stock condition surveysdoc.housing.org.uk.s3.amazonaws.com/presentations/b7 greg trimmer… ·...

Stock Condition SurveysStock Condition Surveys

Presented by Greg TrimmerPresented by Greg Trimmer


Stock Condition Surveys

Key Ingredients

Samplingand

cloning

Keeping up to date

Buying a Survey

Validating

Managing databases


Avoid the Pitt Fall!



Key Ingredients


Why have a Stock Condition Survey?

•• managing the bricks and mortar aspectsmanaging the bricks and mortar aspects•• how much needs to be spent and when?how much needs to be spent and when?•• how good should the housing be?how good should the housing be?

•• influencing decision makersinfluencing decision makers

•• expected by the regulatorexpected by the regulator


Expectations of the Audit Commission

An Excellent Landlord:• Collects accurate information on stock condition to

confirm the condition of its properties in relation to the DHS, and on costs and services, and uses it to decide priorities and to strategically manage resources. Carries out a statistically representative sample stock condition survey at least every three years.

A poor landlord:• Either does not systematically collect accurate

information on stock condition in relation to the DHS and on costs and services; or collects it, but does not always use it effectively to decide priorities and to manage resources.


Why have a Stock Condition Survey?•• Prioritise worksPrioritise works•• Produce programmes of workProduce programmes of work•• Assess Decent HomesAssess Decent Homes

–– And HHSRSAnd HHSRS•• Energy ProfilingEnergy Profiling

–– SAP/NHERSAP/NHER–– EPC’sEPC’s

•• Estimate future costsEstimate future costs–– Key contributor to assessing Corporate ViabilityKey contributor to assessing Corporate Viability–– Indicate costs of improvementsIndicate costs of improvements


Purpose of a Survey

valuation

?choose

maintenance programmes

What you get ...

Estimation of Future Costs

Everything else is a bolt on extra!


Stock Condition Surveys – in Practice

•• Estimate of future costsEstimate of future costs–– Everything else is a bolt on extra!Everything else is a bolt on extra!


Stock Condition Surveys – in Practice 2

•• VisualVisual•• Non intrusiveNon intrusive

–– No carpets liftedNo carpets lifted–– No furniture movedNo furniture moved

•• QuickQuick–– Therefore limitedTherefore limited

•• XX--Ray Vision?Ray Vision?–– Only for the comics!Only for the comics!


Categories of Maintenance Costsresponsive repairs

cyclical servicing

cyclical decorations

aids and adaptations

catch-up repairs

programmed repairs & replacements

improvements and new standards

contingencies


Non Survey costs•• ContingencyContingency

–– What couldn’t the surveyors see?What couldn’t the surveyors see?–– What might happen in the future?What might happen in the future?–– Often taken at 5% Often taken at 5% -- but this seems overbut this seems over--simplisticsimplistic

•• VATVAT–– Who will carry out the works? Are they VATable?Who will carry out the works? Are they VATable?

•• Fees Fees –– SurveyorsSurveyors–– CDM advisorsCDM advisors–– Planning and Building regs feesPlanning and Building regs fees

•• Internal adminInternal admin•• Prelims (15%) + Contingency(5%) + fees Prelims (15%) + Contingency(5%) + fees

(12.5%) +VAT (17.5%) could make up an add(12.5%) +VAT (17.5%) could make up an add--on of on of 50%50%


Why have a survey? Conclusions

•• Know the answer!Know the answer!•• Manage expectationsManage expectations

–– What a survey can and can’t doWhat a survey can and can’t do•• Be clear about the main purposeBe clear about the main purpose

–– Valuation or maintenance Valuation or maintenance programmingprogramming–– NOT a specification surveyNOT a specification survey

•• AddAdd--onsons–– What specialist surveys do you What specialist surveys do you need?need?



Samplingand cloning


Sampling Choices

Statistical ExtrapolationStatistical Extrapolation

OROR

CloningCloning


Statistics•• statistical confidencestatistical confidence•• relies on taking a relies on taking a randomrandom samplesample•• practice is often for a 10% samplepractice is often for a 10% sample

–– In recent years sample sizes have been increasingIn recent years sample sizes have been increasing•• The achieved confidence depends on the The achieved confidence depends on the

similarity of cost for each sample dwellingsimilarity of cost for each sample dwelling–– If all boiler costs are between £1,250 and £1,350If all boiler costs are between £1,250 and £1,350

the statistical confidence is higher than for a range the statistical confidence is higher than for a range between £1,000 and £1,500between £1,000 and £1,500

–– Confidence cannot be predicted in advance!Confidence cannot be predicted in advance!•• Strata samplesStrata samples

–– Group together items likely to show similar costsGroup together items likely to show similar costs


Statistics - 2•• Confidence level of 95%Confidence level of 95%•• precision of 4%precision of 4%

•• a repair estimated to cost £100a repair estimated to cost £100–– will actually cost on average between £96 will actually cost on average between £96

and £104 (precision)and £104 (precision)–– on 95 out of 100 propertieson 95 out of 100 properties


Distribution Curve

0

20

40

60

80

100

£ cost of repairs >

Num

ber o

f cas

es


Why sample?•• CostCost•• What do you need?What do you need?

–– Will you make good use of 100% dataWill you make good use of 100% data??–– Will stock condition change before you do the work?Will stock condition change before you do the work?

•• Diminishing returnsDiminishing returns

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

10% 5% 4% 3% 2%

Margin of Error vs. Sample size


Cloning

•• Actual surveys cloned to represent unsurveyed Actual surveys cloned to represent unsurveyed propertiesproperties

•• Database has a “record” for every propertyDatabase has a “record” for every property–– Sometimes these are cloned, not actualSometimes these are cloned, not actual


Cloning – Pros and Cons•• Inherently nonInherently non--statisticalstatistical

–– Extrapolates from a sample of 1Extrapolates from a sample of 1–– A “clone parent” is surveyedA “clone parent” is surveyed–– Dwellings believed to be similar Dwellings believed to be similar –– clone children clone children –– are given the are given the

same resultssame results•• IntuitiveIntuitive

–– Properties built at the same time in the same style should have Properties built at the same time in the same style should have similar costs and similar attributes (similar costs and similar attributes (egeg boiler)boiler)

–– But a lot of housing is inherently But a lot of housing is inherently dissimilardissimilar ((egeg street properties)street properties)•• UsefulUseful

–– Produces a record for every dwellingProduces a record for every dwelling–– Can be easier to derive work programmesCan be easier to derive work programmes

•• DangerousDangerous–– Easy to believe that cloned data is “real”Easy to believe that cloned data is “real”

•• Difficult to manageDifficult to manage–– What do you do with additional surveys?What do you do with additional surveys?–– Change the clone child? Change the clone parent? Change the clone child? Change the clone parent? –– Will updated clone parents generate updated clone children?Will updated clone parents generate updated clone children?


Conclusion

•• Sample sizeSample size–– There is no absolute ruleThere is no absolute rule–– General practice is between 10% and 25%General practice is between 10% and 25%–– Higher for PFI surveysHigher for PFI surveys–– 100% samples 100% samples –– why bother?why bother?

•• Cloning or Statistical ExtrapolationCloning or Statistical Extrapolation–– Pros and cons for bothPros and cons for both–– What’s the purpose of the survey What’s the purpose of the survey –– costs or costs or

programmes?programmes?



Keeping up to date


Keeping up to date•• 2 issues2 issues

–– New StandardsNew Standards–– Updating Updating existing dataexisting data


New Standards

All are about

Improvements

DHS+

TSA “Home

Standard” Local Offers


Surveys for Improvements•• YOU set the standardsYOU set the standards

–– Don’t let/expect the surveyors set themDon’t let/expect the surveyors set them•• What do you need to know?What do you need to know?

–– Do you know it already?Do you know it already?–– What action will you take?What action will you take?–– Is it just a different spec?Is it just a different spec?–– How will you cost it?How will you cost it?

•• Scenario planningScenario planning–– Collecting enough dataCollecting enough data–– Do you have the tools?Do you have the tools?


Updating Data•• Biggest current challengeBiggest current challenge

•• Good practice =Good practice =–– rolling programme of surveysrolling programme of surveys

•• How do you manageHow do you manage–– Statistical extrapolationsStatistical extrapolations–– ClonesClones


Statistical Extrapolation•• Relies on a random sampleRelies on a random sample

–– But a topBut a top--up sample isn’t random!up sample isn’t random!•• Real world answersReal world answers

–– Ignore the subtleties of statistical laws, BUT Ignore the subtleties of statistical laws, BUT understand the caveatsunderstand the caveats

–– OR OR –– revise financial projections with the new revise financial projections with the new

sample; use whole sample for programmingsample; use whole sample for programming•• Remember Remember –– one sample isn’t one sample isn’t

necessarily more “right” than the othernecessarily more “right” than the other


Cloning•• What do you update?What do you update?

–– Just the new property?Just the new property?–– The new property and other clone children in the The new property and other clone children in the

same clone family?same clone family?–– The whole clone family including the original clone The whole clone family including the original clone

parent?parent?•• Do you know the clone relationships?Do you know the clone relationships?•• Or do you reOr do you re--clone?clone?•• REAL WORLD ANSWERREAL WORLD ANSWER

–– Preferable to rePreferable to re--clone from scratchclone from scratch–– Just change the new recordJust change the new record



Buying a

Survey


So you want a survey…

In houseIn house

OrOr

ExternalExternal


In house – issues to think aboutProsPros•• Better controlBetter control•• Responsibility for programmingResponsibility for programming•• Easier to change/ reEasier to change/ re--act to new prioritiesact to new priorities•• Local knowledgeLocal knowledgeConsCons•• More difficult to be objectiveMore difficult to be objective•• External stakeholders will want validationExternal stakeholders will want validation•• What about the “day job”?What about the “day job”?•• Can be more expensive Can be more expensive –– really!really!•• Specialist experience requiredSpecialist experience required•• Management experience requiredManagement experience required•• Fieldwork support and data management/IT issuesFieldwork support and data management/IT issues


Case Study – York 2004•• 10% sample involving 1363 surveys10% sample involving 1363 surveys

–– 817 internals/ remainder externals or common 817 internals/ remainder externals or common partsparts

•• Team made up of:Team made up of:–– 1 f/t housing surveyor 1 f/t housing surveyor –– seconded from other seconded from other

dutiesduties–– 1 f/t equivalent = 3 other housing surveyors1 f/t equivalent = 3 other housing surveyors–– 3 temporary staff3 temporary staff–– 5 f/t equivalents in total5 f/t equivalents in total

•• Fieldwork took 3 monthsFieldwork took 3 months–– Equivalent to 4 ½ surveys per dayEquivalent to 4 ½ surveys per day


Halfway house•• Internally managedInternally managed•• Agency resources hired inAgency resources hired in•• Client provides survey formats and data Client provides survey formats and data

managementmanagement•• Possible to hire contract supervisorsPossible to hire contract supervisors

•• Depending on your view, this could be Depending on your view, this could be the best the best –– or the worst or the worst –– of both worlds!of both worlds!


External Surveyors - issues•• Get the brief right!Get the brief right!•• Experience of individual surveyorsExperience of individual surveyors

–– Most use (at least some) freelance surveyorsMost use (at least some) freelance surveyors•• Each firm has its own SystemsEach firm has its own Systems

–– Necessary for internal quality control Necessary for internal quality control –– and liability and liability issuesissues

•• Pilot surveysPilot surveys–– Does your timetable allow for this?Does your timetable allow for this?–– What happens if the pilot shows up problems?What happens if the pilot shows up problems?–– Pricing issuesPricing issues

•• Data compatibility is often an issueData compatibility is often an issue


Procurement Issues•• Most stock condition surveys unlikely to Most stock condition surveys unlikely to

exceed European thresholdsexceed European thresholds•• Good Good practice:practice:

–– advertiseadvertise, , –– PrePre--qualificationqualification–– Then TendersThen Tenders

•• How will you choose between one and How will you choose between one and another?another?

•• Do you want local firms to compete?Do you want local firms to compete?


How long will it take?Agree and Approve Brief 4 weeks

Advertise 2 weeks

PQQ issue and return 6 weeks

Select shortlist 1 week

Tender submissions received 6 weeks

Evaluate tender submissions 1 week

Confirm appointment / contracts 1 week (longer for contracts)

Mobilisation – starts with supply of Address information

3 weeks (includes tenant letters)

Fieldwork completed 3 to 6 weeks or longer –depends on sample size

Data input completed/ quality control process 2 weeks

Error check and analysis 2 weeks

Draft Report 2 to 4 weeks

Total time 33 to 38 weeks



Validating


Validation•• Increasingly sought by fundersIncreasingly sought by funders

–– Becoming acknowledged best practiceBecoming acknowledged best practice–– Particularly for inParticularly for in--house surveyshouse surveys

•• What do you look for?What do you look for?–– Scope Scope and consistencyand consistency–– Any Any omissionsomissions

•• With a significant/material financial effectWith a significant/material financial effect–– Projections Projections –– how made?how made?

•• From sample surveys to whole stockFrom sample surveys to whole stock•• cloning or extrapolation?cloning or extrapolation?

–– Life expectancies of key componentsLife expectancies of key components–– Component Component costscosts

•• Consistent with recent experience?Consistent with recent experience?–– Investment standardsInvestment standards

•• DHS DHS →→ DHS+ DHS+ →→ local offers?local offers?


Validation Stages•• Information Information RequestRequest

–– Surveyors guidance notes, other documentationSurveyors guidance notes, other documentation–– Component Component costs and Life expectanciescosts and Life expectancies–– Survey formsSurvey forms

•• Sampling processSampling process–– How was the sample determinedHow was the sample determined–– How was it then usedHow was it then used

•• On Site workOn Site work–– Be clear about the purpose of a “check survey”Be clear about the purpose of a “check survey”–– Check methodologyCheck methodology–– Broad indication of accuracyBroad indication of accuracy



Managing databases


Computing Issues•• Most stock condition surveys fail due to lack Most stock condition surveys fail due to lack

of IT supportof IT support•• Most IT standard packages can’t store all the Most IT standard packages can’t store all the

survey informationsurvey information•• Specialist IT modules often limit data Specialist IT modules often limit data

collection and organisationcollection and organisation•• Most surveyors will want to use their own Most surveyors will want to use their own

databasesdatabases•• Handheld computers for data collection Handheld computers for data collection -- 2 2

schools of thoughtschools of thought


Specialist Software•• SophisticatedSophisticated

–– Takes some time to learn!Takes some time to learn!

•• Main purposesMain purposes–– Allows you to keep adding/updating dataAllows you to keep adding/updating data–– Different reports and scenario planningDifferent reports and scenario planning–– Programme ManagementProgramme Management

•• Needs rigorous disciplineNeeds rigorous discipline–– Update regularlyUpdate regularly–– Don’t invent new “regions”; new “components”, Don’t invent new “regions”; new “components”, etcetc, without , without

careful thoughtcareful thought

•• Requires regular data cleansingRequires regular data cleansing–– Matching records to other databasesMatching records to other databases


Managing Databases•• Watch out for erroneous failure reportsWatch out for erroneous failure reports

–– EgEg DHS “disrepair” based only on life DHS “disrepair” based only on life expectancyexpectancy

•• Check your pricingCheck your pricing–– Prices should be best long term estimatesPrices should be best long term estimates–– Don’t overDon’t over--react to shotreact to shot--term peaks and term peaks and

troughs, but troughs, but –– consider rebasing costs when the market consider rebasing costs when the market

movesmoves

Conclusions


Stock Condition Surveys –Conclusions

•• Understand what they can doUnderstand what they can do–– And what they can’t doAnd what they can’t do–– And do your best to explain it to managers!And do your best to explain it to managers!

•• Surveys cost a lotSurveys cost a lot–– So consider sampling to improve valueSo consider sampling to improve value

•• Don’t waste your moneyDon’t waste your money–– Proactively manage the data after the Proactively manage the data after the

surveysurvey•• Love Love ‘‘emem or hate ‘or hate ‘emem

–– You can’t do without them!You can’t do without them!

thank you for listening.thank you for listening.


Specialist Surveys•• EnergyEnergy•• Energy Performance CertificatesEnergy Performance Certificates•• DrainageDrainage•• StructuralStructural•• Specialist structuresSpecialist structures•• AsbestosAsbestos•• AcousticAcoustic•• Mechanical and ElectricalMechanical and Electrical

–– Increasing importance with “green” Increasing importance with “green” energyenergy

•• TopographicalTopographical


Energy Performance Certificates

•• Here to stay!Here to stay!•• Accredited Domestic Energy AssessorAccredited Domestic Energy Assessor

–– About a dozen accreditation agenciesAbout a dozen accreditation agencies•• Every EPC registered centrally (“Landmark”)Every EPC registered centrally (“Landmark”)

–– Will this continue?Will this continue?•• Cloning of EPCs Cloning of EPCs –– special rules, limits cloningspecial rules, limits cloning•• Will your data system:Will your data system:

–– Calculate the SAP rating?Calculate the SAP rating?•• If so does it comply with the offical SAP system?If so does it comply with the offical SAP system?

–– Accept SAP ratings from others?Accept SAP ratings from others?–– Flag which properties have EPC’s,Flag which properties have EPC’s,

•• and how old they areand how old they are

Session 2

Resident InvolvementResident Involvement


Residents at the Heart•• ConsultationConsultation

–– Decent Homes Plus Decent Homes Plus –– What is reasonable to ask residents to What is reasonable to ask residents to

comment upon?comment upon?•• Give residents clear choicesGive residents clear choices

–– Gauging Priorities Gauging Priorities –– rather than wanting it rather than wanting it all!all!

–– Raising expectations Raising expectations –– be careful what you be careful what you promise!promise!


Notification•• General notificationGeneral notification

–– Doing a survey can be positive PR with residentsDoing a survey can be positive PR with residents–– Individual letters or article in newsletterIndividual letters or article in newsletter–– Make sure contact staff knowMake sure contact staff know

•• and your web site is updated!and your web site is updated!

•• Individual NotificationIndividual Notification–– Surveyors preference is to “cold call”Surveyors preference is to “cold call”–– Modern attitudes to customer service point to Modern attitudes to customer service point to

appointmentsappointments–– Contact arrangementsContact arrangements

•• Consider Police notificationConsider Police notification–– Beware conmen claiming to be your surveyorsBeware conmen claiming to be your surveyors


Staff Code of Conduct•• ID badgesID badges

–– Offered before asked forOffered before asked for•• Clean shoes, and maintain cleanliness/ Clean shoes, and maintain cleanliness/

tidiness of the hometidiness of the home•• Invite occupiers to point out issuesInvite occupiers to point out issues

–– But don’t give hostages to fortuneBut don’t give hostages to fortune•• Consider Surveyors issuing repair requestsConsider Surveyors issuing repair requests•• If appointments being usedIf appointments being used

–– Arrive on timeArrive on time–– Notify any delays to resident and to central contact Notify any delays to resident and to central contact

pointpoint•• Other customer care matters Other customer care matters –– as per usualas per usual


Resident Surveys•• Opinion surveys sometimes bundled Opinion surveys sometimes bundled

with stock surveyswith stock surveys–– Building surveyors not usually social Building surveyors not usually social

interviewersinterviewers–– Sampling of buildings based on different Sampling of buildings based on different

aspects than samples of residentsaspects than samples of residents–– Data processing issues usually differentData processing issues usually different–– Use the standard “STATUS” survey Use the standard “STATUS” survey

approachapproach


Make time for the Residents

•• Advance notificationAdvance notification–– Allow two weeksAllow two weeks

•• Be clear about consultation processesBe clear about consultation processes–– Including consultation on the resultsIncluding consultation on the results

•• Tell the residents Tell the residents –– “why”“why”•• Give indications of survey timelineGive indications of survey timeline


Archetypes•• Originally developed to Originally developed to

allow cost comparisons for allow cost comparisons for regeneration projectsregeneration projects

•• Similar methodology used Similar methodology used to introduce the Major to introduce the Major Repairs Allowance (for LAs)Repairs Allowance (for LAs)

•• Based on LA stock Based on LA stock portfoliosportfolios–– Not good descriptors for most Not good descriptors for most

HA’sHA’s

•• Often used for sample Often used for sample stratification or as “cloning stratification or as “cloning families”families”

Pre-1945 small terrace houses(small: less than 70 square metres)

Pre-1945 semi-detached houses

All other pre-1945 houses1945-64 small terrace houses1945-64 large terrace/semi-detached/detached houses

1965-74 housesPost-1974 housesNon-traditional houses

Pre-1945 low rise (1-2 storeys) flatPost 1945 low rise (1-2 storeys) flatsMedium rise (3-5 storeys) flats

High rise (6 or more storeys) flats

Bungalows

Fieldwork


Survey Fieldwork:Methodology

•• Survey Form DesignSurvey Form Design–– Hard copyHard copy–– HandHand--heldshelds

•• PricingPricing–– SoR SoR –– specific to the data being collectedspecific to the data being collected

•• NOT the same as, say, the NHF SoRNOT the same as, say, the NHF SoR–– Spot pricesSpot prices

•• Life expectancies of materialsLife expectancies of materials•• Attribute informationAttribute information•• Tenant LiaisonTenant Liaison

–– AppointmentsAppointments–– CallCall--backsbacks


Fieldwork Staff•• Recruitment and SelectionRecruitment and Selection

–– Permanent or Agency StaffPermanent or Agency Staff–– Qualifications/ Chartered/ experienceQualifications/ Chartered/ experience

–– Client approval of individual fieldwork staffClient approval of individual fieldwork staff

•• Training and DevelopmentTraining and Development–– completion of survey formscompletion of survey forms–– energy surveyingenergy surveying–– detailed project briefingdetailed project briefing

•• Pilot SurveyPilot Survey•• Fieldwork SupervisionFieldwork Supervision•• Data quality checkingData quality checking


Consistency•• Observation of defectObservation of defect•• Proposed repairing actionsProposed repairing actions•• PricingPricing

•• Estimation of future lifeEstimation of future life–– This yearThis year–– Next yearNext year–– SoonSoon–– then 5 year bandsthen 5 year bands

£-

£500,000

£1,000,000

£1,500,000

£2,000,000

£2,500,000

yr1 yr2 yr3 yr 4 yr5


Quality Control•• On site supervisionOn site supervision

–– A fieldwork supervisor who checks up on his staffA fieldwork supervisor who checks up on his staff•• Resident phone callsResident phone calls

–– A sample of residents called to confirm survey took place, etcA sample of residents called to confirm survey took place, etc•• Quality control of every formQuality control of every form

–– A read throughA read through•• Call backs where issues identifiedCall backs where issues identified•• Photographic recordPhotographic record

–– Every property and every defectEvery property and every defect•• Forms returned/data uploaded regularlyForms returned/data uploaded regularly

–– Try to get quality control checks during fieldwork process Try to get quality control checks during fieldwork process ––not afterwardsnot afterwards

•• Further quality control through data analysisFurther quality control through data analysis–– This comes laterThis comes later

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