status of lfp industry and market in china & its … · readiness to support the transport...
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Status of LFP industry and market in China & its
readiness to support the transport electrification
Xiaoyu ZHANG, SynPLi Consulting
Email: [email protected]
Agenda
Up-stream: LFP in China
• LIB market: LIB for xEV application
• Key LIB players assessment
Mid-stream: LIB in China
• Key LIB players assessment
• xEV market
• Policy and strategy trend of main OEMs
Down-stream: transport electrification
Conclusions and outlook
Up-stream: LFP in China
54,000 ton in 2013
LFP in 2013: 3500 ton
Hangsheng
Pylon
Up-stream: LFP in China
17%China
ASSUMPTIONS:
� Portable devices:
2010-2025: +11% per year in volume
� HEV
4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB
6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB
� P-HEV
0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025
100% LIB
� EV
1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025
100% LIB
Cathode active materials in 2025: >
330 000 Tons
Courtesy of Avicenne Energy
More optimistic
Less optimistic
World
Mid-stream: LIB in China
Oceansun
B&K
Gxgk
Veken
Optimum
TCL
Great power
Mcnair
Wisewod
Nalon
Others
World: LIB demand @13CY ( 51,500 MWh)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
LIB business revenues (108 RMB)
Lishen
ATL
BAK
BYD
Coslight
Pr
Po
China LIB supply @13CY ( 17,650 MWh)
Lishen
ATL
BYD
SDI
LG Chem
Panasonic
Sony
Hitachi
AESC
LEJ
Lishen
ATL
BYD
BAK
Coslight
First
Tianmao
AEE
HYB
UTL
Oceansun
Cy Pr Po&La
25,9%
42,9%
27,2%
4,0%
Japan
Korea
China
Others
China LIB demand @13CY: 14000MWh
China LIB export
@13CY: 7%
Courtesy of RealLi Research
0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 1000,00
Cy
Pr BYD
BAK
Coslight
First
Mid-stream: LIB in China
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
China LIB production @13CY (unit: 106 cell)
Jan_Fev Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011
2012
2013
2010-2013 China LIB production (unit: 106 cell)
0100200300
400
Chinese key power LIB players annual production capacity
by 2012 (unit: million Ah)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
2010
36%
12%10%
16%
7%
7%
3%4%
7%
China LIB production @13CY
Guangdong
Guangxi
Tianjin
Jiangsu
Jiangxi
Fujian
Shanghai
Hubei
Others
CompanyBattery size,
battery chemistry routeMarket
Lishen Big, LFP Power tool, E-bike,xEV/ESS
ATL Big, LFP xEV, ESS
BAKBig+Small,
LFP+NMCxEV,E-bike
BYD Big, LFP xEV, ESS
Gxgk Big, LFP xEV
Mid-stream: LIB in China
Gxgk Big, LFP xEV
Optimum Big,LFP xEV
CALB Big, LFP xEV,ESS
Unipower Big, LFP xEV
MGL Big, LMO xEV
Wanxiang Big, LMO+LFP xEV, ESS
AEEnergy Big, LFP+NMC E-bike
Phylion Big, LMO/LFP E-bike, LEV
Mid-stream: LIB in China
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Lishen LP50
BYD C12
Phylion 40Ah
CALB SE180
Energy density of LFP cell in China by 2012 (Wh/Kg)
item Lishen BYD (E6) Wanxiang MGL AESC (GEN1) LG Chem (Volt)
Chemistry LFP LFP LFP LMO+LiNiO2 LMO+LiNiAlO2 LMO+NMC
Battery31.5kWh
94.5Ah/333V
57kwh
180Ah/316.8V
138.7kWh
255Ah/544V
142.2kWh
360Ah/395V
24kWh
66Ah/360V
16kWh
45Ah/355V
Battery weight 446kg 800Kg 1,850kg 1,664kg 280kg 181.4Kg
Cell unit 13.5Ah/3.2V 180Ah/3.3V 15Ah/3.2V 90Ah/3.95V 33.1Ah/3.8V 15Ah/3.7V
Pack Energy density 71Wh/kg 71.3Wh/kg 75Wh/kg 85.5Wh/kg 85.7Wh/kg 88.1Wh/kg
Module
Partner
Miles
LiFetechN/A Enerl
Plugpower
EatonN/A GM, Mitsubishi
Guarantee 8 years 5 years 3 years 3 years 8 years 8 years
4000 RMB/kWh
Module:<100 Wh/kg
2000 RMB/kWh
Cycle: 2000
1500 RMB/kWh
Cycle: 3000
2015 20202012
Roadmap on xEV battery development,
released by China government in 2012
Mid-stream: LIB in China
Module:<100 Wh/kg Cycle: 2000
Module: ≥ 150 Wh/kg
Cycle: 3000
Module: ≥ 300 Wh/kg
By 2015: Max speed of EV/PHEV passenger cars: ≥100Km/h.
EV Range: ≥ 150 km. PHEV range (EV mode): ≥ 50km
2-3 top battery manufactures with production capacity: ≥10 Billion Wh/year
Total funding of 863 program(12th FYP) on xEV/battery : 3 billion RMB
150 million RMB/each
2013-2015
What is China’s situation in the world by 2015 and 2020?
By 2020
If China can realize its planning and objective of battery cost and energy density, it will lead the
world xEV market in the future.
By 2020
Courtesy of Fraunhofer ISI, ABEC 2013
Down-stream: xEV in ChinaBeijing, Jan. 2014
Shanghai, Jan. 2014
Beijing, Jan. 2013
Shanghai, Jan. 2013
Why we need to
develop xEV in
China?
42%
28%
13%
12%
5%
Beijing: major sources for PM2.5 in
heavy polution period (2013.1-2014.2)
ICE
Coal-fired
Industry
Dust
Others
Down-stream: xEV in China
-National demonstration program-25 cities (2009-2012)
Objective: 51,707 units
Reality: 27,415 units
Nanchang
Kunming
Tianjin
Suzhou
Xiamen
Jinan
Tangshan
Changchun
Chengdu
Huhehaote
Xiangyang
Nantong
Objective
Reality
16%
xEV in 25 demo city 2009-2012.8
10495
3305
50
2513
9834
1218
HEV bus
HEV car
FCV
EV bus
Ev car
EV utility
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Hefei
Shenzhen
Beijing
Hangzhou
Changzhutan
Shanghai
Zhengzhou
Dalian
Haikou
Wuhan
Chongqing
Guangzhou
Shenyang
84%
16%
Public
Private
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
Margin
Incentive
ICE bus vs. HEV bus (RMB)
50
Down-stream: xEV in China
2015 2020Pilote
EV+PHEV: 500,000 units EV+PHEV: 5,000,000 units
Large scale
2013
2014Q1
China: EV+PHEV cars sales
PHEV
17%
impossible
10%
China Shandong: 85,600 LEV @12CY
Passenger car
Small truck
China LEV 13CY
>500,000 units
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
2011
2012 EV
EV-QQ
0 500 1000 1500 2000
BYD E6 EV
BYD F3DM PHEV
JAC iEV
BAIC E150 EV
SAIC Roewe E50
Zotye M300 EV
Dongfeng Venucia e30
BYD Qin (PHEV)
BAIC Senova EV
China EV+PHEV cars sales @13CY
83%
84%
Small truck
Beach wargon
Others
1 100 10000 1000000 100000000
2011
2012
2013
China ICE vs. EV+PHEV sales
EV+PHEV
ICE
0.08%
0.07%
0.04%
E-Bus in China
0 200000 400000 600000
2012
2013
Bus sales in China
3.5m<L<7m
7m<L<10m
L>10m
China e-bus sales @13CY (10,112 units)
Yutong
Jinlong
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Yutong
Jinlong
Zhongtong
Ankai
China: 4 main bus OEM sales @13CY
L>10m
7m<L<10m
3.5m<L<7m
Zhongtong
Ankai
China: 4 main bus OEM sales @13CY
Jinlong
Zhongtong
Ankai
Others1 100 10000
Yutong
Jinlong
ZhongtongTotal bus
e-Bus
OEM：：：：Jinlong etc.
Type: HEV
Cell：：：：LP2770112-7.5Ah
System：：：：108S 4P
Voltage：：：：345.6V
Energy：：：：10.4 kWh
OEM：：：：Yutong,etc.
Type: EV bus
Cell：：：： LP2770134-20Ah
System：：：： 16P168S
Voltage：：：：537.6V
Energy：：：：172 kWh
Mileage: 290 miles
Vmax: 70Km/h Courtesy of Lishen, ABEC 2013
Global EV and PHEV in 2013EU: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (72,700units)
PHEV EV
42,4%
16,4%14,1%
10,8%
6,0%Netherland
Norway
France
Germany
United Kingdom
Nissan Leaf
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Toyota Prius PHEV
Mitsubishi i
Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV
Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV Truck
Nissan NMC
Others
Japan: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (32,000 units)
41%
41%
11% Nissan
Mitsubishi
Toyota
Others
US: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (96,300 units)
World EV+PHEV sales @13CY (222,000 units)
Volt PHEV
Leaf EV
Modle S
Prius PHEV
C-Max PHEV
Fusion PHEV
Focus EV
i-MiEV
RAV4 EV
Smart ED
Fiat 500e EV
Fit EV
Spark EV
Accord PHEV
Porche Panamera S E-Hybrid
Cadillac ELR
US: EV+PHEV car sales @13CY (96,300 units)
Jan
Fev
Mar
Apr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
GMNissanTeslaFordToyotaHondaMitsubishiDaimlerFiatVW
Nissan Leaf
Toyota Prius PHEV
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Volvo V60 PHEV
Ford Fusion Energi
Mitsubishi i
Opel Ampera PHEV
Ford Focus Electric
Mitsubishi Minicab MiEV
BYD E6
JAC iEV
7,9%
USA
EU
Japan
China
Others
xEV Charging in China
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
11CY-15CY 16CY-20CY
Charging station planning in China made by
State Grid @10CY400 Charging station and 19,000 charging point by 2013
Planning fixed in 2014:
1,549 Charging station and
From 2014: Fast charging in
priority, followed by slow
charging and battery swapping
State grid strategy
1 10 100 1000 10000
Beijing
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Tianjin
Chongqing
Hangzhou
Charging situation in big cities by 2013
Point
Station
1,549 Charging station and
238,559 charging point by 2015
Passenger cars
Subsidy (103 RMB)
EV driving range R (Km)
80≤R＜＜＜＜150 150≤R＜＜＜＜250 R≥250 R≥50
EV 35 50 60 ／／／／
PHEV ／／／／ ／／／／ ／／／／ 35
Bus Bus length L (m)
Down-stream: Policy trend on xEV in China
Subsidy (103 RMB) 6≤L＜＜＜＜8 8≤L＜＜＜＜10 L≥10
EV 300 400 500
PHEV ／／／／ 250
Policy released on
Sept. 17th, 2013
In addition:
Subsidy for super capacitor and LTO battery fast charging EV bus: 150K RMB/unit
NEV >30% for additional public transportation
Foreign brand >30% in order to decrease local protectionism
Ciaps’s take: 1. Some LEV can touch this subsidy (35K RMB/unit) if driving range >80Km
2. EV in priority in China, however, HEV not in subsidy range again (<30K RMB for HEV is to be realized in the
near future, message in Mai 2014)
3. Local JV is needed to get these subsidies.
Trend on electrified transportation in China
Courtesy of SAIC, CHANA, FAW, IOP and D1EV
Conclusions� >90% LFP market is in China. Chinese LFP suppliers need to continue to improve
material quality and higher performance/price ratio to face the future challenge notonly in domestic market, but for exportation as well if applicable in the future.Collaboration between China & HQ will be meaningful with a bright perspective
� LFP battery remains the prior choice for ESS, e-bus, e-taxi in China, owing to its goodsafety and long cycle life. PHEV could be a good transition phase for private marketbefore the improved charging infrastructure is fully available
� Standerization of EV batteries and battery charging system is necessary to beestablished soon, otherwise there will be invisible local protection
� Appropriate business model should be applied in different cities/regions to betterpromote the xEV development, especially for the private market
� Infrastructure and xEV should be developped together, for the moment, infrastructureof charging points/station for private market are in priority!
� Government should establish a fair, open and transparent game rules of all partiesinvolved, without any preference. e.g. local catalogue of xEV should be re-discussed.Sometimes, Bonus is better than subsidies…
� HEV and LEV should be also given more attention by government
� Government’s intention should be well read by LIB/OEMs players, not just forfunding/subsidy application
� China also needs to improve its energy structure (80% electricity comes from coal-combustion), if it cannot use more renewable energy to charge the xEV, even the EV isZERO EMISSION, there will be pollution in other ways, since the electricity is notGREEN…
Outlook
� LFP battery is ready to support the transport electrification in China
�xEV reality route in China ① Two wheel→Three wheel→Four-wheel ② Lowspeed→High speed
� Increase of energy density cannot be sacrificed by safety that is in priorityforever
China
� In xEV, although fuel cell may be the ultimate choice, Lithium battery willdefinitely dominate this market in the following 10 years, so no matter LMP, LFP,LMO, NMC, OLO, OLS or Li-S, Li-Air, etc., at least, we will use LI.
� Global EV+PHEV sales could be doubled next year…
forever
World
Opportunities accompanied by chanllenges in China !
