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System Management Principles Statement Compliance report Summary of balancing actions and breaches Performance compared to last year

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Page 1: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

System Management Principles Statement

� Compliance report

� Summary of balancing actions and breaches

� Performance compared to last year

Page 2: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

2

Summary Report

00Number of Non-Material Breaches

00Number of Material Breaches

Nov-13Oct-13

3637Total

1423Total Number of Sell Actions

2214Total Number of Buy Actions

Nov-13Oct-13

0

0

360

Nov-12

0Number of Non-Material Breaches

(Calendar year to date)

0Number of Material Breaches

(Calendar year to date)

366Number of Balancing Actions

(Calendar year to date)

Nov-13

Page 3: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

Transporter Actions and Neutrality

� Energy Balancing

� Capacity

Page 4: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

4

Transporter Energy Traded on the OCMNovember 2012 to November 2013

-362434052012

-315026672013 [YTD]

Sell [GWh]Buy [GWh]Year

National Grid Monthly Buys and Sells

Nov 2012 to Nov 2013 vs 2011/12

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13

Month

GW

h

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Buy 2012/13 Buy 2011/12 Sell 2012/13 Sell 2011/12

Page 5: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

5

Days of Default SMP PricesFrom December 2012 to November 2013

63%67%70%Nov 13

BothSMPSSMPBMonth

SMPB Calculation Summary

Dec 2012 to Nov 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100D

ec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-13

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

%ag

e

SMPB [NG Set Price] SMPB [Default Marginal]

SMPS Calculation Summary

Dec 2012 to Nov 2013

0102030405060708090

100

Dec-1

2

Jan-1

3

Feb-1

3

Mar-

13

Apr-

13

May-1

3

Jun-1

3

Jul-13

Aug-1

3

Sep-1

3

Oct-

13

Nov-1

3

%ag

e

SMPS [NG Set Price] SMPS [Default Marginal]

Page 6: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

6

Energy Balancing – Balancing Costs Sept - Oct 2013

£542,789

Payments / Charges / Net Credit / Debit [Imbalance /

Scheduling / OCM] - 1st Sept to 31st Oct 2013

28,415,853

683,325

34,402,119

9,653,051

11,171,107

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Credits Debits

Imbalance Scheduling OCM

Net Debit £3,784,885

Page 7: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

7

Energy Balancing – Balancing CostsSep - Oct 2013

OCM Payments / Charges Graph

1st Sept 2013 to 31st Oct 2013

-2,000,000

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

01/0

9/2

01

3

08/0

9/2

01

3

15/0

9/2

01

3

22/0

9/2

01

3

29/0

9/2

01

3

06/1

0/2

01

3

13/1

0/2

01

3

20/1

0/2

01

3

27/1

0/2

01

3

Day

£

Payment [TTB]

Charge £ [TTS]Imbalance Payments / Charges Graph

1st Sept 2013 to 31st Oct 2013

-2,500,000

-2,000,000

-1,500,000

-1,000,000

-500,000

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

01

/09/2

013

08

/09/2

013

15

/09/2

013

22

/09/2

013

29

/09/2

013

06

/10/2

013

13

/10/2

013

20

/10/2

013

27

/10/2

013

Day

£

Payment £ [DCS]

Charge £ [DCT]

Scheduling Charges Graph

1st Sept 2013 to 31st Oct 2013

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

01/0

9/2

013

08/0

9/2

013

15/0

9/2

013

22/0

9/2

013

29/0

9/2

013

06/1

0/2

013

13/1

0/2

013

20/1

0/2

013

27/1

0/2

013

Day

£

Exit Charge £ [EXS]Entry Charge £ [ESC]Exit Charge £ [DXS]

Page 8: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

8

Capacity NeutralityNet Cost / Revenue From 1st April 2013 to 31st October 2013

-£510,402Net Revenue

£0Revenue from Locational Sells and PRI Charges

-£28,930Non-Obligated Sales Revenue (Entry only)

-£80,220Entry Capacity Overrun Revenue (As at September 13)

£0Total Entry Constraint Management Operational Costs

-£401,252WDDSEC/DAI Entry Capacity Revenue

Revenue/Costs

Page 9: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

9

Capacity NeutralityRevenues from WDDSEC and DAIFrom 1st April 2013 to 31st October 2013

ST FERGUS -£157,052

TEESSIDE -£10,755

BARROW £0

THEDDLETHORPE -£8,599

EASINGTON -£180,096

BACTON -£44,745

OTHER -£5

Net Revenue -£401,252

Capacity Neutrality

Revenues from WDDSEC and DAI

April 2013 to October 2013

£5,000

£25,000

£45,000

£65,000

£85,000

£105,000

£125,000

£145,000

£165,000

£185,000

St Ferg

usTees

side

Bar

row

Theddleth

orpe

Easin

gton

Bac

ton

Oth

er

Page 10: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

10

Capacity NeutralityRevenues from Entry Cap Overruns and Non-Obligated Sales,and Locational Sells and PRI Charges. Totals From 1st April 2013 to 31st October 2013

£0 (FY13/14)Total

-Mar-14

-Feb-14

-Jan-14

-Dec-13

-Nov-13

£0Oct-13

£0Sep-13

£0Aug-13

£0Jul-13

£0Jun-13

£0May-13

£0Apr-13

Locational Sells and PRI charges revenue

Month

Total

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

Dec-13

Nov-13

Oct-13

Sep-13

Aug-13

Jul-13

Jun-13

May-13

Apr-13

Month

-£28,930 (FY13-14)-£80,220 (FY13-14)

--

--

--

--

--

-£28,755NOT YET AVAILABLE

--£11,538

--£6,080

--£16,257

--£33,996

--£7,376

-£175-£4,972

Non-obligated sales revenue

(entry)

Entry Cap Overrun Revenue

Page 11: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

Operational Overview

Page 12: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

12

National Composite Weather October to Dec 2013 vs. Historical Range

Page 13: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

13

Mean Composite Weather Variables October & November 2013 vs. Previous Yrs

Mean National Composite Weather for October

Page 14: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

Demands

Page 15: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

15

Gas Demand Breakdown1st June 2013 to 1st Dec 2013 vs. 2012

Gas Demand Breakdown

1st June 2013 to 1st December 2013 vs 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

01-J

un

-13

08-J

un

-13

15-J

un

-13

22-J

un

-13

29-J

un

-13

06-J

ul-

13

13-J

ul-

13

20-J

ul-

13

27-J

ul-

13

03-A

ug

-13

10-A

ug

-13

17-A

ug

-13

24-A

ug

-13

31-A

ug

-13

07-S

ep

-13

14-S

ep

-13

21-S

ep

-13

28-S

ep

-13

05-O

ct-

13

12-O

ct-

13

19-O

ct-

13

26-O

ct-

13

02-N

ov-1

3

09-N

ov-1

3

16-N

ov-1

3

23-N

ov-1

3

30-N

ov-1

3

mcm

NDM DM (Excl Interconnectors) Total Interconnector Export Storage Injection

SND Cold Demand Warm Demand Previous Years Demand

Page 16: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

16

LD

Z D

em

an

d1st O

ct 2

013 to

3rd

Decem

ber 2

013

Ga

s D

em

an

d B

rea

kd

ow

n [L

DZ

20

13

vs

20

12

] vs

NT

S D

em

an

d / C

WV

's

1s

t Ju

ne

20

13

to 3

rd D

ec

em

be

r 20

13

0

50

100

150

20

0

25

0

30

0

35

0

01-Jun-13

08-Jun-13

15-Jun-13

22-Jun-13

29-Jun-13

06-Jul-13

13-Jul-13

20-Jul-13

27-Jul-13

03-Aug-13

10-Aug-13

17-Aug-13

24-Aug-13

31-Aug-13

07-Sep-13

14-Sep-13

21-Sep-13

28-Sep-13

05-Oct-13

12-Oct-13

19-Oct-13

26-Oct-13

02-Nov-13

09-Nov-13

16-Nov-13

23-Nov-13

30-Nov-13

Ga

s D

ay

mcm

0 2 4 6 8 10

12

14

16

18

LD

Z D

em

and 2

013

LD

Z D

em

and 2

012

NT

S D

em

and 2

013

CW

V 2

013

Page 17: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

17

NDM Historic Demand and 2013/14 Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mc

m/d

Upper/Lower Percentile Range Average

217mcm

61mcm

135mcm

Page 18: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

18

Power GenerationOctober 2013 to November 2013

Page 19: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

19

Historic Power Gen Demand & 2013/14 Forecast

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mc

m/d

Upper/Lower Percentile Range Average

60mcm

18mcm

38mcm

Page 20: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

20

LDZ Power

Station IUK Moffat Storage Industrial

2012/2013 163.5 38.9 0.8 16.5 9.4 11.7

2013/2014 140.3 36.2 4.1 15.8 14.0 8.6

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

mcm

/d

13/14

Average Daily Demand by TypeOctober/November – 2012/13 vs. 2013/14

Page 21: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

Supplies

Page 22: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

22

Gas Supply Breakdown 1st Oct 2013 to 3rd December 2013

Gas Supply Breakdown

1st October 2013 to 3rd December 2013 vs 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

01-J

un

-13

08-J

un

-13

15-J

un

-13

22-J

un

-13

29-J

un

-13

06-J

ul-

13

13-J

ul-

13

20-J

ul-

13

27-J

ul-

13

03-A

ug

-13

10-A

ug

-13

17-A

ug

-13

24-A

ug

-13

31-A

ug

-13

07

-Sep

-13

14

-Sep

-13

21

-Sep

-13

28

-Sep

-13

05-O

ct-

13

12-O

ct-

13

19-O

ct-

13

26-O

ct-

13

02-N

ov

-13

09-N

ov

-13

16-N

ov

-13

23-N

ov

-13

30-N

ov

-13

Gas Day

mc

m/d

UKCS Norway (est) LNG Imports

BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies

MRS Supplies SRS Supplies Previous Year Actual Supply

Page 23: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

23

Average Daily Supply by TypeOctober/November – 2012/13 vs. 2013/14

UKCS Norway LNGStorage

WithdrawalBBL IUK

2012/2013 90.0 91.0 18.2 9.1 20.7 14.0

2013/2014 86.5 81.5 24.8 8.6 21.6 4.4

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

av

era

ge

mcm

/d

Page 24: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

24

Winter 2012/13 Summer

Isle Of GrainMilford Haven

St. Fergus

Teesside

Theddlethorpe

Easington

(inc. Rough )

Bacton

Burton Point

Barrow

Average Supplies by LocationOctober/November 2013

Page 25: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

25

UKCS Historic Flows and 2013/14 Forecast

0

50

100

150

200

250

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mcm

/d

Max Winter Range Winter average Average UKCS on days above 400 Cold Day

110mcm

72mcm

88mcm

Page 26: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

26

Gas Supply Breakdown – IUK1st October 2013 to 2nd December 2013

IUK Export / Import volumes Oct - Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

01

-Oct

03

-Oct

05

-Oct

07

-Oct

09

-Oct

11

-Oct

13

-Oct

15

-Oct

17

-Oct

19

-Oct

21

-Oct

23

-Oct

25

-Oct

27

-Oct

29

-Oct

31

-Oct

02-N

ov

04-N

ov

06-N

ov

08-N

ov

10-N

ov

12-N

ov

14-N

ov

16-N

ov

18-N

ov

20-N

ov

22-N

ov

24-N

ov

26-N

ov

28-N

ov

30-N

ov

02-D

ec

Vo

lum

es

(m

cm

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

pri

ce

(p

/tm

)

IUK Export IUK Import IUK Import [Previous Year] IUK Export [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

Page 27: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

27

IUK Historic Flows & 2013/14 Forecast

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mcm

/d

Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average IUK on days above 400 Cold Day

27mcm

-20mcm

1mcm

Page 28: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

28

Gas Supply Breakdown – LNG1st October 2013 to 2nd December 2013

LNG terminal flows Oct - Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

01

-Oct

03

-Oct

05

-Oct

07

-Oct

09

-Oct

11

-Oct

13

-Oct

15

-Oct

17

-Oct

19

-Oct

21

-Oct

23

-Oct

25

-Oct

27

-Oct

29

-Oct

31

-Oct

02

-No

v

04

-No

v

06

-No

v

08

-No

v

10

-No

v

12

-No

v

14

-No

v

16

-No

v

18

-No

v

20

-No

v

22

-No

v

24

-No

v

26

-No

v

28

-No

v

30

-No

v

02

-De

c

Volu

me

s (

mcm

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pri

ce

(p

/th

)

SouthHookTer DragonTer Isle of grain

DragonTer [Previous Year] Isle of grain [Previous Year] SouthHookTer [Previous Year]

SAP SAP [Previous Year]

Page 29: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

29

LNG Historic Flows and 2013/14 Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mcm

/d

Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average LNG on days above 400 Cold Day

41mcm

8mcm

23mcm

Page 30: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

30

Gas S

up

ply

Bre

akd

ow

n –

LN

GD

eliv

erie

s

0 5

10

15

20

25

30

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

Jan-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

20

10

/11

20

11

/12

20

12

/13

20

13

/14

Boat Deliveries

LNG

De

live

ries

Qa

tar

Alg

eria

Eg

yp

tM

.EN

ige

riaN

orw

ay

Trinid

ad

UA

EU

nk

no

wn

US

AYe

me

n

20

11

Jap

an

Tsu

na

mi

Page 31: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

31

Gas Supply Breakdown – Norway1st October 2013 to 2nd December 2013

Norwegian* supply volumes Oct - Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

01-O

ct

04-O

ct

07-O

ct

10-O

ct

13-O

ct

16-O

ct

19-O

ct

22-O

ct

25-O

ct

28-O

ct

31-O

ct

03-N

ov

06-N

ov

09-N

ov

12-N

ov

15-N

ov

18-N

ov

21-N

ov

24-N

ov

27-N

ov

30-N

ov

Vo

lum

es (

mcm

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Pri

ce

(p

/th

)

Norway* Norway* [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

Page 32: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

32

Norwegian Pipeline System

Page 33: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

33

Production Flows

Page 34: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

34

Norwegian Historic Flows and 2012/13 Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mcm

/d

Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average for days above 400 Cold Day

121mcm

47mcm

84mcm

Page 35: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

35

Gas Supply Breakdown – Storage1st October 2013 to 2nd December 2013

Storage flows Oct - Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

01

-Oct

04

-Oct

07

-Oct

10

-Oct

13

-Oct

16

-Oct

19

-Oct

22

-Oct

25

-Oct

28

-Oct

31

-Oct

03

-No

v

06

-No

v

09

-No

v

12

-No

v

15

-No

v

18

-No

v

21

-No

v

24

-No

v

27

-No

v

30

-No

v

Vo

lum

es (

mcm

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Price

(p

/tm

)

Storage Storage [Previous Year] SAP SAP [Previous Year]

Page 36: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

36

Storage Historic Flows and 2013/14 Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Forecast

mcm

/d

Capacity Winter Range Winter average Average Storage on days above 400

48mcm

0mcm

10mcm

Page 37: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

37

Storage Stocks - UK1st Oct 2013 to 4th December 2013 Vs Previous Years

SRS Stocks

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Se

p

TW

h

MRS 2010/2011 SRS 2011/2012 SRS 2012/2013 SRS 2013/2014

MRS Stocks

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

TW

h

MRS 2010/2011 MRS 2011/2012 MRS 2012/2013 MRS 2013/2014

LRS Stocks

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

TW

h

LRS 2010/2011 LRS 2011/2012 LRS 2012/2013 LRS 2013/2014

Page 38: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

38

201

2/1

3 R

efle

ctio

nS

tora

ge S

tocks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

0

01-Apr05-Apr09-Apr13-Apr17-Apr21-Apr25-Apr29-Apr

03-May07-May11-May15-May19-May23-May27-May31-May04-Jun08-Jun12-Jun16-Jun20-Jun24-Jun28-Jun02-Jul06-Jul10-Jul14-Jul18-Jul22-Jul26-Jul30-Jul

03-Aug07-Aug11-Aug15-Aug19-Aug23-Aug27-Aug31-Aug04-Sep08-Sep12-Sep16-Sep20-Sep24-Sep28-Sep02-Oct06-Oct10-Oct14-Oct18-Oct22-Oct26-Oct30-Oct03-Nov07-Nov11-Nov15-Nov19-Nov23-Nov27-Nov01-Dec05-Dec09-Dec13-Dec17-Dec21-Dec25-Dec29-Dec

Net Storage Injection (mcm)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Storage Stock Percentage Full

Ro

ug

hH

um

ble

y G

rove

Hatfie

ld M

oo

rH

orn

se

aH

olfo

rdH

ole

ho

us

e F

arm

Ald

bro

ug

hA

vo

nm

ou

thL

RS

% F

ull 2

012

MR

S %

Fu

ll 2012

SR

S %

Fu

ll 2012

LR

S a

t Max In

j

MR

S @

Max In

jS

RS

@ M

ax In

jL

RS

% F

ull 2

013

MR

S %

Fu

ll 2013

SR

S %

Fu

ll 2013

Page 39: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

39

Storage Stocks - EUFrom 1st Oct 2013 to 30th November 2013 vs. Previous Years

Total EU Weekly Storage Levels

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Oct

No

v

De

c

Ja

n

Fe

b

Ma

r

Ap

r

Ma

y

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Se

p

Date

mc

m

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014

Hub Area Stock Level (mcm) % Full

Baumgarten 11268 66%

Germany 17605 83%

Iberian 2190 76%

NBP 4460 94%

France 8329 67%

PSV 13619 82%

SOUTH-EAST 392 71%

TTF (Eurohub) 1691 82%

ZEE 525 74%

Total Hubs 60080 77%

Stocklevel Status at 06:00CET on

Wed 04/12/2013

Page 40: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

40

Supply Ranges

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

UKCS Norway BBL IUK LNG Imports

mcm

/d

Range Cold Day

110mcm

72mcm

88mcm

121mcm

47mcm

84mcm

27mcm

1mcm

41mcm

8mcm

23mcm

38mcm

2mcm

22mcm

Page 41: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

41

UK

Gas P

rices

Sy

stem

Price

s

1st Ja

n 2

01

3 to

4th

De

cem

be

r 20

13

Vs P

rev

iou

s Ye

ars S

AP

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

0

11

0

12

0

13

0

01-Jan-13

15-Jan-13

29-Jan-13

12-Feb-13

26-Feb-13

12-Mar-13

26-Mar-13

09-Apr-13

23-Apr-13

07-May-13

21-May-13

04-Jun-13

18-Jun-13

02-Jul-13

16-Jul-13

30-Jul-13

13-Aug-13

27-Aug-13

10-Sep-13

24-Sep-13

08-Oct-13

22-Oct-13

05-Nov-13

19-Nov-13

03-Dec-13

p/therm

SA

PS

MP

Bu

yS

MP

Se

llS

AP

Pre

vio

us

Ye

ar

Page 42: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

42

Actual Linepack

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Wit

hin

Day R

an

ge o

f L

inep

ack (

mcm

)

Comparison of Within Day Max-Min Range of NTS Linepack (mcm)

Range of Linepack 2002/03 Rolling 30 Day Average Range 2002/03

Range of Linepack 2007/08 Rolling 30 Day Average Range 2007/08

Range of Linepack 2012/13 Rolling 30 Day Average Range 2012/13

Range of Linepack 2013/14 Rolling 30 Day Average Range 2013/14

Page 43: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

43

43

06:00

07:00

08:00

09:00

10:00

11:00

12:00

13:00

14:00

15:00

16:00

17:00

18:00

19:00

20:00

21:00

22:00

23:00

00:00

01:00

02:00

03:00

04:00

05:00

Oct 2

013 A

v.

Oct 2

012 A

v.

No

v 2

013 A

v.

No

v 2

012 A

v.

Su

pp

ly P

rofilin

g

Page 44: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

4444

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

01

Oc

t

04

Oc

t

07

Oc

t

10

Oc

t

13

Oc

t

16

Oc

t

19

Oc

t

22

Oc

t

25

Oc

t

28

Oc

t

31

Oc

t

03

No

v

06

No

v

09

No

v

12

No

v

15

No

v

18

No

v

21

No

v

24

No

v

27

No

v

30

No

v

% C

ha

ng

e f

rom

1/2

4 r

ate

Langeled Flow variation (Oct13-Nov13)6 Hourly Average

06:00 - 12:00 12:00 - 18:00 18:00 - 00:00 00:00 - 06:00

Supply Profiling

Page 45: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

45

Interesting Week…WC. 11th November 2013

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

380

11/11/2013 12/11/2013 13/11/2013 14/11/2013 15/11/2013 16/11/2013 17/11/2013

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

06

:00

12

:00

18

:00

00

:00

Lin

ep

ac

k (m

cm

)Tra

de

s (m

cm

)

Sells Buys Actual National Linepack Opening LinePack PCLP

Page 46: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

46

Page 47: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

NTS Constraint Management Actions

Page 48: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

48

Constraint Management Actions

48

To support industry preparations for the winter period National Grid NTS hosted a web based live meeting aimed at

providing NTS users with a refresh of the constraint management tools available to National Grid NTS.

The presentation and supporting audio file can be found here.

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-transmission-system-operations/capacity/constraint-management/

A number of the constraint tools coved in the presentation above are reliant on user actions and or a response,

these are;

1.

Locational Energy Actions

At the request of NG NTS OCM subscribers can trade gas (buy or sell) with NG NTS

2.

Entry or Exit Capacity Surrender

At the request of NG NTS users with Firm Capacity entitlements, at the notified locations, can offer capacity surrenders via the Gemini application

3.

Capacity Scalebacks

NG NTS may at time Scaleback Interruptible Entry or Off-peak Exit

capacity at either D-1 or D

User participation & response required User response required if appropriate

ANS will be used to communicate the requirements for the three processes above.

ANS publications will also be displayed on Prevailing view

Page 49: System Management Principles Statement - National Grid · System Management Principles Statement ... BBL I(UK) LRS Supplies MRS ... Dec 2013 vs Previous Year / SAP -70-50-30-10 10

49

Constraint Management Actions (cont)

In addition to the Live meeting slides additional supporting information can also be

viewed via the link below. The information displayed also offers a document download

option. Each download provides an overview of the process steps to follow should you

wish to respond to a NG NTS constraint action

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/uk/industry-information/gas-transmission-system-

operations/capacity/constraint-management/

Other useful information can be viewed here;

System Management Principles Statement

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Business-

compliance/Procurement-and-System-Management-Documents/

Exit Capacity Release Methodology Statement

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Gas-capacity-

methodologies/Exit-Capacity-Release-Methodology-Statement/

For more information or if you have any questions please contact

[email protected] or 01926 654058.