Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project

(SWFDP)

Severe Weather Forecasting

Demonstration Project (SWFDP)WMO

Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.”

(World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011)

Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)WMO

SWFDP Main GoalsImprove Severe Weather ForecastingImprove lead-time of WarningsImprove interaction of NMHSs with users: media, disaster

management, civil protection authorities, public

SWFDP Regional SubprojectsSouthern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La

Réunion)Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC

Wellington, RSMC Fiji)Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) Southeast Asia (in development, 4 countries)Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries)

SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process

– Global NWP centres to provide available NWP and EPS products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame;

– Regional centres to interpret information received from global NWP centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs;

– NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with Disaster Management, media, and to provide feedback and evaluation of the project;

– NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

4

Global Centers Disaster Management

Centres

NMCsRSMC Pretoria

5

SWFDP – Southern Africa•16 countries, RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Réunion, •Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF

RSMC Pretoria Webportal

Since 2006

• RSMC analysis forecast information

• Guidance every day for the next 5 days

• Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather

• Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs

• Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

SWFDP Guidance SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Products from RSMC

PretoriaPretoria

SWFDP Southwest Pacific- 9 Island States, RSMC Wellington, RSMC Nadi

- ECMWF, Met Office UK, NWS/USA, ABoM

RSMC WellingtonSince 2009

SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress)WMO

Focus on: Strong winds Heavy precipitation Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) Dry spells

Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries Domains:

5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria)

Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia Started September 2011

SWFDP – Eastern Africa6 countries, RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar-es-Salaam,

Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF, DWD

RSMCNairobi Since 2011

RFSC Dar-es-Salaam since 2011

SWFDP-Eastern Africa Guidance from RSMC Nairobiand Regional Centre Dar-es-Salaam

Proposed SWFDP – Southeast AsiaWMO

SWFDP – Southeast Asia status/progressProject develop in progress (draft Implementation Plan available at:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/CBS-Reports/documents/Report_SWFDP-SeA_IP_Sep2010.pdf)

Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell)

Domain: 10°S, 40°N, 80°E and 140°E Global Centres: CMA, JMA and KMA (NWP guidance material, satellite products)Regional Centres: Viet Nam (Regional Forecast Support), RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), and HKO (training and technical support)NMCs: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet NamStart-up awaiting establishment of RFSC Ha Noi (2013?)

SWFDP – Bay of Bengal Focus: Coastal communities and activities

• Bangladesh• India • Maldives• Myanmar• Sri Lanka • Thailand• Bhutan (later)• Nepal (later)• Afghanistan (later)• Pakistan (later)

Severe Weather from TCs,severe thunderstorms and monsoon: Heavy precipitation, Strong windsLarge waves / swell, Storm Surge

Improved severe weather forecasting (GDPFS), warning services to disaster management (PWS) and with agriculture (AgMet)

40E – 125 E 50 N – 10 S

SWFDP links and synergies

Reg

ion

al C

entr

e

Glo

bal

Cen

tres

RS

MC

s-T

C

Global NWP/EPS andSat-based products

TC

GuidanceProducts

(risk/probability)

GDPFS

Nat

ion

al M

et C

entr

es(F

ore

ca

st

D /

D+

5;

Bu

lle

tin

s)

SMS; Weather RadioSystems; Public Web; etc.

PWS

Dis

ast

er

Man

ag

emen

t an

d C

ivil

P

rote

ctio

n

Specific Communication Systems

Med

ia

E-mail; etc. Radio; TV

Flash Flood Guidance HWR

Dis

ast

er

Man

ag

emen

t an

d C

ivil

P

rote

ctio

n

Specific Communication Systems

Gen

eral

Pu

bli

c

WW

RP

Research Projects

Satellite Imagery and Tools

WM

O S

P

Gen

eral

Pu

bli

c an

d s

pec

. u

sers

(A

gri

cult

ure

, F

ish

erie

s,

Mar

ine

Saf

ety

, A

via

tio

n,

etc.

)

Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized

ApplicationsAgM, MMO, AeM, etc.

Specific Comm. Systems

SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings

• Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds, forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time)

• Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS), • High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore

damaging waves, landslides); • Increase synergy with Tropical Cyclone Programme• Forecast Verification (guidance, forecasts, warnings)• Managed phase-in other developments (“cascade” to applications,

promising R&D outputs) • Training for forecasters, and disaster managers

• Technological gaps: – Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events – Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) – Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations – Internet-based

SWFDP – improving warning services

• A severe weather warnings programme at every NMHSs supported by the World Weather Watch System

• Warning services gaps: – Relations with disaster management, civil protection, media

– Warning criteria, SoP, reach, quality assurance

– Inadequate monitoring, no objective verification

– No severe weather warnings programme

Looking AheadLooking Ahead

• Continuous Development Phase “Phase 4”

• Establishing SWFDP Project Office, and Trust Fund at WMO

• National SWFDP Implementation Plans for least capacity countries

• Maintaining Project-critical components (Training, warning services)

• Consider new projects: 8-10 regional projects, up to 100 WMO Members, including many LDCs

• Revitalizing GDPFS and its RSMCs

Ultimate Goal:

Establishing a National Severe Weather Warnings Programme for every Member of WMO

SWFDP - Improving severe weather forecasting

and warning services

Thank you!

DPFS: Peter Chen Alice Soares

PWS: Haleh Kootval

Sam Muchemi AgMet:

Robert StefanskiJose Camacho

“Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns.” Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters –The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)