BASF  Science  Symposium  Smart  energy  for  a  sustainable  future  

9  –  10  March,  2015  

Energy and Climate Change and how to transition to a sustainable

world

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In  1898,  Sir  William  Crookes  delivers  an  address  his  inaugural  lecture  as  President  of  the  BriHsh  AssociaHon  for  the  Advancement  of  Science.  

“It  is  the  chemist  who  must  come  to  the  rescue  of  the  threatened  communiHes.  It  is  through  the  laboratory  that  starvaHon  may  

ulHmately  be  turned  to  plenty.”    

“England  and  all  civilized  naHons  stand  in  in  deadly  peril  of  not  having  

enough  to  eat.”  

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Fritz  Haber:  1918   Carl  Bosch:  1931  

Gerhard  Ertl:  2007  

At  the  beginning  of  the  industrial  revoluHon  there  

were  700  M    people.      

The  Haber-­‐Bosch  process  enabled  us  to  feed  a  world  that  doubled  in  

populaHon.  

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“The  baWle  to  feed  all  of  humanity  is  over  ...  In  the  1970s  and  1980s  hundreds  of  millions  of  people  will  

starve  to  death  in  spite  of  any  crash  programs  embarked  upon  now.”

Prof.  Paul  Ehrlich    Stanford  Biologist  

The  Popula+on  Bomb  (1968)  

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Norman  Borlaug  is  awarded  the  Nobel  Prize    in  1970  

Borlaug  bred  disease-­‐resistant,  dwarf  strains  of  wheat  with  thick  stems  that  could  support    heavier  kernels.      His  plants  didn’t  collapse  a]er  rapid  growth  spurts  due  to  nitrogen  ferHlizer  used  in  the  poor  soils.    

Source:  Food  and  Agriculture  Organiza4on  (FAO),  United  Na4ons  

World  ProducHon  of  Grain  (1961  –  2004)  

1960:    Popula4on  =  3  B  

2005:  Popula4on  =  6.5  B  

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Today, there are ~7.3 billion people. By ~2050 we will grow to ~ 9 billion.

Are technological “fixes” merely postponing disaster?

High-fertility: 2.5 children

Low-fertility 1.6

Medium-fertility: 2.0 children

“Our ability to find and extract fossil fuels continues

to improve, and economically recoverable reservoirs

around the world are likely to keep pace with the

rising demand for decades.”

Steven Chu and Arun Majumdar, Nature (2012)

Will we run out of oil and natural gas?

U.S. Oil Production (1945 – 2012) U.S. is the biggest producer of oil + nat. gas liquids + ethanol

2013 ~ 7.5 M bbls/day

2014 ~ 8.5 M bbls/day

U.S. oil production from tight oil is ~ 4.5 M bbls/day

Potential shale gas and tight oil reservoirs can change the energy landscape of the Americas, Asia and Europe.

The  rest  of  the  world  may  have  10  4mes  more  4ght  oil  and  shale  gas  than  the  U.S.  Also:  heavy  oil,  deep  water  oil,  oil  sands  …  

With all of the new oil and natural gas supplies, is the world energy

problem solved?

We have an Energy - Climate Change problem.

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2014 was the hottest year on record. 14 of the 15 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century.  

© 2013 Munich Re

NatCatSERVICE Weather-related loss events worldwide 1980 – 2013 Number of events

Meteorological  events  (Tropical  storm,  extra-­‐tropical  storm,  convecHve  storm,    local  storm)  

Hydrological  events  (Flood,    mass  movement)  

Climatological  events  (Extreme  temperature,    drought,  forest  fire)  

200

400

600

800

1 000

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Number  

©  2014  Münchener  Rückversicherungs-­‐Gesellscha],  Geo  Risks  Research,  NatCatSERVICE  –  As  at  February  2014  

88% of World-wide losses were weather related

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Rate  of  sea  level  rise  Jan  1993  –  Aug  2014  

3.2  mm/year,  roughly  3x  faster  than  

1870  –  1940  

Recent rate of sea level rise compared to historical record

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Muir Glacier, Alaska

August 31, 2004   August 13, 1941  

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Change in distance between 2 satellites is used to calculate the local gravity

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Ground water in California measured by the GRACE satellite

Since  2011,  the  Sacramento  and  San  Joaquim  river  basins  are  losing  15  km3  of  water  each  year.  Half  is  due  to  ground  water  pumping  in  the  Central  Valley.  

 25  year  delay  aTer  the  onset  of  smoking  

Smoking increases the risk of •  Lung cancer: 25x •  Coronary heart disease: 2x - 4x •  Stroke: 2x – 4x

Harbin, China

ParHculate  maWer  PM2.5  (<  2.5  μm)  and  PM10  are  especially  deadly.  36%  increase  in  lung  cancer  per  10  μg/m3  (The  Lancet  Oncology,  2014)      

Harbin, China

ParHculate  maWer  PM2.5  (<  2.5  μm)  and  PM10  are  especially  deadly.  36%  increase  in  lung  cancer  per  10  μg/m3  (The  Lancet  Oncology,  2014)      

PM2.5  measurements  at  U.S.  Embassy  in  Beijing  (Jan  2013)  Yearly  average  =  194  μg/m3      

Smoking  rooms  in  U.S.  

airports  

 25  year  delay  aTer  the  onset  of  smoking  

The damage already done to our environment may not be known for a century.

How long will CO2 remain in the atmosphere?  

•  Energy trends in fossil energy: oil and natural gas

•  An epidemiological approach to climate change

•  How science and technology will make clean energy the low cost option.

Outline of talk

“The  Stone  Age  came  to  an  end  not  for  a  lack  of  stones  and  the  oil  age  will  end,  but  not  for  a  lack  of  oil.”    

 -­‐    Sheik  Ahmed  Zaki  Yamani,  former  Saudi  Oil  Minister    

 

We transitioned to better solutions.

If we don’t find better solutions, the oil, gas and coal will be used.

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Energy efficiency

Clean energy sources

Science and technology can and must help change the current path we are on.

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R.  van  Buskirk,  C.  Kantner,  B.  Gerke  and  S,  Chu,  Environ.  Res.  LeW.  9  114010  (2014)  The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price

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R.  van  Buskirk,  C.  Kantner,  B.  Gerke  and  S,  Chu,  Environ.  Res.  LeW.  9  114010  (2014)  The effect of appliance standards on total cost and purchase price

Refrigerator  cost  declines  by  28%  for  each  doubling  of  producHon.  Energy  saved  in  the  U.S.  each  year  is  more  than  270  TWh  =  30  nuclear  reactors  operaHng  at  1  

GW  24  hours  a  day,  365  days  a  year.  

The Model T Ford (1908 – 1927) transformed transportation by making it “a able”

Henry  Ford  4-­‐cylinder  2.9  liter  engine:  20  -­‐22  hp        

Ford  3-­‐cylinder  1.0  liter  engine:  123  hp  

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The Boeing 787 uses 30% of the fuel of the 707,

carries 70% more passengers.

Its 2 jets have 80% more thrust than the 4 engines of the 707.

Market forces drove fuel economy in airplanes

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Energy efficiency

Clean energy sources

Science and technology can and must help change the current path we are on.

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100  meter  wind  tower   2.3  MW  turbine:  93  meter  diameter  blades,  115  meters  high.    

Wind  turbines  are  more  reliable,  efficient  and  bigger    

The  Wright  Brothers’  first  flight  was  36.6  meters  

U.S. wind energy costs and installed capacity (1980 – 2012). Long-term contracts at 3¢/kWh.

New natural gas is 5¢/kWh at $4/MMBtu

Solar Resources in the U.S. Germany and Spain

US Solar PPA Prices Jul 08 – Jul 2014 ($/MWh) Utility-scale solar energy is Texas is equal to the cost of new

natural gas at $4/Million Btu!

$  /M

Wh  

Wholesale  prices  went  from  19¢  to  5¢/kWh  in  6  years  

United States Solar Electricity Generation 1985 – 2013

My time as U.S. Secretary

of Energy

Solar energy accounts for only 0.25% of all electricity generated in the U.S. in 2013.

U.S. now has ~ 12 GW of installed capacity.

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Solar efficiency of Perovskite solar cells: 3% (2009) in 2009 è 20% (2014)

Perovskite solar energy conversion  

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Bloomberg New Energy Finance: Total cost of lithium ion battery packs for EVs and PHEVs

Tesla  Giga  Factory  baYery  pack  cost?  

Volumetric energy density of Li-ion batteries (courtesy Panasonic) 18650  Panasonic  

silicon  anode  Li-­‐ion  

4-­‐fold  increase  in  energy  density  since  commercial  introduc4on.    

Amprius  720  W/L    

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Tesla battery uses ~ 250 Wh/kg batteries.

Maximum theoretical energy density (Wh/kg)

85 kWh = 425 kg ~ 1200 lbs ~ $36,000 @ $425/kWh  

Yi  Cui  and  I  are  working  on  a  lithium-­‐  sulfur  baWery  that  may  increase  the  energy  density  5x  and  the  charging  rate  10x  of  today’s  baWeries.  

$1,000/kW  and  $160/kWh  

10,000  cycles  (30  years)  

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Progress in Batteries and other forms of energy “storage”

Pump  water  when  the  wind  blows  or  the  sun  shines  

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Solar modules and batteries that operate at at a wide range of temperatures can bring inexpensive electricity for LED

lighting, cell phones, refrigeration, water purification. Water can be pumped, purified and stored for months.

U.S. Electrical Grid System (> 230 kV)

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China has installed a 2000 km 800 kV DC line. Less than 7% of the energy is lost in conversion and transmission.

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High power-high voltage IGBT transistors can revolutionize HVDV transmission lines and Flexible AC Transmission

Need: improved dielectric materials HVDC undersea and

underground power lines.

A  prototype  1  MW,  20  kV  SiC  transistor.  (Cree,  2013)  

Improved high frequency, high voltage power electronics for

inverters, converters

Need:  High  power  –  high  voltage  Diamond  IGBT  transistors.  

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350  million  ]3  of  natural  gas/day  are  flared  in  the  Bakken  formaHon.  A  single  natural  gas  burner  is  as  loud  as  a  commercial  jet  engine.  

Statoil,  GE,  Ferus  Natural  Gas  Fuels:    Sept.  2014  the  expansion  of  a  pilot  project  to  capture  flare  gas  to  power  Statoil's  six  drill  rigs  and  one  frac  fleet  in  North  Dakota.    

Need: portable Gas-to-Liquid platforms powered by natural gas that would have been flared.

Can we use 30% wall-plug efficient lasers or other methods operating on natural gas

power to drive GTL reactions?

Commercial uses of CO2

•  EOR  +  associated  sequestraHon  •  Methane  coal-­‐bed  and  hydrate  extracHon  +  associated  sequestraHon  

•  Enhanced  geothermal  energy    

If we can capture carbon dioxide at < $15/ton, many opportunities in the capture and utilization

of CO2 may become economically attractive.

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My challenge to chemists (Seeking the 21st century “Haber–Bosch” solution)

Liquid chemical energy storage: e.g. use excess night time electricity to split water into

H2 and O2 and combine with CO2 captured from power, cement and steel production to make liquid fuels that can be shipped and

stored anywhere in the world.

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We need improved methods for splitting water for H2 and the reduction of captured

CO2 for hydrocarbon production.

•  Electrochemical conversion •  Photochemical conversion

•  Biological conversion

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Octane

Decane

Cetane

Captured CO2

H2O

?  

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In a world of 50% intermittent wind and solar energy, there will be significant surplus

electricity.

Even today, night-time electricity sell for ~ 0.5 - 2 cents/kWh

In a world when renewable surplus electricity becomes very inexpensive, can we engineer

industrial chemical processing to take advantage of this intermittent energy?

Earthrise  from  Apollo  8  (December  24,  1968)  

"We  came  all  this  way  to  explore  the  moon  and  the  most  important  thing  is  that  we  discovered  the  Earth.”  

Bill  Anders,    Apollo  8  Astronaut  57  

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There is an ancient Native American saying:

“We do not inherit the land from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.”

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end