Statistics and forecastThis is quarterly edition of statistics and forecasts for the Wind Power Market, covering data from

turbine manufacturers and wind power developers acting on the Swedish market (estimated

coverage is 100 percent respectively 95 percent of the total Swedish market)

Q3 2017

Svensk Vindenergi – Swedish Energy Association, SWEA

2017-10-10

• The statistics are based on the order books of the turbine manufacturers and

project portfolios of the wind power developers presented at aggregated level

• The forecast consists of three future scenarios (low, base, high). They are based

on assumptions regarding which projects will be realized - considering today’s

market situation and the future’s.

• Low case: Only projects where turbine contracts (firm and unconditional) have been signed

will be realized. In this scenario no further investment decisions are made, hence this

scenario defines the lower limit of wind power growth in Sweden.

• Base case: Projects with signed turbine contracts, approximately 15 percent of permitted

projects and 5 percent of projects under permission process will be realized. This is the most

realistic scenario and is the official forecast.

• High case: Projects with signed turbine contracts, around 25 percent of permitted projects

and 10 percent of projects under permission process will be realized. This scenario may be

relevant in circumstances leading to higher electricity and green certificate prices and sets

the ceiling for growth of wind power in Sweden.

The statistics and forecast

Total by the end of 2016Turbines: 3 378

Capacity: 6 495 MW

Actual production: 15,4 TWh *

Annual production (estimated): 16,7 TWh **

Added capacity in 2017 (forecast)1st quarter: 23,1 MW

2nd quarter: 0,0 MW

3rd quarter: 77,2 MW

4th quarter: 126,2 MW

Total: 226,5 MW

Total by the end of 2017 (forecast)Turbines: 3 452

Capacity: 6 721 MW

Actual production: 17,1 TWh *

Annual production (estimated): 17,3 TWh **

Installations in 2017

* Actual production is the real production and

depends on wind conditions and when

installations are made during the year.

** Estimated annual production is the annual

production the turbines are expected to

produce when in operation during a whole year

with normal wind condittions.

Project portfolio, status by 2017-09-30

** Estimations

**

**

*

* Firm and unconditional turbine order based on investment decisions

( 26 )

( 77 )

(-19)

( -52)

Change Q2In operation Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 3 339 74 3 413

Capacity (MW) 6 406 190 6 595

Under construction Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 339 339

Capacity (MW) 1 103 1 103

Permitted Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 2 385 453 2 838

Capacity (MW) 7 549 2 017 9 566

In permission process Onshore Offshore Total

Windturbines 2 926 275 3 201

Capacity (MW) 9 267 925 10 192

In operation

Permitted

In permitting process

Source: Vindbrukskollen.se

Geographical spread

Rejected

Project status

New turbine contracts (firm and binding)

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

275

106

248

50

221

115

189

2551 49 63

160

66

273

2

635

250

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q3 2

01

3

Q4 2

01

3

Q1 2

01

4

Q2 2

01

4

Q3 2

01

4

Q4 2

01

4

Q1 2

01

5

Q2 2

01

5

Q3 2

01

5

Q4 2

01

5

Q1 2

01

6

Q2 2

01

6

Q3 2

01

6

Q4 2

01

6

Q1 2

01

7

Q2 2

01

7

Q3 2

01

7

New turbine contracts (capacity) Mean value last 12 month

MW

Order books

Time plan according to turbine manufacturers for wind power installations

during year (MW) *

2016 2017

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

(Tot)

2018 2019

468 23 0 77 126 227 609 368

* Figures from all turbine manufacturers acting on the Swedish market

Status as of 2017-09-30

MW

Installed capacity by price area 2020-12-31 (base case)

561

2383

2053

1598

409

383

294

16

235

334

119

111

11

170

76

41

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SE1 SE2 SE3 SE4

Permission process

Permitted

Under construction

In operation

Wind power production 2017 (forecast)

TWh

31/12-16 31/3 30/6 30/9 31/12-17

Actual and forecast

15,416,4

17,6 17,3 17,1

4,8

8,6

11,8

17,1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Production last 52 weeks

Cumulative production

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

High case

Base case

Low case

Wind power production – different scenarios

TWh

Actual and forecast

Increased uncertainty

As of 31/12

As of 31/12

Actual and forecast

Base caseThis scenario is the most realistic and official forecast of Svensk Vindenergi

Increased uncertaintyIncreased uncertainty

61007160

9900

11450

1660015500

1708018123

20007

22086

28993743

43825425

6029,2 6495 67217353

80178794

2039 2403 2663 3048 3233 3378 3452 3606 3813 4042

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Annual production[GWh]

Cumulative capacity atend year [MW]

Cumulative installedwind turbines

Assumptions

Part of wind power project portfolio capacity expected to be realized within

given time frame depending on scenario (approximate figures)

Status High Base ** Low

Under construction 100 % 100 % 95 %

Permitted * 25 % 15 % 0 %

In permission process * 10 % 5 % 0 %

Only onshore wind power are expected to be built.

The base case reflects a possible scenario based on an assessment of current and future market conditions.

*

**

Follow up

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Actual

Q4 2012

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

Previous forecasts and actual installed wind power capacity

MW

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Actual

Actual(normal year)

Q4 2012

Q4 2013

Q4 2014

Q4 2015

Previous forecasts and actual wind power production

TWh

Follow up