swat | soil & water assessment tool - quantification of risks … · 2017-07-12 · fred f....
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Fred F. Hattermann
Fred Foko Hattermann1, Stefan Liersch1, Michel Wortmann1, Stephen Hardwick2, Kai Schröter3
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
2 Imperial College London, United Kingdom
3 German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Germany
Quantification of risks and costs of climate change impacts on floods and
droughts in the Danube basin
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Fred F. Hattermann
Number of major events 1980 – 2013 worldwideNumber
Geophysical event
Meteorological event
Hydrological event
Climatological event
© 2014 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
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Fred F. Hattermann
• Climate change impacts on theinsurance sector in Germany
• 2008-2011• Modelling of flood and storm
damages under different scenarioconditions
• Strong increase in projcted losses
Previous co-operations with insurance sector
Hattermann, F.F., Huang, S., Burghoff, O., Hoffmann, P., and Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2016) Brief Communication: An update of thearticle "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions – a case study for Germany", Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1617-1622, doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1617-2016. Hattermann, F. F., Huang, S., Burghoff, O., Willems, W., Österle, H., B�chner, M., Kundzewicz, Z. W. (2014): Modelling flooddamages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany. - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 14, 12, 3151-3168 (http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/14/3151/2014/nhess-14-3151-2014.html)
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Fred F. Hattermann
Why the Danube?
• 19 Countries and 83 million people, 4 capitals• 2002 floods in Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Moldova, Switzerland,
and Slovakia, causing total damages of 16,5 billion Euro (3,400 billion insured losses) and 39 fatalities
• 2013 floods in Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland, causing damages of 12,600 billion Euro (3,100 billion insured losses), and 25 fatalities (NatCatSERVICE, Munich RE)
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Fred F. Hattermann5
EU Climate-KIC funded• Open access cat-modelling driving adaptation to
enable resilience in an uncertain future• Set-up of the flood risk model for the Danube
started in 2016• Funding for the Danube until end of 2017
EU Horizon 2020 funded• Project duration Mai 2017 – April 2020• Multi-hazard and multi-risk• Strong cooperation with the OASIS consortium• OASIS LMF and Genillard & Co are partners• Several insurers committed their interest• Climate service call
Future Danube: Project background
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Fred F. Hattermann6
H2020 Insurance – project background
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Fred F. Hattermann
Future Danube: Model suite
Imperial College
PIK Potsdam
GFZ Potsdam
DTU Kopenhagen
PIK Potsdam
& Additional partners:• OASIS LMF• Genillard & Co• Pannon Pro• Budapest Water Works• Budapest Sewage Works• Insurance sector
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Fred F. Hattermann8
Modelling concept
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Fred F. Hattermann
Increasing robustness of riskinformation
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Uncertainty bounds (in blue) before and after -> decreasinguncertainty
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Fred F. Hattermann
Big data -> condensed information
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200,000 years of daily climate and hydrological data~13,0000 river sections ~200,000 spatial units
Robust risk information
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Fred F. Hattermann
Results weather module
11Stephen Hardwick, Imperial
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Fred F. Hattermann12
JJA precipitation for Upper Danube basin
X – 30 years of CORDEX data
X – 10,000 years of IMAGE data
Input: Realistic daily precipitation generated by weather module (many more events than observed -> rare (extreme) events)
The largest observedevent
These extreme eventswere never observed, but are possible and
cause the hugedamages
Stephen Hardwick, Imperial
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Fred F. Hattermann
Percolation
GW recharge Interflow
Surface
WetlandsGW flow
• Floods/ droughts• Water resources• Water management• Agriculture• Hydropower• Water quality
The weather information is fed into the hydrological module (SWIM)
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Fred F. Hattermann
River sections and subbasins upper part of theDanube until Budapest
Subbasins 13,778
Elements 186,296
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Fred F. Hattermann
Calibration and validation of SWIM usingobserved climate data
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Fred F. Hattermann
Results SWIM: Change in recurrence of 100 yearflood
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Fred F. Hattermann
Change in flood frequency under CC
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increase in frequency
increase in intensity(water levels)
These statistics are there for each of the ~13,0000 river sections
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Fred F. Hattermann
Change in flood frequency under CC
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Fred F. Hattermann
Agreement in projections
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Fred F. Hattermann
Average change in water availability
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High end scenario (RCP8.5) Moderate scenario (RCP4.5)
These statistics are there for each of the 13,0000 river sections
More droughtsin summer!
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Fred F. Hattermann
Spatial change in water resources
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Fred F. Hattermann
1D Channel / 2D Hinterland inundation model
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Hinterland
Channel
Floodplain Hinterland
dikedike
bankfull depth/bankfull flow
1D (diffusive wave: continuity, pressure, friction, slope)
River Network Routing:
1D Channel Network Model
2D shallow water equations (continuity, pressure, friction, slope, local acceleration, no advection)Explicit scheme, structured mesh 100m, GPU parallelisation
Hinterland Inundation:
2D Raster-Based Inertia Model
dike over-topping discharge
flood maps of max. water levels, duration, velocities
Kai Schröter, GFZ
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Fred F. Hattermann
Loss estimation
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Spatially detailed or aggregated risk assessmentT0: EUR 744 Mio T1: EUR 641 Mio T2: EUR 281 Mio
Kai Schröter, GFZ
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Many thanks!