variation and quality (2.008x lecture slides)

80
2.008x Variation and Quality MIT 2.008x Prof. John Hart Prof. Sanjay Sarma

Upload: a-john-hart

Post on 06-Jan-2017

1.510 views

Category:

Engineering


6 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and QualityMIT 2.008x

Prof. John HartProf. Sanjay Sarma

Page 2: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Page 3: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Quality: the relentless pursuit of perfection

Lexus, 1992: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AktHnnA9QIM

Page 4: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Quality

Variation

Tolerance

Page 5: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Quality: Conformity to requirements or specifications. In other words, the ability of a product or service to consistently meet customer needs.

Variation: A change in outcome of a process.

Tolerance: Permissible limit of variation of a process.

Page 6: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008xWhat are the measures of

Lego quality?

Drawing from Clipstone, C. J., Hahn, S., Sonnenberg, N., White, C., and Zhuk, A., 2004, “Razor blade technology.”Blade edge: https://scienceofsharp.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/astra_stainless_x_05.jpg

and for Gillette razors?

Page 7: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Car body measurement using a CMM (Nikon)

Excerpt from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5zXdSv60Ag

Page 8: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Car body build variation: production launch

Figure 4 from Ceglarek D, Shi J. "Dimensional Variation Reduction for Automotive Body Assembly." Manufacturing Review Vol. 8, No. 2, 1995:139-154.

2 mm body project: http://www.atp.nist.gov/eao/gcr-709.htm

6 standard deviations from the mean: 3.4 defects per million!

Page 9: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Car body assembly hierarchy

Figure 5 from Ceglarek D, Shi J. "Dimensional Variation Reduction for Automotive Body Assembly." Manufacturing Review Vol. 8, No. 2, 1995:139-154.

Page 10: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

What do we need to know?

§ What the customer wants (i.e. what is ‘good quality’) and how to relate this to our specifications.

§ How to quantify variation (statistically).

§ What causes process variation, and how to minimize variation as needed.

§ How to monitor variation and maintain process control.

Page 11: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Agenda: Variation and Quality

§ The normal distribution§ Error stackup and simple fits§ The lognormal distribution§ Process sensitivity§ Principles of measurement§ Statistical process control§ Conclusion

Page 12: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

2. The Normal Distribution

Page 13: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Measured variation: hex nuts

Mean = 5.58 mmStdev = 0.033

Freq

uenc

y

Hex nut thickness [mm]

Page 14: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Hex nut thickness: observations

§ What do we learn from the distribution of values?

§ Would the values be different if we measure freehand versus on the bolt? Why/not?

§ What is the meaning of the variation we measured?

Page 15: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

The normal distribution

Figure 36.3b, Kalpkjian and Schmid, Manufacturing Engineering and Technology

n→∞The histogram of x with n samples approaches the normal distribution as

Denoted by: mean (à shift): standard deviation (à flatness)

sometimes denoted s; e.g., 2s= 2 standard deviations

2

2( )21( )

2x

x x

x

f x e σ

πσ

−−

=

xxσ

x ∈ N x,σ x( )

σ x =1N

xi − x( )2

i=1

N

Page 16: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Normal probability density function (PDF)

f (x) = 12π s

⋅e−x−x( )2

2s2#

$

%%

&

'

((

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution (public domain)

Page 17: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Cumulative distribution function (CDF)

( )

⎥⎥

⎢⎢

⎡⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛ −− 2

2

2

21 s

xx

esπ

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution (public domain)

Page 18: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Probability: { }

{ } 1)(

)(

==∞≤≤∞−

=≤≤

∫∞

∞−

dxxfxP

dxxfbxaPb

a

Normalized to “Z-scores”

{ } ∫−

=≤≤

−=

2

1

2

221 2

1z

z

dzz

ezzzP

sxxz

π

b

z

P

x

f(x)

a

0

f (x) = 12π s

⋅e−x−x( )2

2s2#

$

%%

&

'

((

Page 19: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Z-scores

z = x − xs

Z 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08

-3 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0011 0.0010

-2.5 0.0062 0.0059 0.0055 0.0052 0.0049

-2 0.0228 0.0217 0.0207 0.0197 0.0188

-1.5 0.0668 0.0643 0.0618 0.0594 0.0571

-1 0.1587 0.1539 0.1492 0.1446 0.1401

-0.5 0.3085 0.3015 0.2946 0.2877 0.2810

0 0.5000 0.5080 0.5160 0.5239 0.5319

0 z

P

Page 20: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Z-scores

z = x − xs

0 z

P

Z 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08

0 0.5000 0.5080 0.5160 0.5239 0.5319

0.5 0.6915 0.6985 0.7054 0.7123 0.7190

1 0.8413 0.8461 0.8508 0.8554 0.8599

1.5 0.9332 0.9357 0.9382 0.9406 0.9429

2 0.9772 0.9783 0.9793 0.9803 0.9812

2.5 0.9938 0.9941 0.9945 0.9948 0.9951

3 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9989 0.9990

Page 21: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008xZ 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.090.0 0.5000 0.5040 0.5080 0.5120 0.5160 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5319 0.53590.1 0.5398 0.5438 0.5478 0.5517 0.5557 0.5596 0.5636 0.5675 0.5714 0.57530.2 0.5793 0.5832 0.5871 0.5910 0.5948 0.5987 0.6026 0.6064 0.6103 0.61410.3 0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6331 0.6368 0.6406 0.6443 0.6480 0.65170.4 0.6554 0.6591 0.6628 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6844 0.68790.5 0.6915 0.6950 0.6985 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7123 0.7157 0.7190 0.72240.6 0.7257 0.7291 0.7324 0.7357 0.7389 0.7422 0.7454 0.7486 0.7517 0.75490.7 0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7704 0.7734 0.7764 0.7794 0.7823 0.78520.8 0.7881 0.7910 0.7939 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8106 0.81330.9 0.8159 0.8186 0.8212 0.8238 0.8264 0.8289 0.8315 0.8340 0.8365 0.83891.0 0.8413 0.8438 0.8461 0.8485 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8577 0.8599 0.86211.1 0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8708 0.8729 0.8749 0.8770 0.8790 0.8810 0.88301.2 0.8849 0.8869 0.8888 0.8907 0.8925 0.8944 0.8962 0.8980 0.8997 0.90151.3 0.9032 0.9049 0.9066 0.9082 0.9099 0.9115 0.9131 0.9147 0.9162 0.91771.4 0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9251 0.9265 0.9279 0.9292 0.9306 0.93191.5 0.9332 0.9345 0.9357 0.9370 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9418 0.9429 0.94411.6 0.9452 0.9463 0.9474 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.95451.7 0.9554 0.9564 0.9573 0.9582 0.9591 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9625 0.96331.8 0.9641 0.9649 0.9656 0.9664 0.9671 0.9678 0.9686 0.9693 0.9699 0.97061.9 0.9713 0.9719 0.9726 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9756 0.9761 0.97672.0 0.9772 0.9778 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9808 0.9812 0.98172.1 0.9821 0.9826 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9854 0.98572.2 0.9861 0.9864 0.9868 0.9871 0.9875 0.9878 0.9881 0.9884 0.9887 0.98902.3 0.9893 0.9896 0.9898 0.9901 0.9904 0.9906 0.9909 0.9911 0.9913 0.99162.4 0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9925 0.9927 0.9929 0.9931 0.9932 0.9934 0.99362.5 0.9938 0.9940 0.9941 0.9943 0.9945 0.9946 0.9948 0.9949 0.9951 0.99522.6 0.9953 0.9955 0.9956 0.9957 0.9959 0.9960 0.9961 0.9962 0.9963 0.99642.7 0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9973 0.99742.8 0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9977 0.9977 0.9978 0.9979 0.9979 0.9980 0.99812.9 0.9981 0.9982 0.9982 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986 0.99863.0 0.9987 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990 0.9990

Page 22: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Example: manipulating the normal distributionCar tires have a lifetime that can be modeled using a normal distribution with a mean of 80,000 km and a standard deviation of 4,000 km.

à What fraction of tires can be expected to wear out within ±4,000 miles of the average?

Page 23: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Solution: how many wear out between 76,000 and 84,000 miles?

à Area under the curve between these pointsz(1) – z(-1) = 0.8413 – 0.1587 = 0.6826

= 68% will wear out

0.84130.1587

+1.00-1.00

0.6826

Page 24: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Example: manipulating the normal distributionCar tires have a lifetime that can be modeled using a normal distribution with a mean of 80,000 km and a standard deviation of 4,000 km.

à What fraction of tires can be expected to wear out within ±4,000 miles of the average?

à 68% will wear out

à What fraction of tires will wear out between 70,000 km and 90,000 km?

Page 25: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Solution: failures within 70,000-90,000 miles

à % of tires that will wear out = z(2.5) – z(-2.5) = 0.9938 – 0.0062 = .9876

à 98%

0.99380.0062

0 +2.5-2.5

0.9876

Page 26: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

3. Error stackup and simple fits

Page 27: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Measured variation: hex nutsSingle hex nut

Stack of two hex nuts

Mean = 5.58 mmStdev = 0.033

Mean = 11.15 mmStdev = 0.049

Stack thickness [mm]

Hex nut thickness [mm]

Page 28: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Modeling ‘stackup’: superposition of random variables

Proof: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sum_of_normally_distributed_random_variables

1 2y x x= ±

1 2y x x= ±

1 2

2 2y x xσ σ σ= +

( )σ,1 xNx ∈ ( )σ,yNy∈( )σ,2 xNx ∈

1 2 3 n

In general, if we define a new random variabley = c1x1 + c2x2 + c3x3 + c4x4 + …

• ci are constants • xi are independent random variables

It can be shown that: µy = c1µ1 + c2µ2 + c3µ3 + c4µ4 + ...

σy2 = c1

2σ12 + c22σ2

2 + c32σ3

2 + c42σ4

2

Page 29: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

What is the the probability of a successful assembly?

c = D− d

The new critical dimension is the clearance (c):

c = D− d

σ c = σ D2 +σ d

2

The distribution of clearances is defined by: DD t±

dd t±

Page 30: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

ANSI hole-shaft fit classification

Page 31: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

4. The lognormal distribution

Page 32: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Lognormal distributionà The logarithm of x is distributed normally

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution (public domain)

Probability density function (PDF)

Example: size distribution of particles in a powder, size distribution of grains within a metal

N (ln x;µ,σ ) = 1xσ 2π

e−(ln x−µ )2

2σ 2

µ = ln m1+ v /m2

!

"##

$

%&& σ = ln 1+ v /m2( )

m, v = mean and variance of raw data

Cumulative distribution function (CDF)

Page 33: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Lognormal distribution: metal powder for 3D printing

GE fuel nozzle: http://www.gereports.com/post/116402870270/the-faa-cleared-the-first-3d-printed-part-to-fly/SEM image: http://advancedpowders.com/our-plasma-atomized-powders/products/ti-6al-4v-titanium-alloy-powder/#15-45_m

Ti6Al4VSpecification: 15-45 um

Selective Laser Melting (SLM)

Page 34: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

5. Process sensitivity

Page 35: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

How hex nuts are made

Excerpt from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MR6q_nXH2IQ

Page 36: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

What can cause process variation?

§ The process: inherent capability; change of settings.

§ Material: raw material variation, defects.

§ Equipment: tool wear, equipment needs maintenance/calibration

§ Operator: procedure, fatigue, distraction, etc.

§ Environment: temperature, humidity, vibration, etc.

§ Measurement: Capability of measurement tool; change of performance (à calibration needed)

§ …

Page 37: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Climb milling (first cut) versus conventional milling (second cut)

6061-T6 Aluminum with ¼” endmill

Spindle Speed: 4000 rpmFeed: 20.0 in/minDepth of cut: 0.400”Width of cut: 0.070”

Page 38: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Example: climb versus conventional millingExpected width of material .610”

Conventional cut width (red): Top edge .609”, Bottom of cut .611”

Climb cut width (green): Top edge .612”, Bottom of cut .619”

Conventional§ Chip from thin à thick§ Lower forces but rougher

surface

Climb§ Chip from thick à thin§ Higher forces but

smoother surface

Page 39: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Heat

Force

Reference frame

The ‘structural loop’

The machine, tool, and workpiece are flexible

Tool

ErrorWork

Page 40: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Injection molding process window

à We also must understand the sensitivities to process variables within the window.

Page 41: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Injection molding: varying process parametersNote the mean shifts compared to the variation

40.60

40.65

40.70

40.75

40.80

40.85

40.90

40.95

41.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Wid

th o

f Par

t (m

m)

Number of Run

Run Chart for Injection Molded Part

Width (mm) Average

Holding Time = 5 sec Injection Press = 40%

Holding Time = 10 sec Injection Press = 40%

Holding Time = 5 sec Injection Press = 60%

Holding Time = 10 sec Injection Press = 60%

Part%radius%[mm]

Run%number

Hold = 5 secPressure = 40% of max

Hold = 5 secP = 40% max

Hold = 10 secP = 40% max

Hold = 5 secP = 60% max

Hold = 5 secP = 40% max

Page 42: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

à Systematic (“special cause”) variation: influences of process parameters or external disturbances that can be isolated and possibly predicted or removed.

à Random (“common cause”) variation: caused by uncontrollable factors that result in a steady but random distribution of output around the average of the data. In other words, this is the ‘noise’ of the system.

Page 43: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

A general model of process variation

ProcessInput (u) Output (Y)

Disturbances, such as:§ Equipment performance changes§ Material property changes§ Temperature fluctuations

Control inputs (process parameter settings)

SensitivityDisturbance (α)

ΔY = ∂Y∂α

Δα +∂Y∂u

Δu

Page 44: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Some example sensitivities (if all other parameters are held constant)

Injection molding§ Relationship between molecular weight of polymer

(determines viscosity) and accuracy (final part dimension compared to mold)

§ Relationship between injection pressure and accuracy

Machining§ Relationship between depth of cut and surface

roughness (= spatial frequency of tool marks)§ Relationship between tool life (sharpness) and accuracy

(= workpiece deformation via higher force and temperature rise)

Page 45: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

All together, this determines the amount of variation, and thus a reasonable tolerance that can be specified!

When the process is ‘under control’:

If tolerances are too tight:§ Extra cost (slower rate)§ More process steps (e.g.

finishing)§ Lots of scrap (rejects)§ Manufacturer “no quote”

(unreasonable expectations)

ΔY = ∂Y∂α

Δα +∂Y∂u

Δu

Figure 13.30 from Ashby, Material Selection in Mechanical Design

Page 46: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

6. Principles of measurement

Page 47: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

à Where must the Resolution be on this chart?

True (exact) value

Repeatability

Accuracy

Pro

babi

lity

dens

ity

Page 48: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008xAccuracy = “the ability to tell the truth”à Difference between the measured and true value

Repeatability = “the ability to tell the same story many times”à Difference between consecutive measurements intended to be identical

Resolution = “the ability to tell the difference”à Minimum increment that can be measured

A. Slocum, Precision Machine Design

Page 49: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

A. Slocum, Precision Machine Design

Page 50: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Mitutoyo high performance micrometer

§ A highly rigid frame and high-performance constant-force (7-9 N) mechanism enable more stable measurement* *Patent pending in Japan, the United States of America, the European Union, and China.

§ Body heat transferred to the instrument is reduced by a (removable) heat shield, minimizing the error caused by thermal expansion of the frame when performing handheld measurements.

http://ecatalog.mitutoyo.com/MDH-Micrometer-High-Accuracy-Sub-Micron-Digimatic-Micrometer-C1816.aspx

Range = 0-25 mm

Resolution = 0.0001 mm (0.1 micron)Accuracy = 0.0005 mm (0.1 micron)

Flatness: 0.3 micron (across ‘jaws’)Parallelism: 0.6 micron

Page 51: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Machine vision (Keyence)

Photos taken at IMTS 2014

Page 52: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Robot-mounted 3D scanner (Creaform)“70 micron accuracy over the “size of a pickup truck” à correcting for low robot accuracy by imaging dots on the sphere

At IMTS 2014

Page 53: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

At IMTS 2014

Page 54: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

At IMTS 2014

Page 55: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

7. Statistical Process Control

Page 56: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Monitoring a process: CONTROL CHARTSinvented by Walter A. Shewhart (Bell Labs, 1920’s)§ Needed to improve reliability of telephone transmission systems§ Stressed the need to eliminate all but “common cause” variation, and

minimize this variation

à “a process under surveillance by periodic sampling maintains a constant level of variability over time”

0.990

0.995

1.000

1.005

1.010

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Run number

Aver

age

(of 1

0 sa

mpl

es) D

iam

eter Upper control limit

Lower control limit

Step disturbance

66.3

%95

.5%

99.7

%

Page 57: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

OPERATION CHARACTERISTIC DATES

MACHINE SAMPLE SIZE SAMPLE FREQUENCY REMARKS

ACTIONINSTRUCTIONS

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

NOTES:

X

AV

ER

AG

ES

OR

IND

IVID

UA

LS

R

RA

NG

ES

/STD

. DE

V.

DATE OR TIME

IND

IVID

UA

LR

EA

DIN

GS 1

2345

SUMXRS

BASE PREDEPOSITION SHEET RESISTANCE 2/80 - 2/24, 1988

FCE #5 4 EVERY 5th LOT NOTE UNUSUAL OCCURANCES

40

35

30

25

20

15

15

10

5

2/8 2/8 2/9 2/9 2/10 2/10 2/11 2/11 2/11 2/12 2/12 2/15 2/16 2/16 2/17 2/17 2/18 2/18 2/19 2/22 2/22 2/23 2/24 2/242/932 28 31 32 34 33 30 33 35 39 37 33 34 29 32 30 34 33 29 30 29 28 30 292927 25 29 26 32 26 27 29 31 32 31 27 26 25 27 25 27 28 27 28 20 26 23 312227 29 27 25 29 25 25 31 26 30 35 28 30 22 24 22 25 26 27 26 22 25 25 262234 30 25 30 28 33 23 27 27 34 30 25 31 25 26 20 28 25 27 25 25 24 26 2527

120 112 112 113 123 117 105 120 119 135 133 113 121 101 109 97 114 112 110 109 96 103 104 11110030 28 28 28.3 30.8 29.3 26.3 30 29.8 33.8 33.3 28.3 30.3 25.3 27.3 24.3 28.5 28 27.5 27.3 24 25.8 26 27.8257 5 6 7 6 8 7 6 9 9 7 8 8 7 8 10 9 8 2 5 9 7 7 65

LOW ON SOURCE -MORE ADDED*

UCL X = 33.16

LCL X = 23.08

X

UCL R = 15.97

R

* *

Page 58: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

What might be going on here?à “a process under surveillance by periodic sampling maintains a constant level of variability over time”

UCL

CL

LCL0 10 20 30 40 50

57

60

63UCL

CL

LCL0 10 20 30 40 50

5.0

5.6

6.2

? ?

Page 59: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Basic types of control charts

Average chart: plot of mean values of each sample , centered around

the grand average (mean of all samples)

Range chart: plot of range of each sample (max - min), centered

around the average range.

à Why do we need both charts?

Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

Controlchartsareconstructedfrommeasurements ofsamples (eachwithnparts)fromthepopulation(N,allpartsmanufactured).

Page 60: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Reveals shift

Process mean is shifting upward

Does not reveal shift

When the mean shifts:

SamplingDistribution

x-Chart

R-chart

UCL

LCL

UCL

LCL

Page 61: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Does not reveal increase

Process variability is increasing

Reveals increase

When the mean shifts:

SamplingDistribution

x-Chart

R-chart

UCL

LCL

UCL

LCL

Page 62: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

How do we choose the sample size (n) and frequency of sampling?§ Likelihood of unexpected disturbances§ Importance (cost) of defects§ Cost of measurementàTypically based on experience and knowledge of the above

(sometimes trial and error)

How do we define the control limits (LCL, UCL)?§ Based on pre-tabulated statistics of sample variation versus

sample size

Page 63: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Calculating the control limitsAverage chartGrand average:

Control limits:

Range chartAverage range:

Control limits:

Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

LCL = X − A2R

UCL = X + A2R

LCL = D3R

UCL = D4R

R =Ri

i=1

N

∑N

X =X i

i=1

N

∑N

Page 64: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Factors for calculating control limitsà These constants are for a 3-sigma approach, i.e., control limits are placed at +/- 3 standard deviations from the estimated process mean

Table 36.2 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

AveragechartGrandaverage:

Controllimits:

RangechartAveragerange:

Controllimits:

LCL = X − A2R

UCL = X + A2R

LCL = D3R

UCL = D4R

R =Ri

i=1

N

∑N

X =X i

i=1

N

∑N

Page 65: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Process control vs. capabilityà Even if a process is in control (i.e., constant mean and variation), it may not be capable (i.e., giving what we want as set by the specifications a.k.a. the tolerances)

Upper control limit (UCL)

Lower control limit (LCL)

In Control and Capable(Variation from common cause reduced)

In Control but not Capable(Variation from common causes excessive)

Lower specification limit (LSL) Upper specification

limit (USL)

Page 66: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Control limits vs. tolerances (specification limits)

Control limits are:§ Based on process mean and variability.§ Dependent on the sampling parameters.à Thus, control limits are a characteristic of the process and measurement method.

Tolerances (specification limits) are:§ Based on functional considerations.§ Used to establish a part’s conformability to the design

intent.à Thus, we must have a formal method of comparison.

Page 67: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Process capability: compares process variation to tolerances

usewhicheverissmaller,becauseà

Cp =USL− LSL6σ x

Cpk =USL−µx3σ x

Cpk =µx − LSL3σ x

or

Generalrule:Cp shouldbeatleast1.33

LSL,USL=tolerancelimitsσx =processstdev

LSL USL

LSL USL

9.80 10.00 10.05 10.20 (mm)

DesignIntent

True process

Page 68: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

0.990

0.995

1.000

1.005

1.010

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Run number

Aver

age

(of 1

0 sa

mpl

es) D

iam

eter

Example: calculating Cp, Cpk

Assume:µx =1.000”σx =0.001”

Specification=0.999”+/- 0.005”

Upper control limit

Lower control limit

Step disturbance

66.3

%95

.5%

99.7

%

Page 69: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Page 70: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Recommended values of process capability

à How do we really judge what’s good enough? Knowledge of the ‘cost’ of defects in our product, thereby defining a ‘quality loss function’ (beyond scope today).

Recommendedprocesscapabilityfortwo-sidedspecifications

Defects(partsoutofspec) permillionoperations

Existing (stable)process 1.33 63

Newprocess 1.50 8

Existing process,safety-critical

1.50 8

Newprocess, safety-critical 1.67 1

Six-sigma quality 2.00 0.002

Page 71: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Variation and Quality:

8. Conclusion

Page 72: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

The big picture

‘Pilot’ production

This is a control chart

Design for Manufacturing (DFM)

$$

Does not conform

Conforms (good!)

Change design? Modify process (know what to do)

Page 73: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Embracing the variation: Apple

Excerpt from: https://youtu.be/7cIRpmgYBJw?t=274

Page 74: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Embracing the variation: Intel§ The speed of each processor made is

measured, and this sets the specification and price

§ As production improves, faster processors are released for sale

Image © Intel Corporation 2016 http://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/embedded/products/bay-trail/atom-processor-e3800-platform-brief.htmlhttp://ark.intel.com/compare/78416,80270,80269,80268

Product Name

Intel® Atom™ Processor Z3740D (2M Cache, up to

1.83 GHz)

Intel® Atom™ Processor Z3745 (2M Cache, up to

1.86 GHz)

Intel® Atom™ Processor Z3775D (2M Cache, up to

2.41 GHz)

Intel® Atom™ Processor Z3775 (2M Cache, up to

2.39 GHz)Performance# of Cores 4 4 4 4# of Threads 4 4 4 4Processor Base Frequency 1.33 GHz 1.33 GHz 1.49 GHz 1.46 GHz

Burst Frequency 1.83 GHz 1.86 GHz 2.41 GHz 2.39 GHzScenario Design Power (SDP) 2.2 W 2 W 2.2 W 2 W

Page 75: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

Reflection: learning objectives§ Recognize how process tolerances are defined and

variation is monitored, and how a manufacturing process is established to control variation.

§ Be fluent with manipulation of normally distributed dimensions, combinations of dimensions (e.g., to predict fits, lifetimes, etc.).

§ Understand how process physics influence statistical outcomes (e.g., mean, variation). What are the sensitive parameters, and how can the variation be addressed?

§ Understand accuracy, repeatability, resolution; assess the suitability of a measurement technique to monitor a process.

§ Know how to construct and interpret control charts and evaluate process capability.

Page 76: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

References1 Introduction

iPhone with a cracked screen, photo by User: Philipp Zurawski (Freetagger) - PixabayCC0. This work is in the public domain.

Lexus Commercial Video by Anthony Slanda on YouTube. © Lexus, a Division of Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., Inc

LEGO brick assembly, photo by User: M W (Efraimstochter) - Pixabay CC0. This work is in the public domain.

Gillette razor blade section, Figure 1 from "Razor blade technology US6684513 B1" by Clipstone, et al. (2004). This work is in the public domain.

Car body inspection using a Nikon coordinate measurement machine, video © 2016 Nikon Metrology, Inc.

Dimensional Variation Reduction for Automotive Body Assembly: Figure 4 by Ceglarekand Shi; Manufacturing Reivew 8 (2), June 1995, pp 139-154. (c) 1995 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Hierarchical groups for fault tracking: Figure 5 by Ceglarek and Shi; Manufacturing Reivew 8 (2), June 1995, pp 139-154. (c) 1995 American Society of Mechanical Engineers.

Page 77: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

References2 Normal Distribution

Normal distribution: Figure 36.3b in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

Normal probability distribution function, image by User: Inductiveload via wikimedia. This work is in the public domain.

Cumulative distribution function, Image by User: Inductiveload via wikimedia. This work is in the public domain.

Automobile tire, photo by User: Robert Balog (Bergadder) - Pixabay CC0. This work is in the public domain.

3 Variation Stackup

ANSI hole-shaft fit classification, image © International Organization for Standardization (ISO)

Page 78: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

References4 Lognormal Distribution

Log-normal probability distribution function, image by User: Krishnavedala via wikipedia -CC0. This work is in the public domain.

General Electric aircraft engine fuel nozzle, image © 2016 General Electric

Particle size distribution for Ti-6Al-4V powder stock of various size ranges from Advanced Powders and Coatings (APC), figure 5 from Title: Raymor AP&C: Leading the way with plasma atomised Ti spherical powders for MIM; Journal: Powder Injection MouldingInternational; Vol: 5; No: 4; December 2011; pages: 55-57. © Inovar Communications Ltd

5 Sensitivity

Hex nut production: "How It's Made" Video on YouTube Copyright © 2016 Discovery

Conventional vs. climb milling: Figure 24.3 in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

Page 79: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

ReferencesNormal distribution: Figure 36.3b in "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)" by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

Process tolerance charts: Figure 36.3b in "Materials Selection in Mechanical Design (4th Edition)" by Ashby, Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

6 Measurement

Accuracy, resolution and repeatability: Figure 2.1.1 in "Precision Machine Design" by Alexander H. Slocum; Publisher: Prentice Hall; Year: 1992; ISBN: 0136909183. (c) Prentice Hall 1992.

ESPN Monday Night Football, ESPN broadcast footage (c) Disney Corporation.

Digital micrometer, image Copyright © 2016 Mitutoyo America Corporation. All rights reserved.

Page 80: Variation and Quality (2.008x Lecture Slides)

2.008x

References7 SPC

Control charts of averages and ranges of sample measurements: Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

Control charts of averages and ranges of sample measurements: Figure 36.5 from "Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

Control limit equation constants as a function of sample size: Table 36.2 from"Manufacturing Engineering & Technology (7th Edition)," by Kalpakjian, Schmid. (c) Upper Saddle River; Pearson Publishing (2014).

8 Conclusion

iPhone 5 optical part matching for optimal fit, image (c) Apple Inc.

Intel Atom processor, image © Intel Corporation