Status Quo and Current Challenges of AquaMaps

Rainer FroeseIFM-GEOMAR, Kiel

rfroese@ifm-geomar.deFishBase Mini-Symposium 2011, Stockholm, 5.9.2011

www.aquamaps.org

Highlights and Challenges I

Highlights and Challenges II

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1000

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40 80 120 160 200 240 280

Longitude (degrees)

Nu

mb

er

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sp

ec

ies

(n

)

Maldives

Galapagos

Marshall I. Howland/Baker

Sumatra

Borneo

Celebes/Halmahera

Somalia

Ecuador

Seamount

Highlights and Challenges IIIEquatorial Species Richness Transect across the Indo-Pacific

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Main Challenges:

• How to handle massive amounts of data• How to free programmers from other tasks• Get funding for more and faster development

How About Climate Change?

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Expected Changes in Environmental Parameters in 2050

Climate zone Surface Temp. (°C)

BottomTemp. (°C)

Salinity BottomSalinity

Ice concentration (%)

Arctic +0.7 +1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -9

Temperate N +0.4 +0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -2

Subtropical N +1.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.0 0

Tropical +1.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0

Subtropical S +0.5 +0.3 -0.2 0 0

Temperate S +0.4 +0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.3

Antarctic +0.7 +0.5 -0.2 0.0 -3

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Preliminary Analysis

• 821 marine fishes with verified maps• Global suitable habitat in 1999 and 2050• Only core habitat considered (P > 0.5)

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More Losers than Winners

Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 for 821 species of marine fishes. Median loss in area is 6% (95% CL 5.1 – 6.8), significantly different from zero.Data from AquaMaps 2010.

Sharks and Bony Fish Lose Both

Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by Class. No loss for 2 lampreys and 3 chimaeras. About 6 % loss for 128 sharks and rays and 688 ray-finned fishes. The areas that are most suitable for sharks and rays do not shrink or expand more than those for ray-finned fishes.Data from AquaMaps and FishBase.

Evolution Did Not Help

Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by phylogenetic rank, with primitive species on the left and highly derive species on the right. The areas most suitable for primitive species do not shrink or expand more that those most suitable for highly-derived species.

Being Special Does Not Help

Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by phylogenetic uniqueness of the respective species, for 821 marine fishes. The areas most suitable for unique species do not shrink or expand more than the areas most suitable for species with many close relatives.

Size Does Not Matter

Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by maximum body length for 821 marine fishes. The areas most suitable for large fishes do not shrink or expand more than those of small fishes.

Highways and Homes

Change in suitable habitat area in 2050 by migratory behavior for 821 marine fishes. The areas most suitable for oceanodromous and diadromous fishes do not lose or gain more than those of non-migratory fishes.

No Change (yet) in the Deep(but reefs are getting hot)

Change in suitable area in 2050 by preferred habitat for 821 marine fishes. The deep sea and its (104) species are less affected by climate change. More than 50% of the reef-associated fishes are likely to lose suitable habitat.

The Tropics Lose

Change in suitable area in 2050 by climate zone for 821 marine fishes. Deep-sea areas (113 species) show no significant change. Also, suitable polar areas (19 species) show no change, maybe because losses due to increased temperature are made up for by receding ice-cover. Temperate species (128) may gain slightly (Median 1.6%, 95% CL -0.4 – 3.1). Suitable areas for subtropical (227) and tropical (334) fishes shrink significantly by about 8%.

Cosmopolitans Less Affected (1)?

Change in suitable area in 2050 by size of current suitable area, for 821 marine fishes. Extreme points may be artifacts. Overall it seems that suitable areas of 0.5 to 20 million km2 have more potential for shrinkage than areas over 40 million km2.

Cosmopolitans Less Affected (2)?

Change in suitable area in 2050 by latitudinal range, for 821 marine fishes. No trend is visible.

Summary

• AquaMaps have the potential to map all life on Earth, present, past and future

• Handling huge amounts of data is a challenge• Funding is needed for further (faster)

development

Thank You

Rainer FroeseIFM-GEOMAR

rfroese@ifm-geomar.de