pumping

pressures. Since the epoxy resin on the exterior of the fiberglass have a very smooth,

slick surface, the pipe is either sandblasted or rough -coated to assure adhesion of the

cement to the pipe. Subsequent communication tests and injection profile surveys have

shown similar success in realizing zonal segregation in fiberglass-cased injection wells as

that obtained in steel-cased production wells. Should the cement fail to circulate around

the top of the liner, squeeze cementing around the liner have been done satisfactorily.

Thus drilling cement inside the fiberglass liner with a rock bit have presented no

problems. After being cemented, the liners have been loaded with fresh water and

pressure-tested from 1500 to 1600 psi, the maximum surface injection pressure expected

under normal operating conditions. The liners then have been perforated with steel

hollow-carrier select -fire mechanically decentralized jet-perforating guns. There were no

indications of damage from perforating with the hollow-carrier gun under downhole

conditions. The selectively perforated intervals have been acidized satisfactorily with

hydrochloric acid using a closely spaced cup straddle packer assembly. Fiberglass pipe

sizes available consisted of 23/8 -in., 3 '/a-in., and 4!/2-in. API 3"* EUE threaded and

coupled , as well as 5 V2 -in. and 7-in. 3"* LT&C. Most conventional logs can be run

inside fiberglass pipe. Radioacfivity water tracer logs were run routinely to evaluate

injection profiles. Gamma ray compensated neutron logs also were obtainable to

determine intervals to perforate and have proved to be comparable quantitatively with

those run in openhole. Induction-electrical logs can be run through fiberglass pipe

because this device relies on propagation and detection of magnetic eddy currents and

was not affected by the fiberglass. However, focused resistivity devices carmot be used

21

Page 35: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

because the highly resistive fiberglass pipe does not provide a conducti\e path for

focused electrical current.

2.2.1.2.3 Well Complefion and Well Stimulation. The drilling of new wells has

presented no special problem except in certain areas of the unit where a shallow high

pressure inert-gas zone existed. Hole problems caused by this zone ha\ e been handled by

weighting up the mud to kill the flow and/or by running a long intermediate string. The

basic mud system consisted of a simple native brine mud with water loss maintained at

less than 15 cm^ while drilling through the pay zone. To minimize communication

behind the pipe, rough-coated or sand-blasted casing have been cemented through the pay

interval. Other measures that have contributed to success are centralizers and scratchers

across the pay zones, circulating a low-water-loss preflush ahead of the cement slurry and

reciprocating the casing while cementing. The cement has consisted of a lightweight (12-

Ibm/gal) filler cement followed by neat (15-lbm/gal) cement slurry across the pay zone.

In all wells, attempts are made to circulate the cement to the surface as an insurance

against future casing failures. To maintain separation or zonal segregation between the

correlative pay members and across impermeable barriers, the pay zones have been

perforated selectively, leaving blank pipe opposite the impermeable barriers between

adjacent sets of perforations. The individual selective perforations have been acidized

either singly or in pairs using closely spaced (6- to 10-ft spacing) straddle packers while

holding treating pressures below fracturing gradients, i.e., by low-rate, low-volume, low-

pressure matrix acidization techniques. Extreme care is taken so that the rock adjacent to

the wellbore and the cement sheath are not fractured during stimulation operations.

Communication checks of adjacent perforations are made during treatment with the

current success ratio in excess of 50%. As the flood has progressed, wells have been re­

entered and additional correlative pay members have been perforated and treated, as

dictated by the advance of the water banks around the injectors and the performance of

responding producers. In existing openhole wells, inflatable straddle packers with a

maximum spacing of about 30 ft. have been used. If hole conditions would not permit

11

Page 36: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

safisfactory packer seats, sfimulafion has been diverted mechanically or chemically. This

has been done by use of ball sealers, rock salt, or benzoic acid flakes in 200- to 300-

Ibm/gal in gelled carrying fluid. This type of treatment is the only choice for such old

openhole wells and was not considered to be the preferable type of sfimulafion inasmuch

as individual perforations cannot be treated effectively. Perforating was done with

casing-carrier select-fire guns using deep penetrating jet charges in acid spotted opposite

the zone, and there was a pressure overbalance on the formation. Data on underbalanced

perforafing are meager. Shell operafing policy have consisted of exceeding

injection/voidage balance, as can be seen from the performance curves (Fig. 2-9).

Accordingly, the pressure level in the reservoir have been continued to rise with time.

Reservoir pressure ranged between 800 and 1100 psi at the commencement of water

injection. Extensive buildup and falloff data obtained during 1977 showed the pressures

to range between 1480 and 2630 psi. Thus, it was believed that the producfivity benefits

to be derived from the underbalanced perforating in such a situation of increasing

reservoir pressure would not be great and not justify the additional risk and expense.

Most perforations would not take or give up significant volumes of fluid before

stimulation. Therefore, stimulation is a must for all wells. The basic stimulation fluid is

15%) HCl containing a corrosion inhibitor and a nonemulsifying agent. Although higher-

and lower-strength acids have been used. Shell experience suggested that the 15%) acid

was a reasonable compromise between cost and production gain. In 1980, guidelines for

new perforations were to use approximately 1200 gal of acid per 1.0 (j)h (fractional

porosity times net pay thickness in feet) of treated interval or 400 to 800 gal of acid per

perforation. Normally, for a 10-ft. pay interval as interpreted from sonic porosity log, the

perforation density was about two perforations per 1.0(()h. The guidelines for old

perforations were to use approximately 1.5 times new perforation design volume of 1200

gal, i.e., 1800 gal of acid per 1.0(|)h. The maximum allowable treating pressure normally

was limited to 0.7-psi/ft. fracturing gradient at perforafion depth. By far the majority of

stimulation was done for calcium carbonate scale removal. In certain areas of the unit.

23

Page 37: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

however, calcium sulfate (gypsum) scale impairment have been encountered. Commonl\'

used dissolvers of gypsum scale were manufactured brine solutions in which the

solubility of gypsum increases due to salinity effects and chelafing agents. Downhole

scale inhibition of pumping wells with some scaling problems has been done

safisfactorily by batch-treating or continuous injection down the casing/tubing annulus by

means of a small posifive displacement surface pump.

2.2.1.2.4 Injection Profile Control. A significant effort has been made to improve the

vertical sweep efficiency in both existing production wells converted to injectors and new

wells drilled as injectors. The technique mainly has been mechanical-i.e., cementing

liners opposite the openhole productive zone in the former type of wells and completing

with solidly cemented casing opposite the productive zone in the latter type of wells. The

correlative zones then have been perforated and acid-treated selectively. The operating

strategy has been to attempt to distribute the injected water in accord with each zone's

porosity-thickness product, ^h. Treating pressure during acid stimulation jobs has been

kept below formation fracturing pressures to maintain zonal isolation behind pipe in the

vicinity of the wellbore. Likewise, water injection rates and pressures have been kept

below fracturing gradients. Injection profile analyses based on radioactivity tracer

surveys routinely run in injection wells have been corroborated by the performance of

surrounding producers as well as log, core, production test, and pressure buildup data

obtained in the 10-acre pilot and the COj pilot. The key to success appeared to be the

proper profile control in the immediate vicinity of the wellbore. The vertical sweep

efficiency (90% in 1980) has been enhanced greatly by the completion and operating

practices. Additional techniques employed toward the improvement of injection profiles

have included sand injecfion to reduce water receptivity of permeable pay members ,

high-rate/high-pressure tank truck acidization to improve overall injectivity, and string

shot/acidizafion of poor-quality rock as well as selective acidizafion treatments.

The sand injection technique for profile improvement in a carbonate reservoir was an

innovation in the Denver Unit project. The results have been highly satisfactory. The

24

Page 38: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

treatment has been inexpensive and the procedure very simple. For the most part, the

sand has been obtained from the waste pit at the desander plant of the Wasson water

supply system. The sand (100 Tyler mesh) was being produced from the shallow

Ogallala freshwater source wells that provided a percentage of the injection water for the

project. A truck-mounted jet-type mixer and pump arrangement has been used for

creafing the sand/water slurry (±1 Ibm/gal) and injecting it into the well through a nipple

screwed into the top of the wellhead. The ability of the wells to accept the sand have

been due primarily to the anhydrite dissolution in the dolomite formafion as a result of

continuing water injection in the project. Volumes of sand have been injected into the

perforations that have exceeded the calculated volume of the borehole in an injection

well. Inasmuch as the San Andres dolomite formation in the Denver Unit project did not

have in-situ fracturing based on extensive coring, and fractures were not induced during

injection and stimulation practices. It was interpreted that the dissolution of the anhydrite

have created sufficient void in the dolomite rock. By and large, the sand have gone into

the pay members having excessive water receptivity, regardless of their depth within the

total pay interval. Normally, the overall injection rate after the job have decreased

somewhat, the surface injection pressure have increased correspondingly, and the

injection profile have been improved to coincide more nearly with the (j)h-derived ideal

profile. Additionally, the treated wells have confinued to match or exceed the pattern

production voidage. In light of the prospects for the CO2 tertiary recovery process in the

Denver Unit, consideration must be given to the long-term effects of any remedial

operation. High-rate/high-pressure tank truck acidization and string shot/acidization

normally have been employed in the poor-quality rock. Injectors along the periphery

have low injection rates, with bottomhole pressures having built up to >3000 psi. In such

injectors, the majority of which were still openhole complefions, expensive stimulation

treatments were not warranted. Accordingly, these inexpensive methods have been used

with good results. The tank truck acid jobs occasionally have been done on selected

interior injectors where the profiles were acceptable except that the injection rates were

25

Page 39: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

lower than desirable. An acceptable improvement in injecfivity could be realized with

the tank truck job. The technique consisted of tying into the wellhead and injecting

±20,000 gal of 15% HCl with a nonemulsifying agent, using an acid transport and a pump

truck. Acid was injected at 0.5 to 1 bbl/min until pressure break occurred, following

which acid was injected at a high rate with the one available truck. The string shot job in

an openhole peripheral injector simply consisted of detonating the string shots opposite

various intervals, checking for fill for possible cleanout, and returning the well to

injection. Selective acidization treatments that were the more routine types of jobs for

interior injectors were similar to those done in the producers and have been discussed.

Following major interior injection expansion in the Denver Unit project, 22 injectors

were completed initially with dual strings and the balance were completed as single-string

injectors. It was believed that better profile control could be exercised by the former

mode of injection because of permeability variations in individual pay members. In the

course of conducting the project, this type of completion have been found to be less

desirable than the single-string method. Accordingly, the decision was made and carried

out to replace all of the dual-string completions with single completions.

2.2.1.2.5 Artificial Lift. Of particular interest in the production aspects of a

waterflood is the lift efficiency of the response producers in the project. It is imperative

that the production wells be pumped down to minimize bottomhole producing pressures

and, accordingly, to minimize backflow in the producing wellbore. To coincide with the

major infill drilling programs, a study was undertaken to determine the economics of 7-

versus 5 '/2-in. casing strings as related to lift efficiency. The objective of the study were

to determine (1) gas separation efficiency in two casing strings, (2) the producing

capabilities of the two casing strings in wells of different capacities, and (3) present-value

economics of the two strings in areas of high productive capacity, i.e.. areas with pressure

falloff-derived kh values in excess of 500 md-ft. Based on this study, most of the new

infill producers have been cased with 7-in. strings. Experience has shown that this was

the right decision, as most of these wells have been pumped down and were being

26

Page 40: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

produced at capacity. Another added bonus has been in casing repair jobs that required

the running of an inner string. In such wells, lift efficiency has not been hampered to the

degree that it would have been in the S-Yi-in. cased wells. The new policy was to case all

new producers with 7-in. strings in anticipafion that the total fluid producfion rates and

water cuts would continue to rise as the water injection rates were increased in the project

and as the flood matured. Among the acfive producers in the Denver Unit in 1980, there

were 154 submersible installafions, and the balance were beam-unit installations, nearly

all of which have high-slip motors. The distribution of the beam units was as follows:

295 wells have API 640's, 234 have 456's, and the balance have 320's or smaller. Most

new infill wells then were being equipped with 640's. The high-slip motors generally

have allowed for the project's well depths and producing capacities, the use of a gear box

one API size smaller than would have been required normally, with the attendant capital

cost reductions. The 640's were installed on wells with producing capacities of 400 to

600 BFPD, with the smaller units installed on wells with successively lower capacities.

The gear-box failures have been minimal. Initially, submersible units were selected for

artificial lift of those wells located in and about the city limit of Denver City, TX, for

reasons of safety, ecology, and aesthetics. However, as flood response continued and the

gas/liquid ratios (GLR's) declined, the producing capacity of numerous wells began to

exceed the capability of the large-size 640-beam unit. Submersible pumping became a

satisfactory solufion for artificial lift of wells with producing capacities in excess of 600

BFPD. Well conditions in the project such as decreasing GLR's, increasing water cuts,

increasing reservoir pressures, increasing fluid producfion rates, large-size (7- and 5-/2-

in.) casing strings and moderate temperatures have been highly amenable to submersible

pumping.

The average run time between failures for all sucker rod pump installations that have

failed at least once was approximately 15 months, with a range of about 2 to 20 months.

Analysis of the well performance data along with the examinafion of the failed pumps

indicated that failures could be attributed to malfunctioning of cable, motor, pump, and

27

Page 41: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

seal. The major reasons for these failures have been inferior cable, electrical storms,

scale deposition, and missized units. Continued operafion of oversized units ha\'e caused

excessive downthrust loading on pump stages and motor heating, resulting in unit

failures. The earlier low-density polyethylene-insulated cables were prone to be im aded

and degraded by formafion fluids, causing electrical shorts and unit failures. The cable

being used in 1980 was of improved quality and consisted of No.6 copper conductors

with polypropylene ethylene insulation protected by galvanized steel armor. Casing size

was an important factor in submersible pump performance. The better performance

should occur in the larger casing size because of greater annular space for gas separation.

Submersible pumping also was preferable to rod pumping in directionally drilled holes

because of rod and tubing wear and a greater incidence of fishing jobs. The initial capital

cost of a typical submersible pump installafion was $30,000 to $35,000 versus $45,000 to

$50,000 for a 640-beam unit. Detailed study of electrical power, pump repair, and related

pulling costs suggested that the submersible unit was comparable with the 640-beam unit

for a well with a producing capacity of about 600 BFPD. Proper design of a submersible

unit is extremely important under the dynamic conditions of a responding waterflood.

This requires continual surveillance of well inflow performance parameters. Vogel's

inflow performance relationship (IPR) have been found to reasonably describe the

production/pressure-drawdown conditions for most Denver Unit producers. The

submersible pumps in the Denver Unit were producing over a wide range of fluid

volumes from 200 to about 1000 BFPD. The horsepower requirement ranged from 30 to

80 hp, with an average of some 200 stages needed to lift fluid from an average pump

depth of about 4900 ft. The surface transformer system was made up of three 50-kVA

single-phase transformers of 12,500/700 to 1400 V with two 5% taps above and below

normal. The switchboard were Size 3, 1500 V, 150 hp, 100 A, and equipped with a

Kratos protection control center.

2.2.1.2.6 Computer Producfion Control. Computer producfion control (CPC) facilities

as a means of improving well surveillance and operating efficiencies were installed in

28

Page 42: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

1975 on a pilot basis in one of eight production batteries in the Denver Unit. Based on

satisfactory operafional data, in 1980 a full-scale expansion of CPC facilifies for the

entire unit was under way. The test battery area contained 76 beam-pumped wells, four

satellite separafion and test facilities, and treafing and storage facilities. The pumpoff

control (POC) portion of the system that monitors and controls the individual wells, as

well as automatic well testing, became operational in 1977. The POC technique has

proved to be a reliable method for determining when a well is pumped off. The computer

uses data from a well to calculate energy input to the rod string during a portion of the

stroke. When the energy drops below a specified limit the well is considered pumped off.

A limit can be set so that the well shuts down for any degree of pumpoff. The POC

program also checks for abnormal load conditions and either shuts the well or alerts the

operator. To enhance well surveillance, a sucker rod diagnostic program was

implemented in the field computer. Data can be transferred on request from the POC

computer to the field computer for analysis. Results normally were returned to the

operator in a few seconds. From the results, the operator can determine how the pump is

performing and detect any abnormal conditions that might be occurring in the well. The

"'on-line" combination of POC, automatic well testing, and sucker rod diagnostics ha\'e

given the field a powerful surveillance tool. As a result of improved pumping

efficiencies and timely matching of the pumping rate to inflow characteristics, electrical

power consumption have been reduced, well equipment changes have been carried out

promptly, pump repair jobs have declined, and producfion have been accelerated.

In 1980, some 250 jobs per year were done involving the types of operations

discussed. Of these jobs, approximately 75% were performed on producers, the balance

were on injectors. This was consistent with the producer/injector ratio in the unit. The

typical producer and injector jobs cost $10,000 and $8000 per job, respectively. The

average gain in production per producer job is about 40 BOPD or an average expense of

about $240 per 1 BOPD increase.

29

Page 43: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

2.2.2 1980-present

2.2.2.1 Project Pattern Evolufion'^J""''""

Despite the lack of a uniform pattern, waterflooding of the Denver Unit San Andres

reservoir, with its favorable mobility ratio and limited vertical permeability, was very

successful, resulting in peak oil rates of 150,000 BOPD in 1975. Due to the clear success

of the Denver Unit waterflood and the high waterflood residual oil saturations

(approximately 40%), EOR process studies were began in the mid 1970s to determine the

magnitude and economic feasibility of various EOR projects for the unit. Laboratory

experiments concluded that miscible CO, injection could result in significant EOR

potential in these reservoirs. Furthermore, CO, flooding have been successfully

employed in other Permian Basin fields (Kelly-Snyder and Crossett). With the (then)

recent discovery of large naturally occurring COj reserves in Colorado and New Mexico,

a CO2 pilot was designed and proposed for the Denver Unit. A CO, pilot was initiated in

1978 and analysis of this pilot, (1) confirmed that adequate CO2 injection and follow-up

water injection rates could be attained, and (2) qualified the reduction in oil saturation

resulting from CO2 injection in a portion of the field at waterflood residual oil saturation.

Following extensive coring and a brine preflood to establish baseline oil saturations and a

uniform reservoir pressure, CO2 was injected at miscible conditions. Throughout the CO2

and brine postflood phases of the pilot, logging observation wells continuously monitored

changes in oil saturation attributable to the CO, contacting, swelling, and displacement of

the remaining oil in this watered out portion of the reservoir. Postflood cores confirmed

the desaturation of oil interpreted from logging runs. A successful history match of the

CO2 pilot was obtained using a four component (COj, water, and both light and heavy oil

fraction), four phase, 3D, miscible, simulafion model. The results of this history match

were built into a pattern prototype element representing one quarter of an inverted 9-spot

pattern. This pattern prototype was then scaled up to represent the potential for a field

scale flood. The CO2 flood was designed to be staged, with CO2 produced from the initial

30

Page 44: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

(eastern) flood area used to flood the final (western) injection area, thus making most

effective use of this valuable injectant.

In preparation for the CO2 flood, the random waterflood pattern was "regularized"

into inverted 9-spot patterns. In addition, reservoir pressure was reduced from 3200 psi

to 2200 psi in order to improve the volumetric efficiency of the CO2 injection (and yet

maintain reservoir pressures above the MMP of 1300 psi). The original flood design

allowed for a side-by-side comparison of both Continuous and Water-Alternating-CO.

(WACO2) injecfion (Fig. 2-12) within the Initial Injecfion Area (IIA). In both cases, an

ultimate slug of 40% HCPV (the hydrocarbon bearing pore volume of the reservoir at

initial conditions) would be injected, followed by water injecfion until the economic limit

was reached. The intent of this dual process test was to determine which injection

strategy was best suited for Denver Unit operating condifions. CO2 injection began in the

WACO2 Area (southern IIA) in April, 1983, and a year later, in 1984, in the Confinuous

Area (north IIA). Fig.2-13 shows the Denver Unit producfion and injection history.^"'

1 L

Initial Injection Area (IIA)

Fig. 2-12 CO2 Injection Areas (From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

31

Page 45: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

600

o Ul I -u IU

o IU

a 3 lU oc % CD OC 5 IU CO IU oc

" • • • • ' ' ' •' 0

8101 B201 8301 8401 8S01 8601 8701 8801 8B01 9001 0101 0201

OIL PROD

WATCR INJ

TOTAL INJ

C02iNJ

Fig. 2-13 Denver Unit Production and Injection History

(From E.A. Fleming, 1992, SPE 24157)

2.2.2.2 Continuous Area EOR Performance

The early production performance of the Continuous Area has been quite

encouraging. Oil production response was observed soon after injection (and

depressurization) began. Within four years of CO2 injection, oil production have

increased by 8000 BOPD (Fig. 2-14) and the oil cut have risen from a low of 14% to

31%. CO2 response can clearly be seen on a plot of oil cut versus cumulative oil

production (Fig. 2-15). Within only months of CO2 injection, the oil cut deviates sharply

upward from what would have been expected under continued waterflood conditions,

thus defining EOR response. Several other interesting phenomena accompanied EOR

response in the Continuous Area. First, there appeared to be an areal anisotropy in

production response suggesting an east-west oriented permeability preference. This can

be most clearly seen by comparing the oil response characteristics of Continuous Area

producers relative to their location in the 9-spot pattern. Although each group of wells

does show clear CO2 response, wells located east-west of pattern injectors experience

earlier EOR response. Wells located north-south of CO2 injectors, or diagonally to the

pattern injector, respond more slowly to CO2 injection, yet appeared to sustain their

32

Page 46: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

growth in EOR rate for a longer time. Although each of the locations show response, the

efficiency of their response, as measured by the producing C02/oil ratio, clearly

illustrated that CO2 travels faster to the east/west wells than other locations, suggesting a

permeability anisotropy favoring east/west displacement. Recognition of this "'non-

radial" flood front was important in understanding performance in this and other parts of

the Unit.

2.2.2.2.1 Injector-To-Producer Conversions. Another sign of EOR response, one

unique to CO2 flooding, is the oil response in former water injectors converted to

production. The regularization to 9-spot pattern left as many as one hundred former

water injectors in producer locations in the pattern. In order to minimize areal sweep

efficiency, a number of these ex-injectors were converted to producers at the start of the

CO2 flood. Although these wells have to produce a large water bank ahead of EOR

response, the five original

Q LL O

Q"

CM o o of LU

70

60

50

40

30

20

10 -

4 40

20

00

-80

•'60

-40

-20

83 85 87 89

YEAR 19XX

93

Fig. 2-14. Denver Unit Continuous Area Production Performance History

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

33

Page 47: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

60

50

40

30

20

10

L}'-\y'-R .N • vVAC- ,"0-89/

I'DENVER UNIT WAG" rEST <2/88)

C02 INJECTION (4/84)

1 — I — I — h 1 — I — I — I — I — h 40 160 200 80 120

CUM OIL - (MMBO)

Fig. 2-15 Denver Unit Confinuous Area Oil Cut versus Cumulative Oil Producfion

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

injector-to-producer (I-P) conversions have responded very well, and are currently

producing at rates higher than originally predicted. Because of the success of these initial

I-P wells, others have recently been activated. '°^

2.2.2.2.2 Injection Performance. Injection performance in the Continuous Area has

been quite encouraging. Desired injection rates have been maintained and vertical

distribution of COj, similar to the waterflood, is quite good. The computerized injection

controllers have successfully maintained injection rates at desired levels, while guarding

against injection pressures that will result in fracturing. Fig. 2-16 shows the steady

overall injection performance in the Continuous Area. COj injectivity, while starting at

levels equivalent to pre-C02 water injection, has been risen slowly throughout the CO2

injection cycle. This rising injectivity is consistent with CO2 pilot observations, and is

attributed to the displacement of liquids (oil and water) away from the injectors.

34

Page 48: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

..

B/D

oc 5 ,

O 1 -

o LU Z <N O o oO

cc LU 5 5

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

*iiir : • • \ M

i ' ' ' ' ' '•'•^2''-'

82 T 83

r 84 86 ' 88

87 YEAR, 19xx

Fig. 2-16 Denver Unit Continuous Area Injection History

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

2.2.2.2.3 Gas-Oil Ratio Trend. Another indicator of EOR response in the early years

of the CO2 flood is the rising hydrocarbon gas-oil-ratio (GOR) as the flood has

progressed (Fig 2-17). The producing GOR prior to CO2 flooding was approximately 650

SCF/BO. As CO2 contacts oil in the reservoir, it strips the lighter hydrocarbon

components out of the remaining oil and displaces it towards the producing wells. In

addition, CO2 evaporates more of these components in the surface separators. Therefore,

not only has the hydrocarbon GOR increased, but due to the higher concentrafions of the

valuable liquid components, the gas stream is enriched as well, resulting in higher liquid

recovery.

2.2.2.2.4 COT Production. Upon closer inspecfion of Fig. 2-14, it can be seen that

along with increasing oil rates, CO2 producfion rates rose steadily during the early years

of the CO2 flood. It should be noted that one of the operating constraints of the CO2 flood

35

Page 49: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

has been the limited capacity to process produced CO, through the Denver Unit CO,

Recovery

1400 -

1200

o CO

u. o CO,

cc o o

1000

800

600 o

400 -

200

INITIAL C02 INJECTION

YEAR

Fig. 2-17 Denver Unit Continuous Area Hydrocarbon Gas-Oil-Ratio

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

Plant (DUCRP). The original plant began operafion in 1986 with an inlet capacity of 140

MMCF/D. As gas rates directed to this field facility increased, modifications to the plant

were initiated to provide additional gas processing capacity. This was necessary in order

to prevent curtailed oil production while providing CO2 for recycle injection. Although

the CO2 production rates were only slightly higher than originally predicted, this

produced CO2, coupled with the increased hydrocarbon gas rates, became a consideration

as the gas rates approached plant inlet capacity.

36

Page 50: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

2.2.2.2.5 Flowing Wells. Another impact of the increasing CO2 and gas rates was the

growing number of flowing wells in the Confinuous Area. There are over 125 flowing

wells in the Unit. These flowing wells, often occupying infill or east/west pattern

locafions, presented unique operafional challenges. Due to the formafion of hydrates,

some flowing wells experienced freezing at the wellhead during the night and periods of

cold weather, often remaining frozen for days at a time. Once thawing occurred, the

build-up of near wellbore gas would result in short bursts of extremely high gas rates,

shutting down surface facilifies. Wells that produce adequate volumes of liquids were not

problems, as the liquids tended to displace the hydrates down the flowline. Only a few

wells were quite troublesome to handle. As gas/liquid ratios continued to rise, it was

apparent that either a change in operating policies be made, or these wells be shut in.

2.2.2.3 WACO2 Area EOR Performance

In order to adequately compare the performance of the Continuous and WACO2

Areas, injection rates (on a HCPV basis) were maintained at comparable levels despite

the lower injectivity of the Water-Alternating-Gas (WAG) process. The original injection

plan in the WACO2 Area involved injecting alternating six month slugs of CO, and water

until a cumulafive 40% HCPV slug of CO2 has been injected. Early oil production

response in the WACO2 Area was disappointing. Oil production continued to decline

with only a marginal improvement over waterflooding for a number of years after CO2

injection began (Fig. 2-18). It is important to note that not only was oil rate response not

immediately observed in the WACO2 Area, CO2 producfion rates remained quite low. In

the early WAG injecfion cycles, considerable problems arose in attempfing to maintain

injecfion rates in parity with the Continuous Area. This was particularly challenging on

the water injecfion cycle, where loss of injectivity further reduced injection volumes. In

order to achieve desired water injection rates in the WACO, Area, injecfion pressures

were allowed to exceed fracture extension pressure. Although these high pressures were

allowed only on the water cycle, material balance calculafions suggest that losses of as

37

Page 51: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

much as 25% of the injected fluid resufted from this practice. In order to increase

throughput rates to desired levels without exceeding fracture pressure, a pattern

conversion from the existing 9-spot pattern to a line dri\e pattern was installed in 1988.

This conversion (Fig. 2-19) increased the number of injectors in the WACO2 Area from

33 to 60. By spreading the desired injection volume among more injectors, desired rates

were then attainable without exceeding fracturing pressures. Although about 700 BOPD

were lost due to well conversions, the oil production decline was arrested and oil rates

slowly began rise. Several factors have contributed to the poorer EOR performance in the

WACO2 Area, including: (1) water WAG injecfivity. (2) out-of-zone injecfion losses, (3)

structure continuity, and (4) waterflood induced fractures. While the geological setting

carmot be changed, by converting to the line drive pattern, injecfion can be accomplished

without fracturing. To improve injectivity, WAG cycle lengths have been extended from

every six months to yearly.

2.2.2.4 Denver Unit WAG Development

Although early EOR performance of the Continuous Area was xQvy encouraging, gas

production rates continued to rise steadily. Further, many wells have begun to flow and

severe east/west wells were "'gassing out" and were forced to be shut in. A careful

comparison of the performance of the Denver Unit Continuous and WACO, Areas with

other Wasson Area CO2 flood demonstrated the advantages of both Continuous and

WAG injection. Numerical models were refined based on actual observed CO2 flood

performance in each area of the Denver Unit, then the models were used to investigate

various flood options. Sfimulation studies suggest that the Denver Unit WAG (DUWAG)

injection process, in which four to six years of continuous CO, injection is followed by

1:1 WAG, has advantages over both continuous CO2 and conventional WAG processes.

The DUWAG process combines the early EOR response of continuous injecfion and the

higher ultimate recovery of WAG injection. The WAG portion of the process provides

38

Page 52: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Q

CQ

UJ

OIL

0 j i i i n ! i i i i i | i ! i i M m M | M i i i i i m n i m i i i r m | t T r i i i i i i i H T T T r i m M H i M i i i M i i i 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

Fig. 2-18 Denver Unit WACO2 Area Oil Producfion History

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

6 4

• A A

6 5

A 7 4

A

A

A

A

8 4

A A A 75

A A

A A

A

A A •

66

76

A

A * I. LEGEND

• PRODUCERS

m SHUT-IN WELL

A NtWLY CONVERTCO WACOa INJECTORS

J ^ ORKMNAL »-«M3T WAOOa INJECTOfW

A A A

9 * • • * 8 5 86

Fig. 2-19 Denver Unit WACO2 Area Project Patterns

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

39

Page 53: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

improvement to areal sweep efficiency and the prolonged economic life of the east/west

and infill wells, which would have ''gassed ouf' under continuous flooding. Further

stimulafions predict that a large slug size (60% HCPV) could result in additional EOR

recovery, using existing wells and facilities, without increasing the peak gas production

rates. To test the DUWAG process in the field, four patterns in the heart of the

Continuous Area were converted to this process. These patterns were characterized by

high CO2 injecfivity and high CO2 producing rates, and included several flowing wells.

During this test, water injection rates were successfully attained at pressures below

fracture pressure. Despite the lower injectivity of water, the water injection volumes

were achievable because of the large CO2 slug already in place. On the production side,

within a month of initiating WAG injection in these patterns, CO2 production rates began

to drop, while oil and water production rates remained constant. Implementation of the

Denver Unit WAG process has not only reduced anticipated peak gas rates, but has also

allowed accelerated expansion of the CO2 flood to the Final Injection Area (FIA) by

freeing up CO2 from the IIA. This more rapid expansion provides increased oil

production as these patterns respond to COj.

2.2.2.5 Recent CO2 Flood Performance

The two major components of the DUWAG project were (1) the conversion of the

Continuous Area to this injection process, and (2) the accelerated expansion of the CO2

flood to the FIA. Field installafion of the project began in late 1989.

2.2.2.5.1 Continuous Area. As of October, 1991, 56 patterns (of 94 patterns) in the

Confinuous Area have been switched to WAG injection. Since mid-1991 the DUCRP

has been operafing at maximum capacity. Therefore, as producing gas rates continue to

rise, some Confinuous Area wells have been shut-in pending completion of the plant

expansion in early 1992. Because the predicfion of the follow-up water injectivity is very

important to the success of the project being able to accurately match and predict fluid

injecfivities is of vital importance. Field evidence from the Denver Unit suggests a water

40

Page 54: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

injecfivity reducfion of approximately 30% following the CO2 injecfion cycle. Over the

period of the water injection cycle, the trapped gas was slowly dissolved, resulting in

increased injectivity during the water portion of the WAG cycle.

2.2.2.5.2 WACO, Area. Due to the more encouraging response observed in the

Confinuous Area, a slug of confinuous CO2 was injected into the WACO2 Area. This

work began in mid-1990, and production response has been encouraging. Fig 2-20 and

Fig. 2-21 show the recent injection status and the recent oil production response for the

WACO2 Area. After the continuous CO2 injection was initiated, oil response began to

increase dramatically.

nOBERTB UNIT (TEXACO)

INJECTION STATUS PATTERNS ON INITIAL C02 INJECTION CYCLE

H PATTERNS ON WATER CYCLE OF DUWAO

I.': I PATTERNS ON WATER INJECTION

Fig. 2-20 Recent Injecfion Status (From C.S. Tanner et al, 1992, SPE 24156)

2.2.2.5.3 Final Injection Area. Expansion of the CO2 flood to the FIA has progressed

rapidly. Since the DUWAG project was approved in late 1989, 92 new FIA patterns have

begun CO2 injecfion. By the end of 1991, patterns including 91% of the Denver Unit oil

column OOIP were under CO2 injection. The only patterns yet to begin COj injecfion are

41

Page 55: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Q Q. O CD

YEAR

Fig. 2-21 Recent Oil Producfion Response for the WACO2 Area.

(From C.S. Tanner et al., 1992, SPE 24156)

a few patterns in the center of the unit (due to special considerations in equipping CO2

injection wells within city limit), and patterns associated with leaseline areas, which are

planned to be developed with offset operators. Early indication of EOR production

response have been encouraging in the FIA. Several of the more mature FIA CO2

injection patterns have been switched to DUWAG injection in an effort to reduce gas

production rates.

2.3 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Pumping Failures

Denver Unit sucker rod pumping wells are the biggest group among those in Wasson

field and in Shell producfion units. Active pumping well numbers and failures of pump,

rod and tubing in years of 1992 through 1996 are listed in Table 2-2. To make the failure

data more reasonable to compare, failure frequencies were calculated, which are listed in

Table 2-3. Fig2-22 is the failure frequency graph which looks more straightforward. From

Fig. 2-22, it can be seen that the failure frequencies decrease year by year. This may be

the result of (1) better and better operations in the field, (2) better and better facilities and

equipment, (3) better working condifions of pump, rod and tubing due to better flow

42

Page 56: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 2-2 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Pumping Failures

Years

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Active Well Numbers

539 544 554 590 591

Pump Failures

349 207 162 191 134

Rod Failures

176 108 84 145 127

Tubing Failures

137 90 70 68 66

Total Failures

758 442 366 439 350

Table 2-3 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequency

Years

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Active Well Numbers

539 544 554 590 591

Pump Failures 0.64750 0.38051 0.29242 0.32373 0.22673

Rod Failures 0.32653 0.19853 0.15162 0.24576 0.21489

Tubing Failures 0.25417 0.16544 0.12635 0.11525 0.11168

Total Failures 1.40631 0.81250 0.66065 0.74407 0.59222

1992 1993 1994

YEAR

1995 1996

Fig. 2-22 Denver Unit Sucker Rod Failure Frequencies

43

Page 57: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

properties of the produced fluids, and so on. To understand this graph more work have to

be done in the future.

2.4 Summary

The following is a brief summary to Chapter 2.

• Denver Unit, formed in 1964, is the largest in Wasson field and in Permian Basin

Units of Shell Company.

• Denver Unit mainly produces oil from the San Andres formafion, which is 4700 to

7300 ft. deep, averaging 5200 ft. Production portion of San Andres formation has

been subdivided into First Porosity and Main Pay with the latter possessing the most

favorable reservoirs and porosity development.

• Water flood began in 1964, water flood resulted in a peak production of 150,000

BOPD in 1975. Water injection evolved from peripheral injection to inverted nine-

spot arrangement. The predicted oil production with water flood fell down

dramatically in the mid-1980s.

• CO2 injection project in Denver Unit is the largest in the world, which began in the

mid-1984. CO2 flood covered Initial Injection Area (including Continuous Area and

Water-Alternating-C02 Area) and Final Injection Area. In the IIA area, the Denver

Unit Water-Alternating-Gas injection process (which is a line drive pattern), in which

four to six years of continuous CO2 injecfion is followed by 1:1 WAG, has the

advantages over both continuous CO2 and conventional WAG processes. In the FIA

area, expansion of CO2 flood has progressed steadily, and more and more mature FIA

CO2 injection patterns have been switched to DUWAG injection in an effort to reduce

gas production rates.

• Seven-in. casing has higher lift efficiency. During the 1980s, the beam pumping units

were mainly API 640's and 456's. The average run time between failures was

approximately 15 months with a range of 2 to 20 months. In recent years, sucker rod

pumping failures have decreased gradually.

44

Page 58: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

CHAPTER 3

DATA FROM COMPANIES

At the moment, ALEOC has got data from 11 companies. ' ' Some of the data can be

used direcfly, while others can not. Owing to different management modes among the oil

companies, the data provided are in very different formats. Some companies provided

databases in Access files, others in Excel files. One company presented a database in

Access format as big as 30.1MB which included various data from 1983 to 1996. First

the data have to be organized according to units, fields and formations.

3.1 Pretreatment of Primary Databases

To make the data be comparable, all the data should be in the same form. In this

thesis, all the data have been organized in Excel file form.

3.1.1 From Access File to Excel File

Microsoft Access for Windows 95 is a powerful data management program that can

be used for sorting, organizing, and reporting the information which is needed every day.

For the research project, the databases have to be sorted first according the failure types

(in one or several columns). Usually the failures are the first selected data column, the

second selected column would be the date (year, month and day), sometimes location

column is selected as the third sorting column. For big databases, this sorting is time-

consuming. After sorting the Access databases, we have to output the useful data to

Excel files, which will be used to count the failure numbers in a unit, a company, or an oil

field.

3.1.2 Data Sorting

With the directly provided or generated Excel files, data will be sorted according to

years and units. The numbers of failures of pump (including pump failures and pump

45

Page 59: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

changes), rods (including polished rod, rod body, couplings, rod guide, fiberglass rod,

sinker bar, rod rotator), tubing (including tubing body and tubing rotator), and others can

be calculated.

3.1.3 Pretreated Data

The pretreated failure data are listed below in Table 3-1 through Table 3-11. From

the tables it can be seen that it is very difficult to get all the necessary data needed to do

some comparisons and to do further research. Few companies provide information on

equipment manufacturers and facility working conditions. Some companies provided

databases which can not be used at all. There are a lot of confusions with the use of

designations and nomenclatures. The data have to be clarified to determine whether they

belong to a formation, a unit, or a location.

3.2 Failure Frequencies

To make the sorted data comparable among all the companies and to find some

regularities of the failure data, it would be more reasonable to prescribe a standard of

failure comparison. Here the failure frequency has been used as the standard to do

analysis. The failure frequencies of pump, rod, and tubing are calculated by dividing the

failure numbers by active well numbers. The failure frequencies for companies are listed

below.

46

Page 60: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-1 Company A Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub A Permain

TOTAL

Odessa Holt/GB/SA

Odessa Deep(>6000)

Midland Spraberry

Andrews Clearfork

Wasson San Andres

Lea Co. NM Deep WF started in 1993

Year 1990

1991 1992 1993

1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

#wells 641

640 642 700

692 706

154 154 147 144 142 144 19 19 17 18 17 17 52 53 62 71 72 73 27 25 27 27 27 29 339 339 339 326 320 . 319 50 50 50 114 114 124

Pump 172

287 245 268

271 211

39 51 29 32 28 32 1 6 1 0 2 2 31 48 48 65 55 30 9 12 17 23 11 11 68 98 64 52 48 35 9 18 22 17 81 68

Rod 105

226 112 123

263 207

35 52 49 56 62 32 3 4 1 0 3 2 17 27 19 25 51 29 2 16 0 2 3 5

31 44 24 20 13 13 5 15 14 8

91 100

Tubing 64

182 117 104

133 131

17 35 38 35 33 9 1 2 2 0 2 2 11 20 34 36 36 40 0

21 0 1 1 1

31 20 14 20 19 16 7 4 6 5

23 37

Total 341

695 474 495

667 548

91 139 116 122 124 72 5 12 4 0 7 6 59 95 101 126 142 99 11 49 17 26 15 17

129 163 102 91 80 64 21 37 42 30 195 206

47

Page 61: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-2 Company B Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub

B TOTAL

MSAU-ANDREWS San Andres

Fullerton - Andrews Clearfork

Robertson - Seminole Clearfork

Cornell - Denver City Wasson Clearfork

Cordona Lake - Crane

Sandhills - Crane Tubb-McKnight

Judkins

Spraberry - Midland

West Levelland -Whiteface

San Andres

Monahans

Spraberry - Forsan

Year

1992 1993

1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995

1996 YTD

#wells

3964

2080 2070 2017 527 526 517 514 522 535 525 532 167 166 174 172 65 62 62 63 44 45 45 42 142 159 172 179 196 191 180 175 181 175 171 171 127 122 116 99 109 89 55 56

Pump

869

436 489 247 125 83 58 23 116 78 55 29 36 50 35 37 8 19 6 6 9 15 17 6 50 37 32 14 30 24 85 28 28 29 18 14 58 37 44 5 8 2 18 17

Rod

525

336 368 130 59 53 26 18 55 162 138 89 36 36 29 2 15 14 30 7 5 12 7 4 17 15 9 2 10 18 25 12 11 16 10 4 32 27 16 5 7 0 15 4

Tubing

612

291 296 148 108 84 58 32 163 57 36 30 24 22 37 22 9 12 12 3 9 6 4 0

41 36 17 6 5

27 35 28 9 18 16 5 13 15 7 9 8 7 17 7

Total

2006

1062 1154 525 292 220 142 73

334 297 229 148 96 108 101 61 32 45 48 16 23 33 28 10

108 88 58 22 45 69 145 68 48 63 44 23 103 79 67 19 23 9 50 28 1

48

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Table 3-3 Company C Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub c

TOTAL

Levelland Slaughter SanAndres

New Mexico Lea Co Abo Deep

Seminole Wasson San Andres Clear Fork

Sundown Levelland Slaughter

Russell Clearfork Wasson Denver City

Dollarhide Devonian Andrews

Salt Creek Snyder Canyon Reef Kent/Scurry

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD

#wells

1304 1243 1122

357 344 336

130 132 132

122 120 120

446 443 338

134 138 147

81 36 20

34 30 29

Pump

400 322 375

49 51 48

34 33 24 0

43 47 45

112 68 75

34 49 49

48 10 8

10 7

20

Rod

311 192 237

27 15 23

26 12 21 0

37 35 55

35 53 33

49 29 69

33 8 3

8 3 3

Tubing

202 143 87

22 16 39

11 9 9 0

13 12 8

88 48 12

28 26 21

20 7 1

6 3-1

Total

912 657 699

98 82 109

71 54 55 0

93 94 108

235 169 120

111 104 140

101 25 12

24 13 24

49

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Table 3-4 Company D Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub D

TOTAL

CEDAR CREEK

NEW MEXICO

DENVER

WASSON

ANDREWS

TXL

MONAHANS

McCAMEY

LEVELLAND

Year

1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993 1994

1995 1996 1992

1993 1994

1995 1996

1992

1993 1994 1995

1996 1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1992

1993 1994

1995 1996

1992

1993 1994

1995 1996 1992

1993 1994

1995

1996 1992

1993 1994

1995

1996

1992

1993 1994

1995

1996

#wells

2283

2218 2241

2234

2052 424 424 420

303 289 267 257 242 539 544 554 590 591 523 516 508 516 517 169 150 172 142 172 214 190 202 202

133 128 140 139 137 46 46 47 47 47 355 355 350 353 342

Pump

1201 744 592 533 369 138 129 92

84 52 67 33 36 349 207 162 191 134 293 225 133 117 83 113 74 68 60 45 169 68 48 51

91 61 57 40 39 9 6 23 9 9 93 51 34 32 23

Rod

873 613 377 417 354 371 329 314

54 36 20 25 25 176 108 84 145 127 206 203 100 89 95 102 74 54 32 36 103 57 35 41

96 35 26 17 26 9 5 11 1 2 127 96 51 67 43

Tubing

433 426 349 307 261 62 67 65

22 31 20 18 43 137 90 70 68 66 109 129 110 78 72 51 66 68 32 21 28 25 28 44

35 29 18 32 32 8 3 10 1 3 43 53 25 34 24

Total

2846 1991

1532

1369 1034

627 570 503

187 138 112 83 104 758 442 366 439 350 664 608 375 316 270 307 242 211 136 106 311 163 123 142

272 145 120 99 98 30 15 49 11 15 318 239 176 143 91

50

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Table 3-5 Company E Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub E

TOTAL

KERMIT

LAMESA

SUNDOWN

SANDHILL

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

#wells

591 557

84 68

251 244

256 245

Pump

141 168

34 90

45 22

62 56

Rod

160 190

26 48

30 34

104 108

Tubing

118 126

46 48

43 43

29 35

TOTAL

419 484

106 186

118 99

195 199

51

Page 65: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-6 Company F Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub

F

TOTAL

GOLDSMITH

NORTH WARD ESTES

MCELROY

WESTBROOK LATAN

EMSU/EMSUB/AGU

SUNDOWN

EUNICE

HOBBS

CRANE ASSET TEAM

FORT STOCKTON

Year

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990 1991

1992 1993

1994

1995 1996

1990

1991

1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1990

1991

1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993

1994

1995 1996 1990 1991

1992 1993 1994

1995 1996 1990

1991 1992

1993 1994 1995

1996

1990 1991

1992 1993 1994 1995

1996 1990

1991

1992 1993 1994 1995

1996

1992

1993 1994

1995

1996

1992 1993 1994

1995

1996

dwells

4164 3837

3672

3618

3650

593 534 518 502 506

1031 926 901 879 899

828 700 647 618 599

440 415 398 384 359

256 255 239 248 258

60 64 64 65 65

207 200 175 203 252

244 237 220 218 223 338 337 345 353 357

167 169 165 148 132

Pump

1429 1077

890 846 838

257 170 125 127 130

380 313 261 237 229

260 176 123 96 86

62 39 32 73 40

162 116 88 94 76

52 25 26 21 22

92 82 89 86 135

43 32 33 29 43 47 77 66 49 60

74 47 47 34 17

Rod

986 784 638 657 606

243 167 139 103 118

247 169 158 150 142

219 172 140 140 79

36 32 17 40 18

98 81 47 98 89

22 27 24 19 27

62 59 48 38 55

9 8 5 8 16 30 50 41 38 41

20 19 19 23 21

Tubing

782 809 751 710 660

162 185 160 143 153

113 118 90 94 94

257 266 258 223 213

84 70 57 76 48

49 61 54 73 59

15 7 10 9 7

43 39 39 26 37

3 10 21 17 14 38 34 54 38 26

18 19 8 11 9

TOTAL

3197

2670

2279

2213 2102

662 522 424 373 401

740 600 509 481 465

736 614 521 459 378

182 141 106 189 106

309 258 189 265 224

89 59 60 49 54

197 180 176 150 227

55 50 59 54 73 115 161 161 125 127

112 85 74 68 47

52

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Table 3-7 Company G Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub G

TOTAL

BIG SPRING

HOBBS

LEVELLAND

ODESSA

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells

5737

Pump 1374 1012 909

977 943 618 127

331 216 220 269 279 214 28

238 203 148 193 144 74 12

348 254 220 247 287 235 74

368 273 249 182 155 50 5

Rod 1110 879 796

810 777 461 122

272 197 192 261 261 137 29

177 151 122 139 122 49 11

354 279 249 263 278 207 69

229 193 152 88 68 19 5

Tubing 1167 971 942

901 723 440 91

302 197 245 262 169 121 16

171 157 132 187 203 31 13

299 281 209 323 305 354 105

348 262 268 177 83 45 5

TOTAL 4742 4257 3553

3962 3634 2545 630

1140 768 838 1101 1111 806 143

723 943 617 803 664 228 67

1296 1202 894 1099 1097 1142 323

1309 1115 945 667 521 190 60

53

Page 67: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-8 Company H Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in 1 Area/Sub H

TOTAL

ODESSA

ANDREWS

DAGGER DRAW

MCA/MALJAMAR

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells

1724 1724 1724 1724 2023

188 188 188 188 182

112 112 112 112 111

47 47 47 47 48

210 210 210 210 172

Pump 217 231 275 276 219 233 249

47 35 53 18 19

34 37 13 17 9

8 8 8

26 12

34 24 12 16 13

Rod 395 292 285 284 217 238 215

42 37 57 33 23

58 89 40 43 9

3 14 23 38 30

5 4 4 6 6

.he Permian Basin Tubing

224 243 233 214 208 326 349

27 54 52 18 17

48 56 26 44 13

4 3 6 3 2

17 6 10 17 13

TOTAL 1049 948 793 774 656 797 813

106 90 162 105 69

140 182 79 104 31

15 25 49 67 44

56 34 26 39 32

54

Page 68: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Area/Sub

ORLA

SOUTH HUNTLEY

E. HUNTLEY/H.L. DAVIES

FORSAN

HOBBS (NORTH & SOUTH)

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Table 3-8 (Continued) #wells

126 126 126 126 115

34 34 34 34 36

38 38 38 38 36

459 459 459 459 379

510 510 510 510 411

Pump

15 11 14 12 7

9 1

10 10 14

4 1 2 8 14

72 95 60 48 28

52 64 47 78 46

Rod

13 6 7 12 2

4 3 4 19 28

2 1 2 0 6

132 105 62 58 44

26 25 18 29 55

Tubing

6 2 6 12 3

1 1 0 1 2

1 1 1 2 1

97 93 77 136 101

42 34 30 57 46

TOTAL

34 19 27 36 12

14 5 14 30 44

7 3 5 10 21

301 293 199 242 173

120 123 95 164 147

55

Page 69: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Area/Sub

CHITTIM

1

Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Table 3-8 (Continued) #wells

533

Pump

87

Rod

12

Tubing

141

TOTAL

240

56

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Table 3-9 Company I Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub 1

TOTAL

ANDREWS

BIG SPRING

CRANE

HOBBS

KERMIT

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

#weils Pump

1 236 274 190

54 31 29

28 16 10

48 81 28

1 89 79 76

13 61 47

Rod

139 160 146

43 33 43

32 29 12

40 44 32

13 26 28

10 29 31

Tubing

2 164 162 106

15 23 21

92 70 23

39 35 30

1 12 14 13

6 19 19

TOTAL

57

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Table 3-10 Company J Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub J

TOTAL

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells Pump Rod Tubing TOTAL

Table 3-11 Company K Sucker Rod Pumping Failures in the Permian Basin Area/Sub K

TOTAL

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells

185 177

194 319 332

Pump

72 73

74 161 107

Rod

112 75

69 196 208

Tubing

35 48

46 71 107

TOTAL

219 196

189 428 422

58

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Table 3-12 Company A Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub A Permain

TOTAL

Odessa Holt/GB/SA

Odessa Deep (>6000)

Midland Spraberry

Andrews Clearfork

Wasson San Andres

Lea Co. NM Deep W F started in 1993

Year 1990

1991 1992 1993

1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

#wells 641

640 642 700

692 706

154 154 147 144 142 144 19

19 17 18 17 17 52 53 62 71 72 73 27 25 27 27 27 29 339 339 339 326 320 319 50 50 50 114 114 124

Pump 0.2683

0.4483 0.3817 0.3833

0.3917 0.2983

0.2500 0.3300 0.2000 0.2200 0.2000 0.2200 0.0500

0.3200 0.0600 0.0000 0.1200 0.1200 0.6000 0.9100 0.7700 0.9200 0.7600 0.4100 0.3300 0.4800 0.6300 0.8500 0.4100 0.3800 0.2000 0.2900 0.1900 0.1600 0.1500 0.1100 0.1800 0.3600 0.4400 0.1500 0.7100 0.5500

Rod 0.1633

0.3533 0.1750 0.1750

0.3800 0.2933

0.2300 0.3400 0.3300 0.3900 0.4400 0.2200 0.1600

0.2100 0.0600 0.1100 0.1800 0.1200 0.3300 0.5100 0.3100 0.3500 0.7100 0.4000 0.0700 0.6300 0.0000 0.0700 0.1100 0.1700 0.0900 0.1300 0.0700 0.0600 0.0400 0.0400 0.1000 0.3000 0.2800 0.0700 0.8000 0.8100

Tubing 0.1000

0.2850 0.1817 0.1483

0.1917 0.1850

0.1100 0.2300 0.2600 0.2400 0.2300 0.0600 0.0500

0.1100 0.1200 0.0000 0.1200 0.1200 0.2100 0.3800 0.5500 0.5100 0.5000 0.5500 0.0000 0.8500 0.0000 0.0400 0.0400 0.0300 0.0900 0.0600 0.0400 0.0600 0.0600 0.0500 0.1400 0.0800 0.1200 0.0400 0.2000 0.3000

Total 0.5317

1.0867 0.7383 0.7067

0.9633 0.7767

0.5900 0.9000 0.7900 0.8500 0.8700 0.5000 0.2600

0.6400 0.2400 0.1100 0.4200 0.3600 1.1400 1.8000 1.6300 1.7800 1.9700 1.3600 0.4000 1.9600 0.6300 0.9600 0.5600 0.5800 0.3800 0.4800 0.3000 0.2800 0.2500 0.2000 0.4200 0.7400 0.8400 0.2600 1.7100 1.6600

59

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Table 3-13 Company B Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub

B

TOTAL

MSAU-ANDREWS

San Andres

Fullerton - Andrews

Clearfork

Robertson - Seminole

Clearfork

Cornell - Denver City

Wasson Clearfork

Cordona Lake - Crane

Sandhills - Crane

Tubb-McKnight

Judkins

Spraberry - Midland

West Levelland -

Whiteface

San Andres

Monahans

Spraberry - Forsan

Year

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

1993

1994

1995

1996 YTD

#wells

3964

2080

2070

2017

527

526

517

514

522

535

525

532

167

166

174

172

65

62

62

63

44

45

45

42

142

159

172

179

196

191

180

175

181

175

171

171

127

122

116

99

109

89

55

56

Pump

0.2193

0.2094

0.2363

0.1227

0.2372

0.1578

0.1122

0.0447

0.2222

0.1458

0.1048

0.0545

0.2156

0.3012

0.2011

0.2151

0.1231

0.3065

0.0968

0.0952

0.2045

0.3333

0.3778

0.1429

0.3521

0.2327

0.1860

0.0782

0.1531

0.1257

0.4722

0.1600

0.1547

0.1657

0.1053

0.0819

0.4567

0.3033

0.3793

0.0505

0.0734

0.0225

0.3273

0.3036

Rod

0.1325

0.1614

0.1780

0.0645

0.1120

0.1008

0.0503

0.0350

0.1054

0.3028

0.2629

0.1673

0.2156

0.2169

0.1667

0.0116

0.2308

0.2258

0.4839

0.1111

0.1136

0.2667

0.1556

0.0952

0.1197

0.0943

0.0523

0.0112

0.0510

0.0942

0.1389

0.0686

0.0608

0.0914

0.0585

0.0234

0.2520

0.2213

0.1379

0.0505

0.0642

0.0000

0.2727

0.0714

Tubing

0.1544

0.1398

0.1432

0.0733

0.2049

0.1597

0.1122

0.0623

0.3123

0.1065

0.0686

0.0564

0.1437

0.1325

0.2126

0.1279

0.1385

0.1935

0.1935

0.0476

0.2045

0.1333

0.0889

0.0000

0.2887

0.2264

0.0988

0.0335

0.0255

0.1414

0.1944

0.1600

0.0497

0.1029

0.0936

0.0292

0.1024

0.1230

0.0603

0.0909

0.0734

0.0787

0.3091

0.1250

Total

0.5061

0.5107

0.5574

0.2605

0.5541

0.4183

0.2747

0.1420

0.6398

0.5551

0.4362

0.2782

0.5749

0.6506

0.5805

0.3547

0.4923

0.7258

0.7742

0.2540

0.5227

0.7333

0.6222

0.2381

0.7606

0.5535

0.3372

0.1229

0.2296

0.3613

0.8056

0.3886

0.2652

0.3600

0.2573

0.1345

0.8110

0.6475

0.5776

0.1919

0.2110

0.1011

0.9091

0.5000

60

Page 74: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-14 Company C Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub c

TOTAL

Levelland Slaughter SanAndres

New Mexico Lea Co Abo Deep

Seminole Wasson San Andres Clear Fork

Sundown Levelland Slaughter

Russell Clearfork Wasson Denver City

Dollarhide Devonian Andrews

Salt Creek Snyder Canyon Reef Kent/Scurry

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD 1993 1994 1995 1996 YTD

#wells

1304 1243 1122

357 344 336

130 132 132

122 120 120

446 443 338

134 138 147

81 36 20

34 30 29

Pump

0.3065 0.2589 0.3345

0.1372 0.1482 0.1427

0.2615 0.2510 0.1818

0.3529 0.3930 0.3778

0.2511 0.1534 0.2207

0.2537 0.3540 0.3356

0.5926 0.2778 0.3934

0.2963 0.2353 0.6897

Rod

0.2383 0.1542 0.2111

0.0756 0.0436 0.0674

0.2000 0.0913 0.1616

0.3037 0.2927 0.4556

0.0785 0.1195 0.0985

0.3657 0.2095 0.4717

0.4074 0.2222 0.1311

0.2370 0.1008 0.0920

Tubing

0.1548 0.1152 0.0778

0.0616 0.0465 0.1150

0.0846 0.0684 0.0707

0.1067 0.1003 0.0667

0.1973 0.1083 0.0355

0.2090 0.1878 0.1451

0.2469 0.1944 0.0656

0.1778 0.1008 0.0460

Total

0.6996 0.5284 0.6234

0.2744 0.2383 0.3251

0.5462 0.4106 0.4141

0.7633 0.7861 0.9000

0.5269 0.3811 0.3547

0.8284 0.7514 0.9524

1.2469 0.6944 0.5902

0.7111 0.4370 0.8276

61

Page 75: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-15 Company D Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub D

TOTAL

CEDAR CREEK

NEW MEXICO

DENVER

WASSON

ANDREWS

TXL

MONAHANS

McCAMEY

LEVELLAND

Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

#wells 2283 2218 2241 2234 2052 424 424 420

303 289 267 257 242 539 544 554 590 591 523 516 508 516 517 169 150 172 142 172 214 190 202 202

133 128 140 139 137 46 46 47 47 47 355 355 350 353 342

Pump 0.5261 0.3354 0.2642 0.2386 0.1798 0.3255 0.3042 0.2190

0.2772 0.1799 0.2509 0.1284 0.1488 0.6475 0.3805 0.2924 0.3237 0.2267 0.5602 0.4360 0.2618 0.2267 0.1605 0.6686 0.4933 0.3953 0.4225 0.2616 0.7897 0.3579 0.2376 0.2525

0.6842 0.4766 0.4071 0.2878 0.2847 0.1957 0.1304 0.4894 0.1915 0.1915 0.2620 0.1437 0.0971 0.0907 0.0673

Rod 0.3824 0.2764 0.1682 0.1867 0.1725 0.8750 0.7759 0.7476

0.1782 0.1246 0.0749 0.0973 0.1033 0.3265 0.1985 0.1516 0.2458 0.2149 0.3939 0.3934 0.1969 0.1725 0.1838 0.6036 0.4933 0.3140 0.2254 0.2093 0.4813 0.3000 0.1733 0.2030

0.7218 0.2734 0.1857 0.1223 0.1898 0.1957 0.1087 0.2340 0.0213 0.0426 0.3577 0.2704 0.1457 0.1898 0.1257

Tubinq 0.1897 0.1921 0.1557 0.1374 0.1272 0.1462 0.1580 0.1548

0.0726 0.1073 0.0749 0.0700 0.1777 0.2542 0.1654 0.1264 0.1153 0.1117 0.2084 0.2500 0.2165 0.1512 0.1393 0.3018 0.4400 0.3953 0.2254 0.1221 0.1308 0.1316 0.1386 0.2178

0.2632 0.2266 0.1286 0.2302 0.2336 0.1739 0.0652 0.2128 0.0213 0.0638 0.1211 0.1493 0.0714 0.0963 0.0702

TOTAL 1.2466 0.8977 0.6836 0.6128 0.5039 1.4788 1.3443 1.1976

0.6172 0.4775 0.4195 0.3230 0.4298 1.4063 0.8125 0.6606 0.7441 0.5922 1.2696 1.1783 0.7382 0.6124 0.5222 1.8166 1.6133 1.2267 0.9577 0.6163 1.4533 0.8579 0.6089 0.7030

2.0451 1.1328 0.8571 0.7122 0.7153 0.6522 0.3261 1.0426 0.2340 0.3191 0.8958 0.6732 0.5029 0.4051 0.2661

62

Page 76: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-16 Company E Sucker Rod Frequencies in the Permian

Pumping Failure Basin

Area/Sub E

TOTAL

KERMIT

LAMESA

SUNDOWN

SANDHILL

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

#wells

591 557

84 68

251 244

256 245

Pump

0.2385 0.3016

0.4036 1.3220

0.1795 0.0902

0.2420 0.2287

Rod

0.2706 0.3411

0.3086 0.7051

0.1196 0.1393

0.4059 0.4410

Tubing

0.1996 0.2262

0.5460 0.7051

0.1715 0.1762

0.1132 0.1429

TOTAL

0.7087 0.8690

1.2582 2.7321

0.4706 0.4057

0.7611 0.8126

63

Page 77: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3- 17 Company F in

Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies the Permian Basin

Area/Sub

F

TOTAL

GOLDSMITH

NORTH WARD ESTES

MCELROY

WESTBROOK UVTAN

EMSU/EMSUB/AGU

SUNDOWN

EUNICE

HOBBS

CRANE ASSET TEAM

FORT STOCKTON

Year

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

#wells

4164

3837

3672

3618

3650

593

534

518

502

506

1031

926

901

879

899

828

700

647

618

599

440

415

398

384

359

256

255

239

248

258

60

64

64

65

65

207

200

175

203

252

244

237

220

218

223

338

337

345

353

357

167

169

165

148

132

Pump

0 3432

02807

0.2424

0.2338

02296

0 4334

0 3184

02413

0 2530

02569

03686

0.3380

02897

0.2696

0.2547

0,3140

0.2514

0 1901

0 1553

0 1436

0 1409

0 0940

0 0804

0 1901

0 1114

0 5328

0 4549

0 3682

0 3790

0 2946

0 8667

0 3906

0 4063

0 3231

0 3385

0 4444

0 4100

0 5086

0 4236

05357

0 1762

0 1350

0 1500

0 1330

0 1928

0.1391

0 2285

0 1913

0 1388

0 1681

0 4431

02781

0 2848

02297

0 1288

Rod

0 2368

0 2043

07169

01816

0.1660

0 4098

0 3127

0 2683

0 2052

0 2332

0 2396

0,1825

0,1754

0 1706

0 1580

0 2645

0 2457

0 2164

0 2265

01319

0 0818

0 0771

0 0427

0 1042

0 0501

0 3828

0 3176

0 1967

0 3952

0 3450

C 365^

0 42^9

C 3^50

: 2923 9 4154

J 2 995

0 295C

0 2-43

0 1872

0 2183

0 0369

0 0338

0 0227

0 0367

0 0717

00888

0 1484

0 1188

0 1076

0 1148

0 1198

0 1124

0 1152

0 1554

0,1591

Tubing

0,1878

0 2108

1 1771

0 1962

0 1808

0 2732

0 3464

0 3089

0 2849

0 3024

0 1096

0 1274

0 0999

0 1069

0 1046

0 3104

0.3800

0 3988

0,3608

0,3556

0,1909

0 1687

0.1432

0 1979

0 1337

0 1914

0 2392

0 2259

0 2944

0 2287

0 2500

0 1094

0 1563

0 1385 0 1077

0 2077

0 1950

0 2229

0 1231

0 1468

0 0123

3 0422

0 0955

0 0780

0 0628

0 1124

0 1009

0 1565

0 1076

00728

0,1078

0,1124

00485

00743

0,0682

TOTAL

0,7678

0 69S9

3 0346

06117

0 5759

1 1164

0 9775

0 8185

0 7430

0 7925

0 7177

0 6479

0 5649

: 5472

0 51-2

0 8889

0 8771

0 8053

0 7427

06311

0 4136

0 3398

0 2663

0 4922

0 2953

1 2070

1 0118

0 7908

1 0685

0 8682

1 4833

0 9219

0 9375

0 7538

0 8308

0 9517

0 9000

1 0057

0 7389

0 9008

0 2254

0 2110

: 2582 : 2 4 —

C 22-4

0 3402

0 4777

0 4667

0 3541

0 3557

0 6707

0,5030

04485

0 4595

0 3561

64

Page 78: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-18 Company G Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub G

TOTAL

BIG SPRING

HOBBS

LEVELLAND

ODESSA

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells

5737

Pump 0.2395 0.1764 0.1584

0.1703 0.1644 0.1077 0.0221

0.0577 0.0377 0.0383 0.0469 0.0486 0.0373 0.0049

0.0415 0.0354 0.0258 0.0336 0.0251 0.0129 0.0021

0.0607 0.0443 0.0383 0.0431 0.0500 0.0410 0.0129

0.0641 0.0476 0.0434 0.0317 0.0270 0.0087 0.0009

Rod 0.1935 0.1532 0.1387

0.1412 0.1354 0.0804 0.0213

0.0474 0.0343 0.0335 0.0455 0.0455 0.0239 0.0051

0.0309 0.0263 0.0213 0.0242 0.0213 0.0085 0.0019

0.0617 0.0486 0.0434 0.0458 0.0485 0.0361 0.0120

0.0399 0.0336 0.0265 0.0153 0.0119 0.0033 0.0009

Tubing 0.2034 0.1693 0.1642

0.1571 0.1260 0.0767 0.0159

0.0526 0.0343 0.0427 0.0457 0.0295 0.0211 0.0028

0.0298 0.0274 0.0230 0.0326 0.0354 0.0054 0.0023

0.0521 0.0490 0.0364 0.0563 0.0532 0.0617 0.0183

0.0607 0.0457 0.0467 0.0309 0.0145 0.0078 0.0009

TOTAL 0.8266 0.7420 0.6193

0.6906 0.6334 0.4436 0.1098

0.1987 0.1339 0.1461 0.1919 0.1937 0.1405 0.0249

0.1260 0.1644 0.1075 0.1400 0.1157 0.0397 0.0117

0.2259 0.2095 0.1558 0.1916 0.1912 0.1991 0.0563

0.2282 0.1944 0.1647 0.1163 0.0908 0.0331 0.0105

1

65

Page 79: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-19 Company H Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub H

TOTAL

ODESSA

ANDREWS

DAGGER DRAW

MCA/MALJAMAR

ORLA

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993

#wells

1724 1724 1724 1724 2023

188 188 188 188 182

112 112 112 112 111

47 47 47 47 48

210 210 210 210 172

126 126

Pump

0.1595

0.1601 0.1270 0.1352 0.1231

0.2500 0.1862 0.2819 0.0957 0.1044

0.3036 0.3304 0.1161 0.1518 0.0811

0.1702 0.1702 0.1702 0.5532 0.2500

0.1619 0.1143 0.0571 0.0762 0.0756

0.1190 0.0873

Rod

0.1653

0.1647 0.1259 0.1381 0.1063

0.2234 0.1968 0.3032 0.1755 0.1264

0.5179 0.7946 0.3571 0.3839 0.0811

0.0638 0.2979 0.4894 0.8085 0.6250

0.0238 0.0190 0.0190 0.0286 0.0349

0.1032 0.0476

Tubing

0.1352

0.1241 0.1206 0.1891 0.1725

0.1436 0.2872 0.2766 0.0957 0.0934

0.4286 0.5000 0.2321 0.3929 0.1171

0.0851 0.0638 0.1277 0.0638 0.0417

0.0810 0.0286 0.0476 0.0810 0.0756

0.0476 0.0159

TOTAL

0.4600

0.4490 0.3805 0.4623 0.4019

0.5638 0.4787 0.8617 0.5585 0.3791

1.2500 1.6250 0.7054 0.9286 0.2793

0.3191 0.5319 1.0426 1.4255 0.9167

0.2667 0.1619 0.1238 0.1857 0.1860

0.2698 0.1508

66

Page 80: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Area/Sub

ORLA

SOUTH HUNTLEY

E. HUNTLEY/H.L. DAVIES

FORSAN

HOBBS (NORTH & SOUTH)

CHITTIM

Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

Table 3-19 (Continued) #wells

126 126 115

34 34 34 34 36

38 38 38 38 36

459 459 459 459 379

510 510 510 510 411

533

Pump 0.1111 0.0952 0.0609

0.2647 0.0294 0.2941 0.2941 0.3889

0.1053 0.0263 0.0526 0.2105 0.3889

0.1569 0.2070 0.1307 0.1046 0.0739

0.1020 0.1255 0.0922 0.1529 0.1119

0.1632

Rod 0.0556 0.0952 0.0174

0.1176 0.0882 0.1176 0.5588 0.7778

0.0526 0.0263 0.0526 0.0000 0.1667

0.2876 0.2288 0.1351 0.1264 0.1161

0.0510 0.0490 0.0353 0.0569 0.1338

0.0225

Tubing 0.0476 0.0952 0.0261

0.0294 0.0294 0.0000 0.0294 0.0556

0.0263 0.0263 0.0263 0.0526 0.0278

0.2113 0.2026 0.1678 0.2963 0.2665

0.0824 0.0667 0.0588 0.1118 0.1119

0.2645

TOTAL 0.2143 0.2857 0.1043

0.4118 0.1471 0.4118 0.8824 1.2222

0.1842 0.0789 0.1316 0.2632 0.5833

0.6558 0.6383 0.4336 0.5272 0.4565

0.2353 0.2412 0.1863 0.3216 0.3577

0.4503

67

Page 81: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-20 Company I Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub 1

TOTAL

ANDREWS

BIG SPRING

CRANE

HOBBS

KERMIT

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

#wells Pump Rod Tubing

i

i !

TOTAL

i

1

* Need well numbers for I company.

68

Page 82: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-21 Company J Sucker Rod Pumping Failure

Area/Sub J

TOTAL

Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells Pump Rod Tubing TOTAL

* Need well numbers for J company.

Table 3-22 Company K Sucker Rod Pumping Failure Frequencies in the Permian Basin

Area/Sub K

TOTAL

Year 1990 1991 1992

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

#wells

185 177

194 319 332

Pump

0.3892 0.4124

0.3814 0.5047 0.3223

Rod

0.6054 0.4237

0.3557 0.6144 0.6265

Tubing

0.1892 0.2712

0.2371 0.2226 0.3223

TOTAL

1.1838 1.1073

0.9742 1.3417 1.2711

To compare and analyze the failure data for different companies, the above failure

frequency data have been categorized according to the locations in the Permian Basin.

Selected failure frequency data are listed in Table 3-23 through Table 3-33.

69

Page 83: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Ta

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

ble 3-23 Failure Fn

Year

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

A{670/Y)

0.5317

1.0867

0.5800

0.5300

0.7800

0.6400

0.5300

0.2683

0.4483

0.2700

0.2600

0.3300

0.2300

0.2000

0.1633

0.3533

0.1800

0.1600

0.3100

0.2600

0.2000

0.1000

0.2850

0.1300

0.1100

0.1400

0.1500

0.1300

B{2532A')

0.5061

0.5107

0,5574

0,2605

0.2193

0.2094

0.2363

0.1227

0.1325

0.1614

0.1780

0.0645

0.1544

0.1398

0.1432

0.0733

^quency Of Every Company I Company and Yearly Average Active Well Nu

C(1123/Y)

0.6996

0,5284

0.6234

0.3065

0.2589

0.3345

0.2383

0.1542

0,2111

0.1548

0.1152

0.0778

D(2205A')

1.2466

0.8977

0.6836

0.6128

0.5039

0 5261

0 3354

0.2642

0 2386

0,1798

0,3824

0 2764

0,1682

0,1867

0 1725

0.1897

0,1921

0.1557

0.1374

0.1272

E(574A')

0.7087

0.8690

0.2385

0 3016

0 2706

0 3411

0,1996

0,2262

F(3788/Y)

0.7678

0.6412

0.5473

0,5315

0,5048

0.3432

0.2586

0.2137

0.2032

0.2012

0 2368

0 1883

0,1532

0,1578

0 1455

0 1878

0 1943

0 1804

0,1705

0 1585

nTheF nnbers

G(5737/Y)

0.8266

0.7420

0.6193

0.6906

0,6334

0.4436

0.1098

0.2395

0.1764

0.1584

0.1703

0.1644

0.1077

0.0221

0.1935

0.1532

0,1287

0,1412

0,1354

0 0804

0 0213

0 2034

0 1693

0 1642

0 1571

0 1260

0 0767

00159

'ermian

H(2023/Y)

0 4600

0,4490

0.3805

0,4623

0.4019

0.1595

0.1601

0.1270

0.1352

0.1231

0.1653

0.1647

0 1259

0.1381

0 1063

0 1352

0 1241

0 1206

0 1891

0 1725

Basin

K(241A')

1.1838

1.1073

0.9742

1.3417

1.2711

0.3892

0.4124

0.3814

0.5047

0.3223

06054

0,4237

0 3557

0 6144

0 6265

0 1892

0 2712

0 2371

0 2226

0 3223

70

Page 84: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-24 Failure Frequency In Andrews

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers A(28/Y)

0.4000 1.9600 0.5900 0.9600 0.5600 0.5800 0.5500 0.3300 0.4800 0.5900 0.8500 0.4100 0.3800 0.3100 0.0700 0.6300 0.0000 0.0700 0.1100 0.1700 0.2400 0.0000 0.8500 0.0000 0.0400 0.0400 0.0300 0.0000

B(529/Y)

0.6398 0.5551 0.4362 0.2782

0.2222 0.1458 0.1048 0.0545

0.1054 0.3028 0.2629 0.1673

0.3123 0.1065 0.0686 0.0564

D(165A')

1.8166 1.6133 1.2267 0.9577 0.6163

0.6686 0.4933 0.3953 0.4225 0.2616

0.6036 0.4933 0.3140 0.2254 0.2093

0.3018 0.4400 0.3953 0.2254 0.1221

H(112/Y)

1.2500 1.6250 0.7054 0.9286 0.2793

0.3036 0.3304 0.1161 0.1518 0.0811

0.5179 0.7946 0.3571 0.3839 0.0811

0.4286 0.5000 0.2321 0.3929 0.1171

71

Page 85: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-25 Failure Frequency In Midland

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers

A(71/Y) B(186/Y)

1.1400 1.8000 1.4600 1.7500 1.8600 1.1400 0.7400 0.6000 0.9100 0.6000 0.8900 0.6500 0.1900 0.1200 0.3300 0.5100 0.3100 0.3500 0.7100 0.4000 0.1600 0.2100 0.3800 0.5500 0.5100 0.5000 0.5500 0.4600

0.2296 0.3613 0.8056 0.3886

0.1531 0.1257 0.4722 0.1600

0.0510 0.0942 0.1389 0.0686

0.0255 0.1414 0.1944 0.1600

72

Page 86: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-26 Failure Frequency In New Mexico

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers A(108A')

0.4200 0.7400 0.7500 0.2400 1.7100 1.6400 1.2700 0.1800 0.3600 0.3900 0.1400 0.7200 0.5400 0.4100 0.1000 0.3000 0.2500 0.0700 0.7900 0.8000 0.6400 0.1400 0.0800 0.1100 0.0300 0.2000 0.3000 0.2200

C(131/Y)

0.5462 0.4106 0.4141

0.2615 0.2510 0.1818

0.2000 0.0913 0.1616

0.0846 0.0684 0.0707

D(245A')

0.6172 0.4775 0.4195 0.3230 0.4298

0.2772 0.1799 0.2509 0.1284 0.1488

0.1782 0.1246 0.0749 0.0973 0.1033

0.0726 0.1073 0.0749 0.0700 0.1777

73

Page 87: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-27 Failure Frequency In Denver

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers

B(63A')

0.4923 0.7258 0.7742 0.2540

0.1231 0.3065 0.0968 0.0952

0.2308 0.2258 0.4839 0.1111

0.1385 0.1935 0.1935 0.0476

C{^AOfY)

0.8284 0.7514 0.9524

0.2537 0.3540 0.3356

0.3657 0.2095 0.4717

0.2090 0.1878 0.1451

D(546/Y)

1.4063 0.8125 0.6606 0.7441 0.5922

0.6475 0.3805 0.2924 0.3237 0.2267

0.3265 0.1985 0.1516 0.2458 0.2149

0.2542 0.1654 0.1264 0.1153 0.1117

74

Page 88: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-28 Failure Frequency In Levelland

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers

B(175A')

0.2652 0.3600 0.2573 0.1345

0.1547 0.1657 0.1053 0.0819

0.0608 0.0914 0.0585 0.0234

0.0497 0.1029 0.0936 0.0292

0(409^^)

0.5269 0.3811 0.3547

0.2511 0.1534 0.2207

0.0785 0.1195 0.0985

0.1973 0.1083 0.0355

D(355A')

0.8958 0.6732 0.5029 0.4051 0.2661

0.2620 0.1437 0.0971 0.0907 0.0673

0.3577 0.2704 0.1457 0.1898 0.1257

0.1211 0.1493 0.0714 0.0963 0.0702

75

Page 89: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

ible 3-29 Failure Frequency In Wasson

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers A(326A')

0.3800 0.4800 0.2900 0.2400 0.2500 0.2000 0.2000 0.2000 0.2900 0.1800 0.1400 0.1500 0.1100 0.1300 0.0900 0.1300 0.0700 0.0500 0.0400 0.0400 0.0300 0.0900 0.0600 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0500 0.0400

B(170A')

0.5749 0.6506 0.5805 0.3547

0.2156 0.3012 0.2011 0.2151

0.2156 0.2169 0.1667 0.0116

0.1437 0.1325 0.2126 0.1279

C(121A')

0.7633 0.7861 0.9000

0.3529 0.3930 0.3778

0.3037 0.2927 0.4556

0.1067 0.1003 0.0667

D(516A')

1.2696 1.1783 0.7382 0.6124 0.5222

0.5602 0.4360 0.2618 0.2267 0.1605

0.3939 0.3934 0.1969 0.1725 0.1838

0.2084 0.2500 0.2165 0.1512 0.1393

76

Page 90: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-30 Failure Frequency In Monahans

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers

B(116/Y)

0.8110 0.6475 0.5776 0.1919

0.4567 0.3033 0.3793 0.0505

0.2520 0.2213 0.1379 0.0505

0.1024 0.1230 0.0603 0.0909

D(139A')

2.0451 1.1328 0.8571 0.7122 0.7153

0.6842 0.4766 0.4071 0.2878 0.2847

0.7218 0.2734 0.1857 0.1223 0.1898

0.2632 0.2266 0.1286 0.2302 0.2336

77

Page 91: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-31 Failure Frequency In MSAU-ANDREWS

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers B(521A')

0.5541 0.4183 0.2747 0.1420

0.2372 0.1578 0.1122 0.0447

0.1120 0.1008 0.0503 0.0350

0.2049 0.1597 0.1122 0.0623

C{47l\)

1.2469 0.6944 0.5902

0.5926 0.2778 0.3934

0.4074 0.2222 0.1311

0.2469 0.1944 0.0656

78

Page 92: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Table 3-32 Failure Frequency In Sundown

TOTAL

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

Year

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

Company and Yearly Average Well Numbers

E(251/Y)

0.7611 0.8126

0.2420 0.2287

0.4059 0.4410

0.1132 0.1429

F(64A')

1.4833 0.9219 0.9375 0.7538 0.8308

0.8667 0.3906 0.4063 0.3231 0.3385

0.3667 0.4219 0.3750 0.2923 0.4154

0.2500 0.1094 0.1563 0.1385 0.1077

79

Page 93: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

3.3 Failure Frequency Graphs

To make the failure data more straightforward, the above tables have been converted

to figures, Fig. 3-1 through Fig. 3-49. On the charts, A(670/Y) means Company A had an

average number of 670 active producing wells per year.

1.4000

1.2000

o z UJ D

a ULl C^ u. UJ oc z> -1 < u.

1.0000

0.8000

0.6000

0.4000

0.2000

0.0000

1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-1 All Companies Total Failure Frequencies

80

Page 94: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

0.6000

0.5000 >-o g 0.4000 D O a: 0.3000 UJ

oc 0.2000

0.1000

0.0000

Ai570/Y) B(2532/Y)

- • C(1123A') ^ D(2642/Y) * E(574/Y) © F(3788/Y)

G(5737/Y) • -^ - •H(2023/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig 3-2 All Companies Pump Failure Frequencies

0.7000

0.6000

> 0.5000 z UJ O 0.4000 UJ

u. g 0.3000

-J

£ 0.2000

0.1000

0.0000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 YEAR

1996

Fig. 3-3 All Companies Rod Failure Frequencies

Page 95: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>• o z UJ 3

o UJ CL u. UJ

oc < u.

0.0000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-4 All Companies Tubing Failure Frequencies

o UJ

a UJ oc u. UJ oc Z) < u.

0.000 1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-5 Andrews Total Failure Frequencies

82

Page 96: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

0.900

0.800

0.700 >-

Z 0.600 UJ

2 0.500 DC

UJ 0.400 OC

d 0.300 < u.

0.200

0.100

0.000

1990

• ~ T — "

4—A(28A')

B(529A')

-K—D(165A')

-:^--H(112A')

1991 1992 1993

YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-6 Andrews Pump Failure Frequencies

83

Page 97: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

FRE

QU

EN

CY

FA

ILU

RE

0.800

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

YEAR

Fig. 3-7 Andrews Rod Failure Frequencies

1996

0.100

0.000

4—A(28A')

B(529A')

X—D(165A')

[--A--H(112/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-8 Andrews Tubing Failure Frequencies

84

Page 98: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-

ENC

FR

EQ

U

UJ oc

AIL

U

UL

2.000

1.800

1.600

1.400

1.200

1.000

0.800

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-9 Midland Total Failure Frequencies

1.000

0.900

0.800

O 0.700 z UJ => 0.600 o UJ OC 0.500 u. UJ a: 0.400 < 0.300 u.

0.200

0.100

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-10 Midland Pump Failure Frequencies

85

Page 99: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

0.000

A(71A')

B(186A')

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-11 Midland Rod Failure Frequencies

86

Page 100: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

0.600

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-12 Midland Tubing Failure Frequencies

87

Page 101: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-o z UJ

1.800

1.600

1.400

1.200

2 1.000 OC

UJ 0.800 oc

d 0.600 < u.

0.400

0.200

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-13 New Mexico Total Failure Frequencies

0.800

0.700

> 0.600 z UJ D 0.500 a UJ pC 0.400 u. UJ

£ 0.300

< 0.200

0.100

0.000

-•-A(108A')

-•-C(131A')

-><- D(245/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-14 New Mexico Pump Failure Frequencies

88

Page 102: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-

o z UJ 3 a UJ oc II UJ

oc J < u.

0.800

0.700

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

•A(108A')

•C(131/Y)

•D(245A')

0.100

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-15 New Mexico Rod Failure Frequencies

0.300

0.250

0.050

•A(108/Y)

•C(131A')

D(245/Y)

0.000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-16 New Mexico Tubing Failure Frequencies

89

Page 103: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

1.6

1.4

> 1.2 O

UJ 1 a UJ cc 0.8 u. UJ oc 0.6

0.4

0.2

0

>-o z UJ Z)

o UJ oc u. UJ oc

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

< 0.2

0.1

B(63A')

CCHOA')

D(546A')

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-17 Denver Total Failure Frequencies

B(63/Y)

C{^40rY)

D(546A^)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-18 Denver Pump Failure Frequencies

90

Page 104: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

> o z UJ

D o UJ OC u. UJ

oc < u.

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0

• • - B(63A')

-m- C(140/Y)

-X-D(546A')

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 YEAR

Fig. 3-19 Denver Rod Failure Frequencies

1996

>-o z UJ

0.3

0.25

0.2

O UJ OC 0.15 u. UJ

oc d 0.1

0.05 B(63A')

C(140/Y)

D(546A')

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 YEAR

Fig. 3-20 Denver Tubing Failure Frequencies

1996

91

Page 105: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-o z UJ

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

2 05 OC

m 0.4 OC

3 0.3

0.2

0.1

0

B(175A')

C(409/Y)

D(355A')

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-21 Levelland Total Failure Frequencies

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-22 Levelland Pump Failure Frequencies

92

Page 106: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

o z UJ

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25 O UJ OC 0.2 u. UJ

§ 0.15

0.1

0.05

0

1990 1991 1992 1993

YEAR

1994

B(175A')

C(409A')

D(355A')

1995 1996

Fig. 3-23 Levelland Rod Failure Frequencies

0.2

0.18

0.16

O 0.14 z UJ 3 0.12

a UJ OC 0.1 u. UJ

oc 0.08

< 0.06

0.04

0.02

J_ B(175A')

C(409A')

D(355A')

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-24 Levelland Tubing Failure Frequencies

93

Page 107: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-o z UJ D o UJ OL u. UJ

A(326A')

B(170A')

C(121/Y)

D(516/Y)

0.600

0.400

0.200

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-25 Wasson Total Failure Frequencies

0.600 A(326A')

B(170A')

C(121A')

0(516 1 )

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-26 Wasson Pump Failure Frequencies

94

Page 108: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

0.500

0.450

0.400

O 0.350 f i

UJ •D 0.300 o UJ

Q: 0.250 UJ

^ 0.200

< 0.150

0.100 0.050

0.000

•A(326A')

•B(170A')

•C(121A')

•D(516/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

YEAR

Fig. 3-27 Wasson Rod Failure Frequencies

1996

0.250

0.200

>-o z UJ

3 0.150

a UJ oc u. UJ

oc 0.100 < u.

0.050

0.000

•A(326A')

•B(170A')

•C(121A')

•D(516/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-28 Wasson Tubing Failure Frequencies

95

Page 109: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

2.5

> • o z UJ

a UJ oc u. UJ

oc

1.5

0.5

0

•B(116A')

D(139/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-29 Monahans Total Failure Frequencies

> • o z UJ 3

o UJ OC u. UJ oc

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0 3

< 0.2

0.1

B(116A')

DCISgA')

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-30 Monahans Pump Failure Frequencies

96

Page 110: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

B(116A')

D(139/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-31 Monahans Rod Failure Frequencies

0.3

0.25 > •

o m 0.2

a UJ oc 0.15 u. UJ

oc 3 0.1

0.05

B(116A')

D(139A') —X

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-32 Monahans Tubing Failure Frequencies

97

Page 111: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>

o z UJ D

o UJ OC u. UJ oc 3 _J <

1.4

1.2

1

OR

0.6

0.4

0.2

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-33 MSAU-ANDREWS Total Failure Frequencies

>-o z UJ

0.6

0.5

0.4

-•-B(521A') { |-»-C(47/Y)

a UJ

P 0.3 UJ

oc 0.2

0.1

0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR 1990 1991

Fig. 3-34 MSAU-ANDREWS Pump Failure Frequencies

98

Page 112: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-o z UJ

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

2 025 OC

H] 0.2 OC

3 0.15 < u.

0.1

0.05

0

B(521A')

C(47/Y)

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-35 MSAU-ANDREWS Rod Failure Frequencies

>-o z UJ

o UJ oc u. UJ

oc < u.

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR 1990 1991 1992

Fig. 3-36 MSAU-ANDREWS Tubing Failure Frequencies

99

Page 113: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 YEAR

Fig. 3-37 Sundown Total Failure Frequencies

1996

>-o z UJ D

a UJ oc u. UJ

oc < u.

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 YEAR

Fig. 3-38 Sundown Pump Failure Frequencies

1996

100

Page 114: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

> •

o z UJ D o UJ OC u. UJ oc -J < u.

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 YEAR

1994

E(251A')

F(64A')

1995 1996

Fig. 3-39 Sundown Rod Failure Frequencies

0.25

o z UJ D

o UJ OC

S 0.1

0.15

0.05

E(251A')

e - F(64A')

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-40 Sundown Tubing Failure Frequencies

101

Page 115: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-41 Company A Failure Frequencies

>-o I I I

FRE

QU

UJ OC

—I

FA

I

0.600

0.500

0.400

0.300

0.200

0.100

0.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-42 Company B Failure Frequencies

102

Page 116: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

0.7

0.6

>; 0.5

z UJ

a 0.4 UJ OC

g 0.3

1 0.2

0.1

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

YEAR

Fig. 3-43 Company C Failure Frequencies

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-44 Company D Failure Frequencies

103

Page 117: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-o z UJ Z) a UJ oc u. UJ oc

1990 1991 1992 1993 YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-45 Company E Failure Frequencies

>-o

0.8

0.7

0.6

^ 0.5

a UJ oc 0.4 U-UJ

§ 0.3

0.2

0.1

PUMP

ROD

TUBING

TOTAL

1992 1993 1994 1995 YEAR

1990 1991

Fig. 3-46 Company F Failure Frequencies

1996

104

Page 118: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

>-

o z UJ D

o UJ OC u. UJ oc D -1 < u.

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0,4

0 3

0.2

0.1

PUMP ROD

TUBING TOTAL

1990 1991 1992 1993 YEAR

1994 1995 1996

Fig. 3-47 Company G Failure Frequencies

>-o z UJ D O UJ oc u. UJ oc D

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0

PUMP ROD

TUBING TOTAL

1993 YEAR

1994 1995 1990 1991 1992

Fig. 3-48 Company H Failure Frequencies

1996

105

Page 119: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 YEAR

Fig. 3-49 Company K Failure Frequencies

3.4 Some Observations of the Tables and Graphs

From the above tables and graphs, it can be observed that (1) different companies

have very different operation management and data organizing modes, some are more

efficient and easier to access their useful data; (2) different companies have very different

failure frequencies which to some extent are the criteria to judge their field operation

efficiency, facility manipulation, underground working conditions of the sucker rod

pumping equipment and so forth; (3) there is a trend of failure frequency decrease among

the participated companies with few exceptions, (4) generally speaking pump failure

frequency is the largest compared with those of sucker rod and tubing for all the sucker

rod pumping wells, (5) to attain a better picture of the Permian Basin sucker rod pumping

failures, further endeavor may be exerted on the statistical analysis of the provided data.

106

Page 120: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

3.5 Summary

From the tables and graphs in this chapter, the following observations have been made.

• To obtain the required data some of the provided Access files have to be converted

and sorted to Excel files;

• With the reorganized Excel files, active well numbers and classified failures may be

counted;

• To compare the failures of the sucker rod pumping system, failure frequency should

be introduced. Failure frequency is calculated by failure numbers and active well

numbers;

• To be more straightforward, the failure frequency tables have been plotted to

graphs;

• From the generated tables and graphs, some phenomena have been observed.

107

Page 121: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

CHAPTER 4

APPLICATION OF FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

TO SUCKER ROD PUMPING SYSTEM

4.1 Introduction

Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was first developed in 1961-62 by H. A. Watson of Bell

Telephone Laboratories under an Air Force study contract for the Minuteman Launch

Control System. "* ' ' ^ Since then it has been widely used to improve the safety of various

systems in military, aerospace, mining and nuclear industries. It has been often used as a

failure analysis tool by reliability experts. Sucker rod pumping is the most widely used

form of artificial lift in the world. Failures of the sucker rod system have caused millions

of dollars' loss in the world. The Permian Basin is one of the largest oil production bases.

It would be most beneficial to guarantee the normal operation of sucker-rod systems in

this area. Oil companies are now seeking measures to reduce the failures of the sucker rod

pumping system. There are many methods utilized in the fault diagnosis of the sucker rod

pumping system, but most of them are valid only in some cases. The use of FTA to

analyze failures of the sucker rod system will result in better decision making. This

research program is supported by more than eleven oil companies in the Permian Basin.

When this project is accomplished, it is expected to find out the main failure causes for

different companies and for different production units, and to make the sucker rod

pumping systems much more efficient and effective.

4.2 Definition of Failures

The failures of sucker rod pumping wells are undesired events. Such events usually

arise in the sucker rod pumping systems that have a history of recurring faults. Past

failure records have indicated that the systems and events qualify for FTA.

In defining an undesired event, first determine all the undesired events in an operating

system. In a sucker rod pumping system, the stoppage of operafion may be caused by (1)

equipment failure or failures, and (2) failure or failures of the well itself Equipment

108

Page 122: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

failure(s) may be caused by the pumping unit, the sucker rod string, and the downhole

pump. Well failure(s) may cause equipment failure(s), that is, well failure(s) may be

incorporated in the equipment failure(s) or malfunction(s). Detailed failures of the system

will be presented on Fig. 4-1 through Fig. 4-7.

4.3 Understanding the System

After defining an undesired event, the next task is to gain an understanding of the

system selected for FTA. The important part of this step is gaining knowledge of system

operations and interactions. All available information about the system and its

environment should be studied. The information should include system drawings,

layouts, schematics, specifications, pictures, diagrams, operating manuals, and

information gained from experienced people. Any data of the system can be useful.

For the sucker rod pumping system, operation can be guaranteed by electricity,

linking and control components and fluid flow in reservoir and in vertical and horizontal

pipes. Any factor causing trouble with them may result in failure of the whole system.

4.4 Construction ofthe Fault Tree

Fault tree construction is a logic process that produces a diagram displaying all

possible causes ofthe undesired event. The process starts with the undesired event, here

the pumping well failure, at the top ofthe tree. Reasoning backward from the top event,

the events (primary events, here equipment failures and well failures) that could directly

cause the top undesired event are shown immediately below. They are input events to the

top event. Logic gates indicate the relationships between these primary causes in

producing the undesired events.

Each primary event is an output event, and each is analyzed to determine its causes.

The logic process continues for each event identified and ends with independent or

undeveloped events. Throughout the process, logic gates show how input events interact

to produce each output event. The fault tree for a sucker rod pumping system is as shown

on Fig. 4-1 through Fig. 4-7.

109

Page 123: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

4.5 Evaluation of the Fault Tree

After constructing the fault tree, the next step is to evaluate the tree. In the evaluation,

determine the circumstances under which each ofthe bottom events could occur. In

making this determination, the relative likelihood or probability of occurrence of these

independent or undeveloped events is also assessed. Probabilities result from test results,

experience, published data, accident and incident records, or engineering judgment. The

likelihood ofthe output events immediately above the bottom events is then determined

from the probabilities. The evaluation process continues up the tree until determining the

likelihood for the undesired event shown at the top.

Mathematical techniques for combining and simplifying the fault tree probabilities

may be used to perform a quantitative evaluation. There are many factors to determine:

the overall likelihood ofthe undesired event, the combination of events most likely

leading to the undesired event, the events that contribute the most to this combination,

and the most likely event sequences or paths to the top ofthe tree.

pumping unit failure

tubing failure

JL equipment failure

OR

sucker-rod string failure

pumping well failure

OR

downhole pump failure

well failure

OR

± casing failure

well head failure

Fig. 4-1 Pumping Well Failure Comprehensive Tree

110

Page 124: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

pumping unit failure

OR

counterbalance part failure

motor does not work

power transmission part failure

movement conversion part failure

bearing failure

OR

Fig. 4-2 Pumping Unit Failure Tree

111

Page 125: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

tubing failure

OR

tubing body failure

tubing connection failure

OR OR

thread damage

OR

Fig. 4-3 Tubing Failure Tree

112

Page 126: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

sucker-rod failure

OR

polished rod

failure sucker-rod

string failure

OR OR

body failure

connection failure

pin failure

OR

thread failure

thread failure

Fig. 4-4 Sucker Rod Failure Tree

113

Page 127: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

downhole pump failure

OR

pump malfunction

pump parts failure

OR OR

gas interference

Incomplete tillage

JL plunger or travelling valve leak

standing valve leak

barrel failure

plunger failure

travelling valve failure

standing valve failure

Fig. 4-5 Downhole Pump Failure Tree

114

Page 128: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

casing failure

OR

casing thread failure casing body failure

OR OR

casing collapse

/ formation \ I creep J

Fig. 4-6 Casing Failure Tree

115

Page 129: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

output event

undeveloped event (not necessary or lack of information to develop further)

independent event

OR OR gate, representing a situation In which any of the events shown below the gate (input events) will lead to the event shown above the gate (output event) The output event will occur if and only If one or any combination of the input events exist.

AND AND gate, representing a condition in which all the events shown below the gate (Input events) must be present for the event above the gate (output event) to occur The output event will occur only if all of the Input events exist simultaneously.

Fig. 4-7 Wellhead Failure Tree and Notes

116

Page 130: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

Failure probability at any level, P. can be calculated using the following equations: n n

P = Z P. = Z 1 - R, (t) for OR gates fault trees i=l 1=1

n n

P = n Pi = n 1 - Ri (t) for AND gates fault trees i=l

R,( t ) -e -i=l

->Mt

where, P,—-the probability of failure ofthe i" component on the next lower le\el;

R,(t)—-the reliabilit}' ofthe i"" component:

t—time;

?ij—-failure rate ofthe i"' component (usually assumed constant);

n-—the number of components on the next lower le\el.

The reliability ofthe system. Rg, is determined by using the failure probability ofthe

system, P

R s = l - P s -

By using the above evaluation techniques, the reliability of any system can be e\aluated

on a probability basis, which can be used to direct operafion and to make solufions. At

present more detailed data are being prepared by oil companies, we have to use the

available data to do analysis. To best use these data, we use another mathematical

evaluation technique to evaluate the fault tree (Fig. 4-8).

Data of failures in sucker-rod pumping systems of Company A are given in Table 4-1

which came from different production units in the Permian Basin. Failure data of other

companies are not presented here (the anahsis showed the same results with those

presented here). Table 4-2 is the failure frequency data sheet for different production

units and for different years, which can be used as a basis for various failure occurrence,

i.e., probabilities of occurrence of different failures in the sucker-rod pumping system.

Table 4-3 is the total failure data, which can work as an average probability calculation

for all the production units in different years.

17

Page 131: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

sucker-rod pumping system stoppage

OR

stoppage due to pump

OR

X rod body failure

OR

sucker-rod string failure

OR

JL sucker-rod

string failure

OR

rod box failure

OR

JL rod pin failure

OR

Fig. 4-8 Sucker Rod Pumping System Stoppage Tree

118

Page 132: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

UNIT

DENVER

ADNREWS

OTHER

CLU

SELU

NMPU

WASSON

ADNREWS

TXL

MONAHANS

LPU

YEAR

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

PUMP

FAIL

245

195

144

187

134

31

16

7

4

6

25

10

10

12

10

49

15

9

15

10

83

51

65

31

36

265

213

123

115

82

111

73

68

60

38

169

68

48

51

91

61

57

40

38

81

29

23

31

23

PUMP

CHANGE

104

12

18

4

0

1

1

0

0

1

6

7

5

0

0

5

12

6

1

0

1

1

2

2

0

28

12

10

2

1

2

1

0

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

12

22

11

1

0

TBG

BODY

137

90

70

68

66

13

18

19

5

2

18

16

7

6

3

25

36

18

28

20

22

31

20

18

43

109

129

110

78

72

51

66

68

32

21

28

25

28

44

35

29

18

32

32

43

53

25

34

24

TABLE 4-1 Failure Data Sheet CAUSE OF STOPPAGE

ROD BODY FAIL

3/4

63

46

37

87

74

7

4

8

1

0

10

7

4

3

0

13

12

3

6

4

9

7

0

5

5

32

50

24

22

21

33

26

14

7

6

29

12

8

12

20

7

3

1

2

25

19

7

9

4

7/8

26

12

5

11

10

1

3

0

0

0

0

0

1

4

0

5

3

0

2

1

3

0

1

2

2

11

19

19

14

7

8

8

5

2

2

10

2

2

2

2

0

0

1

0

5

3

1

6

1

1

16

7

9

9

6

2

1

1

2

3

1

1

0

0

0

1

1

3

0

1

5

0

0

1

0

28

26

15

10

19

22

9

5

6

8

17

6

10

11

11

1

8

0

2

2

2

3

0

1

ROD BOX FAIL.

3/4

9

3

4

4

1

1

1

0

0

0

1

6

1

1

2

6

5

6

7

2

6

1

1

3

3

7

9

5

2

8

4

4

6

2

1

3

6

2

0

3

2

1

3

1

9

13

6

9

5

7/8

14

10

1

10

6

3

2

1

2

0

14

9

4

7

2

18

6

5

6

4

11

4

1

1

2

55

32

12

17

14

14

5

7

2

2

5

7

4

3

5

2

0

0

0

32

15

9

14

6

1

15

10

3

5

3

0

0

1

3

2

0

0

0

0

0

2

1

2

2

0

1

0

1

0

1

8

5

4

1

2

3

3

3

6

4

6

7

3

6

13

3

3

2

2

2

1

2

2

0

ROD PIN FAIL

3/4

3

3

6

3

6

1

3

0

0

0

12

8

2

6

2

9

8

7

7

6

7

9

4

4

2

16

13

5

6

7

8

5

3

0

1

5

5

1

3

7

6

0

3

4

23

20

11

16

9

7/8

15

10

6

9

6

0

0

1

0

1

8

12

4

2

4

15

6

6

7

4

7

7

9

7

4

34

33

12

13

9

8

12

7

7

9

14

8

4

4

30

12

9

4

9

24

21

11

10

9

1

15

7

13

7

3

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

0

0

1

4

0

1

1

1

5

8

3

2

4

15

16

4

4

3

2

2

4

0

0

14

4

1

0

5

2

1

3

0

5

2

1

1

2

POL ROD

FAILURE

63

24

23

16

12

3

5

1

1

1

6

6

25

0

1

4

11

24

7

4

6

6

4

3

2

26

11

10

8

5

15

7

8

3

3

3

3

4

2

22

7

12

7

6

12

17

53

8

6

OTHER

FAIL

33

13

27

19

23

21

8

10

3

0

26

6

2

1

0

16

15

10

1

1

21

13

1

4

0

30

40

22

24

21

26

21

13

9

11

8

10

8

4

28

13

8

3

2

43

22

13

2

1

TOTAL

FAIL

758

442

366

439

350

71

63

42

18

17

128

90

65

42

25

172

131

99

90

58

187

138

112

83

104

664

608

375

316

270

307

242

211

135

106

331

163

123

142

272

145

120

99

98

318

239

176

143

91

ACTIVE

WELL

539

544

554

590

591

61

60

59

17

35

148

148

145

133

129

183

183

181

179

185

303

289

267

257

242

523

516

508

516

517

169

150

172

142

172

214

190

202

202

133

128

140

139

137

355

355

350

343

342

119

Page 133: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

UNIT

DENVER

ADNREWS

OTHER

CLU

SELU

NMPU

WASSON

ADNREWS

TXL

MONAHANS

LPU

YEAR

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

PUMP

FAIL.

0.323

0.441

0.393

0.426

0.383

0.437

0.254

0.167

0.222

0.353

0.195

0.111

0.154

0.286

0.400

0.285

0.115

0.091

0.167

0.172

0.444

0.370

0.580

0.373

0.346

0.399

0.350

0.328

0.364

0.304

0.362

0.302

0.322

0.441

0.358

0.511

0.417

0.390

0.359

0.335

0,421

0.475

0.404

0.388

0.255

0.121

0.131

0.217

0.253

PUMP

CHANGE

0.137

0.027

0.049

0.009

0.000

0.014

0.016

0.000

0.000

0.059

0.047

0.078

0.077

0.000

0.000

0.029

0.092

0.061

0.011

0.000

0.005

0.007

0.018

0.024

0.000

0.042

0.020

0.027

0.006

0.004

0.007

0.004

0.000

0.000

0.066

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.010

0.038

0.092

0.063

0.007

0.000

TABLE 4-

TBG

BODY

0.181

0.204

0.191

0.155

0.189

0.183

0.286

0.452

0.278

0.118

0.141

0.178

0.108

0.143

0.120

0.145

0.275

0.182

0.311

0.345

0.118

0.225

0.179

0.217

0.413

0.164

0.212

0.293

0.247

0.267

0.166

0.273

0.322

0.235

0.198

0.085

0.153

0.228

0.310

0.129

0.200

0.150

0.323

0.327

0.135

0.222

0.142

0.238

0.264

2 Failure Frequency Data Sh( CAUSE OF STOPPAGE

ROD BODY FAIL

3/4

0.083

0.104

0.101

0.198

0.211

0.099

0.063

0.190

0.056

0.000

0.078

0.078

0.062

0.071

0.000

0.076

0.092

0.030

0.067

0.069

0.048

0.051

0.000

0.060

0.048

0.048

0.082

0.064

0.070

0.078

0.107

0.107

0.066

0.051

0.057

0.088

0.074

0.065

0.085

0.074

0.048

0.025

0.010

0.020

0.079

0.079

0.040

0.063

0.044

7/8

0.034

0.027

0.014

0.025

0.029

0.014

0.048

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.015

0.095

0.000

0.029

0.023

0.000

0.022

0.017

0.016

0.000

0.009

0.024

0.019

0.017

0.031

0.051

0.044

0.026

0.026

0.033

0.024

0.015

0.019

0.030

0.012

0.016

0.014

0.007

0.000

0.000

0.010

0.000

0.016

0.013

0.006

0.042

0.011

1

0.021

0.016

0.025

0.021

0.017

0.028

0.016

0.024

0.111

0.176

0.008

0.011

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.006

0.008

0.030

0.000

0.017

0.027

0.000

0.000

0.012

0.000

0.042

0.043

0.040

0.032

0.070

0.072

0.037

0.024

0.044

0.075

0.051

0.037

0.081

0.077

0.040

0.007

0.067

0.000

0.020

0.006

0.008

0.017

0.000

0.011

ROD BOX FAIL.

3/4

0.012

0.007

0.011

0.009

0.003

0.014

0.016

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.008

0.067

0.015

0.024

0.080

0.035

0.038

0.061

0.078

0.034

0.032

0.007

0.009

0.036

0.029

0.011

0.015

0.013

0.006

0.030

0.013

0.017

0.028

0.015

0,009

0.009

0.037

0.016

0.000

0.011

0.014

0.008

0.030

0.010

0.028

0.054

0.034

0.063

0.055

7/8

0.018

0.023

0.003

0.023

0.017

0.042

0.032

0.024

0.111

0.000

0.109

0.100

0.062

0.167

0.080

0,105

0.046

0.051

0.067

0.069

0,059

0,029

0,009

0.012

0.019

0.083

0.053

0,032

0,054

0,052

0,046

0,021

0.033

0,015

0,019

0.015

0.043

0.033

0.021

0.018

0.014

0.000

0.000

0,000

0.101

0.063

0.051

0.098

0.066

1

0.020

0.023

0.008

0.011

0.009

0.000

0.000

0.024

0,167

0,118

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,012

0,008

0,020

0,022

0,000

0,005

0,000

0,009

0,000

0,010

0,012

0,008

0,011

0,003

0,007

0,010

0,012

0,014

0,044

0.038

0.018

0.043

0.024

0.042

0.048

0.021

0.025

0.020

0.020

0.006

0.004

0.011

0.014

0.000

2et

ROD PIN FAIL.

3/4

0,004

0,007

0,016

0.007

0.017

0.014

0.048

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.094

0.089

0.031

0.143

0.080

0.052

0.061

0.071

0.078

0.103

0.037

0.065

0.036

0.048

0.019

0.024

0.021

0.013

0.019

0,026

0,026

0,021

0,014

0,000

0,009

0.015

0.031

0.008

0.021

0.026

0.041

0.000

0.030

0.041

0.072

0.084

0.063

0.112

0,099

7/8

0,020

0,023

0,016

0,021

0,017

0,000

0,000

0,024

0.000

0,059

0,063

0,133

0,062

0,048

0,160

0,087

0,046

0,061

0.078

0.069

0.037

0.051

0.080

0,084

0,038

0,051

0.054

0.032

0.041

0.033

0.026

0.050

0.033

0.051

0.085

0.042

0.049

0.033

0.028

0.110

0.083

0,075

0.040

0.092

0.075

0.088

0.063

0.070

0.099

1

0.020

0.016

0.036

0.016

0.009

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,008

0,022

0,000

0,000

0,040

0,023

0,000

0,010

0,011

0,017

0,027

0,058

0,027

0.024

0,038

0,023

0,026

0,011

0,013

0,011

0,007

0,008

0,019

0,000

0.000

0.042

0.025

0.008

0.000

0.018

0.014

0.008

0.030

0.000

0.016

0.008

0.006

0.007

0.022

POL ROD

FAILURE

0.083

0.054

0.063

0.036

0.034

0.042

0,079

0,024

0.056

0.059

0,047

0,067

0.385

0.000

0.040

0.023

0.084

0.242

0.078

0,069

0,032

0,043

0,036

0,036

0,019

0,039

0,018

0.027

0.025

0.019

0.049

0.029

0.038

0,022

0,028

0,009

0,018

0,033

0,014

0,081

0,048

0,100

0,071

0,061

0,038

0,071

0.301

0.056

0.066

OTHER

FAIL

0.044

0.029

0.074

0.043

0.066

0.296

0,127

0,238

0,167

0,000

0,203

0.067

0,031

0,024

0,000

0,093

0,115

0,101

0,011

0,017

0,112

0,094

0,009

0,048

0,000

0,045

0,066

0.059

0.076

0.078

0.085

0.087

0.062

0.066

0.104

0.024

0,061

0,065

0,028

0,103

0,090

0,067

0,030

0,020

0,135

0,092

0,074

0.014

0,011

TOTAL

FAIL,

1

442

366

439

350

71

63

42

18

17

128

90

65

42

25

172

131

99

90

58

187

138

112

83

104

664

608

375

316

270

307

242

211

136

106

331

163

123

142

272

145

120

99

98

318

239

176

143

91

ACTIVE

WELL

539

544

554

590

591

61

60

59

17

35

148

148

145

133

129

183

183

181

179

185

303

289

267

257

242

523

516

508

516

517

169

150

172

142

172

214

190

202

202

133

128

140

139

137

355

355

350

343

342

120

Page 134: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

UNrr

TOTAL

FAILURES

TOTAL

FAILURE

FREQUENCY

YEAR

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1992

1993

1904

1995

i99o

PUMP

FAIL

1064

696

551

524

360

0.370

0.350

0.360

0.383

0.348

PUMP

CHANGE

147

48

41

9

9

0.052

0.024

0.027

0.007

0.009

TBG

BODY

433

426

349

307

261

0.152

0.214

0.228

0.224

0.252

TABLE 4-3 1 Total Failure Data Sheet

ROD BODY FAIL,

3/4

219

167

94

144

113

0.077

0.084

0.061

0.105

0.109

7/8

65

48

33

38

22

0.023

0.024

0.022

0.028

0.021

1

101

51

52

37

36

0.036

0.026

0.034

0.027

0.035

CAUSE OF STOPPAGE

ROD BOX FAIL

3/4

41

38

25

23

20

0.014

0.019

0.016

0.017

0.019

7/8

136

75

34

47

X

0.048

0.038

0,022

0.034

0.029

1

48

29

20

22

12

0.017

0.015

0,013

0,016

0,012

ROD PIN FAIL

3/4

70

61

30

35

29

0.025

0.031

0,020

0,026

0,028

7/8

132

103

61

54

46

0.046

0.052

0.040

0.039

0,044

1

61

41

28

17

12

0,021

0.021

0.018

0.012

0.012

POL ROD

FAILURE

147

76

117

47

34

0.052

0.038

0.076

0.034

0.033

OTHER

FAH.

192

132

97

65

59

0.067

0.066

0.063

0.047

0.057

TOTAL

FAH.

2845

1991

1532

1369

1034

1.000

1.000

^J0O0

1.000

1.000

ACTIVE

WELL

2283

2218

2241

2234

2052

2283

2218

2241

2234

2052

CD < ffi

o >-o z Ul 3

o UJ CC u.

1996

Fig. 4-9 Total Failure Frequency (Probability)

121

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According to data in the above tables, Fig. 4-9 to Fig. 4-12 were plotted to

demonstrate the failure frequency, which is here to be considered as the failure

probability. Based on data in the above tables, fault tree was constructed as that on Fig. 4-

8. From the tables and figures, it was found that the sucker rod pumping system is

vulnerable to failure because of its almost all OR gate linking, and downhole pump has

the biggest probability to fail among all the assemblies, which may be the result of

pump's multi-moving-component character, bad working conditions, and less

maintenance during its operation. Tubing has a fairly high failure frequency (probability)

which is a warrant to carefully study the motion and load ofthe tubing string. For the rod

string, polished rod, y4-rod body, 7/8-rod box and 7/8-rod pin have higher probabilities of

failure, which may result from imperfect design scheme.

0.45

>- 0.2 o

o UJ OL

0.15

0.1 X:

0.05

1992

^ pump fail • ^ • -tbg body • X 3/4 rod bd ^ - - pol rod ^ 7/8 rod pn ^ • -7/8 rod bx I pump chg

+ - -3/4 rod bx O 3/4 rod pn O - -7/8 rod bd

1 rod bdy ,0 . . . 1 rod pin •3K 1 rod box

1996

Fig. 4-10 Andrews Failure Frequency (Probability)

122

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0.45

1996

Fig. 4-11 Denver Failure Frequency (Probability)

UJ 0.15

2 0.14 oc u.

0.05

1992

7/8 rod pn 7/8 rod bx pump chg

+ • •3/4rodhx O 3/4 rod pn O - -7/8 rod bd

1 rod bdy -1 rod pin - 1 rodboK

1996

Fig. 4-12 Wasson Failure Frequency (Probability)

123

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4.6 Control ofthe Failures

From the fault tree evaluation, we may find the event sequences which are more

likely to produce the undesired event. In this way it is relatively easy to identify the

events that must be prevented or otherwise controlled to reduce the overall likelihood of

the undesired event. From the evaluation of Fig 4-8, we may find that pump has the

greatest failure frequency, which means, that when a sucker rod pumping svstem

stoppage occurs, the first consideration should be a pump failure, and during operation

and design, we have to put more emphasis on pump. Different companies in different

areas may have different pump, rod and tubing failure frequencies. Fault trees should be

constructed and evaluated, and then take measures to eliminate or reduce the basic

failures, hence reduce the system stoppage. Sucker rod pumping systems may have

different fault trees (e.g., different pumping units or downhole equipment). Consider fully

all the factors which may be a cause ofthe system stoppage.

Failure control may be accomplished through engineering, education and

administrative solutions. Engineering solutions have a permanent effect and are the most

desirable type of failure control. They will normally involve optimizing the operating

system and the working environment. Educational solutions often control failures

involving the attitude and skill ofthe workers in the field. Suitable education and training

programs may change the workers' behavior and improve the system effectiveness. It

would be more desirable to have a training program whenever a new sucker rod pumping

equipment is introduced. Administrative solutions often involve changing the methods or

procedures followed during manipulating the sucker rod system. At times, there are

failures which cannot be controlled by the above solutions. So some protective facilities

should be installed.

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4.7 Summary

From the above analysis, the following conclusions and suggestions may be

presented:

• Fauh Tree Analysis can be successfully applied to the sucker-rod pumping

systems. It is feasible to guide operation and decision making. It can also be used

to direct other techniques of fault diagnosis

• Sucker-rod pumping system is vulnerable to failure, failure of any component

may resuh in complete failure of the system. Pay attention to the reliability of

every component

• From the analysis of the available data, downhole pump has the highest

probability to fail. Intensive study of pump principle and design of new

downhole pumps are necessary

• Tubing has a fairly high failure frequency, more work should be done on the

motion and load ofthe tubing string

• Current sucker-rod string design has some imperfections, more attention should

be put on the design of polished rod, y4-rod body, 7/8-rod box, and 7/8-rod pin

• Continue the research work until detailed causes of failures are figured out and

better solutions are made to make the sucker rod pumping system more efficient

and more effective.

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CHAPTER 5

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF

THE SUCKER ROD PUMPING FAILURES

IN THE PERMIAN BASIN

5.1 Introduction

The occurrence ofthe failures in the sucker rod pumping system can significantly

increase the operafing costs, and decrease the productivity ofthe svstem. Efforts should

be made to reduce the failure frequencies and promote the overall efficiency ofthe

operating system. With the databases provided by oil companies in the Permian Basin,

the author got the chance to analyze the failure data using the statistical techniques. The

statistical techniques have been widely used in all areas in industry. At present the

accurate occurrences of failures in a sucker rod pumping system still cannot be predicted

owing to the complex working mechanisms. But with the help ofthe statistical techniques

and probability theories, a rough idea about the failure picture in the sucker rod pumping

system may be determined. With the results ofthe statistical analysis, statistical decision

making may improve our current sucker rod pumping systems.

The main limitations of doing stafisfical analysis ofthe failure data in this study are:

• Incomplete databases. In some ofthe databases, there are data only for two years.

Some databases only include some ofthe subareas' data. Some ofthe databases

do not hold the necessary information.

• Inconsistency ofthe names of fields, units, formations, locations, company

names.

In this chapter, the sucker rod pumping failures in the Permian Basin will be analyzed

using the statistical techniques. For the sake of further study, the mainframe ofthe

statistical techniques will be reviewed first.

126

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5.2 Statistical Mathematics

In this secfion the following stafisfical analysis methods will be presented:

• Distribution: normal distribution, sampling distribution, ^--distribution, t-

distribution,

• Means, variance and standard deviation,

• Linear regression.

5.2.1 Some Nomenclatures Used in Stafistical Analysis

Deviation: For discrete system the difference of individual value and the mean, Xj - x.

For continuous system the difference of x and m{x}, x - 4 •

Mean (or Average): For discrete system the sum ofthe observed values divided by their

number

- 1 "

For continuous system X

^= jxp(x)dx. - 0 0

Median: the measured value that is as frequently exceeded as not of a set of

measurements.

Population: the aggregate generated by individual observations.

Standard Deviation: s, posifive value ofthe square root ofthe variance.

Variance: For discrete system it is defined as follows

I ( x . - x ) ^ s = --J

n - 1

For continuous system it is expressed as

a^= J(x-^)^p(x)dx = ? - ^ ^

127

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Grouping: When grouping, we divide a suitable interval which includes all the

observational results, x„ Xj, ..., x„, into m intervals, the class intervals. The

lengths ofthe class intervals are denoted by At,, Atj, ..., At^, and the

midpoints ofthe m class intervals are termed t,, t2, ... , t,„. The phrases .

length ofthe class interval and midpoint ofthe class interval, will be

abbreviated to class length and class midpoint, respectively. The number of

observations, aj, in the jth class interval indicates the number of observations

safisfying the inequality

Atj Atj

The distribution {ox frequency ofthe observations) is defined as

^ n

The cumulative frequency, i.e., the frequency ofthe observations smaller or

At. equal to the class limit tj +~z~, can be expressed as

k = l

5.2.2 Normal Distribution

5.2.2.1 Normal Distribution

The normal distribution funcfion, p(x), is defined by

p(x) = .— e 2cj' (-00 < X < +co)

V2TCCT

where, x-stochastic variable,

a—the standard deviation of x,

a^—the variance of x,

4"the mean of x.

128

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The probability (or cumulative distribufion fiincfion) is defined as

P(x) = P { t < x } = - ^ r e " ' ^ ^ ' d t . V2TCCJ ^'^-

x-5 Let u = , we can get the standardized normal distribution, (p(u)

(p(u) = 1 -Hi

v27i

The standardized cumulative distribution function, 0(u). is

1 u u^

0(u) = |e" ^ du

Table 5-1 shows some ofthe cumulative function values.

Table 5-1 The cumulative distribution function of standardized normal distribution

u

-3.29

-3.09

-2.58

-2.33

-1.96

-1.64

-1.28

-0.84

-0.52

-0.25

0

0(u)

0.0005

0.001

0.005

0.01

0.025

0.05

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

u

0

0.25

0.52

0.84

1.28

1.64

1.96

2.33

2.58

3.09

3.29

cD(u)

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

0.95

0.975

0.99

0.995

0.999

0.9995

129

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The probability that x deviates more than a times the standard dev iation from the mean is

P{|x - 1 > aa j = P{x < c - aa\ + P{x > ^ + aa}

= P{u<-a}+P{u>a}

= 0(-a) + [ l -0 (a ) ]

- 2 [ l - 0 ( a ) ]

5.2.2.2 Fitting a Normal Distribufion to Observed Data

The parameters ofthe normal distribution corresponding to the sample population are

unknown, so the theoretical distribution cannot be computed. An estimate ofthe

distribution can be obtained by substituting the calculated mean, x, and standard

deviation, s, for ^ and a in the formulas for the distribution function and the cumulative

distribution function. This is termed as fitting a normal distribution to observed data.

The probability of an observation less than or equal to the j'** class limit is

r

?< At. x< t j+Yl>-cD

G

V

th and the probability of an observation belonging to the j class is

At At, ^ ^ At ^

a - O

At ,

The fitting procedures are as follows:

At -At ^ " ^ T " ' ' t + — =:> u = ^ - — => (p(u) ^ 0(u) => 0(Uj^,) - 0(u.) => compare 2 s

5.2.3 Sampling Distribufion

From the stafistical viewpoint, a set of observations is always interpreted as a sample

from a population, as the purpose of a statistical analysis is to draw inferences about the

130

Page 144: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

population or about future samples from the populafion. The given sample is only one of

the whole population of samples, which might have been generated bv- the repeated

selecfions of random samples ofthe same size from the given population. For each

sample we may compute the mean, the variance, the frequency ofthe observations below

a given value, etc. These numbers vary from sample to sample in a random way and the

corresponding distributions are called sampling distribufions or distribufions of sample

means, variances, frequencies, etc. The corresponding theoretical distribufion of sample

means may be derived from the theoretical distribution ofthe given variables. Theoretical

sampling distributions are of fundamental importance, because they permit us to predict

the variations ofthe sample means and variances. Further, the sampling distribution of

the mean usually depends on the mean ofthe given population, so that by utilizing the

sampling distribution we are able to draw inferences from the sample mean about the

population mean.

5.2.3.1 Sampling Distribution ofthe Mean

Consider an infinite population of values of a variable x with mean ^ and variance G\

from which random samples of n elements are drawn. The n elements of a sample are

denoted by x,, Xj, ..., x , where the values of each element are distributed independently

ofthe other values and according to the given distribution function of x, the mean of x,,

m{Xi} = 5 and the variance of Xj, \{x-} = a". The sum and the mean ofthe n values are

Sx = X i + X 2 + . . . + X n

X = - ( x i +X2+. . .+Xn) . n

The mean and variance of S, and x are

131

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m{Sx} = m{x,} + m{x2}+...+m{Xn} = nq

v{Sx} = v{xi} + v{x2 j+...+v{Xn} = na^

m{x} = -[m{x,} + m{x2}+...+m{Xn}] = c

- 1 a'-v{x} = ^ [ v { x , } + v{x2}+...+v{Xn}] = — ,

n n

i.e., the sample means vary at random about the population mean with a standard

deviation of a / vri . If the population is approximately normally distributed, the

sampling distribution ofthe mean does not deviate very much from the normal

distribution, if n>30 is small.

5.2.3.2 Sampling Distribution ofthe Variance

The variance is

1 " -

n - 1 ,=1

we introduce Xj - x = (Xj - 4) - (x - c). which leads to

( n - l ) s - -i=l

y^a - n ( x - 4 )

m{(n-l)s^} = i=l

-nm{(x-^)^}

i = l i = l

= (n- l )a '

m{s^} = c7 .

i.e., the sample variances vary at random about the population variance. The variance of

the theoretical distribution of sample variances is defined as

132

Page 146: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

v{s^} = m{(s2-a^)2}

.4 a n

1-14 n - 3

a 4 n - 1

II4 =m{(x-^) '^}.

For increasing values of n, if 14 is finite, the sampling distribufion ofthe variance will

converge to the normal distribution.

5.2.4 7 - Distribution

If we have n stochastically independent observafions, x,, Xj, ... , x , from a normally

distributed population with parameters (£,, a^), an estimate s of a^ is calculated by

'=yz(''.-^)'-i=l

If the population mean 4 is known, which is very seldom the case, the estimate s is

replaced by

i=l

--'^T i ^ r x j - o n r r V a /

1=1

1 "

" i = X i - §

Let

so

i=l

-^2 2 X s = a — n

133

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If we consider a population of samples, each consisting of n stochasficall>

independent observations from a normally distributed population with parameters

(^, cj^), and calculate the quantity

for each sample, we obtain a population of x^ -\'alues whose distribution ftinction, the

X" -ftinction, must be independent of 4 and a^, as x^ is a ftincfion of n standardized

variables. Hence, the x^ -distribution depends only on n, and the distribution of s may be

derived from the distribution of x' •

2 1 2 = ^ — r X i n - 1

" ^ X ; - X ^ Xl^=Z

i=iV ^ J

and the following relation is satisfied

So, the distributions of s" and s' may both be derived from the x^ -distribufion by simple

transformations.

According to the above definition, the independent variables, u,, U2, ..., u all are

normally distri'buted with parameters (0,1). The distribution function of x^ depends on

solely on n, termed the number of freedom of %' ^ as the variables ofthe sum of squares

are standardized. The distribution function can be expressed as

134

Page 148: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

p{x'} _ i^} - 1

22 r

ii = f" , l2- 'J ! = <

n n 3 1 ~-ljx\—-2\x...x-x-xy[n, for n odd

n , W n ^ ~ - l I X I —-2 Ix...x3x 2x 1, for n even.

r(x) is called the Gamma-ftmcfion. r( l)=l , r(l/2)= VT:

The mean of x" -distribufion is

00

m{x'}= J(x')p{x'}d(x') = n. 0

The variance of %' -distribution is

,2x2 2,x2 v{x"} = m{(x")n-(m{x^})^ =

= (n + 2 )n -n^ = 2n.

00

|(X^)^p{X^}d(x^} 0

-M-

The cumulative distribution function, P{ x"} is

X ' 2 2

P{X'}= |p{x}dx= j 4 - W d x 0 2 i r ^

5.2.5 t-Distribution

t-distribution is used in deriving confidence limits for ^ in which a is replaced by an

estimate, s, calculated from the observafions. The definition of t-distribution is

t = x - ^ s /vn

135

Page 149: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

x - ^ ^ ~ aVn ' ^^^^^ ^ ^ ^ standardized variable for the mean, x, normal distribufion

with parameters (^. a- / n). t-distribution expression can be rewritten as

s/Vn s / a yjy;- /n'

From the expression, it can be seen that t-distribufion is independent of both t and a.

since the distribution of both u and yji^n are independent of these parameters. So the

t-distribufion depends only on the number of degrees of freedom, n, for si

The distribufion ftinction oft is

P(t}= ' ' ' r"^lr ..A-^

V7m fn^ (-00 < t < CX))

Because t-distribution is symmetric about 0, so m{t}=0, v{t}=n/(n-2), the cumulafive

distribution function can be expressed as

P{t < X} = jp{t}dt.

5.2.6 Regression Analvsis

Regression is a highly useful statistical technique for developing a quantitative

relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. It

utilizes observed data on pertinent variables to develop a numerical relationship showing

the influence ofthe independent variables on the dependent variable. If nothing is known

from theory about the relationship among the pertinent variables, a function may be

assumed and fitted to observed data. Frequently linear function is assumed, but in other

cases where a linear ftinction does not fit the observed data properly, a polynomial or

exponential function may be tried. Usually only linear regression (linear ftinction or

polynomial function) are frequently used in engineering.

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5.2.6.1 Simple Linear Regression

The proposed functional relationship is

y = Po+P,x + E

Where, y-dependent variable;

x~independent variable;

Po^Pi -regression coefficients;

s-random error (or residual).

The random errors are assumed independent and have a normal distribution with

parameters (0, a^). So, the random variable, y, also has a normal distribution with

parameters (p,, + p,x, a^). To estimate the relationship of y and x, suppose there are

observafions, (x,, y,), (X2,y2), ... , (x„, y j . If PQ p,, Cj and y denote esfimates of Po,P,,

Sj and m{yj} in terms ofthe n observations. Thus each observation can be written as

Yi =Po+PiX,+£i =Po+P,Xi+ei = y , + e , .

Po p, can be obtained using the least square method.

ief=i(yi-Po-P,Xi i = l i = l

..

Po = y-Pix

n _ _

2^(Xi-x)(yi-y)

Z(Xi-x)2 i - l

The regression equation is

y -Po+PiX

) ' -

{

- min

n

ZxiYi i=l

\

-nxy

- 2

- n x

and <

n

n

n

Zvi y = M

I n

The estimated error (or the standard deviation of observed data from the regression line)

IS

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s = a =

n I n .2 Ze^ |Z(y,-y)'-PrZ(X|-xr

>^ - 1 1 = 1

n - 2

The standard deviation ofthe slope ofthe regression line is

\ =

IZ(Xi-x)' i=l

5.2.6.2 Polynomial Regression

The polynomial regression model is

y = Po+p,x + p.x'+...+PpXP+8.

The regression process involves solving the following set of linear algebraic equafions

npo+PiZ^i+P2Z^i^+-+PpZ^i''=Zyi i i i i

PoZ^i+PiZ^i '+P2Z^i '+-+PpZ^i '^ '=S^iyi i i i i 1

PoZxi2+p,Xxi3+p2Sxi^+-4pIxr^=Zxi2yi

poZxiP+p,zxiP"' ^p2i:^r'+-4,i:^-^'=ii^i'y>

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5.3 Statistical Analysis ofthe Sucker Rod Pumping Failures

in the Permian Basin

The failure frequency data for all the participated companies in the Permian Basin

have been presented in Chapter 3 (Table 3-23 through 3-33). In this section, the statistical

analysis methods described in Secfion 5.2 is used to seek some regularities among them.

In this study owing to the lack of complete databases, all the sample data are assumed

to come from the same normally distributed population with parameters (^, a^). In this

way there is no need to use x^-distribution and t-distribufion analyses. As a matter of fact,

the data from different company may have very different distribution parameters. So

when adequate data can be obtained, x^-distribution and t-distribution analyses are

recommended. In 1990, 1991 and 1997 the sample data are to few, data are analyzed from

1992 through 1996. The sample denotafion is prescribed as follows: failure data variable

x; total failure with subscript T; pump failure with subscript p; rod failure with subscript

r; tubing failure with subscript t; yearly grouping with subscript y, its values are 2, 3, 4, 5

or 6 (meaning in 1992 through 1996); company grouping with subscript c, ist values are

A, B, C, ... , K (meaning for A, B, C, ... , and K companies, respecfively).

X = {X2, X3, X4, X5, Xe}

X^ = { X A , X B , X C , X D , X E , X F , X G , X H , X I , X J , X R }

K

S x j

. ( K - A ) Xi = TTT -TT (i = 2,3,4,5,6)

6

X _ J

xi. = , / ' ' ., (k = A, B, ... , K) z

( 6 - 2 + 1)

As analysis examples, here only the data for all the companies are analyzed. Those for

subareas my use similar procedure to do statistical analysis.

Total failure frequencies:

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xjy = (0.7968, 0.6735, 0.6757, 0.6501, 0.4543}

xjc ={0.6120, 0.4587, 0.6171, 0.7889, 0.7888, 0.5985, 0.4993, 0.4307. 1.1736}.

Pump failure frequencies:

Xpy ={0.3116, 0.2614, 0.2590, 0.2274, 0.1644}

Xpc ={0.2580, 0.1969. 0.3000, 0.3088, 0.2701, 0.2440, 0.1246, 0.1410, 0.4052}.

Rod failure frequencies:

Xry ={0.2528, 0.2071, 0.2278, 0.2344, 0.1502}

Xrc ={0.2220, 0.1341, 0.2012, 0.2372, 0.3059, 0.1763, 0.1014, 0.1401. 0.5051}.

Tubing failure frequencies:

Xty ={0.1797, 0.1655, 0.1500, 0.1630, 0.1291}

Xtc ={0.1320, 0.1277, 0.1160, 0.1604. 0.2129. 0.1783, 0.1080, 0.1483. 0.2633}.

The means and the variances ofthe above variables are

XT, = 0.6501 v{xTy} = 0.015272

XTC = 0.6631 v{X'pc} = 0.052965

Xpy = 0.2448 v{Xpy} = 0.002929

Xpc= 0.2498 v{Xpc} = 0.007622

x ^ = 0.2145 v{Xry} = 0.001558

x.c= 0.2248 v{xrc} = 0.014854

x.,= 0.1574 v{Xty} = 0.000362

Xtc = 0.1608 v{xtc} = 0.002552.

Theoretically, Xky = Xkc (k = T, p, r, t), the discrepancy between them is caused by the

incompleteness ofthe data.

Next we have to fit a normal distribution to the above data to tell what the general

failure frequencies are in the Permian Basin. Let 4 = x, a = s = ^fv{x}. the normal

distributions would be

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(X-XTy)^

PTy(x) = - ^ = = = e ''''•^y^ = 3 2282e~^^'''^^''"^-^'^'^'

(x-XTc)-

PTc(x) = - 7 = = = e ^'''"Tc) ^i7335g-9.4402{x-0.6631r ^2nxy{xjJ

( X - X p , ) ^

P p v ( x ) = , ^ e -'''-^ =73715e-I70.7090(x-0.2448)^ ^27rxv{Xpy}

. (X -Xpc) -

Ppc(x)= , e ' ' '"-' =4.5694e-''^''°(''-°-''''' ^27rxv{XpJ

, (x-xnr P^(x)= , e ' '''>' =10.1073e-''°^'''<''-°^''^>'

^27rxv{x^}

1 (X-Xrc)

p,e(x)= , e '^'"^ =3.2733e-''''"("-"--''>' V27rxv{x^J

( X - X t y ) ^

Pty(x)= . ^ e" ^'^""^^ .20.9662e-l^«^-^«^«(^-0'^^4)' ^271 X v{Xty}

_ ( X - X t c ) ^

P t c ( x ) = , ^ e " 2v{xtc} ^78978e-195.9558(x-0.1608)2 727rxv{xtc}

Fig. 5-1 through Fig 5-4 are the failure distributions of total, pump, rod, and tubing

according to year and company. From the graphs, it can be seen that Pkc(x) is more

scattered than pky(x) (k=T, p, r, and t). This is because we only have 5 v ears' interval (5

points), whereas with the 9 companies we have 9 points to fitting the distribution. So,

compared with Pky(x), Pkc(x) is more reliable. This can be shown with the following

sampling distribution analysis.

The sums and means ofthe variables are calculated as follows

STV =XxTy =3.2504 XTy =0.6501 i

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^Tc = Z XTC = 5.9678 XTc = 0.6631 k

^py = Zxpy = 1-2238 xpy = 0.2448 i

Spc = Z Xpc = 2.2485 xpc = 0.2498 k

S r y = Z Xpy =1.0723 Xry =0.2145 i

Src =ZXrc =2.0233 Xrc =0.2248 k

St> = Z x t y =0-7872 xty =0.1574 i

Stc = Z Xtc = 1-4468 Xtc = 0.1608 k

1 ^ v{x>} = -7(Zvi{Xy})

• i=2

v{Xc} = ^ ( Z v . { x J ) ^ k=A

v{xTy} = - T ( 0 . 0 9 8 3 0 4 + 0.034527 + 0.086978 + 0.061480 + 0.056947) = 0.013530

v{xpy} = —(0.021098 + 0.006037 + 0.013760 + 0.005529 + 0.007563) = 0.002159

v{xry} = —(0.014923 + 0.006019 + 0.027724 + 0.025072 + 0.010889) = 0.003385

v{x,y} = —(0.002646 + 0.001681 + 0.001297 + 0.005422 + 0.004686) = 0.000629

v{xTc} = 4r(0.010870 + 0.017996 + 0.007355 + 0.086160 + 0.012839 + 0.011594 +

+ 0.055948 + 0.001385 + 0.027307) = 0.0028575

v{xpc} = ^(0 .002370 + 0.002573 + 0.001460 + 0.017869 + 0.001993 + 0.003617 + 9

+ 0.003900 + 0.000314 + 0.005797) = 0.0004925

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v{xrc} = -2-(0.003820 + 0.002504 + 0.001839 + 0.008528 + 0.002484 + 0.001407 + 7

+ 0.002586 + 0.000647 + 0.018544) = 0.0005230

1 v{xtc} = ^(0.000220 + 0.001353 + 0.001485 + 0.000878 + 0.000354 + 0.000201

+ 0.003839 +0.000944 +0.001962) = 0.0001387.

From the calculated results, v{xky} > v{xkc} (k = T, p, r. and t), this means the

distribution ofthe means is more concentrated around the mean ofthe means for analysis

according to companies than according to years.

The regression analysis can only be used for yearly variables, the data to be regressed

are in Table 5-2. To be more accurate here polynomial regression is used. The regression

model is taken as a polynomial function to the fifth power.

Xy = Po + P.y + P2y' + p3y' + p4y' + ^5/ + ^ •

Table 5-2 Average Yearly Failure Frequencies

YEAR

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

y

2

3

4

5

6

XTV

0.7968

0.6735

0.6757

0.6501

0.4543

Xpy

0.3116

0.2614

0.2590

0.2274

0.1644

Xn

0.2528

0.2071

0.2278

0.2344

0.1502

x^

0.1797

0.1655

0.1500

0.1630

0.1291

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c

3

(A Q

0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

Failure Frequency

Fig 5-1 The Total Failure Frequency Distribufion For All Companies

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8

7

6

.1 4 L .

*^ (/)

Q 3

- '

~ w

— i — _ - - ^ - —

! 1 '

1 •

, j i , ' 1 ' 1

// ^\— , , , . • . . _!

A 1 1 1

,—

/-i - -

L

__ - • -ppy(x)

; i ; i . - i — i — 1 — \ — 1 — —j— \—t— \—

' — t — ' — '

! I 1 1

—1

1

1 •

1 ! .1 . .

\ 1 1 ! 1

- • -ppc(x)

- -

yj^—. 1 ; i—,—1—,

: : ^ ' 1 1 - • — • — • — • — 1 — 1 —

• —-

1 1

— I — 1 — 1 — —

— \ — 1 — ' — ' — • 1 — 1 —

— 1 — t — • — ^

1 — \ — • — • — •

! i 1 1 '

1 — \ — '—^ r\ \ "

\ \ "—

• M - .

• — 1 — ' ^ • -

0.2 0.4 0.6

Failure Frequency

0.8

Fig 5-2 The Pump Failure Frequency Distribution For All Companies

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c .2 3

Q

0 0.2 0.4 0.6

Failure Frequency

0.8

Fig 5-3 The Rod Failure Frequency Distribufion For All Companies

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0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 Failure Frequency

Fig 5-4 The Tubing Failure Frequency Distribution For All Companies

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5Po+P,Zyi-P2Zyi'+P3Zyi^-P4Zyi'+P5Zyi^ = Zxyi

PoZyi+PiZyi '+P2Zyi '^p3Zyi '^4Zyi '+p5Zyi ' = Z>iXy ' ' i i i i i

PoZyi'+PiZyi'+p2Zyi'+P3Zyi'+p4Zyi'+p5Zyi' = Zyi'^ ' ' i i i i i

PoZyi '+PiZyi '+p2Zyi '^p3Zyi '^4Zyi '+p5Zyi ' = Zyi'x

•yi

y>

PoZyi'+PiZyi'+p2Zyi'+p3Zyi'+p4Zyi'+p5Zyi'' = Z y i S i

PoZyi'+P.Zyi '+p2Zyi'^p3Zyi'^4Zyi '+p5Zyi'° = Z y i ' X yi

The coefficients ofthe above equafions are calculated in Table 5-3 and Table 5-4.

i

20

Table 5-3

ZXi i

90

i

440

Coefficients ofthe Polynomial Regression Matrix

ZXi i

2274

l y i ^ i

12200

i

67170

Zyi i

376760

i

2142594

Zyi i

1.2E+07

v- 10 Zyi i

71340450

Table 5-4 Coefficients ofthe Polynomial Regression Constant Vectors

X j y

Xpy

^ry

Xfy

Z^yi 1

3.2504

1.2238

1.0723

0.7873

ZyiXyi 1

12.2932

4.5668

4.1113

3.0455

2 Zyi Xyi

1

52.6672

19.3464

17.7871

13.3309

Zy i Xyi 1

247.195

90.062

83.9365

63.7667

4 Z y i Xyi

1

1235.37

447.65

420.296

323.869

Z y i Xyi 1

6445.27

2327.71

2192.14

1712.82

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By first substitufing the coefficients into the set of equations, and then solving the

simultaneous equafions, the regression coefficients are calculated as in Table 5-5.

Table 5-5 The Regression Coefficients

Xjy

Xpy

X y

X,y

Po 2.0027089

0.6534264

0.8548462

0.3803794

P. -1.0711966

-0.2952670

-0.5500589

-0.1745536

P2 0.2833622

0.0750380

0.1507052

0.0451868

P3 -0.0246386

-0.0065606

-0.0130998

-0.0038569

P4 -0.0000002

-0.0000017

-0.0000001

0.0000023

P5 -0.0000000

-0.0000001

-0.0000000

0.0000001

The regression equations are

Xjy = 2.0027089 -1.0711966y + 0.2833622y^ - 0.0246386y^

-0.0000002y'* -O.OOOOOOOy

Xpy =0.6534264-0.2952670y + 0.0750380y^ -0.0065606y^

-0.0000017y'* -O.OOOOOOly

Xrv=0.8548462-0.5500589y + 0.1507052y^-0.0130998y^

- 0.000000 ly"* - O.OOOOOOOy

x^ = 0.3803794- 0.1745536y + 0.0451868y^ - 0.0038569y-

+ 0.0000023y'* + 0.000000 ly^

where, Xy-the failure frequency

y-the year index, for 1992, y=2; for 1993, y=3; ..., for 1999, y=9.

The calculated results using the above regression equations are listed in Table 5-6.

The regression curve for total failure frequency, pump failure frequency, rod failure

frequency and tubing failure frequency are shown on Fig 5-5.

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Year

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

Table 5-6 Results of Regression Anah;

y

2

3

4

5

6

7

Xjy

0.796653

0.674121

0.674796

0.650831

0.454372

-0.06244

Xpy

0.310529

0.265669

0.25255

0.231591

0.163122

0.007371

Xry

0.252749

0.207314

0.227481

0.234644

0.150194

-0.10448

sis

Xty

0.181204

0.159474

0.159003

0.156919

0.130451

0.056944

From Fig 5-5. it can be observed that the prediction for 1997 is not correct. This is

because the data for 1996 is incomplete. This section is presented to show the statistical

analysis method.

(A .2 'o c o 3 o

o _3

u. •D O M (0 O

O)

oc

-0.1

Year

Fig 5-5. Regression Curves of Failure Frequencies

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5.4 Summary

The main points in this chapter are

• Stafistical techniques are applicable to the analysis of sucker rod pumping s> stem

failures; This chapter presented the necessary tools to do statistical analysis

• The provided data are incomplete, further study should be made in the ftiture, and

according to different companies, ^--distribution and t-distribution should be used

• With the provided data, the statistical analysis shows that the average total failure

frequency is 0.66 per well per year in the Permian Basin; the pump failure

frequency is 0.25 per well per year; the rod failure frequency is 0.22 per well per

year; and the tubing failure frequency is 0.16 per well per year.

• If the ratio of costs to repair unit pump, rod and tubing is 2:1:3, from the above

failure frequencies it can be seen that in the Permian Basin the expenses allotted to

repair of pump, rod and tubing would be 0.50:0.22:0.48. This means that we

should put more emphasis on pump and tubing during design and operation.

• Later work may be focused on failure prediction and find the cause of failures and

direct decision making.

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CHAPTER 6

CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS

Through this study, the following conclusions and suggestions may be presented:

1. The research project. Artificial Lift Energy Optimizafion Consortium (ALEOC), is

the sponsor to join the consortium members together to share successes and failures in

producfion operations and finally to cut operafing costs and extend economic limits of

wells.

2. Consortium members of ALEOC come from the Permian Basin, which is one ofthe

largest petroleum production areas in the United States. An idea of what is going on

with the sucker rod pumping system in the Permian Basin will help oil companies to

make right decisions.

3. Wasson San Andres field is one the top old fields and among the most complex in the

Permian Basin. Denver City Unit is the largest of all the units in Wasson field and

among all the San Andres units. Trace the history of Denver City Unit will help us in

analyzing the failures in that area.

4. Denver City Unit mainly produces oil from the San Andres formation (4700 to 7300

ft. deep, averaging 5200 ft.). Main Pay possesses the most favorable reservoirs and

porosity development. Water flood began in 1964, resulted in peak production,

150,000 BOPD, in 1975. CO2 injection began in mid-1984, and maintained the steady

production thereafter. Denver Unit Water-Altemating-Gas injection process has the

advantages over both continuous CO2 injection and WAG process. 7-in. casing has

higher lift efficiency. During the 1980s, the beam pumping units were mainly API

640's and 456's. The average run fime between failures was approximately 15

months. In recent years sucker rod pumping failures have decreased gradually.

5. The data provided by 11 oil companies came from about 25,000 wells, a quarter of

the total sucker rod pumping well numbers in the Permian Basin. This is a big and

reliable sample group from the population in the Permian Basin. The databases were

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first pretreated from Access files or Excel files to the generalized Excel data file: with

data sorting, reorganized the data according their company, field, location, formation

and depth. Failure frequencies for total, pump, rod, and tubing w ere calculated to

make them more comparable. According to the sorted failure frequencies, failure

frequency plots were made to make them more straightforward.

6. Observations ofthe failure data and plots revealed that different companies have \ery

different failure frequencies, which is an index of field operation efficienc\. facility

manipulation, underground working conditions ofthe sucker rod pumping equipment;

there is a trend of failure frequency decrease among the participated companies \\ ith a

few exceptions.

7. Fault Tree Analysis can be successfully applied to failure analysis ofthe sucker rod

pumping system. It is feasible of guide operations and decision making, and direct

other techniques of fault diagnosis.

8. Sucker rod pumping s>'stem vulnerable to failure, failure of any component may

result in complete failure ofthe whole system. Pay attention to the reliability of e\ery

component.

9. From the analysis ofthe available data, downhole pump has the highest probabilit}' to

fail because of its multi-moving parts characteristics and least favorable conditions.

Intensive study of pump working principles and design of new downhole pumps are

necessary.

10. Tubing has a fairly high failure frequency, more work should be done on load and

motion ofthe tubing string.

11. Current sucker rod design has some imperfections, more attention should be put on

the design of polished rod, y4-rod body. 7/8-rod box and 7/8-rod pin.

12. Statistical analysis techniques are applicable to the stud}' of sucker rod pumping

system failures. The necessar> tools are normal distribution, //-distribution, t-

distribution, and the statistical parameters, mean, variance, standard deviation.

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Page 167: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

13. The provided data are not complete, further study should be made in the future.

According to different companies, x'-distribution and t-distribution may be used to fit

the failure distributions.

14. With the provided data, the statistical analysis shows that the average total failure

frequency is 0.66 per well per year, the pump failure frequency is 0.25 per well per

year, rod frequency is 0.22 per well per year, and tubing failure frequency is 0.16 per

well per year in the Permian Basin. For economic consideration, pump and tubing

should be put more emphasis during design and utilization.

15. Later work may be focused on to complete the databases; find the failure causes;

make failure predictions; and direct decision making.

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REFERENCES

1. Petroleum Engineering, TTU, Newsletter, Volume 4. No. 1, Spring 1996.

2. Walter Rundell, Jr., Oil in West Texas and New Mexico, Texas A&M Universit\' Press, College Station, 1982, p.2.

3. West Texas Geological Society, Permian Basin Oil and Gas Fields, Fall Symposium, Publication No. 96-101, Oct. 31- Nov. I, 1996, p.8.

4. West Texas Geological Society. Inc., Synergy Equals Energy—Teams. Tools, and Techniques, Publication No. 94-94, Oct. 31-Nov. 1, 1994, p. 102.

5. National Petroleum Bibliography, Petroleum Exploration & Development Map— Permian Basin, 1963.

6. M. H. Holtz et al.. Geological and Engineering Assessment of Remaining Oil in a Mature Carbonate Reservoir: An Example From the Permian Basin, West Texas. (SPE 27687)

7. W. K. Ghauri, Production Technology Experience in a Large Carbonate Waterflood, Denver Unit, Wasson San Andres Field. (SPE 8406)

8. C. S. Tanner et al.. Production Performance ofthe Wasson Denver COj Flood. (SPE/DOE 24156)

9. West Texas Geological Society, Oil & Gas Fields In West Texas, Volume VII. 1996, pp.128, 198-206.

10. C. E. Foxet et al.. The Denver Unit CO2 Flood Transforms Former Waterflood Injectors into Oil Producers. (SPE 27674)

11. E.A. Fleming et al., Overview of Producfion Engineering Aspects of Operating the Denver Unit C02 Flood. (SPE/DOE 24157)

12. G.F. Lu et al.. Geological Distribution and Forecast Models of Infill Drilling Oil Recovery for Permian Basin Carbonate Reservoirs. (SPE 26503)

13. U.S. Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administrafion. and Nafional Mine Health and Safety Academy. Fault Tree Analysis, revised 1991, Washington, DC.

14. Alan H. Woodyard, Risk Analysis of Well Complefion Systems, SPE 9414, April, 1982.

15. Robert M. Bethea et al., Statisfical Methods for Engineers and Scienfists, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 1985.

155

Page 169: STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF SUCKER ROD PUMPING A THESIS IN

16. A. Hald, Stafistical Theory with Engineering Applications, John Wile\ & Sons, Inc., New York, 1952.

17. Stuart L. Meyer, Data Analysis for Scientists and Engineers, John \\^ile\ & Sons, Inc., New York, 1975.

18. Databases from 11 Oil Companies.

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iZytl.—^

student's Signature' Date

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Student's Signature Date