status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development ...status and outlook for shale gas and...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S.
for Platts – North American Crude Marketing Conference March 01, 2013 | Houston, TX by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 projections to 2040
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• Growth in energy production outstrips consumption growth
• Crude oil production rises sharply over the next decade
• Motor gasoline consumption reflects more stringent fuel economy standards
• The U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the early 2020s
• U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level through 2040
U.S. energy use grows slowly over the projection reflecting improving energy efficiency and slow, extended economic recovery
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U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013
History Projections 2011
36%
20%
26%
8% 8%
1%
32%
28%
19%
11%
9% 2%
Shares of total U.S. energy
Nuclear
Oil and other liquids
Liquid biofuels
Natural gas
Coal
Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels)
2000
23%
39%
24%
6% 8%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
U.S. Shale Gas
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Theory Experiment Practice
These three drivers impact resource estimation metrics differently over time in an iterative process
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Geology
Technology
Economics
Resources in Place
Technically Recoverable Resources (TRR)
Economically Recoverable Resources (ERR)
Well-level data, incl. estimated ultimate recovery (EUR)
Thermal maturity Pressure Formation depth
Drilling costs Recompletions
Price of gas
P
Q
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• average initial production (IP) rate per well
• average decline curve (can vary by region and vintage)
• IP & decline curve define the Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) per well
Other parameters
• drilling and operating costs
• number of active rigs
• how many wells a rig can drill (rig efficiency)
• well spacing
EIA’s focus is on the timing of production; the modeling focuses on these parameters
Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect new information, a combination of assessments and EIA updates
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U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release AEO Edition
2,327
304
543
1,479
*Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation.
Unproved shale gas Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) Proved reserves (all types and locations)
Benchmark to USGS
2011 Marcellus Assessment
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U.S. wet natural gas proved reserves, 1980-2010
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trillion cubic feet
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
U.S. Total
Lower 48 Onshore
Federal Offshore
Alaska
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EIA fits well production data to hyperbolic decline curves to estimate EUR
1985 vertical well
EUR=1.41 bcf
2004 vertical well EUR=0.46 bcf
2011 horizontal well EUR=1.76 bcf
( ) b1
tDb1QQ
i
it ××+=
Classic hyperbolic decline curve (Arps 1945):
Source: HPDI data from horizontal wells in the Newark East field in the Barnett Shale; EIA analysis
An average well in shale gas and other continuous resource plays can also have steep decline curves, which require continued drilling to grow production
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million cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
1
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For example: Oil production by monthly vintage of wells in the Williston Basin
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Source: DrillingInfo history through August 2012, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013 forecast
Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013
Domestic production of shale gas has grown dramatically over the past few years
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shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day
Sources: LCI Energy Insight gross withdrawal estimates as of January 2013 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
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Shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040
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U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Associated with oil Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
Alaska
Non-associated onshore
Non-associated offshore
Projections History 2011
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U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History
Industrial*
Electric power
Commercial
Residential
Transportation**
33%
14%
6%
32%
12%
33%
19%
3%
31%
13%
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel.
Gas to liquids 2%
Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed with electric power, industrial, and transportation use driving future demand growth
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Growth of natural gas in transportation led by heavy duty trucks (LNG) and gas to liquids (diesel)… marine and rail to come?
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U.S. natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu
Pipeline fuel
Light-duty vehicles
2011 History Projections
95%
3%
1%
1%
28%
38%
3%
31%
1% Buses
Freight trucks
Gas to liquids
Note: Gas to liquids includes heat, power, and losses. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
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Total natural gas exports nearly quadruple by 2040 in the AEO2013 Reference case
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U.S. natural gas exports trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Alaska LNG exports
Exports to Mexico
Exports to Canada
Lower 48 LNG exports
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Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption and the U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas around 2020
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U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History 2011
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports
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U.S. Tight Oil
18 Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013
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U.S. crude oil and lease condensate resources in non-prohibited areas billion barrels
(1) The USGS reduced NPR-A resource estimates, which is responsible for the lower AEO2013 Alaska resources. (2) Prior to AEO2009, resources in Pacific, Atlantic, and Eastern GOM OCS were under moratoria and not included. (3) Includes shale oil. Prior to AEO2011, tight oil is included in unproved other lower-48 onshore category.
Multiple factors have contributed to U.S. crude oil resource estimate increases over the years, with tight oil contributing recently
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
23.8
48.6
41.6
16.5
67.0
25.2
222.6
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U.S. crude oil plus condensate proved reserves, 1980-2010
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billion barrels
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
U.S. Total
Lower 48 Onshore
Federal Offshore
Alaska
Domestic production of tight oil has grown dramatically over the past few years
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tight oil production for select plays million barrels per day
Source: Drilling Info (formerly HPDI), Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through October 2012.
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U.S. tight oil production leads a growth in domestic production of 2.6 million barrels per day between 2008 and 2019
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U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release and Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2013
0
2
4
6
8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Projections History 2011
Alaska
Tight oil
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
STEO Feb. 2013 U.S. crude oil projection
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U.S. petroleum product exports exceeded imports in 2011 for first time in over six decades
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annual U.S. net exports of total petroleum products, 1949 – 2011 million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Petroleum Supply Monthly
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 2009
imports
exports
net exports
net product exporter
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U.S. dependence on imported liquids depends on both supply and demand
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U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports 45%
37%
Projections History 2011
60%
2005
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Light-duty vehicle liquids consumption is lower primarily due to more stringent CAFE standards
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light-duty vehicle liquids consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
AEO2012
AEO2013
Reference case oil price initially drops and then rises steadily, but there is uncertainty about the future trajectory
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Annual average spot price of Brent crude oil 2011 dollars per barrel
Projections History 2011
High Oil Price
Low Oil Price
Reference
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
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Global liquids supply increases 26 percent with regional market shares relatively stable
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Global liquids supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release
Projections History 2011
OPEC
Other non-OECD
OECD
44%
25%
31%
40%
26%
34%
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Global tight oil production comparisons
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Source: Preliminary International Energy Outlook 2013, BP Energy Outlook 2030
million barrels per day
BP Energy Outlook 2030 IEO2013 DRAFT
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Uncertainties that could slow global growth of shale gas and tight oil
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• Resource quantities and distribution
• Surface vs. mineral rights
• Risk appetite of industry participants
• Infrastructure and technology
• Environmental constraints
Changing electricity generation mix in AEO2012 reference case and carbon fee allowance side cases
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U.S. electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Natural gas
2012 Reference Case $15 Carbon Fee $25 Carbon Fee
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Natural gas Natural gas
Renewables
Renewables Nuclear
Nuclear Coal
Coal
2010
24%
10%
20%
45%
28%
15%
18%
38%
34%
22%
27%
16%
34%
23%
38%
4%
Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013
For more information
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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo
Today In Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly
Annual Energy Review | www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual
Adam Sieminski , Platts, March 01, 2013