S T E P H E N D K R A S N E RS T A N F O R D U N I V E R S I T Y

H E R Z L I Y A C O N F E R E N C E J U N E 2 0 1 5

ISRAEL 2015:MUNICH 1938

ORHELSINKI 1975

MUNICH

• Realpolitik was the correct analytic frame• Churchill was right; • Chamberlain was very wrong

• Germany was a revisionist not a status quo state• Appeasement failed catastrophically

THE MUNICH ANALOGY

• Palestine is a revisionist political movement• Middle East balance of power favoring Israel• Arab spring: neighboring states are weaker not stronger• Iran/Shia threat will make Sunni states more sympathetic

to Israel• Iran is still far away and will probably not commit suicide

• Israel’s power position is formidable

IF MUNICH IS THE RIGHT ANALOGY

• Compromise is dangerous and not necessary• Israel should:• Maintain military dominance• Resist a Palestinian state• Keep the security barrier• Control the Jordan valley and other borders

HELSINKI

• Norms mattered• Realpolitik/power was mostly wrong• Basket 3: Human rights• “Respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms

including the freedom of thought, conscience, belief”

• Contributed to the fall of the USSR• Organized opposition in eastern Europe• Helsinki watch groups• Focal points for protest in east (eg Catholic Church in Poland)

and the west (pressure on western governments from NGOs).

ISRAEL IS LOSING THE NORMATIVE ARGUMENT

Source: PIPA. 20 or 21 countries

2012 UN VOTE ON OBSERVER STATUS FOR PALESTINE

• 138 in favor• 9 opposed: • Canada, Czech Republic, Micronesia, Israel, Marshall Islands

, Nauru, Palau, Panama and United States of America.

• 41 Abstentions:• Albania, Andorra, Australia, Bahamas, Barbados, 

Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cameroon,Colombia, Croatia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Estonia, Fiji, Germany, Guatemala, Haiti,Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malawi, Moldova, Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro,Netherlands, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Poland, Romania, Rwanda, Samoa, San Marino,Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Togo, Tonga, United Kingdom and Vanuatu.

US ATTITUDES: BASIC SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL BUT FRAYING AT THE EDGES

• US: Support for Palestinian state• 45-55 percent since the 1980s. No trend

• Younger Americans less supportive of Israel

Dec 2014 Brookings poll

BDS, ACADEMIC BOYCOTTS, COLLEGE CAMPUSES

• Stanford University: Statement of the Stanford Board of Trustees on divestment: April 2015

• For the last several months, Stanford has been evaluating a request submitted by Stanford Students for Justice in Palestine that it divest its endowment holdings of certain companies that do business in Israel. The Board concluded that the university's mission and its responsibility to support and encourage diverse opinions would be compromised by endorsing an institutional position on either side of an issue as complex as the Israel-Palestine conflict. Therefore the Board will not be taking action on this request, nor will it consider this request further.

WHY IS ISRAEL (MOSTLY) LOSING THE NORMATIVE ARGUMENT?

• Anti-Colonialism: • Dominant Trope for most of the developing world• 2001 World Conference Against Racism in Durban

MOSLEM POPULATIONS IN EUROPE:MULTI-CULTURALISM HAS FAILED

CAN ISRAEL BELIEVE IN MUNICH AND MANAGE HELSINKI?

• What if Helsinki is right, a black swan?• Black Swans• Small probability• Uncertainty not risk (no way to know distribution)• Highly consequential

• Response to black swans: Precautionary Principle • Pay a high price to reduce probability of a black swan

event• Examples• GMOs in Europe• US reaction to TN terrorism

AN ISRAELI BLACK SWAN POLICY

• Propose a Camp David type settlement• Marginal borders changes• Eliminate non-contiguous settlements

• New institutional construct for Jerusalem• Keep the barrier• Maintain security presence in Palestinian state• Israel must be a Jewish state• No right of return

• Palestinians will most likely reject this offer• If Palestinians accept would Israel be worse off than it is

now?• Is it worth taking the gamble?