study on the potential for high-efficiency cogeneration … · cogeneration potential and of energy...

STUDY ON THE POTENTIAL

FOR HIGH-EFFICIENCY COGENERATION

IN PORTUGAL

(Final report)

20 December 2016

CHP2016 (Final Report)

Rapporteur: ISR–UC | INESC

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Index

1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 1

2 Overview of the energy consumption in Portugal .................................................................. 4

3 Description of the methodology adopted .............................................................................. 7

3.1 References for the calculation of the potential for thermal substitution ........................ 15

3.2 Limitations of the profiling resulting from the data available ......................................... 16

4 Agriculture and fisheries sector ........................................................................................... 18

4.1 Energy profile in the agriculture and fisheries sector ..................................................... 18

4.2 Description of the demand for heating and cooling ....................................................... 20

5 Industrial sector ................................................................................................................. 24

5.1 Energy profile in the industrial sector ........................................................................... 24


6 Services sector .................................................................................................................... 33

6.1 Energy profile in the services sector .............................................................................. 34


7 Residential sector ............................................................................................................... 43


8 Mapping of demand, including existing and projected infrastructures ................................. 51

8.1 Maps of existing infrastructures ................................................................................... 52

8.1.1 Map of active thermal power plants in Portugal ........................................................... 52

8.1.2 Map of active cogeneration producers in Portugal ....................................................... 52

8.1.3 Map of projected cogeneration plants .......................................................................... 53

8.2 Map of the agriculture and fisheries sector ................................................................... 53

8.3 Map of the industrial sector ......................................................................................... 55

8.4 Map of the services sector ............................................................................................ 57

8.5 Map of the residential Sector ....................................................................................... 58



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9 Identification of the high-efficiency cogeneration and of the potential created since the

previous study 69

9.1 Evolution of the number of cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 Period ............... 69

9.2 Evolution of the electric capacity of the cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 Period 73

9.3 District heating and cooling, and trigeneration .............................................................. 76

9.4 Identification of the technical potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in Portugal ....... 77

9.4.1 Definitions and assumptions – potential for cogeneration and for the consumption of thermal energy 77

9.4.2 Distribution of the consumption of thermal energy in the reference year by activity

sector 80

9.5 Technical potential of cogeneration and its evolution in 2014-2015 ............................... 82

9.6 Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration ...................................................... 87

9.6.1 Scenarios for evolution .................................................................................................. 87

9.6.2 Cost-benefit analysis ...................................................................................................... 93

9.7 Strategies, policies and measures for the realisation of the potential identified ............. 99

9.7.1 Cogeneration public support measures - definition of priority interest and sectors

.......................................................................................................................................99

9.7.2 Incentive system for existing cogeneration and possible improvements ................... 100

10 Conclusions and recommendations ................................................................................... 103

11 References ....................................................................................................................... 106

ANNEXES ................................................................................................................................. 107



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List of Figures

Figure 1.1 – Cogeneration installed capacity in the European Union (Source: Eurostat) ....................... 2

Figure 1.2 - Production of electricity in cogeneration v. ratio of electricity produced in cogeneration in

the European Union in 2014 (Source: Eurostat) ...................................................................................... 3

Figure 1.3 – Mix of fuels used in cogeneration in the European Union in 2014 (Source: COGEN)

.................................................................................................................................................................3

Figure 2.1 – Evolution of the consumption of primary energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG) .......................... 4

Figure 2.2 – Evolution of the consumption of final energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG) ............................... 5

Figure 2.3 – Evolution of the consumption of final energy by activity sector in ktoe (Source: DGEG) ... 6

Figure 3.1 - Summary sheet of the information contained in the database created within the scope of

this report ................................................................................................................................................ 9

Figure 3.2 – Desktop layout of the QGIS software ................................................................................ 12

Figure 4.1 - Breakdown of the final energy in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG) .... 19

Figure 4.2 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the

agriculture and fisheries Sector [Source: DGEG 2014] .......................................................................... 20

Figure 4.3 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the agriculture and fisheries sector [GWh] ................... 21

Figure 5.1 - Breakdown of final energy in the industrial sector [Source: DGEG] .................................. 26

Figure 5.2 - Evolution of the industry sub-sectors during the 2008-2014 period [Source: DGEG] ....... 28

Figure 5.3 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the

industrial sector [Source: DGEG 2014] .................................................................................................. 29

Figure 5.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the industrial sector [GWh] ........................................... 31

Figure 6.1 – Breakdown of final energy in the services sector (Source: DGEG) .................................... 35

Figure 6.2 - Evolution of consumption in the services sub-sectors during the period 2008-2014 [Source: DGEG] .37

Figure 6.3 – Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the

services sector [Source: DGEG 2014] ..................................................................................................... 39

Figure 6.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the services sector [GWh] ............................................. 40



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Figure 7.1 – Consumption of energy by dwelling broken down by final use in 2012 (Lapillonne, Bruno,

Karine Pollier 2015)................................................................................................................................ 43

Figure 7.2 – Consumption for heating by m2 (Lapillonne, Bruno, Karine Pollier 2015) ......................... 43

Figure 7.3 – Number of classic and dwelling buildings (INE 2015) ........................................................ 44

Figure 7.4 – Distribution of residential consumption by source in 2014 – figures in ktoe. Data: (DGEG

2014)45 Figure 7.5 – Average number of degrees day for the 1980-2004 period in the E-27 countries

(Bertoldi et al. 2012) 46 Figure 7.6 – Zoning for the purposes of thermal surrounding requirements

(Aguiar 2013) ......................................................................................................................................... 47

Figure 7.7 – Urban fabric areas. Data: DGT ........................................................................................... 48

Figure 7.8 – Number of dwellings with heating system per NUTS II region. Data: (INE 2011).............. 48

Figure 7.9 – Number of dwellings with heating system per NUTS II region – distribution per energy

source. (Source: INE 2011) ..................................................................................................................... 49

Figure 7.10 – Evolution of consumption in the residential sector (Source: DGEG) ............................... 49

Figure 7.11 – Determination of the tendency associated with the residential consumption data ....... 50

Figure 8.1 - Location of heat and power stations with a consumption of more than 20 GWh and of

incineration plants (Source: DGEG 2014) .............................................................................................. 52

Figure 8.2 - Municipalities with active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014) ........................ 53

Figure 8.3 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG 2014). ............................................................................................................................................................... 54

Figure 8.4 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector: heat and cooling (Source: DGEG 2014)

...............................................................................................................................................................55

Figure 8.5 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector (Source: DGEG 2014). .................... 56

Figure 8.6 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector: heat and cooling (Source: DGEG2014)............................................................................................................................................. 56

Figure 8.7 - Consumption by municipality in the services sector (Source: DGEG 2014). ...................... 57

Figure 8.8 - Definition of conurbations in COS2007 (Source: COS 2007). ............................................. 59

Figure 8.9 - Distribution of dwellings by civil parish. ............................................................................. 61

Figure 8.10 - Distribution of total annual consumption in the residential sector by civil parish using

real consumption statistics, with an estimated distribution of the consumption of biomass according

to hypothesis (ii) .................................................................................................................................... 62



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Figure 8.11 - Distribution of the annual heating consumption according to hypothesis (iii) ................ 63

Figure 8.12 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2, based on

approach (ii). .......................................................................................................................................... 64

Figure 8.13 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2, based on

approach (iii) .......................................................................................................................................... 65

Figure 8.14 - Distribution of consumption for cooling according to dwellings with air-conditioning ... 66

Figure 8.15 - Annual energy consumption in the residential sector in Madeira (Source: DGEG) ......... 67

Figure 8.16 - Density of consumption in the Azores (Source: DGEG) .................................................... 68

Figure 9.1 – Number of cogeneration plants according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG) ............ 70

Figure 9.2 – Location of cogeneration plants in 2014, according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG

2014) ...................................................................................................................................................... 70

Figure 9.3 – Geographic distribution of active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014) ............ 71

Figure 9.4 - Breakdown (percentage of the number of facilities) of the new cogeneration plants by

sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG) ................................................................. 71



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List of Tables

Table 1 - Proportion of the consumption of heat that can be supplied through a source of residual

heat (Klotz et al 2014) ............................................................................................................................ 16

Table 2 – Thermal needs in the agriculture and fisheries sector .......................................................... 21

Table 3 - Thermal needs in the industrial sector ................................................................................... 30

Table 4 – Thermal needs in the services sector ..................................................................................... 40

Table 5 - Electrical and thermal capacities of the cogeneration plants analysed for the period 2008-2014

...............................................................................................................................................................75

Table 6 - Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to

the DGEG (2010) .................................................................................................................................... 76

Table 7 - Energy consumption by sector in toe - 2014 (Source: DGEG) ................................................ 81

Table 8 - Energy consumption in the services sector - 2014 (Source: DGEG) ....................................... 82

Table 9 - Weight of cogeneration in 2014 by sector of activity (Source: DGEG) ................................... 83

Table 10 - Weight of cogeneration in the services sector in 2014 (Source: DGEG) .............................. 84

Table 11 - Calculation of the potential heating and cooling to be delivered by cogeneration units (Source: DGEG) ...................................................................................................................................... 86

Table 12 – Scenarios for evolution in MWe (Source: EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia. 2008 ..................... 88

Table 13 - Projected evolution of consumption of energy in Portugal between 2015 and 2035 (Source:

EU Reference Scenario 2016) ................................................................................................................ 90

Table 14 - Projected evolution of the production of electricity and of the proportion generated in

cogeneration units in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016) ................................................ 90

Table 15 – Projected evolution of consumption by industrial sub-sector in Portugal (Source: EU

Reference Scenario2016) ....................................................................................................................... 91

Table 16 – Projected evolution of residential consumption in Portugal (Source: EU Reference

Scenario2016) ........................................................................................................................................ 92

Table 17 - Projected evolution of consumption in the services and agriculture sectors in Portugal

between (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016) ................................................................................... 92

Table A2.18 - Case 1 - 5 kW engine (values per kW) ........................................................................... 110



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Table A2.19 - Case 2 - 50 kW engine (values per kW) ......................................................................... 110

Table A2.20 - Case 3 - 500 kW engine (values per kW) ....................................................................... 111

Table A2.21 - Case 4 - 2 MW engine (values per kW) .......................................................................... 111

Table A2.22 - Case 5 - 10 MW gas turbine (values per kW) ................................................................ 112



Table A2.25 - Case 8 - 100 MW CCGT (values per kW) ........................................................................ 113

Table A2.26 - Case 9 - 200 MW CCGT (values per kW) ........................................................................ 114

Table A2.27 - Case 10 - 450 MW CCGT (values per kW) ...................................................................... 114



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Index of acronyms

HWSP Hot water for sanitary purposes

CAE Economic activity code

COGEN PT Portuguese Association for Energy Efficiency and Promotion of Cogeneration

COGEN EU The European Association for the Promotion of Cogeneration

COS2007 Land use and land cover map for Continental Portugal for 2007

DGEG Directorate-General for Energy and Geology

DGT Directorate-General for the Territory

EDP Energias de Portugal

MS Member State

NG Natural gas

LPG Liquified petroleum gas

INE National Statistical Institute

REN Redes Energéticas Nacionais

GIS Geographical information system



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1 Introduction

In accordance with Article 14 of Directive 2012/27/EU on Energy Efficiency, the European

Commission required Member States to carry out a study on the identification of the high-efficiency

cogeneration potential and of energy efficient heating and cooling systems (taking into consideration

the principles contained in Annex VIII) for a period of ten years following the reference year used (in

the case of Portugal, 2014).

For that purpose, we used data provided by the Energy Planning and Statistics Services Directorate of

the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) relating to the 2008-2015 period, with the

consumption of each source of energy being allocated by economic activity code (CAE). Other

sources were also used as needed according to the data.

This report is divided into 11 chapters. This chapter is an introduction, whilst the second chapter

provides an overview of the energy consumption in Portugal. Chapter 3 describes the methodology

used in the calculations and in the production of this report, as well as the limitations found during

the study. In chapters 4 to 7 there is an energy profiling of each of the activity sectors, as well as a

description of the demand for heating and cooling in those sectors. Chapter 8 contains the mapping

required by Annex VIII of the directive. Chapter 9 details the high-efficiency cogeneration and the

technical and economic potential created since the last study. Chapter 10 contains the main

conclusions and recommendations of this study.

In the first part of the study, there is a description of the methodology used to process the data

acquired for the energy profiling of all the municipalities in Portugal from the available data and

existing limitations. For that purpose, an Excel database was created, which was fundamental for

undertaking this study.

The main energy sources of each sector were analysed with the aim of adequately profiling energy

needs, namely the demand for heating and cooling, and therefore providing a detailed evaluation of

each sector. The maps requested by Annex VIII of the directive and a critical analysis of those maps

were created based on the evaluations made.

After a short description of the current cogeneration situation in Portugal, we made an analysis of

the technical potential for cogeneration and efficient heating and cooling networks, as we well as an

analysis of the economic potential and an estimate of its evolution.



2

Figures 1.1 to 1.3 show the cogeneration installed capacities and the combustible fuels used in the

various countries of the European Union. Electricity production values are also shown, both in

absolute and relative terms. The rate of penetration of cogeneration in Portugal is similar to the

European average, and higher than the southern EU countries (Spain, France, Greece and Italy).

Portugal displays a positive characteristic in the high percentage of renewable energies in

cogeneration, surpassed only by Finland, Sweden and Austria.

Figure 1.1 – Cogeneration installed capacity in the European Union (Source: Eurostat)

Figure 1.1 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Capacidade de Cogeração Instalada na União Europeia em 2014

Cogeneration installed capacity in the European Union in 2014

Capacidade Instalada para Cogeração [GW] Cogeneration installed capacity [GW] Capacidade de Calor Thermal capacity Capacidade Elétrica Electrical capacity Países Countries Alemanha Germany Itália Italy Holanda Holland Polónia Poland Espanha Spain Finlândia Finland Reino Unido United Kingdom Dinamarca Denmark Bélgica Belgium Suécia Sweden República Checa Czech Republic França France Áustria Austria



3

Portugal Portugal Roménia Romania Hungria Hungary Bulgária Bulgaria Letónia Latvia Irlanda Ireland Grécia Greece Lituânia Lithuania Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Croácia Croatia Noruega Norway Luxemburgo Luxembourg Chipre Cyprus Malta Malta Eslováquia Slovakia

Figure 1.2 - Production of electricity in cogeneration v. ratio of electricity produced in cogeneration in the European Union in 2014 (Source: Eurostat)

Figure 1.2 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Produção de Eletricidade em Cogeração Vs. Rácio de Eletricidade Produzida em Cogeração na União Europeia em 2014

Production of electricity in cogeneration v. Ratio of electricity produced in cogeneration in the European Union in 2014

Produção de Eletricidade em Cogeração Generation of electricity in cogeneration Rácio de Eletricidade produzida Ratio of electricity generated Países Countries Alemanha Germany Itália Italy Holanda Holland Polónia Poland



4

Espanha Spain Finlândia Finland Reino Unido United Kingdom Dinamarca Denmark Bélgica Belgium Suécia Sweden República Checa Czech Republic França France Áustria Austria Portugal Portugal Roménia Romania Hungria Hungary Bulgária Bulgaria Letónia Latvia Irlanda Ireland Grécia Greece Lituânia Lithuania Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Croácia Croatia Noruega Norway Luxemburgo Luxembourg Chipre Cyprus Malta Malta Eslováquia Slovakia

Figure 1.3 - Mix of fuels used in the cogeneration in the European Union in 2014 (Source: COGEN)



5

Figure 1.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Mix de Combustíveis Utilizados na Cogeração na União Europeia em 2014

Mix of fuels used in the cogeneration in the European Union in 2014

Combustíveis Sólidos Solid fuels Petróleo e derivados Derivatives of petroleum Gás Natural Natural gas Renováveis Renewables Outros Combustíveis Other combustible fuels Alemanha Germany Itália Italy Holanda Holland Polónia Poland Espanha Spain Finlândia Finland Reino Unido United Kingdom Dinamarca Denmark Bélgica Belgium Suécia Sweden República Checa Czech Republic França France Áustria Austria Portugal Portugal Roménia Romania Hungria Hungary Bulgária Bulgaria Letónia Latvia Irlanda Ireland Grécia Greece Lituânia Lithuania Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Croácia Croatia Noruega Norway Luxemburgo Luxembourg Chipre Cyprus Malta Malta Eslováquia Slovakia

2 Overview of the energy consumption in Portugal

Figure 2.1 shows the evolution of the consumption of primary energy in Portugal in ktoe. It can be

seen that in 2014 the consumption of oil represented around 44 %, natural gas 17 %, renewable

energies 26 % and coal 13 % of the total consumption.



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Figure 2.1 - Evolution of the consumption of primary energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG)

Figure 2.1 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Carvão Coal Petróleo Oil GN Natural gas Saldo Imp. En. Elétrica Balance of imported electricity Renováveis Renewables O – Outros resíduos não renováveis O – Other non-renewable residue

The evolution of the consumption of primary energy was influenced by various factors, namely the

following:

• Reduced economic growth, with a negative growth figure in some years as a result of the

2008 international crisis, which was aggravated by the need to ensure the sustainability of

the Portuguese external debt;

• Substantial reduction in the consumption of oil due as the result of an increase in prices,

reduction of the economic activity of companies and an increase in energy efficiency;

• Significant growth in the production of renewable energies, with a focus on the generation of wind energy.



7

Figure 2.2 shows the evolution of the consumption of final energy in Portugal in ktoe. It can be seen that in 2014 the consumption of oil represented around 48 %, electricity 25 % and natural gas 10 %. The use of heat represented around 9 % and the consumption of biomass 7 %.

Figure 2.2 - Evolution of the consumption of final energy in ktoe (Source: DGEG)

Figure 2.2 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Petróleo Oil GN Natural gas Carvão Coal Biomassa Biomass E. Elétrica Electrical energy Calor Heat O – Outras formas de energia O – Other forms of energy

The evolution of the consumption of final energy was limited by factors similar to the primary energy,

and it should be emphasised that the consumption of electricity, natural gas and demand for heat

remained more or less constant.

Figure 2.3 shows the evolution of the consumption of final by activity sector in Portugal in ktoe. It can

be seen that in 2014, the consumption in the services sector represented around 12 %, the industrial



8

sector around 30 %, the domestic sector around 18 % and the agriculture and fisheries sector 2 %.

The transport and construction and public works sectors amounted to the remaining 38 %.

In this figure, one can see in more detail the overall reduction in the consumptions of final energy by

activity sector, and it is worth highlighting the large reduction in the transport, construction and

public works, as well as in the industrial sectors.

Figure 2.3 - Evolution of the consumption of final energy by activity sector in ktoe (Source: DGEG)

Figure 2.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Transportes Transportation Indústria Industry Construção e Obras Públicas Construction and public works Serviços Services Doméstico Domestic Agricultura e Pescas Agriculture and fisheries



9

3 Description of the methodology adopted

The carrying out of the work described in this report aimed at answering the specifications of Annex

VII of Directive 2012/27/EU using the available data. This chapter describes the methodologies for

each of the stages carried out.

The first stage was to analyse all the data available or supplied by the DGEG, namely:

• National energy balances;

• Consumption of electricity and of the main combustible fuels by council area;

• Survey on the consumption of energy in the domestic sector 2010;

• Statistics on construction and housing and censuses (National Statistical Institute).

However, this data did not include, for example, the breakdown by activity sector of the final use of

the energy so as to allow the profiling of the demand for heating and cooling. For that reason, it was

necessary to carry out some simplifications in order to estimate that consumption as accurately as

possible, namely:

• The data resulting from the survey on the consumption of energy in the domestic sector from 2010 served as reference for the breakdown of the domestic consumption by final use and by source, enabling the creation of a picture of consumption from the censuses data.

• The data on the sales of electricity and combustible fuels, together with the statistical data on heating systems, allowed us to obtain fairly accurate estimates for the consumption of energy for residential heating. Similarly, it was possible to obtain estimates on the distribution of consumption for cooling from the statistics of ownership of air conditioning.

• Consumption for the various activity sectors, industry, services and agriculture and fisheries was estimated from sales statistics by council area. However, in order to break down those consumptions by final use, it was necessary to use distribution estimates obtained from specialist literature.

The DGEG provided the data on the consumption of primary energy broken down by source of

energy, by municipality and by year, for the period 2008-2014. The DGEG also provided data on the

current situation of the existing cogeneration producers in Portugal and on their evolution during the

respective period, including their location, economic activity code, installed capacity and

serviceability. This information was complemented by data from other sources, such as: the supplier

of last resort EDP Universal, the cogeneration association (COGEN), the statistical portal Pordata and

the National Statistical Institute (INE).



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The data was compiled in a database, allowing the creation of a picture of the consumption and of

the needs of each activity sector in geographic terms, as well as the calculation and analyses needed

to undertake this study, in accordance with the specifications of the directive. Therefore, this

database acted as the input for the mapping software used and as the starting point for the

evaluation of the high-efficiency cogeneration potential.

The following Figure 3.1 summarises the location of the information contained in the database. The

year of 2014 was used as reference for the breakdown of consumption by energy source (as per the

request made by the DGEG).



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Figure 3.1 - Summary sheet of the information contained in the database created within the scope of this report

Figure 3.1 Legend:

Worksheets – Consolidated database Summary Instructions for the use of the consolidated database. Sources of energy v. CAE 2008-2014

Database with totals at national level where the various consumptions were inserted, broken down by CAE and by source of energy for 2008-2014.

Electricity Breakdown of the consumption of electricity by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

NG Breakdown of the consumption of NG by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

LPG Breakdown of the consumption of LPG (butane, propane and automotive LPG) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Fuel Breakdown of the consumption of Fuel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Diesels Breakdown of the consumption of diesel (automotive gas oil and dyed diesel) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Petrol Breakdown of the consumption of petrol by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Biodiesel Breakdown of the consumption of biodiesel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Lubricants Breakdown of the consumption of lubricants by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Asphalt Breakdown of the consumption of asphalt by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Solvents Breakdown of the consumption of solvents by CAE, municipality and



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activity sector for 2014. Benzine Breakdown of the consumption of benzine by CAE, municipality and

activity sector for 2014. Paraffin Breakdown of the consumption of paraffin by CAE, municipality and

activity sector for 2014. Petroleum products for illumination and as propellant

Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum products for illumination and as propellant by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Naphtha Breakdown of the consumption of chemical naphtha by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Petroleum coke Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum coke by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Aromatic raw materials

Breakdown of the consumption of aromatic raw materials by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Evolution by sector Evolution of consumption by activity sector for the 2008-2014 period. Evolution of sub-sectors – Services

Evolution of consumption by sub-sector of activity (services) for the 2008-2014 period.

Evolution of sub-sectors – Industry

Evolution of consumption by sub-sector of activity (industry) for the 2008-2014 period.

Agriculture and fisheries sector analysis

Analysis of the total consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector for 2014 by district. Graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district for 2014.

Industrial sector analysis

Analysis of the total consumption in the industrial sector for districts with more than 20 GWh of consumption. Graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption for districts with more than 20 GWh of consumption for 2014.

Services sector analysis

Analysis of the total consumption in the services sector for 2014 by district. Graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district for 2014.

Total Total consumption values by municipality and activity sector in GWh and TOE for 2014.

RE generation Only for consultation of the values supplied by the DGEG for the generation of renewable energies and installed capacity for the 1995-2014 period.

Consumption of coal 2014

Only for consultation of the values supplied by the DGEG for the coal energy balance for 2014.

Location of cogeneration producers 2014

Location and CAE of the cogeneration producers registered in Portugal in 2014. Evolution of the number of cogeneration producers in Portugal (2008-2014).

List of CAEs List of CAEs active in Portugal in 2014. Analysis of potential

Analysis of the CAEs with potential for cogeneration in the various activity sectors (agriculture and fisheries, industry and services) in municipalities with a total consumption of more than 20 GWh (total of electricity and heat/cooling) in Portugal for 2014.

Energy balance v. breakdown

Compares the data from the DGEG energy balance with the data of the breakdown of consumption by municipality/activity sector for 2014

The demand for heating and cooling was determined taking into consideration the average values for

the needs of each sector, therefore reaching the figure for the amount of heat replaceable by high-

efficiency cogeneration. In agriculture, the thermal needs in terms of cooling are much higher than

heating needs, as cooling is essentially used for the preservation of agricultural produce (cold stores).



13

Cooling is basically generated from electricity, which means that cogeneration is not very relevant for

this activity sector. The fact that there are very few cogeneration producers registered with the CAE

of this sector serves as evidence to that effect. With regard to the industry and services, the situation

varies a lot. The industrial processes and services provided to very heterogeneous target audiences

have energy needs that vary considerably, justifying the use of cogeneration systems in some cases.

According to the Directive, it is necessary to identify the following without ignoring the protection of

commercially sensitive information:

i. heating and cooling demand points, including: ● municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0,31, and

● industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh,

ii. existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructures;

iii. potential heating and cooling supply points, including:

● electricity generation installations with a total annual electricity production of more than 20 GWh,

● waste incineration plants,

● existing and planned cogeneration installations using technologies referred to in Part II of Annex I, and district heating installations;

With regard to the mapping of residential consumption in municipalities and conurbations, that

information was collected from the official entities responsible for maintaining it, namely the

National Statistical Institute (INE) and the Directorate-General for the Territory (DGT).

It was only possible to obtain areas and number of dwellings from INE, and it was not possible to

calculate land occupation areas. The data from the 2011 censuses allowed the calculation of the

housing density (number of buildings or number of dwellings per km2), but without any information

on the area occupied by buildings.

The Land use and land cover map for Continental Portugal for 2007 (COS2007), which was produced

based on the visual interpretation of high resolution orthorectified aerial spatial images, was

obtained from the DGT. Through the COS2007 it is possible to identify areas marked as conurbations

and compare them with the Official administrative map of Portugal. However, the definition of

conurbation does not allow us to determine with precision the 'plot ratio' as defined in the directive,

which should correspond to the ratio of the building floor area to the land area in a given territory.

The areas identified as conurbations correspond to all the areas where the soil has been sealed,

including streets and also small gardens connected to dwelling houses. As such, there is no exact

correspondence to the 'building floor area' as defined in the directive. Even then, it appears to be the

closest definition, being the conurbations the conjunction of areas defined as continuous urban 1 The ratio between the building floor area to the land area in a given territory.



14

fabric and discontinuous urban fabric, defined as per Figure 8.8.

The total conurbations area is shown in Figure 7.7, where it is possible to see the relevance of the

metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto and the concentration in the coastal region between them.

However, just the representation of the conurbations does not allow the identification of the

potential for the application of micro-generation, or of the supply through district heating and

cooling networks, without understanding the levels of consumption of those areas, having as

reference the low levels of consumption of heating in Portugal and the short duration of the heating

season.

In order to understand the heating and cooling needs of each region, it would be necessary to obtain

statistics on consumption distributed geographically. However, there is no information containing the

sources of energy with a sufficiently detailed level of distribution, namely with respect to biomass

consumption, which has a weight of 30 % of the global consumption in the domestic sector and

which will have different levels of use, which is bound to be higher in rural places outside urban

areas.

The distribution of consumption by final use was estimated based on some known statistics of

average distribution, based on national consumption surveys (INE/DGEG 2011) or based on questions

included in the censuses.

In this manner, the following hypotheses were therefore formulated in order to estimate

consumption at the smallest possible administrative level (the civil parish), with the ultimate

objective of obtaining values for the consumption of space heating, water heating and cooling:

i. The simple application of the average consumption by dwelling to the distribution of dwellings of usual residence by civil parish, which were obtained from the censuses, based on the INE's estimates for 2014. This hypothesis only allows us to measure the distribution of dwellings in Portugal on a scale associated with the energy consumption, it does not take into account the differences in consumption associated with the climate of each region or other factors that affect consumption.

ii. Using the values for consumption or sales by council area for domestic use for all energy sources (with the exception of biomass) based on data supplied by the DGEG, distributing that consumption by the civil parishes in proportion to the number of occupied dwelling houses per civil parish, according to the statistic 'Family homes of usual residence (No.) per geographic location (as of the date of the 2011 censuses)' (INE). The biomass consumption was estimated by the distribution of the global biomass consumption for the sector indicated by the DGEG for 2014 by the different civil parishes, using the following statistic as reference for the distribution of the total consumption of that energy source: 'Whether there is a heating system and main source of energy used for heating - Ten-year period' (INE), namely dwellings that use biomass as the main heating system.

iii. Using the above statistics to estimate the consumption by civil parish of each heating energy source, distributing the estimate of the total consumption for space heating of each energy



15

source by the civil parishes in proportion to the number of dwellings with that main heating system in each civil parish.

iv. Using the statistic 'Family homes of usual residence (No.) per geographic location (as of the date of the 2011 censuses)' (INE) and 'Existence of air conditioning - ten-year period' (INE) to estimate the consumption by civil parish for cooling, distributing the total estimated consumption for space cooling by the civil parishes in proportion to the number of dwellings with air conditioning.

The previous four hypotheses include significant simplifications, but they allow a better assessment

of the existing variations in the consumption of energy in Portugal, to enable a better identification

of the potential for intervention. The limitations associated with the data available highlight the fact

that approximate values have to be calculated for unknown variables. The general principle adopted

was to use available data with the greatest possible spatial resolution.

The QGIS software was used for the creation of the geographic mapping. This open source

Geographic Information System (GIS) licensed under the GNU General Public License (GPL) is an

official project of the Open Source Geospatial Foundation (OSGeo). It is compatible with Linux, Unix,

Mac OSX, Windows and Android, presenting a wide range of functionality and supporting many

different formats of vectors, rasters, databases and geo-services. Figure 3.2 shows the desktop layout

of this software.

Figure 3.2 – Desktop layout of the QGIS software



16

Since the level of detail of the consumption data only goes as far as municipalities, it was not possible

to obtain a breakdown by specific areas, namely industrial areas, business parks, residential areas,

etc. In the cases of the sectors of agriculture and fisheries, industry and services, the mapping was

made based on the administrative and geographic boundaries of the Portuguese municipalities. For

the residential sector, it was possible to use the geographic boundaries of the civil parishes, since in

the residential sector there are no sub-sectors that make consumption heterogeneous, therefore

allowing a more rigorous analysis. In the remaining sectors, given their diversity and the geographic

spread of their constituting companies, we chose to break down the analysis by municipality

administrative boundaries.

Cogeneration power plants (both working and projected), incinerators and thermal power plants

with a production of more than 20 GWh in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira were

mapped in accordance with the requirements of Annex VIII of the directive2. The directive also

requires the mapping of industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of

more than 20 GWh. Since the data supplied only contained consumption by CAE at the municipality

level, it was not possible to carry out that analysis. In addition, the industry (especially older industry)

is located outside industrial areas, with many service companies installed in the latter. As such, it was

not possible to obtain the consumption of the industrial areas, especially those corresponding to the

industrial sector. Therefore, we decided to carry out an analysis based on the geographic boundaries

of each municipality, thus identifying the municipalities that have annual thermal needs of more than

20 GWh. In these maps we used a scale of colours according to the GWh consumption of each

municipality.

The identification of the high-efficiency cogeneration and of the potential created since the previous

cogeneration study was undertaken by comparing the report published in 2010 with the data

supplied by the DGEG relating to the cogeneration units in operation, including their location,

installed output, production of electricity and thermal energy and primary energy consumption.

In order to estimate the evolution of the demand for heating and cooling during the 10 years after

the reference year, the data of the PRIMES model (Capros et al, 2016), updated in 2016 and supplied

by the DGEG were used. This data allows us to estimate the evolution of the consumption of the

main industry sub-sectors, as well as the consumption of the residential and services sectors

between 2015 and 2025, although the last two in an aggregate manner.

The determination of the high-efficiency cogeneration technical potential was carried out based on

the energy balance for 2014 (DGEG), namely on the consumption values for thermal energy by

economic activity sector, and by correcting the figure corresponding to the consumption of thermal

energy, as opposed to consumption which is easily identifiable as ineligible for supply through

cogeneration, namely road fuel and oil products not for energy. The combustible fuels consumption

2 Directive 2012/27/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council of 25 October 2012 on energy efficiency.



17

statistics supplied by the DGEG also allowed some additional discrimination, which was particularly

useful for the services sector.

However, there are still consumption figures that are ineligible for supply through cogeneration, such

as consumption for cooking or, in the case of the industry, in high temperature processes that

require the direct burning of fuel, such as in ovens. Therefore, in order to carry out a precise

calculation of the cogeneration technical potential, it would be necessary to have detailed data on a

large number of different energy consumers, so as to be able to estimate in each case the share of

heating, cooling and electricity that could be produced through cogeneration. Considering that this

information is not readily available, it was therefore necessary to adopt a simplified approach to

estimate approximately the share of consumption of heating that can be replaced in each sector of

activity. For that reason, and since the level of consumption in the industrial sector is less dependent

on the specific characteristics of the country or territory, including the dependency on weather

events, the reference values documented in the bibliography were used to estimate the maximum

technical potential in the industry sub-sectors, based on the estimates of consumption of thermal

energy excluding road fuels. It should be noted that the real technical potential will have other

important restrictions, namely the limitations of the electricity network, which cannot be determined

in a macro approach.

However, the fulfilment of all this potential is not realistic, since it does not take into account the

pattern of functioning of the cogeneration units, the need for maintenance interruptions, or basic

aspects such as the minimum functioning capacity. As mentioned in other reports, the technical

potential is surely higher than the attainable potential, and the latter should be the one used as

reference in any political decision. However, the exact determination of this attainable potential is

particularly difficulty since there is no detailed data or basis for comparison, given the variety of

approaches and of the nature of the industry and other entities using the heat and cooling that is

generated.

Therefore, only the sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry with greater cogeneration potential

were considered, both because of the amount of heat consumed, and because of the amount of heat

that can be replaced, namely the following:

• Food, drinks and tobacco,

• Textiles,

• Paper and paper products,

• Chemicals and plastics,

• Wood and wooden articles,

• Rubber.



18

Similarly, we have only considered the services sub-sectors where the use of cogeneration is already

meaningful, corresponding to around 40 % of the consumption of electricity and thermal energy

(excluding road fuels) of this sector. It is, therefore, assumed that the margin of error arising from the

non-fulfilment of the total potential in these sectors will be compensated by the existing potential in

the less significant sectors.

The evolution of the potential is determined based on the application of the same assumptions

related to the evolution of the demand for heating and cooling, determined based on the PRIMES

model.

In order to analyse possible strategies, policies and measures for the realisation of the potential

identified, it is considered fundamental to identify first of all the interest in that implementation

given the outcomes of the assessment in the most important or more indicated target sectors, whilst

analysing the outcomes of the previous stages. It is also important to analyse the existing incentives

and their possible influence in obtaining the intended outcome. Given these two points, one can

anticipate the possible need to modify or add measures that adjust the interest of individual

investors to the social interest of promoting the realization of the identified potential.

The estimate of the economic potential was carried out based on the methodology used in the

European Project CODE2 (Code2, 2014) and also based on the data supplied by REN (REN, 2016) with

the predicted evolution of consumption until 2024.

Finally, there was a cost-benefit analysis carried out of individual projects associated to industrial

units and/or large service buildings, when the heating consumption justified it. This analysis focused

on the generic viability of those projects on an individual basis in terms of electrical capacity, taking

into account different size categories and certain conditions that limited use under two essential

perspectives: the perspective of the investor and the perspective of society.

This work was carried out taking into account the fact that the data provided had some limitations,

which will be detailed in sub-chapter 3.2 of this report.

3.1 References for the calculation of the potential for thermal substitution

The precise calculation of the cogeneration technical potential would require detailed data on a large

number of various consumers of energy, so as to be able to estimate in each case the share of heat,

cooling and electricity that could be generated through cogeneration. As mentioned, it was necessary

to use a simplified approach to attempt to estimate the share of the consumption of heat that can be

replaced for each sector of activity. For that reason, and since consumption in the industrial sector is

less dependent on the specific characteristics of the country or territory, and also less dependent on

weather, it was decided to use the reference values documented in the bibliography to estimate the

maximum technical potential in the industry sub-sectors. It should be noted that the real technical

potential could face other important restrictions, namely those imposed by the electricity network,



19

which cannot be determined in a macro approach.

According to Klotz et al 2014, the consumption of heat at temperatures under 300 °C, which are

considered to be possible to replace for a source of residual heat, are distributed by the different

sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry, according to Table 1:

Table 1 - Proportion of the consumption of heat that can be supplied through a source of residual heat (Klotz et al 2014)

Food and tobacco 100.00 %

Car manufacturing 82.00 %

Quarries and mines 99.00 %

Glass and ceramic products 7.00 %

Raw chemicals 41.00 %

Rubber and plastic 100.00 %

Machinery 69.00 %

Processing of metals 19.00 %

Metal fabrication 30.00 %

Non-ferrous metals/foundries 32.00 %

Paper 100.00 %

Other chemicals 90.00 %

Processing of stone and soil 10.00 %

Rest of the economy 81.00 %

3.2 Limitations of the profiling resulting from the data available

Directive 2012/27/EU requires an exhaustive assessment of the national potential for heating and

cooling, which implies the creation of a map of the national territory that identifies heating and

cooling demand areas, including:

• municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0.33;

• industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of more than 20

GWh,

• existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructures.

With regard to the first point, the methodology used to attempt to overcome the limitation resulting

from the lack of that information has already been described. However, it should be emphasized that

the result that was possible to reach will not correspond exactly to the required, as it is not possible

to subtract some areas not corresponding to buildings, namely streets.

In relation to the second point, no information was obtained that allowed the precise determination

3 The ratio between the building floor area to the land area in a given territory.



20

of the geographic location of industrial areas, much less their consumption. Many of the so-called

industrial parks are often a cluster of buildings of service companies with small consumption. As a

matter of fact, the industrial fabric of most municipalities is dispersed throughout the territory. Since

it was impossible to achieve a single identification of industrial consumption that could allow the

consideration of a search by area of the large energy consuming industries, data from the DGEG was

used for each municipality individually, so as to identify consumption exclusively within the industrial

sector of more than 20 GWh. In this methodology, the zone was delimited by the municipality

boundaries.

On the third point, we only know of the location of the heating and cooling urban supply network of

the Parque das Nações in Lisbon, which in any case will be the only effective example of that type of

network, although there are also other small networks supplying industrial or service buildings.



21

4 Agriculture and fisheries sector

4.1 Energy profile in the agriculture and fisheries sector

In order to create an adequate profile of energy needs, namely the demand for heat and cooling, it

will be necessary to identify what are the main energy sources and determine the consumption of

primary energy in this activity sector.

Figure 4.1 shows the breakdown of final energy in the agriculture and fisheries sector for the year

2014, as well as the evolution of consumption in terms of final energy for this activity sector for the

period 2008-2014. However, this breakdown does not include the consumption of renewable

energies, namely biomass, since there is no official data for the consumption of this type of energy

source for this sector broken down by municipality.

Looking at Figure 4.1, it can be seen that the most important energy sources are diesel, followed by

electricity, natural gas (NG) and LPG (propane, butane and automotive LPG). There are also some

relatively important consumptions of fuel, petrol and petroleum products (for illumination and as

propellant).

In terms of evolution of consumption, it can be seen that the consumption of diesel saw a significant

reduction between 2009 and 2012, which can be explained by the slowing of the economy, and also

due to the significant increase in the price of oil. The reduction in the consumption of diesel can also

be explained by a reduction in the fishing fleet during this period, which has a consumption of

significant weight in this sector (INE, Fishing Statistics 2010). In relation to electricity, consumption

remained relatively constant during the 2008-2012 period, and it only saw a reduction in 2013 and

2014. This reduction can be due to several reasons, such as the slowing of the economy, or due to an

increased energy efficiency as a result of the installation of more efficient illumination equipment

and systems.

The consumption of LPG has followed a negative trend since 2008, largely due to the increase in the

price of oil, especially during the period of the European financial crisis, and also due to the reduction

of activity during the same period. Another reason for this decrease might have been the increase in

the use of other (cheaper) energy sources, leading to an increase in the use of biomass. NG followed

the opposite trend, with an increase in consumption between 2008 and 2013 as a result of the fact

that it is cheaper that LPG or diesel; this tendency was only reverted in 2014. There are also other

combustible fuels being consumed, although in smaller amounts than the above and of reduced

importance for the general picture. That is the case of petrol and petroleum products (for

illumination and as propellant), which are used in very specific situations and/or with very specific

equipment.


19

Petroleum as

Electricity LPG Petrol Chemical Illumination

Naphtha and Propellant

Diesel Fuel Petroleum Lubricants Asphalt

coke

Paraffin Solvents NG

2008 85.873 8 806 995 0 930 264 470 2 374 0 391 0 0 0 3 318

2009 84 830 7 157 1 492 0 1 079 238 609 3 599 0 456 0 1 0 4 508

2010 88 164 7 419 1 078 0 932 233 932 4 011 0 420 0 0 0 6 313 2011 84 381 6 293 436 0 726 237 207 4 673 0 341 0 0 0 7 596

2012 86 369 6 400 486 0 800 234 760 2 560 0 329 0 0 0 8 170

2013 79 573 5 123 859 0 705 269 588 1 874 0 309 0 0 0 9 893

2014 70 912 4 644 480 0 592 266 630 3 143 0 342 0 0 0 7 862

Cons

umpt

ion


280 000 260 000 240 000 220.000 200 000 180 000 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000

80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000

0

Agriculture and fisheries

Coal (hard coal/anthracite/cok

e)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 4.1 - Breakdown of final energy in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG)


20

Dist

ricts

/ Isl

ands

4.2 Description of the demand for heat and cooling

Energy consumption associated with this sector is very heterogeneous. The preferred areas for

agricultural production are those where both the climate and soil are most adequate for that activity

and activities associated with fishing are restricted to the coastal area. As such, the consumption in

this sector in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores, broken down by district, has the

distribution shown in Figure 4.2.

Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the agriculture and fisheries sector

Viseu 92.78 Vila Real 27.70

Viana do Castelo Setúbal

Santarém

23.63 311.62

344.88

Porto Portalegre

Lisbon Leiria

Guarda Faro

Évora

12.64

48.84

90.19

164.04

238.77

277.78

315.07

Coimbra 68.77 Castelo Branco

Bragança Braga

Beja Aveiro

Madeira Azores

25.03

19.30

64.93

88.24

128.30

129.59

297.13 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00

Energy Consumption [GWh]

Figure 4.2 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in

the agriculture and fisheries sector [Source: DGEG 2014]

Figure 4.2 shows that consumption in this sector has a higher incidence in the strip between Setúbal

and Leiria, although there are other regions in Continental Portugal with high consumption rates,

such as Évora, Porto, Braga and Aveiro. The abovementioned strip of territory has a high density of

agricultural holdings, fruit and vegetable holdings, etc., which results in a significant percentage of

consumption at national level. This strip of territory also has a more temperate climate and smaller

variations in temperature than regions further north or south, therefore allowing higher production

rates. It is also important to highlight that the Azores show one of the highest consumption rates in

this sector, which are the result of the agricultural holdings present in that region.


21

According to the data made available by the DGEG in the 2014 energy balance, the consumption of

thermal energy for heating represents 4.66 % of the energy consumption of the agriculture and

fisheries sector.

The consumption of energy in this sector is mostly associated with the production of cooling in

refrigeration and freezing chambers. The estimate made of the breakdown of this type of

consumption was based on a study carried out by the University of Porto (Clito Afonso, Hugo Manuel

Pinto and João Paulo Pinto, 2016), which states that, on average, 72 % of the electricity consumption

in agriculture and 61 % of the electricity consumption in fisheries in Portugal are for cooling. These

values result in an average of 66.5 % (in respect of the consumption of electricity) for the production

of cooling in the agriculture and fisheries sector.

As such, and for the purposes of the calculation of the heating and cooling needs in agriculture and

fisheries, the ratios in Table 2 were applied.

Table 2 - Thermal needs in the agriculture and fisheries sector

Agriculture and fisheries

Heating needs 4.66 % of the total energy consumption of the sector

Cooling needs 66.5 % of the electricity consumption of the sector

Using the abovementioned values for the consumption percentages of heating and cooling, it can be

seen that the demand for heat and cooling has the distribution shown in figure 4.3.

Figure 4.3 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the agriculture and fisheries sector [GWh]


22

Figure 4.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Necessidades de Calor/Frio por Distrito no Setor da Agricultura e Pescas [GWh]

Heat/cooling needs by district in the agriculture and fisheries sector [GWh]

Açores The Azores Lisboa Lisbon

The distribution of consumption by district allows us to have an initial idea of the regions where we

will most likely find high concentrations of consumption, in an attempt to identify areas with a

consumption above the 20 GWh specified by the directive, and which will be the target of the

mapping carried out in chapter 8 based on the consumption by council area, the highest possible

level of detail with the existing data. Figure 4.3 shows several districts (corresponding to 36

municipalities) above 20 GWh. In terms of municipalities, there are only two municipalities (Almada

and Vila Franca de Xira) where the consumption of heat or cooling in the agriculture and fisheries

sector is above 20 GWh.

Figure 4.4 summarises this information.


23

Total number of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores - 307

Percentage of municipalities with consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector of more than 20 GWh (top graph).

Percentage of municipalities with heat and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh (bottom graph).

Consumption by municipalities in the agriculture and fisheries sector

% of municipalities with consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector of more than 20 GWh

% of municipalities with consumption in the agriculture and fisheries sector of less than 20 GWh

Consumption of heat and cooling by municipalities in the agriculture and fisheries sector

% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of more than 20 GWh

% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of less than 20 GWh

Figure 4.4 - Statistics of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores for the Agriculture and Fisheries Sector (Source: DGEG 2014)


24

5 Industrial sector

The industrial sector is not considered to be dependent on the climate variations from region to

region, since most of the thermal needs result from the manufacturing and production process itself.

It is important to draw a profile of the energy consumption patterns of the various industry sub-

sectors, so as to put them into groups, thus simplifying the analysis.

Since the heating and cooling needs are very heterogeneous as far as their use is concerned (which

means that the process of profiling them is a very complex process), we identified the average values

for the demand of heating and cooling in the industrial sector based on consumption data from 2014

and on studies carried out by several entities (ADENE, FEUP, ISR-University of Coimbra, etc.). These

values will be explained in more detail on Chapter 5.2.

5.1 Energy profile in the industrial sector

In order to create a profile of energy needs, namely the demand for heat and cooling in the industrial

sector and its spatial distribution, it will be necessary to identify what are the main energy sources of

energy and determine the consumption of primary energy in this activity sector. Figure 5.1 shows the

breakdown of final energy for 2014, as well as the evolution of consumption in terms of final energy

for this activity sector for the 2008-2014 period. However, this breakdown does not include the

consumption of renewable energies, namely biomass, since there is no official data for the

consumption of this energy source for this sector broken down by municipality.

Looking at Figure 5.1, it can be seen that the most important energy sources are NG, electricity,

petroleum coke and LPG. There is also a relevant level of consumption of diesel and fuel. In terms of

evolution of consumption, it can be seen that the consumption of NG has been increasing year-on-

year, with the exception of 2009. The decrease in 2009 can be explained by the reduction in

industrial activity caused by a reduction in demand as the result of the economic crisis. In 2013 and

2014 the economy started recovering again and there was an increase in demand in the internal and

external markets, which resulted in an increase in the consumption of NG. However, there was a

slight reduction in consumption in 2014.

The consumption of electricity in the industrial sector has remained very stable throughout the years.

This consumption is often not directly associated with production or with the amount of products

manufactured; as it is often associated with the parts of the production process for which

consumption does not vary much according to the levels of production.


25

Until 2012, petroleum coke showed a similar trend to chemical naphtha. In 2013 that trend was

suddenly reversed and its consumption has been increasing. This product is mainly used as

combustible fuel in the cement and ceramics industry, although in a much smaller quantity in the

latter; for that reason, the increase in consumption can be associated with an increase in activity in

companies within these sectors.

The consumption of LPG in the industrial sector has not had a constant pattern of evolution, showing

several increases and decreases. From 2013 there was a period of two years where its consumption

increased effectively, with a marked increase in 2014. The remaining sources of energy have a very

reduced level of consumption, since they are used in very specific circumstances.

Analysing some of the industrial sub-sectors, it is possible to have a better idea of the energy sources

used the most, as well as the evolution of consumption by sub-sector over time (Figure 5.2). The data

shown demonstrates the particularities of each sector and, on the whole, shows that the two main

sources of energy in these sub-sectors are natural gas and electricity, although there is also a large

level of use of diesel and fuel in the food industry.



26

Petroleum Electricity Chemical as

Coal Petroleum (Hard coal/An

LPG Petrol NaphthaIllumination and

Propellant

Diesel Fuel Coke Lubricants Asphalt Paraffin Solvents NG tracite/Co ke

2008 1 416 091 231 433 1 907 699 151 43 129 571 213 065 534 506 17 866 20 797 10 257 6 199 1 184 665 71 319

2009 1 295 602 116 589 1 676 612 907 41 82 588 199 611 462 500 15 229 14 011 8 436 4 644 1 058 488 22 349

2010 1 408 192 148 372 3 306 935 320 52 123 862 198 457 441 078 19 043 19 759 9 737 4 219 1 250 307 50 221

2011 1 388 777 172 645 143 866 974 26 115 311 136 662 374 878 17 329 4 928 10 864 3 637 1 298 502 20 239

2012 1 342 949 80 623 422 591 164 30 91 822 122 683 313 305 12 214 4 810 11 046 3 477 1 315 553 18 761

2013 1 347 236 352 079 31 560 933 28 89 925 90 527 334 823 9 317 0 9 485 3 703 1 566 590 18 620

2014 1 364 759 550 641 18 536 589 54 101 401 91 214 384 177 11 179 0 9 502 2 099 1 529 620 12 386

Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Cons

umpt

ion

1 600 000

Industry

1 400 000

1 200 000

1 000 000

800 000

600 000

400 000

200 000

0

Figure 5.1 - Breakdown of final energy in the industrial sector [Source: DGEG]



27

Cons

umpt

ion

Co

nsum

ptio

n

Cons

umpt

ion

Co

nsum

ptio

n

150 000

100 000

50 000

0

CAE 10 - Food Industries

150 000

100 000

50 000

0

CAE 13 - Manufacture of Textiles

Energy Source Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CAE 24 - Manufacture of Basic Metals CAE 32 - Other Manufacturing Industries

150 000 100 000

50 000 0

6 000 4 000 2 000

0


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014



28

Cons

umpt

ion

Cons

umpt

ion

CAE 17 - Manufacture of pulp, paper and board

300 000 225 000 150 000

75 000 0

500 000 400 000 300 000 200 000 100 000

0

CAE 19 - Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products


2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 5.2 - Evolution of the industry sub-sectors during the 2008-2014 period [Source: DGEG]

Figure 5.2 Legend: Portuguese: English: Eletricidade Electricity GPL LPG Gasolina Petrol Petróleo... Oil... Gasóleo Diesel Fuel Fuel Lubrificantes Lubricants GN NG Asfaltos Asphalt Solventes Solvents Coque de... ...coke Carvão Coal Parafinas Paraffin



29

Dist

ricts

/ Isl

ands


The energy consumption associated with this sector has a high geographic spread. Only in the last 20

to 30 years have municipalities been investing in the creation of areas and industrial parks for

businesses and industry. Prior to that, they would establish themselves in the place they deemed

most convenient for their activity and, as such, nowadays consumption is relatively dispersed across

the municipalities.

The consumption in this sector in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores, broken down by

district, has the distribution shown in Figure 5.3.

Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores

and Madeira in the industrial sector Viseu

Vila Real Viana do Castelo

Setúbal Santarém

Porto Portalegre

Lisbon Leiria

Guarda Faro

Évora Coimbra

Castelo Branco Bragança

Braga Beja

Aveiro Madeira

Azores

428.72 70.94

495.80

1 191.63

100.79 3 057.87

1 517.31 86.21

453.89 168.93

2 939.74 325.31

38.00 1 398.13

431.39 2 603.57

1 259.55 1 439.98

7 808.67

16 632.55

0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000


Figure 5.3 - Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the industrial sector [Source: DGEG 2014]

The data used to produce figure 5.3 was made available by the DGEG and was processed in order to

be able to show a breakdown by district. In this manner, it can be seen that the areas with greater

consumption are the coastal areas, or areas relatively near the coastline, where the number of

companies set up is normally higher. Setúbal and Porto stand out from the other districts, due to the

consumption of the refineries of Sines and Matosinhos, respectively. Madeira and the Azores also

stand out due to their food and drink industries.

According to the data made available by the DGEG in the 2014 energy balance, heating needs

account for 67.1 % of the energy consumption of the industrial sector.



30

Cooling needs are not directly shown in this balance. A quick analysis of the activity sub-sectors will

show that the cooling needs are met mainly by the use of electricity (industrial cooling for specific

applications). It was then necessary to break down the consumption of electricity in this sector, in

order to ascertain the ratio of consumption of energy for cooling. According to ADENE4 (the

Portuguese energy agency), the consumption of cooling by the industry represents, on average, 4 %

of the electricity consumption of this sector in Portugal. As such, and for the purposes of the

calculation of the heating and cooling needs in the industrial sector, the ratios in Table 3 were

applied.

Table 3 - Thermal needs in the industrial sector

Industry

Heat needs 67.1 % of the total energy consumption of the sector

Cooling needs 4 % of the electricity consumption of the sector

Using the abovementioned values for the consumption percentages of heat and cooling, it can be

seen that the demand for heat and cooling has the weight in the distribution per district shown in

Figure 5.4.

4 ADENE – Technical Guide of systems powered by electric engines for the industry - http://www.adene.pt/parceiro/guia-tecnico-de-sistemas-accionados-por-motores-electricos

http://www.adene.pt/parceiro/guia-tecnico-de-sistemas-accionados-por-motores-electricos

http://www.adene.pt/parceiro/guia-tecnico-de-sistemas-accionados-por-motores-electricos



31

Figure 5.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the industrial sector [GWh]

Figure 4.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Necessidades de Calor/Frio por Distrito no Setor da Indústria [GWh]

Heat/cooling needs by district in the industrial sector [GWh]

Açores The Azores Lisboa Lisbon

Unlike the agriculture and fisheries sector, in the industrial sector heat has a greater weight than

cooling. Most production processes need or produce heat, which means that there is a great share of

consumption spent in the production of that same heat which can be replaced by cogeneration.

As in the previous case, the distribution of consumption by district allows us to have an initial idea of

the regions where we will most likely find high concentrations of consumption, in an attempt to

identify areas with consumption of more than the threshold of 20 GWh stated in the directive, and

which will be the target of the mapping carried out in Chapter 8, based on the consumption by

council area. In this case, there are 127 municipalities where the total consumption is higher than

20 GWh. However, in relation to the consumption of heat and cooling, only around 106

municipalities exceed the 20 GWh threshold.

Figure 5.5 summarises all this information.



32


Percentage of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of more than 20 GWh (top graph)

Percentage of municipalities with heat and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh (bottom graph)

Consumption by municipalities in the industrial sector

% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of more than 20 GWh

% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of less than 20 GWh

Consumption of heat and cooling by municipalities in the industrial sector


% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of less than 20 GWh Figure 5.5 - Statistics of the municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores

for the industrial sector (Source: DGEG 2014)



33

6 Services sector

In recent decades, this sector has had a greater impact in the national economy, representing around

67.3 % of jobs of the active population in Portugal in 2014 (INE, Employment Statistics 2014).

Similarly to the industrial sector, the services sector is very heterogeneous, ranging from small

commercial units to large shopping centres, large hospitals, and it also includes office blocks, schools,

sporting facilities, hotels, etc. There is a wide variance both in terms of size (area, number of people)

and number of hours of use, which makes the determination of the typical thermal needs by sub-

sector difficult.

In the data provided by the DGEG, consumers are identified by the CAE, which conditioned the

identification of the global consumption of each of the sub-sectors, since there are always premises

where the consumption can be allocated to more than one CAE, even when using 5 digit CAEs.

In general terms, the thermal demand in this sector is influenced by the climate zone and by the

purpose of the building. In the absence of data connecting the activity carried out in the building with

the climate zone, it was necessary to use the energy balance of 2014 and identify the average values

for thermal needs. Having also consulted the bibliography (Klotz et al 2014) there was a percentage

of heat identified that could be replaced with cogeneration.

There are various types of buildings in this sector that have different heat and cooling needs, namely:

• Hospitals and health centres (CAE 86 – Human health activities)

• Buildings for Central Administration (CAE 84 – Buildings for public administration and defence)

• Schools (CAE 85 - Education)

• Shopping Centres (CAE 47 – Retail trade, except for motor vehicles and motorcycles)

• Hotels (CAE 55 - Accommodation)

Despite the use for different purposes of each of building, there was an average value defined for

heat that can be replaced, which will subsequently be used.



34

6.1 Energy profile in the services sector

In order to create a profile of energy needs, namely the demand for heat and cooling in services, it is

advisable to describe the main sources of energy and the final energy consumption in this activity

sector. Figure 6.1 shows the breakdown of primary energy for the year 2014, as well as the evolution

of consumption in terms of primary energy for this activity sector for the 2008-2014 period.

Looking at Figure 6.1, it can be seen that the most important energy sources are diesel (mostly due to

road transports associated with service companies), NG, electricity and petrol. Despite being

immediately followed by fuel and LPG, these two have much lower consumption values.

In terms of evolution of consumption, it can be seen that the consumption of NG, which is the main

combustible fuel, increased during the 2008-2011 period. From that point onwards, it has seen

successive reductions, which can be associated with improvements in efficiency (substitution by

other energy sources or substitution of equipment), reduction of the economic activity or even the

reduction in heating needs in cases where this energy source is used. The consumption of petrol and

fuel have constantly decreased since 2008. The consumption of electricity in service companies has

remained constant, possibly because it is significantly detached from the economic activity itself.

There is still the consumption of other combustible fuels, although on a smaller scale than the above,

the relevance of which for the overall panorama is minor, such as in the case of petroleum products

(for illumination and as propellant), which are used in very specific situations.

A quick analysis of some of the industry sub-sectors will provide a better idea of the energy sources

used the most, as well as the evolution of consumption over time, shown in Figure 6.2.

CHP2016 (Draft Report)

Rapporteur: ISR – UC |

37

Electricity

LPG

Petrol

Chemical Naphtha

Petroleum for

Illumination and as

Propellant

Fuel

Petroleum Coke

Lubricants

Asphalts

Paraffin

Solvents

NG

2008 1 474 234 162 377 1 560 858 0 36 1 003 747 0 65 705 397 467 498 180 2 592 387 2009 1 593 880 160 485 1 514 222 0 130 803 910 0 52 494 424 540 290 188 2 705 142 2010 1 601 176 642 829 1 437 162 0 24 619 610 0 49 724 315 401 72 39 2 841 913 2011 1 571 126 575 095 1 307 093 0 60 530 399 0 44 499 310 739 0 598 2 887 964 2012 1 514 665 523 071 1 189 956 0 53 440 276 0 36 766 245 188 130 570 2 278 372 2013 1 490 219 120 486 1 147 588 0 99 292 547 0 38 202 193 935 0 295 1 837 881 2014 1 509 044 120 436 1 147 140 0 2 243 042 0 38 720 131 562 355 829 1 695 730

Cons

umpt

ion

5 500 000

Services

4 500 000

3 500 000

2 500 000

1 500 000

500 000

-500 000

Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 6.1 – Breakdown of final energy in the services sector (Source: DGEG)



36

Cons

umpt

ion

Cons

umpt

ion

Elec

tric

ity

LPG

Petr

oleu

m

Illum

inat

ion

Dies

el

Fuel

Lubr

ican

ts

Asph

alt

NG

62 000.00

52 000.00

42 000.00

32 000.00

22 000.00

12 000.00

2 000.00

-8 000.00

CAE 86 - Human Health Activities CAE 84 - Public Administration and Defence 160 000 140 000 120 000 100 000

80 000 60 000 40 000 20 000

0

Energy Source

Toe

Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Elec

tric

ity

LPG

Dies

el

Fuel

Lu

bric

ants

As

phal

t N

G



37

Cons

umpt

ion

Cons

umpt

ion

El

ectr

icity

LPG

Dies

el

Fuel

Lubr

ican

ts

NG

Cons

umpt

ion

Elec

tric

ity

LPG

Petr

ol

Petr

oleu

m fo

r ill

umin

atio

n an

d…

Dies

el

Fuel

NG

Para

ffin

Lubr

ican

ts

50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000

0

CAE 85 - Education

CAE 47 – Retail Trade, Except for Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles

300 000 225 000 150 000

75 000 0

Toe Energy Source

Toe Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

70 000 60 000 50 000 40 000 30 000 20 000 10 000

0

CAE 55 - Accommodation

Electricity LPG Diesel Fuel Lubricants NG

Toe Energy Source

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 6.2 - Evolution of consumption in the services sub-sectors during the 2008-2014 period [Source: DGEG]



38

Looking at the sub-sectors shown in Figure 6.2, it can be seen that their behaviour and evolution is

very similar. In some sub-sectors, the consumption of electricity increased until 2011 and has been

decreasing since then. In others, consumption has remained approximately constant since 2008.

Consumption of LPG, diesel and fuel either remained constant or has decreased, whilst the

consumption of NG increased in practically all sub-sectors. This could mean that combustible fuels

were replaced, in these instances in favour of NG. Figure 6.2 shows similar behaviours in various sub-

sectors, although changes, both in terms of the source of energy or in the pattern of consumption,

could be motivated by different reasons in each sub-sector. In any case, this similar behaviour

supports the use of average values in this study, both in the demand for heat and cooling and in the

heat value that can be replaced by cogeneration.


The energy consumption associated with this sector varies a lot and it is normally associated with

large population centres where there is a greater concentration of companies and services.

Consumption in this sector, especially in relation to the air-conditioning of buildings, is affected by

the climate of the regions (despite the very mild climate in Portugal) namely in the coastal regions

where most of the population lives. Average consumption in terms of thermal energy varies a lot

within this sector, since the buildings included range from hospitals (with very specific thermal needs

and highly controlled environment), to shopping centres, schools, hotels, restaurants, offices,

hypermarkets, etc.

There is still a very important factor to consider in relation to the air-conditioning of these spaces:

the human factor. The sensation of comfort varies from person to person, which conditions

consumption, especially in buildings destined to the hotel trade and offices, where there is a greater

index of individual control of the air-conditioning systems.

Figure 6.3 shows the breakdown of consumption in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores in

the services sector.



39

Dist

ricts

/ Isl

ands

Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the services sector

Viseu Vila Real

Viana do Castelo Setúbal

702.72 337.88 366.56

1 644.63 Santarém

Porto Portalegre

Lisbon Leiria

Guarda Faro

209.10

349.23

1 016.52 1 034.06

1 283.99

3 373.20

4 742.06

Évora Coimbra

Castelo Branco Bragança

Braga Beja

437.55 825.64

401.57 295.48

381.38

1 538.01

Aveiro Madeira

Azores

1 213.73 687.34

481.39 0.00 1 000.00 2 000.00 3 000.00 4 000.00 5 000.00 6 000.00 7 000.00 8 000.00


Figure 6.3 – Energy consumption by district in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira in the services sector [Source: DGEG 2014]

In Figure 6.3, it can be seen that the districts with the highest number of inhabitants have the highest

consumption, such as Lisbon, Porto, Setúbal, Braga, Santarém, and Aveiro, etc. The number of

inhabitants is proportional to the amount of services the populations needs, as well as to the number

of jobs available in this sector. As previously mentioned, this sector employed more than 67 % of the

active population in 2014, with a greater concentration of services in the larger residential areas

(municipality and district capitals).

The heating and cooling needs in this sector vary substantially, but according to the data made

available in the conference on energy efficiency in the services sector organised by the OE - The

Portuguese Society of Engineers5 , the cooling thermal needs in the services sector are as shown in

the following Table 4. The value for heating shown in Table 4 has been taken from the 2014 energy

balance.

5 Conference on energy efficiency in the services sector - http://www.ordemengenheiros.pt/fotos/dossier_artigo/05_20120511_jhormigo_12940243444fb2895ac0780.pdf

http://www.ordemengenheiros.pt/fotos/dossier_artigo/05_20120511_jhormigo_12940243444fb2895ac0780

http://www.ordemengenheiros.pt/fotos/dossier_artigo/05_20120511_jhormigo_12940243444fb2895ac0780



40

Table 4 - Thermal needs in the services sector

Services

Heat needs 21.8 % of the total energy consumption of the sector

Cooling needs 17.7 % of the electricity consumption of the sector

The values shown in Table 4 are average values, but there are buildings with very different uses, such

as hypermarkets, where most of the cooling consumption is for refrigerated storage and where

heating needs are not very high due to the heat produced by the equipment, lighting and people in

the building. In the hotel trade, for example, the fact that air-conditioning is controlled

independently in each room means that the human factor is a key factor in the variation of

consumption in this sector. Therefore, we decided to use average values in order to minimise errors

in the calculation of the demand for heating that can be replaced. Therefore, using the

abovementioned values for the consumption percentages of heat/cooling, it can be seen that the

demand for heat and cooling has the distribution shown in figure 6.4.

Figure 6.4 - Heat/cooling needs by district in the services sector [GWh]

Figure 6.4 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Necessidades de Calor/Frio no Setor dos Heat/cooling needs in the services sector



41

Serviços [GWh] [GWh] Açores The Azores Lisboa Lisbon

Using the available data at council area level, 252 municipalities can be identified where

consumption is greater than 20 GWh. In relation to the heating/cooling consumption, only 122

municipalities reach the consumption threshold of 20 GWh.

Figure 6.5 summarises all this information.



42


Percentage of municipalities with consumption in the services sector of more than 20 GWh (top graph)

Percentage of municipalities with heat and cooling consumption of more than 20 GWh (bottom graph)

Consumption by municipalities in the industrial sector

% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of more than 20 GWh

% of municipalities with consumption in the industrial sector of less than 20 GWh

Consumption of heat and cooling by municipalities in the industrial sector


% of municipalities with consumption of heat and cooling of less than 20 GWh

Figure 6.5 - Statistics of municipalities in Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores for the services sector (Source: DGEG 2014)



43

7 Residential sector


The residential sector in Portugal has very low consumption rates when compared with the other

European countries, especially in relation to consumption of heat and even for space cooling, as

shown in Figure 7.1 and 7.2.

Figure 7.1 - Consumption of energy by dwelling broken down by final use in 2012 (Lapillonne, Bruno, Karine Pollier 2015)

Figure 7.2 – Consumption for heating by m2 (Lapillonne, Bruno, Karine Pollier 2015)



44

Figures 7.1 & 7.2 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Aquecimento Heating Aq. Água Water heating Cozinha Kitchen Aplicações Applications Iluminação Illumination AC AC Média Average Tep/habitação Toe/dwelling Malta Malta Portugal Portugal Bulgária Bulgaria Espanha Spain Chipre Cyprus Croácia Croatia Grécia Greece Roménia Romania Itália Italy Lituânia Lithuania Eslováquia Slovakia EU EU Polónia Poland Holanda Holland República Checa Czech Republic França France Reino Unido United Kingdom Irlanda Ireland Alemanha Germany Estónia Estonia Eslovénia Slovenia Noruega Norway Dinamarca Denmark Letónia Latvia Suécia Sweden Hungria Hungary Bélgica Belgium Áustria Austria Finlândia Finland



45

Even then, according to the DGEG (2016), between 2000 and 2014 the consumption of the residential

sector mirrored the decreasing tendency of energy consumption at global level, with a reduction of

12.7 %. One of the explanations for that fact is the evolution of the number of dwellings. In 2014, the

number of housing buildings was estimated at around 3.6 million and the number of dwellings at 5.9

million, of which only 13 % of the buildings corresponded to multi-family buildings. However, the

construction of new buildings decreased in 2000, as can be seen in Figure 7.3, with the number of

works completed in 2013 corresponding to around 38.4 % of the number verified in 2000, with about

a third corresponding to rehabilitation works.

Figure 7.3 - Number of classic and dwelling buildings (INE 2015)

Figure 7.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Milhares Thousand Edifícios Buildings Alojamentos Dwellings Norte North Centro Centre Área M. Lisboa Lisbon metropolitan area Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve RA Açores The Azores RA Madeira Madeira Fonte: INE, Estimativas do Parque Habitacional Source: INE, Estimates of the housing stock

According to the DGEG (2016), the reduction of consumption at an average rate of -4.4 % per annum

since 2009 is associated with the increase of energy efficiency resulting from multiple measures

implemented and with the improvement of equipment, as well as with the increase of rates and

higher energy prices.

The improvement in efficiency is apparently greater in respect of space heating, with a reduction of



46

around 31.7 % between 2000 and 2013 and of around 28.8 % in respect of cooking and HWSP.

In terms of consumption by final use, cooking has the highest share, with around 39 % of the final

consumption, followed by water heating with 23 %. However, in the former, electricity is the main

source, whereas water heating is mainly carried out by means of LPG cylinders. The share for lighting

is small, corresponding only to 4.5 % of consumption, and consumption for space cooling is negligible

(ICESD, 2010).

In 2014, the distribution of consumption by source and final use in the residential sector are as

shown in Figure 7.4. The significant importance of the consumption of biomass should he

highlighted, which has a predominant weight in space heating (72 %), as well as the still very relevant

weight of LPG for water heating (41 %).

Figure 7.4 - Distribution of residential consumption by source in 2014 - figures in ktoe. Source: DGEG

Figure 7.4 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Total Total Aquecimento Heating Arrefecimento Cooling AQS HSWP Biomassa Biomass Solar Térmica Thermal solar Total gás/gasóleo Total gas/diesel GPL LPG Gás Gas Eletricidade Electricity

The evolution of consumption towards greater efficiency may also have been affected by several

efficiency improvement programmes which included the residential and services sector, including the

promotion of more efficient equipment, efficient lighting, windows, insulation, the certification of

buildings and the integration of renewable energies.



47

The reduced consumption for air-conditioning in Portugal is no doubt closely linked with the more

mild climate when compared with other countries, as shown in Figure 7.5, which shows the average

number of degrees day for the 1980-2004 period in the E-27 countries, where Portugal appears with

the third lowest value, with a figure equal to less than half of the European average and around a

fourth of the highest figure (Finland), corresponding closely to the figures per dwelling as illustrated

in Figure 7.1 and Figure 7.2.

Figure 7.5 - Average number of degrees day for the 1980-2004 period in 27 European countries (Bertoldi et al. 2012)

Even so, Portugal's geography causes significant variations in different regions, as shown in Figure

7.6, with some of them displaying characteristics closer to other European countries with greater

consumption. However, in this figure it can be seen that the region where most of the population is

concentrated, corresponding to the coastal region between Setúbal and Braga (Figure 7.7), largely

coincides with the region with the least heating demand.

In terms of cooling, there was no data obtained that allowed a comparison at international level, but

the low average temperature levels shown in Figure 7.6, particularly in the region with the largest

concentration of population, also seems to justify the almost irrelevant level of consumption of

energy for heating in the residential sector, if we also take into account the short duration of the

season and the fact that it coincides with the holiday period.

The short duration and small importance of the heating seasons, associated with financial limitations,

will also serve as explanation in all the regions for the small number of dwellings with central heating,

as well as the significant number of dwellings for which there is no record of any heating system, as

shown in Figure 7.5.

Other relevant information corresponds to the source of energy used in the existing heating systems

as illustrated in Figure 7.9, which shows a marked importance of electric heating systems, namely in

the Lisbon region.

The information described in the last two paragraphs reveal, on the one hand, the potential for an



48

increase in global efficiency if the non-centralised systems, and namely electric systems, were

replaced by the use of residual heating through heating distribution networks. However, it also

implies the need for very significant investments in the heat distribution network, also requiring

additional investment by the consumers to adapt their houses to those systems, with a potentially

long return on investment, given the reduced consumption and short duration of the heating season.

Figure 7.6 - Zoning for the purposes of the thermal envelope requirements (Aguiar 2013)

Figure 7.6 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Critério Criteria Zona zone



49

Figure 7.7 - Urban fabric areas. Data: DGT

Figure 7.8 - Number of dwellings with heating system per region NUTS II. Data: (INE 2011)

Figure 7.8 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Milhares Thousands Norte North Centro Centre



50

Lisboa Lisbon Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Açores The Azores Madeira Madeira Aq. Central Central heating Lareira aberta Open fireplace Recup. De calor Heat recovery Equipamentos móveis Mobile appliances Equipamentos fixos Fixed appliances Nenhum None

Figure 7.9 - Number of dwellings with heating system per region NUTS II - distribution per

energy source. (Source: INE 2011)

Figure 7.9 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Milhares Thousands Norte North Centro Centre Lisboa Lisbon Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Açores The Azores Madeira Madeira Outra (energia solar, geotérmica, ...) Other (solar energy, geothermal, ...) Gás natural, propano, butano ou outros combustíveis gasosos

Natural gas, propane, butane or other combustible gases

Petróleo, gasóleo ou outros combustíveis líquidos

Kerosene, diesel or other liquid fuels

Madeira, carvão ou outros combustíveis sólidos

Wood, coal or other solid combustible fuels

Electricidade Electricity

The evolution of consumption in the residential sector has evidenced a marked reduction, which has

followed the economic developments as well as the increase of efficiency in final uses, as shown in

Figure 7.10. A more detailed analysis of the data shows that the evolution has fluctuated around a

central tendency for linear reduction (Figure 7.11). The latter is probably the best basis for estimating



51

the evolution in the near future, considering the combined effects of a stagnant, or even diminishing

demographic rate of growth, the slow economic growth and the expected increase in energy

efficiency, despite the imperfect adjustment of the linear trend curve to the evolution over the last

five years. It should be noted, however, that polynomial models that would result in a better

adjustment would show an evolution that is not very plausible should they be used to estimate future

consumption, whether because they would imply an increase in consumption in the short term

(quadratic model), or because they would imply a very accented reduction already in the next few

years (cubic model).

Figure 7.10 - Evolution of consumption in the residential sector (Source: DGEG)

Figure 7.10 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Aquecimento Heating Arrefecimento Cooling AQS HWSP Cozinha Kitchen Iluminação + aplicações Lighting + applications Outros Other

Figure 7.11 - Determination of the tendency associated with the residential consumption data



52

Figure 7.11 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Mtep Mtoe Ano Year

If the tendencies of the last four years remain constant, residential consumption could be

reduced by between 30 to 40 % by 2025.



53

8 Mapping of demand, including existing and projected infrastructures

According to Annex VIII of the directive, the exhaustive evaluation of the national heating and cooling

potential should include a map of the national territory that identifies the following, without ignoring

the protection of potentially sensitive data:

i. heating and cooling demand points, including:

● municipalities and conurbations with a plot ratio of at least 0.3;

● industrial zones with a total annual heating and cooling consumption of more than 20

GWh.

ii. existing and planned district heating and cooling infrastructures;

iii. potential heating and cooling supply points, including:

● electricity generation installations with a total annual electricity production of more than 20 GWh;

● waste incineration plants;

● existing and planned cogeneration installations using technologies referred to in Part II of

Annex I, and district heating installations;

As previously mentioned in chapter 3, according to the official data made available for the evaluation

of the demand and of the energy consumption (including heating and cooling) in the sectors of

agriculture and fisheries, industry and services, the mapping can only be made in respect of

municipalities. With the data available, where the consumption by economic activity code is only

processed at municipal level, it is impossible to locate that consumption more accurately.

In the second bullet point of point (i), the term industrial zone is used, a concept that has been

changing over the last 20 to 30 years. However, a large number of industrial facilities, especially older

ones, are installed outside the so-called industrial zones, being dispersed inside all 307 municipalities

in Continental Portugal, the Azores and Madeira. As such, and since the degree of precision of the

data supplied is at the municipal scale, consumption and demand will be processed at this same

scale. In the mapping, the boundaries used will be the geographic boundaries of the municipalities.

At a first stage, a database containing all the data supplied was created, namely the consumption by

energy source, economic activity and municipality; the database was then used to break down the

various data needed for the work.



54

8.1 Map of existing infrastructures

8.1.1 Map of active thermal power plants in Portugal

The map in Figure 8.1 shows in black the municipalities that had active heat and power stations in

Portugal with a production of more than 20 GWh in 2014; there are 17 in Continental Portugal, 5 in

the Azores and 3 in Madeira, totalling 25 heat and power stations. Incineration plants are

represented by a yellow dot; there are two in Portugal in the municipalities of Loures and Maia, and

one in Madeira in the municipality of Santa Cruz, totalling 3 incinerators nationally.

Figure 8.1 - Location of heat and power stations with a consumption of more than 20 GWh and of incineration plants (Source: DGEG 2014)

Figure 8.1 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Localização das centrais termoelétricas com consumos superiores a 20GWh e das centrais incineradores (RSU)

Location of heat and power stations with a consumption of more than 20 GWh and of incineration plants

Sem centrais termoelétricas No heat and power stations Com centrais termoelétricas With heat and power stations Central incineradora Incinerator



55

8.1.2 Map of active cogeneration producers in Portugal

In this map, municipalities in blue have active cogeneration producers in Portugal. There is a total of

132 cogeneration producers distributed by 61 municipalities, in the industry (74 %), services (26 %)

and agriculture (1 %) sectors. This split can be better seen in Figure 10.3.

Figure 8.2 - Municipalities with active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014)

Figure 8.2 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Municípios com cogeradores ativos Municipalities with active cogenerators Sem cogeradores Without cogenerators Com cogeradores With cogenerators

8.1.3 Map of projected cogeneration plants

There is no information on installations of this nature being projected or built. This is probably

associated with the fact that the incentives for cogeneration have been reduced. This is also shown

by the reduction in the number of active cogeneration units in Portugal.

8.2 Map of the agriculture and fisheries sector

Figures 8.3 and 8.4 show the total consumption and consumption of thermal energy, respectively, in

the agriculture and fisheries sector by municipality. As previously mentioned in chapter 4, the

agriculture sector depends on factors such as the climate and soil conditions, so that it can be seen in



56

Figure 8.3 that the greatest number of municipalities with consumption of more than 20 GWh are

found in the centre and southern regions of the country, where the variations of temperature are not

so extreme throughout the year. The regions of Estremadura, Ribatejo and Alentejo present ideal

conditions for agriculture, both in terms of the climate and of the quality and quantity of soil. The

Azores has the highest level of consumption nationally in this sector, which is associated with the

production of milk and dairy products, as well as beef and veal. The municipality of Matosinhos has

the highest level of consumption in Continental Portugal, which is connected with its fishing

activities.

Figure 8.3 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector (Source: DGEG 2014).

Figure 8.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da agricultura e pescas (GWh)

Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector (GWh)

As can be seen in Figure 8.4, which relates to the consumption of thermal energy, this sector is not

very relevant for the cogeneration activity (there are only 2 cogeneration producers in this sector),

since the amounts of heat consumed are minimal; the largest proportion of consumption is

associated with the generation of cooling from electric sources. As such, there are only two

municipalities shown with a consumption of heat and cooling of more than 20 GWh.



57

Figure 8.4 - Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector: heat and cooling (Source: DGEG 2014)

Figure 8.4 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da agricultura e pescas: calor e frio (GWh)

Consumption by municipality in the agriculture and fisheries sector: heat and cooling (GWh)

8.3 Map of the industrial sector

Despite the constant automation of processes in the industrial sector, this is still a sector that

generates a lot of employment, playing an important role in the economic growth of the country.

Normally, this sector tends to be located in areas with good transport and telecommunications links,

as well as areas with a high population density. As can be seen in Figure 8.5, and from comparing it to

Figures 7.7 (urban fabric areas) and 8.14 (distribution of dwellings by civil parish), the largest

concentration occurs in the coastal area of the country, where there is a higher population density

and, consequently, there are better telecommunications and transport links. In respect of access to

transportation, the coastal region also offers several maritime ports which are very important for this

sector.

The largest consumption is located in the municipalities of Sines and Matosinhos, where there are oil

refineries.



58

Figure 8.5 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector (Source: DGEG 2014).

Figure 8.5 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da indústria (GWh)

Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector (GWh)

Figure 8.6 - Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector: heat and cooling (Source:

DGEG2014).



59

Figure 8.5 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector da indústria: calor e frio (GWh)

Consumption by municipality in the industrial sector: heat and cold (GWh)

The map in figure 8.6 allows us to see the concentration of heat and cooling industrial consumption

by municipality, given the distribution carried out using the ratios from Table 3.

8.4 Map of the services sector

As in the case of the industrial sector, the services sector is directly connected with population

density. As such, it can be seen that the main consumption in the services sector takes place in

municipalities with a higher urban fabric and population density, being located, once again, on the

Portuguese coastal region. The municipalities of Lisbon, Seixal, Porto and Matosinhos have the

highest consumption. In terms of districts, Lisbon has the highest consumption, followed by Porto,

Setúbal, Braga, Santarém and Aveiro. In order to create the map in Figure 8.7, the heating needs in

this sector were calculated using the ratios from Table 4.

Figure 8.7 - Consumption by municipality in the services sector (Source: DGEG 2014).

Figure 8.7 Legend:

Portuguese: English:



60

Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector dos serviços (GWh)

Consumption by municipality in the services sector (GWh)

Figure 8.8 - Consumption by municipality in the services sector: heat and cooling (DGEG 2014).

Figure 8.8 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Consumos dos municípios no sector dos serviços (GWh)

Consumption by municipality in the services sector (GWh)

8.5 Map of the residential sector

With regard to point (i) and to municipalities and conurbations, that information was collected from

the official entities responsible for maintaining it, namely the National Statistical Institute (INE) and

the Directorate-General for the Territory (DGT).

In the case of the INE, it was only possible to obtain areas and number of dwellings. It was not

possible to calculate the plot ratio, it was only possible to calculate the housing density (no. of

buildings or no. of dwellings per km2) from the 2011 censuses, but without information on the area

occupied by buildings.

The Land Use and Land Cover Map for Continental Portugal for 2007 (COS2007), which was produced

based on the visual interpretation of high resolution orthorectified aerial spatial images, was



61

obtained from the DGT. Through the COS2007 it was possible to identify areas marked as

conurbations and compare them with the Official Administrative Map of Portugal. However, the

definition of conurbation does not allow us to determine with precision the 'plot ratio' as defined in

the directive, which should correspond to the ratio of the building floor area to the land area in a

given territory. The areas identified as conurbations correspond to all the areas where the soil has

been sealed, including streets and also small gardens connected to dwelling houses. As such, there is

no exact correspondence to 'building floor area' as defined in the directive. Even then, it appears to

be the closest definition, being the conurbations the conjunction of areas defined as continuous

urban fabric and discontinuous urban fabric, defined as per Figure 8.8.

Figure 8.8 - Definition of conurbations in COS2007 (Source: COS 2007).

Figure 8.8 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Cobertura Coverage 3 ou + andares 3 or more floors Tecido urbano contínuo predominantemente vertical

Mainly vertical continuous urban fabric

Tecido urbano contínuo predominantemente horizontal

Mainly horizontal continuous urban fabric

Tecido urbano descontínuo Discontinuous urban fabric Tecido urbano descontínuo esparso Sparse discontinuous urban fabric

The total conurbations area is shown in Figure 7.6, where it is possible to see the relevance of the

metropolitan areas of Lisbon and Porto and the concentration in the coastal region between them.

However, the simple representation of conurbations does not allow us to identify the potential in

terms of application of micro-cogeneration, or of the supply by district heating and cooling networks,

without first understanding the consumption levels of those areas using as reference the low level of

consumption for heating in Portugal and the short duration of the heating season.

In order to understand the heating and cooling needs of each region, it would be necessary to obtain

statistics on consumption distributed geographically. However, there is no information containing

the sources of energy with a sufficiently detailed level of distribution, namely in relation to biomass

consumption, which has a weight of 30 % of the global consumption and which will have different

levels of use, which is bound to be higher in rural places outside conurbations.



62

Similarly, it is not possible to determine exactly the distribution of consumption by final use, being

necessary to make an estimate based on a few known statistics of average distribution, based on

national consumption surveys (INE/DGEG 2011) or based on questions included in the censuses.

As mentioned in Chapter 3, four hypotheses were therefore formulated in order to estimate

consumption at the smallest possible administrative level (the civil parish), with the ultimate

objective of obtaining values for the consumption of space heating, water heating and cooling:



63

i. The simple application of the average consumption by dwelling to the distribution of

dwellings of usual residence by civil parish, which were obtained from the censuses, based

on the INE's estimates for 2014.

ii. Using the values for consumption or sales by council area for domestic use for all energy

sources (with the exception of biomass), estimating the distribution of that consumption by

the civil parishes in proportion to the number of occupied dwelling houses per civil parish.

iii. Distributing the estimate of the total consumption of each source of energy for space heating

by the civil parishes, proportionally to the number of dwelling houses with a corresponding

main heating system in each civil parish.

iv. Using the statistics of dwellings with air conditioning to estimate the consumption by civil

parish for cooling, distributing the total consumption for space cooling proportionally to the

number of dwellings with air conditioning in each civil parish.

The results of hypotheses (i) and (ii) relating to the distribution of total consumption are shown in

Figures 8.9 and 8.10, being possible to see that hypothesis (i), which uses simply the distribution of

dwellings in Portugal, corresponds to a very reasonable representation of the distribution of global

consumption of the residential sector, with only some loss of meaning in some regions in the interior

of the country in the most approximate distribution.



64

Figure 8.9 - Distribution of dwellings by civil parish.



65

Figure 8.9 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend N° alojamentos No. of dwellings N° alojamentos entre 500 e 1000 No. of dwellings between 500 and 1 000 N° alojamentos entre 1000 e 1500 No. of dwellings between 1 000 and 1 500 N° alojamentos entre 1500 e 2000 No. of dwellings between 1 500 and 2 000 N° alojamentos entre 2000 e 2500 No. of dwellings between 2 000 and 2 500 N° alojamentos superior a 2500 No. of dwellings higher than 2 500

Figure 8.10 - Distribution of total annual consumption in the residential sector by civil parish

using real consumption statistics, with an estimated distribution of the consumption of biomass according to hypothesis (ii).



66

Figure 8.10 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 500 tep Total consumption < 500 toe Consumo total entre 500 e 1000 tep Total consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe Consumo total entre 1000 e 1500 tep Total consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe Consumo total entre 1500 e 2000 tep Total consumption between 1 500 and 2 000 toe Consumo total entre 2000 e 2500 tep Total consumption between 2 000 and 2 500 toe Consumo total superior a 2500 tep Total consumption higher than 2 500 toe

The representation of hypothesis (ii), which corresponds to a distribution of heating consumption

based on the statistics relating to the types of heating, resulted in the map in Figure 8.11, which is

very similar to the previous maps despite the significant differences in the climate, clearly

demonstrating that the concentration of population on the coastal areas clearly compensates a

greater need of heat for space heating in the localities in the interior.



67

Figure 8.11 - Distribution of the annual heating consumption according to hypothesis (iii)

Figure 8.10 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 100 tep Total consumption < 100 toe Consumo total entre 100 e 200 tep Total consumption between 100 and 200 toe Consumo total entre 200 e 300 tep Total consumption between 200 and 300 toe Consumo total entre 300 e 400 tep Total consumption between 300 and 400 toe Consumo total entre 400 e 500 tep Total consumption between 400 and 500 toe Consumo total superior a 500 tep Total consumption higher than 500 toe

The distribution of the total consumption by km2 of area of the civil parishes, according to hypothesis



68

(ii), reveals even more the importance of the conurbations, showing clearly that there is sparse

consumption in most of the national territory, as shown in Figure 8.12. In reality, the total

consumption at civil parish level is under 500 toe/km2 in almost all of the country, with the almost

exclusive exception of Lisbon and Porto and of a few other parishes, with Braga standing out. In

relation to heating, the situation is even clearer, with most of the territory consuming less than 100

toe/km2, with the exception of a few civil parishes, mostly in Lisbon and Porto, with consumptions

between 100 and 200 toe/km2 (Figure 8.12).

Figure 8.12 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2,

based on approach (ii).



69

Figure 8.12 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo inferior a 500 tep/ km2 Consumption of less than 500 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 500 e 1 000 tep/ km2 Consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep/ km2 Consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe/ km2 Consumo superior a 1 500 tep/ km2 Consumption higher than 1 500 toe/ km2

It should be noted that this estimate has a drawback as it does not allow the evaluation of the

density in consumption in localities smaller than a civil parish. However, and considering that the civil

parishes in cities are almost always exclusively urban, the almost non-existence of civil parishes with

meaningful densities outside the large conurbations of Lisbon and Porto allows us to set aside that

uncertainly with some confidence.

Figure 8.13 - Estimate of the density of the annual consumption by civil parish in toe/km2, based on approach (iii).



70

Figure 8.13 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo inferior a 100 tep/ km2 Consumption of less than 100 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 100 e 200 tep/ km2 Consumption between 100 and 200 toe/ km2 Consumo entre 200 e 300 tep/ km2 Consumption between 200 and 300 toe/ km2 Consumo superior a 300 tep/ km2 Consumption higher than 300 toe/ km2

Consumption for cooling tends to still be very small, as had already been mentioned in the

distribution of the global consumption for the residential sector. Its distribution, based on the

statistics of dwellings with air conditioning, results in the spatial distribution estimate visible in Figure

8.14. The high proportion of dwellings with air conditioning in the civil parish of Castelo Branco,

council area of Castelo Branco, should be highlighted; in the map it appears to indicate a meaning

greater than it actually is due to the geographic size of the civil parish. In reality, the resulting

consumption density is lower than 10 toe/km2 in almost all of Portugal, with the exception of some

civil parishes in Lisbon.



71

Figure 8.14 - Distribution of consumption for cooling according to dwellings with air-conditioning

Figure 8.14 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 50 tep Total consumption < 50 toe Consumo total entre 50 e 100 tep Total consumption between 50 and 100 toe Consumo total entre 100 e 150 tep Total consumption between 100 and 150 toe Consumo total superior a 150 tep Total consumption higher than 150 toe

In relation to the islands, in Madeira there is a meaningful total level of consumption on the south

coast, especially in Funchal, which actually corresponds to the only area with



72

consumption slightly higher than 100 toe/km2, as shown in Figure 8.156. However, in relation to the

Azores, only some areas in Ponta Delgada in the S. Miguel Island and Angra do Heroísmo in the

Terceira Island show a density higher than 100 toe/km2 (Figure 8.16).

a) Total consumption

b) Density of consumption

Figure 8.15 - Annual energy consumption in the residential sector in Madeira (Source: DGEG)

Figure 8.15 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Legenda Legend Consumo total < 500 tep Total consumption < 500 toe

6 Note: The representation of consumption by parish in the map appears to allocate consumption to the Desertas Islands, because they are administratively associated with the civil parish of Sta Cruz, council area of Sta Cruz. In reality, only one of the Desertas Islands has inhabitants during the summer, so that consumption is nil, or negligible.



73

Consumo total entre 500 e 1 000 tep Total consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe Consumo total entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep

Total consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe

Consumo total superior a 1 500 e 2 000 tep


Consumo total superior a 2 000 e 2 500 tep


Consumo total superior a 2 500 tep Total consumption higher than 2 500 toe Consumo inferior a 500 tep/km2 Consumption lower than 500 toe/km2 Consumo entre 500 e 1 000 tep/km2 Consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe/km2 Consumo entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe/km2 Consumo superior a 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption higher than 1 500 toe/km2



74

a) Central Group

b) Eastern Group

Figure 8.16 - Density of consumption in the Azores (Source: DGEG)



75

Figure 8.16 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Consumo inferior a 500 tep/km2 Consumption lower than 500 toe/km2 Consumo entre 500 e 1 000 tep/km2 Consumption between 500 and 1 000 toe/km2 Consumo entre 1 000 e 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption between 1 000 and 1 500 toe/km2 Consumo superior a 1 500 tep/km2 Consumption higher than 1 500 toe/km2



76

9 Identification of the high-efficiency cogeneration and of the potential

created since the previous study

Cogeneration was used for the first time in Portugal in the 1940s in the industrial sector, with the

installation of backpressure turbines. Until 1990, there was a reduced rate of penetration of

cogeneration in the market, but in the 1990s around 530 MWe were installed in several industry sub-

sectors.

The definition of the conditions for the connection of the cogeneration power plants with the

national electricity grid, and also the remuneration principles for the sale of surplus energy were

created in 1988, with the aim by the Portuguese Government of promoting the autoproduction of

electricity. By the end of 2014, the installed output was around 1759 MWe, with an overall efficiency

of 79 %.

In 1997, the introduction of NG in Portugal brought new possibilities and a new boost for

cogeneration. New types of projects were launched using Otto cycle engines and gas turbines and old

facilities were also improved so as to increase their output and to reduce pollutant emissions. In the

last 10 years most of the diesel engines have been replaced or converted to natural gas.

9.1 Evolution of the number of cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 period

The previous study attempted to draw a picture of the situation in 2008 and projected the technical

and economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in Portugal until 2020.

The processed data which follows is based on the information provided by the DGEG and

corresponds to the period between 2008 and 2014. Figure 9.1 shows the number of cogeneration

plants between 2008 and 2014, their state (working or stopped), as well as the joint total. A trend

line was inserted in Figure 9.1 corresponding to working plants, which shows the evolution of this

type of facility.

The analysis of Figure 9.1 shows that the total number of working cogeneration plants grew until

2011 and has been decreasing since then until 2014. The number of stopped plants has been growing

since 2010, reaching its peak in 2013; it has been decreasing since then at a slower rate.



77

1 1

No.

of c

ogen

erat

ion

plan

ts

200

Evolution of the number of cogeneration producers in Portugal

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Working 146 151 150 158 157 1 4 1 1 3 2

Stopped 2 0 1 5 7 21 11

Total 148 151 151 163 164 1 6 2 1 4 3

Working Stopped Total Trend

Figure 9.1 - Number of cogeneration plants according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG)

The distribution of cogeneration plants by Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores is shown in

Figure 9.2. This figure shows that cogeneration is mainly installed in Continental Portugal and it is

distributed throughout the whole country, as has already been shown in previous maps.

140

Working cogeneration plants 130

120

100

80

60

40

20

0 Continental Portugal Azores

Madeira

Figure 9.2 - Location of cogeneration plants in 2014, according to the NUT I division (Source: DGEG 2014)



78

Figure 9.3 shows a breakdown expressed as a percentage of the active cogeneration producers in

2014 by sector of activity. Cogeneration producers were mapped according to their sector of activity,

but in municipalities where there are various cogeneration producers working both in the industry

and in services, they were included in a new category called 'Industry and Services'.

Figure 9.3 - Geographic distribution of active cogeneration producers (Source: DGEG 2014)

Figure 9.3 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Arquipélago dos Açores Archipelago of the Azores Arquipélago da Madeira Archipelago of Madeira Distribuição geográfica dos cogeradores por setor de atividade

Geographic distribution of cogenerators by sector of activity

Sem cogeradores Without cogenerators Setor Indústria Industrial sector Setor dos Serviços Services sector Setor da Agricultura e Pescas Agriculture and fisheries sector Indústria e Serviços Industry and services

Figure 9.4 shows a breakdown of the new cogeneration plants by activity sector for the 2008-2014

period.



79

Figure 9.4 - Breakdown (percentage of the number of facilities) of the new cogeneration plants by sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG)

Figure 9.4 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Indústria e Agricultura Industry and agriculture Edifícios de Serviços Buildings for services

Figure 9.5 shows a breakdown of the number (percentage of the number of facilities) of existing

cogeneration plants by sector of activity in 2014.

Figure 9.5 - Breakdown of the number of cogeneration plants by sector of activity (Source: DGEG 2014).

Figure 9.5 Legend:


The analysis of these figures (Figure 9.3 and Figure 9.5) leads us to the conclusion that between 2008

and 2014 the number of cogeneration plants increased in relative terms in the sector of 'Buildings for

Services'. This conclusion is reinforced by the plants that were shut down (40 in 'Industry and

Agriculture' versus 4 in 'Buildings for Services') and by the ones that started operating (27 in 'Industry

and Agriculture' versus 9 in 'Buildings for Services'). It should be mentioned that out of these nine

cogeneration plants that started operating in the sector of 'Buildings for Services', eight correspond



80

to healthcare facilities with inpatient services (hospitals).

In 2008, out of a total of 148 cogeneration plants, there were 133 plants in 'Industry and Agriculture'

and 15 in 'Buildings for Services'; in 2014 the distribution was 123 cogeneration plants in 'Industry

and Agriculture' and 20 in 'Buildings for Services', totalling 143 cogeneration plants. When expressed

as a percentage, the number of cogeneration plants in 'Industry and Agriculture' decreased by about

8 %, and it increased by about 33 % in 'Buildings for Services'.

Given the current legislation, the new cogeneration plants that started functioning between 2008-

2014 were considered to be of high-efficiency, therefore partially fulfilling the potential identified in

2008. These new cogeneration plants are distributed throughout the whole of Continental Portugal

(although mostly in the north and south, and in a smaller number in the centre of the country). Most

of the cogeneration plants that stopped working were mainly located in the north. It should be

mentioned that in 2014 alone 17 cogeneration plants shut down, 16 of which in the 'Industry and

Agriculture' sector.

9.2 Evolution of the electric capacity of the cogeneration plants during the 2008-2014 period

Figure 9.1 shows the evolution of the electricity capacity of cogeneration plants between 2008 and

2014. It should be noted that the reduction in the installed capacity is the result of the closing down

of some of the older plants (due to reaching the end of their working life), namely some plants

powered by fuel oil, which are now significantly less viable.

1 800

1 400

1 399.3

1 595

1 761 1 800 1 759

1 200

1 000

800

600

400

200

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Figure 9.6 - Evolution of the electricity capacity in MW of the cogeneration plants between 2008 and 2014 (Source: DGEG 2014)

Figures 9.7 and 9.8 show distributions expressed as percentages for the two large sectors

analysed: 'Industry and Agriculture' and 'Buildings for Services'.

1 906 1 916



81

Figure 9.7 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the cogeneration plants by sector of activity (Source: DGEG 2008).

Figure 9.7 Legend:




82

Figure 9.8 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the cogeneration plants that shut down by sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG).

Figure 9.9 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the new cogeneration plants by sector of activity for the 2008-2014 period (Source: DGEG).

Figure 9.10 - Breakdown of the electricity output of the cogeneration plants by sector of activity in 2014 (Source: DGEG).



83

Figure 9.8, 9.9 and 9.10 Legend:


Table 6 shows the installed capacities (electrical and thermal) of the cogeneration plants in each of

the sectors of activity for the 2008-2014 period.

Table 5 - Electrical and thermal capacities of the cogeneration plants analysed for the 2008-2014

period (Source: DGEG)

Year

Installed Capacity (MW)

Thermal Input (MW)

Sector

Installed Capacity (MW)

Thermal Input (MW)

2008 1 399 5 462.0 Industry and Agriculture 1 355 5 413.1 Buildings for Services 45 48.8

Shut down 226 583 Industry and Agriculture 217 576.3 Buildings for Services 12 6.7

New 261 294.9 Industry and Agriculture 233.8 277.5 Buildings for Services 27.2 17.4

2014 1 759 4 631 Industry and Agriculture 1 726 4 589 Buildings for Services 33 42.1

The analysis of Figures 9.7 to 9.10 and of Table 6 allows us to conclude that between 2008 and 2014

the installed electrical capacity of the cogeneration plants in the sector 'Industry and Agriculture'

increased (which means that their relative weight increased) and it decreased in the 'Buildings for

Services' sector. This conclusion is reinforced by the capacity of the plants that shut down and by the

capacity of the new plants that came into operation. Globally, the cogeneration installed electrical

capacity increased between 2008 and 2014. In 2008 there were 1399 MWe installed in cogeneration

plants; in 2014 there was approximately an additional 360 MWe installed (corresponding to an

increase of around 25.7 %). When expressed as a percentage, the installed electrical capacity of the

cogeneration plants in 'Industry and Agriculture' increased by about 27.4 %, and it decreased by

about 26 % in 'Buildings for Services'. Comparing 2008 and 2014 globally, there was an increase in

the 'Industry and Agriculture' percentage of 2 % in relation to the initial figure. In absolute terms,

there was a large increase in the installed electrical capacity in 2014 when compared to 2008, as a

result of improvements made to several plants.

As expected, the percentages in terms of the number of cogeneration plants in the two large sectors

studied are now very different from the percentages expressed in the capacity of those same plants;

especially because the plants from the 'Buildings for Services' sector are normally much smaller than



84

those built in the 'Industry and Agriculture' sector.

The economic potential identified in the previous report (corresponding to 60 % of the technical

potential identified) was described in Table 6. Comparing these values with the values for the

currently installed cogeneration electrical capacity, we can see that we are still short of realising the

high-efficiency cogeneration potential. As an example, we just have to compare the value (even in

the pessimistic scenario) of the installed electrical capacity in cogeneration plants mentioned in Table

7 (1 862 MWe), with the value from Table 6 - 1 759 MWe (current data from the DGEG).

Table 6 - Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in 2010, 2015 and 2020, according to the DGEG (2010)

Year Optimistic scenario (MWe)

Pessimistic scenario (MWe)

2010 1 750 1 697 2015 2 065 1 862 2020 2 320 1 979

A possible explanation for the potential for high-efficiency cogeneration previously identified to have

fallen well short of expectations may be the economic crisis that the country went through, mainly

after 2010, which resulted in a shortfall in investment in this area, as well as in the reduction of

incentives from 2011 onwards.

9.3 District heating and cooling, and trigeneration

In Portugal, according to data supplied by the DGEG, out of 185 cogeneration facilities analysed

during the 2008-2015 period (148 existing in 2008 and 37 new facilities that started operating

between 2008 and 2015), it was possible to identify four cogeneration systems that corresponded to

heat and cooling distribution networks

The main plant identified supplies the area of Parque das Nações in Lisbon. In addition to residential

buildings, this network supplies services buildings (hotels and offices, amongst other). This plant has

an installed electrical capacity of around 5 MWe. Another central in Maia generates cooling and

heating but within an internal network in the same building (this facility was classified under 'Industry

and Agriculture', according to the associated CAE). There are two other plants (one in Oeiras and one

in Madeira) which supply thermal products (vapour, hot and cold water) to business/industrial parks.

These two have also been classified as belonging to the 'Industry and Agriculture' sector, according to

the associated CAE.

The previously mentioned cogeneration systems correspond effectively to trigeneration (combined

production of heat, cooling by absorption and electricity). In addition to these trigeneration systems,

two other of these systems were identified in buildings (one in Loures and another one in Oeiras),

although one of them (the one in Loures) had been classified as 'Industry and Agriculture', since the



85

CAE associated to that facility resulted in that classification. However, it is known that the purpose of

this cogeneration system (associated to an absorption chiller) is to supply space heating and cooling

to an office building (services).

The reference (Telmo Rocha, 2016) also allowed us to determine that there are a further three

trigeneration systems in buildings in Portugal. According to this source, they are all installed in

hospitals.

9.4 Identification of the technical potential of high-efficiency cogeneration in

Portugal

9.4.1 Definitions and assumptions - potential for cogeneration and for the consumption of

thermal energy

The need to ensure a minimal saving of primary energy to define a cogeneration unit as high-efficient

requires a minimal use of the heat generated by the unit. As such, the sizing of the units should be

made based on the thermal needs that can be fully or partially fulfilled by the heat reused from the

unit's residual heat. It was therefore decided that it was essential to use the consumptions of thermal

energy as reference for determining the cogeneration technical potential, namely the consumptions

by sector included in the national energy balances, excluding consumption of combustible fuel

specifically for the transportation sector and oil products not for energy.

The consumptions for each sector will result in a potential per sector based on percentages that can

be replaced, taking into account the specific characteristics of the sector, such as the use of energy

for cooking or other purposes that cannot be supplied directly by a thermal energy source such as

hot water or vapour.

The consumption of energy in the services sector in Portugal is dominated by electricity (73 % of the

total), with the consumption of thermal energy corresponding only to 19 %, of which part will consist

of uses that cannot be replaced, such as the use for cooking. There are several reasons for this

discrepancy. On the one hand, the relatively mild winter of the regions where most of the population

resides and where most services buildings are concentrated does not result in substantial heating

consumption needs. On the other hand, services buildings normally have a very significant number of

equipment that contributes in itself with significant internal gains. These two factors also contribute

to the significant use electric air-conditioning equipment, even for the generation of heating, both

due to the lack of feasibility of alternative systems, and to the reduced number of hours during which

heating is required, as well as the use of high-efficiency equipment that is also used for the

generation of cooling (reversible air-conditioning equipment). Finally, the explanations already

provided for the reduced need for heating increase the need for cooling in these buildings, therefore

contributing to increase the consumption of electricity, which is in itself already high due to the many

pieces of electrical equipment that currently dominate these spaces.



86

In that sense, the use of classic cogeneration systems (meaning systems for the exclusive generation

of heat and electricity) has limited viability, except for cases where a significant amount of heating is

used throughout the year, which is the case in swimming pools and hospitals, although in the former

the potential advantage of generating heat from solar energy should be considered.

As an alternative, the generation of cooling based on the residual heat of the electric power

generation unit could be a solution to this problem, making the cogeneration units viable by ensuring

the use of heat for a sufficient amount of time for the savings created to justify the investment.

However, it is necessary to compare that possibility with the alternative of simply using electricity in

good equipment for the generation of cold by compression, given the large existing differences in

performance coefficients, otherwise it is not guaranteed that the intended savings in primary energy

that justify any type of support for these systems will occur.

The generation of cold from residual heat can use one of two base systems: absorption and

adsorption. In both cases, the best systems at present have different varieties with different

requirements in terms of the input thermal fluids, with coefficients of performance (output cooling

energy over input thermal energy) of 0.71 for simple effect chillers that only require input water and

1.37 for double effect equipment that require input steam. For that reason, the latter type of

equipment is only adequate for the direct burn of combustible fuel or to be coupled with turbines; it

is not indicated for coupling with the small combustion engines of the cogeneration systems normally

used in buildings. In any case, existing absorption and adsorption chillers available on the market are

units of significant size and that carry high costs; the double effect chillers are normally larger

because of the larger complexity of the system.

On the other hand, the best cooling equipment by compression have a COP of 5.5 for capacities

under 500 kWt, 7 for capacities between 500 kWt and 1 000 kWt, and 7.5 for capacities above 1 000

kWt (thermal cooling input).

Based on the above values and on the reference values in the directive, assuming that the

cogeneration is fuelled by natural gas and LV connections (small buildings) or MV connections (large

buildings), it was possible to determine that in the first case (which uses a combustion engine and

simple effect chillers) the generation of primary energy savings will imply the use of the effective

heat (as heating or HWSP) equivalent to 23 % of the electric energy generated or to 25 % of the

cooling energy generated. In the second case, even assuming the possibility of using a turbine and a

double effect chiller, the comparison with the best large chillers requires the use of heating

equivalent to 38 % of the electricity generated, and the same 25 % of cooling energy. In either

option, the use of the system only for the generation of electricity and cooling corresponds to an

increase in the consumption of primary energy when compared to separate production. These results

get worse if there is waste of the heat generated, which means that there must be great care in



87

selecting the correct size of unit, which must be done according to consumption and not to situations

of peak demand.

Faced with these conclusions, the applications that are most likely to enable cogeneration systems in

the services sector must lie in the healthcare sub-sector, since hospitals have constant requirements

of heat and cooling. Other applications, such as in the hotel trade or in office buildings, will be

seriously conditioned by the very short length of the heating season. In addition, as they have a very

small base consumption of heating, or a small period of use resulting from working schedules, that

will have a strong impact on the return on investment.

It should be noted that the reference values of the directive have been used in this analysis for

cogeneration using natural gas adjusted for losses relating to the type of interconnecting voltage,

which assume that the avoided power generation was from a combined cycle plant, therefore

assuming that the electricity produced in cogeneration will be included in the predictable and

controllable share of the order. The consideration of a different generation mix (with the integration

of renewable energies, which is the aim of the EU) would make cogeneration in the services sector

less attractive. The complete decarbonisation in the buildings sector, which is the objective of the EU

for the following decades, points to an increasing use of high-efficiency electric equipment using

electricity from renewable sources.

The potential for cogeneration in the residential sector results from the profiling of the consumption

needs, which were analysed in chapter 7. According to the mapping carried out, it was verified that

the heat and cooling needs for the residential sector represent a very small value, reaching a

maximum of 300 toe/km2, or 3.49 kWh/m2, a value which is significantly lower than the 130 kWh/m2

threshold included in the directive supporting documentation as the minimum value to justify the

consideration of district heating networks. Although the possibility of making local units viable is not

excluded at the outset, if avoiding the costs with infrastructure, the costs per unit rise considerably

with the reduction of the installed capacity. There is also a marked improvement of the housing

thermal envelope, which reduces even more the heating needs. Therefore, and considering the

reduced period for the use of heating given the short duration of the heating season, it is unlikely

that cogeneration will be viable in this sector.

9.4.2 Distribution of the consumption of thermal energy in the reference year by activity

sector

We can obtain values for the consumption of thermal energy by sector of activity based on the 2014

(DGEG) energy balance. In Table 9 we can see the total consumption of thermal energy and the

consumption of thermal energy after taking out road fuels and oil products not for energy

(highlighted column). For information, we have also shown consumption of thermal energy already in

the form of heating from cogeneration units, as well as the total consumption of electricity; we can

see there is a clear importance of cogeneration in the sectors of paper and pulp, food and drink,



88

textiles, wood and wooden articles, chemicals and plastics and rubber. We can also see that there is

an already significant weight in the services sector.

In relation to this last sector, we can make some additional discrimination based on consumption

statistics supplied by the DGEG. Table 10 shows some of the services sub-sectors with greatest

potential for application, both in terms of consumption of thermal energy, but also in terms of the

relevance they already have in cogeneration. The line 'Other (various)' corresponds to the sum of the

consumption of various sub-sectors without particular characteristics to make them obvious targets

for cogeneration. The line 'Adjustments' corresponds to differences between the total and the

corresponding estimate from the energy balance, justified as follows:

• Two of the cogeneration units operating in the services sector are classified in the list provided by the DGEG with CAE 35 - Electricity, gas, vapour, hot and cold water and cold air, without it being clear to which specific sectors their production is allocated. On the other hand, some of the remaining cogeneration units are also possibly officially registered under CAE 35, so that the calculation of the consumption of combustible fuels, namely natural gas, contains discrepancies and results in an error of 7.4 %.

• The total consumption shown in the energy balance includes an estimate of the contribution of renewable energies without electricity which is not possible to break down by sector. In any case, at the outset it is not desirable that the consumption met by renewable energies is replaced, so that the values indicated as 'non-road fuels + heat' will correspond to the portion of consumption that can be fulfilled with heating from cogeneration.



89

Table 7 - Energy consumption by sector in toe - 2014 (Source: DGEG)

Total of combustible

fuels

Heat

Thermal without

road fuels

Electricity

Total

AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES

355 760 1 203 19 965 70 912 427 875

Agriculture 269 851 1 203 16 323 67 118 338 172

Fisheries 85 909 3 642 3 794 89 703

MINING AND QUARRYING 36 148 22 800 28 503 52 697 111 645 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1 931 074 1 171 323 2 973 976 1 258 872 4 361 269

Food, drinks and tobacco 232 466 53 170 259 323 159 503 445 139

Textiles 126 081 38 391 163 273 90 512 254 984 Paper and paper products 155 307 945 266 1 089 575 265 666 1 366 239 Chemicals and plastics 158 936 91 416 228 434 182 020 432 372 Ceramics 221 094 15 806 234 674 31 495 268 395 Glass and glass products 199 259 0 197 882 43 486 242 745 Cement and Lime 570 214 968 555 323 73 899 645 081 Metallurgy 26 252 0 25 226 20 142 46 394 Ironwork industry 56 321 0 54 540 109 554 165 875 Clothing, footwear and leather goods 19 324 2 197 19 486 24 104 45 625

Wood and wooden articles 45 578 11 222 49 091 43 151 99 951

Rubber 7 029 10 194 14 783 17 948 35 171 Electrical and mechanical engineering

77 126 762 69 656 165 971 243 859

Other manufacturing industries 36 087 1 931 12 710 31 421 69 439

CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC WORKS 232 942 30 894 27 343 260 285

DOMESTIC SECTOR 1 528 845 1 471 348 1 024 064 2 552 909 SERVICES 483 298 31 081 423 037 1 426 826 1 941 205

In relation to the services sector (Table 8), the importance of the healthcare sector is evident, since

the contribution of the cogeneration units already installed in hospitals is already visible. It is also

clear that there is no identifiable cogeneration units in the hotel trade sector, traditionally pointed

out as a sector with potential, which seems to be in line with the justifications already provided for

the limited viability of this sector in Portugal. There are also no cogeneration units identified in the

public administration services. The remaining units identified include the supply of sports centres,

swimming pools, the unit that supplies the only existing district heating and cooling network, units

installed in large shopping centres and units installed in large office buildings, including in the latter

the use of residual heat for the generation of cold by absorption chillers.



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Table 8 - Energy consumption in the services sector - 2014 (Source: DGEG)

Economic activity

Heat (toe)

Non-road fuels + heat

(toe)

Electricity

(toe)

Total (toe)

Wholesale trade, except cars and motorcycles 3 387

36 562

243 367

279 929

Accommodation 0 37 101 57 294 94 395 Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

0

39 034

148 865

188 038

Education 0 16 257 28 566 4 Human health activities 10 022 61 776 38 583 100 365

Social work activities with accommodation 0 24 980 19 148 44 129 Sports activities and amusement and recreation

1 692 12 568 17 921 30 495

Other (various) 9 723 173 745 874 488 1 072 864 Adjustment 6 258 -27 677 -1 406 86 166 Total 31 081 374 346 1 426 826 1 941 205 Adjustment as % of total 20.1

-

-

4.4

9.5 Technical potential of cogeneration and its evolution in 2014-2015

In 2014, the working cogeneration units totalled 1 759 MW of electric installed capacity and

4 631 MW of thermal capacity, having generated a total of 7 484 GWh of electricity and 19 249 GWh

of thermal energy, corresponding to a T/E ratio of 2.57. The also had an overall efficiency of 79 % and

an average number of plant utilization hours of 4 349. The application of the assumptions and

reference values associated with the directive, taking into account the combustible fuels used in each

unit and the network losses due to the location's voltage level, results in expected global savings of

30 740 TJ (0.73 Mtoe) of primary energy, corresponding to 33.5 % of savings.

The current impact of cogeneration in energy consumption can be determined from the data of the

2014 energy balance, by comparing the recorded data for cogenerated heating consumption by

sector with the replaceable thermal energy consumption, and by comparing the production of

electric power in cogeneration units with the global electricity consumption (Table 11).

In the case of the services sub-sectors, it was once again necessary to use the statistical data for each

energy source and the cogeneration data, which were both supplied by the DGEG, and which

resulted in the results shown in Table 10.



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Table 9 - Weight of cogeneration in 2014 by sector of activity (Source: DGEG)

Thermal (toe) Electricity (toe)

Production

Replaceable consumption

Replaceable heat

Production

Total consumption

Production /

Consumption

AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES 1 203 15 124 8

1 373 70 912 2 % Agriculture 1 203 11 485 10 % 1 373 67 118 2 % Fisheries 0 3 639 0

0 3 794 0 %

MINING AND QUARRYING 22 800 28 503 80 % 16 815 52 697 32 % MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1 171 323 2 811 963 42 % 442 395 1 258 872 35 %

Food, drinks and tobacco 53 170 234 813 23 % 25 445 159 503 16 % Textiles 38 391 161 532 24 % 44 705 90 512 49 % Paper and paper products 945 266 1 062 925 89 % 314 225 265 666 118 % Chemicals and plastics 91 416 227 840 40 % 30 151 182 020 17 % Ceramics 15 806 217 841 7

10 846 31 495 34 %

Glass and glass products 0 197 882 0

0 43 486 0 % Cement and lime 968 493 032 0

1 297 73 899 2 %

Metallurgy 0 25 222 0

0 20 142 0 % Ironwork industry 0 54 540 0

0 109 554 0 %

Clothing, footwear and leather goods

2 197 18 499 12 % 2 645 24 104 11 %

Wood and wooden articles 11 222 21 818 51 % 6 029 43 151 14 % Rubber 10 194 14 275 71 % 4 139 17 948 23 % Electrical and mechanical engineering

762 69 488 1 %

1 253 165 971 1 %

Other manufacturing industries 1 931 12 256 16 % 1 660 31 421 5 %

CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC WORKS 0 30 593 0 % 0 27 343 0 %

DOMESTIC SECTOR 0 669 592 0

0 1 024 064 0 % SERVICES 31 081 374 346 5

29 860 1 426 826 2 %

The data in Table 11 shows that some sectors are already very close to their technical potential,

namely in the paper and pulp sub-sectors and in the rubber sub-sector, both because of the thermal

consumption reached, but also because of the percentage of the electricity consumption covered by

production; the latter, being an indication of a net input into the network especially in the case of

paper and pulp, will certainly give rise to the existence of physical interconnection limitations which

will at least reduce the economic viability of further investments.

Although the textile sector also shows some growth potential from a thermal point of view, it can

also be limited in this respect, since the production of electricity reaches almost 50 % of its

consumption. In the services sector, the 'human health activities' sub-sector already shows a share of

replacement which is not irrelevant.



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Table 10 - Weight of cogeneration in the services sector in 2014 (Source: DGEG)

Thermal Electricity

Economic activity

% replacement

% production/ consumption

Wholesale trade, except cars and motorcycles 9.26 %

1.23 %

Accommodation 0.00 % 0.00 % Public administration and defence; compulsory social security

0.00 %

0.00 %

Education 0.00 % 0.00 % Human health activities 16.22 % 33.41 % Social work activities with accommodation 0.00 % 0.00 % Sports activities and amusement and recreation

13.46 % 9.05 %

Other (various) 5.60 % 1.08 % Total 8.30 % 2.09 %

However, it should be noted that part of the heat generated in cogeneration units in the services

sector is being used to generate cooling in absorption systems, so the calculations of replaced

thermal energy and electricity may not be precise, both because the generated heat did not replace

the generation of heat separately (with this replacement causing an over-evaluation), and because

the generation of cooling avoided a corresponding consumption in electricity, thus having an

underestimated impact. It should also be highlighted that the calculation of thermal energy in Table

10 does not include the contribution from renewable sources of energy (including biomass) due to

lack of data, which explains the differences with Table 12 in the calculation of thermal energy

replacement percentages for the whole sector.

The technical cogeneration potential for the production of heat can be estimated by applying the

maximum replacement percentages stated in section 3.1 (Klotz et al 2014) to the replaceable heating

consumption values, resulting in around 2.7 Mtoe of potentially usable heat as shown in Table 13.

The same table also shows estimates for the consumption of cooling in the industry, in the residential

sector and in services, resulting in 0.5 Mtoe of final energy, which would correspond to between 1.1

Mtoe and 2.2 Mtoe of additional heat to feed absorption chillers, therefore resulting in between 3.8

and 4.9 Mtoe of thermal production resulting from cogeneration.

Assuming the average T/E ratio and the average number of functioning hours from existing

cogeneration units in 2014 (2.57 and 4 349 h, respectively), the electric power generated and the

installed electric capacity would correspond to 12 TWh (2.8 GW) just to meet the heating needs and

between 17.3 TWh to 22 TWh (4.0 GW to 5.1 GW) to equally meet the cooling needs. However, the



93

fulfilment of all this potential is not realistic, since it does not take into account the pattern of

functioning of the cogeneration units, the need for maintenance interruptions, or basic aspects such

as the minimum functioning capacity. As such, the technical potential will surely be higher than the

attainable potential, and the latter should be the one considered for any political decision. However,

the determination of this attainable potential is particularly difficulty since there is no detailed data

or basis for comparison, given the variety of approaches and of the nature of the industry and other

entities using the heating and cooling that is generated.

Therefore, only the sub-sectors of the manufacturing industry with greater cogeneration potential

were considered, both because of the amount of heating consumed, and because of the amount of

heating that can be replaced, namely:

• Food, drinks and tobacco,

• Textiles,

• Paper and paper products,

• Chemicals and plastics,

• Wood, wooden articles,

• Rubber.

Similarly, we have only considered the services sub-sectors where the use of cogeneration is already

meaningful, corresponding to around 40 % of the consumption of electricity and thermal energy

(excluding road fuels) of this sector. The remaining consumption is of around 1.8 Mtoe of potentially

usable heating and 0.25 Mtoe of consumption for cooling, to which would correspond between 2.4

Mtoe and 2.9 Mtoe of thermal production from cogeneration or, based on the same estimates, 11

TWh to 13 TWh of generation (29 % of national consumption) and 2.4 GW to 3.0 GW of installed

capacity, representing an increase in capacity of between 700 MW to 1 300 MW in relation to the

currently installed capacity, which is 1 759 MW.

The numbers that have now been obtained, although still subject to error, have a higher degree of

accuracy since they are based on sectors with a current coverage that is already reasonably

significant, and that altogether represent the largest share of potential due to the nature of their

production process/economic activity, with the assumption being made that the margin of error in

respect of the total fulfilment of the potential in these sectors is compensated by the potential of the

sectors that have not been considered.

Based on Tables 16 and 18, we can still anticipate some future evolution of this potential as a slight

negative trend, as the result of the severe reduction of consumption projected for the sub-sectors of

paper and pulp industry (-7.3 %), and textile industry (-19.4 %), which are precisely the two most



94

relevant sectors in the context of cogeneration, and also a reduction in the consumption for air-

conditioning in the services sector (-10.9 %), despite a slight increase in the global consumption of

this sector (1.7 %). Therefore, the attainable potential in 2025 will be between 2.2 Mtoe and

2.7 Mtoe of thermal production from cogeneration, or between 10 TWh to 12 TWh of electricity

generation or between 2.3 GW to 2.8 GW of installed electrical capacity.

Table 11 - Calculation of the potential heating and cooling to be delivered by cogeneration units (Source: DGEG)

ENERGY BALANCE toe

OVERA

LL TOTAL

Total replaceable

thermal energy

Replacement

potential

Cooling consumption

(estimate)

2014 (provisional) toe toe (%) toe toe

FINAL CONSUMPTION 15 166 780 3 930 121 66.21 % 2 602 023 520 053

AGRICULTURE AND FISHERIES 427 875 15 124 Agriculture 338 172 11 485 100.00 % 11 485 Fisheries 89 703 3 639 MINING AND QUARRYING 111 645 28 503 MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 4 361 269 2 811 963 174 451

Food, drinks and tobacco 445 139 234 813 100.00 % 234 813 Textiles 254 984 161 532 81.00 % 130 841

Paper and paper products 1 366 239 1 062 925 100.00 % 1 062 925

Chemicals and plastics 432 372 227 840 100.00 % 227 840 Ceramics 268 395 217 841 7.00 % 15 249 Glass and glass products 242 745 197 882 7.00 % 13 852 Cement and lime 645 081 493 032 10.00 % 49 303 Metallurgy 46 394 25 222 19.00 % 4 792 Ironwork industry 165 875 54 540 30.00 % 16 362 Clothing, footwear and leather goods

45 625 18 499 81.00 % 14 984

Wood and wooden articles 99 951 21 818 81.00 % 17 673 Rubber 35 171 14 275 100.00 % 14 275 Electrical and mechanical engineering

243 859 69 488 69.00 % 47 947

Other manufacturing industries 69 439 12 256 81.00 % 9 927

CONSTRUCTION AND PUBLIC WORKS 260 285 30 593 81.00 % 24 780

TRANSPORT 5 511 592 0 0 % 0 DOMESTIC SECTOR 2 552 909 669 592 60.00 % 401 755 2 009 SERVICES 1 941 205 374 346 81.00 % 303 220 343 593



95

9.6 Economic potential of high-efficiency cogeneration

9.6.1 Scenarios for evolution

The data submitted in the previous work relating to the economic evolution of cogeneration in

Portugal indicated two scenarios of evolution until 2020 (a pessimistic and an optimistic scenario) as

shown in Figure 9.11. These scenarios were also cited and incorporated in 2014 in the report of the

European Project CODE2 - Cogeneration Observatory and Dissemination Europe (CODE2, 2014),

where they showed the evolution of the economic potential for cogeneration by 2020.

Figure 9.11 – Economic scenarios for cogeneration (Source: EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia, 2010)

Figure 9.11 Legend:

Portuguese: English: Pessimista Pessimistic Otimista Optimistic Ano Year

In Table 12, the values for both scenarios (pessimistic and optimistic) are shown, as well as a

projection until 2026 based on the evolution trends of the technical potential calculations used in this

study.



96

[MW

e]

Table 12 – Scenarios for evolution in MWe (Source: EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia. 2008)

Year Pessimistic scenario

(MWe)

Optimistic scenario

(MWe)

2008 1 070 1 770

2014 1 346 2 225

2015 1 294 2 140

2020 1 461 2 415

2026 1 573 2 600

Figure 9.12 shows the graph of the evolution of the economic potential for the 2008-2026 period.

EVOLUTION SCENARIOS OF THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL FOR COGENERATION

3 000

2 500

2 000

1 500

1 000

500

0

2008 2014 2015 2020 2026

Real Pessimistic Scenario Optimistic Scenario

Figure 9.12 – Scenarios of evolution of the economic potential for cogeneration until 2026 (Source: DGE)

According to the data provided by the DGEG, and taking into consideration that the working

cogeneration units in 2014 totalled 1 759 MW of installed electric capacity, since there are no



97

cogeneration projects planned for the next few years, it is expected that the evolution of

cogeneration will be closer to the pessimistic scenario shown in the previous graph.

For example, it is known that at present it is not expected that there will be investments of this size

(mainly due to the public nature of most of them), in the services sector, and in particular in hospital

buildings (which represent the buildings with greatest potential for the installation of cogeneration

units). Only the private healthcare operators (which in some cases include some international

groups) could potentially have the financial capacity to kick-start projects of this nature. However,

given the legislative and incentives framework current in force, these operators could consider the

investment in these cogeneration units as not being very attractive from an economic point of view.

Despite all the problems that the Portuguese economy went through, and continues to go through,

there is a high economic potential in high-efficiency cogeneration, especially in the industrial sector.

9.6.1.1 Projected evolution of consumption

The Primes model (Capros et al. 2016) is probably the most complete basis for the prediction of

energy consumption in the European Union. According to this model, in its update for 2016, the

consumption in Portugal should evolve according to Table 13, which includes the projected

contribution of cogeneration in meeting the heating needs.

On the other hand, there are projected reductions of consumption in the industrial sector and in

transportations, which will be practically compensated by increases in the residential sector and

services sector.

Cogeneration will, therefore, contribute with a share of electric power produced and consumed in

Portugal which is not insignificant as shown in Table 14, with an expected 11.3 % increase in the

contribution for the total consumption of electricity (from 19 % to 21.1 %), after reaching a peak of

23.4 % in 2020.



98

Table 13 - Projected evolution of consumption of energy in Portugal between 2015 and 2035 (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)

Units - ktoe

2015

2020

2025 2015- 2025

Primary energy consumption 21 514 19 893 19 646 -8.7 % Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 16 789 16 831 16 655 -0.8 % by sector Industry 5 066 5 193 4 943 -2.4 % Energy intensive industries 3 613 3 713 3 525 -2.4 % Other industrial sectors 1 452 1 480 1 418 -2.4 % Residential 2 632 2 742 2 780 5.6 % Tertiary 2 224 2 251 2 250 1.2 % Transport(5) 6 867 6 645 6 682 -2.7 % by fuel Solids 17 15 11 -36.8 % Oil 8 142 7 717 7 695 -5.5 % Gas 1 691 1 809 1 740 2.9 % Electricity 3 865 4 051 4 100 6.1 % Heat (from CHP and District Heating) 325 366 338 4.0 % Renewable energy forms 2 748 2 868 2 764 0.6 % Other 1 4 6 405.8 %

Table 14 - Projected evolution of the production of electricity and of the proportion generated in cogeneration units in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)

2014

Actual values

2020

2025 2015- 2025

Gross Electricity generation by source (GWhe)

48 507

47 988

% of gross electricity from CHP 14.2 % 22.7 % 21.0 % 32.4 %

% of electricity consumption from CHP 16.6 % 23.4 % 21.1 % 21.4 %

The projected evolution of consumption for the various sub-sectors of the industry is shown in Table

15, which also includes a distribution of the total by the various energy sources and also shows the

contribution of cogeneration in the sector. However, it should be noted that the cogeneration

contribution is possibly underestimated because of the non-inclusion of its own generation of

heat/vapour, according to Eurostat's calculation criteria, since in these cases what is considered is

the primary energy supplied to the cogeneration units of the industry and not the heat they produce

for direct use. In any case, one should note the projected increase of 11.3 % in the contribution of

cogenerated heat for non-electric uses, although that is also the result of a significant reduction of

the consumption of solid fuels (coal) and of derivatives of petroleum, only slightly compensated by



99

an increase in the consumption of natural gas. The projected reduction in consumption in the paper

and pulp (-7.3 %) and textiles (-19.4 %) sub-sectors is also relevant, as those sectors have a significant

weight in installed industrial cogeneration.

Table 15 - Projected evolution of consumption by industrial sub-sector in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario2016)

2015

2020

2025 2015- 2025

Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 5 066 5 193 4 943 -2.4 % By sector Iron and steel 162 173 156 -3.4 % Non-ferrous metals 22 22 22 -1.2 % Chemicals 443 453 444 0.1 % Non-metallic minerals 1 381 1 410 1 415 2.4 % Paper and pulp 1 605 1 656 1 488 -7.3 % Food, drink and tobacco 482 495 480 -0.5 % Engineering 202 216 212 4.8 % Textiles 269 258 217 -19.4 % Other industries 500 512 510 2.1 % By fuel Solids 17 15 11 -36.8 % Oil 771 682 625 -18.9 % Gas 1 203 1 300 1 222 1.6 % Electricity 1 346 1 396 1 427 6.0 % Heat (distributed CHP) 295 338 310 5.2 % Other (Biomass, waste, hydrogen etc.) 1 434 1 461 1 348 -6.0 % % Heat/total consumption 5.8 % 6.5 % 6.3 % 7.8 % % Heat/non-electric 7.9 % 8.9 % 8.8 % 11.3 %

The Primes model also includes a projection of consumption in the residential sector (Table 16),

including a residual contribution of cogeneration, possibly corresponding to the only existing heat

and cooling distribution network, despite the statistical data previously referenced (National Energy

Balance) not mentioning it. According to the illustrated data, the projected increase in consumption

in the sector will be essentially justified by the consumption of natural gas and other sources

(possibly biofuels and solar energy), with the projected increase in consumption for domestic

appliances and illumination possibly compensated by a smaller consumption of electricity for air-

conditioning, therefore resulting in a slight reduction in electricity consumption in this sector. Finally,

the evolution projected for the services and agriculture sectors is shown in Table 17.

In this case, it is worth highlighting the expected reduction in the consumption for air-conditioning,

compensated almost entirely by the increase in consumption in electric equipment and lighting. The

projected reduction in the contribution of cogeneration for these sectors should also be highlighted,

which is certainly connected with the expected reduction in the consumption for air-conditioning.



10

Table 16 - Projected evolution of residential consumption in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)

2015

2020

2025 2015- 2025

Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 2632 2742 2780 5.6 % By end use Heating and cooling (incl. cooking) 2210 2305 2334 5.6 % Electric appliances and lighting 422 438 446 5.7 % By fuel Solids 0 0 0

Oil 515 486 510 -1.0 % Gas 248 278 298 20.1 % Electricity 1 048 1 067 1 039 -0.9 % Heat 8 10 10 27.7 % Other 813 901 923 13.5 % % Heat/total consumption 0.30 % 0.35 % 0.36 % 20.9 % % Heat/non-electric 0.49 % 0.57 % 0.57 % 16.2 %

Table 17 - Projected evolution of consumption in the services and agriculture sectors in Portugal (Source: EU Reference Scenario 2016)

2015 2020 2025 2015 -2025 Final Energy Demand (in ktoe) 2 224 2 251 2 250 1.2 % By sector Services 1 803 1 829 1 833 1.7 % Agriculture 421 422 417 -1.0 % By end use Heating and cooling 1 194 1 134 1 064 -10.9 % Electric appliances and lighting 643 731 804 25.2 % Agriculture specific uses 387 386 382 -1.4 % By fuel Solids 0 0 0 Oil 465 396 374 -19.5 % Gas 226 216 198 -12.3 % Electricity 1 432 1 538 1 577 10.2 % Heat 22 19 18 -21.0 % Other 79 82 82 4.5 % % Heat/total consumption 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.8 % -21.9 % % Heat/non-electric 2.8 % 2.6 % 2.6 % -7.0 %



101

9.6.2 Cost-benefit analysis

Background and assumptions

In the previous chapters, it was verified that the current needs of heat and cooling in the residential

sector are significantly lower than the European average, which means that the areas with the

highest consumption density, corresponding to the central civil parishes of Lisbon and Porto, fall well

under the viability threshold established by Directive 2012/27/EU for heat and cooling supply

networks. This result is compatible with the perception that both the heating season and the cooling

season have a reduced duration and intensity, which has somehow led to a very reduced level of use

of central heating systems over time in favour of air-conditioning distribution systems with smaller

setup costs. The current evolution of the housing market should be highlighted, with a small number

of new builds, which would necessarily imply an investment in the refitting of existing housing and

constructions. It should be mentioned that even the existing centralised systems are mostly only

centralised at the level of the individual house, so that the construction of infrastructures would have

to include a connection to each individual house, in addition to the internal network in the house in

the many cases where this does not exist.

In those circumstances, it was decided that it was only relevant to carry out a cost-benefit analysis of

individual projects connected with industrial units and/or large services buildings, when justified by

the consumption of heating. Therefore, it was decided that this analysis should focus on the generic

viability of those projects on an individual basis in terms of electrical capacity, taking into account

different size categories and certain conditions that limited usage under two essential perspectives:

the perspective of the investor and the perspective of society.

The perspective of the individual investor looks at the benefits and costs incurred in by the investor,

therefore including the existing cogeneration incentives in the shape of the guaranteed value of the

electric power generated (where applicable), the value of the thermal energy produced, the

combustible fuel costs, as well as any rates and taxes. The social perspective looks at the benefits and

costs felt by society, eliminating internal trades, such as the incentives and any rates and taxes, but

including the avoided external factors associated with the savings in primary energy.

The discount rate applied in the calculation of updated values should also be lower than the rate

used in the private perspective, since society does not aim to make a profit and should ensure the

best interests of future generations. In both cases it is considered that the investment occurs in year

zero, considering that possible capital interest will be included in the discount rate used. In addition,

the NVP, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of the investment and the simple payback period will also

be calculated, therefore facilitating the analysis.

The net annual benefits in year i (𝐵𝑖) in the private perspective can therefore be calculated according



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to the following formula:

with 𝐸𝑒𝑖 representing the generation of electric power by the cogeneration unit in year i, 𝑉𝑒

representing the unit value of electric power generated, 𝐸𝑡𝑖 the production of useful thermal energy,

𝑉𝑡 the unit value to allocate to the useful thermal energy, 𝐸𝑝𝑖 the primary energy consumed by the

cogeneration unit, C𝑐 the daily cost of combustible fuel used and C𝑂&𝑀 the annual operation and

maintenance costs.

From the perspective of society, since the electricity and thermal energy produced are replacing

energy produced by conventional units, the annual net benefits result only from the savings in

primary energy (SPE), which is calculated as a percentage figure according to the instructions in the

directive in relation to the reference values for the separate production of electricity and heat.

Therefore, the net annual benefits in year i from the perspective of society can therefore be

calculated according to the following formula:

with C𝑒𝑥𝑡 corresponding to the external costs per unit associated with the combustible fuel considered.

The electric power generated per installed kW (𝐸𝑒) is only the result of the number of peak hours of

use to be considered. The analysis of the working cogeneration units in Portugal determined an

average use of 4 255 hours, a value which is close to the 4 500 hours normally stated as being

necessary to make the units viable. The analysis being carried out will use a variable band around this

value.

The thermal power produced with be calculated according to the electric power generated, based on

a predetermined T/E ratio. The average value calculated for the working units in Portugal was 2.57

and from the equipment data we can consider ratios between 0.75 and 3 as viable .

The primary energy consumed (𝐸𝑝) can therefore be calculated based on the electric and thermal

components generated and in a specification of savings in primary energy to occur, corresponding, at

least, to the definition of high-efficiency cogeneration, i.e. stipulating PEP = 0,1 (10 %), according to

the following formula:

With ɳ𝑒l representing the reference value for the separate generation of electricity and ɳ𝑡 the

reference value for the separate generation of heating, according to the directive.

It should be noted that, based on this definition, the formula that determines the annual net benefits

from the point of view of society results in:



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Test scenarios

The existing technical potential is split between the manufacturing industry and large services

buildings. The manufacturing industry represents most of the potential, which results from the

heating needs for processing, and where installed capacities could reach significant values. In large

services building, the installed capacity could reach much smaller values, especially when considering

the need to make viable close to 4 500 hours of peak use. In any case, the analysis included both data

relating to very small units and data relating to very large units, therefore seeking to include a wide

range of scenarios. The data considered is shown in Table 20.

Table 20 - Data of generic systems to be used in the test scenarios (Source: Eurostat 2016, subsidies

and costs of EU energy).

Case

Type

Electric capacity

[kW]

Capital cost

[EUR/kW]

Working life

[year]

Operation and

maintenance costs

- EUR/kWh

Price of combustible

fuels EUR/kWh

Price of electric power (sale)

EUR/kWh

Price of electric power

(self-consumption)

EUR/kWh

1 Motor 5 1 650 15 0.0687 0.0639 0.087 0.1527 2 Motor 50 711 15 0.0208 0.0639 0.087 0.1527 3 Motor 500 504 15 0.0208 0.0423 0.087 0.1126 4 Motor 2 000 409 15 0.0165 0.0333 0.087 0.1126 5 TG 5 000 561 20 0.0155 0.0333 0.087 0.1126 6 TG 10 000 478 20 0.0138 0.0333 0.087 0.1126 7 TG 20 000 408 20 0.0138 0.0274 0.087 0.1126 8 CCGT 100 000 401 20 0.0103 0.0265 0.065 - 9 CCGT 200 000 374 20 0.0103 0.0265 0.065 -

10 CCGT 450 000 373 20 0.0103 0.0265 0.065 -

It is assumed that all the systems used consume natural gas, which is the most desirable fossil fuel

from an environmental perspective.

The discount rates being applied are 4 %7 for the perspective of the society, which is the value

normally used by the European Commission, and 7 %8 for the medium-term private perspective.

For capacities up to 20 MW, the price of electricity which was used was the average value for 2016

(data until July) of the generation under the special scheme, 0.087 EUR/kWh (Source: ERSE), and in

7 Validated by the DGEG. 8 Value recommended by the European Commission and used in the reports by the other Member States. The

current interest rates are lower, but in a mid-term perspective it is more realistic to use higher values.



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the cases of self-consumption, the average price of purchase of electricity from the grid in MV,

0.1126 EUR/kWh (Source: ERSE).

For capacities higher than 20 MW, the price of electricity used was the wholesale price, resulting in a

value of 0.065 EUR/kWh as the indicative value as of October 2016 (Source: MIBEL)9.

Analysis of scenarios

The following typical scenarios were analysed in order to profile a wide range of possible facilities:

Case 1.

The following scenarios were tested in the case of a small internal combustion engine with a capacity

of 5 kW (Annex 2 – Table A2.1).

• Peak use between 4 000 and 4 500 hours;

• T/E ratio between 0.5 and 2.57;

• Cogeneration for self-consumption and falling under the special scheme cogeneration, with and without efficiency premiums.

The results show that only in the perspective of the society is there a positive NPV, and with a high

T/E ratio (2.6), assuming a significant use at the maximum capacity of more than 4 000 hours. In the

private perspective, there is no encouraging result in any case, which results from the small

difference between the electricity generated and the cost of combustible fuel, together with the

significant cost of operation and maintenance, which results in constant annual negative results.

Case 2.

This case, consisting of an internal combustion engine with a capacity of 50 kW (Annex 2 – Table

A2.2), was tested in a similar manner to the previous case. The results from the point of view of

society are now more interesting, being always positive in every case, and reaching a NPV of

1 143 EUR/kW in the most favourable case, with a peak use of 4 500 hours and a T/E ratio of 2.6.

However, in the private perspective it is only possible to achieve a positive NPV for case of self-

consumption and with a high T/E ratio, with a maximum of 611.6 EUR/kW, corresponding to a simple

payback period of 5 years and an IRR of 19 % for the situation of highest peak use and highest T/E

ratio.

Case 3.

The case of an internal combustion engine with a capacity of 500 kW (Annex 2 – Table A2.3), was

tested in a similar manner to the previous cases. The results from the point of view of society are

9 http://www.omie.es/files/flash/ResultadosMercado.swf

http://www.omie.es/files/flash/ResultadosMercado.swf



105

now very interesting, reaching a NPV of 217.34 EUR/kW, with an IRR of 23 % and a payback period on

investment of 4 years for the most favourable case. In the private perspective, it is now possible to

obtain a positive NPV, but only for self-consumption and for a high T/E ratio. Even then, it is possible

to obtain an IRR of 13 % and payback periods on investment of 6.7 years.

Case 4.

For a combustion engine of 2 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.4) tested in a similar manner, it was already

possible to obtain positive results in all the situations tested, reaching an IRR in the private

perspective of 46 %, a NPV of 1 340 EUR/kW and a simple payback period of 2.18 years for the most

favourable situation (maximum peak use and maximum T/E). Even in the perspective of the society

there are high yields, resulting from a good performance and an installation cost per unit lower than

in the previous cases.

Case 5.

The same scenarios that have already been explained were applied to the case of a gas turbine of

5 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.5) and, once again, there were positive results in all perspectives and in all

situations, only slightly worse in terms of indicators given the higher installation costs. Once again,

the self-consumption situation is the most favourable, especially when associated with a high use of

capacity and a high T/E ratio. However, even the scenario of remuneration as a cogenerator under

the special category is attractive, therefore allowing a great deal of flexibility for use of the electricity

generated, as long as there is a good use of the heat generated. Even then, the NPV in the private

perspective is not very high in those circumstances, remaining between 11.7 EUR/kW and

836.7 EUR/kW, which implies some care with the installation options.

Case 6.

Gas turbines of 10 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.6) show even better results than in the previous case,

which results from a lower cost per unit. It should be highlighted that, despite being a bit better, the

NPV in the private perspective continues to have inferior values sufficiently low to require some care

with the options chosen, should it not be possible to ensure a high level of peak use and a high T/E

ratio, especially if there is the intention of attempting to avoid the limitation of self-consumption.

Case 7.

For a gas turbine of 20 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.7), results continue to be very interesting, both from

the point of view of society and from the private point of view, with payback periods of around 2

years in the private perspective and of 5 to 10 years in the perspective of the society, depending on

the production ratio between useful thermal energy and electricity. However, it should be noted that

the NPV for the society varies between 141.7 EUR/kW and 817.3 EUR/kW, so that some variation in

the costs could affect the final result, namely if the implementation of cogeneration implies

significant costs in terms of construction works.



106

Case 8.

In this case, for a combined cycle power station of 100 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.8), only the limits of

4 000 and 4 500 hours of peak use and the variation of the T/E ratio between the stipulated limits

were tested. The results in the perspective of the society are always positive in terms of NPV,

showing internal rates of return between 8 and 22 % and simple payback periods between 4.5 and 10

years. In the private perspective it shows that peak use and the T/E ratio must be as high as possible,

since a positive NPV is not reached for a use of 4 000 hours with a low T/E ratio. Even then, it is

possible to reach internal rates of return between 15 and 17 % for T/E ratios in line with the current

average for the active cogeneration units in Portugal.

Case 9.

In this case, for a combined cycle power station of 200 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.9), as in the previous

case, only the limits of 4 000 and 4 500 hours of peak use and the variation of the T/E ratio between

the stipulated limits were tested, with excellent results being obtained for all cases, both in the

perspective of the society and in the private perspective, with payback periods between 5 and 10

years in the private perspective, and 4 to 10 years in the perspective of the society, reaching internal

rates of return of 18 % and 23 %, respectively. However, the private NPV varied between 4.4 and

372.3 EUR/kW, which could mean some risk, should the implementation costs be higher than those

used as reference. Therefore, there should be some care taken to ensure a good use of the thermal

energy, since the result is depends especially on the T/E ratio.

Case 10.

The final case, for a combined cycle power station of 450 MW (Annex 2 – Table A2.10), was analysed

under similar conditions to the previous example and has very similar results, with slightly lower

internal rates of return, but showing very positive NPVs in both perspectives, especially for uses of

capacity close to 4 500 hours and with higher T/E ratios.

9.7 Strategies, policies and measures for the realisation of the potential identified

9.7.1 Cogeneration public support measures - definition of priority interest and sectors

The combined generation of electricity and heat, especially for industrial purposes, has grown and

has reached a very significant importance in Portugal as a result of the various incentive schemes

that have been in place since 1988. In 2014, the generation of electricity in cogeneration represented

14 % of the national generation, 16 % of the consumption and 32 % of the thermoelectric generation,

and heating generated corresponded to 13 % of the final consumption of thermal energy (36 % if we

exclude the consumption of road fuels). According to the assumptions in the directive, the savings in

primary energy are estimated at 31 PJ, corresponding to a reduction of one third in the consumption



107

of primary energy which would be necessary to meet the final consumption currently supplied by

those units. In that sense, the promotion of cogeneration has shown to be a very successful policy,

contributing decisively for a greater energy efficiency of the national economy.

However, it has been possible to identify some cases of less adequate use of the incentives

throughout the years, which led to the existence of units with a negative contribution to the final

objective of generating savings, due to a very small level of use of the heat generated. As such, it is

important that the incentive systems take into account the interest of society and are adjusted

according to the meeting of objectives, despite the need to ensure the necessary stability for the

enabling of the investments desired.

As a result of the assessment carried out of the existing technical potential in the various sectors, it is

therefore concluded that it may be useful to continue to promote the installation of cogeneration

units in industrial facilities that can use the heat generated and that can generate savings of primary

energy substantial enough to meet the definition of high-efficiency cogeneration, whilst always

seeking to ensure the maintenance of economic viability.

In relation to the service sector in Portugal, ways of creating incentives for this type of facilities in

hospitals and other units that ensure the use of heating during a number of hours that is long enough

to justify cogeneration from an economic sense should be studied. It should also be taken into

account the fact that, even in the cases where it is viable to install equipment for the generation of

cooling from residual heat, only facilities that use a portion of the heating that is not negligible in a

direct manner (e.g. for space heating, hot sanitary water or for sterilisation) are socially interesting.

Finally, in relation to the residential sector, the Portuguese climate conditions together with the

economic situation of the households result in a level of consumption that is currently too small to

anticipate any viability in the installation of individual units or centralised systems with a respective

supply network. In addition, as has already been documented in this report, the highest consumption

densities, which corresponded only to some of the urban areas of Lisbon and Porto, are much lower

than the reference density in the European directive (130 kWh/m²). As such, despite a projected

increase of 5.6 % in the consumption for heating and cooling, it is not anticipated that that viability

can be met even by 2025. Moreover, the continuation and enhancement of the investment in the

improvement of the thermal envelope of buildings through upgrading works or the use of renewable

energies (namely in the thermal solar and solar photovoltaic energy sectors) will certainly be

investments which are more socially attractive and which reduce even more the interest of this

sector in cogeneration.

9.7.2 Incentive system for existing cogeneration and possible improvements

Decree-Law no. 68-A/2015 of 30 April 2015 amended for the second time Decree-Law no. 23/2010 of

25 March 2010, which had already been amended by Law no. 19/2010 of 23 August 2010 and which



108

creates the policies of the cogeneration activity, enshrining, on the one hand, the paradigm created

by Directive no. 2012/27/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council and, on the other hand,

sustainable remuneration schemes that maintain the incentive to renewable and high-efficiency

cogeneration.

According to this decree, there are two remuneration schemes, a general and a special scheme.

The general remuneration scheme is divided into two sub-categories: one that allows the total or

partial input of the energy generated into the public service electricity network and another that

allows the self-consumption of that energy, which in the case of cogeneration facilities with an

electrical input capacity equal to or less than 20 MW benefits from the guarantee of the purchase of

surplus energy by the supplier of last resort.

Cogeneration units with a network input capacity equal to or less than 20 MW which consume part

of the energy generated can deliver the energy that has not been consumed to the supplier of last

resort (SLR) according to the terms that have been pre-defined by a specific ministerial implementing

order.

The cogeneration units that sell all or part of the electricity generated in organised markets or

through bilateral contracts, whether because they exceed the input threshold or by own choice,

enter into those contracts according to the rules in force for the producers of electrical power in

general.

When the electricity generated, in addition to being used in auxiliary services, is destined to

supplying an associated unit and the thermal energy is destined to the cogenerator itself, i.e.

supplied to a third-party, it is considered that the cogeneration unit is operating in self-consumption

mode. The cogeneration installations that meet this criteria which are connected to the public

electricity network are required to pay a fixed monthly compensation amount for a period of 10

years following the award of the operating licence. That compensation amount is destined to meet

the share of costs of the general economic interest in the global use tariff of the system allocated to

cogeneration units with an installed electric capacity equal to or less than 20 MW according to their

proportion in the National Electricity System, calculated based on the electric capacity of the unit and

of the voltage level of the interconnection. That serves the purpose of funding the network

availability to meet the generation needs when the electricity generating groups are out of service.

The special remuneration scheme applies to cogeneration facilities with an installed electric capacity

of less than, or equal to 20 MW, which can also benefit from high-efficiency and renewable energy

premiums, depending on the savings of primary energy that occur and the source of primary energy

used. The category will be effective for a period of 120 months, as long as the conditions for its

award are maintained, with a possible extension of 60 months as long as there are savings of primary

energy and, if applicable, the requirements for the high-efficiency premium and renewable energy



109

premium are maintained. In these circumstances, the price of sale of energy supplied to the supplier

of last resort will result from a reference tariff plus the possible high-efficiency and renewable energy

premiums, for which the conditions are published and updated through specific ministerial

implementing orders.

Whenever the cogeneration unit has a total thermal output higher than 20 MW, the award of the

prior control licences for the cogeneration depends, amongst other things, from a favourable cost-

benefit analysis, carried out according to the terms of the decree-law. It also depends on the

estimated savings of primary energy, of the production of useful heat and of the global cogeneration

efficiency, calculated according to the provisions of the decree-law.

Cogeneration units using combustible fuels with an emissions coefficient equal to or smaller than

natural gas are given priority in the connection to the public service electricity network in the same

terms as the production of electricity from renewable sources, but without hindering access to the

network of electricity from renewable sources.

The above conditions therefore describe a set of specifications that differentiates the cogeneration

units by installed electric and thermal capacity and interconnection, with limits set at 20 MW. We

should highlight the very specific cost-benefit analyses that are required from all units with a capacity

exceeding 20 MW independently of their mode of input, and the bonuses awarded to smaller units

with electric capacity of less than 20 MW, justified by the savings in primary energy and by the

possibility of using renewable fuels. We should also mention that units operating in self-consumption

mode have a compulsory monthly payment for 10 years which is proportional to the interconnection

capacity and which relates to the general use item of the electricity rates system.

Since a good global performance should allow a cogeneration unit to achieve a competitive

production cost, as long as an adjustment is made in respect of the differences in the cost of

combustible fuels and of the equipment itself depending on the scale, the current incentives system

seems to attempt to balance this aspect by favouring smaller units, but without taking too much

responsibility away from them. However, given the recent publication of the decree-law mentioned,

the efficacy of this scheme in the promotion of high-efficiency cogeneration to realise the existing

potential can only be determined in the future, by monitoring the evolution of the system.



110

10 Conclusions and recommendations

The new cogeneration units that started operating during the 2008-2015 period were considered to

be of high-efficiency according to the legislation at the time, therefore fulfilling some of the potential

identified in 2008. However, a significant part of the high-efficiency cogeneration potential that was

identified was not fulfilled.

However, the legislation was altered in 2015 so as to promote the installation of small and medium-

sized units (suitable for the sectors with higher penetration in cogeneration) through a fixed and

subsidised rate according to the efficiency achieved and to the use of renewable fuels. It guaranteed

the purchase by the supplier of last resort of energy generated in units with an interconnection

capacity of less than 20 MW, but it opened the possibility to all units of establishing contracts directly

with consumers or to negotiate in the market. It should also be noted that there are compulsory

periodic evaluations with the aim of confirming the maintenance of the yields that justify the

bonuses.

In relation to the potential associated with heat and cooling supply networks, it was verified that

there is not a sufficient level of consumption to justify those networks at an exclusively residential

level because of the characteristics of the sector in Portugal, which has a small level of consumption

for space heating and even smaller for cooling, and where there is a very small degree of penetration

of centralised air-conditioning systems, which would increase costs even further in any process of

adaptation to a new infrastructure. In any case, the highest density of consumption is so much lower

than the minimum threshold proposed in the directive that, even considering the combination with

consumption in services buildings, it would not be easy to reach viable thresholds. These factors will

explain the fact that there is only one district heating and cooling network in Continental Portugal,

which was planned and built under very favourable conditions during the urbanisation phase of a

large area of high-value housing and a great number of large services buildings. In the Azores and

Madeira no system of this type was identified. Therefore, the promotion of these networks does not

appear to be an attractive option, being more adequate to enhance industrial cogeneration and the

policies for the improvement of the thermal envelope and for the use of renewable energies in

housing, mainly in the context of renewal works.

In 2014, the working cogeneration units totalled 1 759 MW of electric installed capacity and

4 631 MW of thermal capacity, having generated a total of 7.5 TWh of electricity and 19.2 TWh of

thermal energy, corresponding to a T/E ratio of 2.57. The working cogeneration units also had an

overall efficiency of 79 % and an average number of plant utilization hours of 4 255. The application

of assumptions and reference values associated with the directive, taking into account the

combustible fuels used in each unit and the network losses due to the location's voltage level, results

in expected global savings of 30 740 TJ of primary energy, corresponding to 33.5 % of savings.



111

The cogeneration potential that is thought to be attainable based on the 2014 situation would

represent 11 TWh to 13TWh of electric energy generation (29 % of national consumption) and

2.5 GW to 3.1 GW of installed capacity, representing therefore an increase of 0.7 GW to 1.3 GW of

electric power, maintaining the currently existing average production characteristics. However, the

evolution of this potential until 2024 is expected to follow a slightly negative trend, due to the

estimated reduction in consumption in the most influential sectors, namely the paper and pulp

sector, the textile sector, and even the consumption for air-conditioning in the services sector, with a

predicted attainable potential of 2.2 Mtoe to 2.7 Mtoe of thermal production from cogeneration, or

10 TWh to 12 TWh of electric power generation and 2.4 GW to 2.9 GW of installed capacity. It should

be noted that part of the uncertainly is associated with the viability of the facilities for the generation

of cooling in the services sector, which is often referred to as trigeneration, and in the systems to

install.

Since a good global performance should allow a cogeneration unit to achieve a competitive

production cost, as long as an adjustment is made in respect of the differences in the cost of

combustible fuels and of the equipment itself depending on the scale, the recently modified

incentives system seems to attempt to balance this aspect by favouring smaller units, but without

taking too much responsibility away from them in respect of the need to maintain a high yield

through an effective use of heat. However, given the recent publication of the decree creating this

scheme, its efficacy in the promotion of high-efficiency cogeneration to realise the existing potential

can only be determined in the future by monitoring the evolution of the system.

However, it is particularly important to adjust the analysis of the cogeneration cooling systems, or

trigeneration, to its particularities, being particularly important to define the method of calculation of

'useful heat', adapting the formula for the calculation of primary energy, ensuring that the heat used

at the entrance to the absorption chiller is not used as a thermal production value which, according

to the directive, would lead to the comparison with a production in a separate boiler, and not with

the correct comparison with the most efficient equipment for the exclusive generation of cold

available in the market for the same power range, therefore ensuring real savings in primary energy.

Moreover, a comparative analysis of these systems allowed us to reach the conclusion that those

savings will only occur if there is a reasonably significant direct use of the heat produced in

cogeneration, for example for space heating, heating sanitary waters or for another purpose useful

to the relevant economic activity.



112

With the new tendency for stagnation in the growth of cogeneration, evident in the fact that there

are almost no new licensing requests, the possibility of creating new incentive mechanisms (financial

or otherwise) for cogeneration in Portugal should be considered, namely by creating incentives to the

investment to help overcome the limitations resulting from the situation. It is also important to

develop cogeneration awareness programmes and to publicise successful case studies (namely from

other countries), in the sectors with higher potential.

Renewable cogeneration already plays an important role in some industries, such as in the sub-

sectors of paper and wood. Portugal has international commitments to progressively reduce CO2

emissions. As such, it is important to promote a significant increase of renewable cogeneration

through a greater use of forest and farming residues. The incentives could be extended for facilities

that replace fossil fuels with biomass; the growing use of the latter could stimulate the inland regions

and contribute to mitigate forest fires.



113

11 References

ADENE, 2015. Energy Efficiency trends and policies in Portugal. Energy Agency.

Aguiar, R., 2013. Climatologia e Anos Meteorológicos de Referência para o Sistema Nacional de Certificação de Edifícios (Climatology and Reference Meteorological Years for the National System for the Certification of Buildings).

Bertoldi, P., Hirl, B. & Labanca, N., 2012. Energy Efficiency Status Report 2012.

Capros, P., A. De Vita, N. Tasios, P. Siskos, M. Kannavou, A. Petropoulos, S. Evangelopoulou, et al.

2016. EU Reference Scenario 2016 - Energy, transport and GHG emissions Trends to 2050. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/eu -reference -scenario -20 16 -pbM J0 11 57 93/ .

Code2, 2014. Cogeneration Observatory and Dissemination Europe – D5.1 Cogeneration Roadmap non pilot Member State: Portugal; FAST- Federazione delle associazoni scientifiche e tecniche.

COGEN Europe – The European Association for the Promotion of Cogeneration

- http://www.cogeneurope.eu/

DGEG – Directorate-General for Energy and Geology - http://www.dgeg.pt/

EEP, INESCC, ISR, Protermia 2010. Estudo do Potencial de Cogeração de elevada eficiência em Portugal, Estudo realizado para DGEG, 2010.

INE, I., 2011. Censos 2011.

INE, I., 2014. Employment Statistics 2014.

INE, I., 2010. Fisheries Statistics 2010.

INE, I., 2015. Statistics on Construction and Housing 2015.

ICESD, 2010. 'Inquérito ao Consumo de Energia no Sector Doméstico 2010' (Survey on the Consumption of Energy in the Domestic Sector 2010). Lisbon, Portugal: Instituto Nacional de Estatística (National Statistical Institute)

Klotz, Eva-Maria, e et al. 2014. 'Potential analysis and cost-benefit analysis for cogeneration

applications (transposition of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive) and review of the Cogeneration Act in 2014'. Final report on project I C 4 - 42/13. Prognos AG Marco and Fraunhofer IFAM and IREES and BHKW-Consult.

Lapillonne, B., Pollier, K. and S., N., 2015. Energy Efficiency Trends for households in the EU.

http://www.odyssee-indicators.org/publications/PDF/Overall -Indicator-brochure.pdf

REN – Redes Energéticas Nacionais – www.ren.pt

Telmo Rocha, 2016. Cogeração | Tecnologias de Trigeração (6ª PARTE) (Cogeneration | Trigeneration Technologies (6th PART). Voltimum. http://www.voltimum.pt/artigos/artigos-tecnicos/cogeracao-tecnologias-de-trigeracao-6a- parte

http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/eu%20-

http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/eu%20-

http://www.cogeneurope.eu/

http://www.dgeg.pt/

http://www.odyssee-indicators.org/publications/PDF/Overall%20-Indicator-brochure.pdf

http://www.ren.pt/

http://www.voltimum.pt/artigos/artigos-tecnicos/cogeracao-tecnologias-de-trigeracao-6a-





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ANNEXES Annex I – Database user guide

This Excel tool was created to compile all the consumption data of the various sources of energy for the 2008-2014 period.

This collection of data allowed the carrying out of a reliable analysis of the data, which can be filtered according to the user's needs. This filtering can be done by geographic criteria, i.e. by district or municipality of Continental Portugal, Madeira and the Azores.

All the data can also be analysed by CAE and in various units of the International System (Toe, GWh, Ton, etc.) The database also allows to carrying out an analysis of the energy sources by municipality for the reference year (2014) on an individual basis.

This tool is made up of 30 sheets, the content of which will be explained below.

Summary – Contains the instructions for the use of the consolidated database.

Sources energy by CAE 2008-2014 – This sheet contains the consumption broken down by CAE and

by energy source between 2008 and 2014. In this sheet, the data can be filtered by year (2008-2014),

Economic Activity Code (CAE) and Activity Sector (Agriculture and Fisheries, Industry and Services).

The sheets included in the following list correspond to the various sources of energy, for which

consumption data was collected from the DGEG data. In these sheets it is possible to check the

individual consumption values of the respective energy source by municipality and by district.

• Electricity – Breakdown of the consumption of electricity by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• NG – Breakdown of the consumption of natural gas by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• LPG – Breakdown of the consumption of LPG (butane, propane and automotive LPG) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Fuel – Breakdown of the consumption of fuel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Diesel(s) – Breakdown of the consumption of diesel (automotive gas oil and dyed diesel) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Petrol – Breakdown of the consumption of petrol by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Biodiesel – Breakdown of the consumption of biodiesel by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Lubricants – Breakdown of the consumption of lubricants by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Asphalt – Breakdown of the consumption of asphalt by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Solvents – Breakdown of the consumption of solvents by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.



115

• Benzine – Breakdown of the consumption of benzine by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Paraffin – Breakdown of the consumption of paraffin by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Petroleum products (for illumination and as propellant) – Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum products (for illumination and as propellant) by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Naphtha – Breakdown of the consumption of chemical naphtha by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Petroleum coke – Breakdown of the consumption of petroleum coke by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

• Mat. Aromatic raw materials – Breakdown of the consumption of aromatic raw materials by CAE, municipality and activity sector for 2014.

Evolution by sector – This sheet shows the evolution of consumption by activity sector for the 2008-

2014 period.

Evolution of sub-sectors – Services – This sheet shows the evolution of consumption by sub-sector of

the services sector for the 2008-2014 period.

Evolution of sub-sectors – Industry– This sheet shows the evolution of consumption by sub-sector of

the industrial sector for the 2008-2014 period.

Agriculture and fisheries sector analysis – This sheet shows the analysis of the total consumption in

the agriculture and fisheries sector for 2014, with municipalities with a consumption of more than 20

GWh shown in green, as well as a graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity

consumption by district for 2014.

Industrial sector analysis – This sheet shows the analysis of the total consumption in the industrial

sector for 2014, with municipalities with a consumption of more than 20 GWh shown in green, as

well as a graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district

for 2014.

services sector analysis – This sheet shows the analysis of the total consumption in the services

sector for 2014, with municipalities with a consumption of more than 20 GWh shown in green, as

well as a graphical analysis of the total energy consumption and electricity consumption by district

for 2014.

Total – This sheet shows the total consumption values by municipality and activity sector in GWh and

TOE for 2014.

RE generation – This sheets shows the values supplied by the DGEG for the generation of renewable

energies and installed capacity for the 1995-2014 period.



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Consumption of coal 2014 – Shows the values supplied by the DGEG for the coal energy balance for

2014.

Location of cogeneration producers 2014 – This sheet shows a list with the location and CAE of the

cogeneration producers registered in Portugal in 2014. It also shows the evolution of the number of

cogeneration producers in Portugal for the 2008-2014 period.

List of CAEs – Shows a list of CAEs active in Portugal in 2014 according to data supplied by the DGEG.

Analysis of potential – This sheet shows an analysis of the CAEs with potential for cogeneration in

the various activity sectors in municipalities with a consumption of more than 20 GWh (total of

electricity and heat/cooling) in Portugal for 2014.



110

Annex II – Cost-benefit analysis tables

Table A2.18 - Case 1 - 5 kW engine (values per kW)

Self-consumption

Benefits No. of hours

Private Social

VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years) VAL – limits (EUR) IRR - limits Payback (Years)

Yes X No Yes X No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

- X X - X - -4 914.38 -4 241.93 - - - - -795.08 -2.04 -4 % 4 % - 11.13

- X X - - X -5 322.4 -4 565.89 - - - - -688.19 203.99 -3 % 6

- 9.9

- X - X X - -5 047.4 -4 498.3 - - - - -795.08 -2.04 -4 % 4 % - 11.13

- X - X - X -5 472.04 -4 854.3 - - - - -688.19 203.99 -3 % 6

- 9.9

X - - X X - -2 782.88 -2 233.78 - - - - -795.08 -2.04 -4 % 4 % - 11.13

X - - X - X -2 908.33 -2290.59 - - - - -688.19 203.99 -3 % 6

- 9.9


Self-consumption


Private Social


Yes No Yes No 4 000 4 500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

- X X - X - -2 230.28 -1 557.83 - - - - 143.94 936.98 7 % 19 % 9.25 4.8

- X X - - X -2 420.17 -1 663.66 - - - - 250.83 1 143.01 9 % 22 % 8.22 4.26

- X - X X - -2 363.3 -1 814.2 - - - - 143.94 936.98 7 % 19 % 9.25 4.8

- X - X - X -2 569.81 -1 952.07 - - - - 250.83 1 143.01 9 % 22 % 8.22 4.26

X - - X X - -98.78 450.32 5 16 % 11.28 5.77 143.94 936.98 7 % 19 % 9.25 4.8

X - - X - X -6.09 611.64 7 19 % 9.71 5.04 250.83 1 143.01 9 % 22 % 8.22 4.26



111


Self-consumption


Private Social



- X X - X - -911.18 -424.33 - -14 % - - 107.32 673.78 7 % 20 % 9.16 4.76

- X X - - X -962.14 -414.44 - -13 % - - 183.68 820.94 9 % 23 % 8.15 4.23

- X - X X - -1 044.20 -680.71 - - - - 107.32 673.78 7 % 20 % 9.16 4.76

- X - X - X -1 111.78 -702.86 - - - - 183.68 820.94 9 % 23 % 8.15 4.23

X - - X X - -240.58 122.91 -

10 % - 7.80 107.32 673.78 7 % 20 % 9.16 4.76

X - - X - X -191.59 217.34 1

13 % 14.19 6.72 183.68 820.94 9 % 23 % 8.15 4.23

Table A2.21 - Case 4 - 2 MW engine (values per kW)

Self-consumption


Private Social



- X X - X - 174.69 584.19 13 % 26 % 6.38 3.75 100.05 572.10 7 % 20 % 8.93 4.63

- X X - - X 247.65 708.34 16 % 29 % 5.67 3.33 163.68 694.73 9 % 23 % 7.94 4.12

- X - X X - 41.67 327.82 9

18 % 8.27 5.06 100.05 572.10 7 % 20 % 8.93 4.63

- X - X - X 98.00 419.92 11 % 21 % 7.35 4.49 163.68 694.73 9 % 23 % 7.94 4.12

X - - X X - 845.28 1 131.44 32 % 40 % 3.06 2.48 100.05 572.10 7 % 20 % 8.93 4.63

X - - X - X 1 018.20 1 340.12 37 % 46 % 2.68 2.18 163.68 694.73 9 % 23 % 7.94 4.12



112

Table A2.22 - Case 5 - 10 MW gas turbine (values per kW)

Self- consumption


Private Social



- X X - X - 168.91 681.45 11 % 20 % 8.14 4.78 71.60 692.46 5 % 16 % 12.05 6.08

- X X - - X 260.12 836.72 13 % 23 % 7.24 4.25 150.64 849.11 7 % 18 % 10.71 5.41

- X - X X - 11.68 369.82 7

15 % 10.38 6.38 71.60 692.46 5 % 16 % 12.05 6.08

- X - X - X 83.23 486.14 9

17 % 9.22 5.67 150.64 849.11 7 % 18 % 10.71 5.41

X - - X X - 967.47 1 325.61 25 % 31 % 4.06 3.26 71.60 692.46 5 % 16 % 12.05 6.08

X - - X - X 1 174.62 1577.53 28 % 35 % 3.56 2.87 150.64 849.11 7 % 18 % 10.71 5.41


Self-consumption


Private Social



- X X - X - 323.58 836.12 15 % 26 % 6.32 3.85 154.23 775.09 7 % 19 % 10.28 5.18

- X X - - X 423.79 1 000.39 17

29 % 5.62 3.43 233.27 931.74 9 % 21 % 9.13 4.61

- X - X X - 166.35 524.49 11 % 19 % 7.86 5.05 154.23 775.09 7 % 19 % 10.28 5.18

- X - X - X 246.90 649.81 13 % 22 % 6.99 4.49 233.27 931.74 9 % 21 % 9.13 4.61

X - - X X - 1 122.14 1 480.28 30

37 % 3.3 2.68 154.23 775.09 7 % 19 % 10.28 5.18

X - - X - X 1 338.30 1 741.21 35 % 43 % 2.89 2.35 233.27 931.74 9 % 21 % 9.13 4.61



113


Self-consumption


Private Social



- X X - X - 829.39 1 278.47 28

39 % 3.49 2.56 141.72 681.18 8 % 19 % 10.08 5.09

- X X - - X 984.02 1 489.23 32 % 44 % 3.10 2.28 210.39 817.28 9 % 22 % 8.96 4.52

- X - X X - 672.15 966.84 25

32 % 4 3.14 141.72 681.18 8 % 19 % 10.08 5.09

- X - X - X 807.13 1 138.66 28

36 % 3.56 2.79 210.39 817.28 9 % 22 % 8.96 4.52

X - - X X - 1 627.94 1 922.63 46

52 % 2.19 1.91 141.72 681.18 8 % 19 % 10.08 5.09

X - - X - X 1 898.52 2 230.05 52

60 % 1.93 1.68 210.39 817.28 9 % 22 % 8.96 4.52

Table A2.25 - Case 8 - 100 MW CCGT (values per kW)

Self-consumption


Private Social



X X X -22.41 262.60 6

15 % 11.22 6.4 135.94 662.98 8 % 19 % 10.15 8.12 X X X 24.89 345.52 8

17 % 9.97 5.62 203.03 795.96 9 % 22 % 9.02 4.55



114


Self-consumption


Private Social



- X X X - 51.73 372.36 9 18 % 9.31 5.31 229.87 822.80 10 % 23 % 8.42 4.25

- X X - X 4.43 289.44 7

16 % 10.47 5.97 162.78 689.82 8 % 20 % 9.47 4.78


Self-consumption


Private Social


Yes No Yes No 4 000 4500 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper

X X X 5.35 290.36 7

16 % 10.44 5.96 163.70 690.74 9 % 20 % 9.45 4.77 X X X 52.65 373.28 9

18 % 9.28 5.30 230.79 823.72 10 % 23 % 8.4 4.24

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