SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGES IN RENEWABLE ENERGY : BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

National Workshop on Solar Energy Utilization for Sustainable Development, CSIR-NEERI, Nagpur, November 23, 2015

DR. S. SIVARAM A 201, Polymers & Advanced Materials Laboratory, National Chemical Laboratory, Pune, 411 008, INDIA

Tel : 0091 20 2590 2614 Fax : 0091 20 2590 2615

Email : s.sivaram@ncl.res.in www.swaminathansivaram.in

THE THERMODYNAMICS OF HISTORY

• Human history reflects the creation of increasingly complex technological and social arrangements for capturing free energy

• Collapse sets in when entropy can no longer be offset and the energy returns per capita diminish

THE ENERGY GAP

• Half the world’s population subsists on agrarian or lower levels of energy access

• Their population density generally exceeds the carrying capacity of their environment

ENERGY TRILEMMA

Environmentally benign

Secure Reliable

Affordable Accessible

Energy Policy

ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS

Fossil fuel burning

Land use change

Cement production and Gas flaring

COMPARISON OF CO2 EMISSION SCENARIOS

02468

101214161820

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Em

issi

ons

GtC

/yr

IPCC IS92c Baseline “low-tech”

WEC Gradual Transition

Electric World

IPCC IS92a Reference “no-tech”

~ 800 ppmv (2.0-3.8°C)

~ 650 ppmv (1.7-3.2°C)

~ 550 ppmv (1.5-2.8°C)

~ 450 ppmv (1.2-2.3°C)

Even if we stop 80% of our fossil fuel emissions, the carbon dioxide emissons will not fall but only stop increasing

James Watt, 1763

Steam Engine, 1820

First Petroleum well, 1859

Nikolaus Otta, ICE, 1861

1879

Nicola Tesla, Turbine and AC,1893

Energy transition in society is

painfully slow !

Industrial Revolution

EMBEDDED ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE : DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING ITS FUTURE ARCHITECTURE

Technology Solutions

Infrastructure

ENERGY POLICY

Societal demands

Generation Storage Efficiency in use

Replacement cost Embedded infrastructure/ systems / capital Pricing, tariff, taxes and subsidies

Consumption pattern Cost to consumer Pay as you use Reliability Empowerment Environmental impact

Radical changes are possible only when technology and infrastructure gets locked in synergistic embrace

JP Morgan’s office in New York was electrified by Edison’s bulb

in 1882; However, electricity was made broadly available

only in 1930

2050 Goals The Electrified World

• > 2%/yr global productivity growth

• 30,000 cal/day equivalent per person

• 1,000 kWh/yr per person

• < 6 billion tons/yr of carbon emitted

INDIA’S FUEL-WISE GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Thermal Hydro Nuclear RES Total

10/19/2016 10

• Coal: good for base-load – significant domestic reserves

• proven reserves of 105 billion tonnes • could last 200 years at current production

level

• Natural gas share up from 4.4% to 10% in last 15 years – emit half as much CO2 per kWh as

compared to coal-based plants

• Hydroelectric potential of 600 billion kWh per annum – Capacity of 148.7 GW – only 23% realised so far – High initial costs and developmental

risks

• Nuclear: small

INDIA’S ENERGY INTENSITY IS LOW, EVEN AS IT RAMPS UP GENERATION

Consumption India World

Per-capita electricity (kg Oil Equivalent) 704 2752

Average energy (TOE) 0.53 1.82

10/19/2016 11

0 200 400 600 800

1000

Energy Generated (BU)

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

1992-93 1995-96 1998-99 2001-02 2004-05 2007-08 2009-10

Plant Load Factor (%)

ENERGY INTERCONVERSIONS

Light

Electricity

Mechanical energy Heat

Fuel

PV

LED Water splitting

Nuclear Reactor

Thermoelectrics

Heat Engine

Friction

Fuel cell

If you want to find out the secrets of the universe, think in terms of energy, frequency and vibration Nikolas Tesla

ENERGY FROM SUN

Frugal and

Parsimonious

“ I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait till oil and coal run out before we tackle that ”

-

Thomas Alva Edison (1847-1931)

SOLAR ENERGY UTILIZATION

Solar Energy in India

Solar Insolation : 300 days Average incident solar energy : 4-7 kWh per sq. meter = 1500-2000 sunshine hours per year Land area : solar power reception 5 petawatt hours per week = 600 Tw

SOLAR ENERGY SCENE IN INDIA

175 GW by 2020; 4 GW actual capacity in 2015 If achieved 25 % of total electricity capacity by 2020 Capital investment of $ 160 billion One of the top three markets in the world 500 mW project by Sun Edison at Ghani Solar Park, Kurnool, AP at Rs 4.63 per kWh ( Reverse Auction, 3 November 2015, Economic Times)

Is this price sustainable and economically viable ? How much is the hidden subsidy ?

IS SOLAR ENERGY SUSTAINABLE ?

Issues to be considered Optimal size; < 5 MW and > 50 MW not optimal; 25-50 MW appear optimum Land use pattern, evacuation and habitat loss (3.5 to 10 acres per MW) Plant load factor only 20 % of conventional power plant Grid Integration and disruption management costs not trivial; transmission costs 5x greater than conventional power How will solar power coexist with conventional power plants? Will we idle conventional power plants by the day and operate only at night? Business risks ( Financing, Ability of the SEB’s to pay, Forex risks ) Financial health of distribution companies Very poor understanding of both technology and business risks in India ; Foreign companies want to grow market share at unsustainable prices

WHY IS THE PRICE OF SOLAR PV POWER SO LOW ?

• Global PV power Capacity : 177 GW

• PV contributes today to 1 % of the total power capacity

• Solar silicon : 60 % capacity in China; Four of the five largest PV module suppliers are Chinese companies

• Current price : 60 cents / Wp

Price reductions due to unsustainable pricing or distress sale ?

HAS THERE BEEN TECHNOLOGY DISRUPTIONS IN SOLAR PV ?

• Is there an equivalent of a Moore’s Law in Solar PV ?

• Has there been significant new innovations by industry ?

• Solar cell prices fall 20% for every doubling of industry capacity

The Economist, 18 November 2012

Cost reductions not driven by advances in technology

IS SILICON PV GREEN ENERGY ?

Consider the following facts

Solar PV manufacturing processes involve converting quartz to metallurgical grade silicon and then to polysilicon ingots which are sliced to form wafers

Every ton of metallurgical grade silicon production results in 4 tons of silicon tetrachloride; Material utilization efficiency is a mere 30%

Solar cell fabricated with Siemen’s process needs 6 years of operation to recover the energy used to make it

1 ton of crude silicon production results in 10 t of carbon dioxide; Purification process results in additional 45 t of carbon dioxide

IS SILICON PV GREEN ENERGY ?

Consider the following facts

Silicon production uses sulfur hexafluoride, HF, 1,1,1 trichloroethane and large quantities of strong acids

Silver that is used for making panels at 5 % of current power demand will consume 50 % of current silver produced

Little or no recycling of silicon in process waste or end of life panels

Ironic that we consider silicon PV as a clean and sustainable form of energy !

SUSTAINABILITY METRICS FOR SOLAR PV

THE CHALLENGE OF SOLAR CELL FABRICATION

• 5 TW of solar power generation

• 250,000 sq km

• 25 sq km of cells per day

• 1 billion cells ( 15x15 cm) each day

15% efficiency

250 w/sq m

30 year replacement

The current method of fabrication of silicon wafers from ingots not very relevant for large scale deployment ; clearly, there is

a technology gap

SOLAR INSTALLATIONS CAN BECOME VIABLE IN DECENTRALIZED SOLAR INSTALLATIONS

• Solar water pumps • Roof top solar PV; 1000 sq ft : 400 units of power per month • Solar street lights and signages • Small gadgets directly powered by solar power

Dreaming Big: 50% India’s Electricity from Solar PV by 2030

Generate and consume locally ; shift capital investment to communities or individuals and away from state

Source: Margolis and Kammen

R&D as % of Net Sales by Industry, 1995

R&D INVESTMENT: TOO LOW !

Drugs/Medicine Prof/Science Instr. Comm. Equipment

Services Transp. Equipment

Industrial Chemicals

Stone/Clay/Glass Products Primary Metals

Energy

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

SUMMARY

The world is in the midst of unprecedented population growth made possible by mankind’s increased ability to utilize energy.

Broader access to energy is essential to resolving the world’s demographic “climate change”.

This will require the transformation of what still remains a “Paleolithic” global energy economy. The technology portfolio to enable this transformation is feasible but lacks the needed priority and resources.

Focus too much on supply side; Need to focus on demand side Three risks: Ability to prioritize and identify optimal solutions for India,

risk of solutions imposed on by technology providers, risk of Government and policy driven adoption of sub optimal technologies

Risk management : Geopolitical (oil), economic (renewable), psychological and perception (nuclear)

Need to articulate tangible value proposition to alls stakeholders

”In the end, more than they wanted freedom, they wanted security. They wanted a comfortable life, and they lost it all - security, comfort and freedom. When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free.” Edith Hamilton

THANK YOU