THE 3RD BONUS SYMPOSIUM:

SUSTAINABLE ECOSYSTEM GOVERNANCE UNDER CHANGING CLIMATE AND LAND

USE in the BALTIC SEA REGION

GDANSK, 14-16 MARCH, 2018

Preliminary Program

Consortium of BONUS projects: MIRACLE, SOILS2SEA, BALTICAPP & GO4BALTIC

http://bonus2018.eu

Day 1: 14/3/2018 Day 2: 15/3/2018 Day 3: 16/3/2018 09:00 - 09:15 Welcome 09:00 - 09:50 KEYNOTE: Kasper Kok 09:00 - 09:50 KEYNOTE: Jim Smart 09:15 - 10:05 KEYNOTE: Lotta Andersson 09:50 - 10:00 BREAK 09:50 - 10:00 BREAK

10:05 - 10:45 Project Presentations: BONUS BALTICAPP BONUS SOILS2SEA

10:00 - 11:00 1. Impacts of chang-ing climate, policy and society on nutri-ent loading to the Baltic Sea I

2. Approaches for stakeholder dia-logues

10:00 - 11:00 9. Policy support for multiple eco-system services

10. Stream reme-diation measures

10:45 - 11:15 BREAK 11:00 - 11:25 BREAK 11:00 - 11:25 BREAK 11:15 - 12:05 KEYNOTE: James Shortle 11:25 - 12:45 3. Modelling nutri-

ent transport 4. Outlooks for marine environ-ments

11:25 - 12:25 11. Social learning for innovative gov-ernance

12. Spatially differ-entiated regulation 12:05 - 12:45 Project Presentations:

BONUS GO4BALTIC BONUS MIRACLE

12:45 - 13:30 LUNCH 12:45 - 13:45 LUNCH + Poster 12:25 - 13:25 LUNCH + Poster 13:30 - 14:45 Poster-Session 13:45 - 14:35 KEYNOTE: Wim de Vries 13:25 - 14:25 13. Local and re-

gional governance 14. Economic deci-sion support

14:45 - 15:35 KEYNOTE: Jon Winsten

15:35 - 16:00 BREAK 14:35 - 14:45 BREAK 14:25 - 14:40 BREAK 16:00 - 17:30 New insights on the Baltic

Sea Region - discussions on modelling, stakeholder views, social learning, eco-system services and poli-cies

14:45 - 15:45 5. Impacts of chang-ing climate, policy and society on nutri-ent loading to the Baltic Sea II

6. Evaluating agri-environmental policies

14:40 - 15:40 Summary and joint discussion: Next challenges and next steps.

15:45 - 16:15 BREAK Legend 16:15 - 17:15 7. Governance and

Innovation 8. Catchment nu-trient loading-scenario analysis

Plenary session

Coffee break, lunch, dinner Sessions in parallel tracks

18:30 - 20:00 Conference DINNER

Preliminary PROGRAM

Day 1: 14/3/2018

Chair: Karin Ton-derski

Welcome 09:00 – 09:15

Keynote

Chair: Karin Ton-derski

Lotta Andersson (Swedish Meteorological & Hydrological Institute, Sweden): Making the intangible manageable - is there a formula to merge research findings with local govern-ance focusing on climate change adaptation?

09:15 – 10:05

Chair: Berit Hasler Project Presentations: BONUS BALTICAPP & BONUS SOILS2SEA

10:05 – 10:45

BREAK 10:45 – 11:15

Keynote

Chair: Markku Ol-likainen

James Shortle (Penn State College of Agricultural Science, USA): Innovating Policy for Effective and Efficient Control of Nutrient Pollution: Challenges and Paths Forward.

11:15 – 12:05

Chair: Jens Chris-tian Refsgaard

Project Presentations: BONUS GO4BALTIC & BONUS MIRACLE

12:05 – 12:45

LUNCH 12:45 – 13:30

POSTER SESSION 13:30 – 14:45

Keynote

Chair: Karin Ton-derski

Jon Winsten (Winrock International, USA): Improving partic-ipation and the cost-effectiveness of agricultural pollution con-trol programs through the use of Pay-for-Performance Conser-vation.

14:45 – 15:35

BREAK 15:35 – 16:00

Discussion

Chair: to be decid-ed

New insights on the Baltic Sea Region - discussions on model-ling, stakeholder views, social learning, ecosystem services and policies

16:00 – 17:30

Conference DINNER 18:30 – 20:00

Day 2: 15/3/2018

Keynote

Chair: Kari Petri Hyytiäinen

Kasper Kok (Wageningen University, Netherlands): Inte-grated scenarios for land use, socio-economic and climate changes.

09:00 – 09:50

BREAK 09:50 – 10:00

Session 1

Impacts of changing cli-mate, policy and society on nutri-ent loading to the Baltic I

Chair: Katarina Elofsson

Using extended socio-economic scenarios to investigate driv-ers and pressures on the Baltic Sea up to 2100

Zandersen, M., Hyytiainen, K., Meier, H.E.M., Tomzcak, M., Bauer, B., Haapasaari, P., Olesen, J.E., Gustafsson, B., Kosenius, A.K., M., Refsgaard, J.C., Fridell, E., Pihlainen, S., Letissier, M.

10:00 – 11:00

Land use and land cover projections in the Baltic Sea Basin under different SSPs and future climate change

Jabloun, M., Olesen, J.E., Zandersen, M., Hyytiäinen, K.P., Smedberg, E.

Change in nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea Basin with changing climate, socioeconomic impacts, and agriculture practices

Bartosova, A., Donnelly, C., Strömqvist, J., Olesen, J.E., Jabloun, M., Capell, R., Arheimer, B.

Session 2

Approaches for stakeholder dia-logues

Chair: Kerstin Bly Joyce

Visualization supported dialogues in the Baltic Sea Region

Neset, T.-S.

10:00 – 11:00

Employing narratives and ethnographic studies to inform policy options for nutrient reductions

Martinez, G.

Constructing an open citizen science tool to collect information on the Baltic Sea and recreation. Proof of concept and future possibilities

Artell, J.

BREAK 11:00 – 11:25

Session 3

Modelling nutri-ent transport

Chair: Tomasz Walczykiewicz

Reactive nitrogen transport and cycling in a clay till hill slope field system

Jakobsen, R., Hansen, A. L., Hinsby, K., Postma, D., Refsgaard J. C.

11:25 – 12:45

Modelling impact of agricultural land use changes on nitrogen export from the Kocinka catchment

Bar-Michalczyk, D., Michalczyk, T., Kania, J., Børgensen, D.

How to increase utilization of nitrogen in manure - the Danish case

Blicher-Mathiesen, G., Andersen, H.E., Rasmussen, A., Rolighed, J., Carstensen, M.

Utilising data and studies within the Baltic Sea Basin to devel-op a map for nitrogen reduction in groundwater

Højberg A. L., Hansen A. L., Wachniew, P., Żurek A.J., Virta-nen, S., Arustiene, J., Strömqvist, J., Rankinen, K., Refsgaard, J. C.

Session 4

Outlooks for ma-rine environ-ments

Chair: Mikołaj Czajkowski

Impacts of “greening” on eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

Andersen, H. E., Hasler, B., Jansson, T.

11:25 – 12:45

Projections of Baltic Sea ecosystem state under changing cli-mate and society

Saraiva, S., Meier, M., Andersson, H., Höglund, A., Dieterich, C., Hordoir, R.

Analysis of possible regime-shifts in the Baltic Sea food web and its impacts on ecosystem services

Bauer, B., Bartolino, V., Casini, M., Hoff, A., Meier, M., Mar-goński, P., Müller-Karulis, B., Orio, A., Rahikainen, M., Saraiva, So., Warzocha, J., Kownacka, J., Steenbeek, J., Tomczak, M. T.

Contingent behavior and asymmetric preferences – Valuing recreational benefits of the Baltic Sea

Bertram, C., Ahtiainen, H., Meyerhoff, J., Pakalniete, K., Pouta, E., Rehdanz, K.

LUNCH & Poster Session 12:45 – 13:45

Keynote

Chair: Jens Chris-tian Refsgaard

Wim de Vries (Wageningen University, the Netherlands): Assessment of the needed increase in nitrogen use efficiency in European agricultural soils in view of water quality.

13:45 – 14:35

BREAK 14:35 – 14:45

Session 5

Impacts of changing clmate, policy and socie-ty on nutrient loading to the Baltic II

Chair: Jørgen E.

Translating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as long-run pro-jections of nutrient loads

Pihlainen, S., Hyytiäinen, K., Zandersen, M., Andersen, H. E., Jabloun, M., Smedberg, E., Gustafsson, B., Olesen, J. E., Bar-tosova, A.

14:45 – 15:45

Modelled source apportionment of nutrient loads to Baltic Sea basins under current and future conditions

Capell, R., Bartosova, A., Strömqvist, J.

Olesen Structural change in Northern European livestock production

Niskanen, O., Iho, A.

Session 6

Evaluating agri-environmental policies

Chair: Gerald Schwarz

Exploring farmers’ preferences for implementing agri-environmental schemes aimed at reducing nutrient leaching

Czajkowski, M., Elofsson, K., Hansen, L. B., Hasler, B., Helin, J., Häggmark, T., Konrad, M., Myyra, S., Nielsen, H. Ø., Niis-kanen, O., Noman, T., Pedersen, A. B., Petersen, K., Zagors-ka, K.

14:45 – 15:45

Agri-environmental policy development, farm technology out-comes and implications for greenhouse gas emissions in Den-mark

Frederiksen, P., Mikkelsen, M. H., Albrektsen, R.

Effectiveness of nitrogen abatement trading: Incorporation of results from a hypothetical market experiment into an agent based modelling framework

Hansen, L. B., Hasler, B., Termansen, M.

BREAK 15:45 – 16:15

Session 7

Governance and Innovation

Chair: Nico Stelljes

The Impact of Water Quality Policies on Innovation in Nitrogen and Phosphorus Technology in Sweden

Häggmark Svensson, T., Elofsson, K.

16:15 – 17:15

Governance approaches to wetland implementation

Graversgaard, M., Dalgaard, T., Tonderski, K.

Drivers of technology adoption at farm level in the Baltic region

Nielsen, H. Ø., Konrad, M., Pedersen, A. B.

Session 8

Catchment nutri-ent loading-scenario analysis

Chair: Hans E. Andersen

Nitrogen losses and loadings from two Baltic Sea catchments under scenarios of changes in land use, land management and climate

Olesen, J. E., Bar-Michalczyk, D., Bartosova, A., Børgesen, C. B., Hansen, A. L., Jabloun, M., Refsgaard, J. C., Wachniew, P.

16:15 – 17:15

Impact of future climate and land use changes on N-load and potential benefits of a spatially targeted regulation of agricul-ture

Hansen, A.L., Hashemi, F., Jabloun, M., Børgesen, C.D., Olesen, J.E., Refsgaard, J.C.

Scenario analyses of future nutrient emission from the Pregolia River catchment area to the Baltic Sea considering changes in climate, land use and agricultural practices

Chubarenko, B., Gorbunova, J., Domnin, D.

Day 3: 16/3/2018

Keynote

Chair: Berit Hasler

Jim Smart (Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia): Nitro-gen Trading – modelling principles from Australia’s Great Bar-rier Reef: parallels and contrasts with the Baltic

09:00 – 09:50

BREAK 09:50 – 10:00

Session 9

Policy support for multiple eco-system services

Chair: Antti Iho

A conceptual framework of an ecosystems services approach for improved policy integration

Schwarz, G., Zilans, A., Veidemane, K., Abolina, K.

10:00 – 11:00

Policy innovations to promote multiple ecosystem benefits: Lessons learnt from case studies in the MIRACLE project

Zilans, A., Schwarz, G., Veidemane, K., Osbeck, M., Ton-derski, A.

Cultural ecosystem services from the Baltic Sea

Pouta, E., Ahtiainen, H., Bertram, C., Liski, E., Soini, K., Mey-erhoff, J., Pakalniete, K., Rehdanz, K.

Session 10

Stream remedia-tion measures

Chair: Bo Gus-tafsson

Interactions between climate change impacts and nutrient miti-gation measures: Comparison of the Selke (Germany) and Berze (Latvia) catchments

Jomaa, S., Veinbergs, A., Yang. X., Lagzdins, A., Abramenko, K., Rode, M.

10:00 – 11:00

Design of stream remediation measures for nutrient retention and attenuation in the hyporheic zone

Morén, I., Wörman, A., Riml. J.

Scenario analysis for stream restoration actions aimed at re-ducing nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

Wörman, A., Riml. J., Capell, R., Morén I.

BREAK 11:00 – 11:25

Session 11

Social learning for innovative governance

Chair: Eija Pouta

A social learning perspective on water governance - experi-ences from Helge å, Sweden.

Osbeck, M., Capell, R., Carolus, J.F., Neset, T., Olsson, O., Pedersen, S., Powell, N., Tonderski, K., Wieslander, A.

11:25 – 12:25

Identifying mitigation measures for multiple benefits in the Re-da basin

Tonderski, A., Okrągła, E., Machnikowski, M., Burakowska, H., Tonderski, K.

Two dimensions of nitrate pollution management in an agricul-tural catchment

Wachniew, P., Martinez, G., Bar-Michalczyk, D., Kania, J., Malina, G., Michalczyk, T., Różański, K., Witczak, S., Zieba, D., Żurek, A. J., Berrini, A.

Session 12

Spatially differen-tiated regulation

Chair: Andis Zilans

Spatial model of dairy farm management, nutrient runoff and GHG emissions: Private and social optimum

Lötjönen, S., Temmes, E., Ollikainen, M.

11:25 – 12:25

Spatially differentiated regulation measures – can it save the Baltic Sea from excessive nutrient loads, and is it possible?

Refsgaard, J. C., Bartosova, A., Jakobsen, R., De Jonge, H., Olesen, J. E., Stelljes, N., Wachniew, P., Wörman, A.

Spatially differentiated regulation of nutrients – stakeholder perceptions in three different case study sites

Stelljes, N., McGlade, K.

LUNCH & Poster Session 12:25 – 13:25

Session 13

Local and re-gional govern-ance

Chair: Przemysław Wachniew

Reconciling stakeholder demand for water

Olsson, O., Osbeck, M., Pedersen, S. M., Powell, N., Schwarz, G., Tonderski, A., Tonderski, K., Zilans, A.

13:25 – 14:25

Possible land use scenario for the Reda catchment case study and its impact on water management and marine water

Walczykiewicz, T., Kwiecień, M., Woźniak, L.

The revealed preferences of Baltic Sea governments:Goals, policy instruments, and implementation of nutrient abatement measures

Elofsson, K., von Brömssen, C.

Session 14

Economic deci-sion support

Chair: Neil Powell

Improving the cost-effectiveness of water quality improvements through spatial scale changes to target-setting

Czajkowski M., Andersen H.E., Blicher-Mathiasen G., Elofsson K., Hasler B., Humborg C., Smart J., Smedberg E., Thodsen H., Wąs A., Wilamowski M., Wulff F., Żylicz T., Han-ley N.

13:25 – 14:25

Developing improved methods for identifying the cost-efficient abatement set in the Baltic Sea region

Helin, J.

Cost-Benefit Analyses in an interdisciplinary and case-specific context

Carolus, J. F., Olsen, S. B., Pedersen, S. M.

BREAK 14:25 –

14:40

Discussion

Chair: Gun Rudqvist

Summary and joint discussion: Next challenges and next steps.

14:40 – 15:40

POSTER SESSION

Title of poster Authors Economic benefits from reaching a good status of the Baltic Sea

Ahtiainen, H., Meyerhoff, J., Bertram, C., Pa-kalniete, K., Pouta, E., Rehdanz, K.

Patterns and trends in riverine water quality in the Baltic Sea basin: modeling nutrients with HYPE

Bartosova, A., Strömqvist, J., Capell, R., Donnel-ly, C., Arheimer, B.

Valuing recreational benefits with contingent and actual be-havior: An application to the Baltic Sea coast

Bertram, C., Ahtiainen, H., Meyerhoff, J., Pakal-niete, K., Pouta, E., Rehdanz, K.

Costs and impacts of nutrient mitigating, flood preventing and biodiversity promoting measures in four Baltic Sea countries

Carolus, J.F., Olsen, S.B., Pedersen, S.M.

Spatially-explicit model of the Baltic Sea based recreation demand – identifying recreational hotspots and the influence of environmental conditions

Czajkowski, M., Zandersen, M., Angelidis, I., Aslam, U., Becker, T., Budziński, W., Zagórska, K.

Scenario analysis of the Pregolya River discharge as response to changing climate conditions

Domnin, D., Chubarenko, B., Voropaev, R.

Effects of eutrophication and oligotrophication on benthic fauna in the coastal zone – a dynamic modelling study

Ehrnsten, E., Gustafsson, B., Timmermann, K., Norkko, A.

Assessment of nutrient concentrations and emission for the Pregolya River (South-Eastern Baltic) by monitoring data 2014 – 2016

Gorbunova, J., Domnin, D., Chuarenko, B.

Understanding shallow groundwater flow paths and drain flow dynamics and its effect on nitrate transport and reduc-tion in a Danish till area

Hansen, A.L., Jakobsen, R., Refsgaard, J.C., Højberg, A.L.

Effectiveness of nitrogen abatement trading: Incorporation of results from a hypothetical market experiment into an agent based modelling framework.

Hansen, L.B., Hasler, B., Termansen, M.

Improvement of groundwater N-reduction maps reduces un-certainty of the estimated N-loads to aquatic systems through spatially targeted measures on agricultural land

Hashemi, F., Olesen, J.E., Jabloun, M., Hansen, A.L.

The impacts of alternative nutrient policies on water supply-ing and abating companies

Hautakangas, S., Ollikainen, M.

Groundwater and stream threshold values as a tool for com-pliance testing of groundwater and surface water chemical status and protection of the Baltic Sea – general principles and examples

Hinsby, K., Refsgaard, J.C., Jakobsen, R., Han-sen, A.L., Olesen, J.E., Wachniew, P., Chubaren-ko, B., Wörman, A.

Impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy on eutrophication in the Baltic Sea

Jansson, T., Andersen, H.E., Hasler, B.

What was the nitrogen concentration in runoff water from Danish catchments to coastal waters around year 1900?

Jensen, P.N., Olesen, J.E., Kronvang, B., Windolf, J., Eriksen, J.

GHG marginal abatement cost curves for Finnish agriculture in the case of multiple pollutants and interrelations

Lötjönen, S., Ollikainen, M.

Modelling of nitrate contamination in fissured-porous karstic aquifer underlying Kocinka catchment using tracer-calibrated flow and transport model

Kania, J., Michalczyk, T., Witczak, S., Bar-Michalczyk, D., Rozanski, K., Dulinski, M., Najmann, J.

The making of the documentary film Soils2Sea: How narrative films complement scientific investigation.

Martinez, G., Berrini, A.

Interactive visualization for data exploration – The MIRACLE Tool

Neset, T.-S., Navarra, C., Wilk, J., Capell, R., Bar-tosova, A.

A study of the nitrate management discourse in Poland and a comparison with Denmark

Ptak, E.N.

Phosphorous retention in a remediated stream – evaluation of a tracer experiment with 15N, 32P and 3H

Riml, J., Morén, I., Wörman, A., Zięba, D., Wachniew, P.

Dynamic Phosphorus and Nitrogen Yield Response Model for Economic optimisation

Sihvonen, M., Hyytiäinen, K., Valkama, E., Turtola, E.

Questions for modelling on the local scale – case study area of Reda catchment

Walczykiewicz, T., Kwiecień, M., Woźniak, Ł.

Lagtime of pollutant transport through catchments: reducing nutrient loadings to the Baltic Sea

Żurek, A.J., Różański, K., Witczak, S.