sustainable agricultural development in northern australia peter stone & brian keating csiro...
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainable agricultural development in Northern Australia
Peter Stone & Brian Keating
CSIRO Sustainable Agriculture Flagship
March 2010
Northern Australia is significant
Nation Industry
20%
2%
1%
Identity
15%
10%
5%
50%
15%
500%
Evolving views on the significance of NA...
1840
“…to let this fertile ground remain idle would be a mere waste…”
Evolving views on the significance of NA...
1880
“…this district has a great future before it to be derived from the raising of stock, cattle sheep and horses…”
Evolving views on the significance of NA...
1920
“The empty north is of immense strategic importance, and self-preservation demands that we devise means for introducing population into that vacant area.”
Evolving views on the significance of NA...
1960
“Australia could not justify retention of the North unless it exploited to the full its mineral resources and capacity for food production...failure would seem a national reproach...”
Evolving views on the significance of NA...
2000
“... is a place of extraordinary landscapes and wildlife and a rich and deeply spiritual Aboriginal culture...”
Sustainability combines these views
• Sustainability is not a point with a scientific optimum
• Sustainability is an evanescent socio-political space
bearable equitable
viable
S
The place of agriculture in northern Australia
• $1.2b• 6% GDP• 7% jobs• 90% area
dryl
and
irrig
ated
past
oral
The place of agriculture in northern Australia
• 50% of crop & improved pasture area
• 20% of the crop & improved pasture GVP
• further growth constrained by climatic risk
dryl
and
irrig
ated
past
oral
The place of agriculture in northern Australia
• $160m GVP; 34,000 ha; 225 GL
• 4x areal efficiency of dryland GVP
• 80% of value from 20% of land
• popular prospect for growth
dryl
and
irrig
ated
past
oral
The place of agriculture in northern Australia
• $1,200m; 110,000,000 ha; 9 million hd
• 90% area of northern Australia; 1/450th areal efficiency of irrigated GVP
• Benchmark productivity growth, 3.6% pa
• 4% of national GHG emissions
dryl
and
irrig
ated
past
oral
Limits to agricultural development. Soil?
suitable
marginal
unsuitable
Suitable soils (>16,000,000 ha) do not constrain agricultural development
Soil for irrigated crops
Limits to agricultural development. Water?
evapo-transpiration
stream flow
groundwater
• 1,000,000 GL of rain falls on NA each year, on average
• >90% of rainfall is received in <50% of the year
• high inter-annual variability
• water is fully used supporting existing uses
Water availability – evapo-transpiration
• 65% of rainfall evaporates
• evapo-transpiration rates are 50% higher than southern agricultural zone
• high ET reduces farm water use efficiency
evapo-transpiration
Water availability – stream flow
stream flow
• 20% of water enters streams, then the ocean
• stream flow sustains terrestrial, aquatic & marine habitats & industries
• stream flow is highly seasonally variable
• stream flow occurs mainly on coastal floodplains, making impoundment difficult
Water availability – groundwater
• 15% of water enters groundwater
• groundwater and stream flow are often closely linked
• most groundwater systems operate out of sync with agricultural use patterns
• annual “fill & spill” groundwater may supply 600 GL for new uses
groundwater
What can 600 GL achieve?
• 60,000 ha of irrigated agriculture
• 0.5% nation’s food calorie production
• highly dispersed irrigation enterprises
• commercial & infrastructure factors suggest opportunities for beef
Groundwater prospectivity
highmedium
low
negligible
Beef and water
• Increase volume and regularity of production
• Increase efficiency of capital & labour
• Reduce market risk exposure
• Reduce environmental footprint
Sustainable agricultural development opportunity
• Water and soil sufficient to sustain at least 60,000 ha of new, widely distributed, irrigation development
• Unresolved constraints– land tenure
– water ownership
– renewability vs sustainability of water extraction
• Potential solutions– water planning using National Water Initiative
Towards an exciting, sustainable future...
