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Sustainable Mobility A Global Imperative Sustainable Mobility A Global Imperative

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Page 1: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Sustainable Mobility

A Global Imperative

Sustainable Mobility

A Global Imperative

Page 2: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 3: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 4: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 5: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 6: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Why Fuel CellsWhy Fuel Cells

Page 7: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 8: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Hydrogen Addresses the Societal Drivers

HydrogenHydrogen

Petroleum Dependence Balance of Payments

Threat of Global Climate Change (CO2)

Local Air Quality

Page 9: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 10: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Wells to Wheels Analysis –Wells to Wheels Analysis – Key AssumptionsKey Assumptions

¶ Systems approach ¶ Assessment of energy consumption

and emissions ¶ Vehicle emissions targets

– Gasoline and diesel meet Tier 2 Bin 5 – Hydrogen fuel cell meets Tier 2 Bin 0 (ZEV)

¶ Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle – Compressed hydrogen stored onboard at 5000 psi – Hydrogen reformed from natural gas at central plant – Electricity to compress H2 from current U.S. mix:

– 54% coal, 15% natural gas, 18% nuclear, 13% other

Page 11: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

WWeellll ttoo WhWheeeellss EEnergynergy ConsumptionConsumption

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

WTW

Ene

rgy

Con

sum

ptio

n, B

TU/m

ile Tank to Wheel Well to Tank

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEVNH=non-hybrid HEV=hybrid electric vehicle Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FC

Page 12: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

vehicle

Well to Wheels G-H-G EmissionsWell to Wheels G-H-G Emissions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600 W

TW G

reen

hous

e G

ases

, g C

O2/

mile Tank to Wheel

Well to Tank

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen

NH=non-hybrid Fuel CellHEV=hybrid electric

Page 13: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Well to Wheels PetroleumWell to Wheels Petroleum

0

2000

4000

6000

8000 W

TW P

etro

leum

Con

sum

ptio

n, B

TU/m

ile

Tank to Wheel Well to Tank

ConsumptionConsumption

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FC

NH=non-hybrid HEV=hybrid electric vehicle

Page 14: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Estimation of Well-to-Tank Criteria Pollutants

••Data for relevant facilities extracted fromData for relevant facilities extracted from EPA’s 1999 National Emissions InventoryEPA’s 1999 National Emissions Inventory

••Total emissions divided by throughput toTotal emissions divided by throughput to develop emissions factorsdevelop emissions factors

••Distribution curve fit through existingDistribution curve fit through existing datadata

••Distribution adjusted to account forDistribution adjusted to account for improved future technology and newimproved future technology and new source controlssource controls

Page 15: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Well to Wheels VOCWell to Wheels VOC EmissionsEmissions 0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0 NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FC

Tank to Wheel Well to Tank

Preliminary Data -Final Results Subject to Revision

NH=non-hybrid HEV=hybrid electric vehicle

WTW

VO

C E

mis

sion

s, g

/mile

Page 16: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Well to Wheels SOxWell to Wheels SOx EEmissionsmissions

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

WTW

SO

x Em

issi

ons,

g/m

ile Tank to Wheel

Well to Tank

Preliminary Data -Final Results Subject to Revision

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV

NH=non-hybrid Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FC HEV=hybrid electric vehicle

Page 17: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Well to Wheels CO EmissionsWell to Wheels CO EmissionsW

TW C

O E

mis

sion

s, g

/mile

10

8

6

4

2

0

Tank to Wheel Well to Tank

Preliminary Data -Final Results Subject to Revision

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV

NH=non-hybrid Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FC HEV=hybrid electric vehicle

Page 18: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Well to Wheels NOx EmissionsWell to Wheels NOx Emissions

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

WTW

NO

x Em

issi

ons,

g/m

ile

Tank to Wheel Well to Tank

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV

Preliminary Data -Final Results Subject to Revision

Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FCNH=non-hybrid HEV=hybrid electric vehicle

Page 19: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Well to Wheels ParticulateWell to Wheels Particulate EmissionsEmissions

0.00

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

WTW

PM

10 E

mis

sion

s, g

/mile Tank to Wheel

Well to Tank

Preliminary Data -Final Results Subject to Revision

NH HEV NH HEV NH HEV

NH=non-hybrid Gasoline Diesel Hydrogen FC HEV=hybrid electric vehicle

Page 20: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 21: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 22: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 23: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 24: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Making Fuel Cell Vehicles a RealityMaking Fuel Cell Vehicles a Reality

Page 25: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 26: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Green

Fuel cell vehicles on track to become competitive in the market

Fuel cell vehicles on track to become competitive in the market

High confidence to achieve technology and costs goals to reach volume commercialization

Green

Green

Green

Vehicle Sub-system

Fuel cell stack

Power module sub-systems

Hydrogen storage • LH2

• CGH2

Traction

Vehicle integration

Status to Reach Development

YellowGreen

Page 27: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Key Commercialization Challenges

• Cost

• Hydrogen Storage

• Fueling Infrastructure

•Codes and Standards

•Supplier Development

Page 28: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Cost Reduction C

ost o

f fue

l cel

lpr

opul

sion

sys

tem

Today

Automotive target

Technology path

$50/kW

Focus on:

• Simplified fuel cell propulsion system architecture

• Lower cost materials

• Lower cost component designs

Significant cost reduction at volume

Page 29: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 30: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

What Should Hydrogen CostWhat Should Hydrogen Cost

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Fuel

Pric

e (U

S$)

Today’s gasoline price: approx. US$ 2.00 / gal.

Note:

• 1 Gallon gasoline = 1 Kg H2 fuel on energy-equivalent basis

• H2 / Fuel Cell vehicle is 2X more efficient versus today’s ICE vehicles

• Assumes H2 vehicle fuel is initially untaxed

H2 fuel target price of US $4 / kg

Page 31: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 32: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Bonfire Test Crash Tests

Assessment after Drop Test

Vibration Test Permeation Test

CH2 tank testing (EIHP testing/validation)

Safety of GM Fuel Cell Vehicles

Page 33: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path
Page 34: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

To start the transition to hydrogen, how much fueling infrastructure is needed?

Fuel

cel

l veh

icle

s / h

ydro

gen

sale

s

Once at the “tipping point”, market forces take over and both energy and automotive

sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of

their hurdle rates

Along the path towards a hydrogen economy, the key is to reach the

“Tipping Point”

Time

Page 35: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

“4 levers to pull” now to accelerate the time to reach the Inflection Point

fuel

cel

l veh

icle

s an

d hy

drog

en s

ales

Codes and standards

Advanced H2 storage

Financial support

Early customers

time

Page 36: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path

Our VisionOur Vision

•Fuel cells are the long-term power source •Hydrogen is the long-term fuel •Fuel cell vehicles price competitive by around 2010 •Stationary fuel cells pave the way for fuel cell vehicles •Infrastructure means appliances, not just pipelines.

Page 37: Sustainable Mobility - Global Imperativemarket forces take over and both energy and automotive sectors can achieve risk-adjusted returns in excess of their hurdle rates Along the path