SWFDP Eastern Africa- Cascading Forecast

ByRuben K. Barakiza

Institut Geographique du Burundi( IGEBU)Meteorological Department

P.O.BOX 331BUJUMBURA

BURUNDIEmail: barakiza_r@yahoo.co.uk

• Objective • The provision of timely and effective information

– through identified institutions– that allows individuals exposed to a hazard to take

adequate actions to avoid or reduce their risk and prepare for effective response

Extreme weather events • Currently, the SWFD focuses on the following

weather extreme events: • Heavy rains • Strong winds associated with thunderstorms• Dry spells• Ocean/lake waves

• Target users• Department of Disaster Management and

Public Safety Authority• General public,• Various socio-economic institutions impacted by

weather/climate

The Cascading Forecasting Process• In the framework of the general organization of the Global

Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS), the SWFDP implies a co-ordinated functioning among three types of GDPFS centres.

• These are: Global NWP Centres to provide available NWP products,

including in the form of probabilities; Regional Centres to interpret information received from the

global NWP centres, run limited-area models to refine products, liaise with the participating NMCs; The NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise and collaborate with Media, and Disaster Management

and CivilPprotection Authorities; and to contribute to the evaluation of the project.

Cascading FCST ( cont’d)The first phase of this project commenced October 2011 and focused on:• heavy rain,• strong winds, • sea/lake waves, and• prolonged dry spells. The participating Services and Centres in the SWFDP Eastern Africa

include:• NMHSs: Kenya, Burundi, Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda• Regional Centres: RSMC, KMD - Nairobi, RSMC, TMA - Dar es

Salaam; and• Global Products Centres: • European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast( ECMWF)• Exeter (Met Office UK), • Washington (NOAA/NCEP ), and• DWD (Germany)

NWP Product Analysis • Analysis of national observational data• Regional Productsfrom the RSMC-Nairobi Extreme weather guidance Risk table Cosmos model products Lake Victoria project• Internatinal Centres ECMWF Determistic forecasts and EPS Rainfall model products• NOAA NWP products, including: 10-day precipitation forecasts, wind flow forecast, Atmospheric Instability indices• Uk Metoffice products• EUMETSAT Products: satellite imagery, vertical atmosphere

sounding

CURREWNT STATUS OF OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK IN BURUNDI

The current status of meteorological observational network in Burundi is as follows:

• 2 synoptic stations operating 24 hours per day. • 13 main climatological stations• 125 rainfall stations• 43 hydrometric stations at main rivers such as

Ruvubu, Rusizi and Malagarazi rivers from where hydrological measurements are carried out and data collected.

• 5 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS)• EUMETSAT AMESD-PUMA satellite data station

National Meteorological Observational Network in Burundi

ECMWF Deterministic Forecast for Bujumbura, 01/04/2013

ECMWF 6-hour Rainfall Model Forecast over Burundi on 01/04/2013 ( 06UTC-12UTC)

NOAA 10-day Precipitation Forecast, 18-25 May 2013

NOAA/GFS 850hpa Temperature, Relative humidity and Streamlines

NOAA/GFSPrecipitable water, and Convective Available

Potential Energy(CAPE) on 18/05/2013 00h

CAPE• Convective available potential energy(CAPE),is the

amount of energy a parcel of air would have if lifted a certain distance vertically through the atmosphere.

• CAPE is effectively the positive buoyancy of an air parcel and is an indicator of atmospheric instability,

• It is very valuable in predicting severe weather.

CAPE Values Potential Weather

1000 - 3000 J kg-1 Deep Convection

5000 - 7000 J kg-1 Maximum Values- (extreme atm. instability)

OUNTRY HEAVY RAIN STRONG WINDS LARGE WAVES

RISK RISK RISK

No Low Med High No Low Med High No Low Med High

BURUNDI X X X

KENYA C,S,W&NE

X E

RWANDA X X X

TANZANIA N,E, C & SW

Off SE Coast

E

UGANDA S X X

ETHIOPIA S X X

RSMC-NAIROBI RISK TABLE - Day 1: Monday 1st April, 2013

RSMC-NAIROBI Risk Table-Day 2: Tuesday 2nd April, 2013

COUNTRY HEAVY RAIN STRONG WINDS LARGE WAVES

RISK RISK RISK

No Low Med High No Low Med High No Low Med High

BURUNDI X X X

KENYA C&W X E

RWANDA X X X

TANZANIA N&C Off SE Coast

E

UGANDA X X X

ETHIOPIA S X X

EUMETSAT, 2013-04-01 IR image at 1200UTC

Case study: Example of 16 April, 2013• Risk table: Low risk of Rainfall>50mm/24h• Guidance forecast from RSMC-Nairobi showed

that much of the country expected rainfall> 50mm/24h

• On 15 April, 2013: A warning for heavy rains was issued.

• What happened on the ground• In the Eastern parts of Burundi, in Ruyigi

Province, Muriza weather station recorded 108.6mm/24h on 16/04/2013 .

COUNTRY HEAVY RAIN STRONG WINDS LARGE WAVES

RISK RISK RISK

No Low Medium

High No Low Medium High No Low Medium

High

BURUNDI W X X

KENYA W&C Coast Coast E

RWANDA W X X

TANZANIA Off E Coast

Off SE Coast

E

UGANDA X X X

ETHIOPIA SW X X

RISK TABLE Day 1: Monday 15th April, 2013Issue Monday 15th April, 2013

RISK TABLE DAY 2: Tuesday 16th April, 2013

COUNTRY HEAVY RAIN STRONG WINDS LARGE WAVES

RISK RISK RISK

No Low Medium High No Low Medium High No Low Medium

High

BURUNDI X X X

KENYA SW Coast Coast E

RWANDA X X X

TANZANIA N&W Off E Coast

Off SE Coast E

UGANDA X X X

ETHIOPIA SW X X

Guidance Forecast for Tuesday 16th April, 2013

2013 April 16th , 24h-Total rainfall over Burundi

Information Dissemination and communication

• The Burundi NMHS dissemites and weather information to the socio-economic sectors and to the general public through various

facilities such as:• National Radio broadcating• Telephone • Internet-emails• Gaps: Lack of television presentation, Lack of MOU with Newspapers Lack of allocated budget for providing weather

information ( for instance, newspapers)

Relationship with disaster management and civil protection authorities and media

A networking and viable communication links exist between Burundi NMHS and the Disaster Management and Civil Protection Office.

The National Platform for disaster Management has a representative from the Burundi NMHS

UNDP-funded workshops focusing on Disaster prevention and preparedness have been organized aimed at capacity building of DMCPA, Media, NMHS and other concerned institutions.

Media have been important means for disseminating information on extreme weather events.

Challenges• Most extreme weather events such as hail, strong

winds, etc. are associated with small scale thunderstorms, sometimes not materialized by global models.

• Inadequate feedback from user community • Low level of awareness and disaster preparedness

in the general public leading to low coping capacity.

• THE END

• THANK YOU FOR LISTENNING !!!