Introduction to the Concept of Sustainable Manufacturing

Timothy G. GutowskiProfessor of Mechanical EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology

What is sustainability?

üGlobal extent

üInterconnected

üInterdisciplinary

Horseshoe Crabs for 400 M years

Sustainability Concepts

Industry example:The Triple Bottom line

üA Venn Diagram:üEquality among people, social justiceüEconomic development, viabilityüHealthy earth eco-systems

Sustainable Development

"...development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

UN, “Brundtland Report” 1987 Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtlandformer PM of Norway,

chairwomen of UN commission,“Our Common Future”

But what? economic systems? social systems?

healthy planetary eco-systems?

A Hierarchical View: Leave a Healthy Planet Behind

Planetary Boundaries

ü Climate regulationü Genetic diversityü Stratospheric ozoneü Ocean acidificationü Biogeochemical chemical flows (P, N)ü Land use changeü Freshwater use

Ref. Steffen et al Science 2015

Planetary Carbon Cycle (GtC)

Out of Balance

Ref. NASA

Global Temperature Rise

Consequences of Temperature Rise

üMelting glaciersüSea level riseüChanging weather patterns

üFloods, droughts, stormsü Impacts on plants, animals, insects,

disease, food supply, human healthüHuman migration

What do we have to do?

üStop adding carbon and other GHGs to the atmosphere

üSubstitute for carbonüCapture carbon üBecome more efficient

11

Working definition of Sustainable ManufacturingüSustainable Manufacturing supplies

useful goods and services to meet human needs in a manor consistent with the carrying capacity of earth’s ecosystems.

2 Manufacturing Carbon

Timothy G. GutowskiProfessor of Mechanical EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology

Carbon Accounting

üHow much carbon do we use?

üWho is using it?

üWhat is the limit?

üWhy is it going up?

Ashby, Materials & the Environment 2nd ed. 2013

How much Carbon do we use?

Anthropogenic Carbon & GHGs

Ref: Climate Change 2014: IPCC

~33Gt CO2~9GtC

landCH4

N2O

Who is emitting the carbon?

Personal & Commercial Transportation

Industry/Mfg

*approximate breakdown CO2 from fossil fuels & processesBy end use sector

Personal & Commercial

Buildings

Industry Buildings

Transportation

How we use carbon:fossil fuels in, and CO2 out

9GtC/yr33GtCO2/yr(9GtC/yr)

•Oil•Coal•Natural gas

Combustionwaste streamto the atmosphere

End use energy sectors

What is the limit?

Ref: Climate Change 2014: IPCC

Approx C in atm ~ 800GtFor max ∆T =2CºMax C in atm ~ 1,000 Gt1,000 Gt ~ 500 ppm CO2

IPCC Target with Growth

A IPCC target of 50% absolute reduction with growthOf 100% will require a 75% reduction

2000 2050

100%

200%

50% Goal

75% reduction

Why is it going up?

These are rough averages over the last 3 decades, data taken or calculated from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004and other sources…

IAEA = International Atomic Energy Agencyhttp://www.theenergycollective.com/sites/theenergycollective.com/files/imagepicker/305171/SharesofPrimaryEnergy.jpg

Ref:S.J. Davis & K. CaldeiraPNAS, 2010

Carbon embodied in Trade

Manufacturing Carbon

üCarbon and Growth dilemmaüDeveloping countries use carbon to

industrializeüAlternative development pathways

3 Carbon Reduction Strategies

Timothy G. GutowskiProfessor of Mechanical EngineeringMassachusetts Institute of Technology

Industry Buildings

Transportation

How we use carbon:fossil fuels in, and CO2 out

9GtC/yr33GtCO2/yr(9GtC/yr)

•Oil•Coal•Natural gas

Combustionwaste streamto the atmosphere

End use energy sectors

Industry Buildings

Transportation

Carbon Reduction Strategies

9GtC/yr33GtCO2/yr(9GtC/yr)

Substitutesfor fossilfuels: renewable electricity & fuels

Capture ofCO2 from waste stream &treatment

Increased efficiency& demand reduction

Industry Buildings

Transportation

Input & Output Solutions

9GtC/yr 32GtCO2/yr

•Wind•Solar•Geothermal

IntegratedSteel

CarbonCapture &Storage

Passivhaus

bicycles Fuel efficientvehicles

World Energy Use IPCCScalableRenewables

Fossilfuels

Buildings

Industry

Transport

Electricity

Energy Supply Challenges

üScale and Time

üElectrification

üEnergy storage

üTransmission & Land use

Industry Buildings

Transportation

End Use Solutions

9GtC/yr 32GtCO2/yr

•Wind•Solar•Geothermal

IntegratedSteel

CarbonCapture &Storage

Passivhaus

bicycles Fuel efficientvehicles

31

“My” Improvement Ratios

Mileage8:1

Integrated Steel Mill2:1

Heating8:1

End Use Challenges

üThermodynamicsüCostüBehaviorüSafetyüGrowth

Do everything at once…

57/14 = 44:1 improvement

needed

IEA Blue Map scenario

Sustainable Manufacturing?

üRequires absolute reductions

üNo silver bullet

üTechnology & Behavior

üAlternative development strategies

2.008xReferences1 IntroductionLecture slides © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

Globe image © StableClimate.org

Venn diagram © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

Photo of Dr. Brundtland © Technische Universität Wien

Earth eco systems schematic © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

Carbon cycle figure: Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science.

2 Carbon in Manufacturing

Lecture slides © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

Globe image © StableClimate.org

Global carbon production: Materials & the Environment 2nd ed. by Ashby. © 2013 Butterworth-Heinemann.

2.008xReferencesAnnual carbon emissions: Figure © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Carbon emissions by industry: diagram © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

Annual antgropogenic CO2 emissions; Figure © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Warming versus cumulative CO2 emissions: Figure © Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Energy generation over time Figure © 1998–2016 IAEA, All rights reserved.

CO2 emissions per region from fossil fuel use and cement production: Figure © European Union, 1995-2016

Carbon in trade, Figure from: PNAS Report 2010 by S.J. Davis & K. Caldeira. Copyright © 2016 National Academy of Sciences

3 Carbon Reduction Strategies

Lecture slides © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

2.008xReferencesGlobe image © StableClimate.org

Carbon emissions by industry: diagram © Timothy G. Gutowski. Used with permission.

Solar roof photo on Pexels.com. This work is in the public domain.

Volkswagen sports car image ©2016 Volkswagen AG

Photo of steel mill by Jesper Schoen on Wikimedia. (CC BY-SA) 3.0

Passiv Hhouse photo © 2016 National Institute of Building Sciences. All rights reserved.

Burying carbon deep in the earth: Figure © Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change

Bicycle Photo on Pexels.com. This work is in the public domain.

Climate change mitigation schematic: This work is partially based on the IEA 2006 report developed by the International Energy Agency, © OECD/IEA [2016] but the resulting work has been prepared by [Timothy Gutowski] and does not necessarily reflect the views of the International Energy Agency.

2.008xReferencesWind turbine photo on Pexels.com. This work is in the public domain.

Toyota Camry image ©2016 Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc

Residential house photo on Pexels.com. This work is in the public domain.

IEA Blue Map Scenario: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 © OECD/IEA, 2010, Figure ES.1, Page 47