student success pathway outcomes...student success pathway outcomes office of research, planning,...

Student Success Pathway Outcomes

Governing Board Retreat February 5, 2016

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Student Success Pathway Outcomes Office of Research, Planning, and Institutional Effectiveness February 5, 2016 Grossmont-Cuyamaca Community College District C:\Users\Rosie.Ibarra\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.Outlook\XZB2OANZ\Board Retreat Outcomes Data 20160202.docx

TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary................................................................................................................................................................................. 2

Start Strong............................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Key Performance Indicator: GUHSD Capture Rates................................................................................................................ 4

Key Performance Indicator: Math Placement Rates .................................................................................................................. 5

Intervention: East County Education Alliance ............................................................................................................................. 7

Keep Moving ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 8

Key Performance Indicators: Persistence Rates ......................................................................................................................... 8

Intervention: First Year Experience Programs.......................................................................................................................... 10

Grossmont College Freshman Academy ............................................................................................................................... 10

Cuyamaca College First Year Experience ............................................................................................................................. 13

Key Performance Indicators: Persistence .................................................................................................................................. 14

Intervention: Acceleration ............................................................................................................................................................. 15

Complete ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17

Degrees & Certificates .................................................................................................................................................................... 17

Appendix ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 21

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Developed by the GCCCD Student Success Committee in 2013, the Student Success Framework provided guidance and structure to the student achievement metrics detailed in the Key Performance Indicators Report. As shown in Figure 2, the Framework is based on a student pathways model for student achievement. Measurement and data definitions were developed collaboratively in the Institutional Research and Planning Committee throughout 2013-2014.

This report is to provide the college community with useful information as it relates to students achievement and success as well as to incorporate accountability measures from the Student Success Scorecard. The data collected here is generated both by the California Community College Chancellor’s Office (via MIS reporting) and the GCCCD Research Database.

Lastly, this is an ongoing process and the future structure of this report will respond to the college’s need for data that is aligned with major initiatives associated with Strategic Planning, Enrollment Management, Program Reviews, and other major projects on the campus.

Figure 1: GCCCD Student Success Framework

Streamlined Student-Centered Pathways

Student Equity

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Figure 2: GCCCD Student Success Framework—KPI Data Elements

Financial Assistance

Pre-assessment Prep

Assessment/Orientation/AdvisementLong Term Education Plan

Registration Before Term Begins

Start English/Math Sequence in First YearPersist in Developmental Sequence

Complete Developmental Sequence within 2 Years

Update Long Term Education Plan at End of First Year

Enroll in Gatekeeper Courses

Start English/Math within First YearPass College Level English/Math Within One YearContinuously Enroll in First Three Primary TermsComplete 30 units of Degree Applicable WorkCompletion of GE Package within 6 Years

Achieve Transfer Preparedness within 6 Years

Degree Completion

Certificate CompletionTransfer Outcome

Job Placement (Focus on CTE)

Licensure/Certification Pass Rates

ACCESS DEVELOPMENTAL COLLEGE-LEVEL COMPLETION

GCCCD Student Success Framework

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START STRONG

Key Performance Indicator: GUHSD Capture Rates The Grossmont Union High School capture rates are created by dividing the number recent GUHSD graduates who enrolled at GCCCD for the first time in the summer or fall term immediately following their high school graduation by the overall number of GUHSD graduates (obtained from the California Department of Education DataQuest site). For example, in Fall 2014, 1,530 recent GUHSD graduates enrolled at GCCCD for the first time. In 2013-2014, 4,354 students graduated from GUHSD. Therefore, the capture rate was 35.1% (1,530/4,354).

The capture rate has increased by over five percent since Fall 2012. This has occurred despite the significant decrease (-9%) in the numbers of graduates in GUHSD since 2009-2010.

Figure 3: GUHSD Capture Rates, 2010-2014

30.4% 29.8% 29.0%

34.2%35.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Fall 2014

GUHSD Grads:(n = 4,811)





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Key Performance Indicator: Math Placement Rates Table 1: Math Placement Levels of First-Time GCCCD Students at Grossmont College, Fall 2011-2015

Fall

2011

Fall

2012

Fall

2013

Fall

2014

Fall

2015

Five-Year

Average

MATH-088 9.7% 9.3% 9.2% 16.9% 10.3% 11.1%(n = 468) (n = 370) (n = 443) (n = 773) (n = 489) (n = 2,543)

MATH-090/096 21.7% 20.5% 17.7% 12.6% 14.9% 17.4%(n = 1,051) (n = 813) (n = 851) (n = 574) (n = 710) (n = 3,999)

MATH-103/110 17.4% 16.3% 18.2% 23.9% 15.0% 18.2%(n = 842) (n = 646) (n = 873) (n = 1,090) (n = 715) (n = 4,166)

MATH-120 or above 12.1% 11.1% 12.3% 6.7% 13.0% 11.1%(n = 585) (n = 440) (n = 589) (n = 305) (n = 618) (n = 2,537)

Did not take placement 39.1% 42.8% 42.6% 39.9% 46.8% 42.2%

(n = 1,890) (n = 1,695) (n = 2,044) (n = 1,822) (n = 2,229) (n = 9,680)

1st Time Cohort (n = 4,836) (n = 3,964) (n = 4,800) (n = 4,564) (n = 4,761) (n = 22,925)

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Figure 4: First-Time Students Who Attempt Math within Three Years

61.4%59.5% 60.6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fall 2010 Fall 2012 Two-Year Average

(n = 5,193) (n = 3,964) (n = 9,157)

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Intervention: East County Education Alliance The Alliance was formed to increase collaboration between the Grossmont Union High School District and the Grossmont-Cuyamaca Community College District so that students are better informed about their college and career options after high school and have a smoother path to college. Major goals of the partnership focus on not only increasing the number of students who enroll at Cuyamaca or Grossmont College that graduate from a GUHSD high school, but also that these students are ready start college with a running start.

In the first few years of the Alliance, faculty teams from English, ESL, and math in both districts are working to align curriculum so that the lessons students are taught in high school better matches the knowledge and skills they are expected to have at college. One of the outcomes of this work will be that students will be able to place directly into a college math or English courses based solely on their performance (i.e., grades) in their high school classes. That is, students will be able to bypass the placement tests altogether through alternative methods (which recent research has shown to be a better predictor of college success).

Pilot math articulation agreements have been recently completed at several high schools and recent data seem very promising. Of the 115 students who took advantage of the articulation agreement from feeder high schools in Fall 2014, 78 percent (n = 90) had enrolled in a math course by the end of Fall 2015. This is much higher than the KPI data showing that only 60 percent of first time students attempt math within three years of matriculating.

The overall success rates as well as the success rates by math level exceeded the success rates of those students who placed into the courses through the assessment test. In other words, students are just as successful in their math courses when simply using their math grades from high school for placement as those students who were placed by the assessment instrument (ACCUPLACER).

Table 2: Course Success Rates by Math Level for Articulated Student Placements

Perhaps more importantly, 40 percent of the cohort (n = 46) has successfully completed a transfer level math course within ONE year, which is identical to the KPI data showing that 40 percent of first-time students achieve this milestone with THREE years.

Fall 2014

Cohort

Success

Rate

MATH-088 1 100%

MATH-090/096 1 100%

MATH-103/110 54 69%

MATH-120 or above 34 85%

Total 90 76%

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KEEP MOVING

Key Performance Indicators: Persistence Rates The following charts and tables include only first-time students to GCCCD who were enrolled in the fall term.

Figure 5: First-Time Students Fall to Fall Persistence Rates at Grossmont College, Fall 2009-2013

46.0%

51.7% 52.8%

57.7%55.0%

52.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Five-Year Average

(n = 5,767) (n = 5,193) (n = 4,836) (n = 3,964) (n = 4,800) (n = 24,560)

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Figure 6: First-Time Students Fall to Fall Persistence Rates at Cuyamaca College, Fall 2009-2013

48.5%51.8%

56.0% 55.4%59.0%

53.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 Five-Year Average

(n = 2,344) (n = 2,371) (n = 1,690) (n = 1,635) (n = 1,916) (n = 9,956)

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Intervention: First Year Experience Programs Grossmont College Freshman Academy

The Freshman Academy at Grossmont College is a first year experience program for students who placed in below-transfer level English (ENGL-098 or ENGL-110) or basic skills Math (MATH-090). The program "links" curriculum together contextualized around a common theme or interest area to form learning communities and provides the students with dedicated counseling services to help improve study skills, understand college resources, and to plan their future schedules.

Results from the Fall 2012 cohort show that first time students benefit from the program, performing better than comparable groups of students on course success and retention rates, persistence, unit completion, and completion of the basic skills English sequence.

Figure 7: Freshman Academy Overall Course Success Rates for Freshman Academy Students

71.7%

16.9%

11.4%

78.1%

15.1%

6.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Successful Not Successful Withdrew

Comparison Group

Freshman Academy

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Latino students (n = 85) showed impressive gains in the program, with 72 percent successfully completing ENGL-098 and enrolling in ENGL-110 within one year, nearly 25 percentage points higher than other first time Latino students that are recent high school graduates. They also persist at slightly higher rates (Figure 9) and complete more units on average in one academic year (Figure 10).

Figure 8: Freshman Academy Basic Skills English Sequence Completion, Fall 2012 Cohort

47.0%

52.2%

71.8%75.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Latino Overall

Comparison Group

Freshman Academy

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Figure 9: Freshman Academy “Fall-Spring-Fall” Persistence Rates, Fall 2012 Cohort

Figure 10: Freshman Academy Average Unit Completion Rates, Fall 2012 Cohort

65.7%69.8%

72.9%76.4%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Latino Overall

Comparison Group

Freshman Academy

13.414.3

19.6 20.1

0

10

20

30

Latino Overall

Comparison Group

Freshman Academy

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Cuyamaca College First Year Experience

Implemented in fall 2011, the First-Year Experience program at Cuyamaca College is specifically designed to provide historically disadvantaged and non-traditional incoming college students with a uniquely structured holistic first-year college experience. On average, over two-thirds of the FYE program participants are Latino and over 50 percent of the 2014 cohort are first generation college students. By comparison, 37 percent of the first-time fall 2014 students at Cuyamaca were Latino and 28 percent were first generation college students.

The figure below displays the average first semester course retention rates, course success rates, and fall-to-fall persistence rates of all first-time students and the outcomes of Latino students in the FYE program for fall 2011 through fall 2014. Latino students in the FYE program have higher average course retention rates, comparable course success rates, and higher fall-to-fall persistence rates than ALL students who first enrolled at the College during the same fall semester.

Figure 11: Retention Rates, Success Rates, and Fall-to-Fall Persistence Rates of Latino FYE Students

85%

71%

57%

94%

69%67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Retention Rates Success Rates Persistence (Fall to Fall)

All First-Time Students

Latino (FYE)

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Key Performance Indicators: Math Progress Rates Taken from the Student Success Scorecard, the initial cohort of students for the remedial math progress rates is comprised of those first-time students whose first attempt in a math course was below college-level (MATH-103/110). The cohort year is based on the academic year of the first attempt. Students with successful outcomes are those students who successfully completed college-level math (MATH-103/110) within SIX years of their first attempt.

Figure 12: Remedial Math Progress Rate Five-Year Trends

45.7%

37.2%

39.3% 39.1%

31.9%

36.3%

36.1%

36.2%36.9%

29.0% 29.0%

29.7%

31.6%32.9%

28.4% 28.9%

30.0%

30.7% 31.0%

14.3%15.5%

19.2%

24.8%

19.9%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2004-05 to2009-10(n = 595)

2005-06 to2010-11(n = 578)

2006-07 to2011-12(n = 571)

2007-08 to2012-13(n = 575)

2008-09 to2013-14(n = 643)

Attempted 2-4 Levels Below Transfer Math Student Cohorts

Remedial Math Progress Rates

SD County High

Cuyamaca

SD County Average

Statewide Average

SD County Low

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Intervention: Acceleration Cuyamaca College first began offering its accelerated statistics pathway for students not pursuing math, science, or business majors in fall 2011. Beginning at two levels below transfer, MATH-096 prepares students to enter the transfer level statistics course (MATH-160) after one semester of instruction (see Appendix

Figure 17 in the Appendix for a diagram of the different math pathways). Figure 13 compares the results of the accelerated statistics pathway with the traditional math pathway from fall 2011 through spring 2015. On average, 52 percent of students who entered the accelerated pathway completed a transfer level math course within two years of attempting MATH-096. During the same time period, of those students who attempted MATH-090 (i.e., math two levels below transfer), only 14 percent successfully completed a transfer-level math course within two years. In other words, students in the accelerated pathway were 3.8 times more likely to successfully complete a transfer-level math course within two years than those who started in the traditional math pathway.

While the accelerated math pathway has not eliminated differing outcomes by race and ethnicity, it has slightly closed the gaps between white students and their fellow black and Latino students. For black students in the District, students in the accelerated math pathway were 4.76 times more likely (33% vs. 7%) to successfully complete a transfer level math course within two years than students in the traditional pathway. Latino students saw comparable gains as well: 4.28 times more likely (48% vs. 11%) to successfully complete transfer level math within two years.

Figure 13: Successful Completion of Transfer Level Math within Two Years by Race/Ethnicity

7.0%11.2%

17.0%13.8%

33.3%

48.1%

64.5%

52.3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Black Latino White Total

Traditional

Accelerated

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Cuyamaca College first began offering its accelerated English pathway for students in fall 2012. Beginning at two levels below transfer, ENGL-099 prepares students to enter transfer level English (ENGL-120) after one semester of instruction (see Figure 18 in the Appendix for a diagram of the English pathway). Figure 14 compares the results of the accelerated statistics pathway with the traditional English pathway from fall 2012 through spring 2015. On average, 50 percent of students who entered the accelerated pathway completed a transfer level English course within two years of attempting ENGL-099. During the same time period, of those students who attempted ENGL-098 (i.e., English two levels below transfer), only 30 percent successfully completed the transfer-level English course within two years. In other words, students in the accelerated pathway were 1.66 times more likely to successfully complete ENGL-120 within two years than those who started in the traditional English pathway.

While acceleration has not eliminated differing outcomes by race and ethnicity, gaps between white students and black/Latino students have narrowed. Black students have seen nearly a doubling of English sequence completion (39% vs. 20%), whereas Latino students were 1.6 times more likely to complete the English sequence (43% vs. 27%) within two years.

Figure 14: Successful Completion of Transfer Level English within Two Years by Race/Ethnicity

20.3%

26.9%

35.5%

30.0%

38.9%

43.4%

55.8%

50.0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Black Latino White Total

Traditional

Accelerated

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COMPLETE

Degrees & Certificates Table 3: Number of Awards by Type at Cuyamaca College, 2009-2015

Table 4: Number of Students Receiving Awards by Type at Cuyamaca College, 2009-2015

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

A.A. Degree 162 155 181 182 212 191

A.A.-T Degree -- -- -- 34 82 103

A.S. Degree 215 285 307 403 393 351

A.S.-T Degree -- -- -- -- 18 77

Total Degrees 377 440 488 619 705 722

60+ Units -- -- -- -- -- --

30.0-59.9 Units 59 79 111 122 90 86

18.0-29.9 Units 69 81 86 92 77 69

12.0-17.9 Units -- -- -- -- -- --

Total Certificates 128 160 197 214 167 155

Total Awards 505 600 685 833 872 877

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Degree Only 258 301 315 353 432 461

Certificate Only 48 63 70 56 70 60

Both Degree & Certificate 59 73 77 103 70 61

Total Unduplicated Students 365 437 462 512 572 582

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Table 5: Number of Awards by Type at Grossmont College, 2009-2015

Table 6: Number of Students Receiving Awards by Type at Grossmont College, 2009-2015

Since fall 2010, the unduplicated student fall headcount of Latino students has increased by 14 percent and 24 percent at Cuyamaca College and Grossmont College respectively. Mirroring this trend, the number of Latino students receiving a degree or certificate during the last five years has steadily increased, albeit at much higher rates than the growth in enrollments: at Cuyamaca, the number of Latino students who have received an award

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Degrees

A.A. Degree 663 587 580 639 780 769

A.A.-T Degree -- -- 14 35 140 196

A.S. Degree 469 575 526 582 629 635

A.S.-T Degree -- -- -- -- 184 278

Total Degrees 1,132 1,162 1,120 1,256 1,733 1,878

Certificates

60+ Units 2 1 2 -- -- --

30.0-59.9 Units 248 368 575 751 985 1,033

18.0-29.9 Units 120 117 143 122 157 145

12.0-17.9 Units -- -- -- -- -- 94

Total Certificates 370 486 720 873 1,142 1,272

Total Awards 1,502 1,648 1,840 2,129 2,875 3,150

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Degree Only 787 707 463 442 464 417

Certificate Only 99 87 110 106 145 147

Both Degree & Certificate 240 340 528 643 835 882

Total Unduplicated Students 1,126 1,134 1,101 1,191 1,444 1,446

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has more than doubled since 2009-2010. Similarly, the number of Latino students who have received an award at Grossmont College has increased by 87 percent.

For both colleges, the growth in the number of Latino students receiving awards has outpaced the growth in Latino enrollments. In fall 2009, about 23 percent of Cuyamaca students and 21 percent of Grossmont students were Latino; but only 20 and 16 percent of students receiving awards in 2010-11 were Latino at Cuyamaca College and Grossmont College respectively. Assuming at least a two-year lag in enrollment and student achievement, the “proportion test” for 2010-11, shows considerable disproportionate impact at both colleges (Cuyamaca College: 0.85; Grossmont College: 0.75); however, by 2014-15 the proportion of Latino students earning an award either exceeded or neared the proportion of Latino students that were enrolled two years prior. For example, at Cuyamaca College 32 percent of students who received an award in 2014-15 were Latino; in fall 2012, about 29 percent of the overall student body were comprised of Latino students (proportion = 1.11). At Grossmont College, about 27 percent of students who received an award in 2014-15 were Latino, whereas Latino students represented about 24 percent of the students enrolled in fall 2012 (proportion = 0.91).

Figure 15: Unduplicated Students Receiving Awards at Cuyamaca College, 2009-2015

181

219213

271277

246

83 86

111

124

149

177

50

100

150

200

250

300

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

White Latino

+113%

+36%

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Figure 16: Unduplicated Students Receiving Awards at Grossmont College, 2009-2015

527

563

524

581

661 663

207176

211

258

351

386

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

White Latino

+87%

+26%

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APPENDIX

Figure 17: Math Pathways, Cuyamaca College

Two Levels Below

One Level Below

Transfer Level

MATH-096

MATH-160

Accelerated

MATH-090

MATH-103 MATH-110

MATH-090

MATH-125MATH-120 MATH-160

MATH-170 MATH-175 MATH-176 MATH-178

MATH-125MATH-120 MATH-160

Traditional

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Figure 18: Accelerated English Pathway, Cuyamaca College

Two Levels Below

One Level Below

Transfer Level

ENGL-099

ENGL-120

Accelerated

ENGL-098

ENGL-109/110

ENGL-120

Traditional

student success pathway outcomes...student success pathway outcomes office of research, planning,...

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