Strategic Enrollment Development

Strategic Goal 1: EnrollmentStrategic Goal 3: Program Development

Enrollment Team Meeting September 2, 2014

FALL ENROLLMENT HEADCOUNTS SINCE FALL 2001

423 505 551 519 526 560 631 640808 957 996 1038 1079 1115 1158 1178 1183 1227 1250 1267 1220409

476 404 472 436 352 325 312333

378 427 434 369 335 344 395 460 495 525 595 625

495

664 682 668 656 693 684 784

893

970 927 944 837 720880

919 920992

10871126 1218

248221

145

332367

442439

547498 490

205

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200

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2800

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3200

3400

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2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

FCST 2014

pl2014

pl2015

pl2016

pl2017

pl2018

pl2019

pl2020

CAS EDU SPS/BGS NHP

1327

1645 1637 1659 1618 1605 16401736

NUMBER OF STUDENTS

2034

2305

25552664

25062714

28593005

3153

3409

Actual Projected3486

3553

2

2350

Enrollment decline 2013-2014 due to NCLEX issues in Nursing, rapid graduation of grad students and failure to replace at same rate, and ongoing stagnation of retention rate @ 70% y-y – all fixable

3

0

200

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600

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2600

19001901190219031914191719191920194819491950195119521953195419551956195719581959196019611962196319641965196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

CAS EDU SPS NHP

HEADCOUNTS 1900 TO 2013

Enrollment fluctuations are part of the normal history of Trinity’s enrollment patterns. The most important issue is how quickly we can recover from the downturn in 2013-2015.

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Strategic Enrollment Development depends on two fundamental tactics:

1. Strategic Program Initiatives aligned with new markets to attract new enrollments in sufficient volume to meet goals

2. Retention Management focused on proven tactics --- rooted in good research and sound data analysis --- to foster significant improvement in persistence and completion

STRATEGIC GOAL 3: STRATEGIC PROGRAM INITIATIVES

COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES • Retention Initiatives and Project Completion• Improve First Year Experience Program• Science Pedagogy and Undergrad Research Initiatives• Early Childhood Education BA• Psychology articulation to MA in Counseling• Human Relations link to Master’s in Counseling• International Affairs and Government

SCHOOL OF NURSING AND HEALTH PROFESSIONS

• NCLEX PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT• Second Bac and Transfer• Occupational Therapy including MOT• RN-BSN expansion including articulation agreements• MSN and online opportunities• Other Allied Health opportunities & partnerships

SCHOOL OF EDUCATION • Early Childhood Education• Educational Policy• CACREP Accreditation• Online and Off-Site Opportunities

SCHOOL OF PROFESSIONAL STUDIES

• Early Childhood Education AA• Hospitality, Accounting and Human Resources• Health Sciences and POTA• Human Relations and Criminal Justice• Pathways for Professional Student Success• Online and Off-Site Opportunities

SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND GRADUATE STUDIES

• Strengthen/revitalize existing master’s degrees including the MBA, MSA, MA in COM (change to Strategic Communication) and MA in ISS

• Career Support and Employer Network• Graduate Student Engagement Initiatives• Military Recruiting and Engagement• Online/Off-site

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Retention Management: Trends and Goals

Fall-to-Fall Retention Rates Fall 2007 to Fall 2012 GOALS F-F: 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total 70% 71% 72% 75% 73% 72% 70% 75% 78% 80%

CAS 68% 67% 72% 76% 73% 71% 69% 75% 78% 80%

SPS UG 67% 73% 71% 73% 68% 66% 64% 70% 72% 75%

SPS GR 73% 80% 76% 77% 76% 76% 74% 80% 82% 85%

EDU 73% 73% 68% 75% 74% 74% 74% 80% 82% 85%

NHP 94% 85% 77% 88% 90% 92%

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

32% 34%40%

19%

0% 0%

2%5%

11%

27%

49%57%

13% 6%

3%

1%0%

0%8% 16%

12%18% 17%

20%15%

22% 15%10% 9%

9%9%

5% 8%

4% 6%

6%10%

5%6%

14% 12%2%

9% 7% 3% 6% 5% 6%

57%60%

68% 66%68%

77%

30%33%

Trinity CAS Cohort Completion and Continuing Enrollment/Attrition With Clearinghouse Data for Cohorts from Fall 2006 to Fall 2011

And Pell Grant Completion Rates for 2006 and 2007 Cohorts

Good ACSTACAPROBad ACSTFin HoldEnroll OtherBA OtherAA OtherEnroll TrinityBA TrinitySuccess RatePell Completion

First Time Full Time Cohort Initial Enrollment Fall

On the columns above, the dark purple is the completion rate at Trinity, the light purple is still enrolled at Trinity, the blues are completed or still enrolled at other institutions, and the red line and number is the “success rate.” The cohorts that began in 2006-2007-2008 have largely finished degrees by now. The cohorts for 2009-2010-2011 are mostly still in school. Above the line, the columns show attrition because of money (green) or academic reasons.

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Project Completion• Goal: to improve retention, persistence and degree attainment at Trinity for all

student populations at all degree levels (metrics under development)

(This is all part of our Middle States Self-Study and also supports Goal #1 of the Strategic Plan)

• Objectives:

– Create and maintain a comprehensive analysis of degree attainment (“success rate”), continuing enrollment and stop-out patterns at Trinity and elsewhere to present a comprehensive picture of what happens to students who enroll at Trinity at some point in their academic careers

– Identify barriers to student retention and persistence that serve to discourage, delay and prevent degree attainment

– Create a pro-active student retention management system that prioritizes actions to encourage students to stay in school while reducing costs and bureaucratic burdens

– Provide assessment data and action plans for that part of the Middle States Self-Study addressing enrollment and completion issues

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Barriers to Retention and Persistence

Typical risk factors for attrition include financial hardship, poor academic preparation, health and family issues. But some students are able to overcome those issues while others do not. A deeper analysis of retention issues identifies factors within Trinity’s control that often become the “last straw” for students who are coping with multiple risk factors. Reducing these “barriers to retention and persistence” will contribute to an improvement in retention, persistence and completion:

• Curriculum Design Issues• Policies and Advising Interpretations• Program and Pedagogical Issues• Student Engagement Opportunities• Administrative Behaviors

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Curriculum Design Issues• Is the developmental learning program a springboard for success or a barrier that

forces students out?

– How much time and money must students devote to developmental skills-building courses before they are “allowed” to engage in more substantive courses?

– How much content do CAS first year students receive in their course schedules?– Why are critical reading and writing skills not embedded in content courses?

• Is General Education a true platform for engagement in learning, or does it seem like a set of requirements that fails to make sense to students?

– Are there traditional requirements that need reconsideration in the modern age? Why do we require certain kinds of courses beyond tradition?– Are there new disciplines and new areas of learning that might supplant the older models?– How much time and money does General Education demand of our students and can we justify the investments?– At a time when the liberal arts are under fire for relevance and efficiency, can we consider our model and fine tune the requirements and expected

outcomes to demonstrate the true value of liberal learning in relation to necessary lifelong professional outcomes?

• Should Trinity reconsider the 128 credits required for graduation? 120 credits is the norm.

• These are frequently the issues that beg the question Is College Worth It? How can Trinity respond in a more innovative and standard-setting way to this fundamental public challenge?

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Policies and Advising Interpretations

• Limitations on the number of credit hours CAS students are allowed to take elongates time to degree and adds considerable cost

– If a student may only take 12 credit hours she will require at least 5.5 years to complete 128 credits, hence, a “four year degree” becomes impossible

– The extra 1.5 years = $50,000 on the total cost of attendance PLUS lost wages– CAS full-time tuition pays for up to 18 credits per semester, hence, a 12-credit cap means a

student loses $4100 of credit value per semester, or $8200 of credit value per year– Elongating time to degree leads to attrition, defaults, poor completion rates, reputational

risk

• How can we accelerate student progress toward degrees while addressing the learning issues that cause the credit limitations?

• Do we really know that credit limits actually improve student performance? What data do we have to prove this?

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Policies and Advising Interpretations

• Transfer Credit Policy: align more carefully with residency requirement so that students do not transfer more credits than what counts; align what’s accepted with fulfillment of Trinity requirements

• Academic Probation and Satisfactory Academic Progress: Create a seamless case management process that is clearer and more understandable to the student and staff alike, reduce bureaucracy and provide a simpler and more effective route to academic support in the process

• Unlimited course withdrawals: undermine the need for persistence in learning, add expense and debt burden, create the wrong impression about how to handle academic challenges

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Programs and Pedagogy• Confusing, inconsistent and misleading requirements for graduation

across major programs; need to have consistency in grading policies, number of credits required in majors, and similar requirements

• Improve alignment of majors with expected professional outcomes: even in the liberal arts students must know how their major will track into a career field

• Pedagogy: weak or inappropriate use of technology tools and Moodle represses the opportunity that technology presents to improve student learning through more engaging pedagogy, as well as the use of hybrid formats to accelerate courses and programs

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Administrative Behaviors• First Year Attendance: ESSENTIAL! Faculty who teach in the first year MUST

take attendance and record in Moodle. This is an essential tool for retention management supported by national research on first year experience.

• Bureaucracy Abounds: Advisors, Administrative Offices must be open and accessible to students; NO student should be sent away with an instruction to “make an appointment” when she needs help right away

• Student Computer Literacy: stop making assumptions and make sure that students know what we’re talking about when we refer them to a computer screen

• Websites: all administrative websites need upgrading to provide more useful, friendly information for students

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Elements of Effective Retention Management

• Data and Analysis: Understanding retention factors and attrition factors: – Why do some students persist while others stop out? What kind of data do we have comparing the two

groups?• We have a great deal of data on attrition factors but what do we have on retention factors?

• Paying Attention to Mid-Range Students: We give a great deal of attention to at-risk students, and some attention to Honors Students. What happens to the great mass of students in the middle?

• Engagement Opportunities: Evidence throughout higher education indicates that students who are engaged early and often tend to persist. What strategies do we have to ensure effective student engagement at every grade level across all units?

• Value for Investment of Money and Time: How effectively do we communicate the value of the investment of student money and time? Do we show students the return on the investment of staying in school and progressing toward the degree? How well do our students understand this concept?

• Cohort Model: we are seeing some success with Conways. We see less success with DC Achievers because we really did not treat them as a cohort. What will we do with Dreamers, Shannon, etc.? Can we create other cohort models? Wasn’t this the original intent of learning communities? Can cohorts work for other academic units?

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Next Steps As of 9 2 2014:• Develop the cohort concepts for each unit and grade level• Identify ways to engage students in discussion of what would help them to

stay enrolled• Develop a method to collect data and to assess why some students persist

when similarly situated students attrit• Improve the leverage potential of Trinity traditions to create more group

identity (eg, class colors, pins, rings, etc.) and use these moments to build engagement and retention opportunities

• Develop a script for ways to talk about the value of staying enrolled versus the economic, social and emotional setbacks that can come from dropping out

• Consider how to present a comprehensive plan and cost analysis for the entire academic program of a student so that she can see how it would work if she stayed enrolled continuously through the degree