survey of jordan public opinion - iri...2015/05/26 · survey of jordan public opinion february 25...
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International Republican Institute
Survey of Jordan Public OpinionFebruary 25 – March 1, 2015
Detailed Methodology
2
• This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by the Middle East Marketing and Research
Consultants on behalf of the International Republican Institute.
• The national representative survey was carried out from February 25-March 1, 2015. The eligibility
criteria was based on age (18 years of age or older). A sample of 1,000 individuals were interviewed
face-to-face in their homes.
• The sample design was a multi-stage cluster sample:
• Stage one: Break country into 100 clusters distributed among Jordan’s 12 governorates based on
the 2004 Housing and Population Census.
• Stage Two: Select 10 households from each cluster in a random fashion based on settlement
population while ensuring representation of different parts of the cluster in the sample. The
Nyman allocation approach, a sample allocation method used with fixed sample sizes to provide
accurate stratified samples, was used to distribute the sample of clusters among governorates.
• Ten households were drawn (with replacement allowing for non-contacts) from each cluster using a
random start and a systematic procedure of selection to ensure representation of different parts of the
cluster in sample and to reduce intra-class correlation.
• Researchers conducted one in-person interview per household, selected using the Kish method.
• The response rate for the survey was 96 percent.
• The margin of error for the survey does not exceed +/- 3.5 percent with a confidence level of 95
percent and where p=0.50.
• Figures in charts and graphs may not add to 100 percent due to rounding.
International Republican Institute
Country Headed in Right Direction, Split on Current Economic Situation
4
25%
39%
19%
8% 8%
0%
20%
40%
Things are goingmostly in the
right direction
Things are goingsomewhat in theright direction
Things are goingsomewhat in thewrong direction
Things are goingmostly in the
wrong direction
Not sure/Don’t know
Overall, is Jordan headed in the right direction or the
wrong direction?
What is your main reason for considering things in Jordan to be going in the right direction?
5
Open-ended; n=644
61%
7% 6%4% 4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Stability &security
Hashemiteleadership
Improvingeconomy
Improveddaily
conditions forcitizens
Political &economic
reform
Fightingcorruption
What is your main reason for considering things in Jordan to be going in the wrong direction?
6
Open-ended; n=271
23%
16%
12%
10%
7%
4%3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Rising prices Weak economicconditions
Administrative& financialcorruption
Refugee influx Poverty Wronggovernment
policies
Joininginternational
coalition
40%
21%
24%
34%
15%
19%
23%
16%
13%
20%
9%
15%14%
7% 8%
10%11%
20%
10%
17%
8%
13%
6%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
AUG 09 JUN 11 JUL 12 DEC 13 FEB 15
Rising cost of living Unemployment
Poverty Terrorism
Bad economic conditions Admin & financial corruption
Refugee influx
What, in your opinion, is the single biggest problem facing Jordan as a whole?
7
Open-ended
12%
Note: Approximately 64% of respondents cited
an economic issue as their biggest concern
What, in your opinion, is the single biggest problem facing Jordan as a whole?
8
Open-ended
40%
19%
9%
21%
23%
11%
15%
8%
24%
16%
20%
14%13%
34%
13% 13%
10%
7%6%
15%
20%
8%
17%
12%
7%
10%
0%
20%
40%
Rising cost ofliving
Unemployment Syrian refugeeinflux
Poor economicconditions
Poverty Corruption Terrorism
AUG 09 JUN 11 JUL 12 DEC 13 FEB 15
Why in your opinion is the current economy in Jordan in "Bad" or "Very bad" shape? Any other reasons?
9
n=590
0%
20%
40%
High prices Low incomes Unemployment Corruption Refugee influx Bad economicconditions
Poverty Other
33%
15%
13%10%
8%5%
11%
30%
11%
22%
7% 7% 6%8% 9%
2013 2015
How would you describe the current economic situation in Jordan?
10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very good Good Bad Very bad Not sure
9%
54%
22%
13%
2%
8%
55%
19%16%
2%4%
39%
24%29%
4%2%
32%35%
29%
1%3%
46%
33%
16%
2%
2009 2011 2012 2013 2015
Do you think that the general economic situation in Jordan over the next 12 months is likely to get much better, somewhat better,
much worse, somewhat worse, or stay the same?
11
0%
20%
40%
60%
Much better Somewhatbetter
Same Somewhatworse
Much worse Not sure
10%
38%
28%
15%
5% 4%
9%
48%
23%
10%
5% 5%6%
33%
29%
14%
10%7%
5%
35%
21% 22%
12%
6%4%
40%
31%
13%
5%8%
2009 2011 2012 2013 2015
How would you describe your household economic condition?
12
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Very good Good Bad Very bad Not sure/Don'tknow
5%
61%
24%
10%
1%5%
69%
20%
6%
2013 2015
Do you think your own household economic situation over the coming 12 months is likely to get much better, somewhat better,
somewhat worse, much worse, or stay the same?
13
6%
40%
12%
4% 5%5%
64%
15%
5%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Much better Somewhat better Somewhat worse Much worse Not sure
2013 2015
What is the most urgent problem facing Jordan today?
14
0%
20%
40%
60%
Corruption Economy Employment Education Democracy Other
45%
24%23%
4%1%
3%
What is the second most urgent problem facing Jordan today?
15
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Corruption Economy Employment Education Democracy Other
20%
31%
29%
8%
3%
9%
What is the third most urgent problem facing Jordan today?
16
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Corruption Economy Employment Education Infrastructure Human rights Democracy Other
18% 18%
30%
10%8%
5%
2%
9%
Which of the following price increases constituted the heaviest burden on your household budget?
17
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Car fuel Food Electricity Housing Education Health Mobile phones Transportation None Other
39%35%
17%
1% 1%2%
3%
15%
21%
28%
20%
7%
3%1%
3%2%
2013 2015
If prices had to be further increased by 10 percent, on which of the following would you most tolerate an increase?
18
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Clothes Mobile phones Food Housing Transportation Car fuel Electricity None Other Not sure/Don't know
15% 14%
8%
4% 4% 3% 3%
43%
5%
1%
In order to improve basic government services (health care, education, infrastructure, etc…), are you in favor of or against
levying new taxes?
19
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
In favor Against Not sure/Don't know
12%
87%
1%9%
90%
2%
2013 2015
International Republican Institute
Low Level of Public Confidence in Parliament, Majority Believe Citizens do not
have Say in Governmental Decision Making
What is the impact of a newly elected parliament on the political situation in Jordan?
21
0%
20%
40%
60%
Politicalsituation inJordan is
much better
Politicalsituation inJordan is
better
Politicalsituation in
Jordan is thesame
Politicalsituation inJordan is
worse
Politicalsituation inJordan is
much worse
Not sure/Don't know
3%
23%
46%
10%7%
11%
Overall, has the impact of the newly elected parliament moved Jordan in a better or worse direction?
22
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jordan isheading in
much betterdirection
Jordan isheading in
betterdirection
Jordan isheading in
worsedirection
Jordan isheading in
much worsedirection
Not sure/Don'tknow
5%
33%
28%
18%16%
Did the current parliament accomplish anything that you feel it should be commended for?
23
0%
50%
100%
Yes No Not sure/Don't know
5%
81%
14%16%
71%
14%
DEC 13 FEB 15
What is the biggest accomplishment of the new parliament so far?
24
Open-ended; n=156
0%
10%
20%
30%
Reducingpetrolprices
Demandingfreeze onprices ingeneral
Attentionto citizens'concerns
Demandingfreeze onelectricity
rates
Demandingimproved
basicservices
Issuance oflaws and
legislation
Notsure/Don't
know
20%18%
14%
12%
8% 7%6%
To what degree are you interested in Jordanian political reforms?
25
0%
20%
40%
60%
Large degree Moderate degree Little degree Not at all Not sure/Don'tknow
48%
27%
11% 10%
5%
Do you think that any of the following will improve political reforms in Jordan?
26
44%
32%
43%
38%
49%
39%
18%
19%
17%
Empowerment and development of politicalparties
Parliament in which you can elect only candidatesof political parties, their coalitions and/or groups
of citizens
Government that is elected by parliament
Not sure/Don't know No Yes
How effective are each of these branches of government?
27
36%
17%
33%
43%
42%
46%
9%
18%
10%
5%
16%
6%
6%
7%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Judicial Branch
Legislative Branch
Executive Branch
Very effective Quite effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not sure/Don't know
How much confidence do you have in each of the following institutions?
28
8%
12%
24%
32%
35%
40%
51%
84%
20%
31%
37%
46%
50%
39%
34%
11%
23%
21%
14%
12%
8%
13%
8%
2%
34%
32%
22%
7%
6%
6%
4%
1%
14%
4%
4%
2%
2%
3%
3%
1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Political parties
Parliament
Prime Minister
Schools anduniversities
Doctors andhospitals
Religiousinstitutions
Judiciary
Military
A great deal Quite a lot Some Very little Not sure/Don't know
How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections?
29
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhatunlikely
Very unlikely Not sure/Don'tknow
20%
27%
16%
28%
8%
International Republican Institute
Knowledge of and Involvement in Political Parties Low
Have you heard of any of the following political parties? If so, are you aware of the political ideas and or vision of this
party?
31
Party
Level of
Awareness (%)
DEC 13
Level of
Awareness (%)
FEB 15
Knowledge of Vision
FEB 15 (% Total
Sample)
Islamic Action Front (IAF) 60 55 5
Al Wasat Party 51 40 4
National Stream Party (National
Current Party)
25 18 3
Jordanian Communist Party 21 17 1
Justice and Development Party 21 13 1
Arab Ba’athist Socialist Party 20 17 2
National Constitutional Party 18 18 2
Freedom and Equality Party 17 13 1
Justice and Reform Party 18 11 2
Jordanian Unified Front Party 17 11 1
Jordanian National Youth Party 15 12 2
Al-Rafah Party 15 11 1
Jordanian Democratic People’s Party -
Hashd
12 14 1
Reform Party 12 9 1
Have you heard of any of the following political parties? If so, are you aware of the political ideas and or vision of this
party?
32
PartyLevel of Awareness
DEC 13 (%)
Level of Awareness
FEB 15 (%)
Knowledge of Vision
FEB 15 (% Total
Sample)
National Jordanian Party 11 11 1
National Jordanian Democratic
Party
10 6 1
Al-Resaleh Party 11 13 1
Ba'athist Arab Progressive Party 10 9 1
Jordan National Union 10 8 1
Jordan National Action Front
Party
10 9 1
Dua’a Party 9 10 1
Al Hayat Party 8 7 1
National Movement for Direct
Democracy
8 7 1
Jordan Reform & Renewal Party
-Hasad
7 5 1
Jordan Arab Party 5 6 1
Al Forsan Jordanian Party 4 6 1
Have you heard of any of the following political parties? If so, are you aware of the political ideas and or vision of this
party?
33
PartyLevel of Awareness
DEC 13 (%)
Level of Awareness
FEB 15 (%)
Knowledge of Vision
FEB 15 (% Total
Sample)
Democratic Popular Unity Party N/A 7 1
Jordan Stronger Party N/A 16 2
Jordan Equality Party N/A 7 1
Jordan Shahama Party N/A 4 1
Jordanian Social Justice Party N/A 6 1
Al Ansar Party N/A 3 *
Jordan Shoura Party N/A 6 1
Jordan Integrity Party ‘Al balad
Al Ameen’N/A 4 1
National Loyalty Party (Wafaa’) N/A 6 1
* Less than 0.5%
Are you a member of political party?
34
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yes No
1%
99%
Do you plan to join a political party in the next 12 months?
35
(n=992)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Yes No Not sure
2%
97%
1%
International Republican Institute
Support for More Women Candidates; More Focus on Youth Needed
Do you believe women should be equally represented in political decision making in Jordan?
37
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Not sure
27%
40%
20%
12%
2%
How likely are you to vote for a woman candidate?
38
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhatunlikely
Very unlikely Not sure
27%
35%
14%
20%
4%
Are politicians addressing the needs of women?
39
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Yes No Not Sure
38%
50%
12%
Are politicians addressing the needs of young people?
40
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Yes No Not sure/Don't know
26%
62%
11%
To what degree do you feel that you (citizens) have a say in governmental decision-making on issues that directly affect you?
41
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Large degree Moderate degree Little degree Not at all Not sure/Don'tknow
8%
35%
23%
30%
5%
International Republican Institute
Election Law
In the 2013 parliamentary elections, 61 lists competed for 27 national list seats out of 150 seats. These lists were composed of political party representatives and non-political party figures known at the national and local level.
Do you support increasing, decreasing, keeping thesame or abolishing the current number of seats set aside for lists?
43
0%
20%
40%
Increase Keep theSame
Decrease Abolish Not sure/Don'tknow
Refused toanswer
11%
23%
14%
29%
22%
1%
11%
30%
18%
25%
16%
1%
DEC 13 FEB 15
Do you think that the seats set aside for national lists should be limited only to political parties?
44
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
16%
62%
22%
1%
17%
61%
22%
DEC 13 FEB 15
Do you Agree or Disagree with the following statements?
45
10%
7%
7%
8%
54%
47%
43%
64%
35%
46%
50%
28%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
"I would rather vote for the particularindividuals within the lists formed by the
parties or groups of citizens"
"I would rather vote for candidates or lists thatmy tribe supports"
"I would rather vote only for a districtcandidate"
"I would rather vote only for lists of candidatesformed by the parties or groups of citizens"
Agree Disagree Not sure/Don't know
If parliamentary elections were to be held in 2015, to what degree do you believe that the Independent Election Commission would be able to
ensure fair and transparent elections?
46
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
To a large degree To a moderatedegree
To a little degree Not at all Not sure/Don'tknow
15%
41%
18% 19%
6%
International Republican Institute
Perceptions of ISIS
Do you consider the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS) to be a terrorist organization?
48
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Yes No Not sure/Don't know
89%
4%7%
To what degree do you feel ISIS is a real threat to security in Jordan?
49
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Large degree Moderatedegree
Little degree Not at all Notsure/Don't
know
Refused toanswer
37%
26%
16% 16%
5%
1%
To what degree do you support the international intervention against ISIS?
50
0%
20%
40%
60%
Large degree Moderatedegree
Little degree Not at all Notsure/Don't
know
Refused toanswer
54%
21%
4%
11% 10%
1%
What is your most important reason for this support?
51
Open-ended; n=748
0%
20%
40%
60%
Fight terrorism& eliminate ISIS
Safeguardregional
security &enhancestability
ISIS harmedIslam & its
image
The criminality& corruption of
ISIS
Avenge thekilling of pilot
Kasasbeh
Other No reason
58%
13%
17%
9%
2% 1% 1%
What is your most important reason for not supporting intervention?
52
Open-ended; n=147
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Fear of draggingJordan into warand instability
Conspiracytargeting
Muslims andIslam
Not ourwar/Jordan is
far from events
Spare Muslimsand other
innocent people
Other No reason Refused toanswer
36%
34%
14%
4%
8%
3% 3%
Do you actively support the involvement of Jordan in the international intervention against ISIS?
53
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Stronglysupport
Somewhatsupport
Somewhatagainst
Absolutelyagainst
Not sure/Don't know
Refused toanswer
47%
24%
6%
16%
6%
1%
Do you believe the ideology of ISIS has support among Jordanians?
54
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
26%
58%
16%
1%
What do you think could be the reason for potential support of the ideology of ISIS among Jordanians?
55
n=255
33% 37%42%
61%
67% 62% 54%
38%
1% 1% 4% 1%
Poor economicconditions
Religion Social injustice Expansion of theIslamic State
No Yes Not sure/Don't know
Do you think ISIS is mainly supported by youth, religious people, or poor people?
56
n=255
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Youth Religious people Poor people Not sure/Don't know
36%
30%
24%
11%
International Republican Institute
Sources of Information
What Jordanian source of information do you rely on most for news about politics and current events?
58
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
TV E-News sites Facebook Newspapers Radio Friends Family Other
69%
22%
4%1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
International Republican Institute
Syrian Refugee Influx
Do you approve of closing the borders to more Syrian refugees, continuing to receive Syrian refugees or continuing to receive
Syrian refugees but limiting the number?
60
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Closing the bordersin the face of more
Syrian refugees
Continuing toreceive Syrian
refugees but limitthe number
Continuing toreceive more ofSyrian refugees
Not sure/Don't know
46%
38%
13%
2%
Have each of the following been positively or negatively affected by the Syrian refugee influx?
61
36%
75%
76%
79%
92%
93%
40%
3%
3%
3%
1%
2%
17%
20%
20%
16%
6%
3%
8%
3%
2%
1%
1%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Views of the internationalcommunity toward Jordan
Quality of education in publicschools
Quality of municipal services(garbage collection in
particular)
Quality of health services inpublic clinics and hospitals
Job market for Jordanians
Real estate market (lease orpurchase prices) for
Jordanians
Negatively affected Positively affected Not affected Not sure/Don't know
Demographics
2%
2%
6%
6%
14%
31%
31%
10%
32%
36%
28%
4%
30%
24%
25%
21%
20%
80%
8%
64%
28%
50%
50%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Refused to Answer
Not sure/Don't know
1000+ JOD
800 - 999 JOD
600 - 799 JOD
400 - 599 JOD
200 - 399 JOD
Less than 200 JOD
Higher than secondary
Secondary
Less than secondary
Illiterate
45+
35-44
25-34
18-24
Rural
Urban
South (Karak, Tafileh, Ma'an, Aqaba)
Center (Amman, Zarqa, Balqa, Madaba)
North (Irbid, Jerash, Ajloun, Mafraq)
Female
Male
62
GENDER
LOCATION
POPULATION DENSITY
AGE GROUP
EDUCATION
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
(MONTHLY)
Demographics
18%
82%
41%
59%
4%
64%
14%
7%
8%
2%
83%
17%
71%
29%
62%
38%
4%
69%
27%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
No
Yes
No
Yes
Not sure/Don’t remember
More than 12 months
Less than 12 months
Less than six months
Less than three months
Less than one month
No
Yes
Private
Public
Not working
Working
Other
Married
Single
63
MARITAL STATUS
EMPLOYMENT STATUS
EMPLOYMENT SECTOR
(n=380)
TIME SPENT LOOKING FOR A JOB
(n=106)
LOOKING FOR A JOB
(n=620)
CHILDREN IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS
FAMILY MEMBER USING
GOVERNMENT HEALTH SERVICES