surface ozone trends in a changing climate camilla andersson, magnuz engardt & joakim langner

Surface ozone trends in a changing climate

Camilla Andersson, Magnuz Engardt & Joakim Langner

What will happen to surface ozone in the future?Climate change

Stability, BVOC, deposition, …Anthropogenic emission change in EuropeChange in inter-continental transport Change in stratospheric contribution Etc

Andersson, Engardt & Langner – future surface ozone in Europe

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Magnuz Engardt

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Previous publications with MATCH studyingwith the effect of climate change on air quality:

Langner, J., Bergström, R. and Foltescu, V. 2005. Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe. Atmos. Environ. 39, 1129-1141.

Hole, L. and Engardt, M. 2008. Climate change impact on atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Northwestern Europe: A model study. Ambio 37, 9-17.

Langner, J., Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2009. Atmospheric input of nitrogen to the Baltic Sea basin: present situation, variability due to meteorology and impact of climate change. Boreal Environ. Res. 14, 226-237.

Engardt, M., Bergström, R. and Andersson, C. 2009. Climate and emission changes contributing to changes in near-surface ozone in Europe over the coming decades: Results from model studies. Ambio 38, 452–458. DOI: 10.1579/0044-7447-38.8.452

Andersson, C. and Engardt, M. 2010. European ozone in a future climate: Importance of changes in dry deposition and isoprene emissions. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D02303. doi:10.1029/2008JD011690

Klingberg J., Engardt M., Uddling J., Karlsson P.E. and Pleijel H. 2010. Ozone risk for vegetation in the future climate of Europe based on stomatal ozone uptake calculations. Tellus, In press. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00465.x

New study – what is more important for future surface ozone Precursor emissions? Climate change? Boundary concentration?

Today’s talk Design of study

Model set up Evaluation Precursor emission projection Modelled results: timeseries and maps Conclusions

Modelling set up


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Dynamical downscaling

Global climate changeECHAM5

Regional climate changeRCA3 Regional CTM

MATCH

CO2 emission scenario: A1BCO2 emission scenario: A1B

Period 1961-2100Constant or varying• precursor emissions • boundary concentration

Andersson and Bergström - scarp 2.2

3-dimensional transport and chemistry model (MATCH)Boundary conc,

parameters etc.

3-dimensional meteorological fields Emissions

Land use

CTM: MATCHEulerian three dimensional chemistry transport model• ~60 chemical species• Transport (advection and mixing)• Natural emissions (sea salt, isoprene)• Deposition• Chemistry (photo-, wet-, thermal-, ~130 reactions in kpp)• Particle components: sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, ec, oc, (anthr) dust, sea salt

Input data• 3D met, every 3-6 hours• Emissions• Boundary and initial

concentrations• Deposition velocities• Etc…

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Magnuz Engardt

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What’s currently missing in MATCH? Vegetation affected by climate change Air Quality’s impact on climate Some PM emissions and dynamics not included in MATCH MATCH does not consider heavy metals, POPs, greenhouse gases, …

MATCH is a mass based modelwe are currently including more sophisticatedaerosol dynamic treatment of particles but this, updated, model is not included in this study

Dynamical downscaling of global climate model over Europe by RCA3 Input to MATCH every 6 hours (T, CC, QML, PREC, U, V, surface fields, …)

RCA3 (Samuelsson et al 2011, Kjellström et al 2011) Full description of atmosphere and interations with land surface Land surface model (Samuelsson et al 2006) Lake model, PROBE (Ljungemyr et al 1996) SST and SI conditions are prescibed (this set up)

Here: 0.44 km (rotated lat-lon) over Europé

4month spin up Transient calculation 1961-2100

Has been applied in numerous studieswith numerous GCMs as input

Climate data

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Scenarios (we are also using HADCM3-RCA3, not shown today)

Global (climate) model

Regional downscale climate model

CTM Boundary conc (CTM)

Precursor emissions

GHG emissions

Years

ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH constant Yr 2000 A1B 2000-2100

ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH constant RCP4.5 A1B 1961-2100

ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH 0.1 ppb(v) yr-1

RCP4.5 A1B 2000-2100

ECHAM5 RCA3 MATCH 0.2 ppb(v) yr-1

RCP4.5 A1B 1961-2100

ECHAM4 RCA3 MATCH constant Yr 2000 A2 1961-19902021-20502071-2100

ERA40 - MATCH constant Yr 2000 ”real” 1958-2001


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Manuscript will be submitted soon!Andersson and Engardt JGR 2010Engardt et al Ambio 2009Andersson and Langner WASP 2007Andersson et al Tellus B 2007

ENSEMBLES: RCA3

(Kjellström et al. 2011)ECHAM4-RCA3 (Kjellström et al 2005)

ECHAM5 (Roeckner et al 2006)ECHAM4 (Roeckner et al 1999)

ERA40 (Uppala et al 2005)

Evaluation ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH vs obs20 year climatology of near-surface ozone


Annual mean

AMJJAS mean

Annual daily max

AMJJAS daily max

Mean

Observations 30.8 36.4 41.5 49.6

ECHAM5 A1B3_cleo4.5_1 29.3 35.6 38.4 44.6

Bias % -4.7 -2.3 -7.5 -10.1

Spatial corr. 0.55 0.53 0.71 0.78

# stations 59 63 59 61

RCA3 evaluation 1961-1990: T2M and Precipitation


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Kjellström et al., 2011

DJF (winter) T2MJJA (summer) T2MPrecipitation

Deviations from obs- Warm bias in winter (NE)- Wet bias in summer (parts N)

RCP4.5 - by JGCRI RCP4.5 end of the century CO2 equiv is ~650 ppm(v)

RCP4.5

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Precursor emission scenarios - NOx


1850

2100

Precursor emission scenarios - NMVOC


1850

2100

Change in temperature and precipitation2071-2100 vs 1961-1990

ECHAM5-RCA3 CO2 : A1B


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Kjellström et al., 2011

DJF JJA DJF JJA

Change in amjjas avg surface ozone in Europe

ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH


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Impact of climate changeSignificant at 99% level2040s/2050s vs 2000s

Impact of climate change and RCP4.5 emissionsSignificant at 99% level2050s vs 2000s

Change in surface ozone in northern Europe

ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH


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Manuscript in preparation

Average AMJJAS• daily max • daily

average

Change in surface ozone in southern Europe

ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH


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Källström et al., 2009

Average AMJJAS• daily max • daily

average


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April-Sept h-max• Climate change

April-Sept avg• Climate change

• & Boundary (0.2 ppb yr-1) & prec emis

• & Boundary (0.2ppb yr-1)

& prec emis

April-Sept avg• Climate change

ECHAM4(A2-GHG)

April-Sept avg• Climate change ERA40

• & Prec emis

• & Prec emis

1960 2100

measurement

Model at meas sites

Change in surface ozone, southern EuropeAll scenarios (so far)

Conclusions

The effect of emission reductions in the RCP4.5 scenario on surface ozone has greater impact than climate change in the ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH scenario on European surface ozone due to climate change.

Interhemispheric transport has the potentail to become an important factor in the future, especially for average concentrations in northern Europe, but also for daily max concentrations.

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Future plans

Publish ECHAM5-RCA3-MATCH and HADCM3-RCA3-MATCH scenarios(manuscript is being compiled)

Use/include more scenarios in various studies: CLIMA-TRAP (EU-project)

Health impact assessment (manuscript is being compiled)

CLEO (Swedish EPA)Vegetation impacts in Sweden

SUDPLAN (EU-project)Downscaling impact of climate change (air pollution, temp, precipitaiton) over some European cities

IMPACT2C (EU-project)Impacts at a 2degree global temp increase

ECLAIRE (EU-project) Etc…

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Thank you for listening!

surface ozone trends in a changing climate camilla andersson, magnuz engardt & joakim langner

Documents

future climate of europe

impact of climate change

climate change impact

effect of climate change

climate changestability

future european surface

european ozone

ozone risk