Statistics Without TearsStatistics Without Tears

The topic of this unit is statistics. Many degree The topic of this unit is statistics. Many degree courses involve some knowledge of statistics, courses involve some knowledge of statistics, either because statistics are often quoted in either because statistics are often quoted in academic texts, or because students have to academic texts, or because students have to work with statistics for their academic work with statistics for their academic assignments. Also, statistics are often used by assignments. Also, statistics are often used by governments and other organizations to make governments and other organizations to make decisions which can affect all of our lives. From decisions which can affect all of our lives. From this point of view, some understanding to what it this point of view, some understanding to what it means to think statistically should be useful to means to think statistically should be useful to everyone.everyone.

This unit will give you practice in:This unit will give you practice in:

1. reading to acquire knowledge;1. reading to acquire knowledge;

2. distinguishing between main and minor 2. distinguishing between main and minor points in a text;points in a text;

3. summarizing information from short 3. summarizing information from short sections of a text.sections of a text.

Pre-reading task: Statistics in practicePre-reading task: Statistics in practice 1. Discuss the following questions in groups. Do you agree on 1. Discuss the following questions in groups. Do you agree on

the answers?the answers?

a) John works in an office. On Monday, he arrived at work at a) John works in an office. On Monday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. On Tuesday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. nine o’clock. On Tuesday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. On Wednesday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. On On Wednesday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. On Thursday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. What time do you Thursday, he arrived at work at nine o’clock. What time do you think he arrived on Friday? Why?think he arrived on Friday? Why?

b) Your friend wants to show you a magic trick. He tosses a b) Your friend wants to show you a magic trick. He tosses a coin three times, and each time it falls to the ground with heads coin three times, and each time it falls to the ground with heads facing up. As he goes to toss the coin again, he ask you, facing up. As he goes to toss the coin again, he ask you, Do Do you think it will be heads again?you think it will be heads again? and you say and you say NoNo, but when he , but when he tosses the coin, it is heads. He tosses the coin twice more, and tosses the coin, it is heads. He tosses the coin twice more, and each time it is heads again. You pick up the coin and look at each time it is heads again. You pick up the coin and look at both sides carefully. What do you expect to see? Why?both sides carefully. What do you expect to see? Why?

2. 2. Are youAre you sure you have sure you have givengiven the correct answers, or could the correct answers, or could you be wrong? Is it possible to be absolutely sure about such you be wrong? Is it possible to be absolutely sure about such predictions? Why ? Why not?predictions? Why ? Why not?

Section 1Section 1

In the discussion tasks you have just In the discussion tasks you have just completed, you used your everyday completed, you used your everyday knowledge of the world to make judgments knowledge of the world to make judgments about what things are likely or unlikely to about what things are likely or unlikely to be true, in order to make a prediction be true, in order to make a prediction about the current situation. This is an about the current situation. This is an example of everyday statistical thinking. example of everyday statistical thinking. The text you are going to read looks at The text you are going to read looks at what it means to think statistically in order what it means to think statistically in order to make predictions. to make predictions.

1. The first section you are going to read is called 1. The first section you are going to read is called Making Making Sense of ExperienceSense of Experience. Read it and tell which of the . Read it and tell which of the following are main points (main) and which are minor following are main points (main) and which are minor points or examples (minor)? Discuss your answers with the points or examples (minor)? Discuss your answers with the rest of the class.rest of the class.

a) We are naturally observant of things around us.a) We are naturally observant of things around us. b) Our observations often involve counting or measuring b) Our observations often involve counting or measuring things.things. c) our observations may concern how big something is.c) our observations may concern how big something is. d) Sometimes our observations concern a single thing.d) Sometimes our observations concern a single thing. e) Sometimes our observations concerns several things.e) Sometimes our observations concerns several things. f) Observations may be made about a crop in a field.f) Observations may be made about a crop in a field. g) We tend to look for connections among the things we g) We tend to look for connections among the things we have observed.have observed.

2. Look at the writer’s question in the 2. Look at the writer’s question in the last paragraph of section 1. Write down last paragraph of section 1. Write down what you think the answer is one or two what you think the answer is one or two sentences. Compare your ideas with sentences. Compare your ideas with the rest of the class.the rest of the class.

Words Words (section 1)(section 1) caution: the quality of using great core and attecaution: the quality of using great core and atte

ntion, esp.in order to avoid danger ntion, esp.in order to avoid danger 小心，谨慎，小心，谨慎，慎重慎重

endanger: to cause danger to endanger: to cause danger to 使遭危害，危及使遭危害，危及 generalisation: a general statement that is basegeneralisation: a general statement that is base

d on only a few facts of examples; the act of md on only a few facts of examples; the act of making such statementsaking such statements

概括概括 , , 归纳归纳 generalise: to form a general principle, opinion, generalise: to form a general principle, opinion,

etc, after considering only a small number of thetc, after considering only a small number of the factse facts 概括，作出判断，归纳概括，作出判断，归纳

inquisitiveinquisitive ：： trying to find out (too many dtrying to find out (too many details about things or people)etails about things or people) 过分好问的；过分好问的；好追根究底的好追根究底的

inquisitively: with curiosityinquisitively: with curiosity 过分好问地；好过分好问地；好追根究底地追根究底地

intuitive: showing or formed by intuitionintuitive: showing or formed by intuition 有有直觉力的；凭直觉获知的直觉力的；凭直觉获知的

intuitively: in an intuitive mannerintuitively: in an intuitive manner 有直觉力有直觉力地；凭直觉获知地地；凭直觉获知地

jargon: difficult or strange language which jargon: difficult or strange language which uses words known only to the members of uses words known only to the members of a certain groupa certain group （难懂的）行话（难懂的）行话

prevalence: the condition of being prevaleprevalence: the condition of being prevalentnt 普遍，盛行，流行普遍，盛行，流行

probability: the state of being probable or tprobability: the state of being probable or the degree to which something is probable; he degree to which something is probable; likelihoodlikelihood 可能性可能性

statistical: relating to statisticsstatistical: relating to statistics 统计的统计的 statistics: the science of dealing with and estatistics: the science of dealing with and e

xplaining a collection of numbers xplaining a collection of numbers 统计学统计学

CollocationsCollocations

Make sense of=to understand Make sense of=to understand 理解理解 Gain control over sth. Gain control over sth. 控制……控制…… Involve sb. in sth. Involve sb. in sth. 使……做……使……做…… Rough-and-ready fashion Rough-and-ready fashion 权宜之计权宜之计 In terms of In terms of 以……为单位，就……而言以……为单位，就……而言 Make observations about sth./on sb. Make observations about sth./on sb. 观察关观察关

于……于…… // 观察……观察…… Size of the potato-crop Size of the potato-crop 土豆产量土豆产量 Over a succession of years Over a succession of years 连续的几年连续的几年 A collection of observations=data A collection of observations=data 观察的收集观察的收集

Revision 1:Revision 1: Make sense of: Make sense of: 搞清……的意思搞清……的意思 To somebody’s advantage: To somebody’s advantage: 对某人有利对某人有利 In rough-and-ready fashion: In rough-and-ready fashion: 以潦草的方以潦草的方

式式 A succession of : A succession of : 一连串一连串

Section 2Section 2

VitalVital generalizegeneralize Jump to conclusionJump to conclusion Be cautious about sth.Be cautious about sth. Feel inclined to do sth.Feel inclined to do sth.

Section 3 Section 3

Summarizing the key pointsSummarizing the key points

Use a word or phrase from the box below Use a word or phrase from the box below and put the correct number in each gap in and put the correct number in each gap in the sentences which follow.the sentences which follow.

section3.docsection3.doc

Section 3Section 3 duedue 用法用法 11 表示“到期的”、“应付表示“到期的”、“应付 (( 给给 )) 的”、“到期应付的”，通常只用作的”、“到期应付的”，通常只用作

表语。如：表语。如： The bill is due. The bill is due. 这张票据已到期。这张票据已到期。 My salary is due tomorrow. My salary is due tomorrow. 我明天领薪。我明天领薪。 表示应付给或应给予某人，通常与介词 表示应付给或应给予某人，通常与介词 to to 连用。如：连用。如： A great deal of money is due to you. A great deal of money is due to you. 要付给你一大笔钱。要付给你一大笔钱。 Respect is due to older people. Respect is due to older people. 年长者应受到尊重。年长者应受到尊重。 Our grateful thanks are due to you. Our grateful thanks are due to you. 我们衷心感谢你。我们衷心感谢你。 duedue 用法用法 22 表示“预定的”、“约定的”、“预定要到达或发生的”，也通常表示“预定的”、“约定的”、“预定要到达或发生的”，也通常

用作表语。如：用作表语。如： When is the train due? When is the train due? 火车什么时候到火车什么时候到 ? ? I’m due for a pay rise soon. I’m due for a pay rise soon. 我不久就要加薪了。我不久就要加薪了。 其后可接不定式。如其后可接不定式。如 :: The guests are due to arrive very soon. The guests are due to arrive very soon. 客人很快就会到。客人很快就会到。 The meeting isn’t due to start until four. The meeting isn’t due to start until four. 会议预定要到四点才召会议预定要到四点才召

开。开。

duedue 用法用法 33 表示“适当的”、“合适的”、“应得的”，通常只放在表示“适当的”、“合适的”、“应得的”，通常只放在

名词前作定语。如：名词前作定语。如： We should pay due attention to this problem. We should pay due attention to this problem. 我们应我们应

对这个问题给予适当的注意。对这个问题给予适当的注意。 You must put these things in due order. You must put these things in due order. 你必须把这你必须把这

些东西按适当的顺序放好。些东西按适当的顺序放好。 duedue 用法用法 44 用于 用于 due to(due to( 由于，因为由于，因为 )) 。按照传统语法 。按照传统语法 due to due to 主要主要

引导表语，一般不引导状语。如：引导表语，一般不引导状语。如： His absence was due to the storm. His absence was due to the storm. 他因暴风雨而缺席。他因暴风雨而缺席。 Her success was due to her hard work. Her success was due to her hard work. 她成功是因为她成功是因为

她努力工作。她努力工作。 但是在现代英语中，但是在现代英语中， due to due to 也可用来引导状语。如：也可用来引导状语。如： He was late due to the very heavy traffic. He was late due to the very heavy traffic. 由于交通拥由于交通拥

挤他迟到了。挤他迟到了。

Section3 (continued)Section3 (continued)

As forAs for Let aloneLet alone In such-and-such a wayIn such-and-such a way

section4section4

in the long run in the long run make estimates or predictions make estimates or predictions

Section 5Section 5 1.1. a set of a set of 一组一套；．批一组一套；．批 2.2. apply to apply to 应用于应用于 3.3. detergent n a cleansing agent that differs from s detergent n a cleansing agent that differs from s

oap but can also emulsify oils and hold dirt in suspensioap but can also emulsify oils and hold dirt in suspension on 洗涤剂，洗洁精洗涤剂，洗洁精

4.4. genetics n the study of how living things develop genetics n the study of how living things develop according to the effects of those substances passed oaccording to the effects of those substances passed on in the cells from the parents n in the cells from the parents 遗传学遗传学

5.5. humanities n studies such as ancient and modern humanities n studies such as ancient and modern literature, history, etc.; the arts literature, history, etc.; the arts 人文学科人文学科

6.6. meteorology n [U] the scientific study of weather meteorology n [U] the scientific study of weather conditions conditions 气象学气象学

7.7. pottery n [u] pots and other objects made out of pottery n [u] pots and other objects made out of baked claybaked clay 陶，陶器陶，陶器

8.8. pursuit n [c] an activity which one gives o pursuit n [c] an activity which one gives one's time, whether as work or for pleasurene's time, whether as work or for pleasure

事务，工作，活动事务，工作，活动 9.9. quantitative adj of or about quantity quantitative adj of or about quantity ／／ amoamo

untunt （数）量的（数）量的 10.10. refer to refer to 提到，说起；参考，有关，针对提到，说起；参考，有关，针对 11.11. statistically adv. with respect to statistics statistically adv. with respect to statistics

统计学上统计学上 12.12. take note take note 记录记录 ;; 记笔记记笔记 13.13. to o degree to o degree 有点儿，稍微，多少有些有点儿，稍微，多少有些 14.14. ubiquitous adj. (esp. of something that i ubiquitous adj. (esp. of something that i

s not liked or approved of) appearing, happenins not liked or approved of) appearing, happening, or existing everywhereg, or existing everywhere （尤指不喜欢或反对的（尤指不喜欢或反对的事物）无处不在的，普遍存在的事物）无处不在的，普遍存在的

radioradio carboncarbon dating dating 放辐性碳年代测定法放辐性碳年代测定法 ;;碳元素年代测定法碳元素年代测定法

Exercises 1Exercises 1 1. Choose a word from the following list 1. Choose a word from the following list

to complete each sentence below. Be to complete each sentence below. Be sure to use the correct form of the sure to use the correct form of the word.word.

1) 1)

Caution endanger generalize intuitive jargon prevalence probability statistical

1) The survey showed the ________ of deafness in 1) The survey showed the ________ of deafness in older age group.older age group.

2) If unemployment continues to rise, social stability 2) If unemployment continues to rise, social stability may be _________.may be _________.

3) In rock climbing, no amount of skill will make up 3) In rock climbing, no amount of skill will make up for a lack of _________.for a lack of _________.

4) The ________of catching the disease from your 4) The ________of catching the disease from your partner is extremely low.partner is extremely low.

5) The study group was very small, and it’s hard to 5) The study group was very small, and it’s hard to _________from just a few cases._________from just a few cases.

6) When you first learn about computers, there is a 6) When you first learn about computers, there is a whole lot of ___________ to understand.whole lot of ___________ to understand.

7) Women are supposed to be more ____________ 7) Women are supposed to be more ____________ than men, but I don’t know if that’s true.than men, but I don’t know if that’s true.

8) We need _____________ evidence to support the 8) We need _____________ evidence to support the theory.theory.

2. Translation task2. Translation task 1) 1) 我们必须特别谨慎行事。我们必须特别谨慎行事。 22 ）我们可以从我们研究的实例中作出判断。）我们可以从我们研究的实例中作出判断。 33 ）如果我们现在不处理这个问题，它再次）如果我们现在不处理这个问题，它再次

出现的可能性很大。出现的可能性很大。 44 ）怀孕期间吸烟可能危及到孩子的健康。）怀孕期间吸烟可能危及到孩子的健康。 55 ）她天生有一种判断人能力的本事。）她天生有一种判断人能力的本事。

Answers:Answers:1.1. 1) prevalence 2) endangered 3) caution1) prevalence 2) endangered 3) caution4) probability 5) generalize 6) jargon4) probability 5) generalize 6) jargon7) intuitive 8) statistical7) intuitive 8) statistical2. 2. 1)1) We must proceed with extreme caution.We must proceed with extreme caution.2)2) We can generalize from the example that we have sWe can generalize from the example that we have s

tudied.tudied.3)3) There is a strong probability that the problem will rThere is a strong probability that the problem will r

ecur if we do not deal with it now.ecur if we do not deal with it now.4)4) Smoking during pregnancy can endanger your babSmoking during pregnancy can endanger your bab

y’s health.y’s health.5)5) She had an intuitive ability to size up people’s capShe had an intuitive ability to size up people’s cap

abilities.abilities.